2021 SAG Awards Nomination Predictions

Let’s just tell it like it is. The SAG Awards are the best awards.

From the brilliant likes of The Birdcage and Black Panther triumphing for Best Ensemble honors to countless inspired acting nominees, among them amazing curveballs like Michelle Pfeiffer (White Oleander), Hank Azaria (The Birdcage, which they just adored) and Gena Rowlands & Marisa Tomei (Unhook the Stars), SAG has a history of delivering the goods in fun and surprising ways.

Is SAG about to throw its usual wrenches into this awards season? Let’s dive into each category with some predictions.

Best Motion Picture Ensemble

1. Belfast

2. The Power of the Dog

3. West Side Story

4. Don’t Look Up

5. CODA
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6. Licorice Pizza

7. The French Dispatch

8. King Richard

9. Mass

10. House of Gucci

Given their formidable awards season performances thus far, it would be truly stunning to see any of Belfast, The Power of the Dog or West Side Story miss here. Beyond that trio, this is a tough one to forecast. Don’t Look Up and The French Dispatch have the sprawling, starry ensembles but the former is proving one of the year’s most polarizing contenders, while the latter hasn’t been an especially robust player at all. CODA and Licorice Pizza seem safer for Best Picture Oscar noms and could have enough support to edge out the splashier casts for the 4th and 5th slots here. Ultimately, I do think timing will help Don’t Look Up, with voters streaming it on Netflix just as ballots are being sent in. Not to be counted out are King Richard and Mass, the latter of which should be a shoo-in here but has the misfortune of a distributor that’s rarely had much luck striking awards season gold.

Best Female Actor in a Leading Role

1. Kristen Stewart, Spencer

2. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter

3. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos

4. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci

5. Jennifer Hudson, Respect
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6. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

7. Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza

8. Emilia Jones, CODA

9. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers

10. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story

Stewart’s a sure bet and Colman/Kidman/Gaga strike me as solid too, albeit perhaps on a second tier. That fifth slot, though, is a toughie. Hudson has barely had a presence this awards season but early releases (like Respect) have a tendency to surface at SAG - a pattern that perhaps helps the likes of Chastain and Jones, too. Haim and Zegler could ride their films’ momentum to nominations and Cruz scored a trio of SAG noms to go along with all three career Oscar bids. My gut says Hudson might just be this year’s “what the?” SAG nominee but it’s such a close call.

Best Male Actor in a Leading Role

1. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog

2. Will Smith, King Richard

3. Andrew Garfield, tick, tick…BOOM!

4. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth

5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up
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6. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano

7. Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos

8. Nicolas Cage, Pig

9. Joaquin Phoenix, C’mon C’mon

10. Mahershala Ali, Swan Song

Again, I feel most of the suspense here lies in the fifth slot, with Cumberbatch & Smith safe in their spots and Garfield & Washington in reasonably comfortable positions right behind them. Dinklage has surfaced in this category before (for The Station Agent) and I can oddly fathom Bardem making the cut, even if he’s rarely cited as an MVP of Being the Ricardos. But my gut says it’s DiCaprio who ekes it out. He rarely misses at SAG when in awards contention, even making the cut for J. Edgar, and his notices for Don’t Look Up have been generally strong, even from critics of the picture itself.

Best Female Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog

2. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story

3. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard

4. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast

5. Rita Moreno, West Side Story
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6. Judi Dench, Belfast

7. Marlee Matlin, CODA

8. Ruth Negga, Passing

9. Ann Dowd, Mass

10. Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up

Dunst, DeBose and Ellis look solid for nominations and odds are Balfe makes it too, even if she hasn’t had the formidable run many expected earlier in the season. Moreno is the quintessential SAG Best Supporting Actress nominee, a legendary veteran along the lines of Gwen Verdon (Marvin’s Room), Cloris Leachman (Spanglish) and Ruby Dee (American Gangster) who’s within striking distance of an Oscar nom but hardly a sure thing. I suspect she makes it but it’s just as easy to fathom Dench or Matlin making the cut if SAG falls especially hard for one of their pictures - and if Mass can somehow score Best Ensemble honors, Dowd may be along for the ride as a solo nominee. In a perfect world, both Negga and Tessa Thompson would be nominees everywhere for Passing but I’m not getting my hopes up.

Best Male Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog

2. Troy Kotsur, CODA

3. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast

4. Jamie Dornan, Belfast

5. J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos
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6. Jared Leto, House of Gucci

7. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza

8. Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar

9. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog

10. Jon Bernthal, King Richard

Not to sound like a broken record but…watch that fifth slot lol. Smit-McPhee, Kotsur, Hinds and Dornan should all be in good shape both here and on Oscar noms morning, barring Belfast losing momentum as the season progresses (which is plausible). My sense is Simmons takes the fifth slot, both here and at the Oscars, as a sort of “welcome back!” nod. It could be Leto but if the Globes wouldn’t embrace his divisive House of Gucci turn, I’m a little skeptical SAG and/or AMPAS will bite. Cooper’s been mostly absent from the precursors, The Tender Bar looks poised to arrive without much fanfare and Plemons (who is fantastic) has been completely overshadowed by his co-star. Bet on Simmons but prepare for the possibility of Leto.