2024 SAG Awards Winner Predictions

Best Motion Picture Ensemble

1. Anora

2. Conclave

3. Wicked

4. A Complete Unknown

5. Emilia Pérez

Under different circumstances, Emilia Pérez could have proven a legit contender for the win here. Alas, that is no longer the case, even with Zoe Saldaña remaining a commanding favorite in her category.

Unlike Emilia Pérez, A Complete Unknown cannot be counted out. It does, after all, have three individual acting bids and has proven a critical and commercial hit - but this rings to me as more of a barn burner among the other trio of contenders.

Conclave has scored no shortage of Ensemble prizes this awards season, including from Critics’ Choice and National Board of Review. It was a little surprising to see Isabella Rossellini, a veteran who has worked with countless actors, miss in SAG Supporting Actress when she’s surfaced just about everywhere else. Could that be indicative of slightly soft support for the film? Maybe - or, more likely, maybe not, given SAG’s odd alphabetical bias, where an overwhelming majority (17 out of 20) of the acting nominees came from A-M on the ballot.

It was even more surprising to see Jonathan Bailey make the Supporting Actor cut here. Could this mean SAG voters are particularly head over heels for Wicked - or did Bailey simply benefit from being listed high on the ballot? Either way, as one of the year’s most resounding smashes, Wicked could take this.

Alas, the momentum is unquestionably with Anora, which scored Best Picture at Critics’ Choice and, more importantly, honors at PGA and DGA. For now, I remain unconvinced the film is a shoo-in for the Best Picture Oscar - but that may change if it prevails here. Frankly, I can fathom each of Anora, Conclave and Wicked winning about 30 percent of the vote here. It’s an all but impossible race to forecast with confidence. But one thing that is certain - the buzz around Anora, which may have slightly stalled after the Golden Globes, is accelerating at a far faster pace than the momentum for its competitors.

Best Female Actor in a Leading Role

1. Demi Moore, The Substance

2. Mikey Madison, Anora

3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked

4. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl

5. Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez

SAG has a history of honoring beloved veteran actresses in this category, regardless of whether they go on to take the Oscar (e.g. Viola Davis, Glenn Close, Meryl Streep for Doubt and Julie Christie). Accordingly, Moore, who has been in the business for the past four decades, should be in good shape. That said, she marks the lone nomination for her film here, Anora is soaring and Madison just prevailed at BAFTA. Is the buzz robust enough for Madison to score the upset? Color me skeptical with this particular body but it’s hardly impossible.

Best Male Actor in a Leading Role

1. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown

2. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist

3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave

4. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing

5. Daniel Craig, Queer

Of the two Lead showdowns at SAG, this actually strikes me as the more suspenseful. There is a very real possibility Chalamet edges out Brody here, even if the latter remains favored at the Oscars. A Complete Unknown ran the table with nominations here, scoring four in total. Compare that to The Brutalist, which not only missed in Ensemble but Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress too. Of the 30 turns that have triumphed in this category, only five marked the lone nomination from their film (in Lead Actress, that number is double - 10). Perhaps the alphabet issue did Felicity Jones and Guy Pearce in and SAG affection for The Brutalist isn’t actually lackluster. Regardless, the love for A Complete Unknown is undeniable here and I’m going with Chalamet as the evening’s big (only?) surprise.

Best Female Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez

2. Ariana Grande, Wicked

3. Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown

4. Jamie Lee Curtis, The Last Showgirl

5. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson

I’d figured if Rossellini was to score a trophy somewhere, it may have been here. Alas, no. Saldaña has clearly escaped the Emilia Pérez downfall reasonably unscathed. In fact, many may feel sympathy for her having to deal with the shitshow surrounding her film. She remains an overwhelming favorite, in part because an alternative to her isn’t clear.

Best Male Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

2. Yura Borisov, Anora

3. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown

4. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice

5. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked

The steamroll shall continue.

Best Motion Picture Stunt Ensemble

1. Wicked

2. Deadpool & Wolverine

3. The Fall Guy

4. Dune: Part Two

5. Gladiator II

This category could prove a nice way to honor Wicked when it’s not clearly favored on any of its other SAG bids. That said, it’s a race just as tough to forecast as the top prize. Anything could prevail, though the affection for Gladiator II has been fairly lackluster all awards season, plus the first Dune didn’t win this category - so I’m not inclined to predict either of them. The Fall Guy is about a stuntman and, accordingly, jam-packed with stunts. In theory, it should be a formidable contender but its commercial reception was so lukewarm that I hesitate to think it’ll prevail.

