2016 Oscar Nomination Predictions (November)

Howdy, fellow Oscar junkies!

Since October and my last set of Oscar predictions, the following events have gone down in this wild and awesome ride of an awards season:

• Ang Lee's Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk garnered mixed-to-negative notices from attendees of its New York Film Festival premiere.
   
• Paramount Pictures announced Viola Davis will receive a Best Supporting Actress campaign for her turn in Denzel Washington's Fences.
   
• New trailers dropped for Annette Bening pics 20th Century Women and Rules Don't Apply.
   
• The Academy announced 85 foreign language films and 145 documentary features will compete for consideration in their respective categories.

Please check out below my latest Oscar predix, for the month of November. In parentheses you will find how many slots a contender has moved up or down since my October rankings. In a number of cases (I'm looking at you, Billy Lynn), I have booted a film or performer entirely.

Enjoy and, as always, feel free to comment with your own thoughts as well!

Best Picture

1. La La Land (-)
2. Jackie (-)
3. Arrival (+3)
4. Manchester by the Sea (-1)
5. Silence (+2)
6. Moonlight (+4)
7. Fences (-3)
8. Loving (-)
9. Hidden Figures (-)
   ---
10. Rules Don't Apply (+5)
11. 20th Century Women (+1)
12. Lion (-1)
13. Sully (NEW)
14. Nocturnal Animals (-1)
15. Allied (-1)

DROPPED
Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (-10)

Best Director

1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (-)
2. Denis Villanueve, Arrival (-)
3. Martin Scorsese, Silence (+1)
4. Pablo Larrain, Jackie (+2)
5. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (+2)
   ---
6. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (+4)
7. Denzel Washington, Fences (-2)
8. Warren Beatty, Rules Don't Apply (+1)
9. Clint Eastwood, Sully (NEW)
10. Jeff Nichols, Loving (-2)

DROPPED
Ang Lee, Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (-7)

Best Lead Actor

1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (-)
2. Denzel Washington, Fences (-)
3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (-)
4. Joel Edgerton, Loving (-)
5. Andrew Garfield, Silence (+1)
   ---
6. Warren Beatty, Rules Don't Apply (NEW)
7. Tom Hanks, Sully (-)
8. Michael Keaton, The Founder (+1)
9. Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals (-1)
10. Robert De Niro, The Comedian (NEW)

DROPPED:
Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (-5)
Dev Patel, Lion (-1)

Best Lead Actress

1. Emma Stone, La La Land (-)
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (-)
3. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (+1)
4. Amy Adams, Arrival (+3)
5. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (-)
   ---
6. Ruth Negga, Loving (-)
7. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (+1)
8. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (+1)
9. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (+1)
10. Kate Beckinsale, Love & Friendship (NEW)

DROPPED
Viola Davis, Fences (-7)

Best Supporting Actor

1. Liam Neeson, Silence (-)
2. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (+2)
3. Peter Sarsgaard, Jackie (-)
4. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (-2)
5. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (+1)
   ---
6. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (-1)
7. Adam Driver, Silence (-)
8. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (NEW)
9. Dev Patel, Lion (NEW)
10. Stephen Henderson, Fences (-1)

DROPPED
Steve Martin, Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (-3)
Mykelti Williamson, Fences (-1)

Best Supporting Actress

1. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (-)
2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (-)
3. Viola Davis, Fences (NEW)
4. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (-1)
5. Nicole Kidman, Lion (-)
   ---
6. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (-)
7. Lupita Nyong'o, Queen of Katwe (-)
8. Annette Bening, Rules Don't Apply (-)
9. Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls (-)
10. Molly Shannon, Other People (-)

DROPPED
Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (-6)

Best Original Screenplay

1. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (-)
2. Noah Oppenheim, Jackie (-)
3. Barry Jenkins and Tarell McCraney, Moonlight (+1)
4. Jeff Nichols, Loving (-1)
5. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (-)
   ---
6. Warren Beatty, Rules Don't Apply (+3)
7. Mike Mills, 20th Century Women (-1)
8. Jared Bush, Byron Howard, Phil Johnston, Jennifer Lee, Rich Moore, Jim Reardon and Josie Trinidad, Zootopia (-1)
9. Ron Clements and John Musker, Moana (-1)
10. Asghar Farhadi, The Salesman (-)

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. August Wilson, Fences (-)
2. Eric Heisserer, Arrival (+5)
3. Jay Cocks, Silence (-)
4. Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals (-)
5. Allison Schroeder, Hidden Figures (-)
   ---
6. Luke Davies, Lion (-)
7. Ben Affleck, Live by Night (+1)
8. Whit Stillman, Love & Friendship (+1)
9. David Birke, Elle (+1)
10. Todd Komarnicki, Sully (NEW)

DROPPED
Jean-Christophe Castelli, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (-9)

Best Animated Feature

1. Zootopia (-)
2. Moana (-)
3. Sing (-)
4. The Red Turtle (-)
5. Finding Dory (-)
   ---
6. Kubo and the Two Strings (-)
7. April and the Extraordinary World (-)
8. Miss Hokusai (-)
9. Sausage Party (-)
10. The Secret Life of Pets (-)

Best Cinematography

1. Linus Sandgren, La La Land (-)
2. Bradford Young, Arrival (+1)
3. Stephanie Fontaine, Jackie (+1)
4. Rodrigo Prieto, Silence (+1)
5. Seamus McGarvey, Nocturnal Animals (+1)
   ---
6. Bill Pope, The Jungle Book (+1)
7. Robert Richardson, Live by Night (+1)
8. James Laxton, Moonlight (+1)
9. Caleb Deschanel, Rules Don't Apply (NEW)
10. Charlotte Bruus Christiansen, Fences (-)

