2019 Oscar Nomination Predictions (November)

After a rather uneventful October, November at last finds me shaking up some of these Oscar rankings.

A clear top tier has emerged, at least for the time being - Quentin Tarantino’s Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Martin Scorsese’s The Irishman, Noah Baumbach’s Marriage Story and Bong Joon-ho’s Parasite. A valid case, for my money at least, could be made for any of these four films scoring the Best Picture prize. I am unconvinced, barring Sam Mendes’ 1917 emerging both a critical and commercial juggernaut (at least the latter of which seems unlikely), that any other film can take top honors.

While the likes of Parasite and Bombshell are moving up in my rankings, I’m increasingly losing faith in contenders like The Report and Waves, which remain modestly in the mix but may have peaked in Oscar chatter months ago. Jojo Rabbit, Joker and Rocketman are all splashing around here and there - and entering my Best Picture top 15 for the first time, albeit outside the top 10 - and yes, despite word that it’s destined to miss some precursor deadlines, I still believe Cats is liable to make a showing, even if it’s only down in the tech races.

All that said, here are my updated Oscar predictions for the month of November. In parentheses you’ll see how many slots a contender has moved up or down since my October rankings. In some cases, I have dropped a film or performer entirely (sorry, The Good Liar and Terminator: Dark Fate). I remain hesitant to tackle the shorts, ditto Best Original Song, but will hopefully be able to give those a go in December.

Best Picture

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (+1)

2. The Irishman (+1)

3. Marriage Story (-2)

4. Parasite (+8)

5. Bombshell (+1)

6. Ford v Ferrari (-1)

7. 1917 (-3)

8. The Farewell (-)

9. The Two Popes (+1)
   —

10. Little Women (-1)

11. Jojo Rabbit (NEW)

12. Rocketman (NEW)

13. Joker (NEW)

14. Waves (-7)

15. Cats (-)

DROPPED
The Report (-5)
Dolemite Is My Name (-3)
Dark Waters (-2)

Best Director

1. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman (-)

2. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-)

3. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (-)

4. Bong Joon-ho, Parasite (+2)

5. Pedro Almodovar, Pain and Glory (-)
   —

6. Sam Mendes, 1917 (-2)

7. Jay Roach, Bombshell (-)

8. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (NEW)

9. Greta Gerwig, Little Women (-1)

10. Lulu Wang, The Farewell (-)

DROPPED
Trey Edward Schults, Waves (-2)

Best Actress

1. Renee Zellweger, Judy (-)

2. Charlize Theron, Bombshell (+2)

3. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (-1)

4. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women (+1)

5. Alfre Woodard, Clemency (-2)
   —

6. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet (+1)

7. Lupita Nyong’o, Us (+1)

8. Awkwafina, The Farewell (-2)

9. Jodie Turner-Smith, Queen & Slim (+1)

10. Mary Kay Place, Diane (NEW)

DROPPED
Helen Mirren, The Good Liar (-2)

Best Actor

1. Adam Driver, Marriage Story (-)

2. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes (-)

3. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (+1)

4. Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari (+1)

5. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (+2)
   —

6. Robert De Niro, The Irishman (-)

7. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (+1)

8. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name (-5)

9. Taron Egerton, Rocketman (NEW)

10. Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems (NEW)

DROPPED
Ian McKellen, The Good Liar (-2)
Mark Ruffalo, Dark Waters (-1)

Best Supporting Actress

1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story (-)

2. Annette Bening, The Report (-)

3. Nicole Kidman, Bombshell (+7)

4. Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey (-)

5. Margot Robbie, Bombshell (NEW)
   —

6. Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-3)

7. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers (-)

8. Jennifer Hudson, Cats (-3)

9. Florence Pugh, Little Women (NEW)

10. Zhao Shuzhen, The Farewell (-4)

DROPPED
Julie Hagerty, Marriage Story (-3)
Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell (-2)

Best Supporting Actor

1. Al Pacino, The Irishman (-)

2. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-)

3. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes (-)

4. Joe Pesci, The Irishman (+5)

5. Alan Alda, Marriage Story (-1)
   —

6. John Lithgow, Bombshell (-1)

7. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (-)

8. Sterling K. Brown, Waves (-2)

9. Song Kang-ho, Parasite (NEW)

10. Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy (-2)

DROPPED
Ian McKellen, Cats (-1)

Best Original Screenplay

1. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (-)

2. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-)

3. Pedro Almodovar, Pain and Glory (-)

4. Bong Joon-ho and Jin Won Han, Parasite (-)

5. Lulu Wang, The Farewell (+1)
   —

6. Charles Randolph, Bombshell (+3)

7. Trey Edward Schults, Waves (-2)

8. Scott Alexander and Larry Karaszewski, Dolemite Is My Name (-)

9. Scott Z. Burns, The Report (-2)

10. Jez Butterworth, John-Henry Butterworth, Jason Keller and James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari (-)

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Steven Zaiillian, The Irishman (-)

