2026 Oscar Nomination Predictions (October)

From most to least likely to earn a nomination:

Best Picture

1. The Odyssey

2. Wild Horse Nine

3. La bola negra

4. The Invite

5. Dune: Part Three

6. The Debut

7. Project Hail Mary

8. All of a Sudden

9. Fjord

10. Being Heumann
    —

11. I Play Rocky

12. Michael

13. Artificial

14. Behemoth!

15. Obsession

Best Director

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey

2. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, La bola negra

3. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, All of a Sudden

4. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine

5. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord
   —

6. Olivia Wilde, The Invite

7. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three

8. Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary

9. Paweł Pawlikowski, Fatherland

10. Lee Chang-dong, Possible Love

Best Actress

1. Julianne Moore, The Debut

2. Renate Reinsve, Fjord

3. Sandra Hüller, Rose

4. Virginie Efira, All of a Sudden

5. Olivia Wilde, The Invite
   —

6. Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann

7. Inde Navarrette, Obsession

8. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland

9. Carrie Coon, The Liberation

10. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night

Best Actor

1. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine

2. Matt Damon, The Odyssey

3. Andrew Scott, Elsinore

4. Sebastian Stan, Fjord

5. John Turturro, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York
   —

6. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary

7. Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!

8. Robert Pattinson, Primetime

9. Jaafar Jackson, Michael

10. Anthony Ippoliito, I Play Rocky

Best Supporting Actress

1. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey

2. Penélope Cruz, La bola negra

3. Penélope Cruz, The Invite

4. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey

5. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden
   —

6. Olivia Colman, Elsinore

7. Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary

8. Mariana di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine

9. Kate O’Flynn, Tender Loving Care

10. Glenn Close, La bola negra

Best Supporting Actor

1. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine

2. Edward Norton, The Invite

3. Andrew Garfield, Artificial

4. Paul Giamatti, The Debut

5. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey
   —

6. Colman Domingo, Michael

7. Robert Pattinson, The Odyssey

8. Guitarricadelafuente, La bola negra

9. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine

10. Guy Pearce, Ink

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey

2. Rashida Jones and Will McCormack, The Invite

3. Javier Ambrossi, Javier Calvo, Alberto Conejero, La bola negra

4. Ryusuke Hamaguchi and Léa Le Dimna, All of a Sudden

5. Rebekah Taussig and Sian Heder, Being Heumann
   —

6. James Graham, Ink

7. Drew Goddard, Project Hail Mary

8. Denis Villeneuve and Brian K. Vaughan, Dune: Part Three

9. Simon Liashenko and Andrey Zvyagintsev, Minotaur

10. Quentin Tarantino, The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Original Screenplay

1. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine

2. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord

3. Jesse Eisenberg, The Debut

4. Mike Leigh, Tender Loving Care

5. Stephen Beresford, Elsinore
   —

6. Lee Chang-dong and Oh Jung-mi, Possible Love

7. Simon Rich, Artificial

8. Peter Gamble, I Play Rocky

9. Tony Gilroy, Behemoth!

10. Curry Barker, Obsession

Best Casting

1. John Papsidera, The Odyssey

2. Sarah Halley Finn, Wild Horse Nine

3. Eva Leira and Yolanda Serrano, La bola negra

4. Douglas Aibel, The Debut

5. Coralie Amédéo, All of a Sudden
   —

6. Hannah Chocron Foldøy, Fjord

7. Rick Montgomery, I Play Rocky

8. Adam Caldwell and Bernard Telsey, Being Heumann

9. Kimberly Hardin and Victoria Thomas, Michael

10. Jessica Ronane, Artificial

Best Animated Feature

1. Toy Story 5

2. Ray Gunn

3. Iron Boy

4. Wildwood

5. Tangles
   —

6. Hoppers

7. In Waves

8. Hexed

9. Forgotten Island

10. Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom

Best Documentary Feature

1. Once Upon a Time in Harlem

2. Rehearsals for a Revolution

3. 14th

4. You Can See Everything

5. Nuisance Bear
   —

6. One in a Million

7. The History of Concrete

8. NAZA

9. American Doctor

10. Time and Water

Best International Feature Film

1. La bola negra

2. All of a Sudden

3. Fjord

4. Possible Love

5. Rose
   —

6. Fatherland

7. Minotaur

8. Woman Unknown

9. The Beloved

10. How to Divorce During the War

Best Cinematography

1. Hoyte van Hoytema, The Odyssey

2. Linus Sandgren, Dune: Part Three

3. Gris Jordana, La bola negra

4. Łukasz Żal, Fatherland

5. Jarin Blaschke, Werwulf
   —

6. Greig Fraser, Project Hail Mary

7. Ben Davis, Wild Horse Nine

8. Tudor Vladimir Panduru, Fjord

9. Janusz Kamiński, Disclosure Day

10. Gerald Kerkletz, Rose

Best Costume Design

1. Ellen Mirojnick, The Odyssey

2. Jacqueline West, Dune: Part Three

3. Ana López-Cobos, La bola negra

4. Linda Muir, Werwulf

