2025 SAG Actor Awards Nomination Predictions

Best Motion Picture Ensemble

1. One Battle After Another

2. Sinners

3. Marty Supreme

4. Hamnet

5. Wicked: For Good
   —

6. Jay Kelly

7. Frankenstein

8. Sentimental Value

9. It Was Just an Accident

10. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

One Battle After Another, Sinners, Marty Supreme and Hamnet should be safe bets to make the cut here - should any miss, it will be a startling gut punch, on the level of The Brutalist’s snub last year.

The suspense likely lies with that final slot. Wicked was so adored with the last SAG awards that Jonathan Bailey, out of nowhere, made the cut for an individual nomination. Surely, that love will lessen this year, given Wicked: For Good’s more lukewarm critical and commercial reception - but will there be just enough affection to still land it an Ensemble nom? I suspect there just might, in part given the lack of a clear alternative.

Jay Kelly, for instance, sports a cast of beloved actors and could see individual SAG noms for both George Clooney and Adam Sandler, but hasn’t exactly proven an awards season juggernaut. Frankenstein has had a more robust presence but not so much in terms of cast recognition - at Critics’ Choice, for instance, it earned 11 noms but couldn’t break into their Casting/Ensemble lineup of six. Some are predicting Sentimental Value but I worry about a slight underperformance with SAG, given their penchant for being lukewarm on international films.

Ultimately, I do go with Wicked: For Good, in part because I also see Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande hanging on for individual SAG noms, even if their Oscar hopes are looking increasingly uncertain.

Best Female Actor in a Leading Role

1. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

2. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

3. Emma Stone, Bugonia

4. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good

5. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another
   —

6. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value

7. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue

8. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt

9. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee

10. Jennifer Lawrence, Die My Love

Where I have confidence in four of the Best Ensemble contenders, I only feel certainty about Byrne and Buckley in Best Female Actor in a Leading Role.

After all, this is a category where we’ve seen the likes of Pamela Anderson, Jennifer Hudson and Amy Adams surface in recent years. We could be in for comparable curveballs, like Roberts making the cut, despite After the Hunt’s collapse as an awards season contender, or Hudson emerging, given the positive audience reception to Song Sung Blue.

In the end, I think Stone makes it here - Bugonia may be divisive but it’s also widely seen (more so than say, The Testament of Ann Lee) and often, earlier releases will fare well here (SAG nominee Judi Dench in Victoria & Abdul, for instance, comes to mind). If, as I suspect, Wicked: For Good cracks Best Ensemble, there is a good chance Erivo follows suit with an individual nom. That leaves Infiniti and Reinsve and again, I fear (hopefully, wrongfully so) Sentimental Value may not resonate quite as much with SAG as it has critics’ organizations.

Best Male Actor in a Leading Role

1. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another

2. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme

3. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon

4. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

5. George Clooney, Jay Kelly
   —

6. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

7. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams

8. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent

9. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein

10. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine

Much like with the top prize, this rings of a race with four reasonably sure bets and a doubtful jump ball for the final slot. With AMPAS, I suspect Moura, on the heels of a likely Golden Globe win and all of the buzz generated from that, will make the final five. Here, I’m inclined to give the edge to Clooney, though could also fathom White making the cut, ala Hudson for Respect and Taron Egerton for Rocketman. Perhaps Edgerton will land at BAFTA? Sadly, I’m a little skeptical of his odds here.

Best Female Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

2. Amy Madigan, Weapons

3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value

4. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good

5. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine
   —

6. Odessa A'zion, Marty Supreme

7. Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

8. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners

9. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value

10. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme

We are blessed to have such a busy Best Supporting Actress race this year! Such, however, makes it hard to confidently make predictions.