2. Frank Cottrell-Boyce and Anthony McCarten, The Two Popes (-)

3. Greta Gerwig, Little Women (-)

4. Micah Fitzerman-Blue and Noah Harpster, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (-)

5. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (+2)
   —

6. Lorene Scafaria, Hustlers (+2)

7. Matthew Michael Carnahan and Mario Correa, Dark Waters (-2)

8. Todd Phillips and Scott Silver, Joker (NEW)

9. Destin Daniel Cretton and Andrew Lanham, Just Mercy (-)

10. Julian Fellowes, Downton Abbey (-4)

DROPPED
Jeffrey Hatcher, The Good Liar (-1)

Best Animated Feature

1. Toy Story 4 (-)

2. Frozen II (-)

3. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (-)

4. Missing Link (-)

5. Okko’s Inn (-)
   —

6. I Lost My Body (-)

7. Funan (+2)

8. Abominable (-1)

9. Children of the Sea (NEW)

10. A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (-2)

DROPPED
The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part (-1)

Best Documentary Feature

1. Maiden (-)

2. Aquarela (+1)

3. One Child Nation (+1)

4. Apollo 11 (-2)

5. Rolling Thunder Revue: A Bob Dylan Story (-)
   —

6. Knock Down the House (+4)

7. American Factory (NEW)

8. The Biggest Little Farm (NEW)

9. Toni Morrison: The Pieces I Am (NEW)

10. Pavarotti (-3)

DROPPED
Amazing Grace (-5)
Mike Wallace Is Here (-3)
Untouchable (-2)

Best International Feature

1. Parasite (South Korea) (+1)

2. Pain and Glory (Spain) (-1)

3. Les Misérables (France) (+4)

4. The Painted Bird (Czech Republic) (+1)

5. Monos (Colombia) (+5)
   —

6. Our Mothers (Belgium) (-3)

7. Honeyland (Macedonia) (-4)

8. Queen of Hearts (Denmark) (-4)

9. Atlantics (Senegal) (NEW)

10. Joy (Austria) (NEW)

DROPPED
The Delegation (Albania) (-5)
Heroic Losers (Argentina) (-3)

Best Cinematography

1. Robert Richardson, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (+1)

2. Rodrigo Prieto, The Irishman (-1)

3. Roger Deakins, 1917 (-)

4. Phedon Papamichael, Ford v Ferrari (-)

5. Jörg Widmer, A Hidden Life (-)
   —

6. Jarin Blaschke, The Lighthouse (+3)

7. Lawrence Sher, Joker (NEW)

8. Drew Daniels, Waves (-3)

9. Kyung-Pyo Hong, Parasite (NEW)

10. Christopher Ross, Cats (-2)

DROPPED
Edward Lachmann, Dark Waters (-4)
George Steel, The Aeronauts (-1)

Best Costume Design

1. Arianne Phillips, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-)

2. Jany Temime, Judy (+2)

3. Jacqueline Durran, Little Women (+2)

4. Ruth E. Carter, Dolemite Is My Name (-2)

5. Julian Day, Rocketman (NEW)
   —

6. Christopher Peterson and Sandy Powell, The Irishman (-3)

7. Paco Delgado, Cats (-1)

8. Anna Mary Scott Robbins, Downton Abbey (-1)

9. Mayes C. Rubeo, Jojo Rabbit (+1)

10. Jacqueline Durran, 1917 (-1)

DROPPED
Ellen Mirojnick, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil (-3)

Best Film Editing

1. Thelma Schoonmaker, The Irishman (-)

2. Fred Raskin, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-)

3. Michael McCusker, Ford v Ferrari (+1)

4. Lee Smith, 1917 (-1)

5. John Poll, Bombshell (-)
   —

6. Jennifer Lame, Marriage Story (-)

7. Jinmo Yang, Parasite (NEW)

8. Maryann Brandon and Stefan Grube, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (-1)

9. Jeff Groth, Joker (NEW)

10. Melanie Oliver, Cats (-1)

DROPPED
Trey Edward Shults and Isaac Hagy, Waves (-3)
Greg O’Bryant, The Report (-1)

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

1. Vivian Baker, Jaime Leigh McIntosh, Anne Morgan and Cristina Waltz, Bombshell (+1)

2. Jeremy Woodhead, Judy (-1)

3. Belinda Anderson and Angie Wells, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (-)

4. Uxue Laguardia and Niamh O’Loan, Cats (-1)

5. Debra Denson, Carla Farmer, Stacey Morris and Vera Steimberg Moder, Dolemite Is My Name (-)
   —

6. Kay Georgiou and Nicki Ledermann, Joker (+1)

7. Lizzie Georglou and Elizabeth Yianni-Georgiou, Rocketman (+3)

8. Janine Rath and Heba Thorisdottir, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-)

9. Fríða Aradóttir and Jennifer Bell, Little Women (-)

10. Jorge Palacios, The Two Popes (NEW)

DROPPED
Sacha Carter, Paul Gooch and David White, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil (-5)

Best Original Score

1. John Williams, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (-)

2. Marco Beltrami and Buck Sanders, Ford v Ferrari (+1)

3. Alexandre Desplat, Little Women (+2)

4. Randy Newman, Marriage Story (-1)

5. Thomas Newman, 1917 (-3)
   —

6. Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, Waves (-)

7. Nate Heller, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (+1)

8. Michael Giacchino, Jojo Rabbit (NEW)

9. Hildur Guðnadóttir, Joker (NEW)

10. Scott Bomar, Dolemite Is My Name (-3)

DROPPED
Carter Burwell, The Good Liar (-2)
Danny Elfman, Dumbo (-1)

