2018 Oscar Nomination Predictions (October)

How’s it hanging, my fellow Oscar lovers?

Over the past month, since my September predictions. a host of developments have transpired in this roller coaster ride of an awards season:

• Trailers dropped for a handful of Oscar contenders, including Capernaum; Mary Poppins Returns; Stan & Ollie; and Vice.

• Warner Bros. announced The Mule, the latest picture from Clint Eastwood, will make the cut for Oscar consideration with a December release date. The film also stars Bradley Cooper, Michael Pena and the all-around amazing Dianne Wiest.

• Speaking of Cooper, his A Star Is Born, as generally expected, is making a killing at the box office following a gangbusters festival run and marvelous reviews. Much as I enjoyed the picture, it still doesn’t strike me as likely to completely steamroll this awards season, as some pundits seem convinced.

• Amazon Pictures moved Mike Leigh’s Peterloo out of 2018 awards consideration. The film will now be released in April.

• In a move surely designed to help Black Panther, Disney announced Avengers: Infinity War will solely earn an Oscar push in Best Visual Effects.

• After being missing in action at the Telluride, Toronto and Venice Film Festivals, Mary Queen of Scots and On the Basis of Sex will at last see the light of day at the AFI Fest in November.

• Willem Dafoe, Rachel Weisz and Paul Greengrass were named honorees for the upcoming Gotham Awards. All three - with At Eternity’s End, The Favourite and 22 July - are Oscar hopefuls.

• John Krasinski’s critical and commercial smash A Quiet Place released For Your Consideration ads in its underdog bid for awards season recognition. I was plenty fond of the pic but can’t help but suspect it’ll be forgotten and/or not taken seriously by the bulk of voters.

No doubt, I'm forgetting something of significance that recently went down.

Please see below my latest set of Oscar predictions, for the month of October. In parentheses you will find how many spots a contender has moved up or down since my last rankings. In some cases, I have dropped a film or performer entirely. I am still holding off on predictions in the shorts, as well as Best Original Song.

Have fun reading and, as always, feel free to comment with your own thoughts too!

Best Picture

1. First Man (-)

2. A Star Is Born (-)

3. Roma (+1)

4. If Beale Street Could Talk (-1)

5. Green Book (+5)

6. The Favourite (-1)

7. BlacKkKlansman (-)

8. Widows (-2)
   —

9. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (-)

10. Vice (-2)

11. Black Panther (+4)

12. The Mule (NEW)

13. Mary Queen of Scots (-1)

14. Crazy Rich Asians (-)

15. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (NEW)

DROPPED
The Incredibles 2 (-6)
Boy Erased (-3)

Best Director

1. Damien Chazelle, First Man (-)

2. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (-)

3. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (+1)

4. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (-1)

5. Steve McQueen, Widows (-)
   —

6. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (-)

7. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (-)

8. Adam McKay, Vice (-)

9. Clint Eastwood, The Mule (NEW)

10. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (-1)

DROPPED
Orson Welles, The Other Side of the Wind (-1)

Best Leading Actor

1. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (+1)

2. Ryan Gosling, First Man (-1)

3. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity's Gate (-)

4. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book (NEW)

5. Christian Bale, Vice (-)
   —

6. Robert Redford, The Old Man and the Gun (-2)

7. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (-1)

8. Clint Eastwood, The Mule (NEW)

9. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (NEW)

10. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman (-)

DROPPED
Mahershala Ali, Green Book (-4)
Steve Carell, Beautiful Boy (-3)
Stephan James, If Beale Street Could Talk (-2)

Best Leading Actress

1. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (-)

2. Glenn Close, The Wife (+2)

3. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (+2)

4. Viola Davis, Widows (-)

5. Emma Stone, The Favourite (+1)
   —

6. Yalitza Aparcio, Roma (NEW)

7. Kiki Layne, If Beale Street Could Talk (+1)

8. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (-5)

9. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (-2)

10. Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots (-1)

DROPPED
Toni Collette, Hereditary (-1)

Best Supporting Actor

1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (NEW)

2. Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born (-1)

3. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (+1)

4. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (-2)

5. Stephan James, If Beale Street Could Talk (NEW)
   —

6. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (-3)

7. Sam Rockwell, Vice (-2)

8. Russell Crowe, Boy Erased (-2)

9. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (-1)

10. Robert Forster, What They Had (-)

DROPPED
John C. Reilly, Stan and Ollie (-4)
Ben Foster, Leave No Trace (-3)

Best Supporting Actress

1. Claire Foy, First Man (-)

2. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (-)

3. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (+1)

4. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (-1)

5. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (+1)
   —

6. Sissy Spacek, The Old Man and the Gun (+1)

7. Amy Adams, Vice (-2)

8. Natalie Portman, Vox Lux (-)

9. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots (-)

