2019 Golden Globe/SAG Nomination Predictions

It’s the most wonderful time of the year!

Yes, I sure do love the Golden Globes and SAG Awards - what human being, after all, wouldn’t be enamored with precursors that once gave Jodie Foster, Shirley MacLaine and Sigourney Weaver a Best Actress three-way tie or awards that bestowed recognition upon not only Nathan Lane but Hank Azaria too for The Birdcage?

Especially in a season this chaotic, expect no shortage of jaw-droppers, both on nominations morning and awards night.

At the Globes, beyond the expected showering of nominations on The Irishman and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, prepare for heaps of affection toward the likes of Jojo Rabbit and Joker too - even if they don’t make as heavy a splash later on with the Oscars. The Hollywood Foreign Press Association is liable to go gaga for the starry Little Women and generally goes bananas for a movie musical…even if it isn’t a good one (hello, Best Picture nominees The Phantom of the Opera and The Producers). Hence, even if Cats is a stinker, it could still make a nice showing here.

Don’t be surprised if the SAG nominations look considerably different than what the Globes serve up.

I’m keeping an especially close eye on Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress, where it’s so easy to see veterans like Alan Alda, John Lithgow and Maggie Smith emerge at SAG after Globe snubs.

Speaking of Dame Maggie, the SAG Awards used to eat up Downton Abbey in a huge way when it competed for television prizes, including three victories in the top Best Drama Ensemble category. If this at all translates to the film awards, it is completely plausible the film earns a Film Ensemble nom here. Keep an eye out too for real stunners like Elisabeth Moss (Her Smell) and Mary Kay Place (Diane), who could perhaps flabbergast awards season followers on a Sarah Silverman (I Smile Back)-level.

Oh, and Helen Mirren, GG/SAG/BAFTA nominee for Hitchcock, could easily land at either or both of these for The Good Liar.

Happy predicting! :)

Golden Globes:

Best Motion Picture - Drama

1. The Irishman

2. Marriage Story

3. 1917

4. Joker

5. Little Women
   —

6. Bombshell

7. The Two Popes

8. Richard Jewell

9. Ford v Ferrari

10. Avengers: Endgame

Best Motion Picture - Musical/Comedy

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

2. Jojo Rabbit

3. Rocketman

4. Hustlers

5. Cats
   —

6. Knives Out

7. The Peanut Butter Falcon

8. Dolemite Is My Name

9. Booksmart

10. Yesterday

Best Director

1. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman

2. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

3. Sam Mendes, 1917

4. Greta Gerwig, Little Women

5. Todd Phillips, Joker
   —

6. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit

7. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story

8. Bong Joon-ho, Parasite

9. Clint Eastwood, Richard Jewell

10. Tom Hooper, Cats

Best Screenplay

1. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

2. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story

3. Steven Zaillian, The Irishman

4. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit

5. Greta Gerwig, Little Women
   —

6. Anthony McCarten, The Two Popes

7. Bong Joon-ho and Jin Won Han, Parasite

8. Rian Johnson, Knives Out

9. Lulu Wang, The Farewell

10. Charles Randolph, Bombshell

Best Actress - Drama

1. Renee Zellweger, Judy

2. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story

3. Charlize Theron, Bombshell

4. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women

5. Helen Mirren, The Good Liar
   —

6. Lupita Nyong’o, Us

7. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet

8. Felicity Jones, The Aeronauts

9. Alfre Woodard, Clemency

10. Elisabeth Moss, Her Smell

Best Actor - Drama

1. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker

2. Adam Driver, Marriage Story

3. Robert De Niro, The Irishman

4. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes

5. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
   —

6. Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems

7. Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari

8. George MacKay, 1917

9. Paul Walter Hauser, Richard Jewell

10. Mark Ruffalo, Dark Waters

Best Actress - Musical/Comedy

1. Awkwafina, The Farewell

2. Constance Wu, Hustlers

3. Emma Thompson, Late Night

4. Ana de Armas, Knives Out

5. Francesca Hayward, Cats
   —

6. Cate Blanchett, Where’d You Go, Bernadette?

7. Dakota Johnson, The Peanut Butter Falcon

8. Charlize Theron, Long Shot

9. Beanie Feldstein, Booksmart

10. Angelina Jolie, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil

Best Actor - Musical/Comedy

1. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

2. Taron Egerton, Rocketman

3. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name

4. Daniel Craig, Knives Out

5. Shia LaBeouf, The Peanut Butter Falcon
   —

6. Roman Griffin Davis, Jojo Rabbit

7. Himesh Patel, Yesterday

8. Will Smith, Aladdin

9. Bryan Cranston, The Upside

10. Zachary Levi, Shazam!

Best Supporting Actress

1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story

2. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers

3. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit

4. Margot Robbie, Bombshell

5. Florence Pugh, Little Women
   —

6. Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey

7. Penelope Cruz, Pain and Glory

8. Zhao Shuzhen, The Farewell

9. Nicole Kidman, Bombshell

10. Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell

Best Supporting Actor

1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

2. Al Pacino, The Irishman

3. Joe Pesci, The Irishman

4. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

5. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
   —

6. Timothee Chalamet, Little Women

7. Shia LaBeouf, Honey Boy

8. Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse

9. Jamie Bell, Rocketman

10. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit

Best Animated Feature

1. Toy Story 4

2. Frozen II

3. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World

4. Missing Link

5. Abominable
   —

6. The Addams Family

7. Spies in Disguise

8. Weathering with You

9. Okko’s Inn

10. I Lost My Body

Best Foreign Language Film

1. Parasite

2. The Farewell

3. Pain and Glory

4. Portrait of a Lady on Fire

5. Les Miserables
   —

6. The Boy Who Harnessed the Wind

7. Monos

8. Atlantics

9. The Painted Bird

10. Dear Ex

Best Original Score

1. Thomas Newman, 1917

2. Alexandre Desplat, Little Women

3. Michael Giacchino, Jojo Rabbit

4. Hildur Guðnadóttir, Joker

5. Marco Beltrami and Buck Sanders, Ford v Ferrari
   —

6. Randy Newman, Marriage Story

7. Steven Price, The Aeronauts

8. Nate Heller, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

9. Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, Waves

10. Alan Silvestri, Avengers: Endgame

Best Original Song

1. “I’m Gonna Love Me Again,” Rocketman

2. “Into the Unknown,” Frozen II

3. “Beautiful Ghosts,” Cats

4. “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away,” Toy Story 4

5. “Speechless,” Aladdin
   —

6. “Stand Up,” Harriet

7. “I’m Standing with You,” Breakthrough

8. “Don’t Call Me (Angel),” Charlie’s Angels

9. “One Little Soldier,” Bombshell

10. “Spirit,” The Lion King

Screen Actors Guild Awards:

Best Motion Picture Ensemble

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

2. The Irishman

3. Marriage Story

4. Bombshell

5. Hustlers
   —

6. Little Women

7. Knives Out

8. Downton Abbey

9. Avengers: Endgame

10. Jojo Rabbit

Best Female Actor in a Leading Role

1. Renee Zellweger, Judy

2. Charlize Theron, Bombshell

3. Awkwafina, The Farewell

4. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story

5. Alfre Woodard, Clemency
   —

6. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women

7. Helen Mirren, The Good Liar

8. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet

9. Lupita Nyong’o, Us

10. Mary Kay Place, Diane

Best Male Actor in a Leading Role

1. Adam Driver, Marriage Story

2. Robert De Niro, The Irishman

3. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker

4. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory

5. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes
   —

6. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name

7. Taron Egerton, Rocketman

8. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

9. Mark Ruffalo, Dark Waters

10. Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari

Best Female Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story

2. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers

3. Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey

4. Penelope Cruz, Pain and Glory

5. Nicole Kidman, Bombshell
   —

6. Annette Bening, The Report

7. Margot Robbie, Bombshell

8. Florence Pugh, Little Women

9. Zhao Shuzhen, The Farewell

10. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit

Best Male Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

2. Al Pacino, The Irishman

3. Joe Pesci, The Irishman

4. Alan Alda, Marriage Story

5. John Lithgow, Bombshell
   —

6. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

7. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes

8. Sterling K. Brown, Waves

9. Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse

10. Song Kang-ho, Parasite

2018 SAG Award Winners

Congrats to this year’s splendid SAG Award honorees!

Best Ensemble:
Black Panther

Best Leading Actor:
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

Best Leading Actress:
Glenn Close, The Wife

Best Supporting Actor:
Mahershala Ali, Green Book

Best Supporting Actress:
Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place

2018 SAG Awards Nomination Predictions

The Screen Actors Guild Awards are never a cinch to predict, at least in terms of nominations, which is why I so adore them. Almost always, they produce at least one nominee (Hank Azaria in The Birdcage, anyone?) who hasn’t been on the radar of any other awards season precursor.

More likely than not, there will be at least one eyebrow-raising contender on SAG nominations morning. Could it be Julia Roberts in Ben Is Back? How about Russell Hornsby in The Hate U Give or Sissy Spacek in The Old Man and the Gun? While not among my top 10s, I’m also keeping an eye on the likes of Jonathan Pryce in The Wife and Rachel McAdams in Disobedience.

So, here's how I’m thinking the nominations might just pan out, from most to least likely to show up. Feel free, of course, to comment with your own predictions too!