DROPPED
John Toll, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (-9)

Best Costume Design

1. Mary Zophres, La La Land (-)
2. Madeline Fontaine, Jackie (-)
3. Sandy Powell, Silence (-)
4. Albert Wolsky, Rules Don't Apply (-)
5. Eimer Ni Mhaoldomhnaigh, Love & Friendship (-)
   ---
6. Consolata Boyle, Florence Foster Jenkins (-)
7. Colleen Atwood, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (+2)
8. Sharen Davis, Fences (-)
9. Jacqueline West, Live by Night (+1)
10. Joanna Johnston, Allied (-3)

Best Film Editing

1. Tom Cross, La La Land (-)
2. Thelma Schoonmaker, Silence (+1)
3. Joe Walker, Arrival (+3)
4. Sebastián Sepúlveda, Jackie (-2)
5. Joi McMillon and Nat Sanders, Moonlight (+3)
   ---
6. Joan Sobel, Nocturnal Animals (+1)
7. Jennifer Lame, Manchester by the Sea (+2)
8. Hughes Winborne, Fences (-2)
9. Blu Murray, Sully (NEW)
10. Alexandre de Francheschi, Lion (NEW)

DROPPED
Tim Squyre, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (-7)
Jeremiah O’Driscoll, Allied (-1)

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

1. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (-)
2. Florence Foster Jenkins (-)
3. Rules Don't Apply (-)
   ---
4. Jackie (+1)
5. Hail, Caesar! (+1)
6. Silence (NEW)
7. Love & Friendship (-3)
8. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (-1)
9. Star Trek: Beyond (+1)
10. Live by Night (-2)

DROPPED
Hidden Figures (-2)

Best Original Score

1. Johann Johansson, Arrival (+1)
2. Howard Shore, Silence (+1)
3. Mica Levi, Jackie (+1)
4. Opetaia Foa’i, Mark Mancina and Lin-Manuel Miranda, Moana (-3)
5. Michael Giacchino, Zootopia (+1)
   ---
6. Justin Hurwitz, La La Land (+1)
7. Michael Giacchino, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (+1)
8. Alexandre Desplat, Florence Foster Jenkins (+2)
9. John Williams, The BFG (NEW)
10. Thomas Newman, Finding Dory (-1)

DROPPED
Jeff and Mychael Danna, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (-6)

Best Original Song

1. "City of Stars," La La Land (-)
2. "Audition," La La Land (+1)
3. "We Know the Way," Moana (-1)
4. "How Far I'll Go," Moana (-)
5. "Victory," Hidden Figures (-)
   ---
6. "Go Now," Sing Street (-)
7. "A Letter to the Free," 13th (-)
8. "The Great Beyond, Sausage Party (-)
9. "Can't Stop the Feeling," Trolls (-)
10. "Rules Don't Apply," Rules Don't Apply (NEW)

DROPPED
"Dancing in the Shadows," Po (-1)

Best Production Design

1. David Wasco, La La Land (-)
2. Dante Ferretti, Silence (-)
3. Jean Rabasse, Jackie (-)
4. Jeannine Oppewall, Rules Don't Apply (-)
5. Stuart Craig, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (-)
   ---
6. Anna Rackard, Love & Friendship (+2)
7. Jess Gonchor, Live by Night (+2)
8. Patrice Vermette, Arrival (NEW)
9. Gary Freeman, Allied (-3)
10. David Gropman, Fences (-3)

DROPPED
Mark Friedberg, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (-2)

Best Sound Editing

1. La La Land (-)
2. Arrival (-)
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (-)
4. Silence (+1)
5. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (+2)
   ---
6. Captain America: Civil War (+4)
7. Passengers (+2)
8. Sully (NEW)
9. Hacksaw Ridge (NEW)
10. Moana (-4)

DROPPED
Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (-7)
Allied (-3)

Best Sound Mixing

1. La La Land (-)
2. Arrival (-)
3. Silence (+1)
4. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (+2)
5. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (+2)
   ---
6. Moana (-1)
7. Zootopia (+3)
8. Sully (NEW)
9. Captain America: Civil War (NEW)
10. Passengers (-1)

DROPPED
Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (-8)
Allied (-3)

Best Visual Effects

1. Arrival (-)
2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (-)
3. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (+2)
4. Passengers (-1)
5. The Jungle Book (+1)
   ---
6. Captain America: Civil War (+1)
7. Doctor Strange (NEW)
8. Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (-3)
9. A Monster Calls (-1)
10. Star Trek: Beyond (-1)

DROPPED
Deadpool (-1)

Best Documentary Feature

1. 13th (-)
2. Gleason (-)
3. Lo and Behold, Reveries of the Connected World (+7)
4. Equal Means Equal (-)
5. The Eagle Huntress (NEW)
   ---
6. Fire at Sea (+1)
7. Miss Sharon Jones (+1)
8. By Sidney Lumet (+1)
9. The Beatles: Eight Days a Week - The Touring Years (NEW)
10. Newtown (-5)

DROPPED
The Seasons in Quincy: Four Portraits of John Berger (-8)
Three Days of Terror: The Charlie Hebdo Attacks (-5)

