2017 Oscar Nomination Predictions (October)

October 10, 2017 by Andrew Carden in Oscars

What up, my fellow Oscar lovers?

Over the past month, since my September predictions, a host of developments have transpired in this roller coaster ride of an awards season:

Trailers were released for a batch of contenders - All the Money in the World, The Meyerowitz Stories, Roman J. Israel, Esq., Star Wars: The Last Jedi and Wonder Wheel
Oscar hopefuls Battle of the Sexes and Stronger opened to solid critical notices - will, however, they be showered in awards love beyond for Emma Stone and Jake Gyllenhaal? Likewise, will Victoria and Abdul, the recipient of more lukewarm acclaim than those pictures, make much of a mark at all come awards time? (Note, however, that Victoria is faring better at the box office than the other two pics.)
Speaking of box office, Blade Runner 2049, despite glowing reviews, is struggling a make bank. With lackluster receipts, can the Harrison Ford-Ryan Gosling flick really be a major Oscar contender, beyond the technical categories?
Darren Aronofsky's mother! (a film I for one adored) polarized critics upon hitting theaters and managed to net that elusive F grade over at CinemaScore. Folks who thought this might just be Michelle Pfeiffer's year probably ought to move on. :(
In a move that shakes up Lead and Supporting Actor forecasts, Bryan Cranston shall be campaigned in the latter category for Last Flag Flying, with Steve Carell the sole Lead push and Laurence Fishburne (as expected) also in Supporting.
Sony Pictures Classics has picked up The Wife for distribution...in 2018. Fingers crossed for six-time Oscar nominee/legend Glenn Close next year!
Entertainment Studios has picked up the Christian Bale drama Hostiles for distribution this year. The picture, which won warm notices at the Telluride Film Festival, joins Chappaquiddick as the distributor's awards season pushes.

No doubt, I'm forgetting something of significance that recently went down.

Please see below my latest set of Oscar predictions, for the month of October. In parentheses you will find how many spots a contender has moved up or down since my last rankings. In some cases, I have dropped a film or performer entirely. Also, this marks the first month I am attempting predictions in both Documentary Feature and Foreign Language Film.

Have fun reading and, as always, feel free to comment with your own thoughts too!

Best Picture

Dunkirk (-)
The Shape of Water (-)
The Post (+2)
Darkest Hour (-1)
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (NEW)
Call Me By Your Name (-2)
The Florida Project (-)
Mudbound (-)
The Disaster Artist (NEW)
---
Coco (+1)
Phantom Thread (+3)
Lady Bird (+3)
The Big Sick (NEW)
Get Out (NEW)
Wonder Wheel (-6)

DROPPED
Last Flag Flying (-10)
Battle of the Sexes (-6)
Blade Runner 2049 (-3)

Best Director

Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (-)
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (-)
Steven Spielberg, The Post (+2)
Joe Wright, Darkest Hour (-1)
Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (NEW)
---
Luca Guadagnino, Call Me By Your Name (-2)
Dee Rees, Mudbound (-1)
Sean Baker, The Florida Project (NEW)
Denis Villeneuve, Blade Runner 2049 (-2)
Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (-2)

DROPPED
Woody Allen, Wonder Wheel (-2)
Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris, Battle of the Sexes (-1)

Best Lead Actor

Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (-)
Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name (-)
Tom Hanks, The Post (+5)
Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (-1)
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (-1)
---
Andrew Garfield, Breathe (-1)
James Franco, The Disaster Artist (-1)
Steve Carell, Last Flag Flying (-)
Harry Dean Stanton, Lucky (NEW)
Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (-)

DROPPED
Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying (-7)

Best Lead Actress

Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (+1)
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (+1)
Meryl Streep, The Post (+3)
Jessica Chastain, Molly's Game (-)
Judi Dench, Victoria & Abdul (+4)
---
Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (-1)
Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (-6)
Annette Bening, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool (-1)
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (-1)
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (NEW)

DROPPED
Glenn Close, The Wife (-2)

Best Supporting Actor

Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (-)
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (+2)
Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me By Your Name (-1)
Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (+2)
Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour (-2)
---
Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name (+1)
Dustin Hoffman, The Meyerowitz Stories (NEW)
Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying (NEW)
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (-1)
Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (-)

DROPPED
Laurence Fishburne, Last Flag Flying (-5)
Idris Elba, Molly's Game (-2)

Best Supporting Actress

Melissa Leo, Novitiate (-)
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (+1)
Allison Janney, I, Tonya (+3)
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (-2)
Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour (-)
---
Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (-2)
Tatiana Maslany, Stronger (NEW)
Claire Foy, Breathe (NEW)
Hong Chau, Downsizing (-1)
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (-)

DROPPED
Michelle Pfeiffer, mother! (-4)
Julianne Moore, Wonderstruck (-2)

Best Original Screenplay

Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (+2)
Anthony McCarten, Darkest Hour (-1)
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (-1)
Liz Hannah and Josh Singer, The Post (NEW)
Sean Baker and Chris Bergoch, The Florida Project (-)
---
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (-)
Woody Allen, Wonder Wheel (-3)
Emily V. Gordon and Kumail Nanjiani, The Big Sick (-1)
Jordan Peele, Get Out (-)
Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (-2)

DROPPED
Simon Beaufoy, Battle of the Sexes (-1)

Best Adapted Screenplay

James Ivory, Call Me By Your Name (-)
Dee Rees and Virgil Williams, Mudbound (-)
Angelina Jolie and Loung Ung, First They Killed My Father (NEW)
Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber, The Disaster Artist (-)
Richard Linklater and Darryl Ponicsan, Last Flag Flying (-2)
---
Aaron Sorkin, Molly's Game (-)
Sofia Coppola, The Beguiled (-1)
John Pollono, Stronger (NEW)
Jason Fuchs, Allan Heinberg, William Moulton Marston and Zack Snyder, Wonder Woman (NEW)
Matt Greenhalgh and Peter Turner, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool (NEW)

