2025 SAG Actor Awards Nomination Predictions

Best Motion Picture Ensemble

1. One Battle After Another

2. Sinners

3. Marty Supreme

4. Hamnet

5. Wicked: For Good
   —

6. Jay Kelly

7. Frankenstein

8. Sentimental Value

9. It Was Just an Accident

10. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

One Battle After Another, Sinners, Marty Supreme and Hamnet should be safe bets to make the cut here - should any miss, it will be a startling gut punch, on the level of The Brutalist’s snub last year.

The suspense likely lies with that final slot. Wicked was so adored with the last SAG awards that Jonathan Bailey, out of nowhere, made the cut for an individual nomination. Surely, that love will lessen this year, given Wicked: For Good’s more lukewarm critical and commercial reception - but will there be just enough affection to still land it an Ensemble nom? I suspect there just might, in part given the lack of a clear alternative.

Jay Kelly, for instance, sports a cast of beloved actors and could see individual SAG noms for both George Clooney and Adam Sandler, but hasn’t exactly proven an awards season juggernaut. Frankenstein has had a more robust presence but not so much in terms of cast recognition - at Critics’ Choice, for instance, it earned 11 noms but couldn’t break into their Casting/Ensemble lineup of six. Some are predicting Sentimental Value but I worry about a slight underperformance with SAG, given their penchant for being lukewarm on international films.

Ultimately, I do go with Wicked: For Good, in part because I also see Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande hanging on for individual SAG noms, even if their Oscar hopes are looking increasingly uncertain.

Best Female Actor in a Leading Role

1. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

2. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

3. Emma Stone, Bugonia

4. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good

5. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another
   —

6. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value

7. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue

8. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt

9. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee

10. Jennifer Lawrence, Die My Love

Where I have confidence in four of the Best Ensemble contenders, I only feel certainty about Byrne and Buckley in Best Female Actor in a Leading Role.

After all, this is a category where we’ve seen the likes of Pamela Anderson, Jennifer Hudson and Amy Adams surface in recent years. We could be in for comparable curveballs, like Roberts making the cut, despite After the Hunt’s collapse as an awards season contender, or Hudson emerging, given the positive audience reception to Song Sung Blue.

In the end, I think Stone makes it here - Bugonia may be divisive but it’s also widely seen (more so than say, The Testament of Ann Lee) and often, earlier releases will fare well here (SAG nominee Judi Dench in Victoria & Abdul, for instance, comes to mind). If, as I suspect, Wicked: For Good cracks Best Ensemble, there is a good chance Erivo follows suit with an individual nom. That leaves Infiniti and Reinsve and again, I fear (hopefully, wrongfully so) Sentimental Value may not resonate quite as much with SAG as it has critics’ organizations.

Best Male Actor in a Leading Role

1. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another

2. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme

3. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon

4. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

5. George Clooney, Jay Kelly
   —

6. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

7. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams

8. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent

9. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein

10. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine

Much like with the top prize, this rings of a race with four reasonably sure bets and a doubtful jump ball for the final slot. With AMPAS, I suspect Moura, on the heels of a likely Golden Globe win and all of the buzz generated from that, will make the final five. Here, I’m inclined to give the edge to Clooney, though could also fathom White making the cut, ala Hudson for Respect and Taron Egerton for Rocketman. Perhaps Edgerton will land at BAFTA? Sadly, I’m a little skeptical of his odds here.

Best Female Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

2. Amy Madigan, Weapons

3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value

4. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good

5. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine
   —

6. Odessa A'zion, Marty Supreme

7. Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

8. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners

9. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value

10. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme

We are blessed to have such a busy Best Supporting Actress race this year! Such, however, makes it hard to confidently make predictions.

I think Taylor and Madigan are reasonably sure bets, but there are so many contenders that I could fathom a Regina King-level snub of either. Despite my hesitation to predict much Sentimental Value at SAG, I do think Fanning scores a nom, while I’m more bearish on Lilleaas. If Erivo’s in, Grande will be too. And if Blunt could land SAG recognition for The Girl on the Train and Mary Poppins Returns and even win for A Quiet Place, I have to think she’s a formidable contender here, even if the performance is polarizing and the film flopped.

That said, any of these 10 could undoubtedly make the cut, as could Regina Hall. SAG has a curious history of recognizing actors whose last names appear early in the alphabet - if that again proves the case, A'zion could have it made in the shade. And Close is such a SAG mainstay, with two wins over 10 career nominations, but can she overcome her film’s middling presence so far this season? I’m not so sure, especially with the first two Knives Out scoring nothing at SAG, though if anyone could, it’s a beloved icon like Close.

