FINAL 2016 Oscar Winner Predictions

At last, here we go!

It legit feels like just yesterday that I was predicting the likes of Allied, Billy Lynn's Last Halftime Walk and Rules Don't Apply for Oscar nominations. Now, here we are, with that trio of bombs long out of the picture and La La Land poised to steamroll Oscar night. The question remains, however - even if the Damien Chazelle film is a virtual shoo-in to claim the Best Picture prize, just how many wins will this thing really rack up? Can it realistically break the wins record with a dozen victories? I'm skeptical but also not convinced it's not plausible.

There are a bunch of categories I'm having a tough time projecting: among them, Lead Actor (an exciting barn burner between Affleck and Washington); Supporting Actor (SAG winner Ali vs. BAFTA winner Patel); Original Screenplay (has Manchester's momentum so faded that it can lose here?); Adapted Screenplay (don't presume Moonlight's a shoo-in...anything but Fences can win); Cinematography (Lion eying an upset); Visual Effects (five-way jump ball); and Costume Design (Jackie's consolation prize?). Upsets also seem ripe to me in Documentary Feature and all of the shorts categories. And yes, at this point, I do see Huppert as having a better shot at defeating Stone than Portman. (Not that it much matters, since I think of Stone as a pretty hefty front-runner.)

There are plenty of scenarios that can go down here, including a La La Land rout that leaves most of the Best Picture nominees trophy-less. Likewise, there's a chance, modest it as may be, that La La Land's support is overstated and it "only" goes home with half a dozen or even a tad fewer Oscars. (My final hunch is eight prizes.) I suspect we're in for one hell of an Oscar night, with at least a couple of true jaw-droppers.

With that said, here's what my gut is telling me...

Best Picture

1. La La Land
2. Hidden Figures
3. Lion
4. Moonlight
5. Manchester by the Sea
6. Hacksaw Ridge
7. Fences
8. Arrival
9. Hell or High Water

Best Director

1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land
2. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
3. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
4. Denis Villenueve, Arrival
5. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea

Best Lead Actor

1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
2. Denzel Washington, Fences
3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land
4. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
5. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic

Best Lead Actress

1. Emma Stone, La La Land
2. Isabelle Huppert, Elle
3. Natalie Portman, Jackie
4. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
5. Ruth Negga, Loving

Best Supporting Actor

1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
2. Dev Patel, Lion
3. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
4. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
5. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea

Best Supporting Actress

1. Viola Davis, Fences
2. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
3. Nicole Kidman, Lion
4. Naomie Harris, Moonlight
5. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures

Best Original Screenplay

1. Manchester by the Sea
2. La La Land
3. Hell or High Water
4. 20th Century Women
5. The Lobster

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Moonlight
2. Lion
3. Arrival
4. Hidden Figures
5. Fences

Best Cinematography

1. La La Land
2. Lion
3. Moonlight
4. Arrival
5. Silence

Best Film Editing

1. La La Land
2. Hacksaw Ridge
3. Moonlight
4. Hell or High Water
5. Arrival

Best Visual Effects

1. The Jungle Book
2. Kubo and the Two Strings
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
4. Deepwater Horizon
5. Doctor Strange

Best Production Design

1. La La Land
2. Arrival
3. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
4. Hail, Caesar!
5. Passengers

Best Costume Design

1. Jackie
2. La La Land
3. Florence Foster Jenkins
4. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
5. Allied

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Star Trek: Beyond
2. A Man Called Ove
3. Suicide Squad

Best Original Score

1. La La Land
2. Lion
3. Jackie
4. Moonlight
5. Passengers

Best Original Song

1. "How Far I'll Go," Moana
2. "City of Stars," La La Land
3. "Audition (The Fools Who Dream)," La La Land
4. "The Empty Chair," Jim: The James Foley Story
5. "Can't Stop the Feeling," Trolls

Best Sound Editing

1. Hacksaw Ridge
2. Arrival
3. La La Land
4. Deepwater Horizon
5. Sully

Best Sound Mixing

1. La La Land
2. Hacksaw Ridge
3. Arrival
4. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
5. 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi

Best Animated Feature

1. Zootopia
2. Kubo and the Two Strings
3. Moana
4. My Life as a Zucchini
5. The Red Turtle

Best Documentary Feature

1. Fire at Sea
2. 13th
3. O.J.: Made in America
4. Life, Animated
5. I Am Not Your Negro

Best Foreign Language Film

1. The Salesman
2. Toni Erdmann
3. A Man Called Ove
4. Tanna
5. Land of Mine

Best Documentary Short Subject

1. Joe's Violin
2. Watani: My Homeland
3. 4.1 Miles
4. The White Helmets
5. Extremis

Best Live Action Short

1. Silent Nights
2. La Femme et le TGV
3. Timecode
4. Ennemis Entreniers
5. Sing

Best Animated Short

1. Pear Cider and Cigarettes
2. Pearl
3. Piper
4. Blind Vaysha
5. Borrowed Time

2nd Annual Awards Connection Oscar Predictions Contest

Howdy, awards season junkies!

It's time for the 2nd Annual Awards Connection Oscar Predictions Contest.

The rules are easy and breezy. First, if you somehow haven't already, follow me @AwardsConnect on Twitter. Then, simply e-mail your Oscar predictions in all 24 categories (yes, including the likes of Best Sound Editing and Best Documentary Short Subject) to me at theawardsconnection@gmail.com, and include in the e-mail your Twitter handle (if you have one), as I'll be announcing the contest winner via Twitter.

Whoever gets the most correct predictions will receive a $25 Fandango gift card via e-mail. Last year, it was Matthew Stewart who emerged triumphant.

In the event of a tie, I have the following tie-breaker question: How many Oscars will La La Land, Manchester by the Sea and Moonlight win COMBINED? Whoever has the correct answer or comes closest to it will triumph. (Ex: If you believe La La Land will win 7 Oscars, Manchester by the Sea 3 Oscars and Moonlight 2 Oscars, your answer should be 12 Oscars.) Include your answer in the e-mail.

The deadline for prediction submissions is Oscar Sunday, February 26th at 6pm eastern time. The contest winner will be announced later in the week on Twitter and also notified via e-mail.

Questions should be directed to theawardsconnection@gmail.com, or of course feel free to message me on Twitter.

Happy predicting!

For your copy-and-pasting convenience, here again are this year's nominees:

BEST PICTURE
Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight

BEST DIRECTOR
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight

BEST ACTOR
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences

BEST ACTRESS
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel, Lion
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Hell or High Water
La La Land
The Lobster
Manchester by the Sea
20th Century Women

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Arrival
Fences
Hidden Figures
Lion
Moonlight

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Arrival
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Silence

BEST FILM EDITING
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Moonlight

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Deepwater Horizon
Doctor Strange
The Jungle Book
Kubo and the Two Strings
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Arrival
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Hail, Caesar!
La La Land
Passengers

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Allied
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins
Jackie
La La Land

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
A Man Called Ove
Star Trek Beyond
Suicide Squad

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Jackie
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Passengers

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Audition (The Fools Who Dream),” La La Land
“Can’t Stop the Feeling,” Trolls
“City of Stars,” La La Land
“The Empty Chair,” Jim: The James Foley Story
“How Far I’ll Go,” Moana

BEST SOUND EDITING
Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Sully

BEST SOUND MIXING
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
The Red Turtle
Zootopia

BEST DOCUMENTARY
Fire at Sea
I Am Not Your Negro
Life, Animated
O.J.: Made in America
13th

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Land of Mine
A Man Called Ove
The Salesman
Tanna
Toni Erdmann

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
Extremis
4.1 Miles
Joe's Violin
Watani: My Homeland
The White Helmets

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
Ennemis Entreniers
La Femme et le TGV
Silent Nights
Sing
Timecode

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Blind Vaysha
Borrowed Time
Pear Cider and Cigarettes
Pearl
Piper

2016 Oscar Nominations

Congratulations to all of this year's nominees!

BEST PICTURE
Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight

BEST DIRECTOR
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight

BEST ACTOR
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences

BEST ACTRESS
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel, Lion
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Hell or High Water
La La Land
The Lobster
Manchester by the Sea
20th Century Women

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Arrival
Fences
Hidden Figures
Lion
Moonlight

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Arrival
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Silence

BEST FILM EDITING
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Moonlight

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Deepwater Horizon
Doctor Strange
The Jungle Book
Kubo and the Two Strings
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Arrival
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Hail, Caesar!
La La Land
Passengers

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Allied
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins
Jackie
La La Land

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
A Man Called Ove
Star Trek Beyond
Suicide Squad

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Jackie
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Passengers

