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One Battle After Another continues to loom large over this awards season - including my current Oscar nomination predictions, which find the Paul Thomas Anderson film scoring 13 noms.

2025 Oscar Nomination Predictions (December)

December 21, 2025 by Andrew Carden in Oscars

Happy holidays, fellow film fans! :)

Here are some updated Oscar nom predictions for the month of December. No doubt, they will be turned upside down in the New Year, as the guilds have their say. Per usual, the rankings highlight how many spots a contender has moved up or down since my last set of hunches.

Best Picture

  1. One Battle After Another (-)

  2. Hamnet (-)

  3. Marty Supreme (+2)

  4. Sinners (-)

  5. It Was Just an Accident (+1)

  6. Sentimental Value (-3)

  7. The Secret Agent (-)

  8. Frankenstein (+2)

  9. Train Dreams (+3)

  10. No Other Choice (+3)
    —

  11. Weapons (NEW)

  12. Wicked: For Good (-3)

  13. Sirāt (NEW)

  14. Bugonia (NEW)

  15. Jay Kelly (-4)

DROPPED
Avatar: Fire and Ash (-8)
Rental Family (-2)
Song Sung Blue (-1)

Best Director

  1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (-)

  2. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (-)

  3. Jafar Panah, It Was Just an Accident (+1)

  4. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (+1)

  5. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (-2)
    —

  6. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (-)

  7. Kleber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (-)

  8. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (+1)

  9. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (-1)

  10. Oliver Laxe, Sirāt (NEW)

DROPPED
Craig Brewer, Song Sung Blue (-1)

Best Actress

  1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (-)

  2. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (+6)

  3. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (-1)

  4. Emma Stone, Bugonia (+1)

  5. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (+1)
    —

  6. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (-2)

  7. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (-)

  8. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (-5)

  9. Jennifer Lawrence, Die My Love (+1)

  10. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (-1)

Best Actor

  1. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (-)

  2. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (-)

  3. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (+1)

  4. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (-1)

  5. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (+4)
    —

  6. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (+2)

  7. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (-3)

  8. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (-2)

  9. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (NEW)

  10. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein (NEW)

DROPPED
Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (-6)
Will Arnett, Is This Thing On? (-1)

Best Supporting Actress

  1. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (+2)

  2. Amy Madigan, Weapons (+5)

  3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (-2)

  4. Odessa A'zion, Marty Supreme (+4)

  5. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value (-1)
    —

  6. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (-4)

  7. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (NEW)

  8. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (NEW)

  9. Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (-)

  10. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (-4)

DROPPED
Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (-6)
Jamie Lee Curtis, Ella McCay (-1)

Best Supporting Actor

  1. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (+3)

  2. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (-1)

  3. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (-1)

  4. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (-1)

  5. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (+2)
    —

  6. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon (+4)

  7. William H. Macy, Train Dreams (+2)

  8. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (-2)

  9. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (-1)

  10. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (-5)

Best Original Screenplay

  1. Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (+1)

  2. Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt, Sentimental Value (-1)

  3. Jafar Panahi, Nader Saeivar, Shadmehr Rastin and Mehdi Mahmoudian, It Was Just an Accident (-)

  4. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (-)

  5. Kleber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (+1)
    —

  6. Noah Baumbach and Emily Mortimer, Jay Kelly (-1)

  7. Robert Kaplow, Blue Moon (-)

  8. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (NEW)

  9. Zach Cregger, Weapons (NEW)

  10. Mary Bronstein, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (NEW)

DROPPED
Will Arnett, Mark Chappell, Bradley Cooper and John Bishop, Is This Thing On? (-3)
Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold, The Testament of Ann Lee (-2)
Hikari and Stephen Blahut, Rental Family (-1)

Best Adapted Screenplay

  1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (-)

  2. Maggie O’Farrell and Chloe Zhao, Hamnet (-)

  3. Lee Ja-hye, Lee Kyoung-mi, Park Chan-wook and Don McKellar, No Other Choice (+1)

  4. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (+2)

  5. Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar, Train Dreams (-)
    —

  6. Will Tracy, Bugonia (+1)

  7. Rian Johnson, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (-4)

  8. Craig Brewer, Song Sung Blue (-)

  9. James Vanderbilt, Nuremberg (+1)

  10. Nia DaCosta, Hedda (-1)

Best Animated Feature

  1. KPop Demon Hunters (-)

  2. Zootopia 2 (-)

  3. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (-)

  4. Arco (-)

  5. Elio (-)
    —

  6. Ne Zha 2 (-)

  7. In Your Dreams (-)

  8. Scarlet (-)

  9. A Magnificent Life (-)

  10. The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants (NEW)

DROPPED
The Bad Guys 2 (-1)