Best Production Design

1. Nancy Haigh and Barbara Ling, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-)

2. Rick Carter and Kevin Jenkins, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (+2)

3. Dennis Gassner, 1917 (-1)

4. Regina Graves and Bob Shaw, The Irishman (-1)

5. Ha-Jun Lee, Parasite (NEW)
   —

6. Eve Stewart, Cats (-1)

7. Claire Kaufman, Little Women (-)

8. Nora Sopková and Ra Vincent, Jojo Rabbit (NEW)

9. François Audouy and Peter Lando, Ford v Ferrari (+1)

10. David Hindle and Christian Huband, The Aeronauts (-4)

DROPPED
Clay A. Griffith and Lisa K. Sessions, Dolemite Is My Name (-3)
Dominic Capon and Patrick Tatopoulos, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil (-2)

Best Sound Editing

1. David Acord and Matthew Wood, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (-)

2. Eric A. Norris and Donald Sylvester, Ford v Ferrari (+2)

3. The team from 1917 (-1)

4. Shannon Mills and Samson Neslund, Avengers: Endgame (-1)

5. Harry Cohen and Leo Marcil, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-)
   —

6. The team from Cats (-)

7. Philip Stockton, The Irishman (+1)

8. Grant Elder, Ad Astra (NEW)

9. Saoirse Christopherson and Lee Walpole, The Aeronauts (-)

10. Teresa Eckton, J.R. Grubbs, Kimberly Patrick and Dee Selby, Captain Marvel (-)

DROPPED
Craig Henighan, Terminator: Dark Fate (-1)

Best Sound Mixing

1. Ben Burtt and Andy Nelson, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (-)

2. Michael Minkler, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (+1)

3. Richard Bullock, Jr., Paul Massey and Steven Morrow, Ford v Ferrari (+1)

4. Scott Millan, 1917 (-2)

5. Simon Hayes, Cats (-)
   —

6. Tom Johnson, Juan Peralta and Douglas Parker, Avengers: Endgame (-)

7. Tod A. Maitland, The Irishman (-)

8. John Hayes, Rocketman (+2)

9. Stuart Hilliker and Lee Walpole, The Aeronauts (-1)

10. Paul Cotterell and Johnathan Rush, Judy (-1)

Best Visual Effects

1. Roger Guyett and Dominic Tuohy, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (-)

2. Dan DeLeeuw, Russell Earl, Kelly Port and Daniel Sudick, Avengers: Endgame (-)

3. Robert Legato, Elliot Newman and Adam Valdez, The Lion King (+3)

4. Pablo Helman and Jiwoong Kim, The Irishman (-1)

5. The team from Cats (-1)
   —

6. Mark Hawker, Bryan Hirota and Bill Westenhofer, Gemini Man (+4)

7. The team from 1917 (-)

8. Christopher Downs, Jiwoong Kim and Bradley Parker, Ad Astra (NEW)

9. Romain Arnoux, Louis Morin and Jean-François Ferland, The Aeronauts (-3)

10. Daniel Sudick and Christopher Townsend, Captain Marvel (-2)

DROPPED
The team from Terminator: Dark Fate (-2)

2019 Oscar Nomination Predictions (October)

The past month has not exactly produced much in the way of awards season game-changers.

Through the New York Film Festival, we finally scored a glimpse of Martin Scorsese’s The Irishman, which indeed appears poised for the lauds and Oscar lovin’ we suspected all along. Two contenders for Best Actor and Best Actress, Joker’s Joaquin Phoenix and Judy’s Renee Zellweger, saw their pictures score significant commercial success and more modest critical receptions. And Clint Eastwood has yet again snuck up on us with an 11 o’clock-hour release, this time in the form of Richard Jewell (which doesn’t look terribly fetching to me but then again, I’ll watch anything with the goddess that is Kathy Bates.)

…and isn’t that about it?

The uncertainty that last month lingered, with the exception of The Irishman, continues to hover over this Oscar race. Question marks remain around at least five contenders - 1917, Bombshell, Cats, Dark Waters and Little Women - all of which could be Best Picture nominees…or go absolutely nowhere. I would think 1917 is a sure bet for at least some affection in the tech fields, and Bombshell reeks of The Big Short and Vice, both of which the Academy ate up, but nothing is set in stone at this point.

With that said, here is my updated set of Oscar predictions for the month of October. In parentheses you’ll find how many slots a contender has moved up or down since my last rankings. In some (albeit not many) cases, I have dropped a film or performer entirely. I am still holding off on predictions in the shorts, ditto Best Original Song, but am taking my first stab at Best International Feature…

Best Picture

1. Marriage Story (-)

2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-)

3. The Irishman (-)

4. 1917 (-)

5. Ford v. Ferrari (+2)

6. Bombshell (+3)

7. Waves (-2)

8. The Farewell (-2)

9. Little Women (-1)
   —

10. The Two Popes (-)

11. The Report (+1)

12. Parasite (NEW)

13. Dolemite Is My Name (+1)

14. Dark Waters (-3)

15. Cats (-2)

DROPPED
Just Mercy (-1)

Best Director

1. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman (-)

2. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-)

3. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (-)