DROPPED
Peter Fellos, Armando Iannucci, Ian Martin, Fabien Nury, Theirry Robin and David Schneider, The Death of Stalin (-5)
Hampton Fancher and Michael Green, Blade Runner 2049 (-4)
Andrew Haigh, Lean on Pete (-3)

Best Animated Feature

Coco (-)
Loving Vincent (-)
The Breadwinner (-)
The Girl Without Hands (NEW)
Cars 3 (-1)
---
Despicable Me 3 (-1)
Ferdinand (-1)
The Lego Batman Movie (-1)
Mary and the Witch's Flower (NEW)
The Lego Ninjago (-2)

DROPPED
Leap! (-2)
Captain Underpants (-1)

Best Documentary Feature

City of Ghosts
Faces, Place
Ex Libris
Hell on Earth
Risk
---
Cries from Syria
L.A. 92
The Life and Death of Marsha P. Johnson
Abacus
Joan Didion: The Center Will Not Hold

Best Foreign Language Film

First They Killed My Father (Cambodia)
A Fantastic Woman (Chile)
A Letter to the President (Afghanistan)
Her Love Boils Bathwater (Japan)
A Taxi Driver (South Korea)
---
In the Fade (Germany)
The Square (Sweden)
Scary Mother (Georgia)
The Train of Salt and Sugar (Mozambique)
Summer 1993 (Spain)

Best Cinematography

Hoyte Van Hoytema, Dunkirk (-)
Roger Deakins, Blade Runner 2049 (-)
Dan Laustsen, The Shape of Water (+1)
Bruno Delbonnel, Darkest Hour (-2)
Vittorio Storaro, Wonder Wheel (+2)
---
Janusz Kaminski, The Post (-1)
Sayombhu Mukdeeprom, Call Me By Your Name (-2)
Rachel Morrison, Mudbound (-)
Edward Lachman, Wonderstruck (-)
Masanobu Takayanagi, Hostiles (-)

Best Costume Design

Jacqueline Durran, Darkest Hour (-)
Ellen Miojnick, The Greatest Showman (+3)
Jacqueline Durran, Beauty and the Beast (+3)
Consolata Boyle, Victoria & Abdul (-2)
Sandy Powell, Wonderstruck (-2)
---
Alexandra Byrne and Timothy Everest, Murder on the Orient Express (+1)
Mark Bridges, Phantom Thread (-3)
Suzy Benzinger, Wonder Wheel (NEW)
Ann Roth, The Post (-1)
Lindy Hemming, Wonder Woman (-1)

DROPPED
Mary Zophres, Battle of the Sexes (-1)

Best Film Editing

Lee Smith, Dunkirk (-)
Sidney Wolinsky, The Shape of Water (-)
Michael Kahn, The Post (+1)
Valerio Bonelli, Darkest Hour (-1)
Jon Gregory, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (NEW)
---
Bob Ducsay, Star Wars: The Last Jedi (-1)
William Hoy and Stan Salfas, War for the Planet of the Apes (-1)
Joe Walker, Blade Runner 2049 (-)
Mako Kamitsuna, Mudbound (+1)
Walter Fasano, Call Me By Your Name (-1)

DROPPED
Pamela Martin, Battle of the Sexes (-4)

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Anita Burger, David Malinkowski and Lucy Sibbick, Darkest Hour (-)
Paula Fleet and Patricia Keighran, The Shape of Water (-)
Sunday English, Gary English, Nicki Ledermann, Angela Levin,Gary Martori, Jerry Popolis, Rania Ribalow, Pamela S. Westmore and Nakoya Yancey, The Greatest Showman (+4)
---
Flora Moody and Allison Sing, Star Wars: The Last Jedi (-1)
Alexis Continente, Carol Hemming, Dana Kalder, Jutta Russell, Chiara Ugolini and Wakana Yoshihara, Murder on the Orient Express (+3)
Lizza Lawson, Jo-Ann MacNiel and Donald Mowat, Blade Runner 2049 (-2)
Mary Everett, Bill Myer and Teresa Vest, I, Tonya (NEW)
Jacqueline Bhavnani, Samantha Denyer, Sarah Kelly and Bradley Simms, Beauty and the Beast (-3)
Haruyo Sawada and Torsten Witte, Battle of the Sexes (-3)
Sarah Craig, Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram, Debra Manou, Emily O'Quinn and Sean Sansom, It (-)

DROPPED
Jerry DeCarlo and Claus Lulla, Wonderstruck (-3)

Best Original Score

Alexandre Desplat, The Shape of Water (-)
Dario Marianelli, Darkest Hour (+1)
John Williams, Star Wars: The Last Jedi (+1)
Hans Zimmer, Dunkirk (-2)
Thomas Newman, Victoria & Abdul (-)
---
Carter Burwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (NEW)
Michael Giacchino, Coco (NEW)
John Williams, The Post (-2)
Hans Zimmer, Blade Runner 2049 (-2)
John Debney, Benj Pasek and Justin Paul, The Greatest Showman (-)

DROPPED
Carter Burwell, Wonderstruck (-3)
Dustin O'Halloran, The Current War (-1)

Best Production Design

Nathan Crowley, Dunkirk (-)
Paul D. Austerberry, The Shape of Water (-)
Sarah Greenwood, Darkest Hour (-)
Dennis Gassner, Blade Runner 2049 (-)
David J. Bomba, Mudbound (-)
---
Nathan Crowley, The Greatest Showman (-)
Santo Loquasto, Wonder Wheel (NEW)
Aline Bonetto, Wonder Woman (-1)
Rick Heinrichs, Star Wars: The Last Jedi (-1)
Rick Carter, The Post (-1)

