2018 Oscar Nomination Predictions (Summer Edition)

Too early for Oscar predictions? As if!

So much, of course, is bound to change over the coming months, as a slew of pictures, both big and small, hit theaters with awards season aspirations. There will be the Breathes, the Current Wars and the Detroits, those wannabe Oscar contenders that instead spectacularly fail. There will also be the sleepers, like Get Out and I, Tonya, with surprising success in store. And there will be the heartbreakers, like The Big Sick and The Florida Project, that aren't quite embraced on nominations morning as they should be.

At this point, so far out, nomination predictions are very much a shot in the dark. A handful of contenders have seen the light of day in theaters but the vast majority remain complete question marks.

A series of heavyweight filmmakers, including Damien Chazelle, Barry Jenkins, Mike Lee, Spike Lee and Steve McQueen, will come to play with pictures that, on paper at least, sound like potential knockouts, on the verge of feasting on awards season recognition. Of course, for all we know, Chazelle's First Man could turn out to be a dud.

There are also countless Oscar favorite actors, among them Christian Bale, Russell Crowe, Viola Davis, Nicole Kidman and Robert Redford, on the hunt for additional nominations to their IMDb pages.

There are a plethora of questions to be answered. Will the latest remake of A Star Is Born live up to its sky-high hype and, moreover, can Lady Gaga really land a Best Actress nom? Is Orson Welles' The Other Side of the Wind a dark horse that could turn the entire race on its head? (Imagine Mercedes McCambridge as a Best Supporting Actress contender!) Will the Academy at last embrace a Spike Lee picture in a significant way? And, perhaps most important of all, is this finally Glenn Close's year?

Those inquiries and so many more shall soon be answered. For now, however, let's take the roughest of stabs at this. Below you'll find my first Oscar nomination predictions of the year, ranked from most to least likely to be recognized. There are a handful of categories, including Best Documentary Feature, Best Foreign Language Film, Best Original Song and the short subjects, that I'll hold off on for a bit.

Of course, I encourage you to comment with your own thoughts as well. My next set of predictions shall land sometime in September.

Happy almost-Oscar season! :)

Best Picture

1. First Man
2. Beautiful Boy
3. If Beale Street Could Talk
4. A Star Is Born
5. Mary, Queen of Scots
6. Boy Erased
7. BlackKKlansman
8. Widows
9. The Favourite
   ---
10. Peterloo
11. On the Basis of Sex
12. Black Panther
13. Backseat
14. The Front Runner
15. The Other Side of the Wind

Best Director

1. Damien Chazelle, First Man
2. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk
3. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
4. Steve McQueen, Widows
5. Spike Lee, BlackKKlansman
   ---
6. Mike Leigh, Peterloo
7. Felix Van Groeningen, Beautiful Boy
8. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther
9. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
10. Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased

Best Leading Actor

1. Steve Carell, Beautiful Boy
2. Ryan Gosling, First Man
3. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
4. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased
5. Robert Redford, The Old Man and the Gun
   ---
6. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity's Gate
7. Christian Bale, Backseat
8. Hugh Jackman, The Front Runner
9. Stephan James, If Beale Street Could Talk
10. John David Washington, BlackKKlansman

Best Leading Actress

1. Saoirse Ronan, Mary, Queen of Scots
2. Viola Davis, Widows
3. Glenn Close, The Wife
4. Kiki Layne, If Beale Street Could Talk
5. Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex
   ---
6. Toni Collette, Hereditary
7. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
8. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
9. Emma Stone, The Favourite
10. Charlize Theron, Tully

Best Supporting Actor

1. Timothee Chamalet, Beautiful Boy
2. Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born
3. Adam Driver, BlackKKlansman
4. Russell Crowe, Boy Erased
5. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows
   ---
6. Sam Rockwell, Backseat
7. J.K. Simmons, The Front Runner
8. Armie Hammer, On the Basis of Sex
9. Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased
10. Robert Forster, What They Had