In the end, I’m seesawing between the other two, which just so happen to be two of the year’s biggest hits. Of the 17 films that have triumphed here, five have been comic book adaptations - with four consecutive wins coming from 2017 to 2020. Since then, Black Widow, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 have fallen short. Deadpool & Wolverine was more of a box office phenomenon than all of those contenders, so perhaps it’ll resonate more with voters - but I’m ultimately going with Wicked, which I have a tough time fathoming going home completely empty-handed.

2022 SAG Award Winner Predictions

Best Motion Picture Ensemble

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once

2. The Banshees of Inisherin

3. The Fabelmans

4. Women Talking

5. Babylon

With waning awards season momentum and no individual acting noms, it’s all but impossible to make a case for Babylon or Women Talking having a prayer here. Likewise, while Paul Dano made the cut (and, side note, should’ve done the same with AMPAS), the snubs of Michelle Williams and Judd Hirsch sadly don’t bode well for The Fabelmans’ chances of taking the top prize.

Both sporting quartets of acting bids, The Banshees of Inisherin and Everything Everywhere All at Once are the overwhelming forces to be reckoned with. To date, only one film - Sideways - has taken Best Ensemble honors with a four-person cast. This, coupled with the wins I suspect are on the horizon for Michelle Yeoh and Ke Huy Quan, leans me in the direction of Everything Everywhere.

But Banshees is hardly to be underestimated and a win early in the evening for Kerry Condon and/or Barry Keoghan would bode very well for its odds of taking top honors.

Best Female Actor in a Leading Role

1. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

2. Cate Blanchett, TÁR

3. Viola Davis, The Woman King

4. Ana de Armas, Blonde

5. Danielle Deadwyler, Till

Sublime as she is, Deadwyler won’t be taking this, nor will de Armas. Davis has had a remarkable run with SAG, triumphing on five out of six individual noms (three for film, two for TV), but even with that track record, it’ll be challenging for her to overcome the Oscar snub - and it doesn’t help that The Woman King is absent from Best Ensemble.

Instead, no surprise, this will be a barn burner between the two front-runners. My gut says Blanchett ultimately takes home her third career Oscar but not before ever-so-narrowly falling short to Yeoh here.

Best Male Actor in a Leading Role

1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale

2. Austin Butler, Elvis

3. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin

4. Adam Sandler, Hustle

5. Bill Nighy, Living

With Best Actress, for all intents and purposes, having proven a two-person race, Best Actor has more felt like an exciting three-way affair - that is until BAFTA, where Farrell, seemingly well-positioned for victory, fell short to Butler, even with Bashees co-stars Condon and Keoghan triumphing in the Supporting fields. It was a true gut punch of a loss, leaving Farrell with increasingly long odds of prevailing at SAG and/or the Oscars and establishing this race as more of a one-on-one showdown.

Had Elvis somehow made the Best Ensemble cut, I’d be inclined to predict Butler. Alas, I do give the slight edge to Fraser over the newcomer. He’s long been in the business, worked with countless SAG members and is seen as sorely due for recognition. It’s a close call, however, and you can feel momentum building, to an extent, for Butler and his film. My hunch - Fraser at SAG, Butler at the Oscars.

Best Female Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

2. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin

3. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once

4. Hong Chau, The Whale

5. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Despite Bassett’s victories with the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards, it’s been hard to shake the feeling that an Oscar win for this turn, marvelous as it is, may prove elusive. The BAFTA win for Condon, while not a surprise, leaves me all the more convinced this may not be Bassett’s year.

That said…I do think she’s still taking SAG! They strike me as a more populist and favorable voting body to Bassett than the likes of the HFPA and Critics Choice crowd, both of which embraced her. Condon could keep the momentum going and triumph - and if she does, she’s winning the Oscar - but odds remain strong that Bassett takes this.

If there’s a dark horse, it’s perhaps Curtis, who’s worked with everyone in the industry and is running one hell of a spirited campaign.

Best Male Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

2. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin

3. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin

4. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans

5. Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse

Until BAFTA, this was a race largely devoid of suspense, with Quan poised to steamroll to Oscar glory. While so-called “vote-splitting” is, more often than not, not a real factor in awards races, it nonetheless seemed challenging for one of the Banshees gents to triumph over the other…and yet that’s precisely what happened as the Brits provided Keoghan an upset victory.

