2019 Oscar Nomination Predictions (October)

The past month has not exactly produced much in the way of awards season game-changers.

Through the New York Film Festival, we finally scored a glimpse of Martin Scorsese’s The Irishman, which indeed appears poised for the lauds and Oscar lovin’ we suspected all along. Two contenders for Best Actor and Best Actress, Joker’s Joaquin Phoenix and Judy’s Renee Zellweger, saw their pictures score significant commercial success and more modest critical receptions. And Clint Eastwood has yet again snuck up on us with an 11 o’clock-hour release, this time in the form of Richard Jewell (which doesn’t look terribly fetching to me but then again, I’ll watch anything with the goddess that is Kathy Bates.)

…and isn’t that about it?

The uncertainty that last month lingered, with the exception of The Irishman, continues to hover over this Oscar race. Question marks remain around at least five contenders - 1917, Bombshell, Cats, Dark Waters and Little Women - all of which could be Best Picture nominees…or go absolutely nowhere. I would think 1917 is a sure bet for at least some affection in the tech fields, and Bombshell reeks of The Big Short and Vice, both of which the Academy ate up, but nothing is set in stone at this point.

With that said, here is my updated set of Oscar predictions for the month of October. In parentheses you’ll find how many slots a contender has moved up or down since my last rankings. In some (albeit not many) cases, I have dropped a film or performer entirely. I am still holding off on predictions in the shorts, ditto Best Original Song, but am taking my first stab at Best International Feature…

Best Picture

1. Marriage Story (-)

2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-)

3. The Irishman (-)

4. 1917 (-)

5. Ford v. Ferrari (+2)

6. Bombshell (+3)

7. Waves (-2)

8. The Farewell (-2)

9. Little Women (-1)
   —

10. The Two Popes (-)

11. The Report (+1)

12. Parasite (NEW)

13. Dolemite Is My Name (+1)

14. Dark Waters (-3)

15. Cats (-2)

DROPPED
Just Mercy (-1)

Best Director

1. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman (-)

2. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-)

3. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (-)

4. Sam Mendes, 1917 (-)

5. Pedro Almodovar, Pain and Glory (-)
   —

6. Joon-Ho Bong, Parasite (-)

7. Jay Roach, Bombshell (+2)

8. Greta Gerwig, Little Women (+2)

9. Trey Edward Schults, Waves (-2)

10. Lulu Wang, The Farewell (-2)

Best Actress

1. Renee Zellweger, Judy (-)

2. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (-)

3. Alfre Woodard, Clemency (+2)

4. Charlize Theron, Bombshell (-)

5. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women (-2)
   —

6. Awkwafina, The Farewell (-)

7. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet (-)

8. Lupita Nyong’o, Us (+1)

9. Helen Mirren, The Good Liar (-1)

10. Jodie Turner-Smith, Queen & Slim (-)

Best Actor

1. Adam Driver, Marriage Story (-)

2. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes (+1)

3. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name (+2)

4. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (-2)

5. Christian Bale, Ford v. Ferrari (-1)
   —

6. Robert De Niro, The Irishman (+1)

7. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (-1)

8. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (+1)

9. Ian McKellen, The Good Liar (+1)

10. Mark Ruffalo, Dark Waters (-2)

Best Supporting Actress

1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story (-)

2. Annette Bening, The Report (-)

3. Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-)

4. Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey (+6)

5. Jennifer Hudson, Cats (-1)
   —

6. Zhao Shuzhen, The Farewell (-)

7. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers (+1)

8. Julie Hagerty, Marriage Story (-1)

9. Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell (NEW)

10. Nicole Kidman, Bombshell (NEW)

DROPPED
Anna Paquin, The Irishman (-6)
Meryl Streep, Little Women (-2)

Best Supporting Actor

1. Al Pacino, The Irishman (+6)

2. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-1)

3. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes (-1)

4. Alan Alda, Marriage Story (-1)

5. John Lithgow, Bombshell (-1)
   —

6. Sterling K. Brown, Waves (-1)

7. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (+2)

8. Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy (-2)

9. Joe Pesci, The Irishman (NEW)

10. Ian McKellen, Cats (-)

DROPPED
Kelvin Harrison, Jr., Waves (-4)

Best Original Screenplay

1. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (-)

2. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-)

3. Pedro Almodovar, Pain and Glory (+2)

4. Joon-Ho Bong and Jin Won Han, Parasite (+2)

5. Trey Edward Schults, Waves (-2)
   —

6. Lulu Wang, The Farewell (-2)

7. Scott Z. Burns, The Report (-)

8. Scott Alexander and Larry Karaszewski, Dolemite Is My Name (+2)

9. Charles Randolph, Bombshell (-1)

10. Jez Butterworth, John-Henry Butterworth, Jason Keller and James Mangold, Ford v. Ferrari (-1)

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Steven Zaiillian, The Irishman (-)

2. Frank Cottrell-Boyce and Anthony McCarten, The Two Popes (+1)

3. Greta Gerwig, Little Women (-1)

4. Micah Fitzerman-Blue and Noah Harpster, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (+1)

5. Matthew Michael Carnahan and Mario Correa, Dark Waters (-1)
   —

6. Julian Fellowes, Downton Abbey (-)

7. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (+2)

8. Lorene Scafaria, Hustlers (NEW)

9. Destin Daniel Cretton and Andrew Lanham, Just Mercy (-3)

10. Jeffrey Hatcher, The Good Liar (-)

DROPPED
Todd Phillips and Scott Silver, Joker (-3)

Best Animated Feature

1. Toy Story 4 (-)

2. Frozen II (+1)

3. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (-1)

4. Missing Link (-)

5. Okko’s Inn (-)
   —

6. I Lost My Body (NEW)

7. Abominable (-1)

8. A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (-)

9. Funan (-)

10. The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part (-3)

DROPPED
The Secret Life of Pets 2 (-1)

Best Documentary Feature

1. Maiden (+1)

2. Apollo 11 (-1)

3. Aquarela (-)

4. One Child Nation (NEW)

5. Rolling Thunder Revue: A Bob Dylan Story (-)
   —

6. Amazing Grace (-)

7. Pavarotti (-)

8. Mike Wallace Is Here (-4)

9. Untouchable (-1)

10. Knock Down the House (-1)

DROPPED
Ask Dr. Ruth (-1)

Best International Feature

1. Pain and Glory (Spain)

2. Parasite (South Korea)

3. Our Mothers (Belgium)

4. Honeyland (Macedonia)

5. Queen of Hearts (Denmark)
   —

6. The Painted Bird (Czech Republic)

7. The Delegation (Albania)

8. Les Misérables (France)

9. Heroic Losers (Argentina)

10. Monos (Colombia)

Best Cinematography

1. Rodrigo Prieto, The Irishman (+1)

2. Robert Richardson, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (+1)

3. Roger Deakins, 1917 (-2)

4. Phedon Papamichael, Ford v. Ferrari (-)

5. Drew Daniels, Waves (-)
   —

6. Jörg Widmer, A Hidden Life (+1)

7. Edward Lachmann, Dark Waters (+2)

8. Christopher Ross, Cats (-2)

9. Jarin Blaschke, The Lighthouse (NEW)

10. George Steel, The Aeronauts (-2)

DROPPED
Yorick Le Saux, Little Women (-1)

Best Costume Design

1. Arianne Phillips, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-)

2. Ruth E. Carter, Dolemite Is My Name (+2)

3. Christopher Peterson and Sandy Powell, The Irishman (-1)

4. Jany Temime, Judy (+2)

5. Jacqueline Durran, Little Women (-2)
   —

6. Paco Delgado, Cats (-1)

7. Anna Mary Scott Robbins, Downton Abbey (NEW)

8. Ellen Mirojnick, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil (-)

9. Jacqueline Durran, 1917 (-2)

10. Mayes C. Rubeo, Jojo Rabbit (-)

DROPPED
Julian Day, Rocketman (-2)

