2016 Oscar Nomination Predictions (September)

With my Best Original Song project behind me, I am (at last!) ready to squarely focus on this year's Oscar horse race. (That is, in addition to my usual movie reviews and one small, spooky October project that I'll reveal more info on in the coming days.)

The 2016 Oscar race has already, to put it mildly, proven an exciting and fascinating one. It's no surprise the likes of La La Land and Manchester by the Sea were whole-heartedly embraced on the festival scene but I for one did not expect such raves for Jackie or even Nocturnal Animals. A number of potential Oscar contenders have already garnered domestic releases - among them, Sully, Hell or High Water, The Jungle Book and Florence Foster Jenkins - and we'll see if they can hang on amidst the onslaught of Oscar-bait about to flood the big screens over the coming months.

There remain many unanswered questions.

Will, for instance, Martin Scorsese's Silence actually see the light of day? (At this point, I am going to presume Paramount gets the film out on time and predict it in a number of categories...but I suspect it's a real coin flip.)

Then, there's Fences - will it prove a threat in not only Lead Actor and Lead Actress but also Picture and Director, or could it go the way of middling stage-to-screen adaptations like The History Boys and Proof? Likewise, is Billy Lynn another Ang Lee winner or have we perhaps been overestimating the picture all along? These are two potential-juggernauts but, unlike La La Land and Manchester by the Sea, we really haven't a clue yet how strong the pictures are. Same goes for Rules Don't Apply, Passengers and Allied.

Of course, there's also The Birth of a Nation. Has all of the controversy surrounding Nate Parker's college rape trial left the picture dead in the water, or can Parker and Fox Searchlight still make a success out of it? For now, I remain skeptical but anything is possible in what no doubt will be a true roller coaster ride of an awards season.

With that said, here are my first full Oscar predictions of the 2016 season, ranked from most to least likely to garner a nomination. I'll be updating them once a month from here on out. Of course feel free to comment and offer up your own thoughts and predictions!

Best Picture

1. La La Land
2. Manchester by the Sea
3. Fences
4. Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
5. Jackie
6. Loving
7. Silence
8. Arrival
9. Hidden Figures
   ---
10. Allied
11. Lion
12. Nocturnal Animals
13. Rules Don't Apply
14. The Birth of a Nation
15. Moonlight

Best Director

1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land
2. Ang Lee, Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
3. Denzel Washington, Fences
4. Martin Scorsese, Silence
5. Denis Villanueve, Arrival
   ---
6. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
7. Jeff Nichols, Loving
8. Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals
9. Warren Beatty, Rules Don't Apply
10. Pablo Larrain, Jackie

Best Lead Actor

1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
2. Denzel Washington, Fences
3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land
4. Joel Edgerton, Loving
5. Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
   ---
6. Tom Hanks, Sully
7. Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals
8. Michael Keaton, The Founder
9. Andrew Garfield, Silence (Hacksaw Ridge if Silence not released)
10. Dev Patel, Lion

Best Lead Actress

1. Emma Stone, La La Land
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie
3. Viola Davis, Fences
4. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
5. Ruth Negga, Loving
   ---
6. Amy Adams, Arrival
7. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures
8. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women
9. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane
10. Isabelle Huppert, Elle

Best Supporting Actor

1. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
2. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
3. Warren Beatty, Rules Don't Apply
4. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
5. Liam Neeson, Silence
   ---
6. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
7. Peter Sarsgaard, Jackie
8. Steve Martin, Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
9. Stephen Henderson, Fences
10. Mykelti Williamson, Fences

Best Supporting Actress

1. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight
3. Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
4. Nicole Kidman, Lion
5. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
   ---
6. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women
7. Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls
8. Annette Bening, Rules Don't Apply
9. Elle Fanning, 20th Century Women
10. Laura Linney, Nocturnal Animals

Best Original Screenplay

1. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
2. Jeff Nichols, Loving
3. Damien Chazelle, La La Land
4. Noah Oppenheim, Jackie
5. Jared Bush, Byron Howard, Phil Johnston, Jennifer Lee, Rich Moore, Jim Reardon and Josie Trinidad, Zootopia
   ---
6. Ron Clements and John Musker, Moana
7. Barry Jenkins and Tarell McCraney, Moonlight
8. Warren Beatty, Rules Don't Apply
9. Steven Knight, Allied
10. Asghar Farhadi, The Salesman

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. August Wilson, Fences
2. Jean-Christophe Castelli, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
3. Jay Cocks, Silence
4. Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals
5. Allison Schroeder, Hidden Figures
   ---
6. Luke Davies, Lion
7. Eric Heisserer, Arrival
8. Whit Stillman, Love & Friendship
9. David Birke, Elle
10. Justin Marks, The Jungle Book