4. Sam Mendes, 1917 (-)

5. Pedro Almodovar, Pain and Glory (-)
   —

6. Joon-Ho Bong, Parasite (-)

7. Jay Roach, Bombshell (+2)

8. Greta Gerwig, Little Women (+2)

9. Trey Edward Schults, Waves (-2)

10. Lulu Wang, The Farewell (-2)

Best Actress

1. Renee Zellweger, Judy (-)

2. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (-)

3. Alfre Woodard, Clemency (+2)

4. Charlize Theron, Bombshell (-)

5. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women (-2)
   —

6. Awkwafina, The Farewell (-)

7. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet (-)

8. Lupita Nyong’o, Us (+1)

9. Helen Mirren, The Good Liar (-1)

10. Jodie Turner-Smith, Queen & Slim (-)

Best Actor

1. Adam Driver, Marriage Story (-)

2. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes (+1)

3. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name (+2)

4. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (-2)

5. Christian Bale, Ford v. Ferrari (-1)
   —

6. Robert De Niro, The Irishman (+1)

7. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (-1)

8. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (+1)

9. Ian McKellen, The Good Liar (+1)

10. Mark Ruffalo, Dark Waters (-2)

Best Supporting Actress

1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story (-)

2. Annette Bening, The Report (-)

3. Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-)

4. Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey (+6)

5. Jennifer Hudson, Cats (-1)
   —

6. Zhao Shuzhen, The Farewell (-)

7. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers (+1)

8. Julie Hagerty, Marriage Story (-1)

9. Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell (NEW)

10. Nicole Kidman, Bombshell (NEW)

DROPPED
Anna Paquin, The Irishman (-6)
Meryl Streep, Little Women (-2)

Best Supporting Actor

1. Al Pacino, The Irishman (+6)

2. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-1)

3. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes (-1)

4. Alan Alda, Marriage Story (-1)

5. John Lithgow, Bombshell (-1)
   —

6. Sterling K. Brown, Waves (-1)

7. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (+2)

8. Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy (-2)

9. Joe Pesci, The Irishman (NEW)

10. Ian McKellen, Cats (-)

DROPPED
Kelvin Harrison, Jr., Waves (-4)

Best Original Screenplay

1. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (-)

2. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-)

3. Pedro Almodovar, Pain and Glory (+2)

4. Joon-Ho Bong and Jin Won Han, Parasite (+2)

5. Trey Edward Schults, Waves (-2)
   —

6. Lulu Wang, The Farewell (-2)

7. Scott Z. Burns, The Report (-)

8. Scott Alexander and Larry Karaszewski, Dolemite Is My Name (+2)

9. Charles Randolph, Bombshell (-1)

10. Jez Butterworth, John-Henry Butterworth, Jason Keller and James Mangold, Ford v. Ferrari (-1)

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Steven Zaiillian, The Irishman (-)

2. Frank Cottrell-Boyce and Anthony McCarten, The Two Popes (+1)

3. Greta Gerwig, Little Women (-1)

4. Micah Fitzerman-Blue and Noah Harpster, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (+1)

5. Matthew Michael Carnahan and Mario Correa, Dark Waters (-1)
   —

6. Julian Fellowes, Downton Abbey (-)

7. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (+2)

8. Lorene Scafaria, Hustlers (NEW)

9. Destin Daniel Cretton and Andrew Lanham, Just Mercy (-3)

10. Jeffrey Hatcher, The Good Liar (-)

DROPPED
Todd Phillips and Scott Silver, Joker (-3)

Best Animated Feature

1. Toy Story 4 (-)

2. Frozen II (+1)

3. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (-1)

4. Missing Link (-)

5. Okko’s Inn (-)
   —

6. I Lost My Body (NEW)

7. Abominable (-1)

8. A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (-)

9. Funan (-)

10. The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part (-3)

DROPPED
The Secret Life of Pets 2 (-1)

Best Documentary Feature

1. Maiden (+1)

2. Apollo 11 (-1)

3. Aquarela (-)

4. One Child Nation (NEW)

5. Rolling Thunder Revue: A Bob Dylan Story (-)
   —

6. Amazing Grace (-)

7. Pavarotti (-)

8. Mike Wallace Is Here (-4)

9. Untouchable (-1)

10. Knock Down the House (-1)

DROPPED
Ask Dr. Ruth (-1)

Best International Feature

1. Pain and Glory (Spain)

2. Parasite (South Korea)

3. Our Mothers (Belgium)

4. Honeyland (Macedonia)

5. Queen of Hearts (Denmark)
   —

6. The Painted Bird (Czech Republic)

7. The Delegation (Albania)

8. Les Misérables (France)

9. Heroic Losers (Argentina)

10. Monos (Colombia)

Best Cinematography

1. Rodrigo Prieto, The Irishman (+1)

2. Robert Richardson, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (+1)

3. Roger Deakins, 1917 (-2)

4. Phedon Papamichael, Ford v. Ferrari (-)

5. Drew Daniels, Waves (-)
   —

6. Jörg Widmer, A Hidden Life (+1)

7. Edward Lachmann, Dark Waters (+2)

8. Christopher Ross, Cats (-2)

9. Jarin Blaschke, The Lighthouse (NEW)

10. George Steel, The Aeronauts (-2)

DROPPED
Yorick Le Saux, Little Women (-1)