Best Film Editing

1. Thelma Schoonmaker, The Irishman (-)

2. Fred Raskin, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (+1)

3. Lee Smith, 1917 (+1)

4. Michael McCusker, Ford v. Ferrari (-2)

5. John Poll, Bombshell (-)
   —

6. Jennifer Lame, Marriage Story (+1)

7. Maryann Brandon and Stefan Grube, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (+1)

8. Trey Edward Shults and Isaac Hagy, Waves (-2)

9. Melanie Oliver, Cats (-)

10. Greg O’Bryant, The Report (-)

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

1. Jeremy Woodhead, Judy (+1)

2. Vivian Baker, Jaime Leigh McIntosh, Anne Morgan and Cristina Waltz, Bombshell (-1)

3. Uxue Laguardia and Niamh O’Loan, Cats (-)

4. Belinda Anderson and Angie Wells, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (+1)

5. Debra Denson, Carla Farmer, Stacey Morris and Vera Steimberg Moder, Dolemite Is My Name (-1)
   —

6. Sacha Carter, Paul Gooch and David White, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil (+1)

7. Kay Georgiou and Nicki Ledermann, Joker (-1)

8. Janine Rath and Heba Thorisdottir, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-)

9. Fríða Aradóttir and Jennifer Bell, Little Women (-)

10. Lizzie Georglou and Elizabeth Yianni-Georgiou, Rocketman (-)

Best Original Score

1. John Williams, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (-)

2. Thomas Newman, 1917 (-)

3. Marco Beltrami, Ford v. Ferrari (+1)

4. Randy Newman, Marriage Story (+2)

5. Alexandre Desplat, Little Women (-2)
   —

6. Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, Waves (-1)

7. Scott Bomar, Dolemite Is My Name (-)

8. Nate Heller, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (-)

9. Carter Burwell, The Good Liar (-)

10. Danny Elfman, Dumbo (-)

Best Production Design

1. Nancy Haigh and Barbara Ling, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-)

2. Dennis Gassner, 1917 (-)

3. Regina Graves and Bob Shaw, The Irishman (-)

4. Rick Carter and Kevin Jenkins, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (+1)

5. Eve Stewart, Cats (-1)
   —

6. David Hindle and Christian Huband, The Aeronauts (-)

7. Claire Kaufman, Little Women (-)

8. Clay A. Griffith and Lisa K. Sessions, Dolemite Is My Name (+2)

9. Dominic Capon and Patrick Tatopoulos, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil (-1)

10. François Audouy and Peter Lando, Ford v. Ferrari (-1)

Best Sound Editing

1. David Acord and Matthew Wood, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (-)

2. The team from 1917 (+1)

3. Shannon Mills and Samson Neslund, Avengers: Endgame (+1)

4. Eric A. Norris and Donald Sylvester, Ford v. Ferrari (-2)

5. Harry Cohen and Leo Marcil, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-)
   —

6. The team from Cats (-)

7. Philip Stockton, The Irishman (+2)

8. Saoirse Christopherson and Lee Walpole, The Aeronauts (-1)

9. Teresa Eckton, J.R. Grubbs, Kimberly Patrick and Dee Selby, Captain Marvel (-1)

10. Craig Henighan, Terminator: Dark Fate (-)

Best Sound Mixing

1. Ben Burtt and Andy Nelson, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (-)

2. Scott Millan, 1917 (+1)

3. Michael Minkler, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (+1)

4. Richard Bullock, Jr., Paul Massey and Steven Morrow, Ford v. Ferrari (-2)

5. Simon Hayes, Cats (-)
   —

6. Tom Johnson, Juan Peralta and Douglas Parker, Avengers: Endgame (-)

7. Tod A. Maitland, The Irishman (+1)

8. Stuart Hilliker and Lee Walpole, The Aeronauts (-1)

9. Paul Cotterell and Johnathan Rush, Judy (-)

10. John Hayes, Rocketman (-)

Best Visual Effects

1. Roger Guyett and Dominic Tuohy, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (-)

2. Dan DeLeeuw, Russell Earl, Kelly Port and Daniel Sudick, Avengers: Endgame (-)

3. Pablo Helman and Jiwoong Kim, The Irishman (-)

4. The team from Cats (-)

5. Romain Arnoux, Louis Morin and Jean-François Ferland, The Aeronauts (-)
   —

6. Robert Legato, Elliot Newman and Adam Valdez, The Lion King (+1)

7. The team from 1917 (-)

8. Daniel Sudick and Christopher Townsend, Captain Marvel (-2)

9. The team from Terminator: Dark Fate (-)

10. Mark Hawker, Bryan Hirota and Bill Westenhofer, Gemini Man (-)

2018 Oscar Winners

Glenn, Richard and Bradley, you wuz robbed.

