2019 Oscar Nomination Predictions (September)

You may or may not have noticed - I am, after all, constantly on Twitter, more often than not preaching on some Best Supporting Actress race from half a century ago - but I haven’t done a whole lot on my blog this year. Much as I’d love to embark on another Oscar Flashback and/or pen my usual reviews, I’m afraid I simply haven’t had the time in recent months.

I am, however, trying my best to keep up with the Oscar race and that means (at last!) compiling my first set of predictions for the year. In the past, I’ve started off with a list of summer predictions, around July or August, but this time around it’ll have to be September - and I shall try to update these bad boys once a month, from here ‘til nominations morning.

One year ago, I was still predicting Steve McQueen (Widows), Robert Redford (The Old Man and the Gun) and Nicole Kidman (Boy Erased) for nominations, not to mention the likes of Colette and Peterloo, so know for sure that at least a handful of the following are destined to fall flat.

The main mystery of the coming awards season remains, of course, Martin Scorsese’s The Irishman, which seems destined for critical and commercial success but, for all we know, could also wind up with a Casino-level reception. Uncertainty also lingers over Greta Gerwig’s Little Women and Sam Mendes’ 1917, plus Todd Haynes’ Dark Waters, Jay Roach’s Bombshell and yes..sigh…Tom Hooper’s Cats. Less of a question mark is Noah Baumbach’s Marriage Story, perhaps on the verge of being the first film since American Hustle to score in all four acting categories.

Charlize Theron and Renee Zellweger are on the hunt for their second golden guys, while the likes of veterans Julie Hagerty and Jonathan Pryce seek first career nominations. And then, of course, there is Annette Bening, who this year could land career Oscar nom #5.

With all that said, here is my current hunch on how the race goes down, with predictions ranked from most to least likely to be nominated. I plan to update everything sometime in mid-October and perhaps at that time will take a shot at Best Original Song. Also, sorry to any names I’ve neglected to include on the techs end!

Enjoy! :)

Best Picture

1. Marriage Story

2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

3. The Irishman

4. 1917

5. Waves

6. The Farewell

7. Ford v. Ferrari

8. Little Women

9. Bombshell
   —

10. The Two Popes

11. Dark Waters

12. The Report

13. Cats

14. Dolemite Is My Name

15. Just Mercy

Best Director

1. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman

2. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

3. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story

4. Sam Mendes, 1917

5. Pedro Almodovar, Pain and Glory
   —

6. Joon-Ho Bong, Parasite

7. Trey Edward Schults, Waves

8. Lulu Wang, The Farewell

9. Jay Roach, Bombshell

10. Greta Gerwig, Little Women

Best Actress

1. Renee Zellweger, Judy

2. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story

3. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women

4. Charlize Theron, Bombshell

5. Alfre Woodard, Clemency
   —

6. Awkwafina, The Farewell

7. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet

8. Helen Mirren, The Good Liar

9. Lupita Nyong’o, Us

10. Jodie Turner-Smith, Queen & Slim

Best Actor

1. Adam Driver, Marriage Story

2. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory

3. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes

4. Christian Bale, Ford v. Ferrari

5. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name
   —

6. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker

7. Robert De Niro, The Irishman

8. Mark Ruffalo, Dark Waters

9. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

10. Ian McKellen, The Good Liar

Best Supporting Actress

1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story

2. Annette Bening, The Report

3. Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

4. Jennifer Hudson, Cats

5. Anna Paquin, The Irishman
   —

6. Zhao Shuzhen, The Farewell

7. Julie Hagerty, Marriage Story

8. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers

9. Meryl Streep, Little Women

10. Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey

Best Supporting Actor

1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

2. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes

3. Alan Alda, Marriage Story

4. John Lithgow, Bombshell

5. Sterling K. Brown, Waves
   —

6. Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy

7. Kelvin Harrison, Jr., Waves

8. Al Pacino, The Irishman

9. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

10. Ian McKellen, Cats

Best Original Screenplay

1. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story

2. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

3. Trey Edward Schults, Waves

4. Lulu Wang, The Farewell

5. Pedro Almodovar, Pain and Glory
   —

6. Joon-Ho Bong and Jin Won Han, Parasite

7. Scott Z. Burns, The Report

8. Charles Randolph, Bombshell

9. Jez Butterworth, John-Henry Butterworth, Jason Keller and James Mangold, Ford v. Ferrari

10. Scott Alexander and Larry Karaszewski, Dolemite Is My Name

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Steven Zaiillian, The Irishman

2. Greta Gerwig, Little Women

3. Frank Cottrell-Boyce and Anthony McCarten, The Two Popes

4. Matthew Michael Carnahan and Mario Correa, Dark Waters

5. Micah Fitzerman-Blue and Noah Harpster, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
   —

6. Destin Daniel Cretton and Andrew Lanham, Just Mercy

7. Julian Fellowes, Downton Abbey

8. Todd Phillips and Scott Silver, Joker

9. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit

10. Jeffrey Hatcher, The Good Liar

Best Animated Feature

1. Toy Story 4

2. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World

3. Frozen II

4. Missing Link

5. Okko’s Inn
   —

6. Abominable

7. The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part

8. A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon

9. Funan

10. The Secret Life of Pets 2

Best Documentary Feature

1. Apollo 11

2. Maiden

3. Aquarela

4. Mike Wallace Is Here

5. Rolling Thunder Revue: A Bob Dylan Story
   —

6. Amazing Grace

7. Pavarotti

8. Untouchable

9. Knock Down the House

10. Ask Dr. Ruth

Best Cinematography

1. Roger Deakins, 1917

2. Rodrigo Prieto, The Irishman

3. Robert Richardson, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

4. Phedon Papamichael, Ford v. Ferrari

5. Drew Daniels, Waves
   —

6. Christopher Ross, Cats

7. Jorg Widmer, A Hidden Life

8. George Steel, The Aeronauts

9. Edward Lachmann, Dark Waters

10. Yorick Le Saux, Little Women

Best Costume Design

1. Arianne Phillips, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

2. Christopher Peterson and Sandy Powell, The Irishman

3. Jacqueline Durran, Little Women

4. Ruth E. Carter, Dolemite Is My Name

5. Paco Delgado, Cats
   —

6. Jany Temime, Judy

7. Jacqueline Durran, 1917

8. Ellen Mirojnick, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil

9. Julian Day, Rocketman

10. Mayes C. Rubeo, Jojo Rabbit

Best Film Editing

1. Thelma Schoonmaker, The Irishman

2. Michael McCusker, Ford v. Ferrari

3. Fred Raskin, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

4. Lee Smith, 1917

5. John Poll, Bombshell
   —

6. Trey Edward Shults and Isaac Hagy, Waves

7. Jennifer Lame, Marriage Story

8. Maryann Brandon and Stefan Grube, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

9. Melanie Oliver, Cats

10. Greg O’Bryant, The Report

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

1. Vivian Baker, Jaime Leigh McIntosh, Anne Morgan and Cristina Waltz, Bombshell

2. Jeremy Woodhead, Judy

3. Uxue Laguardia and Niamh O’Loan, Cats

4. Debra Denson, Carla Farmer, Stacey Morris and Vera Steimberg Moder, Dolemite Is My Name

5. Belinda Anderson and Angie Wells, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
   —

6. Kay Georgiou and Nicki Ledermann, Joker

7. Sacha Carter, Paul Gooch and David White, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil

8. Janine Rath and Heba Thorisdottir, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

9. Frioa Aradottir and Jennifer Bell, Little Women

10. Lizzie Georglou and Elizabeth Yianni-Georgiou, Rocketman

Best Original Score

1. John Williams, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

2. Thomas Newman, 1917

3. Alexandre Desplat, Little Women

4. Marco Beltrami, Ford v. Ferrari

5. Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, Waves
   —

6. Randy Newman, Marriage Story

7. Scott Bomar, Dolemite Is My Name

8. Nate Heller, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

9. Carter Burwell, The Good Liar

10. Danny Elfman, Dumbo

Best Production Design

1. Nancy Haigh and Barbara Ling, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

2. Dennis Gassner, 1917

3. Regina Graves and Bob Shaw, The Irishman

4. Eve Stewart, Cats

5. Rick Carter and Kevin Jenkins, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
   —

6. David Hindle and Christian Huband, The Aeronauts

7. Claire Kaufman, Little Women

8. Dominic Capon and Patrick Tatopoulos, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil

9. Francois Audouy and Peter Lando, Ford v. Ferrari

10. Clay A. Griffith and Lisa K. Sessions, Dolemite Is My Name

Best Sound Editing

1. David Acord and Matthew Wood, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

2. Eric A. Norris and Donald Sylvester, Ford v. Ferrari

3. The team from 1917

4. Shannon Mills and Samson Neslund, Avengers: Endgame

5. Harry Cohen and Leo Marcil, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
   —

6. The team from Cats

7. Saoirse Christopherson and Lee Walpole, The Aeronauts

8. Teresa Eckton, J.R. Grubbs, Kimberly Patrick and Dee Selby, Captain Marvel

9. Philip Stockton, The Irishman

10. Craig Henighan, Terminator: Dark Fate

Best Sound Mixing

1. Ben Burtt and Andy Nelson, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

2. Richard Bullock, Jr., Paul Massey and Steven Morrow, Ford v. Ferrari

3. Scott Millan, 1917

4. Michael Minkler, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

5. Simon Hayes, Cats
   —

6. Tom Johnson, Juan Peralta and Douglas Parker, Avengers: Endgame

7. Stuart Hilliker and Lee Walpole, The Aeronauts

8. Tod A. Maitland, The Irishman

9. Paul Cotterell and Johnathan Rush, Judy

10. John Hayes, Rocketman

Best Visual Effects

1. Roger Guyett and Dominic Tuohy, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

2. Dan DeLeeuw, Russell Earl, Kelly Port and Daniel Sudick, Avengers: Endgame

3. Pablo Helman and Jiwoong Kim, The Irishman

4. The team from Cats

5. Romain Arnoux, Louis Morin and Jean-Francois Ferland, The Aeronauts
   —

6. Daniel Sudick and Christopher Townsend, Captain Marvel

7. Robert Legato, Elliot Newman and Adam Valdez, The Lion King

8. The team from 1917

9. The team from Terminator: Dark Fate

10. Mark Hawker, Bryan Hirota and Bill Westenhofer, Gemini Man