With SAG, Quan still strikes me as the favorite - frankly, if he falls short, Everything Everywhere probably isn’t winning anything here and that’s awfully tough to fathom - but a clear alternative to the front-runner has finally emerged and the Oscar race is destined to be a close one.

Best Motion Picture Stunt Ensemble

1. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

2. Top Gun: Maverick

3. The Woman King

4. Avatar: The Way of Water

5. The Batman

Four of the past five years have seen a superhero film triumph in this category. Avatar: The Way of Water and Top Gun: Maverick may have the Best Picture noms but that didn’t mean much for the likes of past nominees/losers Dune, Dunkirk and Ford v Ferrari, among others. Bank on Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, especially if Bassett’s winning.

2022 SAG Awards Nomination Predictions

The SAG Awards are truly the awards season crème de la crème, often having the finest taste among precursors, with a penchant for throwing sorely needed curveballs to rattle the pre-Oscar landscape.

This is, after all, the same inspired body that preferred The Birdcage over The English Patient in Best Ensemble; honored the amazing likes of Stockard Channing in Smoke and Cloris Leachman in Spanglish when few others took notice; and provided crucial momentum to Parasite in its bid for awards season glory (ditto CODA last year).

Will SAG have more surprises in store this time around? Let’s dive into each category.

Best Motion Picture Ensemble

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once

2. The Banshees of Inisherin

3. The Fabelmans

4. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

5. The Woman King
   —

6. Women Talking

7. Babylon

8. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

9. Top Gun: Maverick

10. Elvis

The current Best Picture front-runners - Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Banshees of Inisherin, and The Fabelmans - should be reasonably safe here. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, with its sprawling, starry ensemble and rave reviews, also strikes me as a likely bet, though I hesitate a little, given the first Knives Out didn’t make the SAG cut. That final slot could go a bunch of different ways - and beyond these half-dozen contenders, All Quiet on the Western Front, RRR, and Triangle of Sadness can’t be counted out. I lean ever-so-slightly toward The Woman King over Women Talking and Babylon. Actors adore Viola Davis (see more below) and her ensembles tend to fare well here too, with The Help triumphing and Doubt, Fences, and Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom scoring nominations.

Best Female Actor in a Leading Role

1. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

2. Cate Blanchett, TÁR

3. Viola Davis, The Woman King

4. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans

5. Aubrey Plaza, Emily the Criminal
   —

6. Margot Robbie, Babylon

7. Danielle Deadwyler, Till

8. Ana de Armas, Blonde

9. Emma Thompson, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande

10. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light

The Oscar favorites, Yeoh and Blanchett, are sure to score SAG noms - as is Davis, a six-time winner here (five individual wins, three in film and two TV, plus Ensemble for The Help). Williams may not be quite as safe (she did miss at SAG for Blue Valentine) but, odds are, she’s making the cut here too. Here’s another jump ball, however, for that fifth slot. The safest bet is to go with Robbie or Deadwyler but I’m inclined to lean toward a true jaw-dropper - Aubrey Plaza, who surfaced early on in the awards season with bids at the Gothams and Indie Spirits. Not to be overlooked, Emily the Criminal recently hit Netflix, just as SAG voters are taking to their ballots, and Plaza’s got some extra buzz (and another potential SAG nom) for her acclaimed turn on The White Lotus: Sicily. This may not come to fruition but, considering this is a body that’s given Best Actress noms to the long-shot likes of Sarah Silverman (I Smile Back), Hilary Swank (Conviction,) and Gena Rowlands (Unhook the Stars), it’s a plenty plausible appearance.

Best Male Actor in a Leading Role

1. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin

2. Brendan Fraser, The Whale

3. Austin Butler, Elvis

4. Bill Nighy, Living

5. Paul Mescal, Aftersun
   —

6. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection

7. Ralph Fiennes, The Menu

8. Adam Sandler, Hustle

9. Adam Driver, White Noise

10. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick

Not to keep repeating myself but…watch that last slot. Farrell, Fraser, and Butler will cruise to nominations here, as should Nighy, whose film is backed by the awards season masters at Sony Pictures Classics. It’s challenging to forecast who joins them when the front-runners, Farrell and Fraser in particular, have so dominated the Best Actor conversation and precursors thus far. He may have missed at the Globes (though, frankly, who gives a shit) but Mescal has otherwise had a fairly healthy run, not winning much of note but often showing up as a critics’ award nominee, including with Critics’ Choice. And A24 is running a robust campaign for him, though they’re doing the same for Pope, who missed at Critics’ Choice but did land at the Globes. My hunch is the slot does ultimately go to one of the A24 gents, though Fiennes or Sandler could sneak in there as a surprise. I don’t see Cruise surfacing here, though an Oscar nom remains in the cards.

