FINAL 2021 Oscar Winner Predictions

We are so close!

Come Sunday, this awards season, a largely exasperating endeavor that has sported some marvelous movies but not always brought out the best in film fans, will come to a close.

As we reach a conclusion, many categories appear all but completely sewn up, including a trio of acting awards, handful of technical prizes and honors for directing, where no one has surfaced to pose a real threat to Jane Campion.

There does, however, remain a fair share of suspense, including in the top category, where SAG, PGA and WGA victories have catapulted CODA (for the record, my favorite film of the year) from underdog to potential winner. Without a doubt, it has surged at precisely the right time, sporting momentum just as voters are taking to their ballots. The question remains, however - can CODA, with its mere trio of nominations, really take down 12-time nominee The Power of the Dog?

It’s a plenty plausible outcome, especially with the curveball of a preferential ballot. But it remains unclear whether voters in the craft categories, who are clearly fond of The Power of the Dog, are all that taken with CODA. (Pre-PGA, I suspected Belfast, which did muster a healthy spread of Oscar noms, would prove the greatest threat.) They may be - and it’s not as if films devoid of technical nominations are instantly doomed in Best Picture.

But much as I’d love to predict CODA, I cannot get past The Power of the Dog’s haul on nominations morning. If it may not rack up much in the way of wins, we have unimpeachable evidence, through these noms, that broad support exists for the Campion picture.

Then there’s the Best Actress situation, where Jessica Chastain, with SAG and Critics’ Choice wins, now looks like the one to beat. No doubt, she is very well-positioned, especially as the category’s lone nominee without an Oscar win.

Chastain is not, however, a shoo-in on the level of Will Smith, Ariana DeBose and Troy Kotsur. Her film was neither a critical nor commercial hit and her competition, with the possible exception of Nicole Kidman, has fiercely passionate supporters. It’s just not terribly clear who the alternative to Chastain would be. It may just be Olivia Colman, who has scored a Best Actress upset before and whose film has a tad more AMPAS support than Chastain’s. Had The Lost Daughter made it into Best Picture, I’d likely be predicting her here.

Both screenwriting categories remain unsettled, made all the more chaotic by WGA inexplicably going for Don’t Look Up. At this point, Belfast’s one remaining hope likely lies in that category, Best Original Screenplay. If CODA scores Best Adapted Screenplay, expect it to go all the way in Best Picture. I suppose it could still take top honors without it…but not terribly likely.

Down the ballot, keep an eye on Flee in its trio of categories, all of which it’s tragically poised to finish 2nd or 3rd in. The shorts seem to have modest front-runners this year but are always ripe for upsets.

In the craft categories, suspense remains in several fields, including Best Cinematography, Best Film Editing, Best Original Score, Best Original Song and Best Production Design. If The Power of the Dog can muster anything in the technical races, take that as an exceedingly strong sign that it’s prevailing in Picture. It’s also down the ballot where surprise Best Picture nominee Nightmare Alley may have a prayer to score a trophy or two.

So, that’s that. Let’s get to it - below are my final Oscar winner predictions, ranked from most to least likely to win. Fingers crossed we’re in for a ceremony that isn’t an awe-inspiring trainwreck - and that discourse among film fans post-ceremony is a little more civil than it’s all too proven pre-Oscars.

Good luck! :)

Best Picture

1. The Power of the Dog

2. CODA

3. Belfast

4. King Richard

5. West Side Story

6. Dune

7. Licorice Pizza

8. Don’t Look Up

9. Drive My Car

10. Nightmare Alley

Best Director

1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

2. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story

3. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast

4. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car

5. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza

Best Actress

1. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

2. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter

3. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers

4. Kristen Stewart, Spencer

5. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos

Best Actor

1. Will Smith, King Richard

2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog

3. Andrew Garfield, tick, tick... BOOM!

4. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth

5. Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos

Best Supporting Actress

1. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story

2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog

3. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard

4. Judi Dench, Belfast

5. Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter

Best Supporting Actor

1. Troy Kotsur, CODA

2. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog

3. Ciarán Hinds, Belfast

4. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog

5. J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos

Best Original Screenplay

1. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast

2. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza

3. Adam McKay and David Sirota, Don’t Look Up

4. Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier, The Worst Person in the World