Best Foreign Language Film

1. The Salesman (Iran) (-)
2. Toni Erdmann (Germany) (NEW)
3. Death in Sarajevo (Bosnia and Herzegovina) (-1)
4. Elle (France) (-1)
5. Sand Storm (Israel) (-1)
   ---
6. Ma'Rosa (Phillippines) (-1)
7. Julieta (Spain) (-1)
8. From Afar (Venezuela) (-1)
9. The Happiest Day in the Life of Olli Mäki (Finland) (-1)
10. Barakah Meets Barakah (Saudi Arabia) (-1)

DROPPED
Train Driver's Diary (Serbia) (-1)

2016 Contenders in Best Documentary Feature

The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences has announced 145 films have been submitted for consideration in the category of Best Documentary Feature. They are:

The Abolitionists
Abortion: Stories Women Tell
All Governments Lie: Truth, Deception, and the Spirit of I.F. Stone
Almost Holy
Amanda Knox
Among the Believers
Anne Frank Then and Now
The Anthropologist
Apparition Hill
Art Bastard
The Ataxian
Audrie & Daisy
Author: The JT Leroy Story
The Bad Kids
Be Here Now (The Andy Whitfield Story)
The Beatles: Eight Days a Week - The Touring Years
A Beautiful Planet
Beauty Bites Beast
Becoming Mike Nichols
Before the Flood
Behind Bayonets and Barbed Wire
Behind the Cove - The Quiet Japanese Speak Out!
Best and Most Beautiful Things
The Best Democracy Money Can Buy: A Tale of Billionaires and Ballot Bandits
Best Worst Thing That Ever Could Have Happened
A Billion Lives
Black Women in Medicine
Blood on the Mountain
Boy 23: The Forgotten Boys of Brazil
The Brainwashing of My Dad
Bright Lights: Starring Carrie Fisher and Debbie Reynolds
By Sidney Lumet
The C Word
Cameraperson
Citizen Soldier
City of Gold
Class Divide
Colliding Dreams
Command and Control
Dancer
Danny Says
Defying the Nazis: The Sharps’ War
Disturbing the Peace
Do Not Resist
Don’t Blink - Robert Frank
The Eagle Huntress
Eat That Question: Frank Zappa in His Own Words
Eating You Alive
Equal Means Equal
Eva Hesse
Everything Is Copy - Nora Ephron: Scripted & Unscripted
A Family Affair
Finding Babel
Fire at Sea
The First Monday in May
Floyd Norman: An Animated Life
Francofonia
Generation Startup
Gimme Danger
Gleason
Harry & Snowman
Hate Rising with Jorge Ramos
Holy Hell
Hooligan Sparrow
How to Let Go of the World and Love All the Things Climate Can’t Change
Huntwatch
I Am Not Your Negro
Indian Point
Into the Inferno
Iron Moon
Ivory. A Crime Story
The Ivory Game
Jim: The James Foley Story
Kate Plays Christine
Keepers of the Game
Landfill Harmonic
The Last Man on the Moon
Life, Animated
Lo and Behold: Reveries of the Connected World
Look at Us Now, Mother!
The Lovers and the Despot
Magnus
Making a Killing: Guns, Greed, and the NRA
Mapplethorpe: Look at the Pictures
Marathon: The Patriots Day Bombing
Marinoni: The Fire in the Frame
Mavis!
Maya Angelou: And Still I Rise
Mifune: The Last Samurai
Miss Sharon Jones!
The Music of Strangers: Yo-Yo Ma and the Silk Road Ensemble
My Love, Don’t Cross That River
National Bird
National Parks Adventure
Never Surrender
Newtown
Norman Lear: Just Another Version of You
Notes on Blindness
Nuts!
O.J.: Made in America
Off the Rails
Older than Ireland
Olympic Pride, American Prejudice
On the Map
100 Years, One Woman’s Fight for Justice
Our Last Tango
Presenting Princess Shaw
The Red Pill
Rigged 2016
The Rolling Stones Olé Olé Olé!: A Trip across Latin America
Rooted in Peace
The Ruins of Lifta
Seasons
The Seventh Fire
Shadow World
Silicon Cowboys
Sky Ladder: The Art of Cai Guo-Qiang
Solitary
Southwest of Salem: The Story of the San Antonio Four
Starving the Beast
The Syndrome
Thank You for Your Service
Theo Who Lived
They Will Have to Kill Us First - Malian Music in Exile
13th
This Is Life
Tickled
Tony Robbins: I Am Not Your Guru
Tower
The Trans List
Trapped
Trezoros: The Lost Jews of Kastoria
USS Indianapolis The Legacy
The Uncondemned
Under the Gun
Under the Sun
Underfire: The Untold Story of Pfc. Tony Vaccaro
Unlocking the Cage
Vaxxed: From Cover-Up to Catastrophe
Voyage of Time: The IMAX Experience
We Are X
Weiner
When Two Worlds Collide
The Witness
Zero Days

2016 Oscar Nomination Predictions (October)

Over the past month, since my last/first set of Oscar predictions, the following events have gone down in this dizzying roller coaster of an awards season:

• Trailers for three Oscar contenders, all playing in the category of Best Lead Actress - Fences, Jackie and 20th Century Women - were (at last!) released.
   
• Two pictures - Martin Scorsese's Silence and Ben Affleck's Live By Night - were given late December release dates, making them eligible for Oscar consideration this year.
   