Best Male Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another

2. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

3. Paul Mescal, Hamnet

4. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value

5. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly
   —

6. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein

7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners

8. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good

9. Miles Caton, Sinners

10. Billy Crudup, Jay Kelly

Like in Best Male Actor in a Leading Role, the suspense here looks to be exclusively around that fifth slot, with Sandler and Elordi closely contending. My feeling is if Sandler could score a SAG nom for Hustle, he can surely do the same for Jay Kelly. On the other hand, at this point, Frankenstein feels more relevant than Jay Kelly in the overall awards season. If Sinners resonates with SAG voters to an even greater extent than anticipated, it could be Lindo or Caton taking that spot. And yes, after his appearance last year, I suppose we shouldn’t completely count out a Bailey return!

2024 SAG Awards Winner Predictions

Best Motion Picture Ensemble

1. Anora

2. Conclave

3. Wicked

4. A Complete Unknown

5. Emilia Pérez

Under different circumstances, Emilia Pérez could have proven a legit contender for the win here. Alas, that is no longer the case, even with Zoe Saldaña remaining a commanding favorite in her category.

Unlike Emilia Pérez, A Complete Unknown cannot be counted out. It does, after all, have three individual acting bids and has proven a critical and commercial hit - but this rings to me as more of a barn burner among the other trio of contenders.

Conclave has scored no shortage of Ensemble prizes this awards season, including from Critics’ Choice and National Board of Review. It was a little surprising to see Isabella Rossellini, a veteran who has worked with countless actors, miss in SAG Supporting Actress when she’s surfaced just about everywhere else. Could that be indicative of slightly soft support for the film? Maybe - or, more likely, maybe not, given SAG’s odd alphabetical bias, where an overwhelming majority (17 out of 20) of the acting nominees came from A-M on the ballot.

It was even more surprising to see Jonathan Bailey make the Supporting Actor cut here. Could this mean SAG voters are particularly head over heels for Wicked - or did Bailey simply benefit from being listed high on the ballot? Either way, as one of the year’s most resounding smashes, Wicked could take this.

Alas, the momentum is unquestionably with Anora, which scored Best Picture at Critics’ Choice and, more importantly, honors at PGA and DGA. For now, I remain unconvinced the film is a shoo-in for the Best Picture Oscar - but that may change if it prevails here. Frankly, I can fathom each of Anora, Conclave and Wicked winning about 30 percent of the vote here. It’s an all but impossible race to forecast with confidence. But one thing that is certain - the buzz around Anora, which may have slightly stalled after the Golden Globes, is accelerating at a far faster pace than the momentum for its competitors.

Best Female Actor in a Leading Role

1. Demi Moore, The Substance

2. Mikey Madison, Anora

3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked

4. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl

5. Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez

SAG has a history of honoring beloved veteran actresses in this category, regardless of whether they go on to take the Oscar (e.g. Viola Davis, Glenn Close, Meryl Streep for Doubt and Julie Christie). Accordingly, Moore, who has been in the business for the past four decades, should be in good shape. That said, she marks the lone nomination for her film here, Anora is soaring and Madison just prevailed at BAFTA. Is the buzz robust enough for Madison to score the upset? Color me skeptical with this particular body but it’s hardly impossible.

Best Male Actor in a Leading Role

1. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown

2. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist

3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave

4. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing

5. Daniel Craig, Queer

Of the two Lead showdowns at SAG, this actually strikes me as the more suspenseful. There is a very real possibility Chalamet edges out Brody here, even if the latter remains favored at the Oscars. A Complete Unknown ran the table with nominations here, scoring four in total. Compare that to The Brutalist, which not only missed in Ensemble but Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress too. Of the 30 turns that have triumphed in this category, only five marked the lone nomination from their film (in Lead Actress, that number is double - 10). Perhaps the alphabet issue did Felicity Jones and Guy Pearce in and SAG affection for The Brutalist isn’t actually lackluster. Regardless, the love for A Complete Unknown is undeniable here and I’m going with Chalamet as the evening’s big (only?) surprise.

