2017 Oscar Nomination Predictions (Summer Edition)

Too early to start talking the 2017 Oscars? As if!

Heaps, no doubt, will change over the months to come, as a host of pictures, both big and small, flood theaters with awards season aspirations. There will be the Allieds and the Rules Don't Applys, the supposed surefire Oscar contenders that instead spectacularly go up in flames. There will also be the sleepers, like Hell or High Water and Hidden Figures, with surprise success in store, perhaps at the 11 o'clock hour. And there will be the heartbreakers, like Jackie and 20th Century Women, that don't quite triumph on Oscar nominations morning like they should.

This far out, nomination predictions, much as I have a blast putting them together, are very much a shot in the dark. Yes, a pocketful of contenders have already seen the light of day in theaters and sure, another handful have screened here and there. The vast majority, however, remain complete question marks.

The likes of Steven Spielberg's The Papers, Joe Wright's Darkest Hour and Paul Thomas Anderson's Phantom Thread, on paper at least, sound like knockouts, poised to feast on recognition come awards season. Of course, we won't know for some time if any of those three pictures will live up to such expectations.

Woody Allen, Darren Aronofsky, Kathryn Bigelow and Christopher Nolan, among other juggernaut filmmakers, all have films this year, while Oscar favorites including Daniel Day-Lewis, Judi Dench, Frances McDormand, Michael Shannon (yes, I totally consider him an Oscar fave after pulling not one but two nominations out of a hat) and, of course, Meryl Streep are gearing up to potentially barnstorm this awards season.

There are countless questions. Will Murder on the Orient Express flop or flourish? Can Get Out emerge a serious contender, despite Oscar aversion to horror and an early release date? Will Tom Hanks at last return to the Oscars after a series of snubs? What about Jake Gyllenhaal? And just what on earth is Mother! really all about?

Those inquiries and many more shall soon be answered. For now, let's take a rough stab at this. Below you will find my first Oscar nomination predictions of the year, ranked from most to least likely to be recognized. A handful of categories - Foreign Film, Documentary Feature, Original Song and the shorts - I don't feel confident at all forecasting this far out, so I'll hold off on those until the fall.

Of course, I wholeheartedly encourage you to comment with your own thoughts and predictions as well. This, no doubt, per usual, will be one hell of an awards season.

Here's to the 2017 Oscars!

Best Picture

1. Dunkirk
2. The Papers
3. Darkest Hour
4. Call Me By Your Name
5. Phantom Thread
6. The Current War
7. Detroit
8. Marshall
9. Breathe
   ---
10. Blade Runner 2049
11. Mother!
12. Wonder Wheel
13. The Big Sick
14. Victoria & Abdul
15. Get Out

Best Director

1. Steven Spielberg, The Papers
2. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour
3. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
4. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
5. Darren Aronofsky, Mother!
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6. Kathryn Bigelow, Detroit
7. Denis Villenueve, Blade Runner 2049
8. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me By Your Name
9. Alfonso Gomez-Rejon, The Current War
10. Andy Serkis, Breathe

Best Lead Actor

1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
3. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Current War
4. Andrew Garfield, Breathe
5. Chadwick Boseman, Marshall
   ---
6. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger
7. Tom Hanks, The Papers
8. Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying
9. Denzel Washington, Roman Israel, Esq.
10. Donald Sutherland, The Leisure Seeker

Best Lead Actress

1. Meryl Streep, The Papers
2. Judi Dench, Victoria & Abdul
3. Jennifer Lawrence, Mother!
4. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel
5. Jessica Chastain, Molly's Game
   ---
6. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri
7. Claire Foy, Breathe
8. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes
9. Annette Bening, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool
10. Glenn Close, The Wife

Best Supporting Actor

1. Michael Shannon, The Current War
2. Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour
3. Sterling K. Brown, Marshall
4. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me By Your Name
5. Steve Carell, Last Flag Flying
   ---
6. Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name
7. Colin Farrell, Roman Israel, Esq.
8. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound
9. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
10. Ray Romano, The Big Sick

Best Supporting Actress

1. Melissa Leo, Novitiate
2. Kristin Scott-Thomas, Darkest Hour
3. Michelle Pfeiffer, Mother!
4. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick
5. Carrie Coon, The Papers
   ---
6. Katherine Waterston, The Current War
7. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
8. Kirsten Dunst, The Beguiled
9. Julianne Moore, Wonderstruck
10. Nicole Kidman, The Killing of a Sacred Deer