Best Animated Short

  1. Éiru

  2. The Girl Who Cried Pearls

  3. The Shyness of Trees

  4. Snow Bear

  5. The Night Boots
    —

  6. Hurikán

  7. The Three Sisters

  8. Butterfly (Papillon)

  9. The Quinta’s Ghost

  10. I Died in Irpin

Best Documentary Feature

  1. The Perfect Neighbor (-)

  2. Come See Me in the Good Light (NEW)

  3. 2000 Meters to Andriivka (-)

  4. Apocalypse in the Tropics (-)

  5. The Alabama Solution (+2)
    —

  6. Seeds (+2)

  7. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (+2)

  8. Cover-Up (NEW)

  9. Folktales (NEW)

  10. Mistress Dispeller (NEW)

DROPPED
The Tale of Silyan (-9)
Orwell 2+2=5 (-6)
The Librarians (-5)
The Eyes of Ghana (-1)

Best Documentary Short

  1. Armed Only with a Camera

  2. All the Walls Came Down

  3. On Healing Land, Birds Perch

  4. Rovina’s Choice

  5. Bad Hostage
    —

  6. Last Days on Lake Trinity

  7. Chasing Time

  8. Classroom 4

  9. We Were the Scenery

  10. Heartbeat

Best Live Action Short

  1. Beyond Silence

  2. Amarela

  3. Rock, Paper, Scissors

  4. Ado

  5. The Pearl Comb
    —

  6. A Friend of Dorothy

  7. The Boy with White Skin

  8. Dad’s Not Home

  9. Butcher’s Stain

  10. The Singers

Best International Feature

  1. Sentimental Value (Norway) (-)

  2. It Was Just an Accident (France) (-)

  3. The Secret Agent (Brazil) (-)

  4. No Other Choice (South Korea) (-)

  5. Sirāt (Spain) (+5)
    —

  6. Left-Handed Girl (Taiwan) (-1)

  7. The President’s Cake (Iraq) (-1)

  8. The Voice of Hind Rajab (Tunisia) (-)

  9. Sound of Falling (Germany) (-)

  10. All That’s Left of You (Jordan) (NEW)

DROPPED
Mr. Nobody Against Putin (Denmark) (-4)

Best Casting

  1. Cassandra Kulukundis, One Battle After Another (-)

  2. Francine Maisler, Sinners (-)

  3. Jennifer Venditti, Marty Supreme (+1)

  4. Nina Gold, Hamnet (-1)

  5. Yngvill Kolset Haga and Avy Kaufman, Sentimental Value (-)
    —

  6. Gabriel Domingues, The Secret Agent (NEW)

  7. Allison Jones, Weapons (+3)

  8. Robin D. Cook, Frankenstein (NEW)

  9. Tiffany Little Canfield and Bernard Telsey, Wicked: For Good (-)

  10. Nadia Acimi and Luis Bértolo, Sirât (NEW)

DROPPED
Bret Howe and Mary Vernieu, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (-6)
Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (-4)
Douglas Aibel and Nina Gold, Jay Kelly (-3)

Best Cinematography

  1. Autumn Durald Arkapaw, Sinners (-)

  2. Dan Laustsen, Frankenstein (-)

  3. Michael Bauman, One Battle After Another (-)

  4. Lukasz Zal, Hamnet (-)

  5. Darius Khondji, Marty Supreme (-)
    —

  6. Adolfo Veloso, Train Dreams (+2)

  7. Mauro Herce, Sirât (NEW)

  8. Claudio Miranda, F1 (-1)

  9. Robbie Ryan, Bugonia (+1)

  10. David Chambille, Nouvelle Vague (-1)

DROPPED
Russell Carpenter, Avatar: Fire and Ash (-3)

Best Costume Design

  1. Ruth E. Carter, Sinners (+1)

  2. Paul Tazewell, Wicked: For Good (-1)

  3. Kate Hawley, Frankenstein (-)

  4. Miyako Bellizzi, Marty Supreme (+4)

  5. Malgosia Turzanska, Hamnet (-1)
    —

  6. Colleen Atwood, One Battle After Another (+1)

  7. Kumiko Ogawa, Kokuho (NEW)

  8. Malgorzata Karpiuk, The Testament of Ann Lee (-3)

  9. Lindsay Pugh, Hedda (-3)

  10. Colleen Atwood and Christine L. Cantella, Kiss of the Spider Woman (-1)

DROPPED
Pascaline Chavanne, Nouvelle Vague (-1)

