2020 Oscar Nomination Predictions (September)

Howdy, friends!

By this point in years past, I’d have already released my first set of Summer Oscar Predictions and be in the midst of revising them for an updated September set. Having seen a grand total of four - no, not 14…4 - 2020 releases at this point, let’s just say I haven’t exactly been engaged or inspired to explore what is destined to be the most haphazard of awards seasons.

With more trailers dropping and theaters (inexplicably) starting to reopen their doors, however, I figured I’d go ahead and give this a shot - at this point, just in the top eight categories.

If we’re indeed going to have an Oscars on April 25, I’m hopeful more contenders will be added to the calendar, as the film landscape ahead strikes me as atypically, if understandably, barren. I’m not sold, for instance, on West Side Story proving a force to be reckoned with or Da 5 Bloods even being remembered by the time 2021 rolls around, yet I couldn’t help but include them, including in Best Picture. I’m even less convinced Dune, which I’ve seen grace countless pundits’ major predictions, will be a player beyond technical categories but perhaps it too could break through.

At this point, of course, with many of these films still unseen, these hunches are total shots in the dark. Mank and The Trial of the Chicago 7 sure look formidable on paper but the Academy has broken the hearts of David Fincher and Aaron Sorkin before. And I’m super excited and curious to see what comes of Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, which might be my favorite of all August Wilson works, yet I wouldn’t necessarily call that a popular opinion (its forgotten Broadway revival, with Whoopi Goldberg and Charles S. Dutton, was a critical and commercial disaster).

And then, of course, there’s Glenn. And Michelle Pfeiffer! Imagine if both Dangerous Liaisons ladies somehow manage to win. The dream of that alone gets me pretty pumped about Oscar season, even if such sorely overdue victories are accepted over Zoom.

One year ago, I was predicted the likes of Waves in Best Picture and Jennifer Hudson in Best Supporting Actress (for Cats, obvs), so of course take these bad boys with a grain of salt… :)

Best Picture

1. Mank

2. The Trial of the Chicago 7

3. News of the World

4. Hillbilly Elegy

5. Soul

6. Nomadland

7. The Father

8. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

9. West Side Story

10. Da 5 Bloods
    —

11. Ammonite

12. Respect

13. Minari

14. Judas and the Black Messiah

15. One Night in Miami

Best Director

1. David Fincher, Mank

2. Paul Greengrass, News of the World

3. Ron Howard, Hillbilly Elegy

4. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7

5. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
   —

6. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari

7. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods

8. Florian Zeller, The Father

9. Francis Lee, Ammonite

10. Regina King, One Night in Miami

Best Actress

1. Frances McDormand, Nomadland

2. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

3. Kate Winslet, Ammonite

4. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy

5. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit
   —

6. Jennifer Hudson, Respect

7. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead

8. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman

9. Jennifer Lawrence, Red, White and Water

10. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday

Best Actor

1. Anthony Hopkins, The Father

2. Tom Hanks, News of the World

3. Gary Oldman, Mank

4. Eddie Redmayne, The Trial of the Chicago 7

5. Joaquin Phoenix, C’mon C’mon
   —

6. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah

7. Bill Murray, On the Rocks

8. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods

9. Gabriel Basso, Hillbilly Elegy

10. Steven Yeun, Minari

Best Supporting Actress

1. Olivia Colman, The Father

2. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy

3. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite

4. Meryl Streep, The Prom

5. Helena Zengel, News of the World
   —

6. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story

7. Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans

8. Audra McDonald, Respect

9. Amanda Seyfried, Mank

10. Youn Yuh-jung, Minari

Best Supporting Actor

1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

2. David Strathairn, Nomadland

3. Tom Pelphrey, Mank

4. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7

5. Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7
   —

6. Jeremy Strong, The Trial of the Chicago 7

7. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7

8. Richard Jenkins, The Humans

9. Martin Sheen, Judas and the Black Messiah

10. Glynn Turman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Best Original Screenplay

1. Jack Fincher, Mank

2. Pete Docter, Tina Fey, Mike Jones and Kemp Powers, Soul

3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7

4. Spike Lee, Danny Bilson, Pail De Meo and Kevin Willmott, Da 5 Bloods

5. Francis Lee, Ammonite
   —

6. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari

7. Mike Mills, C’mon C’mon

8. Sofia Coppola, On the Rocks

9. Shaka King and Will Berson, Judas and the Black Messiah

10. Eliza Hittman, Never Rarely Sometimes Always

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller, The Father

2. Ruben Santiago-Hudson, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

3. Vanessa Taylor, Hillbilly Elegy

4. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland

5. Luke Davies and Paul Greengrass, News of the World
   —

6. Patrick deWitt, French Exit

7. Suzan Lori-Parks, The United States vs. Billie Holiday

8. Kemp Powers, One Night in Miami

9. Stephen Karam, The Humans

10. Iain Morris and Taika Waititi, Next Goal Wins