Best Supporting Actress

1. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased
2. Margot Robbie, Mary, Queen of Scots
3. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
4. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
5. Claire Foy, First Man
   ---
6. Olivia Colman, The Favourite
7. Amy Adams, Backseat
8. Michelle Rodriguez, Widows
9. Sissy Spacek, The Old Man and the Gun
10. Kathy Bates, On the Basis of Sex

Best Original Screenplay

1. Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara, The Favourite
2. Mike Leigh, Peterloo
3. Adam McKay, Backseat
4. Daniel Stiepleman, On the Basis of Sex
5. Oja Kodar and Orson Welles, The Other Side of the Wind
   ---
6. Jean-Claude Carriere and Julian Schnabel, At Eternity's Gate
7. Jonah Hill, Mid '90s
8. Bo Burnham, Eighth Grade
9. Diablo Cody, Tully
10. Boots Riley, Sorry to Bother You

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk
2. Spike Lee, David Rabinowitz, Charlie Wachtel and Kevin Willmott, BlackKKlansman
3. Luke Davies, Beautiful Boy
4. Nicole Perman and Josh Singer, First Man
5. Gillian Flynn and Steve McQueen, Widows
   ---
6. Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased
7. Beau Willimon, Mary, Queen of Scots
8. Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters, Irene Mecchi, Stephen J. Rivele, Eric Roth and Christopher Wilkinson, A Star Is Born
9. Matt Bai, Jay Carson and Jason Reitman, The Front Runner
10. Jane Anderson, The Wife

Best Animated Feature

1. The Incredibles 2
2. Isle of Dogs
3. Smallfoot
4. Wreck-It-Ralph 2
5. Fireworks
   ---
6. The Grinch
7. Mirai
8. Spider-Man: Into the Spider Verse
9. Lu Over the Wall
10. Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation

Best Cinematography

1. James Laxton, If Beale Street Could Talk
2. Matthew Libatique, A Star Is Born
3. Sean Bobbitt, Widows
4. Robbie Ryan, The Favourite
5. Linus Sandgren, First Man
   ---
6. Dick Pope, Peterloo
7. John Mathieson, Mary, Queen of Scots
8. Hoyte Van Hoytema, Ad Astra
9. Rachel Morrison, Black Panther
10. Ruben Impens, Beautiful Boy

Best Costume Design

1. Alexandra Byrne, Mary, Queen of Scots
2. Colleen Atwood, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
3. Sandy Powell, The Favourite
4. Jacqueline Durran, Peterloo
5. Jenny Beavan, The Nutcracker and the Four Realms
   ---
6. Andrea Flesch, Colette
7. Sandy Powell, Mary Poppins Returns
8. Mary Zophres, First Man
9. Ruth E. Carter, Black Panther
10. Joanna Johnston, Welcome to Marwen

Best Film Editing

1. Joi McMillon and Nat Sanders, If Beale Street Could Talk
2. Jay Cassidy, A Star Is Born
3. Joe Walker, Widows
4. Tom Cross, First Man
5. Barry Alexander Brown, BlackKKlansman
   ---
6. Sam Sneade, The Favourite
7. Chris Dickens, Mary, Queen of Scots
8. Debbie Berman and Michael P. Shawver, Black Panther
9. Stephen Mirrione, Beautiful Boy
10. Bob Murawski and Orson Welles, The Other Side of the Wind

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Mary, Queen of Scots
2. The Favourite
3. Peterloo
   ---
4. Backseat
5. Black Panther
6. At Eternity's Gate
7. Solo: A Star Wars Story
8. Deadpool 2
9. Suspiria
10. First Man

Best Original Score

1. Justin Hurwitz, First Man
2. Nicholas Britell, If Beale Street Could Talk
3. Terence Blanchard, BlackKKlansman
4. Max Richter, Mary, Queen of Scots
5. Alexandre Desplat, Isle of Dogs
   ---
6. Marc Shaiman and Scott Wittman, Mary Poppins Returns
7. James Newton Howard, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
8. Michael Giacchino, The Incredibles 2
9. Alan Silvestri, Ready Player One
10. Pino Donaggio, Domino