Best Costume Design

1. Arianne Phillips, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-)

2. Ruth E. Carter, Dolemite Is My Name (+2)

3. Christopher Peterson and Sandy Powell, The Irishman (-1)

4. Jany Temime, Judy (+2)

5. Jacqueline Durran, Little Women (-2)
   —

6. Paco Delgado, Cats (-1)

7. Anna Mary Scott Robbins, Downton Abbey (NEW)

8. Ellen Mirojnick, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil (-)

9. Jacqueline Durran, 1917 (-2)

10. Mayes C. Rubeo, Jojo Rabbit (-)

DROPPED
Julian Day, Rocketman (-2)

Best Film Editing

1. Thelma Schoonmaker, The Irishman (-)

2. Fred Raskin, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (+1)

3. Lee Smith, 1917 (+1)

4. Michael McCusker, Ford v. Ferrari (-2)

5. John Poll, Bombshell (-)
   —

6. Jennifer Lame, Marriage Story (+1)

7. Maryann Brandon and Stefan Grube, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (+1)

8. Trey Edward Shults and Isaac Hagy, Waves (-2)

9. Melanie Oliver, Cats (-)

10. Greg O’Bryant, The Report (-)

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

1. Jeremy Woodhead, Judy (+1)

2. Vivian Baker, Jaime Leigh McIntosh, Anne Morgan and Cristina Waltz, Bombshell (-1)

3. Uxue Laguardia and Niamh O’Loan, Cats (-)

4. Belinda Anderson and Angie Wells, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (+1)

5. Debra Denson, Carla Farmer, Stacey Morris and Vera Steimberg Moder, Dolemite Is My Name (-1)
   —

6. Sacha Carter, Paul Gooch and David White, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil (+1)

7. Kay Georgiou and Nicki Ledermann, Joker (-1)

8. Janine Rath and Heba Thorisdottir, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-)

9. Fríða Aradóttir and Jennifer Bell, Little Women (-)

10. Lizzie Georglou and Elizabeth Yianni-Georgiou, Rocketman (-)

Best Original Score

1. John Williams, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (-)

2. Thomas Newman, 1917 (-)

3. Marco Beltrami, Ford v. Ferrari (+1)

4. Randy Newman, Marriage Story (+2)

5. Alexandre Desplat, Little Women (-2)
   —

6. Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, Waves (-1)

7. Scott Bomar, Dolemite Is My Name (-)

8. Nate Heller, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (-)

9. Carter Burwell, The Good Liar (-)

10. Danny Elfman, Dumbo (-)

Best Production Design

1. Nancy Haigh and Barbara Ling, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-)

2. Dennis Gassner, 1917 (-)

3. Regina Graves and Bob Shaw, The Irishman (-)

4. Rick Carter and Kevin Jenkins, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (+1)

5. Eve Stewart, Cats (-1)
   —

6. David Hindle and Christian Huband, The Aeronauts (-)

7. Claire Kaufman, Little Women (-)

8. Clay A. Griffith and Lisa K. Sessions, Dolemite Is My Name (+2)

9. Dominic Capon and Patrick Tatopoulos, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil (-1)

10. François Audouy and Peter Lando, Ford v. Ferrari (-1)

Best Sound Editing

1. David Acord and Matthew Wood, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (-)

2. The team from 1917 (+1)

3. Shannon Mills and Samson Neslund, Avengers: Endgame (+1)

4. Eric A. Norris and Donald Sylvester, Ford v. Ferrari (-2)

5. Harry Cohen and Leo Marcil, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-)
   —

6. The team from Cats (-)

7. Philip Stockton, The Irishman (+2)

8. Saoirse Christopherson and Lee Walpole, The Aeronauts (-1)

9. Teresa Eckton, J.R. Grubbs, Kimberly Patrick and Dee Selby, Captain Marvel (-1)

10. Craig Henighan, Terminator: Dark Fate (-)

Best Sound Mixing

1. Ben Burtt and Andy Nelson, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (-)

2. Scott Millan, 1917 (+1)

3. Michael Minkler, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (+1)

4. Richard Bullock, Jr., Paul Massey and Steven Morrow, Ford v. Ferrari (-2)

5. Simon Hayes, Cats (-)
   —

6. Tom Johnson, Juan Peralta and Douglas Parker, Avengers: Endgame (-)

7. Tod A. Maitland, The Irishman (+1)

8. Stuart Hilliker and Lee Walpole, The Aeronauts (-1)

9. Paul Cotterell and Johnathan Rush, Judy (-)

10. John Hayes, Rocketman (-)

Best Visual Effects

1. Roger Guyett and Dominic Tuohy, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (-)

2. Dan DeLeeuw, Russell Earl, Kelly Port and Daniel Sudick, Avengers: Endgame (-)

3. Pablo Helman and Jiwoong Kim, The Irishman (-)

4. The team from Cats (-)

5. Romain Arnoux, Louis Morin and Jean-François Ferland, The Aeronauts (-)
   —

6. Robert Legato, Elliot Newman and Adam Valdez, The Lion King (+1)

7. The team from 1917 (-)

8. Daniel Sudick and Christopher Townsend, Captain Marvel (-2)

9. The team from Terminator: Dark Fate (-)

10. Mark Hawker, Bryan Hirota and Bill Westenhofer, Gemini Man (-)

2019 Oscar Nomination Predictions (September)

You may or may not have noticed - I am, after all, constantly on Twitter, more often than not preaching on some Best Supporting Actress race from half a century ago - but I haven’t done a whole lot on my blog this year. Much as I’d love to embark on another Oscar Flashback and/or pen my usual reviews, I’m afraid I simply haven’t had the time in recent months.