Best Ensemble:

1. The Favourite

2. If Beale Street Could Talk

3. Crazy Rich Asians

4. A Star Is Born

5. Vice
   —

6. BlacKkKlansman

7. Black Panther

8. Widows

9. Green Book

10. Roma

Best Leading Actor:

1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born

2. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

3. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

4. Christian Bale, Vice

5. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
   —

6. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased

7. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate

8. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman

9. Robert Redford, The Old Man and the Gun

10. Ryan Gosling, First Man

Best Leading Actress:

1. Glenn Close, The Wife

2. Olivia Colman, The Favourite

3. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

4. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born

5. Viola Davis, Widows
   —

6. Toni Collette, Hereditary

7. Regina Hall, Support the Girls

8. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns

9. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma

10. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer

Best Supporting Actor:

1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book

2. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

3. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman

4. Sam Rockwell, Vice

5. Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born
   —

6. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy

7. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther

8. Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give

9. Brian Tyree Henry, If Beale Street Could Talk

10. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows

Best Supporting Actress:

1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

2. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

3. Emma Stone, The Favourite

4. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians

5. Amy Adams, Vice
   —

6. Claire Foy, First Man

7. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased

8. Elizabeth Debicki, Widows

9. Thomasin McKenzie, Leave No Trace

10. Sissy Spacek, The Old Man and the Gun

2017 SAG Awards Predictions

On the heels of Oscar nominations morning - and with about a month and a half to go before that grand ceremony - here's my final hunch on how next weekend's SAG Awards will go down...

Best Ensemble

1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2. Get Out
3. Lady Bird
4. Mudbound
5. The Big Sick

It would, despite the strengths of the pictures and performances, be flabbergasting to see Mudbound or especially The Big Sick emerge triumphant here. Instead, this should be a three-way barn burner. Lady Bird, no doubt, has heaps of support in the industry, though I hesitate to predict it when I'm not going with Ronan or Metcalf for the win in their respective categories. Get Out, on the other hand, can totally win without a victory for leading man Kaluuya. I give Three Billboards the edge, as I do have McDormand down for the win, plus the surprise Harrelson nomination seems indicative of high support for the picture among the acting wing.

Best Male Actor

1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
2. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
3. Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
4. James Franco, The Disaster Artist
5. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.

Here's the closest thing to a shoo-in on the film side of the SAG Awards. If Oldman could triumph at the Golden Globes, despite publicly lambasting that body, there's scant reason to believe he won't handily prevail here (and later at BAFTA, of course). It's tough to even forecast a runner-up - prior to the sexual abuse allegations, it would have been Globe winner Franco but now Chalamet and Kaluuya probably earn more votes, with Washington still clearly dead last.

Best Female Actor

1. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
3. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
4. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
5. Judi Dench, Victoria & Abdul

Much as I adored Dame Judi, I would concede she hasn't a shot at victory (though keep an eye on her in advance of Oscar nominations morning). Hawkins, given the lack of The Shape of Water in Ensemble, is also not likely and if Robbie couldn't triumph at the Globes, she's probably not prevailing here either. This will be a jump ball between the two Globe winners and it's hardly easy to argue for one over the other. One stat perhaps in Ronan's favor is no performer to date has earned two Best Female Actor SAG Awards - McDormand would mark the very first. I suspect, however, given how universally loved she is in the industry and among her peers (plus how well-liked Three Billboards evidently is within the Guild), McDormand will indeed achieve this feat.

Best Supporting Male Actor

1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
4. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
5. Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes

The Carell nomination is a baffling one, given his sitcom-level half of Battle of the Sexes is vastly inferior to Emma Stone's more compelling scenes. He's not a factor here, nor is Jenkins (whose film failed to land in Ensemble) or Harrelson (who just hasn't been much of an awards season player). If not for Harrelson's presence, I suspect I'd be siding with Globe winner Rockwell...but could it be that Harrelson siphons off just enough Three Billboards fans from his co-star to hand Dafoe victory? I suspect it just might happen, though, given The Florida Project's lack of Ensemble nod, I'm hardly confident.

Best Supporting Female Actor

1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya
2. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
3. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick
4. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
5. Hong Chau, Downsizing

Chau doesn't have a prayer and, despite their films earning Ensemble nominations, nor do Blige or Hunter. It's a coin flip between Janney and Metcalf, as it has been all awards season. Both are beloved "actor's actors," stars of the big and small screens and stage. Janney's SAG history is a mixed bag - on one hand, she earned two Drama Actress prizes for The West Wing, which is an impressive feat. On the flip side, despite four Emmy nominations (including two wins for the role), she's never earned a nod for her current work on Mom. By the time the SAG Awards came to fruition, Roseanne, then on its seventh season, was fading from the awards circuit, so there's no Metcalf track record here to speak of. I suspect, given the immense plethora of actors she's worked alongside over the years, Janney has an ever-so-slight edge but it could totally be Metcalf, especially if voters who aren't inclined to award Lady Bird in Ensemble or Lead Actress wish to at least throw it a bone somewhere.

2017 SAG Awards Nominations

Congratulations to this year's SAG Award nominees!

Best Ensemble

The Big Sick
Get Out
Lady Bird
Mudbound
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Male Actor

Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
James Franco, The Disaster Artist
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.

Best Female Actor

Judi Dench, Victoria & Abdul
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird

Best Supporting Male Actor

Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboard Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Supporting Female Actor

Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Hong Chau, Downsizing
Holly Hunter, The Big Sick
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird

Best Stunt Ensemble

Baby Driver
Dunkirk
Logan
War for the Planet of the Apes
Wonder Woman