BEST PICTURE
Green Book

BEST DIRECTOR
Alfonso Cuarón, Roma

BEST ACTRESS
Olivia Colman, The Favourite

BEST ACTOR
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali, Green Book

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Green Book

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
BlacKkKlansman

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Black Panther

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Shallow,” A Star Is Born

BEST FILM EDITING
Bohemian Rhapsody

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Roma (Mexico)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Free Solo

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Roma

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Black Panther

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
First Man

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Black Panther

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Vice

BEST SOUND MIXING
Bohemian Rhapsody

BEST SOUND EDITING
Bohemian Rhapsody

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
Period. End of Sentence

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
Bao

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
Skin

FINAL 2018 Oscar Winner Predictions

At last!

It feels like an eternity ago that I was predicting the likes of Beautiful Boy, The Front Runner and Peterloo for Oscar nominations. Now, here we are, with that trio long out of the picture and Roma riding high as Black Panther and Green Book lurk around the corner, hoping to score the big upset for the top prize.

There is no shortage of uncertainty lingering over this year’s races. While a handful of contenders, including Alfonso Cuaron in Best Director and “Shallow” in Best Original Song (perhaps the lone prize A Star Is Born goes home with), seem like the surest of bets, there are far more toss-ups at hand than runaway victories. Even Mahershala Ali and Rami Malek, who have all but steamrolled the major precursors of late, shouldn’t feel entirely secure.

Films like Black Panther, BlackKklansman and The Favourite, all entering the big night with a plethora of nominations, could find themselves basking in Oscar glory or shut out altogether. Should The Favourite fall short in all 10 of its bids (which I am predicting to be the case), it will join the unfortunate likes of American Hustle, Gangs of New York and True Grit, all of which conked out 0-for-10 at their respective ceremonies.

As for the technical categories, they could go in so many different directions, with plausible cases to even be made for First Man and Mary Poppins Returns, both of which spent much of the awards season stumbling.

With that said, here's my hunch on how the evening goes down…

BEST PICTURE

1. Roma

2. Green Book

3. Black Panther

4. BlacKkKlansman

5. Bohemian Rhapsody

6. A Star Is Born

7. The Favourite

8. Vice

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Alfonso Cuarón, Roma

2. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman

3. Pawel Pawlikowski, Cold War

4. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite

5. Adam McKay, Vice

BEST ACTRESS

1. Glenn Close, The Wife

2. Olivia Colman, The Favourite

3. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born

4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

5. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma

BEST ACTOR

1. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

2. Christian Bale, Vice

3. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born

4. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

5. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

2. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

3. Amy Adams, Vice

4. Marina de Tavira, Roma

5. Emma Stone, The Favourite

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book

2. Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born

3. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

4. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman

5. Sam Rockwell, Vice

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Roma

2. Green Book

3. The Favourite

4. First Reformed

5. Vice

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. BlacKkKlansman

2. If Beale Street Could Talk

3. Can You Ever Forgive Me?

4. A Star Is Born

5. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. Black Panther

2. BlacKkKlansman

3. If Beale Street Could Talk

4. Mary Poppins Returns

5. Isle of Dogs

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. “Shallow,” A Star Is Born

2. “All the Stars,” Black Panther

3. “I’ll Fight,” RBG

4. “The Place Where Lost Things Go,” Mary Poppins Returns

5. “When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings,” The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

