2024 SAG Awards Nomination Predictions
Rankings are from most to least likely to be nominated:
Best Motion Picture Ensemble
Conclave
Wicked
Emilia Pérez
Sing Sing
Saturday Night
—The Brutalist
Anora
A Complete Unknown
Nickel Boys
His Three Daughters
Conclave, Emilia Pérez and Wicked ought to be safe - a snub for any of them, all undoubtedly widely seen by voters and sporting formidable casts, would be shocking. While Sing Sing’s momentum has dwindled somewhat, it’s an ensemble piece about the power of performance and should, you would think, resonate among actors. It’s that fifth slot that’s tough to project. Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown and Nickel Boys have no shortage of awards season buzz but I suspect it may be Saturday Night that makes the cut. It recalls the likes of Bobby and The Butler, pictures with sprawling ensembles that flatlined as serious Oscar contenders but nonetheless surfaced here.
Best Female Actor in a Leading Role
Demi Moore, The Substance
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
Mikey Madison, Anora
Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez
Kate Winslet, Lee
—Nicole Kidman, Babygirl
Angelina Jolie, Maria
Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths
Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here
Amy Adams, Nightbitch
Torres may have just scored the Drama Actress Golden Globe - a huge development, considering only two recipients of that prize have not gone on to Oscar nominations (and one of them, Kate Winslet in 2008, was instead nominated and won for another film) - but she’ll nonetheless be a longshot here, given SAG’s notorious aversion to turns from foreign language films. Her mother, the legendary Fernanda Montenegro, was not a SAG nominee for Central Station in 1998, nor was Isabelle Huppert, another recent Drama Actress Globe winner.
Erivo, Gascón, Madison and Moore ring as reasonably safe, given the robust buzz for their turns and films. My hunch is that fifth slot goes to one of the past Oscar winners - and it might just be Winslet, given the aggressive campaign she’s running, plus SAG’s penchant for recognizing early releases (e.g. Jennifer Hudson in Respect and Judi Dench in Victoria & Abdul). Kidman and Jolie are right up there, though, and don’t forget Adams managed to make the SAG cut for Hillbilly Elegy. Jean-Baptiste has seen a gangbusters run with the critics’ awards but SAG historically isn’t keen on Mike Leigh pictures. She wasn’t a SAG nominee for Secrets & Lies, nor was Sally Hawkins for Happy-Go-Lucky.
Best Male Actor in a Leading Role
Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love
—Hugh Grant, Heretic
Daniel Craig, Queer
Sebastian Stan, A Different Man
Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain
Glen Powell, Hit Man
This, too, rings of a lineup with a somewhat safe quartet and then a jump ball for that final spot. There’s a case to be made for any of the gents above but I’m going with a curveball. Bob Marley: One Love may have been released nearly an entire year ago but it was a commercial success and, despite lukewarm reviews for the film itself, scored positive notices for its leading man. Ben-Adir made the BAFTA longlist for Leading Actor and SAG has a history of remembering performances forgotten by other precursors. Thus, it shouldn’t be a jaw-dropper if he surfaces here.
Best Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
Ariana Grande, Wicked
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
Margaret Qualley, The Substance
Jamie Lee Curtis, The Last Showgirl
—Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson
Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez
Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys
Joan Chen, Didi
Grande, Rossellini and Saldaña are highly likely for recognition here and everywhere else moving forward. Qualley should be in decent shape too, at least at SAG - the AMPAS aversion to horror does make me nervous for her/her film’s chances come Oscar noms morning. So, yet again, the real suspense may be for the fifth slot. Emilia Pérez has plenty of momentum but I hesitate to predict Gomez when SAG has ignored her for every season of Only Murders in the Building (though that could change this year). I’m also wary of predicting Deadwyler when The Piano Lesson has so struggled to stay relevant in the awards season. I think Jones is a nominee at BAFTA and the Oscars but I’m less confident here. Ultimately, I’m going with another dark horse who also happened to make the BAFTA longlist.
Curtis has worked with just about everyone in the industry and it was SAG that made her a serious contender for Everything Everywhere All at Once. It’s possible not enough voters have seen The Last Showgirl and that could doom her (again, early releases tend to fare better than late ones) - but in a crowded and uncertain field, high name rec and goodwill could be enough to eek out a nomination (though I’m not sure it’ll translate at the Oscars). Beyond the names above, Monica Barbaro, Elle Fanning, Carol Kane, Natasha Lyonne and Adriana Paz could also show up.
Best Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Denzel Washington, Gladiator II
Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
Stanley Tucci, Conclave
—Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing
Yura Borisov, Anora
Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
Jonathan Bailey, Wicked
Mark Eydelshteyn, Anora
With Culkin seemingly steamrolling to victory, this isn’t the most exciting of the acting fields but in terms of filling out the category, there remains suspense. He, Washington and Pearce should be in good shape here, though I wonder if the sleepy reception for Gladiator II could trip Washington up on Oscar noms morning. I suspect Norton is a nominee would note, for what it’s worth, that SAG ignored him for both Primal Fear and American History X. In a contest between a beloved character actor who’s worked with everyone under the sun (Tucci) and two relative newcomers (Borisov and Maclin), I’m inclined to go with the former, at least here.