On the heels of Oscar nominations morning - and with about a month to go before that grand ceremony - here's my final hunch on how this weekend's SAG Awards will go down...
Best Ensemble
- Hidden Figures
- Moonlight
- Manchester by the Sea
- Fences
- Captain Fantastic
Nuts as this may sound, I suspect Hidden Figures will pull the upset here, over Moonlight, which appears to be something of a soft front-runner here. Hidden Figures peaked at just the right time in SAG voting, having already amassed nearly $100 million at the box office; is packed with actors who have worked alongside countless other SAG members; and, of course, mustered that all-important Best Picture Oscar nom. Moonlight could still totally win this, though - the Globe win was important in sustaining some momentum for the film, and there's something so special about the casting of both Chiron and Kevin. Not to be entirely counted out is Manchester by the Sea, though it seems buzz on that one is generally, sadly waning a bit. The other two I don't see as having a prayer, even though I have both Davis and this guy emerging triumphant here...
Best Lead Actor
- Denzel Washington, Fences
- Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
- Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
- Ryan Gosling, La La Land
- Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Yup, I'm going the extra distance in awards commentary craziness here. First off, I think Mortensen, Gosling and Garfield can all rather easily be counted out here, even with Mortensen's cast having scored that jaw-dropping Ensemble nod. The way I see it, if enough voters realize Washington has yet to triumph at SAG, he should win, as something of a career nod. Moreover, though, I get the sense critics (and the HFPA) might be much more keen on Affleck than his acting peers. Perhaps it's Brie Larson's wary response to his Globe victory putting me in this mindset but I suspect he may be weaker than some are thinking among the acting branch.
Best Lead Actress
- Emma Stone, La La Land
- Natalie Portman, Jackie
- Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
- Amy Adams, Arrival
- Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train
Even with Stone looking more and more like an Oscar shoo-in, I wouldn't entirely discount Portman's chances here. I do see Stone as a decent front-runner at SAG, in part because she's the one way the guild can recognize La La Land, but I'm hesitant to quite yet declare Portman dead. Streep, despite that glorious Globes speech, shouldn't be a real factor here, and non-Oscar nominees Adams and Blunt surely needn't get victory speeches together.
Best Supporting Actor
- Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
- Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
- Dev Patel, Lion
- Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
- Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Now this is a tough one. Ali was steamrolling this awards season until Aaron Taylor-Johnson's random Globe win somewhat placed the breaks on his momentum. I still think Ali triumphs here but Bridges could follow in the footsteps of Robert Duvall, Michael Caine, Christopher Walken and Tommy Lee Jones of veteran actors who have prevailed in SAG Supporting Actor. Patel, who was nominated at SAG for Slumdog Millionaire when the Academy didn't bite, could be a factor too. Grant and Hedges, while both wonderful, are sitting this one out.
Best Supporting Actress
- Viola Davis, Fences
- Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
- Nicole Kidman, Lion
- Naomie Harris, Moonlight
- Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Here is the biggest slam dunk of the evening. It's tough to even decide upon who will be the distant runner-up to Davis. I would think it's Williams, though it doesn't much matter - Davis shall triumph here in a cakewalk.
