2018 SAG Awards Nomination Predictions

The Screen Actors Guild Awards are never a cinch to predict, at least in terms of nominations, which is why I so adore them. Almost always, they produce at least one nominee (Hank Azaria in The Birdcage, anyone?) who hasn’t been on the radar of any other awards season precursor.

More likely than not, there will be at least one eyebrow-raising contender on SAG nominations morning. Could it be Julia Roberts in Ben Is Back? How about Russell Hornsby in The Hate U Give or Sissy Spacek in The Old Man and the Gun? While not among my top 10s, I’m also keeping an eye on the likes of Jonathan Pryce in The Wife and Rachel McAdams in Disobedience.

So, here's how I’m thinking the nominations might just pan out, from most to least likely to show up. Feel free, of course, to comment with your own predictions too!

Best Ensemble:

1. The Favourite

2. If Beale Street Could Talk

3. Crazy Rich Asians

4. A Star Is Born

5. Vice
   —

6. BlacKkKlansman

7. Black Panther

8. Widows

9. Green Book

10. Roma

Best Leading Actor:

1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born

2. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

3. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

4. Christian Bale, Vice

5. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
   —

6. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased

7. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate

8. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman

9. Robert Redford, The Old Man and the Gun

10. Ryan Gosling, First Man

Best Leading Actress:

1. Glenn Close, The Wife

2. Olivia Colman, The Favourite

3. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

4. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born

5. Viola Davis, Widows
   —

6. Toni Collette, Hereditary

7. Regina Hall, Support the Girls

8. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns

9. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma

10. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer

Best Supporting Actor:

1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book

2. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

3. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman

4. Sam Rockwell, Vice

5. Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born
   —

6. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy

7. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther

8. Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give

9. Brian Tyree Henry, If Beale Street Could Talk

10. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows

Best Supporting Actress:

1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

2. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

3. Emma Stone, The Favourite

4. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians

5. Amy Adams, Vice
   —

6. Claire Foy, First Man

7. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased

8. Elizabeth Debicki, Widows

9. Thomasin McKenzie, Leave No Trace

10. Sissy Spacek, The Old Man and the Gun

2017 SAG Awards Predictions

On the heels of Oscar nominations morning - and with about a month and a half to go before that grand ceremony - here's my final hunch on how next weekend's SAG Awards will go down...

Best Ensemble

1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2. Get Out
3. Lady Bird
4. Mudbound
5. The Big Sick

It would, despite the strengths of the pictures and performances, be flabbergasting to see Mudbound or especially The Big Sick emerge triumphant here. Instead, this should be a three-way barn burner. Lady Bird, no doubt, has heaps of support in the industry, though I hesitate to predict it when I'm not going with Ronan or Metcalf for the win in their respective categories. Get Out, on the other hand, can totally win without a victory for leading man Kaluuya. I give Three Billboards the edge, as I do have McDormand down for the win, plus the surprise Harrelson nomination seems indicative of high support for the picture among the acting wing.

Best Male Actor

1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
2. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
3. Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
4. James Franco, The Disaster Artist
5. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.

Here's the closest thing to a shoo-in on the film side of the SAG Awards. If Oldman could triumph at the Golden Globes, despite publicly lambasting that body, there's scant reason to believe he won't handily prevail here (and later at BAFTA, of course). It's tough to even forecast a runner-up - prior to the sexual abuse allegations, it would have been Globe winner Franco but now Chalamet and Kaluuya probably earn more votes, with Washington still clearly dead last.

Best Female Actor

1. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
3. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
4. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
5. Judi Dench, Victoria & Abdul

Much as I adored Dame Judi, I would concede she hasn't a shot at victory (though keep an eye on her in advance of Oscar nominations morning). Hawkins, given the lack of The Shape of Water in Ensemble, is also not likely and if Robbie couldn't triumph at the Globes, she's probably not prevailing here either. This will be a jump ball between the two Globe winners and it's hardly easy to argue for one over the other. One stat perhaps in Ronan's favor is no performer to date has earned two Best Female Actor SAG Awards - McDormand would mark the very first. I suspect, however, given how universally loved she is in the industry and among her peers (plus how well-liked Three Billboards evidently is within the Guild), McDormand will indeed achieve this feat.

Best Supporting Male Actor

1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
4. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
5. Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes

The Carell nomination is a baffling one, given his sitcom-level half of Battle of the Sexes is vastly inferior to Emma Stone's more compelling scenes. He's not a factor here, nor is Jenkins (whose film failed to land in Ensemble) or Harrelson (who just hasn't been much of an awards season player). If not for Harrelson's presence, I suspect I'd be siding with Globe winner Rockwell...but could it be that Harrelson siphons off just enough Three Billboards fans from his co-star to hand Dafoe victory? I suspect it just might happen, though, given The Florida Project's lack of Ensemble nod, I'm hardly confident.