10. Kathy Bates, On the Basis of Sex (-)

Best Original Screenplay

1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (+1)

2. Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara, The Favourite (-1)

3. Brian Hayes Currie, Peter Farrelly and Nick Vallelonga, Green Book (+4)

4. Joel and Ethan Coen, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (NEW)

5. Jonah Hill, Mid '90s (+1)
   —

6. Adam McKay, Vice (-3)

7. Jean-Claude Carriere and Julian Schnabel, At Eternity's Gate (-3)

8. Jihad Hojeily, Michelle Keserwany, Nadine Labaki and Khaled Mouzanar, Capernaum (NEW)

9. Bo Burnham, Eighth Grade (-)

10. Daniel Stiepleman, On the Basis of Sex (-)

DROPPED
Mike Leigh, Peterloo (-6)
Oja Kodar and Orson Welles, The Other Side of the Wind (-3)

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (-)

2. Spike Lee, David Rabinowitz, Charlie Wachtel and Kevin Willmott, BlacKkKlansman (+2)

3. Josh Singer, First Man (-1)

4. Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters, Irene Mecchi, Stephen J. Rivele, Eric Roth and Christopher Wilkinson, A Star Is Born (-1)

5. Nicole Holofcener, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (-)
   —

6. Gillian Flynn and Steve McQueen, Widows (-)

7. Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased (+1)

8. David Lowery, The Old Man and the Gun (-1)

9. Beau Willimon, Mary Queen of Scots (+1)

10. Jon Robert Cole and Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (NEW)

DROPPED
Luke Davies, Beautiful Boy (-2)

Best Animated Feature

1. The Incredibles 2 (-)

2. Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck-It-Ralph 2 (+1)

3. Isle of Dogs (+1)

4. Lu Over the Wall (+3)

5. Smallfoot (-4)
   —

6. Fireworks (-1)

7. Mirai (-1)

8. The Grinch (+1)

9. Tito and the Birds (NEW)

10. Spider-Man: Into the Spider Verse (-)

DROPPED
Teen Titans Go! to the Movies (-3)

Best Documentary Feature

1. RBG (-)

2. Three Identical Strangers (-)

3. King in the Wilderness (-)

4. Won’t You Be My Neighbor? (-)

5. The Oslo Diaries (-)
   —

6. The Silence of Others (-)

7. Inventing Tomorrow (-)

8. The Price of Everything (NEW)

9. Fahrenheit 11/9 (-)

10. Jane Fonda in Five Acts (-2)

DROPPED
Love, Gilda (-1)

Best Foreign Language Film

1. Roma (Mexico) (-)

2. Capernaum (Lebanon) (+1)

3. Never Look Away (Germany) (+1)

4. Cold War (Poland) (-2)

5. Sunset (Hungary) (-)
   —

6. Shoplifters (Japan) (NEW)

7. Border (Sweden) (+1)

8. Girl (Belgium) (-2)

9. The Interpreter (Slovakia) (-)

10. Ghost Hunting (Palestine) (NEW)

DROPPED
Loro (Italy) (-3)
La Familia (Venezuela) (-2)

Best Cinematography

1. Matthew Libatique, A Star Is Born (-)

2. Linus Sandgren, First Man (-)

3. James Laxton, If Beale Street Could Talk (-)

4. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (-)

5. Robbie Ryan, The Favourite (-)
   —

6. Sean Bobbitt, Widows (-)

7. Rachel Morrison, Black Panther (+1)

8. Caleb Deschanel, Never Look Away (NEW)

9. Christopher Aoun, Capernaum (NEW)

10. Bruno Delbonnel, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (-)

DROPPED
Hoyte Van Hoytema, Ad Astra (-4)
Dick Pope, Peterloo (-2)

Best Costume Design

1. Sandy Powell, The Favourite (-)

2. Sandy Powell, Mary Poppins Returns (+1)

3. Colleen Atwood, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (-1)

4. Mary Zophres, First Man (+1)

5. Andrea Flesch, Colette (-1)
   —

6. Alexandra Byrne, Mary Queen of Scots (-)

7. Ruth E. Carter, Black Panther (-)

8. Guy Speranza, Stan and Ollie (+1)

9. Jenny Beavan, The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (+1)

10. Caroline Eselin, If Beale Street Could Talk (NEW)

DROPPED
Jacqueline Durran, Peterloo (-3)

Best Film Editing

1. Tom Cross, First Man (-)

2. Jay Cassidy, A Star Is Born (-)

3. Alfonso Cuaron and Adam Gough, Roma (+2)

4. Joe Walker, Widows (-1)

5. Joi McMillon and Nat Sanders, If Beale Street Could Talk (-1)
   —

6. Barry Alexander Brown, BlacKkKlansman (-)

7. Sam Sneade, The Favourite (-)

8. Hank Corwin, Vice (-)

9. Debbie Berman and Michael P. Shawver, Black Panther (-)

10. William Goldenberg, 22 July (NEW)

DROPPED
John Axelrad and Lee Haugen, Ad Astra (-1)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Vice (-)