I think Taylor and Madigan are reasonably sure bets, but there are so many contenders that I could fathom a Regina King-level snub of either. Despite my hesitation to predict much Sentimental Value at SAG, I do think Fanning scores a nom, while I’m more bearish on Lilleaas. If Erivo’s in, Grande will be too. And if Blunt could land SAG recognition for The Girl on the Train and Mary Poppins Returns and even win for A Quiet Place, I have to think she’s a formidable contender here, even if the performance is polarizing and the film flopped.

That said, any of these 10 could undoubtedly make the cut, as could Regina Hall. SAG has a curious history of recognizing actors whose last names appear early in the alphabet - if that again proves the case, A'zion could have it made in the shade. And Close is such a SAG mainstay, with two wins over 10 career nominations, but can she overcome her film’s middling presence so far this season? I’m not so sure, especially with the first two Knives Out scoring nothing at SAG, though if anyone could, it’s a beloved icon like Close.

Best Male Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another

2. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

3. Paul Mescal, Hamnet

4. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value

5. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly
   —

6. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein

7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners

8. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good

9. Miles Caton, Sinners

10. Billy Crudup, Jay Kelly

Like in Best Male Actor in a Leading Role, the suspense here looks to be exclusively around that fifth slot, with Sandler and Elordi closely contending. My feeling is if Sandler could score a SAG nom for Hustle, he can surely do the same for Jay Kelly. On the other hand, at this point, Frankenstein feels more relevant than Jay Kelly in the overall awards season. If Sinners resonates with SAG voters to an even greater extent than anticipated, it could be Lindo or Caton taking that spot. And yes, after his appearance last year, I suppose we shouldn’t completely count out a Bailey return!

2024 SAG Awards Nomination Predictions

Rankings are from most to least likely to be nominated:

Best Motion Picture Ensemble

1. Conclave

2. Wicked

3. Emilia Pérez

4. Sing Sing

5. Saturday Night
   —

6. The Brutalist

7. Anora

8. A Complete Unknown

9. Nickel Boys

10. His Three Daughters

Conclave, Emilia Pérez and Wicked ought to be safe - a snub for any of them, all undoubtedly widely seen by voters and sporting formidable casts, would be shocking. While Sing Sing’s momentum has dwindled somewhat, it’s an ensemble piece about the power of performance and should, you would think, resonate among actors. It’s that fifth slot that’s tough to project. Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown and Nickel Boys have no shortage of awards season buzz but I suspect it may be Saturday Night that makes the cut. It recalls the likes of Bobby and The Butler, pictures with sprawling ensembles that flatlined as serious Oscar contenders but nonetheless surfaced here.

Best Female Actor in a Leading Role

1. Demi Moore, The Substance

2. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked

3. Mikey Madison, Anora

4. Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez

5. Kate Winslet, Lee
   —

6. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl

7. Angelina Jolie, Maria

8. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths

9. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here

10. Amy Adams, Nightbitch

Torres may have just scored the Drama Actress Golden Globe - a huge development, considering only two recipients of that prize have not gone on to Oscar nominations (and one of them, Kate Winslet in 2008, was instead nominated and won for another film) - but she’ll nonetheless be a longshot here, given SAG’s notorious aversion to turns from foreign language films. Her mother, the legendary Fernanda Montenegro, was not a SAG nominee for Central Station in 1998, nor was Isabelle Huppert, another recent Drama Actress Globe winner.

Erivo, Gascón, Madison and Moore ring as reasonably safe, given the robust buzz for their turns and films. My hunch is that fifth slot goes to one of the past Oscar winners - and it might just be Winslet, given the aggressive campaign she’s running, plus SAG’s penchant for recognizing early releases (e.g. Jennifer Hudson in Respect and Judi Dench in Victoria & Abdul). Kidman and Jolie are right up there, though, and don’t forget Adams managed to make the SAG cut for Hillbilly Elegy. Jean-Baptiste has seen a gangbusters run with the critics’ awards but SAG historically isn’t keen on Mike Leigh pictures. She wasn’t a SAG nominee for Secrets & Lies, nor was Sally Hawkins for Happy-Go-Lucky.