5. Grace Snell, Sense and Sensibility
   —

6. Molly Rogers, The Devil Wears Prada 2

7. Marci Rodgers, Michael

8. Jacqueline Durran, Wuthering Heights

9. Bina Daigeler, The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping

10. Bina Daigeler, Mother Mary

Best Film Editing

1. Jennifer Lame, The Odyssey

2. Joe Walker, Dune: Part Three

3. Alberto Gutiérrez, La bola negra

4. Joel Negron, Project Hail Mary

5. Mikkel E.G. Nielsen, Wild Horse Nine
   —

6. Yorgos Mavropsaridis and Anthony Boys, The Invite

7. Robert Nassau, The Debut

8. John Gilroy, Behemoth!

9. Mircea Olteanu, Fjord

10. Adam Locke-Norton, You Can See Everything

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Werwulf

2. The Odyssey

3. Dune: Part Three

4. La bola negra

5. Clayface
   —

6. Digger

7. Michael

8. Wicker

9. Rose

10. The Bride!

Best Production Design

1. Ruth De Jong and Larry Dias, The Odyssey

2. Patrice Vermette and Shane Vieau, Dune: Part Three

3. Roger Bellés and Judit Ferrer, La bola negra

4. Craig Lathrop and Anna Pinnock, Werwulf

5. Charles Wood and John Bush, Project Hail Mary
   —

6. Danny Vermette, Trevor Johnston and Elliott Vion, Backrooms

7. Celia De La Hey and Francesca Balestra Di Mottola, Sense and Sensibility

8. Donald Graham Burt, The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth

9. Suzie Davies and Charlotte Dirickx, Wuthering Heights

10. Barbara Ling and Amy Wells, Michael

Best Original Score

1. Ludwig Göransson, The Odyssey

2. Hans Zimmer, Dune: Part Three

3. John Williams, Disclosure Day

4. Raül Refree, La bola negra

5. Daniel Pemberton, Project Hail Mary
   —

6. Carter Burwell, Wild Horse Nine

7. Emile Mosseri, The Debut

8. Robin Carolan, Werwulf

9. Dario Marianelli, Wildwood

10. James Newton Howard, Alan Silvestri, Brandon Roberts, Michael Abels, Emily Bear, Lukas Frank, Michael Giacchino, Henry Jackman and Nami Melumadm, Behemoth!

Best Original Song

1. “By Any Means,” By Any Means

2. “La Nieve,” La bola negra

3. “This City May Have Chewed Me Up (But It Hasn’t Spit Me Out),” The Debut

4. “When I’m Home,” The Odyssey

5. “Let Me Sell You a Dream,” Musk
   —

6. “How to Write a Song (Without You),” Power Ballad

7. “Chains of Love,” Wuthering Heights

8. “The Saddest Song,” Artificial

9. “I Knew It, I Knew You,” Toy Story 5

10. “Runway,” The Devil Wears Prada 2

Best Sound

1. The Odyssey

2. Dune: Part Three

3. Project Hail Mary

4. La bola negra

5. Behemoth!
   —

6. Werwulf

7. Godzilla Minus Zero

8. Michael

9. The Mosquito Bowl

10. Avengers: Doomsday

Best Visual Effects

1. The Odyssey

2. Dune: Part Three

3. Project Hail Mary

4. Godzilla Minus Zero

5. Avengers: Doomsday
   —

6. Whalefall

7. Wildwood

8. Werwulf

9. Spider-Man: Brand New Day

10. Clayface

Best Animated Short

TBD

Best Documentary Short

TBD

Best Live Action Short

TBD

FINAL 2025 Oscar Winner Predictions

At last!

With Oscar night right around the corner, these half dozen categories are most stumping me:

Best Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Cinematography
Best Costume Design
Best Animated Short
Best Live Action Short

Indeed, I’m not buying Sinners as that formidable a threat in Best Picture or Best Director. Nonetheless, I have come to the point where I see the film scoring six Oscars in total, including Best Actor and Best Supporting Actress, albeit narrowly in those two races.

On the heels of his losses at both BAFTA and SAG, it’s a stretch to still label Timothée Chalamet the Oscar front-runner. The last loser of these prizes to triumph at the Oscars was Sean Penn, who, 22 years ago, fell short to Bill Murray at BAFTA and Johnny Depp at SAG, only to pull off the upset with AMPAS for Mystic River.

That isn’t to say SAG winner Michael B. Jordan is an overwhelming favorite. After all, Chalamet prevailed at SAG last year, only to still lose to Brody at the Oscars. We’ve reached a point, however, where the buzz around 0-for-11 BAFTA loser Marty Supreme has so dampened that I wonder if Drama Golden Globe winner Wagner Moura may too have an edge over the former category favorite. It’s tough to actually predict Moura, given his snubs at both SAG and BAFTA, but the Best Picture nom for The Secret Agent rings as a testament to how much AMPAS admires his picture.

In short, odds are Jordan has surged at precisely the right time but neither Moura nor Chalamet can be counted out.

In Supporting Actress, I am wholeheartedly rooting for icon/legend/SAG winner Amy Madigan to triumph but my gut says BAFTA winner Wunmi Mosaku has the edge.

For one, AMPAS doesn’t seem overly keen on Weapons, with the film earning no nominations beyond this category. There is precedent for performers winning Supporting Actress as the lone nominee from their film but it’s rare, with eight total instances (including, most recently, Penélope Cruz for Vicky Cristina Barcelona in 2008). Moreover, in recent years, BAFTA has emerged as a more reliable precursor than SAG in forecasting Oscar winners. We’ve seen veteran actresses, including Demi Moore, Glenn Close and Julie Christie, prevail with SAG, only to come up short with AMPAS. It’s easy to picture Madigan following their lead.