2. The Favourite (-)

3. Stan and Ollie (-)
   —

4. Mary Queen of Scots (-)

5. At Eternity's Gate (-)

6. Colette (NEW)

7. Deadpool 2 (-)

8. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (-)

9. Black Panther (-3)

10. Suspiria (-)

DROPPED
Peterloo (-5)

Best Original Score

1. Justin Hurwitz, First Man (-)

2. Nicholas Britell, If Beale Street Could Talk (-)

3. Terence Blanchard, BlacKkKlansman (-)

4. Marc Shaiman and Scott Wittman, Mary Poppins Returns (-)

5. Alexandre Desplat, Isle of Dogs (-)
   —

6. Hans Zimmer, Widows (+2)

7. James Newton Howard, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (-1)

8. Michael Giacchino, The Incredibles 2 (-1)

9. Nicholas Britell, Vice (NEW)

10. Michel Legrand, The Other Side of the Wind (-)

DROPPED
Alexandre Desplat, The Sisters Brothers (-2)

Best Production Design

1. Fiona Crombie and Alice Felton, The Favourite (-)

2. John Myrhe and Gordon Sim, Mary Poppins Returns (-)

3. Stuart Craig and Anna Pinnock, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (-)

4. Nathan Crowley and Kathy Lucas, First Man (-)

5. Lisa Chung and Guy Hendrix Dyas, The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (-)
   —

6. Gina Cromwell and James Merifield, Mary Queen of Scots (-)

7. Paul Harrod and Adam Stockhausen, Isle of Dogs (-)

8. Stephan Cressend and Cecile Vatelot, At Eternity’s Gate (-)

9. Hannah Beachler and Jay Hart, Black Panther (-)

10. Michael Carlin, Lisa Chugg and Nora Talmaier, Colette (NEW)

DROPPED
Suzie Davies and Charlotte Watts, Peterloo (-1)

Best Sound Editing

1. A Star Is Born (-)

2. First Man (-)

3. Mission: Impossible - Fallout (+1)

4. Black Panther (+2)

5. Mary Poppins Returns (+5)
   —

6. Bohemian Rhapsody (NEW)

7. Ready Player One (-)

8. The Incredibles 2 (-)

9. Widows (-)

10. 22 July (NEW)

DROPPED
Avengers: Infinity War (-8)
Ad Astra (-6)

Best Sound Mixing

1. A Star Is Born (-)

2. First Man (-)

3. The Incredibles 2 (-)

4. Widows (-)

5. Mary Poppins Returns (+4)
   —

6. Bohemian Rhapsody (NEW)

7. Black Panther (-)

8. Mission: Impossible - Fallout (-)

9. Roma (NEW)

10. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (-)

DROPPED
Avengers: Infinity War (-6)
Ad Astra (-5)

Best Visual Effects

1. First Man (-)

2. Avengers: Infinity War (-)

3. Ready Player One (-)

4. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (+1)

5. Black Panther (+1)
   —

6. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (-1)

7. A Wrinkle in Time (+1)

8. Deadpool 2 (+1)

9. Isle of Dogs (NEW)

10. Solo: A Star Wars Story (-)

DROPPED
Ad Astra (-7)

Review: "The Old Man & the Gun"

Nearly four decades ago, at the 53rd Academy Awards, Robert Redford and Sissy Spacek had their ultimate moments in the Oscar spotlight as the director and star of Ordinary People and Coal Miner’s Daughter, respectively. Redford scored honors for his filmmaking - and his directorial debut won Best Picture to boot - while Spacek earned Best Actress, to date her lone victory at the Oscars.

Inexplicably, these two titans of the big screen had never teamed up for a motion picture over their storied careers in cinema - that is, until now.

Watching David Lowery’s leisurely The Old Man & the Gun, based on David Grann’s 2003 article from The New Yorker, one wishes Redford and Spacek had collaborated at least half a dozen times prior. They make an absolutely irresistible duo, sporting an enchanting rapport guaranteed to make your heart flutter and plant a gigantic smile on your face.

Redford is Forrest Tucker, the charming career criminal who cannot get enough of robbing banks, escaping prison and doing the whole thing all over again. Spacek is Jewel, the fetching widow who leads the coziest of lives on her horse farm and is taken instantly with the 70-year-old culprit. At first, Jewel cannot even believe Forrest’s story but, over time, is able to overlook her companion’s wrongdoings - heck, even the bank employees he’s robbing have nothing but kind things to say about this gentleman.