Best Original Screenplay

1. Anthony McCarten, Darkest Hour
2. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
3. Michael Mitnick, The Current War
4. Woody Allen, Wonder Wheel
5. Joel and Ethan Coen, Suburbicon
   ---
6. Emily V. Gordon and Kumail Nanjiani, The Big Sick
7. Alexander Payne and Jim Taylor, Downsizing
8. Efthymis Filippou and Yorgos Lanthimos, The Killing of a Sacred Deer
9. Jordan Peele, Get Out
10. Michael and Jacob Koskoff, Marshall

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Liz Hannah and Josh Singer, The Papers
2. Walter Fasano, Luca Guardagnino and James Ivory, Call Me By Your Name
3. Richard Linklater and Darryl Ponicsan, Last Flag Flying
4. Lee Hall, Victoria & Abdul
5. Dee Rees and Virgil Williams, Mudbound
   ---
6. Sofia Coppola, The Beguiled
7. Aaron Sorkin, Molly's Game
8. Andrew Haigh, Lean on Pete
9. Ian McEwan, On Chesil Beach
10. Hampton Fancher and Michael Green, Blade Runner 2049

Best Animated Feature

1. Coco
2. The Breadwinner
3. Cars 3
4. Ferdinand
5. Despicable Me 3
   ---
6. The Lego Batman Movie
7. The Star
8. The Lego Ninjago
9. Captain Underpants
10. My Entire High School Sinking into the Sea

Best Cinematography

1. Roger Deakins, Blade Runner 2049
2. Hoyte Van Hoytema, Dunkirk
3. Barry Ackroyd, Detroit
4. Bruno Delbonnel, Darkest Hour
5. Robert Richardson, Breathe
   ---
6. Matthew Libatique, Mother!
7. Janusz Kaminski, The Papers
8. Sayombhu Mukdeeprom, Call Me By Your Name
9. Edward Lachmann, Wonderstruck
10. Phillippe Le Sourd, The Beguiled

Best Costume Design

1. Mark Bridges, Phantom Thread
2. Consolata Boyle, Victoria & Abdul
3. Jacqueline Durran, Darkest Hour
4. Stacey Battat, The Beguiled
5. Ruth E. Carter, Marshall
   ---
6. Ellen Miojnick, The Greatest Showman
7. Jacqueline Durran, Beauty and the Beast
8. Alexandra Byrne, Murder on the Orient Express
9. Michael Wikinson, The Current War
10. Lindy Hemming, Wonder Woman

Best Film Editing

1. Lee Smith, Dunkirk
2. Michael Kahn, The Papers
3. William Goldenberg and Harry Yoon, Detroit
4. Joe Walker, Blade Runner 2049
5. Dylan Tichenor, Phantom Thread
   ---
6. Valerio Bonelli, Darkest Hour
7. David Trachenberg, The Current War
8. Jonathan Amos and Paul Machliss, Baby Driver
9. Bob Ducsay, Star Wars: The Last Jedi
10. Andrew Weisblum, Mother!

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

1. Darkest Hour
2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
3. Beauty and the Beast
   ---
4. The Greatest Showman
5. Murder on the Orient Express
6. The Current War
7. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
8. Wonderstruck
9. Logan
10. Mother!

Best Original Score

1. John Williams, The Papers
2. Hans Zimmer, Dunkirk
3. Dario Marianelli, Darkest Hour
4. Dustin O'Halloran, The Current War
5. Thomas Newman, Victoria & Abdul
   ---
6. Alexandre Desplat, The Shape of Water
7. Johann Johannsson, Blade Runner 2049
8. John Williams, Star Wars: The Last Jedi
9. Jonny Greenwood, Phantom Thread
10. Benj Pasek and Justin Paul, The Greatest Showman

Best Production Design

1. Sarah Greenwood, Darkest Hour
2. Dennis Gassner, Blade Runner 2049
3. Nathan Crowley, Dunkirk
4. Paul D. Austerberry, The Shape of Water
5. Mark Tildesley, Phantom Thread
   ---
6. Anne Ross, The Beguiled
7. Jan Roelfs, The Current War
8. Nathan Crowley, The Greatest Showman
9. Sarah Finley and Adam Squires, Victoria & Abdul
10. Philip Messina, Mother!

Best Sound Editing

1. Dunkirk
2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
3. Blade Runner 2049
4. Detroit
5. Baby Driver
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6. The Papers
7. The Current War
8. Spider-Man: Homecoming
9. Beauty and the Beast
10. Darkest Hour

Best Sound Mixing

1. Dunkirk
2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
3. Blade Runner 2049
4. Detroit
5. The Papers
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6. The Current War
7. Darkest Hour
8. Baby Driver
9. Phantom Thread
10. Coco

Best Visual Effects

1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
2. Blade Runner 2049
3. Dunkirk
4. Beauty and the Beast
5. The Shape of Water
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6. War for the Planet of the Apes
7. Wonder Woman
8. Spider-Man: Homecoming
9. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
10. Thor: Ragnarok