I am, however, trying my best to keep up with the Oscar race and that means (at last!) compiling my first set of predictions for the year. In the past, I’ve started off with a list of summer predictions, around July or August, but this time around it’ll have to be September - and I shall try to update these bad boys once a month, from here ‘til nominations morning.

One year ago, I was still predicting Steve McQueen (Widows), Robert Redford (The Old Man and the Gun) and Nicole Kidman (Boy Erased) for nominations, not to mention the likes of Colette and Peterloo, so know for sure that at least a handful of the following are destined to fall flat.

The main mystery of the coming awards season remains, of course, Martin Scorsese’s The Irishman, which seems destined for critical and commercial success…but, for all we know, could also wind up with a Casino-level reception. Uncertainty also lingers over Greta Gerwig’s Little Women and Sam Mendes’ 1917, plus Todd Haynes’ Dark Waters, Jay Roach’s Bombshell and yes..sigh…Tom Hooper’s Cats. Less of a question mark is Noah Baumbach’s Marriage Story, perhaps on the verge of being the first film since American Hustle to score in all four acting categories.

Charlize Theron and Renee Zellweger are on the hunt for their second golden guys, while the likes of veterans Julie Hagerty and Jonathan Pryce seek first career nominations. And then, of course, there is Annette Bening, who this year could land career Oscar nom #5.

With all that said, here is my current hunch on how the race goes down, with predictions ranked from most to least likely to be nominated. I plan to update everything sometime in mid-October and perhaps at that time will take a shot at Best Original Song. Also, sorry to any names I’ve neglected to include on the techs end!

Enjoy… :)

Best Picture

1. Marriage Story

2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

3. The Irishman

4. 1917

5. Waves

6. The Farewell

7. Ford v. Ferrari

8. Little Women

9. Bombshell
   —

10. The Two Popes

11. Dark Waters

12. The Report

13. Cats

14. Dolemite Is My Name

15. Just Mercy

Best Director

1. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman

2. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

3. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story

4. Sam Mendes, 1917

5. Pedro Almodovar, Pain and Glory
   —

6. Joon-Ho Bong, Parasite

7. Trey Edward Schults, Waves

8. Lulu Wang, The Farewell

9. Jay Roach, Bombshell

10. Greta Gerwig, Little Women

Best Actress

1. Renee Zellweger, Judy

2. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story

3. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women

4. Charlize Theron, Bombshell

5. Alfre Woodard, Clemency
   —

6. Awkwafina, The Farewell

7. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet

8. Helen Mirren, The Good Liar

9. Lupita Nyong’o, Us

10. Jodie Turner-Smith, Queen & Slim

Best Actor

1. Adam Driver, Marriage Story

2. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory

3. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes

4. Christian Bale, Ford v. Ferrari

5. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name
   —

6. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker

7. Robert De Niro, The Irishman

8. Mark Ruffalo, Dark Waters

9. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

10. Ian McKellen, The Good Liar

Best Supporting Actress

1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story

2. Annette Bening, The Report

3. Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

4. Jennifer Hudson, Cats

5. Anna Paquin, The Irishman
   —

6. Zhao Shuzhen, The Farewell

7. Julie Hagerty, Marriage Story

8. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers

9. Meryl Streep, Little Women

10. Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey

Best Supporting Actor

1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

2. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes

3. Alan Alda, Marriage Story

4. John Lithgow, Bombshell

5. Sterling K. Brown, Waves
   —

6. Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy

7. Kelvin Harrison, Jr., Waves

8. Al Pacino, The Irishman

9. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

10. Ian McKellen, Cats

Best Original Screenplay

1. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story

2. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

3. Trey Edward Schults, Waves

4. Lulu Wang, The Farewell

5. Pedro Almodovar, Pain and Glory
   —

6. Joon-Ho Bong and Jin Won Han, Parasite

7. Scott Z. Burns, The Report

8. Charles Randolph, Bombshell

9. Jez Butterworth, John-Henry Butterworth, Jason Keller and James Mangold, Ford v. Ferrari

10. Scott Alexander and Larry Karaszewski, Dolemite Is My Name

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Steven Zaiillian, The Irishman