If The Old Man & the Gun were exclusively focused on Redford and Spacek, it would be a pitch-perfect endeavor. Alas, there’s a detective on Forrest’s heels and he’s portrayed by Casey Affleck, in a lifeless performance that makes his Oscar-winning turn in Manchester by the Sea look positively giddy. The Affleck scenes feel curiously incomplete, as if much material was left on the cutting room floor. Wonderful actors like Keith Carradine and John David Washington (so fantastic earlier this year in BlackKklansman) linger in the background, sans much of anything to do. As Forrest’s longtime partners in crime, Danny Glover and Tom Waits have a tad more to do but too feel rather underutilized.

With that said, The Old Man & the Gun remains a must-see for the beauty that oozes out of the screen anytime Redford and Spacek grace it. You won’t find another film couple so downright adorable this awards season.

B+

2018 Foreign Language Film Oscar Submissions

This year, 87 countries have submitted pictures for Oscar consideration in Best Foreign Language Film:

Afghanistan, “Rona Azim’s Mother,” Jamshid Mahmoudi, director;

Algeria, “Until the End of Time,” Yasmine Chouikh, director;

Argentina, “El Ángel,” Luis Ortega, director;

Armenia, “Spitak,” Alexander Kott, director;

Australia, “Jirga,” Benjamin Gilmour, director;

Austria, “The Waldheim Waltz,” Ruth Beckermann, director;

Bangladesh, “No Bed of Roses,” Mostofa Sarwar Farooki, director;

Belarus, “Crystal Swan,” Darya Zhuk, director;

Belgium, “Girl,” Lukas Dhont, director;

Bolivia, “The Goalkeeper,” Rodrigo “Gory” Patiño, director;

Bosnia and Herzegovina, “Never Leave Me,” Aida Begić, director;

Brazil, “The Great Mystical Circus,” Carlos Diegues, director;

Bulgaria, “Omnipresent,” Ilian Djevelekov, director;

Cambodia, “Graves without a Name,” Rithy Panh, director;

Canada, “Family Ties,” Sophie Dupuis, director;

Chile, “…And Suddenly the Dawn,” Silvio Caiozzi, director;

China, “Hidden Man,” Jiang Wen, director;

Colombia, “Birds of Passage,” Cristina Gallego, Ciro Guerra, directors;

Costa Rica, “Medea,” Alexandra Latishev, director;

Croatia, “The Eighth Commissioner,” Ivan Salaj, director;

Czech Republic, “Winter Flies,” Olmo Omerzu, director;

Denmark, “The Guilty,” Gustav Möller, director;

Dominican Republic, “Cocote,” Nelson Carlo De Los Santos Arias, director;

Ecuador, “A Son of Man,” Jamaicanoproblem, director;

Egypt, “Yomeddine,” A.B. Shawky, director;

Estonia, “Take It or Leave It,” Liina Trishkina-Vanhatalo, director;

Finland, “Euthanizer,” Teemu Nikki, director;

France, “Memoir of War,” Emmanuel Finkiel, director;

Georgia, “Namme,” Zaza Khalvashi, director;

Germany, “Never Look Away,” Florian Henckel von Donnersmarck, director;

Greece, “Polyxeni,” Dora Masklavanou, director;

Hong Kong, “Operation Red Sea,” Dante Lam, director;

Hungary, “Sunset,” László Nemes, director;

Iceland, “Woman at War,” Benedikt Erlingsson, director;

India, “Village Rockstars,” Rima Das, director;

Indonesia, “Marlina the Murderer in Four Acts,” Mouly Surya, director;

Iran, “No Date, No Signature,” Vahid Jalilvand, director;

Iraq, “The Journey,” Mohamed Jabarah Al-Daradji, director;

Israel, “The Cakemaker,” Ofir Raul Graizer, director;

Italy, “Dogman,” Matteo Garrone, director;

Japan, “Shoplifters,” Hirokazu Kore-eda, director;

Kazakhstan, “Ayka,” Sergey Dvortsevoy, director;

Kenya, “Supa Modo,” Likarion Wainaina, director;

Kosovo, “The Marriage,” Blerta Zeqiri, director;

Latvia, “To Be Continued,” Ivars Seleckis, director;

Lebanon, “Capernaum,” Nadine Labaki, director;

Lithuania, “Wonderful Losers: A Different World,” Arunas Matelis, director;

Luxembourg, “Gutland,” Govinda Van Maele, director;

Macedonia, “Secret Ingredient,” Gjorce Stavreski, director;

Malawi, “The Road to Sunrise,” Shemu Joyah, director;

Mexico, “Roma,” Alfonso Cuarón, director;

Montenegro, “Iskra,” Gojko Berkuljan, director;

Morocco, “Burnout,” Nour-Eddine Lakhmari, director;

Nepal, “Panchayat,” Shivam Adhikari, director;

Netherlands, “The Resistance Banker,” Joram Lürsen, director;