Teyana Taylor remains a contender, especially if One Battle After Another simply steamrolls, but any past front-runner status has dissipated.

Among the craft categories, I’m most torn on Costume Design and Cinematography.

In the former, Frankenstein has seemingly emerged as a consensus among prognosticators, but I’m inclined to think Sinners can pull the upset, both because of its overall momentum and industry fondness for nominee Ruth E. Carter, who triumphed on her most recent two nominations. In the latter, Sinners seems to be surging (and One Battle After Another could take it too if it has an especially hot night) but I suspect Train Dreams, despite waning buzz, has just enough juice to hang on and score what would be its lone win of the night. If it does so, it’ll mark the first Cinematography winner without any other Oscar wins since Road to Perdition.

I am also, as is often the case, at a loss with several of the shorts. (Last year, I ranked I’m Not a Robot fifth to win Best Live Action Short and, of course, it triumphed!) I suspect any of the Animated Short nominees could prevail. Over in Live Action Short, my heart and soul are with the delightful A Friend of Dorothy but I suspect that race will instead be a barn burner between The Singers and the ambitious, unforgettable Two People Exchanging Saliva.

All things considered, I’m far more excited about this One Battle After Another/Sinners-dominated Oscar race than last year’s Anora/The Brutalist/Conclave battle. The prospect of Magidan or Mosaku taking Supporting Actress (both would be among the all-time great category winners) alone is getting me so pumped!

Best Picture

1. One Battle After Another

2. Sinners

3. Hamnet

4. Marty Supreme

5. Sentimental Value

6. The Secret Agent

7. Frankenstein

8. F1

9. Train Dreams

10. Bugonia

Best Director

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners

3. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet

4. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value

5. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme

Best Actress

1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

2. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

3. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value

4. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue

5. Emma Stone, Bugonia

Best Actor

1. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

2. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent

3. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme

4. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon

5. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another

Best Supporting Actress

1. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners

2. Amy Madigan, Weapons

3. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value

5. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value

Best Supporting Actor

1. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

2. Delroy Lindo, Sinners

3. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value

4. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein

5. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another

Best Original Screenplay

1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners

2. Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt, Sentimental Value

3. Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme

4. Jafar Panahi, Nader Saeivar, Shadmehr Rastin and Mehdi Mahmoudian, It Was Just an Accident

5. Robert Kaplow, Blue Moon

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

2. Maggie O’Farrell and Chloe Zhao, Hamnet

3. Will Tracy, Bugonia

4. Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar, Train Dreams

5. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein

Best Animated Feature

1. KPop Demon Hunters

2. Zootopia 2

3. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain

4. Arco

5. Elio

Best Animated Short

1. The Girl Who Cried Pearls

2. Butterfly

3. Forevergreen

4. Retirement Plan

5. The Three Sisters

Best Documentary Feature

1. The Perfect Neighbor

2. The Alabama Solution

3. Mr. Nobody Against Putin

4. Come See Me in the Good Light

5. Cutting Through Rocks

Best Documentary Short

1. All the Empty Rooms

2. The Devil Is Busy

3. Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud

4. Children No More: "Were and Are Gone"

5. Perfectly a Strangeness

Best Live Action Short

1. The Singers

2. Two People Exchanging Saliva

3. Butcher’s Stain

4. Jane Austen’s Period Drama

5. A Friend of Dorothy

Best International Feature

1. Sentimental Value (Norway)

2. The Secret Agent (Brazil)

3. Sirāt (Spain)

4. It Was Just an Accident (France)

5. The Voice of Hind Rajab (Tunisia)

Best Casting

1. Francine Maisler, Sinners

2. Cassandra Kulukundis, One Battle After Another

3. Gabriel Domingues, The Secret Agent

4. Nina Gold, Hamnet

5. Jennifer Venditti, Marty Supreme

Best Cinematography

1. Adolfo Veloso, Train Dreams

2. Autumn Durald Arkapaw, Sinners

3. Dan Laustsen, Frankenstein

4. Michael Bauman, One Battle After Another

5. Darius Khondji, Marty Supreme

Best Costume Design

1. Ruth E. Carter, Sinners

2. Kate Hawley, Frankenstein

3. Malgosia Turzanska, Hamnet

4. Miyako Bellizzi, Marty Supreme

5. Deborah L. Scott, Avatar: Fire and Ash

Best Film Editing

1. Stephen Mirrione, F1

2. Andy Jurgensen, One Battle After Another

3. Michael P. Shawver, Sinners

4. Olivier Bugge Coutté, Sentimental Value

5. Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Mike Hill, Cliona Furey and Jordan Samuel, Frankenstein

2. Ken Diaz, Mike Fontaine and Shunika Terry, Sinners

3. Anne Catherine Sauerberg and Thomas Foldberg, The Ugly Stepsister

4. Kyoko Toyokawa, Naomi Hibino and Tadashi Nishimatsu, Kokuho

5. Kazu Hiro, Glen Griffin and Bjoern Rehbein, The Smashing Machine

Best Original Score

1. Ludwig Göransson, Sinners

2. Jonny Greenwood, One Battle After Another

3. Alexandre Desplat, Frankenstein

4. Max Richter, Hamnet

5. Jerskin Fendrix, Bugonia

Best Original Song

1. “Golden,” KPop Demon Hunters

2. “I Lied to You,” Sinners

3. “Dear Me,” Diane Warren: Relentless

4. “Train Dreams,” Train Dreams

5. “Sweet Dreams of Joy,” Viva Verdi!

