2016 Golden Globe Awards predictions

Prediction time! I feel reasonably confident about at least half of these - no way, for instance, La La Land, Natalie Portman, Emma Stone or Viola Davis are losing here. Some of these are true jump balls - Manchester by the Sea vs. Moonlight in both Drama Picture and Screenplay, Casey Affleck vs. Denzel Washington, Moana vs. Zootopia and arguably all of the contenders in Foreign Language Film. Upsets to keep an eye on include Jeff Bridges, Mel Gibson and yes, Ryan Reynolds, who I am begrudgingly predicting for the win here. (My feeling is if Deadpool could inexplicably garner a Comedy/Musical Picture nod, a Reynolds victory is not only plausible but perhaps even likely.)

Check out my predictions below, ranked from most to least likely to prevail. And of course, feel free to chime in with your own two cents as well!

Best Motion Picture – Drama:

1. Manchester by the Sea
2. Moonlight
3. Hacksaw Ridge
4. Lion
5. Hell or High Water

Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy:

1. La La Land
2. Florence Foster Jenkins
3. Deadpool
4. 20th Century Women
5. Sing Street

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama:

1. Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea
2. Denzel Washington – Fences
3. Andrew Garfield - Hacksaw Ridge
4. Viggo Mortensen - Captain Fantastic
5. Joel Edgerton - Loving

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama:

1. Natalie Portman – Jackie
2. Amy Adams – Arrival
3. Isabelle Huppert - Elle
4. Ruth Negga - Loving
5. Jessica Chastain - Miss Sloane

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy:

1. Ryan Reynolds – Deadpool
2. Ryan Gosling – La La Land
3. Hugh Grant - Florence Foster Jenkins
4. Colin Farrell - The Lobster
5. Jonah Hill - War Dogs

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy:

1. Emma Stone – La La Land
2. Meryl Streep – Florence Foster Jenkins
3. Annette Bening - 20th Century Women
4. Hailee Steinfeld - The Edge of Seventeen
5. Lily Collins - Rules Don't Apply

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture:

1. Mahershala Ali – Moonlight
2. Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water
3. Dev Patel - Lion
4. Aaron Taylor-Johnson - Nocturnal Animals
5. Simon Helberg - Florence Foster Jenkins

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture:

1. Viola Davis – Fences
2. Michelle Williams – Manchester by the Sea
3. Nicole Kidman - Lion
4. Naomie Harris - Moonlight
5. Octavia Spencer - Hidden Figures

Best Director – Motion Picture:

1. Damien Chazelle – La La Land
2. Mel Gibson – Hacksaw Ridge
3. Barry Jenkins - Moonlight
4. Kenneth Lonergan - Manchester by the Sea
5. Tom Ford - Nocturnal Animals

Best Screenplay:

1. Manchester by the Sea
2. Moonlight
3. Hell or High Water
4. Nocturnal Animals
5. La La Land

Best Motion Picture – Foreign Language:

1. Toni Erdmann – Germany
2. Neruda – Chile
3. The Salesman – Iran/France
4. Elle – France
5. Divines – France

Best Motion Picture – Animated:

1. Moana
2. Zootopia
3. Kubo and the Two Strings
4. My Life as a Zucchini
5. Sing

Best Original Song – Motion Picture:

1. City of Stars – La La Land
2. How Far I’ll Go – Moana
3. Can’t Stop the Feeling – Trolls
4. Faith – Sing
5. Gold – Gold

Best Original Score – Motion Picture:

1. Justin Hurwitz – La La Land
2. Dustin O’Halloran, Hauschka – Lion
3. Nicholas Britell – Moonlight
4. Johann Johannsson – Arrival
5. Hans Zimmer, Pharrell Williams, Benjamin Wallfisch – Hidden Figures