Best Production Design

1. Gina Cromwell and James Merifield, Mary, Queen of Scots
2. Fiona Crombie and Alice Felton, The Favourite
3. John Myrhe and Gordon Sim, Mary Poppins Returns
4. Stuart Craig and Anna Pinnock, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
5. Lisa Chung and Guy Hendrix Dyas, The Nutcracker and the Four Realms
   ---
6. Paul Harrod and Adam Stockhausen, Isle of Dogs
7. Hannah Beachler and Jay Hart, Black Panther
8. Nathan Crowley and Kathy Lucas, First Man
9. Inbal Weinberg, Suspiria
10. Suzie Davies and Charlotte Watts, Peterloo

Best Sound Editing

1. A Star Is Born
2. First Man
3. Mission: Impossible - Fallout
4. Avengers: Infinity War
5. Ad Astra
   ---
6. Black Panther
7. The Incredibles 2
8. Ready Player One
9. Widows
10. Solo: A Star Wars Story

Best Sound Mixing

1. A Star Is Born
2. First Man
3. The Incredibles 2
4. Widows
5. Ad Astra
   ---
6. Black Panther
7. Avengers: Infinity War
8. Mission: Impossible - Fallout
9. Mary Poppins Returns
10. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms

Best Visual Effects

1. First Man
2. Avengers: Infinity War
3. Ready Player One
4. Ad Astra
5. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
   ---
6. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms
7. Black Panther
8. Mowgli
9. Solo: A Star Wars Story
10. Deadpool 2

Review: "Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom"

I would say the thrill is gone but, let's be honest, there hasn't been a whole lot of movie magic in the Jurassic Park franchise since Sam Neill, Laura Dern and a dynamite supporting cast had a field day 25 years ago.

The Lost World: Jurassic Park is perhaps the worst of all Steven Spielberg-directed pictures (at least 1941 is an ambitious failure), while I kinda-sorta get a kick out of Jurassic Park 3 and Jurassic World for low-brow thrills. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, the latest entry in this increasingly ear-piercing franchise, operates at roughly the same middling level as those two latter films. If hardly a snooze, there's not a hint of inspiration to be found.

Less a family-friendly adventure than an unhinged monster movie, director J.A. Bayona veers the series into a more cataclysmic, violent direction and the results are only intermittently diverting. 

It's been three years since the ferocious chaos over at the Jurassic World theme park, which has left abandoned the island of Isla Nublar. Stateside, Congress is debating whether the remaining dinosaurs on the island should be rescued from an imminent volcanic eruption. Claire Dearing (Bryce Dallas Howard), the park's former operations manager, has spearheaded a non-profit organization dedicated to saving reptiles and, when the government ultimately passes on such a mission, she is recruited by Benjamin Lockwood (James Cromwell), a former colleague of John Hammond's (Richard Attenborough), to embark on an expedition to move the dinosaurs to a new island sanctuary. 

Concerned Blue, the last remaining Velociraptor, will be difficult to locate, Claire convinces Owen Grady (Chris Pratt), Blue's former trainer, to join her and the crew on the mission. Upon arrival on Isla Nublar, things don't go quite as expected for Claire and Owen, who are greeted by a by a savage crew of mercenaries with more monetary intentions in mind. They've been hired by Eli Mills (Rafe Spall), Lockwood's malicious assistant, to sedate and capture the dinosaurs and bring them back to the states for auction. 

That volcano, no surprise, does erupt, but not before a handful of the reptiles have been captured and voyaged back to the U.S. Claire and Owen sneak their way back to the Lockwood estate, which, before long, becomes a house of horrors, as the latest genetically engineered dinosaur, the Indoraptor, escapes and has no hesitation to inflict carnage on everything and everyone in its path.

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom offers no shortage of stimulating set pieces but even its best sequences feel familiar and devoid of real imagination. Where Howard is stronger here than the first time around, Pratt looks bored, this screenplay not providing him the same opportunity as the first to constantly charm and quip his way through the proceedings. The supporting cast is uniformly underused, the most egregious instance being the great Geraldine Chaplin, relegated to the most underwritten of roles. 