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Audition (The Fools Who Dream),” La La Land
“Can’t Stop the Feeling,” Trolls
“City of Stars,” La La Land
“The Empty Chair,” Jim: The James Foley Story
“How Far I’ll Go,” Moana

BEST SOUND EDITING
Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Sully

BEST SOUND MIXING
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
The Red Turtle
Zootopia

BEST DOCUMENTARY
Fire at Sea
I Am Not Your Negro
Life, Animated
O.J.: Made in America
13th

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Land of Mine
A Man Called Ove
The Salesman
Tanna
Toni Erdmann

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
Extremis
4.1 Miles
Joe's Violin
Watani: My Homeland
The White Helmets

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
Ennemis Entreniers
La Femme et le TGV
Silent Nights
Sing
Timecode

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Blind Vaysha
Borrowed Time
Pear Cider and Cigarettes
Pearl
Piper

FINAL 2016 Oscar Nomination Predictions!

This is it, folks - my final Oscar nomination predictions! Since my last commentary in December, a ton has gone down in the awards season - Golden Globes were handed out, as were BAFTA nods and nominations from the Directors, Writers and Producers Guilds of America. Next week, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will (at last!) offer its two cents on the best of cinema in 2016 and, not long after that, BAFTA and the guilds will be announcing their winners. As a reminder, this year's Oscar ceremony falls on February 26.

So, that being said, here are my final predictions. In parentheses you will see how many slots a contender has moved up or down since my December rankings. In some cases, I have eliminated a film or performer entirely.

Enjoy and, as always, feel free to comment with your own thoughts as well!

(PS: As I did last year, I will again be hosting an Oscar winners prediction contest, with a Fandango gift card as grand prize. Keep an eye out for more details on that, after the nominations are announced.)

Best Picture

1. La La Land (-)
2. Moonlight (-)
3. Manchester by the Sea (-)
4. Lion (-)
5. Hidden Figures (+2)
6. Arrival (-1)
7. Fences (-1)
8. Hacksaw Ridge (+1)
9. Hell or High Water (+1)
   ---
10. Nocturnal Animals (+3)
11. Silence (-3)
12. Deadpool (NEW)
13. Loving (-2)
14. Jackie (-2)
15. Sully (-1)

DROPPED
Florence Foster Jenkins (-1)

Best Director

1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (-)
2. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (-)
3. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (-)
4. Denis Villanueve, Arrival (+1)
5. Garth Davis, Lion (+2)
   ---
6. Martin Scorsese, Silence (-2)
7. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge (-1)
8. David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water (-)
9. Pablo Larrain, Jackie (-)
10. Clint Eastwood, Sully (-)

Best Lead Actor

1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (-)
2. Denzel Washington, Fences (-)
3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (-)
4. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (-)
5. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge (-)
   ---
6. Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals (NEW)
7. Ryan Reynolds, Deadpool (+1)
8. Joel Edgerton, Loving (-2)
9. Colin Farrell, The Lobster (-2)
10. Tom Hanks, Sully (-1)

DROPPED
Michael Keaton, The Founder (-1)

Best Lead Actress

1. Emma Stone, La La Land (+1)
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (-1)
3. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (-)
4. Amy Adams, Arrival (+1)
5. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (-1)
   ---
6. Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train (+3)
7. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (-1)
8. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (NEW)
9. Ruth Negga, Loving (-2)
10. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (-)

DROPPED
Hailee Steinfeld, The Edge of Seventeen (-3)

Best Supporting Actor

1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (-)
2. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (-)
3. Dev Patel, Lion (-)
4. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (+2)
5. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Nocturnal Animals (+4)
   ---
6. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (-1)
7. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (-2)
8. Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures (NEW)
9. Issey Ogata, Silence (-2)
10. Ben Foster, Hell or High Water (-2)

DROPPED
Simon Helberg, Florence Foster Jenkins (-1)

Best Supporting Actress

1. Viola Davis, Fences (-)
2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (-)
3. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (-)
4. Nicole Kidman, Lion (-)
5. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (-)
   ---
6. Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures (+1)
7. Lily Gladstone, Certain Women (-1)
8. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (+1)
9. Hayley Squires, I, Daniel Blake (NEW)
10. Laura Linney, Nocturnal Animals (NEW)

DROPPED
Molly Shannon, Other People (-3)
Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls (-1)