5. Zach Baylin, King Richard

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

2. Sian Heder, CODA

3. Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter

4. Ryusuke Hamaguchi and Takamasa Oe, Drive My Car

5. Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve and Eric Roth, Dune

Best Animated Feature

1. Encanto

2. The Mitchells vs. The Machines

3. Flee

4. Luca

5. Raya and the Last Dragon

Best Animated Short Film

1. Robin Robin

2. Affairs of the Art

3. The Windshield Wiper

4. Bestia

5. BoxBallet

Best Documentary Feature

1. Summer of Soul (...Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)

2. Flee

3. Writing with Fire

4. Attica

5. Ascension

Best Documentary Short Subject

1. The Queen of Basketball

2. Audible

3. Lead Me Home

4. Three Songs for Benazir

5. When We Were Bullies

Best International Feature

1. Drive My Car (Japan)

2. The Worst Person in the World (Norway)

3. Flee (Denmark)

4. The Hand of God (Italy)

5. Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan)

Best Live Action Short Film

1. The Long Goodbye

2. Ala Kachuu - Take and Run

3. On My Mind

4. The Dress

5. Please Hold

Best Cinematography

1. Greig Fraser, Dune

2. Ari Wegner, The Power of the Dog

3. Dan Laustsen, Nightmare Alley

4. Janusz Kamiński, West Side Story

5. Bruno Delbonnel, The Tragedy of Macbeth

Best Costume Design

1. Jenny Beavan, Cruella

2. Jacqueline West and Robert Morgan, Dune

3. Paul Tazewell, West Side Story

4. Luis Sequeira, Nightmare Alley

5. Massimo Cantini Parrini and Jacqueline Durran, Cyrano

Best Film Editing

1. Joe Walker, Dune

2. Pamela Martin, King Richard

3. Peter Sciberras, The Power of the Dog

4. Myron Kerstein and Andrew Weisblum, tick, tick... BOOM!

5. Hank Corwin, Don’t Look Up

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

1. Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram and Justin Raleigh, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

2. Nadia Stacey, Naomi Donne and Julia Vernon, Cruella

3. Mike Marino, Stacey Morris and Carla Farmer, Coming 2 America

4. Göran Lundström, Anna Carin Lock and Frederic Aspiras, House of Gucci

5. Donald Mowat, Love Larson and Eva von Bahr, Dune

Best Original Score

1. Hans Zimmer, Dune

2. Jonny Greenwood, The Power of the Dog

3. Germaine Franco, Encanto

4. Nicholas Britell, Don’t Look Up

5. Alberto Iglesias, Parallel Mothers

Best Original Song

1. “No Time to Die,” No Time to Die

2. "Dos Oruguitas,” Encanto

3. “Be Alive,” King Richard

4. “Down to Joy,” Belfast

5. “Somehow You Do,” Four Good Days

Best Production Design

1. Tamara Deverell and Shane Vieau, Nightmare Alley

2. Patrice Vermette and Zsuzsanna Sipos, Dune

3. Stefan Dechant and Nancy Haigh, The Tragedy of Macbeth

4. Adam Stockhausen and: Rena DeAngelo, West Side Story

5. Grant Major and Amber Richards, The Power of the Dog

Best Sound

1. Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Theo Green, Doug Hemphill and Ron Bartlett, Dune

2. Simon Hayes, Oliver Tarney, James Harrison, Paul Massey and Mark Taylor, No Time to Die

3. Tod A. Maitland, Gary Rydstrom, Brian Chumney, Andy Nelson and Shawn Murphy, West Side Story

4. Richard Flynn, Robert Mackenzie and Tara Webb, The Power of the Dog

5. Denise Yarde, Simon Chase, James Mather and Niv Adiri, Belfast

Best Visual Effects

1. Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor and Gerd Nefzer, Dune

2. Kelly Port, Chris Waegner, Scott Edelstein and Dan Sudick, Spider-Man: No Way Home

3. Charlie Noble, Joel Green, Jonathan Fawkner and Chris Corbould, No Time to Die

4. Swen Gillberg, Bryan Grill, Nikos Kalaitzidis and Dan Sudick, Free Guy

5. Christopher Townsend, Joe Farrell, Sean Noel Walker and Dan Oliver, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings