FINAL 2022 Oscar Winner Predictions

At last!

On the heels of an awards season that felt destined to never end, we are finally here. And, with an exception here and there, most categories remain brimming with suspense.

Among the races not so unpredictable at the 11 o'clock hour are Best Picture and Best Director, where PGA winner Everything Everywhere All at Once and DGA honorees Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert appear destined for victories.

That isn’t to say they’re unbeatable but it’s challenging at this point to even determine what/who is closest behind them. This is a contender peaking at precisely the right moment in momentum. Its lone lackluster showing was at BAFTA, where All Quiet on the Western Front was more embraced, but good luck predicting that one for Best Picture without directing or acting bids here. I’m inclined to think The Banshees of Inisherin, which has a Best Director nom and could still cobble together acting/writing wins, is the most formidable threat to Everything Everywhere.

Much more chaotic are the acting showdowns, which remain exceedingly tough to forecast.

If there’s a reasonably easy race to call, it’s Best Supporting Actor, where Ke Huy Quan has maintained a healthy front-runner status. He did fall short to Barry Keoghan at BAFTA, so don’t call Quan a shoo-in, but it would nonetheless be flabbergasting to see him fall short on the big night. Were that to happen, which it almost surely won’t, Everything Everywhere will not be winning Best Picture.

If there’s a dark horse in the field, albeit still a long shot at that, it might be Judd Hirsch, who hasn’t been much a presence this awards season but is still a beloved veteran who’s worked with countless AMPAS members.

As for Best Supporting Actress…hmm lol. I thought for sure Angela Bassett would triumph at SAG, leading to a Bassett vs. Kerry Condon barnburner that probably results in a Condon Oscar win. I did not think voters could decide between the Everything Everywhere contenders and yet, that’s exactly what happened at SAG with the Jamie Lee Curtis upset.

Now, I’m increasingly cool on Bassett’s odds - her big wins were with the Golden Globes and Critics Choice, neither of which vote on the Oscars - and I’m even a little warier on Condon’s chances. Curtis really could ride an Everything Everywhere wave to victory, should it prove powerful enough. Nonetheless, I do slightly lean toward BAFTA winner Condon, as it’s the sort of role that historically is much more up the AMPAS alley (at least when it comes to wins) than the comic work Curtis turns in.

Frankly, in a field this unsettled, the likes of Hsu and Chau cannot be entirely counted out either though, without precursor wins behind them, it’s a little tough articulating cases for them.

No easier to project are the two Lead races, with Austin Butler & Brendan Fraser and Cate Blanchett & Michelle Yeoh deadlocked in their respective fields.

The Whale’s overall underperformance in nominations, coupled with the robust showing of support for Elvis, leans me in Butler’s direction. I struggle a tad more with Best Actress, given both Everything Everywhere and TÁR have such healthy support across the board. It’s been hard to shake the feeling that, despite Everything Everywhere’s incredible awards season run and the focus on Yeoh, Blanchett continues to ring as an undeniable winner. So I’ll stick with her, especially considering AMPAS’ penchant for repeat winners in Best Actress.

Keep a close eye on Best Original Screenplay, a race that will hint at what’s to come over the rest of the night. Should Everything Everywhere triumph there, it’s almost surely going all the way. For the other contenders, namely Banshees and The Fabelmans, it is imperative they score there to have any prayer in Best Picture.

The other writing race, in Best Adapted Screenplay, feels like a pure toss-up between All Quiet on the Western Front and Women Talking. The former needs that and a virtual sweep of its crafts bids to have a shot for the top prize.

Speaking of the crafts categories, what once felt like fertile ground for Top Gun: Maverick now rings as prime opportunities for All Quiet to score wins - in fact, I don’t have Top Gun taking anything in my final predictions, though it’s awfully close in Best Film Editing and Best Sound. Watch Elvis, which could score more trophies than anticipated down the ballot. And yes, Diane Warren will again lose in Best Original Song.

So…that’s that! This is going to be an exceedingly exciting evening and anyone who can somehow correctly predict all of these categories is to be commended. See yas on the other side! :)

Best Picture

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once

2. The Banshees of Inisherin

3. All Quiet on the Western Front

4. The Fabelmans

5. Elvis

6. Top Gun: Maverick

7. TÁR

8. Triangle of Sadness

9. Women Talking

10. Avatar: The Way of Water

Best Director

1. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once

2. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans

3. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin

4. Todd Field, TÁR

5. Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness

Best Actress

1. Cate Blanchett, TÁR

2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

3. Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie

4. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans

5. Ana de Armas, Blonde

Best Actor

1. Austin Butler, Elvis

2. Brendan Fraser, The Whale

3. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin

4. Paul Mescal, Aftersun

5. Bill Nighy, Living

Best Supporting Actress

1. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin

2. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once

3. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

4. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once

5. Hong Chau, The Whale

Best Supporting Actor

1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

2. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin

3. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans

4. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin

5. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway

Best Original Screenplay

1. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin

2. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once

3. Todd Field, TÁR

4. Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner, The Fabelmans

5. Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Ian Stokell, Lesley Paterson and Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front