Best Original Screenplay

1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (+1)
2. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (-1)
3. Taylor Sheridan, Hell or High Water (-)
4. Matt Ross, Captain Fantastic (-)
5. Noah Oppenheim, Jackie (-)
   ---
6. Nicholas Martin, Florence Foster Jenkins (-)
7. Efthimis Filippou and Yorgos Lanthimos, The Lobster (-)
8. Jared Bush, Byron Howard, Phil Johnston, Jennifer Lee, Rich Moore, Jim Reardon and Josie Trinidad, Zootopia (+1)
9. Paul Laverty, I, Daniel Blake (NEW)
10. Maren Ade, Toni Erdmann (NEW)

DROPPED
Mike Mills, 20th Century Women (-3)
Peter Berg, Matt Cook and Joshua Zetumer, Patriots Day (-1)

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Barry Jenkins and Tarell McCraney, Moonlight (-)
2. Luke Davies, Lion (+1)
3. Eric Heisserer, Arrival (+3)
4. August Wilson, Fences (-2)
5. Allison Schroeder and Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (+2)
   ---
6. Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals (+2)
7. Jeff Nichols, Loving (-3)
8. Andrew Knight and Robert Schenkkan, Hacksaw Ridge (+2)
9. Jay Cocks, Silence (-4)
10. David Birke, Elle (NEW)

DROPPED
Todd Komarnicki, Sully (-2)

Best Animated Feature

1. Zootopia (-)
2. Moana (-)
3. Kubo and the Two Strings (+3)
4. Miss Hokusai (+4)
5. The Red Turtle (-1)
   ---
6. Sing (-3)
7. Finding Dory (-2)
8. The Little Prince (NEW)
9. April and the Extraordinary World (-2)
10. My Life as a Zucchini (NEW)

Best Cinematography

1. Linus Sandgren, La La Land (-)
2. James Laxton, Moonlight (-)
3. Bradford Young, Arrival (-)
4. Bill Pope, The Jungle Book (+3)
5. Seamus McGarvey, Nocturnal Animals (+1)
   ---
6. Rodrigo Prieto, Silence (-3)
7. Greig Fraser, Lion (+1)
8. Giles Nuttgens, Hell or High Water (+1)
9. Stephanie Fontaine, Jackie (-4)
10. Greig Fraser, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (NEW)

DROPPED
Robert Richardson, Live by Night (-1)

Best Costume Design

1. Mary Zophres, La La Land (-)
2. Madeline Fontaine, Jackie (-)
3. Consolata Boyle, Florence Foster Jenkins (-)
4. Marion Boyce and Margot Wilson, The Dressmaker (NEW)
5. Colleen Atwood, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (-1)
   ---
6. Renee Ehrlich Kalfus, Hidden Figures (+2)
7. Dante Ferretti, Silence (-2)
8. Seong-hie Ryu, The Handmaiden (-1)
9. Lizzy Gardiner, Hacksaw Ridge (-)
10. Mary Zophres, Hail, Caesar! (NEW)

DROPPED
Eimer Ni Mhaoldomhnaigh, Love & Friendship (-5)
Sharen Davis, Fences (-2)

Best Film Editing

1. Tom Cross, La La Land (-)
2. Joi McMillon and Nat Sanders, Moonlight (-)
3. Jennifer Lame, Manchester by the Sea (-)
4. John Gilbert, Hacksaw Ridge (+6)
5. Alexandre de Francheschi, Lion (-)
   ---
6. Joe Walker, Arrival (-)
7. Thelma Schoonmaker, Silence (-3)
8. Joan Sobel, Nocturnal Animals (-)
9. Jake Roberts, Hell or High Water (NEW)
10. Sebastián Sepúlveda, Jackie (-3)

DROPPED
Blu Murray, Sully (-2)

Best Production Design

1. David Wasco, La La Land (-)
2. Barry Robison, Hacksaw Ridge (+5)
3. Christopher Glass, The Jungle Book (+2)
4. Jean Rabasse, Jackie (-1)
5. Patrice Vermette, Arrival (+5)
   ---
6. Dante Ferretti, Silence (-4)
7. Stuart Craig, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (-3)
8. Alan MacDonald, Florence Foster Jenkins (-2)
9. Doug Chiang and Neil Lamont, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (NEW)
10. Jeremy Woolsey, Hidden Figures (NEW)

DROPPED
Anna Rackard, Love & Friendship (-3)
Jess Gonchor, Live by Night (-2)