Best Male Actor in a Leading Role

1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist

2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave

3. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown

4. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing

5. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love
   —

6. Hugh Grant, Heretic

7. Daniel Craig, Queer

8. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man

9. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain

10. Glen Powell, Hit Man

This, too, rings of a lineup with a somewhat safe quartet and then a jump ball for that final spot. There’s a case to be made for any of the gents above but I’m going with a curveball. Bob Marley: One Love may have been released nearly an entire year ago but it was a commercial success and, despite lukewarm reviews for the film itself, scored positive notices for its leading man. Ben-Adir made the BAFTA longlist for Leading Actor and SAG has a history of remembering performances forgotten by other precursors. Thus, it shouldn’t be a jaw-dropper if he surfaces here.

Best Female Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez

2. Ariana Grande, Wicked

3. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave

4. Margaret Qualley, The Substance

5. Jamie Lee Curtis, The Last Showgirl
   —

6. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson

7. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist

8. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez

9. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys

10. Joan Chen, Didi

Grande, Rossellini and Saldaña are highly likely for recognition here and everywhere else moving forward. Qualley should be in decent shape too, at least at SAG - the AMPAS aversion to horror does make me nervous for her/her film’s chances come Oscar noms morning. So, yet again, the real suspense may be for the fifth slot. Emilia Pérez has plenty of momentum but I hesitate to predict Gomez when SAG has ignored her for every season of Only Murders in the Building (though that could change this year). I’m also wary of predicting Deadwyler when The Piano Lesson has so struggled to stay relevant in the awards season. I think Jones is a nominee at BAFTA and the Oscars but I’m less confident here. Ultimately, I’m going with another dark horse who also happened to make the BAFTA longlist.

Curtis has worked with just about everyone in the industry and it was SAG that made her a serious contender for Everything Everywhere All at Once. It’s possible not enough voters have seen The Last Showgirl and that could doom her (again, early releases tend to fare better than late ones) - but in a crowded and uncertain field, high name rec and goodwill could be enough to eek out a nomination (though I’m not sure it’ll translate at the Oscars). Beyond the names above, Monica Barbaro, Elle Fanning, Carol Kane, Natasha Lyonne and Adriana Paz could also show up.

Best Male Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

2. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II

3. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist

4. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown

5. Stanley Tucci, Conclave
   —

6. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing

7. Yura Borisov, Anora

8. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice

9. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked

10. Mark Eydelshteyn, Anora

With Culkin seemingly steamrolling to victory, this isn’t the most exciting of the acting fields but in terms of filling out the category, there remains suspense. He, Washington and Pearce should be in good shape here, though I wonder if the sleepy reception for Gladiator II could trip Washington up on Oscar noms morning. I suspect Norton is a nominee would note, for what it’s worth, that SAG ignored him for both Primal Fear and American History X. In a contest between a beloved character actor who’s worked with everyone under the sun (Tucci) and two relative newcomers (Borisov and Maclin), I’m inclined to go with the former, at least here.

2022 SAG Awards Nomination Predictions

The SAG Awards are truly the awards season crème de la crème, often having the finest taste among precursors, with a penchant for throwing sorely needed curveballs to rattle the pre-Oscar landscape.

This is, after all, the same inspired body that preferred The Birdcage over The English Patient in Best Ensemble; honored the amazing likes of Stockard Channing in Smoke and Cloris Leachman in Spanglish when few others took notice; and provided crucial momentum to Parasite in its bid for awards season glory (ditto CODA last year).

Will SAG have more surprises in store this time around? Let’s dive into each category.