Best Female Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin

2. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

3. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once

4. Janelle Monáe, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

5. Carey Mulligan, She Said
   —

6. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once

7. Dolly De Leon, Triangle of Sadness

8. Keke Palmer, Nope

9. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking

10. Hong Chau, The Whale

Watch that fifth slot. And fourth. And third. Actually, just about anything could happen in this race, though Condon should be a safe bet. Bassett and/or Curtis may miss the Oscar cut but they’re true actor’s actors and have surfaced at SAG before (Bassett for Ruby’s Bucket of Blood & Betty and Coretta, Curtis for True Lies). Monáe has scored MVP notices (and a Critics’ Choice bid) for Glass Onion, a film very much in contention for Best Ensemble honors; Mulligan’s earned raves (and a Globe nom) for She Said, a contender that has somewhat dwindled in momentum but hardly disappeared; Hsu has a Critics’ Choice nom and plethora of praise for a picture that only continues to sky-rocket in momentum…there are strong, valid cases to make for all of these contenders and more. My gut says this quintet but it could just as easily be a combo of Condon, Bassett, Hsu, Buckley, and Chau or perhaps a fivesome of Condon, Curtis, Monae, Palmer, and Foy. It’s a category blissfully brimming with suspense. Intriguing, if a tad less unpredictable, is the landscape over in…

Best Male Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

2. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin

3. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans

4. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans

5. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
   —

6. Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse

7. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway

8. Brad Pitt, Babylon

9. Mark Rylance, Bones & All

10. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking

This category is increasingly giving me 1949 Best Supporting Actress vibes. That was a lineup that saw two films (Come to the Stable and Pinky) score noms for a pair of their performers (Celeste Holm & Elsa Lanchester and Ethel Barrymore & Ethel Waters), only for the fifth contender (Mercedes McCambridge in All the King’s Men) to prevail, and perhaps comfortably at that. That said, this quintet is hardly locked in, with only Quan and Gleeson ringing as true shoo-ins. Redmayne, who surfaced at the Globes, could prove a Jared Leto in The Little Things-level contender, and Henry, who’s scored some career-best notices and appearances at critics’ awards, continues to be in the conversation. I can fathom a scenario where Redmayne edges out Keoghan here, only for the latter to still triumph on Oscar noms morning…but I’ll stick with the latter making the cut at both.

2021 SAG Award Winner Predictions

In an already topsy-turvy awards season, this year’s SAG nominations only made the road to Oscar noms morning all the more unsettled.

Beyond The Power of the Dog and West Side Story, both considered shoo-ins for Best Ensemble bids, falling short in contention for the top prize, we also saw the likes of Kristen Stewart (Spencer), Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard) and both Belfast gentlemen (Ciaran Hinds & Jamie Dornan) see their awards season standings deflate. Of course Stewart, Ellis and Hinds ultimately scored Oscar noms - but their SAG snubs have made it exceedingly unlikely they can triumph on the big night.

Will the SAG winners offer more clarity in terms of this season’s Oscar frontrunners? Maybe…or maybe not. Let’s just go ahead and dive into each race here.

Best Motion Picture Ensemble

1. CODA

2. Belfast

3. Don’t Look Up

4. King Richard

5. House of Gucci

While it scored two acting noms here, it is not likely House of Gucci, which landed a mere one Oscar nomination (in Best Makeup and Hairstyling), will take top honors here. Likewise, it’s tough to fathom King Richard taking this when Ellis couldn’t make the cut. This strikes me as a barn burner among the remaining three contenders. Don’t Look Up has the sort of sprawling, starry cast that often takes this category and, among SAG members, it’s probably the most-seen of these nominees. It’s also, however, among the year’s most polarizing contenders and it failed to land a solo acting nomination. Belfast looks to perhaps be The Power of the Dog’s greatest threat for Best Picture honors, with writer/director Kenneth Branagh & Focus Features running the most robust of campaigns. It did, however, only score one acting nomination here, for Caitríona Balfe (who didn’t even make the Oscar cut). If that’s all it could muster, is the enthusiasm that strong among actors? And then there’s CODA, which didn’t see the AMPAS support that the likes of Belfast and King Richard scored, but has nonetheless emerged one of the season’s great crowd-pleasers, with sturdy, if modest, support across the precursors. It’s a tough call but, with Belfast and Don’t Look Up underperforming what I suspected they’d net here, I think the little dark horse might just take it.