DROPPED
Sarah Finley and Adam Squires, Victoria & Abdul (-2)

Best Sound Editing

Richard King, Dunkirk (-)
Matthew Wood, Star Wars: The Last Jedi (-)
Will Files, War for the Planet of the Apes (-)
Nathan Robitaille, The Shape of Water (-)
Julian Slater, Baby Driver (+1)
---
Theo Green and Mark A. Mangini, Blade Runner 2049 (-1)
Justin Doyle, Coco (+3)
James Mather, Wonder Woman (-1)
Scott Hecker, Hostiles (-1)
Richard Hymns, The Post (-1)

Best Sound Mixing

Gregg Landaker, Gary Rizzo and Mark Weingarten, Dunkirk (-)
David Parker and Michael Semanchick, Star Wars: The Last Jedi (-)
Christian T. Cooke, Filip Hosek and Brad Zoern, The Shape of Water (-)
Bill Bair, Will Files, Tom Lalley, Douglas Murray and Andy Nelson, War for the Planet of the Apes (-)
Christopher Boyes and Michael Semanchick, Coco (+5)
---
Ron Barlett, Doug Hemphill and Mac Ruth, Blade Runner 2049 (-1)
Gary Rydstrom,The Post (+1)
Paul Munro, Wonder Woman (-1)
Tim Cavagin and Julian Slater, Baby Driver (+1)
Craig Berkey and Roger J. Sacdalan, Darkest Hour (-2)

Best Visual Effects

Richard Bain, Ben Morris and Michael Mulholland, Star Wars: The Last Jedi (-)
Dennis Berardi and Kristen Bligh, The Shape of Water (-)
Ryan Cook, Dan Lemmon, Joe Letteri and Erik Winquist, War for the Planet of the Apes (-)
Richard Clegg, Paul Lambert, Victor Muller and John Nelson, Blade Runner 2049 (-)
Andrew Jackson, Andrew Lockley and Tim McGovern, Dunkirk (-)
---
Frazer Churchill, Viktor Muller, Jessica Norman and Bill Westenhofer, Wonder Woman (-)
Kyle McCulloch, David Piombino, Kelly Port and Glen Pratt, Beauty and the Beast (-)
Vincent Cirelli, Jake Morrison, Brendan Seals, Alexis Wajsbrot and Chad Wiebe,Thor: Ragnarok (+2)
Dan Bethell, Theodore Bialek, Vincent Cirelli, Lou Pecora and Doug Spilatro, Spider-Man: Homecoming (-1)
Matthew Crnich, Ray McMaster, Kevin Andrew Smith, Doug Spilatro and Christopher Townsend, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (-1)

Angelina Jolie's First They Killed My Father is among the 92 pictures that will vie for Oscar consideration in Best Foreign Language Film. — Angelina Jolie's *First They Killed My Father* is among the 92 pictures that will vie for Oscar consideration in Best Foreign Language Film.

2017 Foreign Language Film Oscar Submissions

October 05, 2017 by Andrew Carden in Oscars

This year, a record 92 countries have submitted pictures for Oscar consideration in Best Foreign Language Film. They are:

Afghanistan, “A Letter to the President,” Roya Sadat, director;
Albania, “Daybreak,” Gentian Koçi, director;
Algeria, “Road to Istanbul,” Rachid Bouchareb, director;
Argentina, “Zama,” Lucrecia Martel, director;
Armenia, “Yeva,” Anahit Abad, director;
Australia, “The Space Between,” Ruth Borgobello, director;
Austria, “Happy End,” Michael Haneke, director;
Azerbaijan, “Pomegranate Orchard,” Ilgar Najaf, director;
Bangladesh, “The Cage,” Akram Khan, director;
Belgium, “Racer and the Jailbird,” Michaël R. Roskam, director;
Bolivia, “Dark Skull,” Kiro Russo, director;
Bosnia and Herzegovina, “Men Don’t Cry,” Alen Drljević, director;
Brazil, “Bingo - The King of the Mornings,” Daniel Rezende, director;
Bulgaria, “Glory,” Petar Valchanov, Kristina Grozeva, directors;
Cambodia, “First They Killed My Father,” Angelina Jolie, director;
Canada, “Hochelaga, Land of Souls,” François Girard, director;
Chile, “A Fantastic Woman,” Sebastián Lelio, director;
China, “Wolf Warrior 2,” Wu Jing, director;
Colombia, “Guilty Men,” Iván D. Gaona, director;
Costa Rica, “The Sound of Things,” Ariel Escalante, director;
Croatia, “Quit Staring at My Plate,” Hana Jušić, director;
Czech Republic, “Ice Mother,” Bohdan Sláma, director;
Denmark, “You Disappear,” Peter Schønau Fog, director;
Dominican Republic, “Woodpeckers,” Jose Maria Cabral, director;
Ecuador, “Alba,” Ana Cristina Barragán, director;
Egypt, “Sheikh Jackson,” Amr Salama, director;
Estonia, “November,” Rainer Sarnet, director;
Finland, “Tom of Finland,” Dome Karukoski, director;
France, “BPM (Beats Per Minute),” Robin Campillo, director;
Georgia, “Scary Mother,” Ana Urushadze, director;
Germany, “In the Fade,” Fatih Akin, director;
Greece, “Amerika Square,” Yannis Sakaridis, director;
Haiti, “Ayiti Mon Amour,” Guetty Felin, director;
Honduras, “Morazán,” Hispano Durón, director;
Hong Kong, “Mad World,” Wong Chun, director;
Hungary, “On Body and Soul,” Ildikó Enyedi, director;
Iceland, “Under the Tree,” Hafsteinn Gunnar Sigurðsson, director;
India, “Newton,” Amit V Masurkar, director;
Indonesia, “Turah,” Wicaksono Wisnu Legowo, director;
Iran, “Breath,” Narges Abyar, director;
Iraq, “Reseba - The Dark Wind,” Hussein Hassan, director;
Ireland, “Song of Granite,” Pat Collins, director;
Israel, “Foxtrot,” Samuel Maoz, director;
Italy, “A Ciambra,” Jonas Carpignano, director;
Japan, “Her Love Boils Bathwater,” Ryota Nakano, director;
Kazakhstan, “The Road to Mother,” Akhan Satayev, director;
Kenya, “Kati Kati,” Mbithi Masya, director;
Kosovo, “Unwanted,” Edon Rizvanolli, director;
Kyrgyzstan, “Centaur,” Aktan Arym Kubat, director;
Lao People’s Democratic Republic, “Dearest Sister,” Mattie Do, director;
Latvia, “The Chronicles of Melanie,” Viestur Kairish, director;
Lebanon, “The Insult,” Ziad Doueiri, director;
Lithuania, “Frost,” Sharunas Bartas, director;
Luxembourg, “Barrage,” Laura Schroeder, director;
Mexico, “Tempestad,” Tatiana Huezo, director;
Mongolia, “The Children of Genghis,” Zolbayar Dorj, director;
Morocco, “Razzia,” Nabil Ayouch, director;
Mozambique, “The Train of Salt and Sugar,” Licinio Azevedo, director;
Nepal, “White Sun,” Deepak Rauniyar, director;
Netherlands, “Layla M.,” Mijke de Jong, director;
New Zealand, “One Thousand Ropes,” Tusi Tamasese, director;
Norway, “Thelma,” Joachim Trier, director;
Pakistan, “Saawan,” Farhan Alam, director;
Palestine, “Wajib,” Annemarie Jacir, director;
Panama, “Beyond Brotherhood,” Arianne Benedetti, director;
Paraguay, “Los Buscadores,” Juan Carlos Maneglia, Tana Schembori, directors;
Peru, “Rosa Chumbe,” Jonatan Relayze, director;
Philippines, “Birdshot,” Mikhail Red, director;
Poland, “Spoor,” Agnieszka Holland, Kasia Adamik, directors;
Portugal, “Saint George,” Marco Martins, director;
Romania, “Fixeur,” Adrian Sitaru, director;
Russia, “Loveless,” Andrey Zvyagintsev, director;
Senegal, “Félicité,” Alain Gomis, director;
Serbia, “Requiem for Mrs. J.,” Bojan Vuletic, director;
Singapore, “Pop Aye,” Kirsten Tan, director;
Slovakia, “The Line,” Peter Bebjak, director;
Slovenia, “The Miner,” Hanna A. W. Slak, director;
South Africa, “The Wound,” John Trengove, director;
South Korea, “A Taxi Driver,” Jang Hoon, director;
Spain, “Summer 1993,” Carla Simón, director;
Sweden, “The Square,” Ruben Östlund, director;
Switzerland, “The Divine Order,” Petra Volpe, director;
Syria, “Little Gandhi,” Sam Kadi, director;
Taiwan, “Small Talk,” Hui-Chen Huang, director;
Thailand, “By the Time It Gets Dark,” Anocha Suwichakornpong, director;
Tunisia, “The Last of Us,” Ala Eddine Slim, director;
Turkey, “Ayla: The Daughter of War,” Can Ulkay, director;
Ukraine, “Black Level,” Valentyn Vasyanovych, director;
United Kingdom, “My Pure Land,” Sarmad Masud, director;
Uruguay, “Another Story of the World,” Guillermo Casanova, director;
Venezuela, “El Inca,” Ignacio Castillo Cottin, director;
Vietnam, “Father and Son,” Luong Dinh Dung, director.

2017 Oscar Nomination Predictions (September)

September 18, 2017 by Andrew Carden in Oscars

Howdy, fellow film fans!

Over the past two months, since my first set of Oscar predictions for the year, a plethora of events have gone down is what is shaping up to be one hell of an awards season:

Trailers dropped for a bunch of contenders - Call Me By Your Name, The Current War, Darkest Hour, The Disaster Artist, Downsizing, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool, The Florida Project, The Killing of a Sacred Deer, Lady Bird, Last Flag Flying, Molly's Game, mother!, Mudbound, Novitiate, The Shape of Water and Suburbicon.
The Telluride, Toronto and Venice Film Festivals struck bolts of lightning into the Oscar campaigns of, among others, Darkest Hour, Lady Bird, Molly's Game and The Shape of Water, all garnering fabulous notices. Among those attracting a less flattering response were The Current War, Downsizing, Roman Israel, Esq. and Suburbicon.
Sony Pictures Classics picked up Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool, with four-time Oscar nominee Annette Bening taking on the role of Oscar winner Gloria Grahame, for release this year. Will fifth time be the charm? (Given the early notices, odds are no.)
Speaking of acquisitions, A24 landed Greta Gerwig's Lady Bird, starring Saoirse Ronan and Laurie Metcalf. Ah, the sound of 'Oscar nominee Laurie Metcalf' sure does have a nice ring to it.
Also picking up distribution - I, Tonya, with Margo Robbie tearing it up as disgraced gold medal hopeful Tonya Harding (and Allison Janney as her mama!). Neon and 30WEST have snagged rights for the film.
Kathryn Bigelow's Detroit opened to mostly strong notices, though was not without its detractors. At the box office, however, the picture was a total underperformer, leaving its awards season chances all the more questionable.
Brie Larson Oscar bait The Glass Castle opened with a whimper, garnering lukewarm reviews and comparably anemic box office receipts.
Warner Bros. announced it will launch a "groundbreaking" Oscar campaign for critical and box office smash Wonder Woman. 20th Century Fox has promised the same for War for the Planet of the Apes.