• Nate Parker's polarizing The Birth of a Nation, made all the more controversial on the heels of coverage surrounding Parker's past college rape trial, landed with a whimper at the box office, debuting in sixth place with about $7 million in domestic receipts. Fox Searchlight acquired the picture for more than $17 million.
   
• The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences announced 85 countries have officially submitted films for consideration in Best Foreign Language Film.
   
• In category placement news, Warren Beatty will be campaigned in Lead Actor for his upcoming Rules Don't Apply. To date, most had presumed, given the ensemble-y nature of the picture, Beatty would opt for a Supporting campaign.

Odds are, I'm overlooking something of significance - and no, I do not consider Patriots Day, which had its teaser recently drop, an Oscar contender at this point - but those are a few biggies for sure.

Please see below my latest Oscar predictions, for the month of October. In parentheses you will find how many slots a contender has moved up or down since my September rankings. In some cases, I have dropped a film or performer entirely.

Enjoy and, as always, feel free to comment with your own thoughts as well!

Best Picture

1. La La Land (-)
2. Jackie (+3)
3. Manchester by the Sea (-1)
4. Fences (-1)
5. Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (-1)
6. Arrival (+2)
7. Silence (-)
8. Loving (-2)
9. Hidden Figures (-)
   ---
10. Moonlight (+5)
11. Lion (-)
12. 20th Century Women (NEW)
13. Nocturnal Animals (-1)
14. Allied (-4)
15. Rules Don't Apply (-2)

DROPPED
The Birth of a Nation (-2)

Best Director

1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (-)
2. Denis Villanueve, Arrival (+3)
3. Ang Lee, Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (-1)
4. Martin Scorsese, Silence (-)
5. Denzel Washington, Fences (-2)
   ---
6. Pablo Larrain, Jackie (+4)
7. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (-1)
8. Jeff Nichols, Loving (-1)
9. Warren Beatty, Rules Don't Apply (-)
10. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (NEW)

DROPPED
Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals (-2)

Best Lead Actor

1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (-)
2. Denzel Washington, Fences (-)
3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (-)
4. Joel Edgerton, Loving (-)
5. Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (-)
   ---
6. Andrew Garfield, Silence (+3)
7. Tom Hanks, Sully (-1)
8. Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals (-1)
9. Michael Keaton, The Founder (-1)
10. Dev Patel, Lion (-)

Best Lead Actress

1. Emma Stone, La La Land (-)
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (-)
3. Viola Davis, Fences (-)
4. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (+4)
5. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (-1)
   ---
6. Ruth Negga, Loving (-1)
7. Amy Adams, Arrival (-1)
8. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (-1)
9. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (-)
10. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (-)

Best Supporting Actor

1. Liam Neeson, Silence (+4)
2. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (-1)
3. Peter Sarsgaard, Jackie (+4)
4. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (-2)
5. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (-1)
   ---
6. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (-)
7. Adam Driver, Silence (NEW)
8. Steve Martin, Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (-)
9. Stephen Henderson, Fences (-)
10. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (-)

DROPPED
Warren Beatty, Rules Don't Apply (-8)

Best Supporting Actress

1. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (-)
2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (-)
3. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (+6)
4. Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (-1)
5. Nicole Kidman, Lion (-1)
   ---
6. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (-1)
7. Lupita Nyong'o, Queen of Katwe (NEW)
8. Annette Bening, Rules Don't Apply (-)
9. Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls (-2)
10. Molly Shannon, Other People (NEW)

DROPPED
Elle Fanning, 20th Century Women (-2)
Laura Linney, Nocturnal Animals (-1)

Best Original Screenplay

1. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (-)
2. Noah Oppenheim, Jackie (+2)
3. Jeff Nichols, Loving (-1)
4. Barry Jenkins and Tarell McCraney, Moonlight (+3)
5. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (-2)
   ---
6. Mike Mills, 20th Century Women (NEW)
7. Jared Bush, Byron Howard, Phil Johnston, Jennifer Lee, Rich Moore, Jim Reardon and Josie Trinidad, Zootopia (-2)
8. Ron Clements and John Musker, Moana (-2)
9. Warren Beatty, Rules Don't Apply (-1)
10. Asghar Farhadi, The Salesman (-)

DROPPED
Steven Knight, Allied (-2)

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. August Wilson, Fences (-)
2. Jean-Christophe Castelli, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (-)
3. Jay Cocks, Silence (-)
4. Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals (-)
5. Allison Schroeder, Hidden Figures (-)
   ---
6. Luke Davies, Lion (-)
7. Eric Heisserer, Arrival (-)
8. Ben Affleck, Live by Night (NEW)
9. Whit Stillman, Love & Friendship (-1)
10. David Birke, Elle (-1)

DROPPED
Justin Marks, The Jungle Book (-1)

Best Animated Feature

1. Zootopia (-)
2. Moana (-)
3. Sing (-)
4. The Red Turtle (-)
5. Finding Dory (-)
   ---
6. Kubo and the Two Strings (-)
7. April and the Extraordinary World (+2)
8. Miss Hokusai (+2)
9. Sausage Party (-2)
10. The Secret Life of Pets (-2)

Best Cinematography

1. Linus Sandgren, La La Land (-)
2. John Toll, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (-)
3. Bradford Young, Arrival (-)
4. Stephanie Fontaine, Jackie (NEW)
5. Rodrigo Prieto, Silence (-1)
   ---
6. Seamus McGarvey, Nocturnal Animals (-1)
7. Bill Pope, The Jungle Book (-1)
8. Robert Richardson, Live by Night (NEW)
9. James Laxton, Moonlight (NEW)
10. Charlotte Bruus Christiansen, Fences (-3)