Best Film Editing

  1. Andy Jurgensen, One Battle After Another (-)

  2. Ronald Bronstein, Marty Supreme (+1)

  3. Michael P. Shawver, Sinners (-1)

  4. Evan Schiff, Frankenstein (+2)

  5. Chloé Zhao and Affonso Gonçalves, Hamnet (-)
    —

  6. Stephen Mirrione, F1 (-2)

  7. Amir Etminan, It Was Just an Accident (NEW)

  8. Cristóbal Fernández, Sirât (NEW)

  9. Olivier Bugge Coutté, Sentimental Value (-1)

  10. James Cameron, Nicolas De Toth, John Refoua, David Brenner and Stephen E. Rivkin, Avatar: Fire and Ash (-3)

DROPPED
Myron Kerstein, Wicked: For Good (-2)
Kirk Baxter, A House of Dynamite (-1)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

  1. The team from Frankenstein (-)

  2. The team from Wicked: For Good (-)

  3. The team from Sinners (-)

  4. The team from The Smashing Machine (-)

  5. The team from Kokuho (NEW)
    —

  6. The team from Nuremberg (NEW)

  7. The team from One Battle After Another (+2)

  8. The team from Marty Supreme (NEW)

  9. The team from The Ugly Stepsister (NEW)

  10. The team from The Alto Knights (NEW)

DROPPED
The team from Weapons (-6)
The team from Kiss of the Spider Woman (-5)
The team from Bugonia (-3)
The team from Hamnet (-2)
The team from Song Sung Blue (-1)

Best Original Score

  1. Jonny Greenwood, One Battle After Another (-)

  2. Ludwig Göransson, Sinners (-)

  3. Max Richter, Hamnet (-)

  4. Alexandre Desplat, Frankenstein (-)

  5. Daniel Lopatin, Marty Supreme (+3)
    —

  6. Bryce Dessner, Train Dreams (NEW)

  7. Kangding Ray, Sirât (NEW)

  8. Stephen Schwartz and John Powell, Wicked: For Good (-2)

  9. Nicholas Britell, Jay Kelly (-2)

  10. Hildur Guðnadóttir, Hedda (-1)

DROPPED
Daniel Blumberg, The Testament of Ann Lee (-6)
Hania Rani, Sentimental Value (-1)

Best Original Song

  1. “Dear Me,” Diane Warren: Relentless (-)

  2. “Golden,” KPop Demon Hunters (-)

  3. “I Lied to You,” Sinners (-)

  4. “The Girl in the Bubble,” Wicked: For Good (-)

  5. “Last Time (I Seen the Sun),” Sinners (+1)
    —

  6. “Train Dreams,” Train Dreams (+2)

  7. “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet,” Come See Me in the Good Light (NEW)

  8. “No Place Like Home,” Wicked: For Good (-1)

  9. “Highest 2 Lowest,” Highest 2 Lowest (NEW)

  10. “Dream as One,” Avatar: Fire and Ash (-1)

DROPPED
”Clothed by the Sun,” The Testament of Ann Lee (-6)
“Zoo,” Zootopia 2 (-1)

Best Production Design

  1. Tamara Deverell and Shane Vieau, Frankenstein (+1)

  2. Hannah Beachler and Monique Champagne, Sinners (+1)

  3. Nathan Crowley and Lee Sandales, Wicked: For Good (-2)

  4. Jack Fisk and Adam Willis, Marty Supreme (+2)

  5. Fiona Crombie and Alice Felton, Hamnet (-)
    —

  6. Florencia Martin and Anthony Carlino, One Battle After Another (+1)

  7. Dylan Cole, Ben Procter and Vanessa Cole, Avatar: Fire and Ash (-3)

  8. Kasra Farahani and Jille Azis, The Fantastic Four: First Steps (NEW)

  9. Katia Wyszkop, Nouvelle Vague (-)

  10. Cara Bower and Stella Fox, Hedda (-)

DROPPED
Sam Bader, Lauren Doss and Mercédesz Nagyváradi, The Testament of Ann Lee (-3)

Best Sound

  1. The team from One Battle After Another (-)

  2. The team from Sinners (+2)

  3. The team from Frankenstein (+3)

  4. The team from Avatar: Fire and Ash (-2)

  5. The team from F1 (-)
    —

  6. The team from Wicked: For Good (-3)

  7. The team from Sirât (NEW)

  8. The team from Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (+1)

  9. The team from Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere (+1)

  10. The team from Superman (NEW)

DROPPED
The team from Marty Supreme (-4)
The team from Warfare (-3)

Best Visual Effects

  1. The team from Avatar: Fire and Ash (-)

  2. The team from Frankenstein (+1)

  3. The team from Sinners (+1)

  4. The team from Wicked: For Good (-2)

  5. The team from F1 (-)
    —

  6. The team from Superman (-)

  7. The team from Tron: Ares (+3)

  8. The team from Jurassic World Rebirth (NEW)

  9. The team from The Lost Bus (NEW)

  10. The team from The Electric State (NEW)

DROPPED
The team from How to Train Your Dragon (-4)
The team from The Fantastic Four: First Steps (-3)
The team from Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (-2)

December 21, 2025 /Andrew Carden
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