If not the abomination of The Lost World: Jurassic Park, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom still mostly underwhelms and, more than ever, calls into question the sustainability of this flimsy franchise.

B-

Review: "Won't You Be My Neighbor?"

It feels like not long ago at all that I was a young lad, sitting in front of the tube, absolutely mesmerized by Mr. Rogers' Neighborhood.

Perhaps unlike many fellow fans of my age, I was actually vastly more enchanted with Fred Rogers himself than the puppeteering of his Neighborhood of Make-Believe. During those latter segments, I mostly zoned out, whereas I was downright entranced by Mr. Rogers and his direct, honest and affectionate rapport with me, the viewer. (In my area, PBS aired the program right after CBS did The Price Is Right, so I guess you could say my formative years were spent idolizing Mr. Rogers and Bob Barker.)

Fives decades since the premiere of Mr. Rogers' Neighborhood, and falling the same year Rogers would have celebrated his 90th birthday, Won't You Be My Neighbor?, the latest picture from Morgan Neville (whose Best of Enemies: Buckley vs. Vidal and the Oscar-winning 20 Feet from Stardom are among the best documentaries from recent years), wholeheartedly does the TV legend justice. It's an absorbing, entertaining and deeply affecting look at a man whose kindness and empathy are sorely missed in this trainwreck of times.

Won't You Be My Neighbor? traces Rogers' entry into the modest world of children's television in the 1950s. While trained and ordained as a minster, Rogers is perplexed by the limited and lackluster small screen offerings for kids, programs that generally consist of lame slapstick comedy, pies thrown in faces, clowns haphazardly dancing before the camera, etc. He partakes as a puppeteer in The Children's Corner, a new local children's television program in Pittsburgh, and, though he sticks with the show for several years, ultimately finds the proceedings don't quite live up to the superior vision he has in mind. 

So, Rogers develops a new program, which, over the 1960s, slowly but surely generates attention and acclaim, not just in Pittsburgh but nationally. Unlike most of the garbage infiltrating the airwaves and directed at children, Mr. Rogers' Neighborhood is a thoughtful, warmhearted program that never for a second dumbs itself down for its audience. It also delicately touches upon issues that countless parents undoubtedly haven't a clue how to discuss with their kids. 

Among the most striking moments of Won't You Be My Neighbor? is Rogers' testimony before the United States Senate in 1969. President Nixon has proposed deep budget cuts, including toward funding for PBS and the Corporation for Public Broadcasting. Rogers speaks before the Senate committee, his comments particularly directed at the chairman, Senator John Pastore. Pastore, at this point unmoved by pleas for retain such funding, is ultimately completely won over by Rogers, who speaks to the important of social and emotional education through public television. He even recites lyrics to one of his songs from the show. Pastore's reponse? "Looks like you just earned the $20 million."

Such is among countless moments to treasure in this documentary. His friendship with Francois Clemmons, the African-American vocalist who for more than two decades portrayed Officer Clemmons on the program - one of the first black performers to have a recurring role on a children's television series - is fascinating and we're also treated to a plethora of insightful interviews with Rogers' cast and crew, plus his delightful wife Joanne.

I suspect Rogers himself would have been quite pleased with this project. It's a perceptive and compelling picture, never mawkish, yet immensely poignant. Watching this film and spending an hour and a half with the man, it's hard not to feel some sense of sadness that Rogers isn't around right now, in times sorely lacking his gentleness and understanding. While I'm not exactly attune to today's offerings, I suspect the bulk of current children's television doesn't quite operate on the same level as Rogers' efforts.

More now than ever, we need a little Mr. Rogers' Neighborhood in our lives. 

A

Review: "Hereditary"

Oh, what a pleasure it is to see Toni Collette right where she belongs, on the big screen, in a leading role worthy of her sky-high talents.

Collette, who should've won that Best Supporting Actress Oscar for her devastating turn in The Sixth Sense, has a field day in her latest picture, filmmaker Ari Aster's dizzying horror flick Hereditary. Right up there with the legendary likes of Mia Farrow in Rosemary's Baby and Shelley Duvall in The Shining, this is one of the all-time great performances to grace this genre.