DROPPED
Elliot Davis, The Birth of a Nation (-3)
Greig Fraser, Lion (-2)
Don Burgess, Allied (-1)

Best Costume Design

1. Mary Zophres, La La Land (-)
2. Madeline Fontaine, Jackie (+5)
3. Sandy Powell, Silence (+4)
4. Albert Wolsky, Rules Don't Apply (-1)
5. Eimer Ni Mhaoldomhnaigh, Love & Friendship (-1)
   ---
6. Consolata Boyle, Florence Foster Jenkins (-1)
7. Joanna Johnston, Allied (-5)
8. Sharen Davis, Fences (-1)
9. Colleen Atwood, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (+1)
10. Jacqueline West, Live by Night (NEW)

DROPPED
Francine Jamison-Tanchuck, The Birth of a Nation (-2)

Best Film Editing

1. Tom Cross, La La Land (-)
2. Sebastián Sepúlveda, Jackie (NEW)
3. Thelma Schoonmaker, Silence (-1)
4. Tim Squyre, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (-1)
5. Joe Walker, Arrival (-1)
   ---
6. Hughes Winborne, Fences (-1)
7. Joan Sobel, Nocturnal Animals (-1)
8. Joi McMillon and Nat Sanders, Moonlight (+1)
9. Jennifer Lame, Manchester by the Sea (-2)
10. Jeremiah O’Driscoll, Allied (-)

DROPPED
Steven Rosenblum, The Birth of a Nation (-3)

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

1. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (+2)
2. Florence Foster Jenkins (-1)
3. Rules Don't Apply (-1)
   ---
4. Love & Friendship (-)
5. Jackie (+3)
6. Hail, Caesar! (+3)
7. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (+3)
8. Live by Night (NEW)
9. Hidden Figures (-4)
10. Star Trek: Beyond (-3)

DROPPED
La La Land (-5)

Best Original Score

1. Opetaia Foa’i, Mark Mancina and Lin-Manuel Miranda, Moana (-)
2. Johann Johansson, Arrival (+2)
3. Howard Shore, Silence (+3)
4. Mica Levi, Jackie (+3)
5. Jeff and Mychael Danna, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (-1)
   ---
6. Michael Giacchino, Zootopia (-4)
7. Justin Hurwitz, La La Land (-2)
8. Michael Giacchino, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (NEW)
9. Thomas Newman, Finding Dory (-1)
10. Alexandre Desplat, Florence Foster Jenkins (-1)

DROPPED
Henry Jackman, The Birth of a Nation (-1)

Best Original Song

1. "City of Stars," La La Land (-)
2. "We Know the Way," Moana (-)
3. "Audition," La La Land (-)
4. "How Far I'll Go," Moana (-)
5. "Victory," Hidden Figures (+1)
   ---
6. "Go Now," Sing Street (-1)
7. "A Letter to the Free," 13th (NEW)
8. "The Great Beyond, Sausage Party (-1)
9. "Can't Stop the Feeling," Trolls (-1)
10. "Dancing in the Shadows," Po (NEW)

DROPPED
"Try Everything," Zootopia (-2)
"Drive It Like You Stole It," Sing Street (-1)

Best Production Design

1. David Wasco, La La Land (-)
2. Dante Ferretti, Silence (+1)
3. Jean Rabasse, Jackie (+6)
4. Jeannine Oppewall, Rules Don't Apply (-2)
5. Stuart Craig, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (+1)
   ---
6. Gary Freeman, Allied (-2)
7. David Gropman, Fences (-2)
8. Anna Rackard, Love & Friendship (-1)
9. Mark Friedberg, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (+1)
10. Jess Gonchor, Live by Night (NEW)

DROPPED
Geoffrey Kirkland, The Birth of a Nation (-3)

Best Sound Editing

1. La La Land (-)
2. Arrival (-)
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (+1)
4. Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (-1)
5. Silence (-)
   ---
6. Moana (-)
7. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (NEW)
8. Allied (-1)
9. Passengers (-1)
10. Captain America: Civil War (-)

DROPPED
Deepwater Horizon (-2)

Best Sound Mixing

1. La La Land (-)
2. Arrival (-)
3. Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (-)
4. Silence (-)
5. Moana (-)
   ---
6. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (+1)
7. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (NEW)
8. Allied (-2)
9. Passengers (-1)
10. Zootopia (-1)

DROPPED
Deepwater Horizon (-1)

Best Visual Effects

1. Arrival (-)
2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (-)
3. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (+2)
4. Passengers (-1)
5. Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (-1)
   ---
6. The Jungle Book (-)
7. Captain America: Civil War (-)
8. A Monster Calls (-)
9. Star Trek: Beyond (-)
10. Deadpool (-)

Best Documentary Feature

1. 13th (-)
2. Gleason (-)
3. The Seasons in Quincy: Four Portraits of John Berger (-)
4. Equal Means Equal (-)
5. Newtown (-)
   ---
6. Three Days of Terror: The Charlie Hebdo Attacks (-)
7. Fire at Sea (-)
8. Miss Sharon Jones (-)
9. By Sidney Lumet (-)
10. Lo and Behold, Reveries of the Connected World (-)