Best Motion Picture Ensemble

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once

2. The Banshees of Inisherin

3. The Fabelmans

4. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

5. The Woman King
   —

6. Women Talking

7. Babylon

8. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

9. Top Gun: Maverick

10. Elvis

The current Best Picture front-runners - Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Banshees of Inisherin, and The Fabelmans - should be reasonably safe here. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, with its sprawling, starry ensemble and rave reviews, also strikes me as a likely bet, though I hesitate a little, given the first Knives Out didn’t make the SAG cut. That final slot could go a bunch of different ways - and beyond these half-dozen contenders, All Quiet on the Western Front, RRR, and Triangle of Sadness can’t be counted out. I lean ever-so-slightly toward The Woman King over Women Talking and Babylon. Actors adore Viola Davis (see more below) and her ensembles tend to fare well here too, with The Help triumphing and Doubt, Fences, and Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom scoring nominations.

Best Female Actor in a Leading Role

1. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

2. Cate Blanchett, TÁR

3. Viola Davis, The Woman King

4. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans

5. Aubrey Plaza, Emily the Criminal
   —

6. Margot Robbie, Babylon

7. Danielle Deadwyler, Till

8. Ana de Armas, Blonde

9. Emma Thompson, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande

10. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light

The Oscar favorites, Yeoh and Blanchett, are sure to score SAG noms - as is Davis, a six-time winner here (five individual wins, three in film and two TV, plus Ensemble for The Help). Williams may not be quite as safe (she did miss at SAG for Blue Valentine) but, odds are, she’s making the cut here too. Here’s another jump ball, however, for that fifth slot. The safest bet is to go with Robbie or Deadwyler but I’m inclined to lean toward a true jaw-dropper - Aubrey Plaza, who surfaced early on in the awards season with bids at the Gothams and Indie Spirits. Not to be overlooked, Emily the Criminal recently hit Netflix, just as SAG voters are taking to their ballots, and Plaza’s got some extra buzz (and another potential SAG nom) for her acclaimed turn on The White Lotus: Sicily. This may not come to fruition but, considering this is a body that’s given Best Actress noms to the long-shot likes of Sarah Silverman (I Smile Back), Hilary Swank (Conviction,) and Gena Rowlands (Unhook the Stars), it’s a plenty plausible appearance.

Best Male Actor in a Leading Role

1. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin

2. Brendan Fraser, The Whale

3. Austin Butler, Elvis

4. Bill Nighy, Living

5. Paul Mescal, Aftersun
   —

6. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection

7. Ralph Fiennes, The Menu

8. Adam Sandler, Hustle

9. Adam Driver, White Noise

10. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick

Not to keep repeating myself but…watch that last slot. Farrell, Fraser, and Butler will cruise to nominations here, as should Nighy, whose film is backed by the awards season masters at Sony Pictures Classics. It’s challenging to forecast who joins them when the front-runners, Farrell and Fraser in particular, have so dominated the Best Actor conversation and precursors thus far. He may have missed at the Globes (though, frankly, who gives a shit) but Mescal has otherwise had a fairly healthy run, not winning much of note but often showing up as a critics’ award nominee, including with Critics’ Choice. And A24 is running a robust campaign for him, though they’re doing the same for Pope, who missed at Critics’ Choice but did land at the Globes. My hunch is the slot does ultimately go to one of the A24 gents, though Fiennes or Sandler could sneak in there as a surprise. I don’t see Cruise surfacing here, though an Oscar nom remains in the cards.

Best Female Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin

2. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

3. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once

4. Janelle Monáe, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

5. Carey Mulligan, She Said
   —

6. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once

7. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness

8. Keke Palmer, Nope

9. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking

10. Hong Chau, The Whale

Watch that fifth slot. And fourth. And third. Actually, just about anything could happen in this race, though Condon should be a safe bet. Bassett and/or Curtis may miss the Oscar cut but they’re true actor’s actors and have surfaced at SAG before (Bassett for Ruby’s Bucket of Blood & Betty and Coretta, Curtis for True Lies). Monáe has scored MVP notices (and a Critics’ Choice bid) for Glass Onion, a film very much in contention for Best Ensemble honors; Mulligan’s earned raves (and a Globe nom) for She Said, a contender that has somewhat dwindled in momentum but hardly disappeared; Hsu has a Critics’ Choice nom and plethora of praise for a picture that only continues to sky-rocket in momentum…there are strong, valid cases to make for all of these contenders and more. My gut says this quintet but it could just as easily be a combo of Condon, Bassett, Hsu, Buckley, and Chau or perhaps a fivesome of Condon, Curtis, Monae, Palmer, and Foy. It’s a category blissfully brimming with suspense. Intriguing, if a tad less unpredictable, is the landscape over in…