In the film, Collette portrays Annie Graham, wife to Steve (Gabriel Byrne) and mom to teenage son Peter (Alex Wolff) and younger daughter Charlie (Milly Shapiro). Annie is kinda-sorta grieving over the recent loss of her estranged mother Ellen - they weren't terribly close and, as we soon discover, Ellen put her family through a whole lot of hell, especially Annie's brother, who ultimately committed suicide. 

When tragedy strikes another member of the Graham clan, Annie finds herself drawn to Joan (Ann Dowd), a member of a support group she has joined. Joan, who lost both her son and grandson, has been communicating with the latter through a seance. Annie, to the great chagrin of her family, decides she'll do the same at home - and what a poor decision that is, as the house becomes ravaged by malevolent supernatural forces that threaten to bring every Graham down. 

I'm hoping to steer clear of spoilers but let's just say fans of Rosemary's Baby, Poltergeist and The Exorcist are bound to have a blast with Hereditary. Aster has no doubt been inspired by the classics, without ever resorting to rip anything off. The film looks incredible, photographed by Pawel Pogorzelski, and Aster's screenplay, while a sad and scary affair for the most part, hardly lacks a sense of humor. Only the picture's ending doesn't quite satisfy, playing as curiously silly vis a vis the genuine horrors that precede it.

What's especially stirring here is the acting - Collette has never been better and she's matched by an ensemble also operating at the tops of their game. Byrne's understated approach gels nicely with Collette's hysterics, while Dowd is an irresistible, if unsettling delight. Both Wolff and Shapiro effectively contribute to the film's spine-chilling atmosphere.

Hereditary won't be everyone's cup of tea and I do fear its conclusion could overshadow the rest of the proceedings for some. That said, I doubt we'll be encountering another picture this genuinely terrifying over the remainder of 2018.

A-

Review: "First Reformed"

Oh, how I expected and wanted to love Paul Schrader's First Reformed.

I consider Schrader one of the finest screenwriters of the past half-century, his contributions especially to the likes of The Yakuza, Obsession, Taxi Driver and Bringing Out the Dead exemplary examples of his genius on the page. While Schrader's directorial efforts have proven decidedly more scattershot, rarely does he bore and, on occasion, he has delivered a real knockout, with Affliction perhaps being his masterpiece.

The thought of Schrader teaming with Ethan Hawke, an actor I've admired in many pictures, from Reality Bates to Richard Linklater's Before trilogy, for me set expectations rather high for their collaboration on First Reformed, a film that looked positively spine-tingling in its trailer.

Alas, I left First Reformed floored with the contributions of merely one of these two men. For while Hawke's performance as the despondent Father Toller is a truly mesmerizing portrayal, among the actor's most startling work to date, the film around him is a meandering slog that rarely suggests the brilliance of Schrader's past work. 

Hawke's Toller is the pastor of a microscopic church in upstate New York. Still beside himself over the death of his son, Toller has descended into alcoholism and chosen to ignore the illness that is undoubtedly ravaging his body. Toller is sleepwalking through life until the entrance of Mary (Amanda Seyfried). Mary is pregnant with the son of Michael (Philip Ettinger), an environmentalist who can't bear the thought of bringing a child into a world he views as doomed. 

Toller finds himself consumed with reflection on Michael's concerns and is all the more rattled by the discovery of a suicide vest in the couple's garage, shortly followed by Michael's suicide. His health gradually failing and dependency on booze increasing, Toller continues to counsel Mary while also finding himself at odds with Edward Balq (Michael Gaston), a chemical magnate concerned with Toller's newfound interest in environmental causes.

First Reformed is beautifully shot by Alexander Dynan and has that same unbearably dreary look and feel of prior, superior Schrader works. Hawke does heaps of heavy lifting but in the end, Schrader's curiously uninvolving script and the plodding pace of the proceedings left me on the verge of dozing off. The picture may be more dignified than the flamboyant likes of American Gigolo and Cat People but it isn't remotely as compelling.

Hawke's committed turn aside, First Reformed is a monotonous miss.

C+