Best Female Actor in a Leading Role

1. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos

2. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter

3. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

4. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci

5. Jennifer Hudson, Respect

Hudson, fabulous as she is, won’t be taking this. Actors have triumphed at SAG in spite of Oscar snubs - but it’s extremely rare. So, much as SAG may be keen on House of Gucci, it’s a very uphill climb for Gaga. Chastain cannot be entirely counted out but is there that much passion out there for the performance? (There certainly isn’t for her film itself.) In the end, this strikes me as a barn burner between Kidman and Colman, neither of whom has won an individual SAG prize for film. Had Kidman been the lone nominee for her film here, I’d be inclined to side with Colman, whose film and performance have earned warmer notices. Alas, with co-star Javier Bardem making the cut, I suspect the Being the Ricardos love is just strong enough among members for Kidman to score the edge.

Best Male Actor in a Leading Role

1. Will Smith, King Richard

2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog

3. Andrew Garfield, tick, tick…BOOM!

4. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth

5. Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos

While I suspect Cumberbatch triumphs at BAFTA and has a real shot at the Oscar, Smith, whose film has a Best Ensemble nom (unlike Cumberbatch), should have it made in the shade here. The others won’t come close.

Best Female Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story

2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog

3. Caitríona Balfe, Belfast

4. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley

5. Ruth Negga, Passing

Post-Oscar noms, this is a rather odd lineup to assess. Three of these contenders - Balfe, Blanchett and Negga - missed the Oscar cut. There has been exactly one non-Oscar nominee to take this category at SAG - Emily Blunt (A Quiet Place), who benefitted from eventual Oscar winner Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)’s bizarre snub. It is exceedingly unlikely, barring robust rallying around Belfast, that any of this trio will pull a Blunt. That leaves DeBose and Dunst, both Oscar nominees whose films inexplicably missed in Best Ensemble here. Many pundits will point to issues around screener distribution to SAG members as the reason for West Side Story’s snub - that had 20th Century not strangely stumbled, the film would’ve earned more support. Considering DeBose made the cut, I find that argument a tad shaky…but it’s nonetheless tough to not predict her here, especially given the more surprising Power of the Dog snub. It may be close, especially given the countless number of actors Dunst has worked with, but still, bank on DeBose.

Best Male Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Troy Kotsur, CODA

2. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog

3. Jared Leto, House of Gucci

4. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza

5. Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar

Affleck, whose film landed without a hint of fanfare, can be safely counted out here. Cooper may be increasingly overdue at the Oscars but he hasn’t proven quite as beloved among SAG members, falling short on individual noms for American Hustle and American Sniper. So, it’s tough to fathom him having a prayer without the Oscar nom - and it’s about as difficult to picture Razzie nominee Leto prevailing, even with SAG members eating up Gucci. As may be the case on Oscar night, this looks to be a close call between Smit-McPhee, who’s largely steamrolled the precursors thus far, and Kotsur, who never really took off among the critics’ awards but nonetheless sports the sort of irresistibly heartwarming turn that is so easy to picture as a Best Supporting Actor winner. With CODA making the Best Ensemble cut, I’m inclined to give Kotsur the edge - and if he does take it, he might just go all the way to the Oscar.

Best Motion Picture Stunt Ensemble

1. Dune

2. No Time to Die

3. The Matrix Resurrections

4. Black Widow

5. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings

Dune’s the obvious call, though No Time to Die cannot be entirely counted out. Skyfall did take this category in 2012, albeit against competition not nearly as fierce as Dune - and they didn’t even bother with nominations for Quantum of Solace and Spectre.

2021 SAG Awards Nomination Predictions

Let’s just tell it like it is. The SAG Awards are the best awards.

From the brilliant likes of The Birdcage and Black Panther triumphing for Best Ensemble honors to countless inspired acting nominees, among them amazing curveballs like Michelle Pfeiffer (White Oleander), Hank Azaria (The Birdcage, which they just adored) and Gena Rowlands & Marisa Tomei (Unhook the Stars), SAG has a history of delivering the goods in fun and surprising ways.

Is SAG about to throw its usual wrenches into this awards season? Let’s dive into each category with some predictions.