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

1. Florence Foster Jenkins (-)
2. Deadpool (NEW)
3. A Man Called Ove (NEW)
   ---
4. Star Trek: Beyond (NEW)
5. Hail, Caesar! (-1)
6. Suicide Squad (+3)
7. The Dressmaker (NEW)

DROPPED
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (-10)
Jackie (-8)
Hacksaw Ridge (-6)
Nocturnal Animals (-5)
Silence (-4)
Love & Friendship (-3)
La La Land (-1)

Best Original Score

1. Justin Hurwitz, La La Land (-)
2. Dustin O’Halloran and Hauschka, Lion (-)
3. Alexandre Desplat, Florence Foster Jenkins (+1)
4. John Williams, The BFG (+1)
5. Hans Zimmer, Pharrell Williams and Benjamin Wallfisch, Hidden Figures (NEW)
   ---
6. Mica Levi, Jackie (-3)
7. Nicholas Britell, Moonlight (+1)
8. Abel Korzeniowski, Nocturnal Animals (-1)
9. Michael Giacchino, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (-3)
10. Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, Patriots Day (-)

DROPPED
Mark Mancina, Moana (-2)

Best Original Song

1. "City of Stars," La La Land (-)
2. "Audition (The Fools Who Dream)," La La Land (+1)
3. "How Far I'll Go," Moana (-1)
4. "I See Victory," Hidden Figures (+1)
5. "We Know the Way," Moana (-1)
   ---
6. "A Letter to the Free," 13th (+2)
7. "Can't Stop the Feeling," Trolls (-)
8. "Drive It Like You Stole It," Sing Street (-2)
9. "Faith," Sing (-)
10. "The Rules Don't Apply," Rules Don't Apply (-)

Best Sound Editing

1. La La Land (-)
2. Arrival (-)
3. Hacksaw Ridge (-)
4. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (-)
5. Deepwater Horizon (+2)
   ---
6. Captain America: Civil War (+2)
7. The Jungle Book (NEW)
8. Patriots Day (-2)
9. Sully (-4)
10. Deadpool (NEW)

DROPPED
Silence (-3)
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (-1)

Best Sound Mixing

1. La La Land (-)
2. Arrival (-)
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (-)
4. Hacksaw Ridge (+1)
5. The Jungle Book (NEW)
   ---
6. Zootopia (-)
7. Captain America: Civil War (+2)
8. Deepwater Horizon (NEW)
9. Hell or High Water (NEW)
10. Sully (-6)

DROPPED
Moana (-4)
Silence (-3)
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (-1)

Best Visual Effects

1. Arrival (-)
2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (-)
3. The Jungle Book (+1)
4. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (-1)
5. Captain America: Civil War (-)
   ---
6. Deepwater Horizon (+4)
7. Kubo and the Two Strings (NEW)
8. Doctor Strange (-)
9. Passengers (-4)
10. The BFG (NEW)

DROPPED
Sully (-5)
Deadpool (-4)

Best Documentary Feature

1. 13th (-)
2. I Am Not Your Negro (+2)
3. Gleason (-1)
4. The Eagle Huntress (-1)
5. Fire at Sea (-)
   ---
6. O.J.: Made in America (+3)
7. Cameraperson (+1)
8. Zero Days (+2)
9. The Ivory Game (-3)
10. Life, Animated (-3)

Best Foreign Language Film

1. Toni Erdmann (Germany) (-)
2. The Salesman (Iran) (-)
3. My Life as a Zucchini (Switzerland) (+3)
4. Land of Mine (Denmark) (-1)
5. A Man Called Ove (Sweden) (-)
   ---
6. The King's Choice (Norway) (-2)
7. Tanna (Australia) (+1)
8. It's Only the End of the World (Canada) (-1)
9. Paradise (Russia) (-)

2016 Oscar Nomination Predictions (December)

Aloha, awards fans! It has been one hell of a month since my last set of Oscar predictions, with race-altering Golden Globe and SAG nominations, plus a heap of critics awards announcing their favorites of the year. Some wannabe-contenders, like Allied and Rules Don't Apply, fell flat on their faces, both critically and financially, while the likes of La La Land, Manchester By the Sea and Moonlight steamrolled their way through the precursors thus far. Little, however, is truly set in stone when it comes to this year's Oscar nominations - so much can happen between now and January 5 (when AMPAS nominating opens to members), let alone Oscar nominations morning on January 24.