Best Foreign Language Film

1. The Salesman (Iran) (-)
2. Death in Sarajevo (Bosnia and Herzegovina) (-)
3. Elle (France) (-)
4. Sand Storm (Israel) (-)
5. Ma'Rosa (Phillippines) (-)
   ---
6. Julieta (Spain) (+1)
7. From Afar (Venezuela) (+1)
8. The Happiest Day in the Life of Olli Mäki (Finland) (+1)
9. Barakah Meets Barakah (Saudi Arabia) (+1)
10. Train Driver's Diary (Serbia) (NEW)

DROPPED
United States of Love (Poland) (-5)

2016 Contenders in Best Foreign Language Film

The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences has announced 85 countries have officially submitted pictures for consideration in the category of Best Foreign Language Film. They are:

Albania, “Chromium,” Bujar Alimani, director;

Algeria, “The Well,” Lotfi Bouchouchi, director;

Argentina, “The Distinguished Citizen,” Mariano Cohn, Gastón Duprat, directors;

Australia, “Tanna,” Bentley Dean, Martin Butler, directors;

Austria, “Stefan Zweig: Farewell to Europe,” Maria Schrader, director;

Bangladesh, “The Unnamed,” Tauquir Ahmed, director;

Belgium, “The Ardennes,” Robin Pront, director;

Bolivia, “Sealed Cargo,” Julia Vargas Weise, director;

Bosnia and Herzegovina, “Death in Sarajevo,” Danis Tanovic, director;

Brazil, “Little Secret,” David Schurmann, director;

Bulgaria, “Losers,” Ivaylo Hristov, director;

Cambodia, “Before the Fall,” Ian White, director;

Canada, “It’s Only the End of the World,” Xavier Dolan, director;

Chile, “Neruda,” Pablo Larraín, director;

China, “Xuan Zang,” Huo Jianqi, director;

Colombia, “Alias Maria,” José Luis Rugeles, director;

Costa Rica, “About Us,” Hernán Jiménez, director;

Croatia, “On the Other Side,” Zrinko Ogresta, director;

Cuba, “The Companion,” Pavel Giroud, director;

Czech Republic, “Lost in Munich,” Petr Zelenka, director;

Denmark, “Land of Mine,” Martin Zandvliet, director;

Dominican Republic, “Sugar Fields,” Fernando Báez, director;

Ecuador, “Such Is Life in the Tropics,” Sebastián Cordero, director;

Egypt, “Clash,” Mohamed Diab, director;

Estonia, “Mother,” Kadri Kõusaar, director;

Finland, “The Happiest Day in the Life of Olli Mäki,” Juho Kuosmanen, director;

France, “Elle,” Paul Verhoeven, director;

Georgia, “House of Others,” Rusudan Glurjidze, director;

Germany, “Toni Erdmann,” Maren Ade, director;

Greece, “Chevalier,” Athina Rachel Tsangari, director;

Hong Kong, “Port of Call,” Philip Yung, director;

Hungary, “Kills on Wheels,” Attila Till, director;

Iceland, “Sparrows,” Rúnar Rúnarsson, director;

India, “Interrogation,” Vetri Maaran, director;

Indonesia, “Letters from Prague,” Angga Dwimas Sasongko, director;

Iran, “The Salesman,” Asghar Farhadi, director;

Iraq, “El Clásico,” Halkawt Mustafa, director;

Israel, “Sand Storm,” Elite Zexer, director;

Italy, “Fire at Sea,” Gianfranco Rosi, director;

Japan, “Nagasaki: Memories of My Son,” Yoji Yamada, director;

Jordan, “3000 Nights,” Mai Masri, director;

Kazakhstan, “Amanat,” Satybaldy Narymbetov, director;

Kosovo, “Home Sweet Home,” Faton Bajraktari, director;

Kyrgyzstan, “A Father’s Will,” Bakyt Mukul, Dastan Zhapar Uulu, directors;

Latvia, “Dawn,” Laila Pakalnina, director;

Lebanon, “Very Big Shot,” Mir-Jean Bou Chaaya, director;

Lithuania, “Seneca’s Day,” Kristijonas Vildziunas, director;

Luxembourg, “Voices from Chernobyl,” Pol Cruchten, director;

Macedonia, “The Liberation of Skopje,” Rade Šerbedžija, Danilo Šerbedžija, directors;

Malaysia, “Beautiful Pain,” Tunku Mona Riza, director;

Mexico, “Desierto,” Jonás Cuarón, director;

Montenegro, “The Black Pin,” Ivan Marinović, director;

Morocco, “A Mile in My Shoes,” Said Khallaf, director;

Nepal, “The Black Hen,” Min Bahadur Bham, director;

Netherlands, “Tonio,” Paula van der Oest, director;

New Zealand, “A Flickering Truth,” Pietra Brettkelly, director;

Norway, “The King’s Choice,” Erik Poppe, director;

Pakistan, “Mah-e-Mir,” Anjum Shahzad, director;

Palestine, “The Idol,” Hany Abu-Assad, director;

Panama, “Salsipuedes,” Ricardo Aguilar Navarro, Manolito Rodríguez, directors;

Peru, “Videophilia (and Other Viral Syndromes),” Juan Daniel F. Molero, director;

Philippines, “Ma’ Rosa,” Brillante Ma Mendoza, director;

Poland, “Afterimage,” Andrzej Wajda, director;

Portugal, “Letters from War,” Ivo M. Ferreira, director;

Romania, “Sieranevada,” Cristi Puiu, director;

Russia, “Paradise,” Andrei Konchalovsky, director;