Best Male Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin

3. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans

4. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans

5. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
   —

6. Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse

7. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway

8. Brad Pitt, Babylon

9. Mark Rylance, Bones & All

10. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking

This category is increasingly giving me 1949 Best Supporting Actress vibes. That was a lineup that saw two films (Come to the Stable and Pinky) score noms for a pair of their performers (Celeste Holm & Elsa Lanchester and Ethel Barrymore & Ethel Waters), only for the fifth contender (Mercedes McCambridge in All the King’s Men) to prevail, and perhaps comfortably at that. That said, this quintet is hardly locked in, with only Quan and Gleeson ringing as true shoo-ins. Redmayne, who surfaced at the Globes, could prove a Jared Leto in The Little Things-level contender, and Henry, who’s scored some career-best notices and appearances at critics’ awards, continues to be in the conversation. I can fathom a scenario where Redmayne edges out Keoghan here, only for the latter to still triumph on Oscar noms morning…but I’ll stick with the latter making the cut at both.

2021 SAG Awards Nomination Predictions

Let’s just tell it like it is. The SAG Awards are the best awards.

From the brilliant likes of The Birdcage and Black Panther triumphing for Best Ensemble honors to countless inspired acting nominees, among them amazing curveballs like Michelle Pfeiffer (White Oleander), Hank Azaria (The Birdcage, which they just adored) and Gena Rowlands & Marisa Tomei (Unhook the Stars), SAG has a history of delivering the goods in fun and surprising ways.

Is SAG about to throw its usual wrenches into this awards season? Let’s dive into each category with some predictions.

Best Motion Picture Ensemble

1. Belfast

2. The Power of the Dog

3. West Side Story

4. Don’t Look Up

5. CODA
   —

6. Licorice Pizza

7. The French Dispatch

8. King Richard

9. Mass

10. House of Gucci

Given their formidable awards season performances thus far, it would be truly stunning to see any of Belfast, The Power of the Dog or West Side Story miss here. Beyond that trio, this is a tough one to forecast. Don’t Look Up and The French Dispatch have the sprawling, starry ensembles but the former is proving one of the year’s most polarizing contenders, while the latter hasn’t been an especially robust player at all. CODA and Licorice Pizza seem safer for Best Picture Oscar noms and could have enough support to edge out the splashier casts for the 4th and 5th slots here. Ultimately, I do think timing will help Don’t Look Up, with voters streaming it on Netflix just as ballots are being sent in. Not to be counted out are King Richard and Mass, the latter of which should be a shoo-in here but has the misfortune of a distributor that’s rarely had much luck striking awards season gold.

Best Female Actor in a Leading Role

1. Kristen Stewart, Spencer

2. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter

3. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos

4. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci

5. Jennifer Hudson, Respect
   —

6. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

7. Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza

8. Emilia Jones, CODA

9. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers

10. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story

Stewart’s a sure bet and Colman/Kidman/Gaga strike me as solid too, albeit perhaps on a second tier. That fifth slot, though, is a toughie. Hudson has barely had a presence this awards season but early releases (like Respect) have a tendency to surface at SAG - a pattern that perhaps helps the likes of Chastain and Jones, too. Haim and Zegler could ride their films’ momentum to nominations and Cruz scored a trio of SAG noms to go along with all three career Oscar bids. My gut says Hudson might just be this year’s “what the?” SAG nominee but it’s such a close call.