No doubt, of course, I'm overlooking something of significance that recently transpired.

Please see below my latest set of Oscar predictions, for the month of September. In parentheses you will find how many slots a contender has moved up or down since my last rankings. In many cases, I have dropped a film or performer entirely. (Also, I'm still holding off on predictions in Best Foreign Language Film and Best Documentary Feature.)

Enjoy and, as always, feel free to comment with your own thoughts as well!

Best Picture

Dunkirk (-)
The Shape of Water (NEW)
Darkest Hour (-)
Call Me By Your Name (-)
The Post (-3)
Last Flag Flying (NEW)
The Florida Project (NEW)
Mudbound (NEW)
Wonder Wheel (+4)
---
Battle of the Sexes (NEW)
Coco (NEW)
Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri (NEW)
Blade Runner 2049 (-3)
Phantom Thread (-10)
Lady Bird (NEW)

DROPPED
The Current War (-10)
Detroit (-9)
Marshall (-8)
Breathe (-7)
mother! (-5)
The Big Sick (-4)
Victoria & Abdul (-2)
Get Out (-1)

Best Director

Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (NEW)
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (+1)
Joe Wright, Darkest Hour (-1)
Luca Guadagnino, Call Me By Your Name (+4)
Steven Spielberg, The Post (-4)
---
Dee Rees, Mudbound (NEW)
Denis Villenueve, Blade Runner 2049 (-)
Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (-4)
Woody Allen, Wonder Wheel (NEW)
Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris, Battle of the Sexes (NEW)

DROPPED
Darren Aronofsky, mother! (-6)
Kathryn Bigelow, Detroit (-5)
Alfonso Gomez-Rejon, The Current War (-2)
Andy Serkis, Breathe (-1)

Best Lead Actor

Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (-)
Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name (NEW)
Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (+3)
Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying (+4)
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (-3)
---
Andrew Garfield, Breathe (-2)
James Franco, The Disaster Artist (NEW)
Steve Carell, Last Flag Flying (NEW)
Tom Hanks, The Post (-2)
Denzel Washington, Roman Israel, Esq. (-1)

DROPPED
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Current War (-8)
Chadwick Boseman, Marshall (-6)
Donald Sutherland, The Leisure Seeker (-1)

Best Lead Actress

Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (+7)
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri (+4)
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (NEW)
Jessica Chastain, Molly's Game (+1)
Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel (-1)
---
Meryl Streep, The Post (-5)
Annette Bening, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool (+2)
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (NEW)
Glenn Close, The Wife (+1)
Judi Dench, Victoria & Abdul (-8)

DROPPED
Jennifer Lawrence, mother! (-8)
Claire Foy, Breathe (-4)

Best Supporting Actor

Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (+8)
Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me By Your Name (+2)
Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour (-1)
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri (NEW)
Laurence Fishburne, Last Flag Flying (NEW)
---
Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (NEW)
Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name (-1)
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (NEW)
Idris Elba, Molly's Game (NEW)
Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (-2)

DROPPED
Michael Shannon, The Current War (-10)
Sterling K. Brown, Marshall (-8)
Steve Carell, Last Flag Flying (-6)
Colin Farrell, Roman Israel, Esq. (-4)
Ray Romano, The Big Sick (-1)

Best Supporting Actress

Melissa Leo, Novitiate (-)
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (NEW)
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (NEW)
Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (-)
Kristin Scott-Thomas, Darkest Hour (-3)
---
Allison Janney, I, Tonya (NEW)
Michelle Pfeiffer, mother! (-4)
Hong Chau, Downsizing (NEW)
Julianne Moore, Wonderstruck (-1)
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (NEW)

DROPPED
Carrie Coon, The Post (-6)
Katherine Waterston, The Current War (-5)
Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread (-4)
Kirsten Dunst, The Beguiled (-3)
Nicole Kidman, The Killing of a Sacred Deer (-1)

Best Original Screenplay

Anthony McCarten, Darkest Hour (-)
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (NEW)
Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri (NEW)
Woody Allen, Wonder Wheel (-)
Sean Baker and Chris Bergoch, The Florida Project (NEW)
---
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (NEW)
Emily V. Gordon and Kumail Nanjiani, The Big Sick (-2)
Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (-6)
Jordan Peele, Get Out (-)
Simon Beaufoy, Battle of the Sexes (NEW)

DROPPED
The Current War (-8)
Suburbicon (-6)
Downsizing (-4)
The Killing of a Sacred Deer (-3)
Marshall (-1)

Best Adapted Screenplay

James Ivory, Call Me By Your Name (+1)
Dee Rees and Virgil Williams, Mudbound (+4)
Liz Hannah and Josh Singer, The Post (-2)
Richard Linklater and Darryl Ponicsan, Last Flag Flying (-1)
Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber, The Disaster Artist (NEW)
---
Aaron Sorkin, Molly's Game (+1)
Peter Fellos, Armando Iannucci, Ian Martin, Fabien Nury, Theirry Robin and David Schneider, The Death of Stalin (NEW)
Andrew Haigh, Lean on Pete (-)
Sofia Coppola, The Beguiled (-3)
Hampton Fancher and Michael Green, Blade Runner 2049 (-)