Best Female Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez

2. Ariana Grande, Wicked

3. Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown

4. Jamie Lee Curtis, The Last Showgirl

5. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson

I’d figured if Rossellini was to score a trophy somewhere, it may have been here. Alas, no. Saldaña has clearly escaped the Emilia Pérez downfall reasonably unscathed. In fact, many may feel sympathy for her having to deal with the shitshow surrounding her film. She remains an overwhelming favorite, in part because an alternative to her isn’t clear.

Best Male Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

2. Yura Borisov, Anora

3. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown

4. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice

5. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked

The steamroll shall continue.

Best Motion Picture Stunt Ensemble

1. Wicked

2. Deadpool & Wolverine

3. The Fall Guy

4. Dune: Part Two

5. Gladiator II

This category could prove a nice way to honor Wicked when it’s not clearly favored on any of its other SAG bids. That said, it’s a race just as tough to forecast as the top prize. Anything could prevail, though the affection for Gladiator II has been fairly lackluster all awards season, plus the first Dune didn’t win this category - so I’m not inclined to predict either of them. The Fall Guy is about a stuntman and, accordingly, jam-packed with stunts. In theory, it should be a formidable contender but its commercial reception was so lukewarm that I hesitate to think it’ll prevail.

In the end, I’m seesawing between the other two, which just so happen to be two of the year’s biggest hits. Of the 17 films that have triumphed here, five have been comic book adaptations - with four consecutive wins coming from 2017 to 2020. Since then, Black Widow, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 have fallen short. Deadpool & Wolverine was more of a box office phenomenon than all of those contenders, so perhaps it’ll resonate more with voters - but I’m ultimately going with Wicked, which I have a tough time fathoming going home completely empty-handed.

2024 SAG Awards Nomination Predictions

Rankings are from most to least likely to be nominated:

Best Motion Picture Ensemble

1. Conclave

2. Wicked

3. Emilia Pérez

4. Sing Sing

5. Saturday Night
   —

6. The Brutalist

7. Anora

8. A Complete Unknown

9. Nickel Boys

10. His Three Daughters

Conclave, Emilia Pérez and Wicked ought to be safe - a snub for any of them, all undoubtedly widely seen by voters and sporting formidable casts, would be shocking. While Sing Sing’s momentum has dwindled somewhat, it’s an ensemble piece about the power of performance and should, you would think, resonate among actors. It’s that fifth slot that’s tough to project. Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown and Nickel Boys have no shortage of awards season buzz but I suspect it may be Saturday Night that makes the cut. It recalls the likes of Bobby and The Butler, pictures with sprawling ensembles that flatlined as serious Oscar contenders but nonetheless surfaced here.

Best Female Actor in a Leading Role

1. Demi Moore, The Substance

2. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked

3. Mikey Madison, Anora

4. Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez

5. Kate Winslet, Lee
   —

6. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl

7. Angelina Jolie, Maria

8. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths

9. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here

10. Amy Adams, Nightbitch

Torres may have just scored the Drama Actress Golden Globe - a huge development, considering only two recipients of that prize have not gone on to Oscar nominations (and one of them, Kate Winslet in 2008, was instead nominated and won for another film) - but she’ll nonetheless be a longshot here, given SAG’s notorious aversion to turns from foreign language films. Her mother, the legendary Fernanda Montenegro, was not a SAG nominee for Central Station in 1998, nor was Isabelle Huppert, another recent Drama Actress Globe winner.

Erivo, Gascón, Madison and Moore ring as reasonably safe, given the robust buzz for their turns and films. My hunch is that fifth slot goes to one of the past Oscar winners - and it might just be Winslet, given the aggressive campaign she’s running, plus SAG’s penchant for recognizing early releases (e.g. Jennifer Hudson in Respect and Judi Dench in Victoria & Abdul). Kidman and Jolie are right up there, though, and don’t forget Adams managed to make the SAG cut for Hillbilly Elegy. Jean-Baptiste has seen a gangbusters run with the critics’ awards but SAG historically isn’t keen on Mike Leigh pictures. She wasn’t a SAG nominee for Secrets & Lies, nor was Sally Hawkins for Happy-Go-Lucky.

Best Male Actor in a Leading Role

1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist

2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave

3. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown

4. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing

5. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love
   —

6. Hugh Grant, Heretic

7. Daniel Craig, Queer

8. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man

9. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain

10. Glen Powell, Hit Man

This, too, rings of a lineup with a somewhat safe quartet and then a jump ball for that final spot. There’s a case to be made for any of the gents above but I’m going with a curveball. Bob Marley: One Love may have been released nearly an entire year ago but it was a commercial success and, despite lukewarm reviews for the film itself, scored positive notices for its leading man. Ben-Adir made the BAFTA longlist for Leading Actor and SAG has a history of remembering performances forgotten by other precursors. Thus, it shouldn’t be a jaw-dropper if he surfaces here.

