FINAL 2017 Oscar Winner Predictions

Welp, here we go!

It legit feels like years ago that I was predicting the likes of The Current War, mother! and Wonder Wheel for Oscar nominations. Now, here we are, with that trio long out of the picture and The Shape of Water and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri (and maybe, hopefully Get Out too) poised for battle on Oscar night.

There are a bunch of categories, at least on the technical end, that I'm having a tough time projecting. Will, for instance, one of Dunkirk or The Shape of Water steamroll through the tech fields or shall they split those fortunes, perhaps with Baby Driver and/or Blade Runner 2049 taking a prize or two? Original Screenplay is looking awfully close too, with cases to be made for Get Out and Three Billboards. Oh, and the shorts are never easy to predict. (The acting fields, I'm afraid, look like a snooze.)

A key question I have is which is more detrimental to winning Best Picture - the lack of SAG Best Ensemble nomination for The Shape or Water or no Best Director Oscar nomination for Three Billboards? Stats like these, and how rare it is for a film to triumph on Oscar night without those two nominations, is why we cannot count out something like Get Out, even as it unimpeachably heads into the big night an underdog.

With that said, here's what my gut is telling me...

Best Picture

1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2. The Shape of Water
3. Get Out
4. Dunkirk
5. Lady Bird
6. Call Me by Your Name
7. The Post
8. Darkest Hour
9. Phantom Thread

Best Director

1. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
2. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
3. Jordan Peele, Get Out
4. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
5. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread

Best Actor

1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
3. Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
4. Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
5. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.

Best Actress

1. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
3. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
4. Meryl Streep, The Post
5. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya

Best Supporting Actor

1. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2. Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
3. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
4. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
5. Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Supporting Actress

1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya
2. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
3. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
4. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
5. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

Best Original Screenplay

1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2. Get Out
3. Lady Bird
4. The Shape of Water
5. The Big Sick

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Call Me by Your Name
2. Mudbound
3. Molly's Game
4. The Disaster Artist
5. Logan

Best Animated Feature

1. Coco
2. The Breadwinner
3. Loving Vincent
4. The Boss Baby
5. Ferdinand

Best Original Song

1. “Remember Me,” Coco
2. “This Is Me,” The Greatest Showman
3. “Mighty River,” Mudbound
4. “Mystery of Love,” Call Me by Your Name
5. “Stand Up for Something,” Marshall

Best Documentary Feature

1. Last Men in Aleppo
2. Faces/Places
3. Strong Island
4. Abacus (Small Enough to Jail)
5. Icarus

Best Documentary Short

1. “Eden and Eddie”
2. "Heroin/e"
3. "Traffic Stop"
4. “Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405”
5. “Knife Skills”

Best Foreign Language Film

1. A Fantastic Woman
2. Loveless
3. On Body and Soul
4. The Square
5. The Insult

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Darkest Hour
2. Wonder
3. Victoria & Abdul

Best Film Editing

1. Dunkirk
2. Baby Driver
3. The Shape of Water
4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
5. I, Tonya

Best Visual Effects

1. Blade Runner 2049
2. War for the Planet of the Apes
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
4. Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 2
5. Kong: Skull Island

Best Original Score

1. The Shape of Water
2. Phantom Thread
3. Dunkirk
4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Best Production Design

1. The Shape of Water
2. Blade Runner 2049
3. Beauty and the Beast
4. Dunkirk
5. Darkest Hour

Best Cinematography

1. Dunkirk
2. Blade Runner 2049
3. The Shape of Water
4. Mudbound
5. Darkest Hour

Best Costume Design

1. Phantom Thread
2. Beauty and the Beast
3. The Shape of Water
4. Darkest Hour
5. Victoria & Abdul

Best Sound Editing

1. Dunkirk
2. Baby Driver
3. The Shape of Water
4. Blade Runner 2049
5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Best Sound Mixing

1. Dunkirk
2. The Shape of Water
3. Baby Driver
4. Blade Runner 2049
5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Best Live Action Short Film

1. "DeKalb Elementary"
2. "The Silent Child"
3. "The Eleven O'Clock"
4. "Watu Wote/All of Us"
5. "My Nephew Emmett"

Best Animated Short Film

1. "Lou"
2. "Garden Party"
3. "Dear Basketball"
4. "Negative Space"
5. "Revolting Rhymes"