Saudi Arabia, “Barakah Meets Barakah,” Mahmoud Sabbagh, director;

Serbia, “Train Driver’s Diary,” Milos Radovic, director;

Singapore, “Apprentice,” Boo Junfeng, director;

Slovakia, “Eva Nová,” Marko Skop, director;

Slovenia, “Houston, We Have a Problem!” Žiga Virc, director;

South Africa, “Call Me Thief,” Daryne Joshua, director;

South Korea, “The Age of Shadows,” Kim Jee-woon, director;

Spain, “Julieta,” Pedro Almodóvar, director;

Sweden, “A Man Called Ove,” Hannes Holm, director;

Switzerland, “My Life as a Zucchini,” Claude Barras, director;

Taiwan, “Hang in There, Kids!” Laha Mebow, director;

Thailand, “Karma,” Kanittha Kwunyoo, director;

Turkey, “Cold of Kalandar,” Mustafa Kara, director;

Ukraine, “Ukrainian Sheriffs,” Roman Bondarchuk, director;

United Kingdom, “Under the Shadow,” Babak Anvari, director;

Uruguay, “Breadcrumbs,” Manane Rodríguez, director;

Venezuela, “From Afar,” Lorenzo Vigas, director;

Vietnam, “Yellow Flowers on the Green Grass,” Victor Vu, director;

Yemen, “I Am Nojoom, Age 10 and Divorced,” Khadija Al-Salami, director.

2016 Oscar Nomination Predictions (September)

With my Best Original Song project behind me, I am (at last!) ready to squarely focus on this year's Oscar horse race. (That is, in addition to my usual movie reviews and one small, spooky October project that I'll reveal more info on in the coming days.)

The 2016 Oscar race has already, to put it mildly, proven an exciting and fascinating one. It's no surprise the likes of La La Land and Manchester by the Sea were whole-heartedly embraced on the festival scene but I for one did not expect such raves for Jackie or even Nocturnal Animals. A number of potential Oscar contenders have already garnered domestic releases - among them, Sully, Hell or High Water, The Jungle Book and Florence Foster Jenkins - and we'll see if they can hang on amidst the onslaught of Oscar-bait about to flood the big screens over the coming months.

There remain many unanswered questions.

Will, for instance, Martin Scorsese's Silence actually see the light of day? (At this point, I am going to presume Paramount gets the film out on time and predict it in a number of categories...but I suspect it's a real coin flip.)

Then, there's Fences - will it prove a threat in not only Lead Actor and Lead Actress but also Picture and Director, or could it go the way of middling stage-to-screen adaptations like The History Boys and Proof? Likewise, is Billy Lynn another Ang Lee winner or have we perhaps been overestimating the picture all along? These are two potential-juggernauts but, unlike La La Land and Manchester by the Sea, we really haven't a clue yet how strong the pictures are. Same goes for Rules Don't Apply, Passengers and Allied.

Of course, there's also The Birth of a Nation. Has all of the controversy surrounding Nate Parker's college rape trial left the picture dead in the water, or can Parker and Fox Searchlight still make a success out of it? For now, I remain skeptical but anything is possible in what no doubt will be a true roller coaster ride of an awards season.

With that said, here are my first full Oscar predictions of the 2016 season, ranked from most to least likely to garner a nomination. I'll be updating them once a month from here on out. Of course feel free to comment and offer up your own thoughts and predictions!

Best Picture

1. La La Land
2. Manchester by the Sea
3. Fences
4. Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
5. Jackie
6. Loving
7. Silence
8. Arrival
9. Hidden Figures
   ---
10. Allied
11. Lion
12. Nocturnal Animals
13. Rules Don't Apply
14. The Birth of a Nation
15. Moonlight

Best Director

1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land
2. Ang Lee, Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
3. Denzel Washington, Fences
4. Martin Scorsese, Silence
5. Denis Villanueve, Arrival
   ---
6. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
7. Jeff Nichols, Loving
8. Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals
9. Warren Beatty, Rules Don't Apply
10. Pablo Larrain, Jackie

Best Lead Actor

1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
2. Denzel Washington, Fences
3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land
4. Joel Edgerton, Loving
5. Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
   ---
6. Tom Hanks, Sully
7. Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals
8. Michael Keaton, The Founder
9. Andrew Garfield, Silence (Hacksaw Ridge if Silence not released)
10. Dev Patel, Lion

Best Lead Actress

1. Emma Stone, La La Land
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie
3. Viola Davis, Fences
4. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
5. Ruth Negga, Loving
   ---
6. Amy Adams, Arrival
7. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures
8. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women
9. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane
10. Isabelle Huppert, Elle

Best Supporting Actor

1. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
2. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
3. Warren Beatty, Rules Don't Apply
4. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
5. Liam Neeson, Silence
   ---
6. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
7. Peter Sarsgaard, Jackie
8. Steve Martin, Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
9. Stephen Henderson, Fences
10. Mykelti Williamson, Fences

Best Supporting Actress

1. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight
3. Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
4. Nicole Kidman, Lion
5. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
   ---
6. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women
7. Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls
8. Annette Bening, Rules Don't Apply
9. Elle Fanning, 20th Century Women
10. Laura Linney, Nocturnal Animals