With that said, please check out below my latest Oscar predictions, for the month of December. In parentheses you will find how many slots a contender has moved up or down since my November rankings. In a number of cases, I have eliminated a film or performer entirely. I will do one more, final set of predictions in January.

Have fun and, as always, feel free to comment with your own thoughts too!

Best Picture

1. La La Land (-)
2. Moonlight (+4)
3. Manchester by the Sea (+1)
4. Lion (+8)
5. Arrival (-2)
6. Fences (+1)
7. Hidden Figures (+2)
8. Silence (-3)
9. Hacksaw Ridge (NEW)
   ---
10. Hell or High Water (NEW)
11. Loving (-3)
12. Jackie (-10)
13. Nocturnal Animals (+1)
14. Sully (-1)
15. Florence Foster Jenkins (NEW)

DROPPED
Rules Don't Apply (-6)
20th Century Women (-5)
Allied (-1)

Best Director

1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (-)
2. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (+4)
3. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (+3)
4. Martin Scorsese, Silence (-1)
5. Denis Villanueve, Arrival (-3)
   ---
6. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge (NEW)
7. Garth Davis, Lion (NEW)
8. David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water (NEW)
9. Pablo Larrain, Jackie (-5)
10. Clint Eastwood, Sully (-1)

DROPPED
Denzel Washington, Fences (-4)
Warren Beatty, Rules Don't Apply (-3)
Jeff Nichols, Loving (-1)

Best Lead Actor

1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (-)
2. Denzel Washington, Fences (-)
3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (-)
4. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (NEW)
5. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge (-)
   ---
6. Joel Edgerton, Loving (-2)
7. Colin Farrell, The Lobster (NEW)
8. Ryan Reynolds, Deadpool (NEW)
9. Tom Hanks, Sully (-2)
10. Michael Keaton, The Founder (-3)

DROPPED:
Warren Beatty, Rules Don't Apply (-5)
Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals (-2)
Robert De Niro, The Comedian (-1)

Best Lead Actress

1. Natalie Portman, Jackie (+1)
2. Emma Stone, La La Land (-1)
3. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (+2)
4. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (+5)
5. Amy Adams, Arrival (-1)
   ---
6. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (-3)
7. Ruth Negga, Loving (-1)
8. Hailee Steinfeld, The Edge of Seventeen (NEW)
9. Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train (NEW)
10. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (-2)

DROPPED
Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (-4)
Kate Beckinsale, Love & Friendship (-1)

Best Supporting Actor

1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (+4)
2. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (+4)
3. Dev Patel, Lion (+6)
4. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (-2)
5. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (-1)
   ---
6. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (+2)
7. Issey Ogata, Silence (NEW)
8. Ben Foster, Hell or High Water (NEW)
9. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Nocturnal Animals (NEW)
10. Simon Helberg, Florence Foster Jenkins (NEW)

DROPPED
Liam Neeson, Silence (-11)
Peter Sarsgaard, Jackie (-8)
Adam Driver, Silence (-4)
Stephen Henderson, Fences (-1)

Best Supporting Actress

1. Viola Davis, Fences (+2)
2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (-)
3. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (-2)
4. Nicole Kidman, Lion (+1)
5. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (+1)
   ---
6. Lily Gladstone, Certain Women (NEW)
7. Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures (NEW)
8. Molly Shannon, Other People (+2)
9. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (-5)
10. Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls (-1)

DROPPED
Lupita Nyong'o, Queen of Katwe (-4)
Annette Bening, Rules Don't Apply (-3)

Best Original Screenplay

1. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (-)
2. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (+2)
3. Taylor Sheridan, Hell or High Water (NEW)
4. Matt Ross, Captain Fantastic (NEW)
5. Noah Oppenheim, Jackie (-4)
   ---
6. Nicholas Martin, Florence Foster Jenkins (NEW)
7. Efthimis Filippou and Yorgos Lanthimos, The Lobster (NEW)
8. Mike Mills, 20th Century Women (-1)
9. Jared Bush, Byron Howard, Phil Johnston, Jennifer Lee, Rich Moore, Jim Reardon and Josie Trinidad, Zootopia (-1)
10. Peter Berg, Matt Cook and Joshua Zetumer, Patriots Day (NEW)

DROPPED
Barry Jenkins and Tarell McCraney, Moonlight (-10)
Jeff Nichols, Loving (-8)
Warren Beatty, Rules Don't Apply (-5)
Ron Clements and John Musker, Moana (-2)
Asghar Farhadi, The Salesman (-1)