Best Female Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez

2. Ariana Grande, Wicked

3. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave

4. Margaret Qualley, The Substance

5. Jamie Lee Curtis, The Last Showgirl
   —

6. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson

7. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist

8. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez

9. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys

10. Joan Chen, Didi

Grande, Rossellini and Saldaña are highly likely for recognition here and everywhere else moving forward. Qualley should be in decent shape too, at least at SAG - the AMPAS aversion to horror does make me nervous for her/her film’s chances come Oscar noms morning. So, yet again, the real suspense may be for the fifth slot. Emilia Pérez has plenty of momentum but I hesitate to predict Gomez when SAG has ignored her for every season of Only Murders in the Building (though that could change this year). I’m also wary of predicting Deadwyler when The Piano Lesson has so struggled to stay relevant in the awards season. I think Jones is a nominee at BAFTA and the Oscars but I’m less confident here. Ultimately, I’m going with another dark horse who also happened to make the BAFTA longlist.

Curtis has worked with just about everyone in the industry and it was SAG that made her a serious contender for Everything Everywhere All at Once. It’s possible not enough voters have seen The Last Showgirl and that could doom her (again, early releases tend to fare better than late ones) - but in a crowded and uncertain field, high name rec and goodwill could be enough to eek out a nomination (though I’m not sure it’ll translate at the Oscars). Beyond the names above, Monica Barbaro, Elle Fanning, Carol Kane, Natasha Lyonne and Adriana Paz could also show up.

Best Male Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

2. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II

3. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist

4. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown

5. Stanley Tucci, Conclave
   —

6. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing

7. Yura Borisov, Anora

8. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice

9. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked

10. Mark Eydelshteyn, Anora

With Culkin seemingly steamrolling to victory, this isn’t the most exciting of the acting fields but in terms of filling out the category, there remains suspense. He, Washington and Pearce should be in good shape here, though I wonder if the sleepy reception for Gladiator II could trip Washington up on Oscar noms morning. I suspect Norton is a nominee would note, for what it’s worth, that SAG ignored him for both Primal Fear and American History X. In a contest between a beloved character actor who’s worked with everyone under the sun (Tucci) and two relative newcomers (Borisov and Maclin), I’m inclined to go with the former, at least here.

2022 SAG Award Winner Predictions

Best Motion Picture Ensemble

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once

2. The Banshees of Inisherin

3. The Fabelmans

4. Women Talking

5. Babylon

With waning awards season momentum and no individual acting noms, it’s all but impossible to make a case for Babylon or Women Talking having a prayer here. Likewise, while Paul Dano made the cut (and, side note, should’ve done the same with AMPAS), the snubs of Michelle Williams and Judd Hirsch sadly don’t bode well for The Fabelmans’ chances of taking the top prize.

Both sporting quartets of acting bids, The Banshees of Inisherin and Everything Everywhere All at Once are the overwhelming forces to be reckoned with. To date, only one film - Sideways - has taken Best Ensemble honors with a four-person cast. This, coupled with the wins I suspect are on the horizon for Michelle Yeoh and Ke Huy Quan, leans me in the direction of Everything Everywhere.

But Banshees is hardly to be underestimated and a win early in the evening for Kerry Condon and/or Barry Keoghan would bode very well for its odds of taking top honors.

Best Female Actor in a Leading Role

1. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

2. Cate Blanchett, TÁR

3. Viola Davis, The Woman King

4. Ana de Armas, Blonde

5. Danielle Deadwyler, Till

Sublime as she is, Deadwyler won’t be taking this, nor will de Armas. Davis has had a remarkable run with SAG, triumphing on five out of six individual noms (three for film, two for TV), but even with that track record, it’ll be challenging for her to overcome the Oscar snub - and it doesn’t help that The Woman King is absent from Best Ensemble.

Instead, no surprise, this will be a barn burner between the two front-runners. My gut says Blanchett ultimately takes home her third career Oscar but not before ever-so-narrowly falling short to Yeoh here.