Best Animated Feature

1. Zootopia
2. Moana
3. Sing
4. The Red Turtle
5. Finding Dory
   ---
6. Kubo and the Two Strings
7. Sausage Party
8. The Secret Life of Pets
9. April and the Extraordinary World
10. Miss Hokusai

Best Cinematography

1. Linus Sandgren, La La Land
2. John Toll, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
3. Bradford Young, Arrival
4. Rodrigo Prieto, Silence
5. Seamus McGarvey, Nocturnal Animals
   ---
6. Bill Pope, The Jungle Book
7. Charlotte Bruus Christiansen, Fences
8. Elliot Davis, The Birth of a Nation
9. Greig Fraser, Lion
10. Don Burgess, Allied

Best Costume Design

1. Mary Zophres, La La Land
2. Joanna Johnston, Allied
3. Albert Wolsky, Rules Don't Apply
4. Eimer Ni Mhaoldomhnaigh, Love & Friendship
5. Consolata Boyle, Florence Foster Jenkins
   ---
6. Madeline Fontaine, Jackie
7. Sandy Powell, Silence
8. Sharen Davis, Fences
9. Francine Jamison-Tanchuck, The Birth of a Nation
10. Colleen Atwood, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Best Film Editing

1. Tom Cross, La La Land
2. Thelma Schoonmaker, Silence
3. Tim Squyre, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
4. Joe Walker, Arrival
5. Hughes Winborne, Fences
   ---
6. Joan Sobel, Nocturnal Animals
7. Jennifer Lame, Manchester by the Sea
8. Steven Rosenblum, The Birth of a Nation
9. Joi McMillon and Nat Sanders, Moonlight
10. Jeremiah O’Driscoll, Allied

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

1. Florence Foster Jenkins
2. Rules Don't Apply
3. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
   ---
4. Love & Friendship
5. Hidden Figures
6. La La Land
7. Star Trek: Beyond
8. Jackie
9. Hail, Caesar!
10. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Best Original Score

1. Opetaia Foa’i, Mark Mancina and Lin-Manuel Miranda, Moana
2. Michael Giacchino, Zootopia
3. Johann Johansson, Arrival
4. Jeff and Mychael Danna, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
5. Justin Hurwitz, La La Land
   ---
6. Howard Shore, Silence
7. Mica Levi, Jackie
8. Thomas Newman, Finding Dory
9. Alexandre Desplat, Florence Foster Jenkins
10. Henry Jackman, The Birth of a Nation

Best Original Song

1. "City of Stars," La La Land
2. "We Know the Way," Moana
3. "Audition," La La Land
4. "How Far I'll Go," Moana
5. "Go Now," Sing Street
   ---
6. "Victory," Hidden Figures
7. "The Great Beyond, Sausage Party
8. "Can't Stop the Feeling," Trolls
9. "Try Everything," Zootopia
10. "Drive It Like You Stole It," Sing Street

Best Production Design

1. David Wasco, La La Land
2. Jeannine Oppewall, Rules Don't Apply
3. Dante Ferretti, Silence
4. Gary Freeman, Allied
5. David Gropman, Fences
   ---
6. Stuart Craig, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
7. Anna Rackard, Love & Friendship
8. Geoffrey Kirkland, The Birth of a Nation
9. Jean Rabasse, Jackie
10. Mark Friedberg, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

Best Sound Editing

1. La La Land
2. Arrival
3. Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
4. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
5. Silence
   ---
6. Moana
7. Allied
8. Passengers
9. Deepwater Horizon
10. Captain America: Civil War

Best Sound Mixing

1. La La Land
2. Arrival
3. Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
4. Silence
5. Moana
   ---
6. Allied
7. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
8. Passengers
9. Zootopia
10. Deepwater Horizon

Best Visual Effects

1. Arrival
2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
3. Passengers
4. Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
5. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
   ---
6. The Jungle Book
7. Captain America: Civil War
8. A Monster Calls
9. Star Trek: Beyond
10. Deadpool

Best Documentary Feature

1. The 13th
2. Gleason
3. The Seasons in Quincy: Four Portraits of John Berger
4. Equal Means Equal
5. Newtown
   ---
6. Three Days of Terror: The Charlie Hebdo Attacks
7. Fire at Sea
8. Miss Sharon Jones
9. By Sidney Lumet
10. Lo and Behold, Reveries of the Connected World

Best Foreign Language Film

1. The Salesman (Iran)
2. Death in Sarajevo (Bosnia)
3. Elle (France)
4. Sand Storm (Israel)
5. Ma'Rosa (Phillippines)
   ---
6. United States of Love (Poland)
7. Julieta (Spain)
8. From Afar (Venezuela)
9. The Happiest Day in the Life of Olli Mäki (Finland)
10. Barakah Meets Barakah (Saudi Arabia)