DROPPED
Victoria & Abdul (-7)
On Chesil Beach (-2)

Best Animated Feature

Coco (-)
Loving Vincent (NEW)
The Breadwinner (-1)
Cars 3 (-1)
Despicable Me 3 (-)
---
Ferdinand (-2)
The Lego Batman Movie (-1)
The Lego Ninjago (-)
Leap! (NEW)
Captain Underpants (-1)

DROPPED
The Star (-4)
My Entire High School Sinking into the Sea (-1)

Best Cinematography

Hoyte Van Hoytema, Dunkirk (+1)
Roger Deakins, Blade Runner 2049 (-1)
Bruno Delbonnel, Darkest Hour (+1)
Dan Laustsen, The Shape of Water (NEW)
Janusz Kaminski, The Post (+2)
---
Sayombhu Mukdeeprom, Call Me By Your Name (+2)
Vittorio Storaro, Wonder Wheel (NEW)
Rachel Morrison, Mudbound (NEW)
Edward Lachmann, Wonderstruck (-)
Masanobu Takayanagi, Hostiles (NEW)

DROPPED
Detroit (-8)
Breathe (-6)
mother! (-5)
The Beguiled (-1)

Best Costume Design

Jacqueline Durran, Darkest Hour (+2)
Consolata Boyle, Victoria & Abdul (-)
Sandy Powell, Wonderstruck (NEW)
Mark Bridges, Phantom Thread (-3)
Ellen Miojnick, The Greatest Showman (+1)
---
Jacqueline Durran, Beauty and the Beast (+1)
Alexandra Byrne and Timothy Everest, Murder on the Orient Express (+1)
Ann Roth, The Post (NEW)
Lindy Hemming, Wonder Woman (+1)
Mary Zophres, Battle of the Sexes (NEW)

DROPPED
The Beguiled (-7)
Marshall (-6)
The Current War (-3)

Best Film Editing

Lee Smith, Dunkirk (-)
Sidney Wolinsky, The Shape of Water (NEW)
Valerio Bonelli, Darkest Hour (+3)
Michael Kahn, The Post (-2)
Bob Ducsay, Star Wars: The Last Jedi (+4)
---
William Hoy and Stan Salfas, War for the Planet of the Apes (NEW)
Pamela Martin, Battle of the Sexes (NEW)
Joe Walker, Blade Runner 2049 (-4)
Walter Fasano, Call Me By Your Name (NEW)
Mako Kamitsuna, Mudbound (NEW)

DROPPED
Phantom Thread (-6)
The Current War (-4)
Baby Driver (-3)
mother! (-1)

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Anita Burger, David Malinkowski and Lucy Sibbick, Darkest Hour (-)
Paula Fleet and Patricia Keighran, The Shape of Water (NEW)
Flora Moody and Allison Sing, Star Wars: The Last Jedi (-1)
---
Lizza Lawson, Jo-Ann MacNiel and Donald Mowat, Blade Runner 2049 (NEW)
Jacqueline Bhavnani, Samantha Denyer, Sarah Kelly and Bradley Simms, Beauty and the Beast (-2)
Haruyo Sawada and Torsten Witte, Battle of the Sexes (NEW)
Sunday English, Gary English, Nicki Ledermann, Angela Levin,Gary Martori, Jerry Popolis, Rania Ribalow, Pamela S. Westmore and Nakoya Yancey, The Greatest Showman (-3)
Jerry DeCarlo and Claus Lulla, Wonderstruck (-)
Alexis Continente, Carol Hemming, Dana Kalder, Jutta Russell, Chiara Ugolini and Wakana Yoshihara, Murder on the Orient Express (-4)
Sarah Craig, Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram, Debra Manou, Emily O'Quinn and Sean Sansom, It (NEW)

DROPPED
The Current War (-5)
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (-4)
Logan (-2)
mother! (-1)

Best Original Score

Alexandre Desplat, The Shape of Water (+5)
Hans Zimmer, Dunkirk (-)
Dario Marianelli, Darkest Hour (-)
John Williams, Star Wars: The Last Jedi (+4)
Thomas Newman, Victoria & Abdul (-)
---
John Williams, The Post (-5)
Hans Zimmer, Blade Runner 2049 (-)
Carter Burwell, Wonderstruck (NEW)
John Debney, Benj Pasek and Justin Paul, The Greatest Showman (+1)
Dustin O'Halloran, The Current War (-6)

DROPPED
Jonny Greenwood, Phantom Thread (-2)

Best Production Design

Nathan Crowley, Dunkirk (+2)
Paul D. Austerberry, The Shape of Water (+2)
Sarah Greenwood, Darkest Hour (-2)
Dennis Gassner, Blade Runner 2049 (-2)
David J. Bomba, Mudbound (NEW)
---
Nathan Crowley, The Greatest Showman (-)
Aline Bonetto, Wonder Woman (NEW)
Rick Heinrichs, Star Wars: The Last Jedi (NEW)
Sarah Finley and Adam Squires, Victoria & Abdul (-)
Rick Carter, The Post (NEW)

DROPPED
Phantom Thread (-6)
The Beguiled (-5)
The Current War (-4)
mother! (-1)

Best Sound Editing

Richard King, Dunkirk (-)
Matthew Wood, Star Wars: The Last Jedi (-)
Will Files, War for the Planet of the Apes (NEW)
Nathan Robitaille, The Shape of Water (NEW)
Theo Green and Mark A. Mangini, Blade Runner 2049 (-2)
---
Julian Slater, Baby Driver (-1)
James Mather, Wonder Woman (NEW)
Scott Hecker, Hostiles (NEW)
Richard Hymns, The Post (-3)
Justin Doyle, Coco (NEW)