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Barry Jenkins and Tarell McCraney, Moonlight (NEW)
2. August Wilson, Fences (-1)
3. Luke Davies, Lion (+3)
4. Jeff Nichols, Loving (NEW)
5. Jay Cocks, Silence (-2)
   ---
6. Eric Heisserer, Arrival (-4)
7. Allison Schroeder, Hidden Figures (-2)
8. Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals (-4)
9. Todd Komarnicki, Sully (+1)
10. Andrew Knight and Robert Schenkkan, Hacksaw Ridge (NEW)

DROPPED
Ben Affleck, Live by Night (-4)
Whit Stillman, Love & Friendship (-3)
David Birke, Elle (-2)

Best Animated Feature

1. Zootopia (-)
2. Moana (-)
3. Kubo and the Two Strings (+3)
4. Miss Hokusai (+4)
5. The Red Turtle (-1)
   ---
6. Sing (-3)
7. Finding Dory (-2)
8. The Little Prince (NEW)
9. April and the Extraordinary World (-2)
10. My Life as a Zucchini (NEW)

DROPPED
Sausage Party (-2)
The Secret Life of Pets (-1)

Best Cinematography

1. Linus Sandgren, La La Land (-)
2. James Laxton, Moonlight (+6)
3. Rodrigo Prieto, Silence (+1)
4. Bradford Young, Arrival (-2)
5. Stephanie Fontaine, Jackie (-2)
   ---
6. Seamus McGarvey, Nocturnal Animals (-1)
7. Bill Pope, The Jungle Book (-1)
8. Greig Fraser, Lion (NEW)
9. Giles Nuttgens, Hell or High Water (NEW)
10. Robert Richardson, Live by Night (-3)

DROPPED
Caleb Deschanel, Rules Don't Apply (-2)
Charlotte Bruus Christiansen, Fences (-1)

Best Costume Design

1. Mary Zophres, La La Land (-)
2. Madeline Fontaine, Jackie (-)
3. Consolata Boyle, Florence Foster Jenkins (+3)
4. Colleen Atwood, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (+3)
5. Dante Ferretti, Silence (-2)
   ---
6. Eimer Ni Mhaoldomhnaigh, Love & Friendship (-1)
7. Seong-hie Ryu, The Handmaiden (NEW)
8. Renee Ehrlich Kalfus, Hidden Figures (NEW)
9. Lizzy Gardiner, Hacksaw Ridge (NEW)
10. Sharen Davis, Fences (-2)

DROPPED
Albert Wolsky, Rules Don't Apply (-7)
Jacqueline West, Live by Night (-2)
Joanna Johnston, Allied (-1)

Best Film Editing

1. Tom Cross, La La Land (-)
2. Joi McMillon and Nat Sanders, Moonlight (+3)
3. Jennifer Lame, Manchester by the Sea (+4)
4. Thelma Schoonmaker, Silence (-2)
5. Alexandre de Francheschi, Lion (+5)
   ---
6. Joe Walker, Arrival (-3)
7. Sebastián Sepúlveda, Jackie (-3)
8. Joan Sobel, Nocturnal Animals (-2)
9. Blu Murray, Sully (-)
10. John Gilbert, Hacksaw Ridge (NEW)

DROPPED
Hughes Winborne, Fences (-3)

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

1. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (-)
2. Florence Foster Jenkins (-)
3. Jackie (+1)
   ---
4. Hail, Caesar! (+1)
5. Hacksaw Ridge (NEW)
6. Nocturnal Animals (NEW)
7. Silence (-1)
8. Love & Friendship (-1)
9. Suicide Squad (NEW)
10. La La Land (NEW)

DROPPED
Rules Don't Apply (-8)
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (-3)
Star Trek: Beyond (-2)
Live by Night (-1)

Best Original Score

1. Justin Hurwitz, La La Land (+4)
2. Dustin O’Halloran and Hauschka, Lion (NEW)
3. Mica Levi, Jackie (-1)
4. Alexandre Desplat, Florence Foster Jenkins (+3)
5. John Williams, The BFG (+2)
   ---
6. Michael Giacchino, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (-1)
7. Abel Korzeniowski, Nocturnal Animals (NEW)
8. Nicholas Britell, Moonlight (NEW)
9. Mark Mancina, Moana (-6)
10. Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, Patriots Day (NEW)