Best Supporting Female Actor

1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya
2. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
3. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick
4. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
5. Hong Chau, Downsizing

Chau doesn't have a prayer and, despite their films earning Ensemble nominations, nor do Blige or Hunter. It's a coin flip between Janney and Metcalf, as it has been all awards season. Both are beloved "actor's actors," stars of the big and small screens and stage. Janney's SAG history is a mixed bag - on one hand, she earned two Drama Actress prizes for The West Wing, which is an impressive feat. On the flip side, despite four Emmy nominations (including two wins for the role), she's never earned a nod for her current work on Mom. By the time the SAG Awards came to fruition, Roseanne, then on its seventh season, was fading from the awards circuit, so there's no Metcalf track record here to speak of. I suspect, given the immense plethora of actors she's worked alongside over the years, Janney has an ever-so-slight edge but it could totally be Metcalf, especially if voters who aren't inclined to award Lady Bird in Ensemble or Lead Actress wish to at least throw it a bone somewhere.

2017 SAG Awards Nominations

Congratulations to this year's SAG Award nominees!

Best Ensemble

The Big Sick
Get Out
Lady Bird
Mudbound
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Male Actor

Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
James Franco, The Disaster Artist
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.

Best Female Actor

Judi Dench, Victoria & Abdul
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird

Best Supporting Male Actor

Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboard Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Supporting Female Actor

Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Hong Chau, Downsizing
Holly Hunter, The Big Sick
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird

Best Stunt Ensemble

Baby Driver
Dunkirk
Logan
War for the Planet of the Apes
Wonder Woman

2017 SAG Awards Nomination Predictions

Oh hell yes! The Screen Actors Guild Awards are never easy to predict, at least in nominations, which is why I so enjoy them. This is, after all, the guild that recognized the likes of Hank Azaria in The Birdcage, Stockard Channing in Smoke, Cloris Leachman in Spanglish, Gena Rowlands in Unhook the Stars and Gwen Verdon in Marvin's Room, which virtually no other precursor had them on their radar.

Odds are, there will be at least one eyebrow-raising nominee on SAG nominations morning. (Last year, it was Emily Blunt in The Girl on the Train that left awards season junkies giggling.) Could it be living legends Jane Fonda and/or Robert Redford in Our Souls at Night? How about Debra Winger in The Lovers? Or perhaps even a posthumous nod for Carrie Fisher in Star Wars: The Last Jedi or Harry Dean Stanton in Lucky? There are plenty of obscure possibilities here.

With that said, here's what I'm thinking goes down, from most to least likely to be nominated. Feel free, of course, to comment with your own predictions too!

Best Ensemble

1. The Post
2. Lady Bird
3. Call Me By Your Name
4. Mudbound
5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
   ---
6. Get Out
7. The Shape of Water
8. Dunkirk
9. The Florida Project
10. Murder on the Orient Express

Best Lead Actor

1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
3. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
4. Tom Hanks, The Post
5. James Franco, The Disaster Artist
   ---
6. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger
7. Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
8. Jacob Tremblay, Wonder
9. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.
10. Harry Dean Stanton, Lucky

Best Lead Actress

1. Meryl Streep, The Post
2. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
3. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
4. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
5. Judi Dench, Victoria & Abdul
   ---
6. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
7. Jessica Chastain, Molly's Game
8. Annette Bening, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool
9. Brooklynn Prince, The Florida Project
10. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes

Best Supporting Actor

1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me By Your Name
4. Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name
5. Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
   ---
6. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
7. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water
8. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound
9. Patrick Stewart, Logan
10. Idris Elba, Molly's Game

Best Supporting Actress

1. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
2. Allison Janney, I, Tonya
3. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick
4. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
5. Julia Roberts, Wonder
   ---
6. Tiffany Haddish, Girls Trip
7. Catherine Keener, Get Out
8. Lois Smith, Marjorie Prime
9. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
10. Carrie Fisher, Star Wars: The Last Jedi

2016 SAG Awards winners

Congratulations to all of this year's fantastic SAG Awards winners! (And Lifetime Achievement honoree Lily Tomlin!)

Best Ensemble
Hidden Figures

Best Lead Actor
Denzel Washington, Fences

Best Lead Actress
Emma Stone, La La Land

Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight

Best Supporting Actress
Viola Davis, Fences