FINAL 2025 Oscar Winner Predictions

At last!

With Oscar night right around the corner, these half dozen categories are most stumping me:

Best Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Cinematography
Best Costume Design
Best Animated Short
Best Live Action Short

Indeed, I’m not buying Sinners as that formidable a threat in Best Picture or Best Director. Nonetheless, I have come to the point where I see the film scoring six Oscars in total, including Best Actor and Best Supporting Actress, albeit narrowly in those two races.

On the heels of his losses at both BAFTA and SAG, it’s a stretch to still label Timothée Chalamet the Oscar front-runner. The last loser of these prizes to triumph at the Oscars was Sean Penn, who, 22 years ago, fell short to Bill Murray at BAFTA and Johnny Depp at SAG, only to pull off the upset with AMPAS for Mystic River.

That isn’t to say SAG winner Michael B. Jordan is an overwhelming favorite. After all, Chalamet prevailed at SAG last year, only to still lose to Brody at the Oscars. We’ve reached a point, however, where the buzz around 0-for-11 BAFTA loser Marty Supreme has so dampened that I wonder if Drama Golden Globe winner Wagner Moura may too have an edge over the former category favorite. It’s tough to actually predict Moura, given his snubs at both SAG and BAFTA, but the Best Picture nom for The Secret Agent rings as a testament to how much AMPAS admires his picture.

In short, odds are Jordan has surged at precisely the right time but neither Moura nor Chalamet can be counted out.

In Supporting Actress, I am wholeheartedly rooting for icon/legend/SAG winner Amy Madigan to triumph but my gut says BAFTA winner Wunmi Mosaku has the edge.

For one, AMPAS doesn’t seem overly keen on Weapons, with the film earning no nominations beyond this category. There is precedent for performers winning Supporting Actress as the lone nominee from their film but it’s rare, with eight total instances (including, most recently, Penélope Cruz for Vicky Cristina Barcelona in 2008). Moreover, in recent years, BAFTA has emerged as a more reliable precursor than SAG in forecasting Oscar winners. We’ve seen veteran actresses, including Demi Moore, Glenn Close and Julie Christie, prevail with SAG, only to come up short with AMPAS. It’s easy to picture Madigan following their lead.

Teyana Taylor remains a contender, especially if One Battle After Another simply steamrolls, but any past front-runner status has dissipated.

Among the craft categories, I’m most torn on Costume Design and Cinematography.

In the former, Frankenstein has seemingly emerged as a consensus among prognosticators, but I’m inclined to think Sinners can pull the upset, both because of its overall momentum and industry fondness for nominee Ruth E. Carter, who triumphed on her most recent two nominations. In the latter, Sinners seems to be surging (and One Battle After Another could take it too if it has an especially hot night) but I suspect Train Dreams, despite waning buzz, has just enough juice to hang on and score what would be its lone win of the night. If it does so, it’ll mark the first Cinematography winner without any other Oscar wins since Road to Perdition.

I am also, as is often the case, at a loss with several of the shorts. (Last year, I ranked I’m Not a Robot fifth to win Best Live Action Short and, of course, it triumphed!) I suspect any of the Animated Short nominees could prevail. Over in Live Action Short, my heart and soul are with the delightful A Friend of Dorothy but I suspect that race will instead be a barn burner between The Singers and the ambitious, unforgettable Two People Exchanging Saliva.

All things considered, I’m far more excited about this One Battle After Another/Sinners-dominated Oscar race than last year’s Anora/The Brutalist/Conclave battle. The prospect of Magidan or Mosaku taking Supporting Actress (both would be among the all-time great category winners) alone is getting me so pumped!

Best Picture

1. One Battle After Another

2. Sinners

3. Hamnet

4. Marty Supreme

5. Sentimental Value

6. The Secret Agent

7. Frankenstein

8. F1

9. Train Dreams

10. Bugonia

Best Director

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners

3. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet

4. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value

5. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme

Best Actress

1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

2. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

3. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value

4. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue

5. Emma Stone, Bugonia

Best Actor

1. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

2. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent

3. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme

4. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon

5. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another

Best Supporting Actress

1. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners

2. Amy Madigan, Weapons

3. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value

5. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value

Best Supporting Actor

1. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

2. Delroy Lindo, Sinners

3. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value

4. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein

5. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another

Best Original Screenplay

1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners

2. Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt, Sentimental Value

3. Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme

4. Jafar Panahi, Nader Saeivar, Shadmehr Rastin and Mehdi Mahmoudian, It Was Just an Accident

5. Robert Kaplow, Blue Moon

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

2. Maggie O’Farrell and Chloe Zhao, Hamnet

3. Will Tracy, Bugonia

4. Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar, Train Dreams

5. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein

Best Animated Feature

1. KPop Demon Hunters

2. Zootopia 2

3. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain

4. Arco

5. Elio

Best Animated Short

1. The Girl Who Cried Pearls

2. Butterfly

3. Forevergreen

4. Retirement Plan

5. The Three Sisters

Best Documentary Feature

1. The Perfect Neighbor

2. The Alabama Solution

3. Mr. Nobody Against Putin

4. Come See Me in the Good Light

5. Cutting Through Rocks

Best Documentary Short

1. All the Empty Rooms

2. The Devil Is Busy

3. Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud

4. Children No More: "Were and Are Gone"

5. Perfectly a Strangeness

Best Live Action Short

1. The Singers

2. Two People Exchanging Saliva

3. Butcher’s Stain

4. Jane Austen’s Period Drama

5. A Friend of Dorothy

Best International Feature

1. Sentimental Value (Norway)

2. The Secret Agent (Brazil)

3. Sirāt (Spain)

4. It Was Just an Accident (France)

5. The Voice of Hind Rajab (Tunisia)

Best Casting

1. Francine Maisler, Sinners

2. Cassandra Kulukundis, One Battle After Another

3. Gabriel Domingues, The Secret Agent

4. Nina Gold, Hamnet

5. Jennifer Venditti, Marty Supreme

Best Cinematography

1. Adolfo Veloso, Train Dreams

2. Autumn Durald Arkapaw, Sinners

3. Dan Laustsen, Frankenstein

4. Michael Bauman, One Battle After Another

5. Darius Khondji, Marty Supreme

Best Costume Design

1. Ruth E. Carter, Sinners

2. Kate Hawley, Frankenstein

3. Malgosia Turzanska, Hamnet

4. Miyako Bellizzi, Marty Supreme

5. Deborah L. Scott, Avatar: Fire and Ash

Best Film Editing

1. Stephen Mirrione, F1

2. Andy Jurgensen, One Battle After Another

3. Michael P. Shawver, Sinners

4. Olivier Bugge Coutté, Sentimental Value

5. Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Mike Hill, Cliona Furey and Jordan Samuel, Frankenstein

2. Ken Diaz, Mike Fontaine and Shunika Terry, Sinners

3. Anne Catherine Sauerberg and Thomas Foldberg, The Ugly Stepsister

4. Kyoko Toyokawa, Naomi Hibino and Tadashi Nishimatsu, Kokuho

5. Kazu Hiro, Glen Griffin and Bjoern Rehbein, The Smashing Machine

Best Original Score

1. Ludwig Göransson, Sinners

2. Jonny Greenwood, One Battle After Another

3. Alexandre Desplat, Frankenstein

4. Max Richter, Hamnet

5. Jerskin Fendrix, Bugonia

Best Original Song

1. “Golden,” KPop Demon Hunters

2. “I Lied to You,” Sinners

3. “Dear Me,” Diane Warren: Relentless

4. “Train Dreams,” Train Dreams

5. “Sweet Dreams of Joy,” Viva Verdi!

Best Production Design

1. Tamara Deverell and Shane Vieau, Frankenstein

2. Hannah Beachler and Monique Champagne, Sinners

3. Jack Fisk and Adam Willis, Marty Supreme

4. Florencia Martin and Anthony Carlino, One Battle After Another

5. Fiona Crombie and Alice Felton, Hamnet

Best Sound

1. Gareth John, Al Nelson, Juan Peralta, Gary A. Rizzo and Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, F1

2. Jose Antonio Garcia, Christopher Scarabosio and Tony Villaflor, One Battle After Another

3. Steve Boeddeker, Benny Burtt, David V. Butler, Felipe Pacheco, Brandon Proctor and Chris Welcker, Sinners

4. Laia Casanovas, Yasmina Praderas and Amanda Villavieja, Sirât

5. Greg Chapman, Christian Cooke, Nelson Ferreira, Nathan Robitaile and Brad Zoern, Frankenstein

Best Visual Effects

1. Richard Baneham, Daniel Barrett, Eric Saindon and Joe Letteri, Avatar: Fire and Ash

2. Nicolas Chevalier, Robert Harrington, Keith Alfred Dawson and Ryan Tudhope, F1

3. Donnie Dean, Espen Nordhal, Michael Ralla and Guido Wolter, Sinners

4. Charlie Noble, David Zaretti, Russell Bowen, and Brandon K. McLaughlin, The Lost Bus

5. Stephen Aplin, Charmaine Chan, Neil Corbould and David Vickery, Jurassic World Rebirth