Best Production Design

1. Tamara Deverell and Shane Vieau, Frankenstein

2. Hannah Beachler and Monique Champagne, Sinners

3. Jack Fisk and Adam Willis, Marty Supreme

4. Florencia Martin and Anthony Carlino, One Battle After Another

5. Fiona Crombie and Alice Felton, Hamnet

Best Sound

1. Gareth John, Al Nelson, Juan Peralta, Gary A. Rizzo and Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, F1

2. Jose Antonio Garcia, Christopher Scarabosio and Tony Villaflor, One Battle After Another

3. Steve Boeddeker, Benny Burtt, David V. Butler, Felipe Pacheco, Brandon Proctor and Chris Welcker, Sinners

4. Laia Casanovas, Yasmina Praderas and Amanda Villavieja, Sirât

5. Greg Chapman, Christian Cooke, Nelson Ferreira, Nathan Robitaile and Brad Zoern, Frankenstein

Best Visual Effects

1. Richard Baneham, Daniel Barrett, Eric Saindon and Joe Letteri, Avatar: Fire and Ash

2. Nicolas Chevalier, Robert Harrington, Keith Alfred Dawson and Ryan Tudhope, F1

3. Donnie Dean, Espen Nordhal, Michael Ralla and Guido Wolter, Sinners

4. Charlie Noble, David Zaretti, Russell Bowen, and Brandon K. McLaughlin, The Lost Bus

5. Stephen Aplin, Charmaine Chan, Neil Corbould and David Vickery, Jurassic World Rebirth

FINAL 2025 Oscar Nomination Predictions

Here we go…

Final Oscar nom predictions for the season! Per usual, my rankings highlight how many slots a contender has moved up or down since my last set of hunches.

If there is a dominant headline, it has to be that Sinners is so close to shattering the all-time nominations record. With 14, the number I suspect it ultimately nets, it ties the record but I have it sixth in both Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress, ditto Original Song (for a second bid there). Any one of those will send it over the top. (Odd as it sounds, I fear the most vulnerable of those 14 may be Lead Actor, where Michael B. Jordan, Joel Edgerton and perhaps Jesse Plemons are competitive for the fifth spot.)

Best Picture

1. One Battle After Another (-)

2. Hamnet (-)

3. Sinners (+1)

4. Marty Supreme (-1)

5. Frankenstein (+3)

6. Sentimental Value (-)

7. The Secret Agent (-)

8. Bugonia (+6)

9. It Was Just an Accident (-4)

10. Train Dreams (-1)
    —

11. Weapons (-)

12. F1 (NEW)

13. Sirāt (-)

14. Wicked: For Good (-2)

15. Song Sung Blue (NEW)

DROPPED
No Other Choice (-6)
Jay Kelly (-1)

Best Director

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (-)

2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (+4)

3. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (-1)

4. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (-)

5. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (-)
   —

6. Jafar Panah, It Was Just an Accident (-3)

7. Kleber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (-)

8. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (-)

9. Oliver Laxe, Sirāt (+1)

10. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (NEW)

DROPPED
Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (-1)

Best Actress

1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (-)

2. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (-)

3. Emma Stone, Bugonia (+1)

4. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (-1)

5. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (+2)
   —

6. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (-1)

7. Jennifer Lawrence, Die My Love (+2)

8. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (-2)

9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (+1)

10. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (-2)

Best Actor

1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (+1)

2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (-1)

3. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (-)

4. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (-)

5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (+1)
   —

6. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (-1)

7. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (NEW)

8. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (-1)

9. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein (+1)

10. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (-2)

DROPPED
Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (-2)

Best Supporting Actress

1. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (-)

2. Amy Madigan, Weapons (-)

3. Odessa A'zion, Marty Supreme (+1)

4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value (+1)

5. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (-2)
   —

6. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (+1)

7. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (-1)

8. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (+2)

9. Emily Watson, Hamnet (NEW)

10. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (-2)

DROPPED
Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (-2)

Best Supporting Actor

1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (+1)

2. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (+3)

3. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (-)

4. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (-3)

5. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (-1)
   —

6. Miles Caton, Sinners (NEW)

7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (+2)

8. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon (-2)

9. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (-1)

10. William H. Macy, Train Dreams (-3)

DROPPED
Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (-1)

Best Original Screenplay

1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (+3)

2. Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (-1)

3. Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt, Sentimental Value (-1)

4. Jafar Panahi, Nader Saeivar, Shadmehr Rastin and Mehdi Mahmoudian, It Was Just an Accident (-1)

5. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (+3)
   —

6. Kleber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (-1)

7. Robert Kaplow, Blue Moon (-)

8. Zach Cregger, Weapons (+1)

9. Mary Bronstein, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (+1)

10. Noah Baumbach and Emily Mortimer, Jay Kelly (-4)

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (-)

2. Maggie O’Farrell and Chloe Zhao, Hamnet (-)

3. Will Tracy, Bugonia (+3)

4. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (-)

5. Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar, Train Dreams (-)
   —

6. Lee Ja-hye, Lee Kyoung-mi, Park Chan-wook and Don McKellar, No Other Choice (-3)

7. Rian Johnson, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (-)

8. Craig Brewer, Song Sung Blue (-)

9. James Vanderbilt, Nuremberg (-)

10. Nia DaCosta, Hedda (-)

Best Animated Feature

1. KPop Demon Hunters (-)

2. Zootopia 2 (-)

3. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (-)

4. Arco (-)

5. Elio (-)
   —

6. Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle (NEW)

7. In Your Dreams (-)

8. Scarlet (-)

9. A Magnificent Life (-)

10. The Bad Guys 2 (NEW)

DROPPED
Ne Zha 2 (-5)
The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants (-1)

Best Animated Short

1. Éiru (-)

2. The Girl Who Cried Pearls (-)

3. The Shyness of Trees (-)

4. Snow Bear (-)

5. The Night Boots (-)
   —

6. Hurikán (-)

7. The Three Sisters (-)

8. Butterfly (Papillon) (-)

9. The Quinta’s Ghost (-)

10. I Died in Irpin (-)

Best Documentary Feature

1. The Perfect Neighbor (-)

2. Come See Me in the Good Light (-)

3. 2000 Meters to Andriivka (-)

4. Apocalypse in the Tropics (-)

5. The Alabama Solution (-)
   —

6. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (+1)

7. Cover-Up (+1)

8. My Undesirable Friends: Part 1 – Last Air in Moscow (NEW)

9. Seeds (-3)

10. Folktales (-1)

DROPPED
Mistress Dispeller (-1)

Best Documentary Short

1. Armed Only with a Camera (-)

2. All the Walls Came Down (-)

3. On Healing Land, Birds Perch (-)

4. Rovina’s Choice (-)

5. Bad Hostage (-)
   —

6. Last Days on Lake Trinity (-)

7. Chasing Time (-)

8. Classroom 4 (-)

9. We Were the Scenery (-)

10. Heartbeat (-)

Best Live Action Short

1. Beyond Silence (-)

2. Amarela (-)

3. Rock, Paper, Scissors (-)

4. Ado (-)

5. The Pearl Comb (-)
   —

6. A Friend of Dorothy (-)

7. The Boy with White Skin (-)

8. Dad’s Not Home (-)

9. Butcher’s Stain (-)

10. The Singers (-)

Best International Feature

1. Sentimental Value (Norway) (-)

2. The Secret Agent (Brazil) (+1)

3. It Was Just an Accident (France) (-1)

4. Sirāt (Spain) (+1)

5. Left-Handed Girl (Taiwan) (+1)
   —

6. The Voice of Hind Rajab (Tunisia) (+2)

7. No Other Choice (South Korea) (-3)

8. The President’s Cake (Iraq) (-1)

9. Sound of Falling (Germany) (-)

10. Belén (NEW)

DROPPED
All That’s Left of You (Jordan) (-1)

Best Casting

1. Cassandra Kulukundis, One Battle After Another (-)

2. Francine Maisler, Sinners (-)

3. Jennifer Venditti, Marty Supreme (-)

4. Nina Gold, Hamnet (-)

5. Yngvill Kolset Haga and Avy Kaufman, Sentimental Value (-)
   —

6. Gabriel Domingues, The Secret Agent (-)

7. Robin D. Cook, Frankenstein (+1)

8. Allison Jones, Weapons (-1)

9. Tiffany Little Canfield and Bernard Telsey, Wicked: For Good (-)

10. Nadia Acimi and Luis Bértolo, Sirât (-)

Best Cinematography

1. Autumn Durald Arkapaw, Sinners (-)

2. Dan Laustsen, Frankenstein (-)

3. Michael Bauman, One Battle After Another (-)

4. Lukasz Zal, Hamnet (-)

5. Adolfo Veloso, Train Dreams (+1)
   —

6. Darius Khondji, Marty Supreme (-1)

7. Claudio Miranda, F1 (+1)

8. Robbie Ryan, Bugonia (+1)

9. Mauro Herce, Sirât (-2)

10. Seamus McGarvey, Die My Love (NEW)

DROPPED
David Chambille, Nouvelle Vague (-1)

Best Costume Design

1. Ruth E. Carter, Sinners (-)

2. Kate Hawley, Frankenstein (+1)

3. Paul Tazewell, Wicked: For Good (-1)

4. Miyako Bellizzi, Marty Supreme (-)

5. Malgosia Turzanska, Hamnet (-)
   —

6. Colleen Atwood, One Battle After Another (-)

7. Kumiko Ogawa, Kokuho (-)

8. Lindsay Pugh, Hedda (+1)

9. Malgorzata Karpiuk, The Testament of Ann Lee (-1)

10. Colleen Atwood and Christine L. Cantella, Kiss of the Spider Woman (-)

Best Film Editing

1. Andy Jurgensen, One Battle After Another (-)

2. Michael P. Shawver, Sinners (+1)

3. Ronald Bronstein, Marty Supreme (-1)

4. Stephen Mirrione, F1 (+2)

5. Chloé Zhao and Affonso Gonçalves, Hamnet (-)
   —

6. Evan Schiff, Frankenstein (-2)

7. Cristóbal Fernández, Sirât (+1)

8. Kirk Baxter, A House of Dynamite (NEW)

9. Yorgos Mavropsaridis, Bugonia (NEW)

10. Olivier Bugge Coutté, Sentimental Value (-1)

DROPPED
Amir Etminan, It Was Just an Accident (-4)
James Cameron, Nicolas De Toth, John Refoua, David Brenner and Stephen E. Rivkin, Avatar: Fire and Ash (-1)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Mike Hill, Cliona Furey and Jordan Samuel, Frankenstein (-)