DROPPED
Johann Johansson, Arrival (-11)
Kim Allen Kluge and Katherine Kluge, Silence (-10)
Michael Giacchino, Zootopia (-5)
Thomas Newman, Finding Dory (-1)

Best Original Song

1. "City of Stars," La La Land (-)
2. "How Far I'll Go," Moana (+2)
3. "Audition (The Fools Who Dream)," La La Land (-1)
4. "We Know the Way," Moana (-2)
5. "Victory," Hidden Figures (-)
   ---
6. "Drive It Like You Stole It," Sing Street (NEW)
7. "Can't Stop the Feeling," Trolls (+2)
8. "A Letter to the Free," 13th (-1)
9. "Faith," Sing (NEW)
10. "The Rules Don't Apply," Rules Don't Apply (-)

DROPPED
"Go Now," Sing Street (-5)
"The Great Beyond, Sausage Party (-3)

Best Production Design

1. David Wasco, La La Land (-)
2. Dante Ferretti, Silence (-)
3. Jean Rabasse, Jackie (-)
4. Stuart Craig, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (+1)
5. Christopher Glass, The Jungle Book (NEW)
   ---
6. Alan MacDonald, Florence Foster Jenkins (NEW)
7. Barry Robison, Hacksaw Ridge (NEW)
8. Anna Rackard, Love & Friendship (-2)
9. Jess Gonchor, Live by Night (-2)
10. Patrice Vermette, Arrival (NEW)

DROPPED
Jeannine Oppewall, Rules Don't Apply (-7)
Gary Freeman, Allied (-2)
David Gropman, Fences (-1)

Best Sound Editing

1. La La Land (-)
2. Arrival (-)
3. Hacksaw Ridge (NEW)
4. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (-1)
5. Sully (+3)
   ---
6. Patriots Day (NEW)
7. Deepwater Horizon (NEW)
8. Captain America: Civil War (-2)
9. Silence (-5)
10. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (-5)

DROPPED
Passengers (-4)
Moana (-1)

Best Sound Mixing

1. La La Land (-)
2. Arrival (-)
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (+1)
4. Sully (+4)
5. Hacksaw Ridge (NEW)
   ---
6. Zootopia (+1)
7. Moana (-1)
8. Silence (-5)
9. Captain America: Civil War (-)
10. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (-5)

DROPPED
Passengers (-1)

Best Visual Effects

1. Arrival (-)
2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (-)
3. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (-)
4. The Jungle Book (+1)
5. Captain America: Civil War (+1)
   ---
6. Sully (NEW)
7. Deadpool (NEW)
8. Doctor Strange (-1)
9. Passengers (-4)
10. Deepwater Horizon (NEW)

DROPPED
Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (-3)
A Monster Calls (-2)
Star Trek: Beyond (-1)

Best Documentary Feature

1. 13th (-)
2. Gleason (-)
3. The Eagle Huntress (+2)
4. I Am Not Your Negro (NEW)
5. Fire at Sea (+1)
   ---
6. The Ivory Game (NEW)
7. Life, Animated (NEW)
8. Cameraperson (NEW)
9. O.J.: Made in America (NEW)
10. Zero Days (NEW)

DROPPED
Lo and Behold, Reveries of the Connected World (-8)
Equal Means Equal (-7)
Miss Sharon Jones (-4)
By Sidney Lumet (-3)
The Beatles: Eight Days a Week - The Touring Years (-2)
Newtown (-1)

Best Foreign Language Film

1. Toni Erdmann (Germany) (-)
2. The Salesman (Iran) (-)
3. Land of Mine (Denmark) (NEW)
4. The King's Choice (Norway) (NEW)
5. A Man Called Ove (Sweden) (NEW)
   ---
6. My Life as a Zucchini (Switzerland) (NEW)
7. It's Only the End of the World (Canada) (NEW)
8. Tanna (Australia) (NEW)
9. Paradise (Russia) (NEW)

DROPPED
Death in Sarajevo (Bosnia and Herzegovina) (-8)
Sand Storm (Israel) (-7)
Ma'Rosa (Phillippines) (-6)
Elle (France) (-5)
Julieta (Spain) (-4)
From Afar (Venezuela) (-3)
The Happiest Day in the Life of Olli Mäki (Finland) (-2)
Barakah Meets Barakah (Saudi Arabia) (-1)