Best Male Actor in a Leading Role

1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale

2. Austin Butler, Elvis

3. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin

4. Adam Sandler, Hustle

5. Bill Nighy, Living

With Best Actress, for all intents and purposes, having proven a two-person race, Best Actor has more felt like an exciting three-way affair - that is until BAFTA, where Farrell, seemingly well-positioned for victory, fell short to Butler, even with Bashees co-stars Condon and Keoghan triumphing in the Supporting fields. It was a true gut punch of a loss, leaving Farrell with increasingly long odds of prevailing at SAG and/or the Oscars and establishing this race as more of a one-on-one showdown.

Had Elvis somehow made the Best Ensemble cut, I’d be inclined to predict Butler. Alas, I do give the slight edge to Fraser over the newcomer. He’s long been in the business, worked with countless SAG members and is seen as sorely due for recognition. It’s a close call, however, and you can feel momentum building, to an extent, for Butler and his film. My hunch - Fraser at SAG, Butler at the Oscars.

Best Female Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

2. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin

3. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once

4. Hong Chau, The Whale

5. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Despite Bassett’s victories with the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards, it’s been hard to shake the feeling that an Oscar win for this turn, marvelous as it is, may prove elusive. The BAFTA win for Condon, while not a surprise, leaves me all the more convinced this may not be Bassett’s year.

That said…I do think she’s still taking SAG! They strike me as a more populist and favorable voting body to Bassett than the likes of the HFPA and Critics Choice crowd, both of which embraced her. Condon could keep the momentum going and triumph - and if she does, she’s winning the Oscar - but odds remain strong that Bassett takes this.

If there’s a dark horse, it’s perhaps Curtis, who’s worked with everyone in the industry and is running one hell of a spirited campaign.

Best Male Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

2. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin

3. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin

4. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans

5. Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse

Until BAFTA, this was a race largely devoid of suspense, with Quan poised to steamroll to Oscar glory. While so-called “vote-splitting” is, more often than not, not a real factor in awards races, it nonetheless seemed challenging for one of the Banshees gents to triumph over the other…and yet that’s precisely what happened as the Brits provided Keoghan an upset victory.

With SAG, Quan still strikes me as the favorite - frankly, if he falls short, Everything Everywhere probably isn’t winning anything here and that’s awfully tough to fathom - but a clear alternative to the front-runner has finally emerged and the Oscar race is destined to be a close one.

Best Motion Picture Stunt Ensemble

1. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

2. Top Gun: Maverick

3. The Woman King

4. Avatar: The Way of Water

5. The Batman

Four of the past five years have seen a superhero film triumph in this category. Avatar: The Way of Water and Top Gun: Maverick may have the Best Picture noms but that didn’t mean much for the likes of past nominees/losers Dune, Dunkirk and Ford v Ferrari, among others. Bank on Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, especially if Bassett’s winning.

2022 SAG Awards Nomination Predictions

The SAG Awards are truly the awards season crème de la crème, often having the finest taste among precursors, with a penchant for throwing sorely needed curveballs to rattle the pre-Oscar landscape.

This is, after all, the same inspired body that preferred The Birdcage over The English Patient in Best Ensemble; honored the amazing likes of Stockard Channing in Smoke and Cloris Leachman in Spanglish when few others took notice; and provided crucial momentum to Parasite in its bid for awards season glory (ditto CODA last year).

Will SAG have more surprises in store this time around? Let’s dive into each category.

Best Motion Picture Ensemble

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once

2. The Banshees of Inisherin

3. The Fabelmans

4. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

5. The Woman King
   —

6. Women Talking

7. Babylon

8. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

9. Top Gun: Maverick

10. Elvis

The current Best Picture front-runners - Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Banshees of Inisherin, and The Fabelmans - should be reasonably safe here. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, with its sprawling, starry ensemble and rave reviews, also strikes me as a likely bet, though I hesitate a little, given the first Knives Out didn’t make the SAG cut. That final slot could go a bunch of different ways - and beyond these half-dozen contenders, All Quiet on the Western Front, RRR, and Triangle of Sadness can’t be counted out. I lean ever-so-slightly toward The Woman King over Women Talking and Babylon. Actors adore Viola Davis (see more below) and her ensembles tend to fare well here too, with The Help triumphing and Doubt, Fences, and Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom scoring nominations.