2. Greta Gerwig, Little Women

3. Frank Cottrell-Boyce and Anthony McCarten, The Two Popes

4. Matthew Michael Carnahan and Mario Correa, Dark Waters

5. Micah Fitzerman-Blue and Noah Harpster, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
   —

6. Destin Daniel Cretton and Andrew Lanham, Just Mercy

7. Julian Fellowes, Downton Abbey

8. Todd Phillips and Scott Silver, Joker

9. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit

10. Jeffrey Hatcher, The Good Liar

Best Animated Feature

1. Toy Story 4

2. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World

3. Frozen II

4. Missing Link

5. Okko’s Inn
   —

6. Abominable

7. The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part

8. A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon

9. Funan

10. The Secret Life of Pets 2

Best Documentary Feature

1. Apollo 11

2. Maiden

3. Aquarela

4. Mike Wallace Is Here

5. Rolling Thunder Revue: A Bob Dylan Story
   —

6. Amazing Grace

7. Pavarotti

8. Untouchable

9. Knock Down the House

10. Ask Dr. Ruth

Best Cinematography

1. Roger Deakins, 1917

2. Rodrigo Prieto, The Irishman

3. Robert Richardson, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

4. Phedon Papamichael, Ford v. Ferrari

5. Drew Daniels, Waves
   —

6. Christopher Ross, Cats

7. Jörg Widmer, A Hidden Life

8. George Steel, The Aeronauts

9. Edward Lachmann, Dark Waters

10. Yorick Le Saux, Little Women

Best Costume Design

1. Arianne Phillips, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

2. Christopher Peterson and Sandy Powell, The Irishman

3. Jacqueline Durran, Little Women

4. Ruth E. Carter, Dolemite Is My Name

5. Paco Delgado, Cats
   —

6. Jany Temime, Judy

7. Jacqueline Durran, 1917

8. Ellen Mirojnick, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil

9. Julian Day, Rocketman

10. Mayes C. Rubeo, Jojo Rabbit

Best Film Editing

1. Thelma Schoonmaker, The Irishman

2. Michael McCusker, Ford v. Ferrari

3. Fred Raskin, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

4. Lee Smith, 1917

5. John Poll, Bombshell
   —

6. Trey Edward Shults and Isaac Hagy, Waves

7. Jennifer Lame, Marriage Story

8. Maryann Brandon and Stefan Grube, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

9. Melanie Oliver, Cats

10. Greg O’Bryant, The Report

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

1. Vivian Baker, Jaime Leigh McIntosh, Anne Morgan and Cristina Waltz, Bombshell

2. Jeremy Woodhead, Judy

3. Uxue Laguardia and Niamh O’Loan, Cats

4. Debra Denson, Carla Farmer, Stacey Morris and Vera Steimberg Moder, Dolemite Is My Name

5. Belinda Anderson and Angie Wells, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
   —

6. Kay Georgiou and Nicki Ledermann, Joker

7. Sacha Carter, Paul Gooch and David White, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil

8. Janine Rath and Heba Thorisdottir, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

9. Fríða Aradóttir and Jennifer Bell, Little Women

10. Lizzie Georglou and Elizabeth Yianni-Georgiou, Rocketman

Best Original Score

1. John Williams, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

2. Thomas Newman, 1917

3. Alexandre Desplat, Little Women

4. Marco Beltrami, Ford v. Ferrari

5. Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, Waves
   —

6. Randy Newman, Marriage Story

7. Scott Bomar, Dolemite Is My Name

8. Nate Heller, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

9. Carter Burwell, The Good Liar

10. Danny Elfman, Dumbo

Best Production Design

1. Nancy Haigh and Barbara Ling, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

2. Dennis Gassner, 1917

3. Regina Graves and Bob Shaw, The Irishman

4. Eve Stewart, Cats

5. Rick Carter and Kevin Jenkins, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
   —

6. David Hindle and Christian Huband, The Aeronauts

7. Claire Kaufman, Little Women

8. Dominic Capon and Patrick Tatopoulos, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil

9. François Audouy and Peter Lando, Ford v. Ferrari

10. Clay A. Griffith and Lisa K. Sessions, Dolemite Is My Name

Best Sound Editing

1. David Acord and Matthew Wood, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

2. Eric A. Norris and Donald Sylvester, Ford v. Ferrari

3. The team from 1917

4. Shannon Mills and Samson Neslund, Avengers: Endgame

5. Harry Cohen and Leo Marcil, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
   —

6. The team from Cats

7. Saoirse Christopherson and Lee Walpole, The Aeronauts

8. Teresa Eckton, J.R. Grubbs, Kimberly Patrick and Dee Selby, Captain Marvel

9. Philip Stockton, The Irishman

10. Craig Henighan, Terminator: Dark Fate

Best Sound Mixing

1. Ben Burtt and Andy Nelson, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

2. Richard Bullock, Jr., Paul Massey and Steven Morrow, Ford v. Ferrari

3. Scott Millan, 1917

4. Michael Minkler, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

5. Simon Hayes, Cats
   —

6. Tom Johnson, Juan Peralta and Douglas Parker, Avengers: Endgame

7. Stuart Hilliker and Lee Walpole, The Aeronauts

8. Tod A. Maitland, The Irishman

9. Paul Cotterell and Johnathan Rush, Judy

10. John Hayes, Rocketman

Best Visual Effects

1. Roger Guyett and Dominic Tuohy, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

2. Dan DeLeeuw, Russell Earl, Kelly Port and Daniel Sudick, Avengers: Endgame

3. Pablo Helman and Jiwoong Kim, The Irishman

4. The team from Cats

5. Romain Arnoux, Louis Morin and Jean-François Ferland, The Aeronauts
   —

6. Daniel Sudick and Christopher Townsend, Captain Marvel

7. Robert Legato, Elliot Newman and Adam Valdez, The Lion King

8. The team from 1917

9. The team from Terminator: Dark Fate

10. Mark Hawker, Bryan Hirota and Bill Westenhofer, Gemini Man

2018 Oscar Winners

Glenn, Richard and Bradley, you wuz robbed.