New Zealand, “Yellow Is Forbidden,” Pietra Brettkelly, director;

Niger, “The Wedding Ring,” Rahmatou Keïta, director;

Norway, “What Will People Say,” Iram Haq, director;

Pakistan, “Cake,” Asim Abbasi, director;

Palestine, “Ghost Hunting,” Raed Andoni, director;

Panama, “Ruben Blades Is Not My Name,” Abner Benaim, director;

Paraguay, “The Heiresses,” Marcelo Martinessi, director;

Peru, “Eternity,” Oscar Catacora, director;

Philippines, “Signal Rock,” Chito S. Roño, director;

Poland, “Cold War,” Pawel Pawlikowski, director;

Portugal, “Pilgrimage,” João Botelho, director;

Romania, “I Do Not Care If We Go Down in History as Barbarians,” Radu Jude, director; 

Russia, “Sobibor,” Konstantin Khabensky, director;

Serbia, “Offenders,” Dejan Zecevic, director;

Singapore, “Buffalo Boys,” Mike Wiluan, director;

Slovakia, “The Interpreter,” Martin Šulík, director;

Slovenia, “Ivan,” Janez Burger, director;

South Africa, “Sew the Winter to My Skin,” Jahmil X.T. Qubeka, director;

South Korea, “Burning,” Lee Chang-dong, director;

Spain, “Champions,” Javier Fesser, director;

Sweden, “Border,” Ali Abbasi, director;

Switzerland, “Eldorado,” Markus Imhoof, director;

Taiwan, “The Great Buddha+,” Hsin-Yao Huang, director; 

Thailand, “Malila The Farewell Flower,” Anucha Boonyawatana, director;

Tunisia, “Beauty and the Dogs,” Kaouther Ben Hania, director;

Turkey, “The Wild Pear Tree,” Nuri Bilge Ceylan, director;

Ukraine, “Donbass,” Sergei Loznitsa, director;

United Kingdom, “I Am Not a Witch,” Rungano Nyoni, director;

Uruguay, “Twelve-Year Night,” Álvaro Brechner, director;

Venezuela, “The Family,” Gustavo Rondón Córdova, director;

Vietnam, “The Tailor,” Buu Loc Tran, Kay Nguyen, directors;

Yemen, “10 Days before the Wedding,” Amr Gamal, director.

Review: "A Star Is Born"

Alright, let’s get this out of the way. Ranking all things A Star Is Born…

The films: 1954 > 2018 > 1937 > 1976

The leading men: James Mason > Fredric March > Bradley Cooper > Kris Kristofferson

And, of course, the leading ladies: Judy Garland > Lady Gaga > Janet Gaynor > Barbra Streisand

Indeed, Cooper’s A Star Is Born does not reach the sky-high heights of George Cukor’s dazzling 1954 production - then again, what does? It is still a damn fine picture, especially remarkable a feat, given it marks both Cooper’s directorial debut and Gaga’s first stab at headlining a film as an actress. If the picture is ultimately an imperfect one, the richness of their efforts cannot be denied.

The film opens on Cooper’s Jackson Maine, a hard-drinking country star whose love for the bottle draws him one evening into a drag bar. There, he becomes enraptured by Gaga’s Ally, an aspiring singer who, despite her killer voice, is on the verge of giving up on her dreams. Initially resistant to his advances, Ally eventually tags along and, at one of Jackson’s concerts, has the chance to belt out a tune she’s recently composed.

Ally emerges something of an oversight sensation, the clip of her performance going viral. She becomes Jackson’s partner on the road but it is inevitable the prospect of a solo career will rear its head. Such comes to fruition through music producer Rez (Rafi Gavron) who, to some chagrin from both Ally and Jackson, is determined to reinvent Ally as an extravagant (and frankly, far less appealing) pop superstar. As her fame rises, as is the case in all A Star Is Born pictures, his addictions worsen, testing the relationship of these two soulmates.

A Star Is Born is at its most absorbing in the early-going, with Gaga something of a legit revelation. Film buffs will inevitably compare her turn to the likes of Garland and Gaynor, as I admittedly already have, but the performance it actually most reminds me of is Courtney Love’s in The People vs. Larry Flynt - an unaffected, lived-in, completely compelling effort from a musician mostly untested as an actress. Gaga’s rapport with Cooper is stirring and heartfelt, their chemistry as potent on stage as it is in the film’s quieter moments.

If Gaga soars and shimmers early on, the rest of the proceedings, while entertaining enough, don’t quite live up to the stunning promise of the opening hour. As Ally transforms into a pop A-lister, guesting on Saturday Night Live and bringing aboard a pack of back-up dancers, and Jackson further succumbs to his demons, the intimacy of their dynamic, so essential to the film’s success, somewhat fades. On reflection, nearly all of the film’s best and most affecting scenes arrive in the first half. That isn’t to say the latter half is bad - it’s just decidedly inferior.