2. Ken Diaz, Mike Fontaine and Shunika Terry, Sinners (+1)

3. Mark Coulier, Frances Hannon and Laura Blount, Wicked: For Good (-1)

4. Kazu Hiro, Glen Griffin and Bjoern Rehbein, The Smashing Machine (-)

5. Kyoko Toyokawa, Naomi Hibino andTadashi Nishimatsu, Kokuho (-)
   —

6. Mike Fontaine, Kay Georgiou and Kyra Pachenko, Marty Supreme (+2)

7. Arjen Tuiten, One Battle After Another (-)

8. Jan Sewell, Renata Gilbert and Sharon Robbins, Nuremberg (-2)

9. Anne Catherine Sauerberg and Thomas Foldberg, The Ugly Stepsister (-)

10. Jerry Popolis, Hiro Yada and Jason Hamer, The Alto Knights (-)

Best Original Score

1. Ludwig Göransson, Sinners (+1)

2. Jonny Greenwood, One Battle After Another (-1)

3. Max Richter, Hamnet (-)

4. Alexandre Desplat, Frankenstein (-)

5. Daniel Lopatin, Marty Supreme (-)
   —

6. Bryce Dessner, Train Dreams (-)

7. Kangding Ray, Sirât (-)

8. Stephen Schwartz and John Powell, Wicked: For Good (-)

9. Jerskin Fendrix, Bugonia (NEW)

10. Hildur Guðnadóttir, Hedda (-)

DROPPED
Nicholas Britell, Jay Kelly (-2)

Best Original Song

1. “Golden,” KPop Demon Hunters (+1)

2. “I Lied to You,” Sinners (+1)

3. “Dear Me,” Diane Warren: Relentless (-2)

4. “The Girl in the Bubble,” Wicked: For Good (-)

5. “Train Dreams,” Train Dreams (+1)
   —

6. “Last Time (I Seen the Sun),” Sinners (-1)

7. “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet,” Come See Me in the Good Light (-)

8. “Drive,” F1 (NEW)

9. “No Place Like Home,” Wicked: For Good (-1)

10. “Highest 2 Lowest,” Highest 2 Lowest (-1)

DROPPED
“Dream as One,” Avatar: Fire and Ash (-1)

Best Production Design

1. Tamara Deverell and Shane Vieau, Frankenstein (-)

2. Hannah Beachler and Monique Champagne, Sinners (-)

3. Jack Fisk and Adam Willis, Marty Supreme (+1)

4. Fiona Crombie and Alice Felton, Hamnet (+1)

5. Nathan Crowley and Lee Sandales, Wicked: For Good (-2)
   —

6. Florencia Martin and Anthony Carlino, One Battle After Another (-)

7. Dylan Cole, Ben Procter and Vanessa Cole, Avatar: Fire and Ash (-)

8. Kasra Farahani and Jille Azis, The Fantastic Four: First Steps (-)

9. Katia Wyszkop, Nouvelle Vague (-)

10. Cara Bower and Stella Fox, Hedda (-)

Best Sound

1. Jose Antonio Garcia, Christopher Scarabosio and Tony Villaflor, One Battle After Another (-)

2. Steve Boeddeker, Benny Burtt, David V. Butler, Felipe Pacheco, Brandon Proctor and Chris Welcker, Sinners (-)

3. Greg Chapman, Christian Cooke, Nelson Ferreira, Nathan Robitaile and Brad Zoern, Frankenstein (-)

4. Gareth John, Al Nelson, Juan Peralta, Gary A. Rizzo and Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, F1 (+1)

5. Jack Dolman, Simon Hayes, John Marquis, Andy Nelson and Nancy Nugent Title, Wicked: For Good (+1)
   —

6. Chris Burdon, Lloyd Dudley, James H. Mather, Mark Taylor and Cécile Tournesac, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (+2)

7. Laia Casanovas, Yasmina Praderas and Amanda Villavieja, Sirât (-)

8. Brent Burge, Alexis Feodoroff, Michael Hedges, Julian Howarth and Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Avatar: Fire and Ash (-4)

9. Lance Acord, Chris Boyes, Tim LeBlanc, Lee Orloff and Katy Wood, Superman (+1)

10. David Giammarco, Tod A. Maitland, Paul Massey and Eric A. Norris, Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere (-1)