DROPPED
Detroit (-7)
The Current War (-4)
Spider-Man: Homecoming (-3)
Beauty and the Beast (-2)
Darkest Hour (-1)

Best Sound Mixing

Gregg Landaker, Gary Rizzo and Mark Weingarten, Dunkirk (-)
David Parker and Michael Semanchick, Star Wars: The Last Jedi (-)
Christian T. Cooke, Filip Hosek and Brad Zoern, The Shape of Water (NEW)
Bill Bair, Will Files, Tom Lalley, Douglas Murray and Andy Nelson, War for the Planet of the Apes (NEW)
Ron Barlett, Doug Hemphill and Mac Ruth, Blade Runner 2049 (-)
---
Paul Munro, Wonder Woman (NEW)
Gary Rydstrom,The Post (-2)
Craig Berkey and Roger J. Sacdalan, Darkest Hour (-1)
Tim Cavagin and Julian Slater, Baby Driver (-1)
Christopher Boyes and Michael Semanchick, Coco (-)

DROPPED
Detroit (-7)
The Current War (-5)
Phantom Thread (-2)

Best Visual Effects

Richard Bain, Ben Morris and Michael Mulholland, Star Wars: The Last Jedi (-)
Dennis Berardi and Kristen Bligh, The Shape of Water (+4)
Ryan Cook, Dan Lemmon, Joe Letteri and Erik Winquist, War for the Planet of the Apes (+3)
Richard Clegg, Paul Lambert, Victor Muller and John Nelson, Blade Runner 2049 (-2)
Andrew Jackson, Andrew Lockley and Tim McGovern, Dunkirk (-2)
---
Frazer Churchill, Viktor Muller, Jessica Norman and Bill Westenhofer, Wonder Woman (+1)
Kyle McCulloch, David Piombino, Kelly Port and Glen Pratt, Beauty and the Beast (-3)
Dan Bethell, Theodore Bialek, Vincent Cirelli, Lou Pecora and Doug Spilatro, Spider-Man: Homecoming (-)
Matthew Crnich, Ray McMaster, Kevin Andrew Smith, Doug Spilatro and Christopher Townsend, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (-)
Vincent Cirelli, Jake Morrison, Brendan Seals, Alexis Wajsbrot and Chad Wiebe,Thor: Ragnarok (-)

2017 Governors Awards Honorees

September 06, 2017 by Andrew Carden in Oscars

Congratulations to this year's incredible Governors Awards honorees!

Charles Burnett, writer/director (The Glass Shield, Killer of Sheep, To Sleep with Anger)

Owen Roizman, cinematographer (The Exorcist, Network, Tootsie)

Donald Sutherland, actor (Don't Look Now, M*A*S*H, Ordinary People)

Agnes Varda, director (Cleo from 5 to 7, La Pointe Courte, Vagabond)

2017 Oscar Nomination Predictions (Summer Edition)

July 20, 2017 by Andrew Carden in Oscars

Too early to start talking the 2017 Oscars? As if!

Heaps, no doubt, will change over the months to come, as a host of pictures, both big and small, flood theaters with awards season aspirations. There will be the Allieds and the Rules Don't Applys, the supposed surefire Oscar contenders that instead spectacularly go up in flames. There will also be the sleepers, like Hell or High Water and Hidden Figures, with surprise success in store, perhaps at the 11 o'clock hour. And there will be the heartbreakers, like Jackie and 20th Century Women, that don't quite triumph on Oscar nominations morning like they should.

This far out, nomination predictions, much as I have a blast putting them together, are very much a shot in the dark. Yes, a pocketful of contenders have already seen the light of day in theaters and sure, another handful have screened here and there. The vast majority, however, remain complete question marks.

The likes of Steven Spielberg's The Papers, Joe Wright's Darkest Hour and Paul Thomas Anderson's Phantom Thread, on paper at least, sound like knockouts, poised to feast on recognition come awards season. Of course, we won't know for some time if any of those three pictures will live up to such expectations.

Woody Allen, Darren Aronofsky, Kathryn Bigelow and Christopher Nolan, among other juggernaut filmmakers, all have films this year, while Oscar favorites including Daniel Day-Lewis, Judi Dench, Frances McDormand, Michael Shannon (yes, I totally consider him an Oscar fave after pulling not one but two nominations out of a hat) and, of course, Meryl Streep are gearing up to potentially barnstorm this awards season.

There are countless questions. Will Murder on the Orient Express flop or flourish? Can Get Out emerge a serious contender, despite Oscar aversion to horror and an early release date? Will Tom Hanks at last return to the Oscars after a series of snubs? What about Jake Gyllenhaal? And just what on earth is Mother! really all about?

Those inquiries and many more shall soon be answered. For now, let's take a rough stab at this. Below you will find my first Oscar nomination predictions of the year, ranked from most to least likely to be recognized. A handful of categories - Foreign Film, Documentary Feature, Original Song and the shorts - I don't feel confident at all forecasting this far out, so I'll hold off on those until the fall.

Of course, I wholeheartedly encourage you to comment with your own thoughts and predictions as well. This, no doubt, per usual, will be one hell of an awards season.

Here's to the 2017 Oscars!