Best Male Actor in a Leading Role

1. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog

2. Will Smith, King Richard

3. Andrew Garfield, tick, tick…BOOM!

4. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth

5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up
   —

6. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano

7. Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos

8. Nicolas Cage, Pig

9. Joaquin Phoenix, C’mon C’mon

10. Mahershala Ali, Swan Song

Again, I feel most of the suspense here lies in the fifth slot, with Cumberbatch & Smith safe in their spots and Garfield & Washington in reasonably comfortable positions right behind them. Dinklage has surfaced in this category before (for The Station Agent) and I can oddly fathom Bardem making the cut, even if he’s rarely cited as an MVP of Being the Ricardos. But my gut says it’s DiCaprio who ekes it out. He rarely misses at SAG when in awards contention, even making the cut for J. Edgar, and his notices for Don’t Look Up have been generally strong, even from critics of the picture itself.

Best Female Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog

2. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story

3. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard

4. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast

5. Rita Moreno, West Side Story
   —

6. Judi Dench, Belfast

7. Marlee Matlin, CODA

8. Ruth Negga, Passing

9. Ann Dowd, Mass

10. Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up

Dunst, DeBose and Ellis look solid for nominations and odds are Balfe makes it too, even if she hasn’t had the formidable run many expected earlier in the season. Moreno is the quintessential SAG Best Supporting Actress nominee, a legendary veteran along the lines of Gwen Verdon (Marvin’s Room), Cloris Leachman (Spanglish) and Ruby Dee (American Gangster) who’s within striking distance of an Oscar nom but hardly a sure thing. I suspect she makes it but it’s just as easy to fathom Dench or Matlin making the cut if SAG falls especially hard for one of their pictures - and if Mass can somehow score Best Ensemble honors, Dowd may be along for the ride as a solo nominee. In a perfect world, both Negga and Tessa Thompson would be nominees everywhere for Passing but I’m not getting my hopes up.

Best Male Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog

2. Troy Kotsur, CODA

3. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast

4. Jamie Dornan, Belfast

5. J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos
   —

6. Jared Leto, House of Gucci

7. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza

8. Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar

9. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog

10. Jon Bernthal, King Richard

Not to sound like a broken record but…watch that fifth slot lol. Smit-McPhee, Kotsur, Hinds and Dornan should all be in good shape both here and on Oscar noms morning, barring Belfast losing momentum as the season progresses (which is plausible). My sense is Simmons takes the fifth slot, both here and at the Oscars, as a sort of “welcome back!” nod. It could be Leto but if the Globes wouldn’t embrace his divisive House of Gucci turn, I’m a little skeptical SAG and/or AMPAS will bite. Cooper’s been mostly absent from the precursors, The Tender Bar looks poised to arrive without much fanfare and Plemons (who is fantastic) has been completely overshadowed by his co-star. Bet on Simmons but prepare for the possibility of Leto.

2020 Golden Globe/SAG Nomination Predictions

At last!

I haven’t made a set of awards season predictions since my stab at Oscar nominations back in September - a list that included the likes of C’mon, C’mon, The Humans and Respect, none of which ultimately scored qualifying runs for this cycle.

I’m going to continue holding off on the Oscars until the Globes and SAG have had their say. With these nominations on the horizon next week, you know what time it is…TIME FOR PREDICTIONS!!

First off, I feel reasonably confident these precursors will look at least a tad different from what the critics’ awards have thus far offered up.

Mank, for instance, didn’t exactly catch fire among the critics but expect the Hollywood Foreign Press Association to shower it with at least a modest showing of love. The HFPA may also be more inclined to embrace the likes of News of the World and especially Borat Subsequent Moviefilm and The Prom, the latter two taking advantage of the ghost towns that are this year’s Comedy/Musical categories. Likewise, over at SAG, the likes of Amy Adams and Glenn Close, headlining a film decidedly not adored by the critics, are liable to surface.