2. Sarah Polley, Women Talking

3. Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Singer, Christopher McQuarrie, Top Gun: Maverick

4. Rian Johnson, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

5. Kazuo Ishiguro, Living

Best Animated Feature

1. Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio

2. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

3. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

4. The Sea Beast

5. Turning Red

Best Animated Short Film

1. The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse

2. My Year of Dicks

3. Ice Merchants

4. The Flying Sailor

5. An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It

Best Documentary Feature

1. Navalny

2. Fire of Love

3. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

4. All That Breathes

5. A House Made of Splinters

Best Documentary Short Film

1. The Elephant Whisperers

2. Stranger at the Gate

3. Haulout

4. How Do You Measure a Year?

5. The Martha Mitchell Effect

Best International Feature

1. All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)

2. Argentina, 1985 (Argentina)

3. The Quiet Girl (Ireland)

4. EO (Poland)

5. Close (Belgium)

Best Live Action Short Film

1. An Irish Goodbye

2. Le pupille

3. Night Ride

4. The Red Suitcase

5. Ivalu

Best Cinematography

1. Mandy Walker, Elvis

2. James Friend, All Quiet on the Western Front

3. Florian Hoffmeister, TÁR

4. Darius Khondji, Bardo

5. Roger Deakins, Empire of Light

Best Costume Design

1. Ruth E. Carter, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

2. Shirley Kurata, Everything Everywhere All At Once

3. Catherine Martin, Elvis

4. Mary Zophres, Babylon

5. Jenny Beavan, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

Best Film Editing

1. Paul Rogers, Everything Everywhere All at Once

2. Eddie Hamilton, Top Gun: Maverick

3. Matt Villa and Jonathan Redmond‎, Elvis

4. Monika Willi, TÁR

5. Mikkel E.G. Nielsen, The Banshees of Inisherin

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

1. Shane Thomas, Mark Coulier, Jason Baird and Louise Coulston, Elvis

2. Adrien Morot, Judy Chin and Anne Marie Bradley, The Whale

3. Heike Merker, All Quiet on the Western Front

4. Joel Harlow, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

5. Naomi Donne, Mike Marino and Zoe Tahir, The Batman

Best Original Score

1. Volker Bertelmann, All Quiet on the Western Front

2. Son Lux, Everything Everywhere All at Once

3. Justin Hurwitz, Babylon

4. John Williams, The Fabelmans

5. Carter Burwell, The Banshees of Inisherin

Best Original Song

1. “Naatu Naatu,” RRR

2. “This Is a Life,” Everything Everywhere All at Once

3. “Hold My Hand,” Top Gun: Maverick

4. “Lift Me Up,” Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

5. “Applause,” Tell It Like a Woman

Best Production Design

1. Catherine Martin, Karen Murphy and Bev Dunn, Elvis

2. Florencia Martin and Anthony Carlino, Babylon

3. Christian M. Goldbeck, All Quiet on the Western Front

4. Dylan Cole, Ben Procter and Vanessa Cole, Avatar: The Way of Water

5. Rick Carter and Karen O’Hara, The Fabelmans

Best Sound

1. Lars Ginzel, Frank Kruse, Markus Stemler and Viktor Prášil, All Quiet on the Western Front

2. Mark Weingarten, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Chris Burdon and Mark Taylor, Top Gun: Maverick

3. David Lee, Wayne Pashley, Andy Nelson and Michael Keller, Elvis

4. Gwen Whittle, Gary Summers, Mike Hedges, Chris Boyes, Tony Johnson and Julian Howarth, Avatar: The Way of Water

5. Stuart Wilson, William Files, Douglas Murray, Andy Nelson and William Files, The Batman

Best Visual Effects

1. Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett, Avatar: The Way of Water

2. Markus Frank, Viktor Muller, Frank Petzold and Kamil Jafar, All Quiet on the Western Front

3. Ryan Tudhope, Scott R. Fisher, Seth Hill and Bryan Litson, Top Gun: Maverick

4. Geoffrey Baumann, Craig Hammack, Hanzhi Tang and Dan Sudick, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

5. Dan Lemmon, Russell Earl, Anders Langland and Dominic Tuoh, The Batman