Best Original Screenplay

1. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
2. Jeff Nichols, Loving
3. Damien Chazelle, La La Land
4. Noah Oppenheim, Jackie
5. Jared Bush, Byron Howard, Phil Johnston, Jennifer Lee, Rich Moore, Jim Reardon and Josie Trinidad, Zootopia
   ---
6. Ron Clements and John Musker, Moana
7. Barry Jenkins and Tarell McCraney, Moonlight
8. Warren Beatty, Rules Don't Apply
9. Steven Knight, Allied
10. Asghar Farhadi, The Salesman

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. August Wilson, Fences
2. Jean-Christophe Castelli, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
3. Jay Cocks, Silence
4. Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals
5. Allison Schroeder, Hidden Figures
   ---
6. Luke Davies, Lion
7. Eric Heisserer, Arrival
8. Whit Stillman, Love & Friendship
9. David Birke, Elle
10. Justin Marks, The Jungle Book

Best Animated Feature

1. Zootopia
2. Moana
3. Sing
4. The Red Turtle
5. Finding Dory
   ---
6. Kubo and the Two Strings
7. Sausage Party
8. The Secret Life of Pets
9. April and the Extraordinary World
10. Miss Hokusai

Best Cinematography

1. Linus Sandgren, La La Land
2. John Toll, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
3. Bradford Young, Arrival
4. Rodrigo Prieto, Silence
5. Seamus McGarvey, Nocturnal Animals
   ---
6. Bill Pope, The Jungle Book
7. Charlotte Bruus Christiansen, Fences
8. Elliot Davis, The Birth of a Nation
9. Greig Fraser, Lion
10. Don Burgess, Allied

Best Costume Design

1. Mary Zophres, La La Land
2. Joanna Johnston, Allied
3. Albert Wolsky, Rules Don't Apply
4. Eimer Ni Mhaoldomhnaigh, Love & Friendship
5. Consolata Boyle, Florence Foster Jenkins
   ---
6. Madeline Fontaine, Jackie
7. Sandy Powell, Silence
8. Sharen Davis, Fences
9. Francine Jamison-Tanchuck, The Birth of a Nation
10. Colleen Atwood, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Best Film Editing

1. Tom Cross, La La Land
2. Thelma Schoonmaker, Silence
3. Tim Squyre, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
4. Joe Walker, Arrival
5. Hughes Winborne, Fences
   ---
6. Joan Sobel, Nocturnal Animals
7. Jennifer Lame, Manchester by the Sea
8. Steven Rosenblum, The Birth of a Nation
9. Joi McMillon and Nat Sanders, Moonlight
10. Jeremiah O’Driscoll, Allied

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

1. Florence Foster Jenkins
2. Rules Don't Apply
3. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
   ---
4. Love & Friendship
5. Hidden Figures
6. La La Land
7. Star Trek: Beyond
8. Jackie
9. Hail, Caesar!
10. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Best Original Score

1. Opetaia Foa’i, Mark Mancina and Lin-Manuel Miranda, Moana
2. Michael Giacchino, Zootopia
3. Johann Johansson, Arrival
4. Jeff and Mychael Danna, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
5. Justin Hurwitz, La La Land
   ---
6. Howard Shore, Silence
7. Mica Levi, Jackie
8. Thomas Newman, Finding Dory
9. Alexandre Desplat, Florence Foster Jenkins
10. Henry Jackman, The Birth of a Nation

Best Original Song

1. "City of Stars," La La Land
2. "We Know the Way," Moana
3. "Audition," La La Land
4. "How Far I'll Go," Moana
5. "Go Now," Sing Street
   ---
6. "Victory," Hidden Figures
7. "The Great Beyond, Sausage Party
8. "Can't Stop the Feeling," Trolls
9. "Try Everything," Zootopia
10. "Drive It Like You Stole It," Sing Street

Best Production Design

1. David Wasco, La La Land
2. Jeannine Oppewall, Rules Don't Apply
3. Dante Ferretti, Silence
4. Gary Freeman, Allied
5. David Gropman, Fences
   ---
6. Stuart Craig, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
7. Anna Rackard, Love & Friendship
8. Geoffrey Kirkland, The Birth of a Nation
9. Jean Rabasse, Jackie
10. Mark Friedberg, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

Best Sound Editing

1. La La Land
2. Arrival
3. Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
4. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
5. Silence
   ---
6. Moana
7. Allied
8. Passengers
9. Deepwater Horizon
10. Captain America: Civil War

Best Sound Mixing

1. La La Land
2. Arrival
3. Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
4. Silence
5. Moana
   ---
6. Allied
7. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
8. Passengers
9. Zootopia
10. Deepwater Horizon

Best Visual Effects

1. Arrival
2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
3. Passengers
4. Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
5. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
   ---
6. The Jungle Book
7. Captain America: Civil War
8. A Monster Calls
9. Star Trek: Beyond
10. Deadpool

Best Documentary Feature

1. The 13th
2. Gleason
3. The Seasons in Quincy: Four Portraits of John Berger
4. Equal Means Equal
5. Newtown
   ---
6. Three Days of Terror: The Charlie Hebdo Attacks
7. Fire at Sea
8. Miss Sharon Jones
9. By Sidney Lumet
10. Lo and Behold, Reveries of the Connected World

Best Foreign Language Film

1. The Salesman (Iran)
2. Death in Sarajevo (Bosnia)
3. Elle (France)
4. Sand Storm (Israel)
5. Ma'Rosa (Phillippines)
   ---
6. United States of Love (Poland)
7. Julieta (Spain)
8. From Afar (Venezuela)
9. The Happiest Day in the Life of Olli Mäki (Finland)
10. Barakah Meets Barakah (Saudi Arabia)