BEST FILM EDITING

1. BlacKkKlansman

2. Bohemian Rhapsody

3. Vice

4. The Favourite

5. Green Book

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

1. Roma (Mexico)

2. Cold War (Poland)

3. Never Look Away (Germany)

4. Capernaum (Lebanon)

5. Shoplifters (Japan)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

2. Isle of Dogs

3. Incredibles 2

4. Mirai

5. Ralph Breaks the Internet

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. RBG

2. Free Solo

3. Minding the Gap

4. Hale County This Morning, This Evening

5. Of Fathers and Sons

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. Roma

2. Cold War

3. The Favourite

4. Never Look Away

5. A Star Is Born

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Black Panther

2. The Favourite

3. Roma

4. Mary Poppins Returns

5. First Man

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. First Man

2. Avengers: Infinity War

3. Ready Player One

4. Solo: A Star Wars Story

5. Christopher Robin

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. Black Panther

2. The Favourite

3. Mary Poppins Returns

4. Mary Queen of Scots

5. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

1. Vice

2. Mary Queen of Scots

3. Border

BEST SOUND MIXING

1. Bohemian Rhapsody

2. First Man

3. Black Panther

4. Roma

5. A Star Is Born

BEST SOUND EDITING

1. Black Panther

2. First Man

3. Bohemian Rhapsody

4. Roma

5. A Quiet Place

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

1. A Night at the Garden

2. Lifeboat

3. Black Sheep

4. End Game

5. Period. End of Sentence

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM

1. Animal Behavior

2. Weekends

3. Bao

4. One Small Step

5. Late Afternoon

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM

1. Detainment

2. Mother

3. Fauve

4. Marguerite

5. Skin

2018 Oscar Nominations

Congratulations to this year’s Oscar nominees!

BEST PICTURE

Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
A Star Is Born
Vice

BEST DIRECTOR

Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Adam McKay, Vice
Pawel Pawlikowski, Cold War

BEST ACTRESS

Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Glenn Close, The Wife
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

BEST ACTOR

Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Amy Adams, Vice
Marina de Tavira, Roma
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Rockwell, Vice

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The Favourite
First Reformed
Green Book
Roma
Vice

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
BlacKkKlansman
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star Is Born

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
If Beale Street Could Talk
Isle of Dogs
Mary Poppins Returns

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

“All the Stars,” Black Panther
“I’ll Fight,” RBG
“The Place Where Lost Things Go,” Mary Poppins Returns
“Shallow,” A Star Is Born
“When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings,” The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

BEST FILM EDITING

BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Vice

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Capernaum (Lebanon)
Cold War (Poland)
Never Look Away (Germany)
Roma (Mexico)
Shoplifters (Japan)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Free Solo
Hale County This Morning, This Evening
Minding the Gap
Of Fathers and Sons
RBG

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Cold War
The Favourite
Never Look Away
Roma
A Star Is Born

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Black Panther
The Favourite
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns
Roma

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Avengers: Infinity War
Christopher Robin
First Man
Ready Player One
Solo: A Star Wars Story

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Black Panther
The Favourite
Mary Poppins Returns
Mary Queen of Scots

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Border
Mary Queen of Scots
Vice

BEST SOUND MIXING

Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
Roma
A Star Is Born

BEST SOUND EDITING

Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
A Quiet Place
Roma

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

Black Sheep
End Game 
Lifeboat
A Night at the Garden
Period. End of Sentence

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM

Animal Behavior 
Bao
Late Afternoon
One Small Step
Weekends

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM

Detainment
Fauve
Marguerite
Mother
Skin

FINAL 2018 Oscar Nomination Predictions

Here we go - FINAL Oscar nomination predictions!

Since my last thoughts in December, a ton has gone down in the awards season - Golden Globes were handed out, as were BAFTA and key guild nominations. Next week, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will offer its two cents on the finest of 2018 cinema and, not long after that, BAFTA and the guilds will announce their winners. As a reminder, this year's Oscar ceremony falls on February 24.

So, with that said, here is my final hunch. In parentheses you will see how many slots a contender has moved up or down since my December rankings. In some cases, I have eliminated a film or performer entirely.

Enjoy and, as always, feel free to comment with your own thoughts as well.

Best Picture

1. Roma (-)

2. A Star Is Born (-)

3. The Favourite (+2)

4. BlacKkKlansman (-1)

5. Vice (+3)

6. Green Book (-2)

7. Bohemian Rhapsody (+5)

8. Black Panther (-1)

9. First Man (-)
   —

10. If Beale Street Could Talk (-4)

11. Crazy Rich Asians (-)

12. Cold War (NEW)

13. Mary Poppins Returns (-3)

14. A Quiet Place (-)

15. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (-2)

DROPPED
Eighth Grade (-1)

Best Director

1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (-)

2. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (+1)

3. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (-1)

4. Adam McKay, Vice (+3)

5. Damien Chazelle, First Man (-)
   —

6. Peter Farrelly, Green Book (-)

7. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (-2)

8. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (-)

9. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (-)

