2019 SAG Award Winner Predictions

The SAG Awards are the best awards.

Not only do they run a breezy two hours (and, more often than not, sport some of the more inspired nominees of awards season), they’re also prone to delivering amazing upsets, like Emily Blunt’s victory last year for A Quiet Place. That turn was not Oscar-nominated, nor was Idris Elba’s SAG-winning performance in Beasts of No Nation. And let’s not forget the time The Birdcage topped The English Patient for Best Ensemble honors.

That being said, are we really in for another jaw-dropper this weekend? Let’s run through these categories…

Best Motion Picture Ensemble

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

2. The Irishman

3. Parasite

4. Jojo Rabbit

5. Bombshell

Bombshell, the lone nominee not up for the Best Picture Oscar, is almost certainly dead last here, with Jojo Rabbit in negligibly stronger contention. Instead, this strikes me as a close three-way affair among The Irishman (which just prevailed in this category over at the Critics’ Choice Awards), Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and Parasite. I give the Tarantino flick an edge here, as The Irishman seems to be conking out a bit in terms of awards season momentum and Parasite failed to land an individual acting nom here - an issue which did not prove fatal to winner Black Panther last year but is decidedly not a helpful stat nonetheless.

Best Female Actor in a Leading Role

1. Renee Zellweger, Judy

2. Lupita Nyong’o, Us

3. Charlize Theron, Bombshell

4. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story

5. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet

If there’s an Emily Blunt-level upset waiting in the wings, it might just be from Nyong’o, the critics’ darling, in the most commercially successful of these five pictures. Still, Zellweger remains the safe bet, with Theron perhaps not terribly far behind, given actors’ apparent affection for Bombshell. Johansson is not happening, nor is Erivo.

Best Male Actor in a Leading Role

1. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker

2. Adam Driver, Marriage Story

3. Taron Egerton, Rocketman

4. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

5. Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari

There are scant signs of the Phoenix train coming to a halt this awards season. Driver, whose film surprisingly missed up in Best Ensemble (a deadly development for its Best Picture Oscar hopes), will be the distant runner-up, with the remaining trio, including uber-campaigner Egerton, trailing even further behind.

Best Female Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story

2. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers

3. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit

4. Margot Robbie, Bombshell

5. Nicole Kidman, Bombshell

Perhaps there’ll be a scattering of sympathy votes for Lopez - probably enough to keep her in second place here - but this was always going to be an easy win for Dern, even had Lopez scored the Golden Globe. Johansson has not prevailed anywhere for her Jojo turn and Bombshell fans are destined to split their votes between Robbie and Kidman - not that the latter’s absence would have much bolstered the former’s bid.

Best Male Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

2. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

3. Al Pacino, The Irishman

4. Joe Pesci, The Irishman

5. Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy

Hanks enters SAG weekend with some leftover buzz from his Cecil B. DeMille win over at the Globes but such feeling won’t be warm enough to overtake Pitt, who’s turning into something of a shoo-in for his first acting Oscar. Pacino and Pesci are looking decreasingly formidable and Just Mercy just never took off this season.

Best Motion Picture Stunt Ensemble

1. Avengers: Endgame

2. Ford v Ferrari

3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

4. Joker

5. The Irishman

This may actually be the most wide-open affair of the evening but probably bank on the action-packed Marvel flick triumphing - Black Panther prevailed last time around, with DC’s Wonder Woman winning the year prior. If, however, voters are inclined for a prestige champion here, it could be anyone’s game.