Best Visual Effects

1. Richard Baneham, Daniel Barrett, Eric Saindon and Joe Letteri, Avatar: Fire and Ash (-)

2. Dennis Berardi, Ayo Burgess, Ivan Busquets and Jose Granell, Frankenstein (-)

3. Donnie Dean, Espen Nordhal, Michael Ralla and Guido Wolter, Sinners (-)

4. Nicolas Chevalier, Robert Harrington, Keith Alfred Dawson and Ryan Tudhope, F1 (+1)

5. Stephane Ceretti, Enrico Damm, Stéphane Nazé and Guy Williams, Superman (+1)
   —

6. Charlie Noble, David Zaretti, Russell Bowen, and Brandon K. McLaughlin, The Lost Bus (+3)

7. Paul Corbould, Jonathan Fawkner, Pablo Helman and Dale Newton, Wicked: For Good (-3)

8. Jeff Capogreco, Vincent Papaix, David Seager and Cameron Waldbauer, Tron: Ares (-1)

9. Stephen Aplin, Charmaine Chan, Neil Corbould and David Vickery, Jurassic World Rebirth (-1)

10. Matthew E. Butler, Russell Earl, Joel Behrens and Elizabeth Bernard, The Electric State (-)

2024 Oscar Winner Predictions

These strike me as the toughest categories to crack - races where I’m still wavering and devoid of any real confidence on the outcome:

Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actress
Best Original Screenplay
Best Documentary Feature
Best Film Editing
Best Sound

Conclave and Anora are so close for the top prize that I can’t help but simply split the difference and go with the former in Best Picture (despite its surprising Best Director snub) and latter in Director. I can just as easily fathom Anora taking both or Brady Corbet repeating his BAFTA win. (I don’t, however, have much faith in The Brutalist taking Picture, even if Corbet triumphs).

Best Actress rings of a true barn burner and not necessarily just between Demi Moore and Mikey Madison - with I’m Still Here as a surprise (and plenty deserving) Best Picture nominee, backed by the awards season masters at Sony Pictures Classics, there’s a legitimate case to be made for Fernanda Torres. It’s plausible Moore falls short ala past SAG-winning/BAFTA-losing veterans Julie Christie and Glenn Close but there’s no doubt more passion exists in AMPAS for The Substance than did for the likes of Away from Her and The Wife - and all of her precursor speeches have been knockouts. At the same time, it’s hard to fathom Madison losing if Anora is winning the top prize.

Even with Anora riding high in momentum, Best Original Screenplay looks awfully tight too, especially on the heels of A Real Pain’s BAFTA win. Do actors overwhelmingly vote for Jesse Eisenberg and put him over the top? Had his film scored a Best Picture nom, I’d probably predict him. If he does claim victory, A Real Pain will mark only the second film in Oscar history, after The Usual Suspects, to earn two nominations in total - one for acting, one for writing - and win both.

For much of the season, No Other Land seemed to have the makings of a Best Documentary Feature front-runner but that hasn’t really panned out. Instead, this rings of a race where any of the contenders could triumph.

Among the crafts, Best Film Editing feels the most unsettled. Odds are, its winner will match the Best Picture winner, so Conclave or Anora, though I don’t count Emilia Pérez out, even if it’s done at this point for the top prize. Best Sound is also tough to forecast - Dune: Part Two makes sense, in part because the first entry took this category, but this also presents the best opportunity to throw A Complete Unknown a bone and avoid an 0-for-8 shutout. Wicked has a real shot here too.

Beyond these super suspenseful showdowns - I’m not buying Timothée Chalamet as a truly daunting threat to Adrien Brody in Best Actor (and I predicted Chalamet at SAG). He’s at least, of course, more within striking distance than any of the hopeless competition facing Zoe Saldaña and Kieran Culkin.

Conclave will score Best Adapted Screenplay regardless of how Best Picture goes down. I do have I’m Still Here scoring the upset over Emilia Pérez in Best International Feature Film, though I’m not sure how much of a shock that’ll be at this point, given the former’s Best Picture nom and the latter’s deterioration. The crafts will spread the love but again, may be challenging to avoid a shutout for A Complete Unknown.

As for Best Original Song…I so wish I could predict Diane Warren finally triumphing on her 16th Oscar nom. I can’t quite get there - I still think “El Mal” takes it, in part because it’s a Zoe Saldaña showcase and she’s managed to escape her film’s collapse unscathed. But this is Warren’s best shot since 2015 and, barring a groundswell of love for Elton John, she’s probably in runner-up position.

All that said, here they are - final Oscar predictions, from most to least likely to win:

Best Picture

1. Conclave

2. Anora

3. The Brutalist

4. Wicked

5. The Substance

6. A Complete Unknown

7. I’m Still Here

8. Emilia Pérez

9. Nickel Boys

10. Dune: Part Two

Best Director

1. Sean Baker, Anora

2. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist

3. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance

4. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown

5. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez

Best Actress

1. Demi Moore, The Substance

2. Mikey Madison, Anora

3. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here

4. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked

5. Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez

Best Actor

1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist

2. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown

3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave

4. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing

5. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice

Best Supporting Actress

1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez

2. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave

3. Ariana Grande, Wicked

4. Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown

5. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist

Best Supporting Actor

1. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist

3. Yura Borisov, Anora

4. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown

5. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice

Best Original Screenplay

1. Sean Baker, Anora

2. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain

3. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance

4. Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold, The Brutalist

5. Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum and Alex David, September 5

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Peter Straughan, Conclave

2. RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes, Nickel Boys

3. Jay Cocks and James Mangold, A Complete Unknown

4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez

5. Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin and John “Divine G” Whitfield, Sing Sing