Beyond Cooper and Gaga, both Sam Elliott (as Jackson’s exasperated brother and manager) and Andrew Dice Clay (as Ally’s father) leave lasting impressions. The original songs, in several cases written and/or produced by its stars, are splendid and the picture also happens to be gorgeously shot, with photography by the great Matthew Libatique.

Garland’s remains the ultimate A Star Is Born but I have to admit, Gaga’s isn’t terribly far behind.

A-

2018 Oscar Nomination Predictions (September)

Aloha, fellow film fans!

Over the past two months, since my first Oscar nomination predictions for the year, an abundance of events have gone down in what is shaping up to be yet another dizzying awards season:

• Trailers dropped for a plethora of contenders, among them - At Eternity’s Gate; Ben Is Back; Boy Erased; The Favourite; First Man; The Front Runner; Green Book; If Beale Street Could Talk; Mary Queen of Scots; Mid '90s; On the Basis of Sex; The Other Side of the Wind; Peterloo; Roma; and What They Had.
  
  

• The Telluride, Toronto and Venice Film Festivals bolstered the Oscar campaigns of several pictures, including The Favourite, First Man, If Beale Street Could Talk, Roma and A Star Is Born, all earning stellar notices. Generating a more mixed response were Beautiful Boy, Boy Erased, Destroyer, The Front Runner and Peterloo.
  
  

• Actress Cicely Tyson, composer Lalo Schifrin, producers Kathleen Kennedy and Frank Marshall and publicist Martin Levy were named this year’s recipients of the Academy’s Governors Awards.
  
  

• A handful of early-release Oscar hopefuls, among them BlacKkKlansman, Eighth Grade and The Wife, opened to glowing reviews. Will this finally be the year for Spike Lee and/or Glenn Close?
  
  

• Crazy Rich Asians emerged a commercial phenomenon, spending four consecutive weeks atop the domestic box office and earning splendid critical notices to boot. Could this be a dark horse for a Best Picture nomination? (I wasn't terribly fond of the film but could certainly hop aboard a Michelle Yeoh train.)
  
  

• Oh, and (sigh) the Academy proposed three key changes to the Oscars - the introduction of a so-called "popular film" category (which, thankfully, for this year at least, was later nixed); a three-hour telecast that will have certain categories inexplicably presented during commercial breaks (which, unfortunately, remains the case); and an earlier air date for the telecast, February 9.

No doubt, of course, I'm overlooking something of significance that recently transpired.

With all of that said, please see below my latest set of Oscar predictions, for the month of September. In parentheses you will find how many slots a contender has moved up or down since my last rankings. In many cases, I have dropped a film or performer entirely. Note that I’m still holding off in predictions for Best Original Song and the shorts.

Enjoy and, as always, feel free to comment with your own thoughts as well!

Best Picture

1. First Man (-)

2. A Star Is Born (+3)

3. If Beale Street Could Talk (-)

4. Roma (NEW)

5. The Favourite (+4)

6. Widows (+1)

7. BlacKkKlansman (-)

8. Vice (+5)
   —

9. Can You Ever Forgive Me? (NEW)

10. The Incredibles 2 (NEW)

11. Green Book (NEW)

12. Mary Queen of Scots (-8)

13. Boy Erased (-6)

14. Crazy Rich Asians (NEW)

15. Black Panther (-3)

DROPPED
Beautiful Boy (-14)
Peterloo (-6)
On the Basis of Sex (-5)
The Front Runner (-2)
The Other Side of the Wind (-1)

Best Director

1. Damien Chazelle, First Man (-)

2. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (NEW)

3. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (-1)

4. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (-1)

5. Steve McQueen, Widows (-1)
   —

6. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (-1)

7. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite (+2)

8. Adam McKay, Vice (NEW)

9. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther (-1)

10. Orson Welles, The Other Side of the Wind (NEW)

DROPPED
Mike Leigh, Peterloo (-5)
Felix Van Groeningen, Beautiful Boy (-4)
Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased (-1)

Best Leading Actor

1. Ryan Gosling, First Man (+1)

2. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born (+1)

3. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity's Gate (+3)

4. Robert Redford, The Old Man and the Gun (+1)

5. Christian Bale, Vice (+2)
   —

6. Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased (-2)

7. Mahershala Ali, Green Book (NEW)

8. Steve Carell, Beautiful Boy (-7)

9. Stephan James, If Beale Street Could Talk (-)

10. John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman (-)

DROPPED
Hugh Jackman, The Front Runner (-3)

Best Leading Actress

1. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (+8)

2. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer (NEW)

3. Viola Davis, Widows (-1)

4. Glenn Close, The Wife (-2)

5. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born (+2)
   —

6. Emma Stone, The Favourite (+3)

7. Julia Roberts, Ben Is Back (NEW)

8. Kiki Layne, If Beale Street Could Talk (-4)

9. Saoirse Ronan, Mary Queen of Scots (-8)

10. Toni Collette, Hereditary (-4)

DROPPED
Felicity Jones, On the Basis of Sex (-5)
Charlize Theron, Tully (-1)

Best Supporting Actor

1. Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born (+1)

2. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy (-1)

3. Daniel Kaluuya, Widows (+2)

4. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (NEW)

5. Sam Rockwell, Vice (+1)
   —

6. Russell Crowe, Boy Erased (-2)

7. John C. Reilly, Stan and Ollie (NEW)

8. Ben Foster, Leave No Trace (NEW)

9. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman (-6)

10. Robert Forster, What They Had (-)

DROPPED
J.K. Simmons, The Front Runner (-4)
Armie Hammer, On the Basis of Sex (-3)
Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased (-2)

Best Supporting Actress

1. Claire Foy, First Man (+4)

2. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (+1)

3. Olivia Colman, The Favourite (+3)

4. Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased (-3)

5. Amy Adams, Vice (+2)
   —

6. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite (-2)

7. Sissy Spacek, The Old Man and the Gun (+2)

8. Natalie Portman, Vox Lux (NEW)

9. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots (-7)

10. Kathy Bates, On the Basis of Sex (-)

DROPPED
Michelle Rodriguez, Widows (-3)

Best Original Screenplay

1. Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara, The Favourite (-)

2. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (NEW)

3. Adam McKay, Vice (-)

4. Jean-Claude Carriere and Julian Schnabel, At Eternity's Gate (+2)

5. Mike Leigh, Peterloo (-4)
   —

6. Jonah Hill, Mid '90s (+1)

7. Brian Hayes Currie, Peter Farrelly and Nick Vallelonga, Green Book (NEW)

8. Oja Kodar and Orson Welles, The Other Side of the Wind (-3)

9. Bo Burnham, Eighth Grade (-)

10. Daniel Stiepleman, On the Basis of Sex (-6)

DROPPED
Diablo Cody, Tully (-2)
Boots Riley, Sorry to Bother You (-1)

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk (-)

2. Nicole Perman and Josh Singer, First Man (+2)

3. Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters, Irene Mecchi, Stephen J. Rivele, Eric Roth and Christopher Wilkinson, A Star Is Born (+5)

4. Spike Lee, David Rabinowitz, Charlie Wachtel and Kevin Willmott, BlacKkKlansman (-2)

5. Nicole Holofcener, Can You Ever Forgive Me? (NEW)
   —

6. Gillian Flynn and Steve McQueen, Widows (-1)

7. David Lowery, The Old Man and the Gun (NEW)

8. Joel Edgerton, Boy Erased (-1)

9. Luke Davies, Beautiful Boy (-6)

10. Beau Willimon, Mary Queen of Scots (-4)

DROPPED
Matt Bai, Jay Carson and Jason Reitman, The Front Runner (-2)
Jane Anderson, The Wife (-1)

Best Animated Feature

1. The Incredibles 2 (-)

2. Smallfoot (+1)

3. Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck-It-Ralph 2 (+1)

4. Isle of Dogs (-2)

5. Fireworks (-)
   —

6. Mirai (+1)

7. Lu Over the Wall (+2)

8. Teen Titans Go! to the Movies (NEW)

9. The Grinch (-3)

10. Spider-Man: Into the Spider Verse (-2)

DROPPED
Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation (-1)

Best Documentary Feature (first stab at predicting these)

1. RBG

2. Three Identical Strangers

3. King in the Wilderness

4. Won’t You Be My Neighbor?

5. The Oslo Diaries
   —

6. The Silence of Others

7. Inventing Tomorrow

8. Jane Fonda in Five Acts

9. Fahrenheit 11/9

10. Love, Gilda

Best Foreign Language Film (ditto)

1. Roma (Mexico)

2. Cold War (Poland)

3. Capernaum (Lebanon)

4. Never Look Away (Germany)

5. Sunset (Hungary)
   —

6. Girl (Belgium)

7. Border (Sweden)

8. Loro (Italy)

9. La Familia (Venezuela)

10. The Interpreter (Slovakia)

Best Cinematography

1. Matthew Libatique, A Star Is Born (+1)

2. Linus Sandgren, First Man (+4)

3. James Laxton, If Beale Street Could Talk (-2)

4. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma (NEW)

5. Robbie Ryan, The Favourite (-1)
   —

6. Sean Bobbitt, Widows (-3)

7. Hoyte Van Hoytema, Ad Astra (+1)

8. Rachel Morrison, Black Panther (+1)

9. Dick Pope, Peterloo (-3)

10. Bruno Delbonnel, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (NEW)

DROPPED
John Mathieson, Mary Queen of Scots (-4)
Ruben Impens, Beautiful Boy (-1)

Best Costume Design

1. Sandy Powell, The Favourite (+2)

2. Colleen Atwood, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (-)

3. Sandy Powell, Mary Poppins Returns (+4)

4. Andrea Flesch, Colette (+2)

5. Mary Zophres, First Man (+3)
   —

6. Alexandra Byrne, Mary Queen of Scots (-5)

7. Ruth E. Carter, Black Panther (+2)

8. Jacqueline Durran, Peterloo (-3)

9. Guy Speranza, Stan and Ollie (NEW)

10. Jenny Beavan, The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (-5)

DROPPED
Joanna Johnston, Welcome to Marwen (-1)

Best Film Editing

1. Tom Cross, First Man (+4)

2. Jay Cassidy, A Star Is Born (-)

3. Joe Walker, Widows (-)

4. Joi McMillon and Nat Sanders, If Beale Street Could Talk (-3)

5. Alfonso Cuaron and Adam Gough, Roma (NEW)
   —

6. Barry Alexander Brown, BlacKkKlansman (-1)

7. Sam Sneade, The Favourite (-1)

8. Hank Corwin, Vice (NEW)

9. Debbie Berman and Michael P. Shawver, Black Panther (-1)

10. John Axelrad and Lee Haugen, Ad Astra (NEW)

DROPPED
Chris Dickens, Mary Queen of Scots (-4)
Stephen Mirrione, Beautiful Boy (-2)
Bob Murawski and Orson Welles, The Other Side of the Wind (-1)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Vice (+3)

2. The Favourite (-)

3. Stan and Ollie (NEW)
   —

4. Mary Queen of Scots (-3)

5. At Eternity's Gate (+1)

6. Peterloo (-3)

7. Black Panther (-2)

8. Deadpool 2 (-)

9. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (NEW)

10. Suspiria (-1)

DROPPED
Solo: A Star Wars Story (-4)
First Man (-1)

Best Original Score

1. Justin Hurwitz, First Man (-)

2. Nicholas Britell, If Beale Street Could Talk (-)

3. Terence Blanchard, BlacKkKlansman (-)

4. Marc Shaiman and Scott Wittman, Mary Poppins Returns (+2)

5. Alexandre Desplat, Isle of Dogs (-)
   —

6. James Newton Howard, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (+1)

7. Michael Giacchino, The Incredibles 2 (+1)

8. Hans Zimmer, Widows (NEW)

9. Alexandre Desplat, The Sisters Brothers (NEW)

10. Michel Legrand, The Other Side of the Wind (NEW)

DROPPED
Max Richter, Mary Queen of Scots (-7)
Alan Silvestri, Ready Player One (-2)
Pino Donaggio, Domino (-1)

Best Production Design

1. Fiona Crombie and Alice Felton, The Favourite (+1)

2. John Myrhe and Gordon Sim, Mary Poppins Returns (+1)

3. Stuart Craig and Anna Pinnock, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (+1)

4. Nathan Crowley and Kathy Lucas, First Man (+4)

5. Lisa Chung and Guy Hendrix Dyas, The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (-)
   —

6. Gina Cromwell and James Merifield, Mary Queen of Scots (-5)

7. Paul Harrod and Adam Stockhausen, Isle of Dogs (-1)

8. Stephan Cressend and Cecile Vatelot, At Eternity’s Gate (NEW)

9. Hannah Beachler and Jay Hart, Black Panther (-2)

10. Suzie Davies and Charlotte Watts, Peterloo (-)

DROPPED
Inbal Weinberg, Suspiria (-2)

Best Sound Editing

1. A Star Is Born (-)

2. First Man (-)

3. Avengers: Infinity War (+1)

4. Mission: Impossible - Fallout (-1)

5. Ad Astra (-)
   —

6. Black Panther (-)

7. Ready Player One (+1)

8. The Incredibles 2 (-1)

9. Widows (-)

10. Mary Poppins Returns (NEW)

DROPPED
Solo: A Star Wars Story (-1)

Best Sound Mixing

1. A Star Is Born (-)

2. First Man (-)

3. The Incredibles 2 (-)

4. Widows (-)

5. Avengers: Infinity War (+2)
   —

6. Ad Astra (-1)

7. Black Panther (-1)

8. Mission: Impossible - Fallout (-)

9. Mary Poppins Returns (-)

10. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (-)

Best Visual Effects

1. First Man (-)

2. Avengers: Infinity War (-)

3. Ready Player One (-)

4. Ad Astra (-)

5. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (-)
   —

6. Black Panther (+1)

7. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (-1)

8. A Wrinkle in Time (NEW)

9. Deadpool 2 (+1)

10. Solo: A Star Wars Story (-1)

DROPPED
Mowgli (-3)