10. Paweł Pawlikowski, Cold War (NEW)

DROPPED
Debra Granik, Leave No Trace (-1)

Best Leading Actor

1. Christian Bale, Vice (+1)

2. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (+1)

3. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (-2)

4. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (-)

5. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity's Gate (+1)
   —

6. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman (+1)

7. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed (-2)

8. Ryan Gosling, First Man (+1)

9. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (-1)

10. Stephan James, If Beale Street Could Talk (NEW)

DROPPED
Robert Redford, The Old Man and the Gun (-1)

Best Leading Actress

1. Glenn Close, The Wife (+2)

2. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (-1)

3. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (-1)

4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (-)

5. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma (+5)
   —

6. Viola Davis, Widows (NEW)

7. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns (-2)

8. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (-2)

9. Toni Collette, Hereditary (-2)

10. Rosamund Pike, A Private War (-1)

DROPPED
Regina Hall, Support the Girls (-3)

Best Supporting Actor

1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (-)

2. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (-)

3. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (-)

4. Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born (-)

5. Sam Rockwell, Vice (-)
   —

6. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (-)

7. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther (-)

8. Steven Yeun, Burning (-)

9. Brian Tyree Henry, If Beale Street Could Talk (NEW)

10. John Krasinski, A Quiet Place (NEW)

DROPPED
Hugh Grant, Paddington 2 (-2)
Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give (-1)

Best Supporting Actress

1. Emma Stone, The Favourite (-)

2. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (-)

3. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (+1)

4. Amy Adams, Vice (-1)

5. Claire Foy, First Man (+2)
   —

6. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (-1)

7. Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place (+1)

8. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots (-2)

9. Linda Cardellini, Green Book (NEW)

10. Thomasin Harcourt McKenzie, Leave No Trace (-1)

DROPPED
Marina De Tavira, Roma (-1)

Best Original Screenplay

1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (-)

2. Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara, The Favourite (-)

3. Adam McKay, Vice (+1)

4. Brian Hayes Currie, Peter Farrelly and Nick Vallelonga, Green Book (-1)

5. Paweł Pawlikowski, Janusz Głowacki and Piotr Borkowsk, Cold War (NEW)
   —

6. Bo Burnham, Eighth Grade (-1)

7. Anthony McCarten and Peter Morgan, Bohemian Rhapsody (NEW)

8. Paul Schrader, First Reformed (-2)

9. Scott Beck, John Krasinski and Bryan Woods, A Quiet Place (-1)

10. Chloe Zhao, The Rider (-)

DROPPED
Joel and Ethan Coen, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (-3)
Jihad Hojeily, Michelle Keserwany, Nadine Labaki and Khaled Mouzanar, Capernaum (-2)

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (+1)

2. Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters, Irene Mecchi, Stephen J. Rivele, Eric Roth and Christopher Wilkinson, A Star Is Born (+1)

3. Spike Lee, David Rabinowitz, Charlie Wachtel and Kevin Willmott, BlacKkKlansman (-2)

4. Jon Robert Cole and Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (+3)

5. Peter Chiarelli and Adele Lim, Crazy Rich Asians (+1)
   —

6. Peter Fellows, Armando Iannucci, Ian Martin, Fabien Nury and David Schneider, The Death of Stalin (NEW)

7. Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (-3)

8. Debra Granik and Anne Rosellini, Leave No Trace (-3)

9. Josh Singer, First Man (-1)

10. Jane Anderson, The Wife (NEW)

DROPPED
Audrey Wells, The Hate U Give (-2)
Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased (-1)

Best Animated Feature

1. Isle of Dogs (+2)

2. Spider-Man: Into the Spider Verse (-)

3. Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck-It-Ralph 2 (-)

4. Incredibles 2 (-3)

5. Mirai (-)
   —

6. Smallfoot (+3)

7. Ruben Brandt, Collector (-)

8. Early Man (NEW)

9. Night Is Short, Walk on Girl (-1)

10. Lu Over the Wall (-4)

DROPPED
Fireworks (-1)