Best Female Actor in a Leading Role

1. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

2. Cate Blanchett, TÁR

3. Viola Davis, The Woman King

4. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans

5. Aubrey Plaza, Emily the Criminal
   —

6. Margot Robbie, Babylon

7. Danielle Deadwyler, Till

8. Ana de Armas, Blonde

9. Emma Thompson, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande

10. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light

The Oscar favorites, Yeoh and Blanchett, are sure to score SAG noms - as is Davis, a six-time winner here (five individual wins, three in film and two TV, plus Ensemble for The Help). Williams may not be quite as safe (she did miss at SAG for Blue Valentine) but, odds are, she’s making the cut here too. Here’s another jump ball, however, for that fifth slot. The safest bet is to go with Robbie or Deadwyler but I’m inclined to lean toward a true jaw-dropper - Aubrey Plaza, who surfaced early on in the awards season with bids at the Gothams and Indie Spirits. Not to be overlooked, Emily the Criminal recently hit Netflix, just as SAG voters are taking to their ballots, and Plaza’s got some extra buzz (and another potential SAG nom) for her acclaimed turn on The White Lotus: Sicily. This may not come to fruition but, considering this is a body that’s given Best Actress noms to the long-shot likes of Sarah Silverman (I Smile Back), Hilary Swank (Conviction,) and Gena Rowlands (Unhook the Stars), it’s a plenty plausible appearance.

Best Male Actor in a Leading Role

1. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin

2. Brendan Fraser, The Whale

3. Austin Butler, Elvis

4. Bill Nighy, Living

5. Paul Mescal, Aftersun
   —

6. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection

7. Ralph Fiennes, The Menu

8. Adam Sandler, Hustle

9. Adam Driver, White Noise

10. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick

Not to keep repeating myself but…watch that last slot. Farrell, Fraser, and Butler will cruise to nominations here, as should Nighy, whose film is backed by the awards season masters at Sony Pictures Classics. It’s challenging to forecast who joins them when the front-runners, Farrell and Fraser in particular, have so dominated the Best Actor conversation and precursors thus far. He may have missed at the Globes (though, frankly, who gives a shit) but Mescal has otherwise had a fairly healthy run, not winning much of note but often showing up as a critics’ award nominee, including with Critics’ Choice. And A24 is running a robust campaign for him, though they’re doing the same for Pope, who missed at Critics’ Choice but did land at the Globes. My hunch is the slot does ultimately go to one of the A24 gents, though Fiennes or Sandler could sneak in there as a surprise. I don’t see Cruise surfacing here, though an Oscar nom remains in the cards.

Best Female Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin

2. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

3. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once

4. Janelle Monáe, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

5. Carey Mulligan, She Said
   —

6. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once

7. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness

8. Keke Palmer, Nope

9. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking

10. Hong Chau, The Whale

Watch that fifth slot. And fourth. And third. Actually, just about anything could happen in this race, though Condon should be a safe bet. Bassett and/or Curtis may miss the Oscar cut but they’re true actor’s actors and have surfaced at SAG before (Bassett for Ruby’s Bucket of Blood & Betty and Coretta, Curtis for True Lies). Monáe has scored MVP notices (and a Critics’ Choice bid) for Glass Onion, a film very much in contention for Best Ensemble honors; Mulligan’s earned raves (and a Globe nom) for She Said, a contender that has somewhat dwindled in momentum but hardly disappeared; Hsu has a Critics’ Choice nom and plethora of praise for a picture that only continues to sky-rocket in momentum…there are strong, valid cases to make for all of these contenders and more. My gut says this quintet but it could just as easily be a combo of Condon, Bassett, Hsu, Buckley, and Chau or perhaps a fivesome of Condon, Curtis, Monae, Palmer, and Foy. It’s a category blissfully brimming with suspense. Intriguing, if a tad less unpredictable, is the landscape over in…

Best Male Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin

3. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans

4. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans

5. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
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6. Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse

7. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway

8. Brad Pitt, Babylon

9. Mark Rylance, Bones & All

10. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking

This category is increasingly giving me 1949 Best Supporting Actress vibes. That was a lineup that saw two films (Come to the Stable and Pinky) score noms for a pair of their performers (Celeste Holm & Elsa Lanchester and Ethel Barrymore & Ethel Waters), only for the fifth contender (Mercedes McCambridge in All the King’s Men) to prevail, and perhaps comfortably at that. That said, this quintet is hardly locked in, with only Quan and Gleeson ringing as true shoo-ins. Redmayne, who surfaced at the Globes, could prove a Jared Leto in The Little Things-level contender, and Henry, who’s scored some career-best notices and appearances at critics’ awards, continues to be in the conversation. I can fathom a scenario where Redmayne edges out Keoghan here, only for the latter to still triumph on Oscar noms morning…but I’ll stick with the latter making the cut at both.