BEST PICTURE
Green Book

BEST DIRECTOR
Alfonso Cuarón, Roma

BEST ACTRESS
Olivia Colman, The Favourite

BEST ACTOR
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali, Green Book

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Green Book

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
BlacKkKlansman

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Black Panther

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Shallow,” A Star Is Born

BEST FILM EDITING
Bohemian Rhapsody

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Roma (Mexico)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Free Solo

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Roma

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Black Panther

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
First Man

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Black Panther

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Vice

BEST SOUND MIXING
Bohemian Rhapsody

BEST SOUND EDITING
Bohemian Rhapsody

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
Period. End of Sentence

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
Bao

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
Skin

FINAL 2018 Oscar Winner Predictions

At last!

It feels like an eternity ago that I was predicting the likes of Beautiful Boy, The Front Runner and Peterloo for Oscar nominations. Now, here we are, with that trio long out of the picture and Roma riding high as Black Panther and Green Book lurk around the corner, hoping to score the big upset for the top prize.

There is no shortage of uncertainty lingering over this year’s races. While a handful of contenders, including Alfonso Cuaron in Best Director and “Shallow” in Best Original Song (perhaps the lone prize A Star Is Born goes home with), seem like the surest of bets, there are far more toss-ups at hand than runaway victories. Even Mahershala Ali and Rami Malek, who have all but steamrolled the major precursors of late, shouldn’t feel entirely secure.

Films like Black Panther, BlackKklansman and The Favourite, all entering the big night with a plethora of nominations, could find themselves basking in Oscar glory or shut out altogether. Should The Favourite fall short in all 10 of its bids (which I am predicting to be the case), it will join the unfortunate likes of American Hustle, Gangs of New York and True Grit, all of which conked out 0-for-10 at their respective ceremonies.

As for the technical categories, they could go in so many different directions, with plausible cases to even be made for First Man and Mary Poppins Returns, both of which spent much of the awards season stumbling.

With that said, here's my hunch on how the evening goes down…

BEST PICTURE

1. Roma

2. Green Book

3. Black Panther

4. BlacKkKlansman

5. Bohemian Rhapsody

6. A Star Is Born

7. The Favourite

8. Vice

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Alfonso Cuarón, Roma

2. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman

3. Pawel Pawlikowski, Cold War

4. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite

5. Adam McKay, Vice

BEST ACTRESS

1. Glenn Close, The Wife

2. Olivia Colman, The Favourite

3. Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born

4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

5. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma

BEST ACTOR

1. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

2. Christian Bale, Vice

3. Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born

4. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

5. Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

2. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

3. Amy Adams, Vice

4. Marina de Tavira, Roma

5. Emma Stone, The Favourite

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book

2. Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born

3. Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

4. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman

5. Sam Rockwell, Vice

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Roma

2. Green Book

3. The Favourite

4. First Reformed

5. Vice

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. BlacKkKlansman

2. If Beale Street Could Talk

3. Can You Ever Forgive Me?

4. A Star Is Born

5. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. Black Panther

2. BlacKkKlansman

3. If Beale Street Could Talk

4. Mary Poppins Returns

5. Isle of Dogs

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. “Shallow,” A Star Is Born

2. “All the Stars,” Black Panther

3. “I’ll Fight,” RBG

4. “The Place Where Lost Things Go,” Mary Poppins Returns

5. “When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings,” The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

BEST FILM EDITING

1. BlacKkKlansman

2. Bohemian Rhapsody

3. Vice

4. The Favourite

5. Green Book

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

1. Roma (Mexico)

2. Cold War (Poland)

3. Never Look Away (Germany)

4. Capernaum (Lebanon)

5. Shoplifters (Japan)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

2. Isle of Dogs

3. Incredibles 2

4. Mirai

5. Ralph Breaks the Internet

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. RBG

2. Free Solo

3. Minding the Gap

4. Hale County This Morning, This Evening

5. Of Fathers and Sons

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. Roma

2. Cold War

3. The Favourite

4. Never Look Away

5. A Star Is Born

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Black Panther

2. The Favourite

3. Roma

4. Mary Poppins Returns

5. First Man

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. First Man

2. Avengers: Infinity War

3. Ready Player One

4. Solo: A Star Wars Story

5. Christopher Robin

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. Black Panther

2. The Favourite

3. Mary Poppins Returns

4. Mary Queen of Scots

5. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

1. Vice

2. Mary Queen of Scots

3. Border

BEST SOUND MIXING

1. Bohemian Rhapsody

2. First Man

3. Black Panther

4. Roma

5. A Star Is Born

BEST SOUND EDITING

1. Black Panther

2. First Man

3. Bohemian Rhapsody

4. Roma

5. A Quiet Place

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

1. A Night at the Garden

2. Lifeboat

3. Black Sheep

4. End Game

5. Period. End of Sentence

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM

1. Animal Behavior

2. Weekends

3. Bao

4. One Small Step

5. Late Afternoon

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM

1. Detainment

2. Mother

3. Fauve

4. Marguerite

5. Skin