Best Documentary Feature

1. RBG (-)

2. Free Solo (-)

3. Minding the Gap (-)

4. Won’t You Be My Neighbor? (-)

5. Shirkers (NEW)
   —

6. Three Identical Strangers (-1)

7. The Silence of Others (NEW)

8. On Her Shoulders (NEW)

9. The Distant Barking of Dogs (NEW)

10. Dark Money (NEW)

DROPPED
The Oslo Diaries (-5)
King in the Wilderness (-4)
The Price of Everything (-3)
They’ll Love Me When I’m Dead (-2)
Maria By Callas: In Her Own Words (-1)

Best Foreign Language Film

1. Roma (Mexico) (-)

2. Cold War (Poland) (+3)

3. Never Look Away (Germany) (+1)

4. Capernaum (Lebanon) (-2)

5. Shoplifters (Japan) (-2)
   —

6. Birds of Passage (Colombia) (NEW)

7. Burning (South Korea) (-)

8. The Guilty (Denmark) (NEW)

9. Ayka (Kazakhstan) (NEW)

DROPPED
Border (Sweden) (-5)
Girl (Belgium) (-4)
Sunset (Hungary) (-3)
Ghost Hunting (Palestine) (-1)

Best Cinematography

1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (-)

2. Linus Sandgren, First Man (+3)

3. Matthew Libatique, A Star Is Born (-1)

4. Rachel Morrison, Black Panther (-)

5. Caleb Deschanel, Never Look Away (+4)
   —

6. Łukasz Żal, Cold War (NEW)

7. Robbie Ryan, The Favourite (-4)

8. James Laxton, If Beale Street Could Talk (-2)

9. Dion Beebe, Mary Poppins Returns (-2)

10. Bruno Delbonnel, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (-2)

DROPPED
Christopher Aoun, Capernaum (-1)

Best Costume Design

1. Sandy Powell, The Favourite (-)

2. Ruth E. Carter, Black Panther (+1)

3. Sandy Powell, Mary Poppins Returns (-1)

4. Colleen Atwood, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (-)

5. Mary Vogt, Crazy Rich Asians (+2)
   —

6. Julian Day, Bohemian Rhapsody (+1)

7. Alexandra Byrne, Mary Queen of Scots (-2)

8. Andrea Flesch, Colette (-2)

9. Mary Zophres, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (+1)

10. Caroline Eselin, If Beale Street Could Talk (-1)

Best Film Editing

1. Alfonso Cuaron and Adam Gough, Roma (-)

2. Tom Cross, First Man (+1)

3. Jay Cassidy, A Star Is Born (-1)

4. Debbie Berman and Michael P. Shawver, Black Panther (-)

5. Hank Corwin, Vice (+5)
   —

6. Barry Alexander Brown, BlacKkKlansman (-1)

7. John Ottman, Bohemian Rhapsody (NEW)

8. Sam Sneade, The Favourite (+1)

9. Patrick J. Don Vito, Green Book (-3)

10. Wyatt Smith, Mary Poppins Returns (-3)

DROPPED
Joi McMillon and Nat Sanders, If Beale Street Could Talk (-3)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Vice (-)

2. Black Panther (+2)

3. Bohemian Rhapsody (NEW)
   —

4. Stan and Ollie (+1)

5. Mary Queen of Scots (-)

6. Border (NEW)

7. Suspiria (+1)

DROPPED
The Favourite (-9)
Mary Poppins Returns (-8)
Deadpool 2 (-4)
A Star Is Born (-2)
Colette (-1)

Best Original Score

1. Justin Hurwitz, First Man (-)

2. Alexandre Desplat, Isle of Dogs (+2)

3. Nicholas Britell, If Beale Street Could Talk (-)

4. Terence Blanchard, BlacKkKlansman (+1)

5. Carter Burwell, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (+1)
   —

6. Ludwig Goransson, Black Panther (+1)

7. Marc Shaiman and Scott Wittman, Mary Poppins Returns (-5)

8. Marco Beltrami, A Quiet Place (+1)

9. Nicholas Britell, Vice (NEW)

10. James Newton Howard, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (-)

DROPPED
Michael Giacchino, Incredibles 2 (-3)

Best Original Song

1. “Shallow,” A Star Is Born (-)

2. “All the Stars,” Black Panther (-)

3. “I’ll Fight,” RBG (+2)

4. “Trip a Little Light Fantastic,” Mary Poppins Returns (+4)