The likes of Paul Raci and Youn Yuh-jung have proven fierce contenders with the critics but are hardly shoo-ins with these voting bodies. And then there’s Maria Bakalova, who’s charged out of the starting gates as something of a Supporting Actress front-runner but will be contending in Lead at the Globes - and is no guarantee at SAG (or BAFTA after that).

Pictures like The Personal History of David Copperfield and Wild Mountain Thyme, neither of which have much in the way of momentum, may also take advantage of the barren nature of the Comedy/Musical lineups at the Globes - only to still have no prayer on Oscar noms morning.

There are also late-breaking contenders, like Judas and the Black Messiah and Malcolm and Marie, hoping to make a splash. The former’s Daniel Kaluuya appears destined for that second Oscar nom but it remains a question mark how much it’ll be embraced in other categories. And then there’s the latter film’s Zendaya and John David Washington, who’ve generated heaps of chatter for their robust turns but will need to overcome crowded categories and Malcolm and Marie’s otherwise mixed reviews.

Even in a more slender season as this, these are tough races to forecast - and it’s easy to picture the Globes and SAG producing very different quintets in the acting fields, ultimately leaving it to BAFTA to provide some clarity.

Anyway, here’s what I’m thinking goes down next week. Who do you have scoring GG/SAG glory?

Golden Globes:

Best Motion Picture - Drama

1. Nomadland

2. Da 5 Bloods

3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

4. The Trial of the Chicago 7

5. Mank
   —

6. One Night in Miami

7. Promising Young Woman

8. Judas and the Black Messiah

9. News of the World

10. The Father

Best Motion Picture - Musical/Comedy

1. The Prom

2. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

3. Hamilton

4. Emma

5. The Personal History of David Copperfield
   —

6. Wild Mountain Thyme

7. Palm Springs

8. The King of Staten Island

9. On the Rocks

10. Enola Holmes

Best Director

1. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland

2. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods

3. David Fincher, Mank

4. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari

5. Regina King, One Night in Miami
   —

6. Paul Greengrass, News of the World

7. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7

8. Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman

9. George C. Wolfe, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

10. George Clooney, The Midnight Sky

Best Screenplay

1. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland

2. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7

3. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari

4. Ruben Santiago-Hudson, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

5. Jack Fincher, Mank
   —

6. Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman

7. Florian Zeller and Christopher Hampton, The Father

8. Spike Lee, Danny Bilson, Paul De Meo and Kevin Willmott, Da 5 Bloods

9. Kemp Powers, One Night in Miami

10. Kelly Reichardt and Jonathan Raymond, First Cow

Best Actress - Drama

1. Frances McDormand, Nomadland

2. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

3. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman

4. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead

5. Zendaya, Malcolm and Marie
   —

6. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman

7. Andra Day, The People vs. Billie Holiday

8. Kate Winslet, Ammonite

9. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy

10. Sidney Flanigan, Never Rarely Sometimes Always

Best Actor - Drama

1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

2. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal

3. Anthony Hopkins, The Father

4. Gary Oldman, Mank

5. Tom Hanks, News of the World
   —

6. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods

7. Steven Yeun, Minari

8. John David Washington, Malcolm and Marie

9. Ben Affleck, The Way Back

10. George Clooney, The Midnight Sky

Best Actress - Musical/Comedy

1. Meryl Streep, The Prom

2. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

3. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit

4. Anya Taylor-Joy, Emma

5. Emily Blunt, Wild Mountain Thyme
   —

6. Millie Bobby Brown, Enola Holmes

7. Meryl Streep, Let Them All Talk

8. Cristin Milioti, Palm Springs

9. Rashida Jones, On the Rocks

10. Rachel McAdams, Eurovision Song Contest

Best Actor - Musical/Comedy

1. Sacha Baron Cohen, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

2. Dev Patel, The Personal History of David Copperfield

3. Andy Samberg, Palm Springs

4. Pete Davidson, The King of Staten Island

5. Jamie Dornan, Wild Mountain Thyme
   —

6. Leslie Odom, Jr., Hamilton

7. Lin-Manuel Miranda, Hamilton

8. James Corden, The Prom

9. Will Ferrell, Eurovision Song Contest

10. Mel Gibson, Fatman

Best Supporting Actress

1. Amanda Seyfried, Mank

2. Olivia Colman, The Father

3. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy

4. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman

5. Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian
   —

6. Youn Yuh-jung, Minari

7. Helena Zengel, News of the World

8. Nicole Kidman, The Prom

9. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite

10. Candice Bergen, Let Them All Talk

Best Supporting Actor

1. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami

2. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7

3. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah

4. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods

5. Bill Murray, On the Rocks
   —

6. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal

7. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7

8. Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7

9. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami

10. David Strathairn, Nomadland

Best Animated Feature

1. Soul

2. Over the Moon

3. Onward

4. Wolfwalkers

5. The Croods: A New Age
   —

6. Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon

7. Trolls World Tour

8. The Willloughbys

9. SpongeBob Movie: Sponge on the Run

10. No. 7 Cherry Lane

Best Foreign Language Film

1. Minari

2. Another Round

3. The Life Ahead

4. Quo Vadis, Aida?

5. Night of the Kings
   —

6. Never Gonna Snow Again

7. Apples

8. A Sun

9. My Little Sister

10. I’m No Longer Here

Best Original Score

1. Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, Mank

2. Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, Soul

3. James Newton Howard, News of the World

4. Emile Mosseri, Minari

5. Hans Zimmer and David Fleming, Hillbilly Elegy
   —

6. Christopher Willis, The Personal History of David Copperfield

7. Terence Blanchard, One Night in Miami

8. Daniel Pemberton, The Trial of the Chicago 7

9. Ludwid Göransson, Tenet

10. Terence Blanchard, Da 5 Bloods

Best Original Song

1. “Speak Now,” One Night in Miami

2. “Seen,” The Life Ahead

3. “Hear My Voice,” The Trial of the Chicago 7

4. “Wear Your Crown,” The Prom

5. “Carried Me with You,” Onward
   —

6. “Rocket to the Moon,” Over the Moon

7. “Queen Bee,” Emma

8. “Hometown,” Eurovision Song Contest

9. “The Wuhan Flu,” Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

10. “Turntables,” All In: The Fight for Democracy

Screen Actors Guild Awards:

Best Motion Picture Ensemble

1. Da 5 Bloods

2. One Night in Miami

3. The Trial of the Chicago 7

4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

5. Minari
   —

6. The Prom

7. Mank

8. Promising Young Woman

9. Nomadland

10. The Boys in the Band

Best Female Actor in a Leading Role

1. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

2. Frances McDormand, Nomadland

3. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman

4. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman

5. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy
   —

6. Meryl Streep, The Prom

7. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead

8. Elisabeth Moss, The Invisible Man

9. Zendaya, Malcolm and Marie

10. Kate Winslet, Ammonite

Best Male Actor in a Leading Role

1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

2. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal

3. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods

4. Anthony Hopkins, The Father

5. Gary Oldman, Mank
   —

6. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami

7. Tom Hanks, News of the World

8. Steven Yeun, Minari

9. John David Washington, Malcolm and Marie

10. Ben Affleck, The Way Back

Best Female Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Amanda Seyfried, Mank

2. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman

3. Olivia Colman, The Father

4. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy

5. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite
   —

6. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

7. Youn Yuh-jung, Minari

8. Helena Zengel, News of the World

9. Toni Collette, I’m Thinking of Ending Things

10. Candice Bergen, Let Them All Talk

Best Male Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods

2. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami

3. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7

4. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah

5. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
   —

6. Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7

7. Glynn Turman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

8. David Strathairn, Nomadland

9. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7

10. Bill Murray, On the Rocks