2021 SAG Award Winner Predictions

In an already topsy-turvy awards season, this year’s SAG nominations only made the road to Oscar noms morning all the more unsettled.

Beyond The Power of the Dog and West Side Story, both considered shoo-ins for Best Ensemble bids, falling short in contention for the top prize, we also saw the likes of Kristen Stewart (Spencer), Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard) and both Belfast gentlemen (Ciaran Hinds & Jamie Dornan) see their awards season standings deflate. Of course Stewart, Ellis and Hinds ultimately scored Oscar noms - but their SAG snubs have made it exceedingly unlikely they can triumph on the big night.

Will the SAG winners offer more clarity in terms of this season’s Oscar frontrunners? Maybe…or maybe not. Let’s just go ahead and dive into each race here.

Best Motion Picture Ensemble

1. CODA

2. Belfast

3. Don’t Look Up

4. King Richard

5. House of Gucci

While it scored two acting noms here, it is not likely House of Gucci, which landed a mere one Oscar nomination (in Best Makeup and Hairstyling), will take top honors here. Likewise, it’s tough to fathom King Richard taking this when Ellis couldn’t make the cut. This strikes me as a barn burner among the remaining three contenders. Don’t Look Up has the sort of sprawling, starry cast that often takes this category and, among SAG members, it’s probably the most-seen of these nominees. It’s also, however, among the year’s most polarizing contenders and it failed to land a solo acting nomination. Belfast looks to perhaps be The Power of the Dog’s greatest threat for Best Picture honors, with writer/director Kenneth Branagh & Focus Features running the most robust of campaigns. It did, however, only score one acting nomination here, for Caitríona Balfe (who didn’t even make the Oscar cut). If that’s all it could muster, is the enthusiasm that strong among actors? And then there’s CODA, which didn’t see the AMPAS support that the likes of Belfast and King Richard scored, but has nonetheless emerged one of the season’s great crowd-pleasers, with sturdy, if modest, support across the precursors. It’s a tough call but, with Belfast and Don’t Look Up underperforming what I suspected they’d net here, I think the little dark horse might just take it.

Best Female Actor in a Leading Role

1. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos

2. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter

3. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

4. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci

5. Jennifer Hudson, Respect

Hudson, fabulous as she is, won’t be taking this. Actors have triumphed at SAG in spite of Oscar snubs - but it’s extremely rare. So, much as SAG may be keen on House of Gucci, it’s a very uphill climb for Gaga. Chastain cannot be entirely counted out but is there that much passion out there for the performance? (There certainly isn’t for her film itself.) In the end, this strikes me as a barn burner between Kidman and Colman, neither of whom has won an individual SAG prize for film. Had Kidman been the lone nominee for her film here, I’d be inclined to side with Colman, whose film and performance have earned warmer notices. Alas, with co-star Javier Bardem making the cut, I suspect the Being the Ricardos love is just strong enough among members for Kidman to score the edge.

Best Male Actor in a Leading Role

1. Will Smith, King Richard

2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog

3. Andrew Garfield, tick, tick…BOOM!

4. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth

5. Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos

While I suspect Cumberbatch triumphs at BAFTA and has a real shot at the Oscar, Smith, whose film has a Best Ensemble nom (unlike Cumberbatch), should have it made in the shade here. The others won’t come close.

Best Female Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story

2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog

3. Caitríona Balfe, Belfast

4. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley

5. Ruth Negga, Passing

Post-Oscar noms, this is a rather odd lineup to assess. Three of these contenders - Balfe, Blanchett and Negga - missed the Oscar cut. There has been exactly one non-Oscar nominee to take this category at SAG - Emily Blunt (A Quiet Place), who benefitted from eventual Oscar winner Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)’s bizarre snub. It is exceedingly unlikely, barring robust rallying around Belfast, that any of this trio will pull a Blunt. That leaves DeBose and Dunst, both Oscar nominees whose films inexplicably missed in Best Ensemble here. Many pundits will point to issues around screener distribution to SAG members as the reason for West Side Story’s snub - that had 20th Century not strangely stumbled, the film would’ve earned more support. Considering DeBose made the cut, I find that argument a tad shaky…but it’s nonetheless tough to not predict her here, especially given the more surprising Power of the Dog snub. It may be close, especially given the countless number of actors Dunst has worked with, but still, bank on DeBose.

Best Male Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Troy Kotsur, CODA

2. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog

3. Jared Leto, House of Gucci

4. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza

5. Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar

Affleck, whose film landed without a hint of fanfare, can be safely counted out here. Cooper may be increasingly overdue at the Oscars but he hasn’t proven quite as beloved among SAG members, falling short on individual noms for American Hustle and American Sniper. So, it’s tough to fathom him having a prayer without the Oscar nom - and it’s about as difficult to picture Razzie nominee Leto prevailing, even with SAG members eating up Gucci. As may be the case on Oscar night, this looks to be a close call between Smit-McPhee, who’s largely steamrolled the precursors thus far, and Kotsur, who never really took off among the critics’ awards but nonetheless sports the sort of irresistibly heartwarming turn that is so easy to picture as a Best Supporting Actor winner. With CODA making the Best Ensemble cut, I’m inclined to give Kotsur the edge - and if he does take it, he might just go all the way to the Oscar.

Best Motion Picture Stunt Ensemble

1. Dune

2. No Time to Die

3. The Matrix Resurrections

4. Black Widow

5. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings

Dune’s the obvious call, though No Time to Die cannot be entirely counted out. Skyfall did take this category in 2012, albeit against competition not nearly as fierce as Dune - and they didn’t even bother with nominations for Quantum of Solace and Spectre.