5. “Keep Reachin’,” Quincy (NEW)
   —

6. “The Place Where Lost Things Go,” Mary Poppins Returns (-3)

7. “Girl in the Movies,” Dumplin’ (+1)

8. “Revelation,” Boy Erased (-1)

9. “When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings,” The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (NEW)

10. “We Won’t Move,” The Hate U Give (NEW)

DROPPED
“Gravity,” Free Solo (-7)
“Requiem for a Private War,” A Private War (-5)
“Time for Change,” On the Basis of Sex (-1)

Best Production Design

1. Fiona Crombie and Alice Felton, The Favourite (-)

2. Hannah Beachler and Jay Hart, Black Panther (+2)

3. John Myrhe and Gordon Sim, Mary Poppins Returns (-)

4. Nathan Crowley and Kathy Lucas, First Man (NEW)

5. Paul Harrod and Adam Stockhausen, Isle of Dogs (+1)
   —

6. Gina Cromwell and James Merifield, Mary Queen of Scots (-2)

7. Stuart Craig and Anna Pinnock, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (-2)

8. Eugenio Caballero and Barbara Enriquez, Roma (NEW)

9. Mark Friedberg and Kris Moran, If Beale Street Could Talk (-2)

10. Jess Gonchor and Nancy Haigh, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (-)

DROPPED
Michael Carlin, Lisa Chugg and Nora Talmaier, Colette (-3)
Lisa Chung and Guy Hendrix Dyas, The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (-2)

Best Sound Editing

1. Ai-Ling Lee and Mildred Iatrou Morgan, First Man (+3)

2. Alan Robert Murray, A Star Is Born (-1)

3. Steve Boeddeker and Benjamin A. Burtt, Black Panther (-1)

4. John Warhurst, Bohemian Rhapsody (+3)

5. Erik Aadahl and Ethan Van Der Ryn, A Quiet Place (+1)
   —

6. James H. Mather, Mission: Impossible - Fallout (NEW)

7. Shannon Mills and Daniel Laurie, Avengers: Infinity War (NEW)

8. Eugene Gearty and Renee Tondelli, Mary Poppins Returns (-5)

9. Sergio Diaz and Skip Lievsay, Roma (-2)

10. Philip Stockman, BlacKkKlansman (-)

DROPPED
Richard Hymns and Gary Rydstrom, Ready Player One (-3)
Cora Elliott and Ren Klyce, Incredibles 2 (-2)

Best Sound Mixing

1. Steve Morrow, Tom Ozanich, Jason Ruder and Dean Zupancic, A Star Is Born (-)

2. Mary H. Ellis, Ai-Ling Lee, Frank A. Montano and Jon Taylor, First Man (+3)

3. Steve Boeddecker, Peter Devlin and Brandon Proctor, Black Panther (-1)

4. Jason Casali, Tim Cavagin and Paul Massey, Bohemian Rhapsody (-)

5. Simon Hayes, Micheal Keller and Mike Prestwood Smith, Mary Poppins Returns (-2)
   —

6. Michael Barosky and Brandon Proctor, A Quiet Place (-)

7. Jose Antonio Garcia, Craig Henighan and Skip Lievsay, Roma (-)

8. Christopher Munro, Mike Prestwood Smith and Gilbert Lake, Mission: Impossible - Fallout (NEW)

9. Tom Johnson, Juan Peralta and John Pritchett, Avengers: Infinity War (-)

10. Drew Kunin and Tom Fleischman, BlacKkKlansman (NEW)

DROPPED
Vince Caro, Nathan Nance and Michael Semanick, Incredibles 2 (-2)
Chris Munro, Andy Nelson and Gary Ruydstrom, Ready Player One (-1)

Best Visual Effects

1. First Man (+1)

2. Avengers: Infinity War (-1)

3. Black Panther (-2)

4. Mary Poppins Returns (-1)

5. Solo: A Star Wars Story (NEW)
   —

6. Ready Player One (-1)

7. Ant-Man and the Wasp (NEW)

8. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (NEW)

9. Welcome to Marwen (NEW)

10. Christopher Robin (NEW)

DROPPED
Isle of Dogs (-6)
Aquaman (-4)
A Quiet Place (-3)
Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (-2)
Incredibles 2 (-1)