Best Animated Feature

1. The Wild Robot

2. Flow

3. Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

4. Memoir of a Snail

5. Inside Out 2

Best Documentary Feature

1. Porcelain War

2. Black Box Diaries

3. No Other Land

4. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat

5. Sugarcane

Best International Feature

1. I’m Still Here (Brazil)

2. Emilia Pérez (France)

3. Flow (Latvia)

4. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany)

5. The Girl with the Needle (Denmark)

Best Animated Short

1. Wander to Wonder

2. Yuck!

3. Beautiful Men

4. In the Shadow of the Cypress

5. Magic Candles

Best Documentary Short

1. The Only Girl in the Orchestra

2. I Am Ready, Warden

3. Death by Numbers

4. Incident

5. Instruments of a Beating Heart

Best Live Action Short

1. The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent

2. Anuja

3. A Lien

4. The Last Ranger

5. I’m Not a Robot

Best Cinematography

1. Lol Crawley, The Brutalist

2. Greig Fraser, Dune: Part Two

3. Jarin Blaschke, Nosferatu

4. Edward Lachman, Maria

5. Paul Guilhaume, Emilia Pérez

Best Costume Design

1. Paul Tazewell, Wicked

2. Linda Muir, Nosferatu

3. Lisy Christl, Conclave

4. Arianne Phillips, A Complete Unknown

5. Janty Yates and Dave Crossman, Gladiator II

Best Film Editing

1. Nick Emerson, Conclave

2. Sean Baker, Anora

3. Juliette Welfling, Emilia Pérez

4. Myron Kerstein, Wicked

5. Dávid Jancsóm, The Brutalist

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Pierre-Oliver Persin, Stéphanie Guillon and Marilyne Scarselli, The Substance

2. Frances Hannon, Sarah Nuth and Laura Blount, Wicked

3. Traci Loader, Suzanne Stokes-Munton and David White, Nosferatu

4. Julia Floch Carbonel, Emmanuel Janvier and Jean-Christophe Spadaccini, Emilia Pérez

5. Mike Marino, Sarah Graalman and Aaron Saucier, A Different Man

Best Original Score

1. Daniel Blumberg, The Brutalist

2. Volker Bertelmann, Conclave

3. John Powell and Stephen Schwartz, Wicked

4. Clément Ducol and Camille, Emilia Pérez

5. Kris Bowers, The Wild Robot

Best Original Song

1. “El Mal,” Emilia Pérez

2. “The Journey,” The Six Triple Eight

3. “Never Too Late,” Elton John: Never Too Late

4. “Like a Bird,” Sing Sing

5. "Mi Camino,” Emilia Pérez

Best Production Design

1. Nathan Crowley and Lee Sandales, Wicked

2. Craig Lathrop and Beatrice Brentnerová, Nosferatu

3. Judy Becker and Patricia Cuccia, The Brutalist

4. Suzie Davies and Roberta Federico, Conclave

5. Zsuzsanna Sipos, Shane Vieau and Patrice Vermette, Dune: Part Two

Best Sound

1. Gareth John, Richard King, Ron Bartlett and Doug Hemphill, Dune: Part Two

2. Ted Caplan, Tod Maitland, David Giammarco, Paul Massey and Donald Sylvester, A Complete Unknown

3. Simon Hayes, Nancy Nugent Title, Jack Dolman, Andy Nelson and John Marquis, Wicked

4. Erwan Kerzanet, Aymeric Devoldère, Maxence Dussère, Cyril Holtz and Niels Barletta, Emilia Pérez

5. Randy Thom, Gary A. Rizzo, Leff Lefferts and Brian Chumney, The Wild Robot

Best Visual Effects

1. Paul Lambert, Stephen James, Rhys Salcombe and Gerd Nefzer, Dune: Part Two

2. Pablo Helman, Jonathan Fawkner, Paul Corbould and David Shirk, Wicked

3. Erik Winquist, Stephen Unterfranz, Paul Story and Rodney Burke, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

4. Luke Miller, David Clayton, Keith Herft and Peter Stubbs, Better Man

5. Eric Barba, Nelson Sepulveda-Fauser, Daniel Macarin and Shane Patrick Mahan, Alien: Romulus

#ForYourConsiderationFriday - The Collection!

Hey there, fellow Oscar fans!

For those of you who follow me on Twitter, you may have noticed that, each Friday, I do a little hashtag called #ForYourConsiderationFriday, highlighting a past Oscar FYC ad. More often than not, it’s a vintage oldie, pulled from a past Hollywood Reporter or Variety, though I will, now and then, post a more recent ad if it piques my interest (hello, Best Supporting Actress hopeful Betty White in The Proposal).

Initially, I was merely doing this during the Oscar season itself. Eventually, I decided to make this a weekly thing - and will continue to do so moving forward.

This page will fulfill something I’ve been meaning to do for a while now - get these ads onto the blog, compiled into one place and categorized. I’ll keep this organized across nine fields - Best Picture/’All Categories’ (since countless films run one-pagers covering everything), Best Director, Best Actress, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Best Screenplay, Best Score/Song and the rest of the craft categories.

I’ll be including all of the FYC ads I’ve posted to Twitter (a total of 319 thus far) and will upload each Friday’s new one as I go along. The goal, of course, is to ultimately amass the motherlode of Oscar FYC ads, which sounds like the most prolonged of processes at one post/week but hey, that’s 52 ads/year = 520 ads/decade. Not bad! ;)