Best Picture

Dunkirk
The Papers
Darkest Hour
Call Me By Your Name
Phantom Thread
The Current War
Detroit
Marshall
Breathe
---
Blade Runner 2049
Mother!
Wonder Wheel
The Big Sick
Victoria & Abdul
Get Out

Best Director

Steven Spielberg, The Papers
Joe Wright, Darkest Hour
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
Darren Aronofsky, Mother!
---
Kathryn Bigelow, Detroit
Denis Villenueve, Blade Runner 2049
Luca Guadagnino, Call Me By Your Name
Alfonso Gomez-Rejon, The Current War
Andy Serkis, Breathe

Best Lead Actor

Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Current War
Andrew Garfield, Breathe
Chadwick Boseman, Marshall
---
Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger
Tom Hanks, The Papers
Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying
Denzel Washington, Roman Israel, Esq.
Donald Sutherland, The Leisure Seeker

Best Lead Actress

Meryl Streep, The Papers
Judi Dench, Victoria & Abdul
Jennifer Lawrence, Mother!
Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel
Jessica Chastain, Molly's Game
---
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri
Claire Foy, Breathe
Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes
Annette Bening, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool
Glenn Close, The Wife

Best Supporting Actor

Michael Shannon, The Current War
Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour
Sterling K. Brown, Marshall
Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me By Your Name
Steve Carell, Last Flag Flying
---
Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name
Colin Farrell, Roman Israel, Esq.
Jason Mitchell, Mudbound
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Ray Romano, The Big Sick

Best Supporting Actress

Melissa Leo, Novitiate
Kristin Scott-Thomas, Darkest Hour
Michelle Pfeiffer, Mother!
Holly Hunter, The Big Sick
Carrie Coon, The Papers
---
Katherine Waterston, The Current War
Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
Kirsten Dunst, The Beguiled
Julianne Moore, Wonderstruck
Nicole Kidman, The Killing of a Sacred Deer

Best Original Screenplay

Anthony McCarten, Darkest Hour
Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
Michael Mitnick, The Current War
Woody Allen, Wonder Wheel
Joel and Ethan Coen, Suburbicon
---
Emily V. Gordon and Kumail Nanjiani, The Big Sick
Alexander Payne and Jim Taylor, Downsizing
Efthymis Filippou and Yorgos Lanthimos, The Killing of a Sacred Deer
Jordan Peele, Get Out
Michael and Jacob Koskoff, Marshall

Best Adapted Screenplay

Liz Hannah and Josh Singer, The Papers
Walter Fasano, Luca Guardagnino and James Ivory, Call Me By Your Name
Richard Linklater and Darryl Ponicsan, Last Flag Flying
Lee Hall, Victoria & Abdul
Dee Rees and Virgil Williams, Mudbound
---
Sofia Coppola, The Beguiled
Aaron Sorkin, Molly's Game
Andrew Haigh, Lean on Pete
Ian McEwan, On Chesil Beach
Hampton Fancher and Michael Green, Blade Runner 2049

Best Animated Feature

Coco
The Breadwinner
Cars 3
Ferdinand
Despicable Me 3
---
The Lego Batman Movie
The Star
The Lego Ninjago
Captain Underpants
My Entire High School Sinking into the Sea

Best Cinematography

Roger Deakins, Blade Runner 2049
Hoyte Van Hoytema, Dunkirk
Barry Ackroyd, Detroit
Bruno Delbonnel, Darkest Hour
Robert Richardson, Breathe
---
Matthew Libatique, Mother!
Janusz Kaminski, The Papers
Sayombhu Mukdeeprom, Call Me By Your Name
Edward Lachmann, Wonderstruck
Phillippe Le Sourd, The Beguiled

Best Costume Design

Mark Bridges, Phantom Thread
Consolata Boyle, Victoria & Abdul
Jacqueline Durran, Darkest Hour
Stacey Battat, The Beguiled
Ruth E. Carter, Marshall
---
Ellen Miojnick, The Greatest Showman
Jacqueline Durran, Beauty and the Beast
Alexandra Byrne, Murder on the Orient Express
Michael Wikinson, The Current War
Lindy Hemming, Wonder Woman

Best Film Editing

Lee Smith, Dunkirk
Michael Kahn, The Papers
William Goldenberg and Harry Yoon, Detroit
Joe Walker, Blade Runner 2049
Dylan Tichenor, Phantom Thread
---
Valerio Bonelli, Darkest Hour
David Trachenberg, The Current War
Jonathan Amos and Paul Machliss, Baby Driver
Bob Ducsay, Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Andrew Weisblum, Mother!

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Darkest Hour
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Beauty and the Beast
---
The Greatest Showman
Murder on the Orient Express
The Current War
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
Wonderstruck
Logan
Mother!

Best Original Score

John Williams, The Papers
Hans Zimmer, Dunkirk
Dario Marianelli, Darkest Hour
Dustin O'Halloran, The Current War
Thomas Newman, Victoria & Abdul
---
Alexandre Desplat, The Shape of Water
Johann Johannsson, Blade Runner 2049
John Williams, Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Jonny Greenwood, Phantom Thread
Benj Pasek and Justin Paul, The Greatest Showman

Best Production Design

Sarah Greenwood, Darkest Hour
Dennis Gassner, Blade Runner 2049
Nathan Crowley, Dunkirk
Paul D. Austerberry, The Shape of Water
Mark Tildesley, Phantom Thread
---
Anne Ross, The Beguiled
Jan Roelfs, The Current War
Nathan Crowley, The Greatest Showman
Sarah Finley and Adam Squires, Victoria & Abdul
Philip Messina, Mother!

Best Sound Editing

Dunkirk
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Blade Runner 2049
Detroit
Baby Driver
---
The Papers
The Current War
Spider-Man: Homecoming
Beauty and the Beast
Darkest Hour

Best Sound Mixing

Dunkirk
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Blade Runner 2049
Detroit
The Papers
---
The Current War
Darkest Hour
Baby Driver
Phantom Thread
Coco

Best Visual Effects

Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
Beauty and the Beast
The Shape of Water
---
War for the Planet of the Apes
Wonder Woman
Spider-Man: Homecoming
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
Thor: Ragnarok