Best Motion Picture Ensemble

1. Belfast

2. The Power of the Dog

3. West Side Story

4. Don’t Look Up

5. CODA
   —

6. Licorice Pizza

7. The French Dispatch

8. King Richard

9. Mass

10. House of Gucci

Given their formidable awards season performances thus far, it would be truly stunning to see any of Belfast, The Power of the Dog or West Side Story miss here. Beyond that trio, this is a tough one to forecast. Don’t Look Up and The French Dispatch have the sprawling, starry ensembles but the former is proving one of the year’s most polarizing contenders, while the latter hasn’t been an especially robust player at all. CODA and Licorice Pizza seem safer for Best Picture Oscar noms and could have enough support to edge out the splashier casts for the 4th and 5th slots here. Ultimately, I do think timing will help Don’t Look Up, with voters streaming it on Netflix just as ballots are being sent in. Not to be counted out are King Richard and Mass, the latter of which should be a shoo-in here but has the misfortune of a distributor that’s rarely had much luck striking awards season gold.

Best Female Actor in a Leading Role

1. Kristen Stewart, Spencer

2. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter

3. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos

4. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci

5. Jennifer Hudson, Respect
   —

6. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

7. Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza

8. Emilia Jones, CODA

9. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers

10. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story

Stewart’s a sure bet and Colman/Kidman/Gaga strike me as solid too, albeit perhaps on a second tier. That fifth slot, though, is a toughie. Hudson has barely had a presence this awards season but early releases (like Respect) have a tendency to surface at SAG - a pattern that perhaps helps the likes of Chastain and Jones, too. Haim and Zegler could ride their films’ momentum to nominations and Cruz scored a trio of SAG noms to go along with all three career Oscar bids. My gut says Hudson might just be this year’s “what the?” SAG nominee but it’s such a close call.

Best Male Actor in a Leading Role

1. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog

2. Will Smith, King Richard

3. Andrew Garfield, tick, tick…BOOM!

4. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth

5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up
   —

6. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano

7. Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos

8. Nicolas Cage, Pig

9. Joaquin Phoenix, C’mon C’mon

10. Mahershala Ali, Swan Song

Again, I feel most of the suspense here lies in the fifth slot, with Cumberbatch & Smith safe in their spots and Garfield & Washington in reasonably comfortable positions right behind them. Dinklage has surfaced in this category before (for The Station Agent) and I can oddly fathom Bardem making the cut, even if he’s rarely cited as an MVP of Being the Ricardos. But my gut says it’s DiCaprio who ekes it out. He rarely misses at SAG when in awards contention, even making the cut for J. Edgar, and his notices for Don’t Look Up have been generally strong, even from critics of the picture itself.

Best Female Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog

2. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story

3. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard

4. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast

5. Rita Moreno, West Side Story
   —

6. Judi Dench, Belfast

7. Marlee Matlin, CODA

8. Ruth Negga, Passing

9. Ann Dowd, Mass

10. Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up

Dunst, DeBose and Ellis look solid for nominations and odds are Balfe makes it too, even if she hasn’t had the formidable run many expected earlier in the season. Moreno is the quintessential SAG Best Supporting Actress nominee, a legendary veteran along the lines of Gwen Verdon (Marvin’s Room), Cloris Leachman (Spanglish) and Ruby Dee (American Gangster) who’s within striking distance of an Oscar nom but hardly a sure thing. I suspect she makes it but it’s just as easy to fathom Dench or Matlin making the cut if SAG falls especially hard for one of their pictures - and if Mass can somehow score Best Ensemble honors, Dowd may be along for the ride as a solo nominee. In a perfect world, both Negga and Tessa Thompson would be nominees everywhere for Passing but I’m not getting my hopes up.

Best Male Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog

2. Troy Kotsur, CODA

3. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast

4. Jamie Dornan, Belfast

5. J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos
   —

6. Jared Leto, House of Gucci

7. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza

8. Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar

9. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog

10. Jon Bernthal, King Richard

Not to sound like a broken record but…watch that fifth slot lol. Smit-McPhee, Kotsur, Hinds and Dornan should all be in good shape both here and on Oscar noms morning, barring Belfast losing momentum as the season progresses (which is plausible). My sense is Simmons takes the fifth slot, both here and at the Oscars, as a sort of “welcome back!” nod. It could be Leto but if the Globes wouldn’t embrace his divisive House of Gucci turn, I’m a little skeptical SAG and/or AMPAS will bite. Cooper’s been mostly absent from the precursors, The Tender Bar looks poised to arrive without much fanfare and Plemons (who is fantastic) has been completely overshadowed by his co-star. Bet on Simmons but prepare for the possibility of Leto.