FINAL 2021 Oscar Winner Predictions

We are so close!

Come Sunday, this awards season, a largely exasperating endeavor that has sported some marvelous movies but not always brought out the best in film fans, will come to a close.

As we reach a conclusion, many categories appear all but completely sewn up, including a trio of acting awards, handful of technical prizes and honors for directing, where no one has surfaced to pose a real threat to Jane Campion.

There does, however, remain a fair share of suspense, including in the top category, where SAG, PGA and WGA victories have catapulted CODA (for the record, my favorite film of the year) from underdog to potential winner. Without a doubt, it has surged at precisely the right time, sporting momentum just as voters are taking to their ballots. The question remains, however - can CODA, with its mere trio of nominations, really take down 12-time nominee The Power of the Dog?

It’s a plenty plausible outcome, especially with the curveball of a preferential ballot. But it remains unclear whether voters in the craft categories, who are clearly fond of The Power of the Dog, are all that taken with CODA. (Pre-PGA, I suspected Belfast, which did muster a healthy spread of Oscar noms, would prove the greatest threat.) They may be - and it’s not as if films devoid of technical nominations are instantly doomed in Best Picture.

But much as I’d love to predict CODA, I cannot get past The Power of the Dog’s haul on nominations morning. If it may not rack up much in the way of wins, we have unimpeachable evidence, through these noms, that broad support exists for the Campion picture.

Then there’s the Best Actress situation, where Jessica Chastain, with SAG and Critics’ Choice wins, now looks like the one to beat. No doubt, she is very well-positioned, especially as the category’s lone nominee without an Oscar win.

Chastain is not, however, a shoo-in on the level of Will Smith, Ariana DeBose and Troy Kotsur. Her film was neither a critical nor commercial hit and her competition, with the possible exception of Nicole Kidman, has fiercely passionate supporters. It’s just not terribly clear who the alternative to Chastain would be. It may just be Olivia Colman, who has scored a Best Actress upset before and whose film has a tad more AMPAS support than Chastain’s. Had The Lost Daughter made it into Best Picture, I’d likely be predicting her here.

Both screenwriting categories remain unsettled, made all the more chaotic by WGA inexplicably going for Don’t Look Up. At this point, Belfast’s one remaining hope likely lies in that category, Best Original Screenplay. If CODA scores Best Adapted Screenplay, expect it to go all the way in Best Picture. I suppose it could still take top honors without it…but not terribly likely.

Down the ballot, keep an eye on Flee in its trio of categories, all of which it’s tragically poised to finish 2nd or 3rd in. The shorts seem to have modest front-runners this year but are always ripe for upsets.

In the craft categories, suspense remains in several fields, including Best Cinematography, Best Film Editing, Best Original Score, Best Original Song and Best Production Design. If The Power of the Dog can muster anything in the technical races, take that as an exceedingly strong sign that it’s prevailing in Picture. It’s also down the ballot where surprise Best Picture nominee Nightmare Alley may have a prayer to score a trophy or two.

So, that’s that. Let’s get to it - below are my final Oscar winner predictions, ranked from most to least likely to win. Fingers crossed we’re in for a ceremony that isn’t an awe-inspiring trainwreck - and that discourse among film fans post-ceremony is a little more civil than it’s all too proven pre-Oscars.

Good luck! :)

Best Picture

1. The Power of the Dog

2. CODA

3. Belfast

4. King Richard

5. West Side Story

6. Dune

7. Licorice Pizza

8. Don’t Look Up

9. Drive My Car

10. Nightmare Alley

Best Director

1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

2. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story

3. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast

4. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car

5. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza

Best Actress

1. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

2. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter

3. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers

4. Kristen Stewart, Spencer

5. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos

Best Actor

1. Will Smith, King Richard

2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog

3. Andrew Garfield, tick, tick... BOOM!

4. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth

5. Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos

Best Supporting Actress

1. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story

2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog

3. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard

4. Judi Dench, Belfast

5. Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter

Best Supporting Actor

1. Troy Kotsur, CODA

2. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog

3. Ciarán Hinds, Belfast

4. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog

5. J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos

Best Original Screenplay

1. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast

2. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza

3. Adam McKay and David Sirota, Don’t Look Up

4. Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier, The Worst Person in the World

5. Zach Baylin, King Richard

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

2. Sian Heder, CODA

3. Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter

4. Ryusuke Hamaguchi and Takamasa Oe, Drive My Car

5. Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve and Eric Roth, Dune

Best Animated Feature

1. Encanto

2. The Mitchells vs. The Machines

3. Flee

4. Luca

5. Raya and the Last Dragon

Best Animated Short Film

1. Robin Robin

2. Affairs of the Art

3. The Windshield Wiper

4. Bestia

5. BoxBallet

Best Documentary Feature

1. Summer of Soul (...Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)

2. Flee

3. Writing with Fire

4. Attica

5. Ascension

Best Documentary Short Subject

1. The Queen of Basketball

2. Audible

3. Lead Me Home

4. Three Songs for Benazir

5. When We Were Bullies

Best International Feature

1. Drive My Car (Japan)

2. The Worst Person in the World (Norway)

3. Flee (Denmark)

4. The Hand of God (Italy)

5. Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan)

Best Live Action Short Film

1. The Long Goodbye

2. Ala Kachuu - Take and Run

3. On My Mind

4. The Dress

5. Please Hold

Best Cinematography

1. Greig Fraser, Dune

2. Ari Wegner, The Power of the Dog

3. Dan Laustsen, Nightmare Alley

4. Janusz Kamiński, West Side Story

5. Bruno Delbonnel, The Tragedy of Macbeth

Best Costume Design

1. Jenny Beavan, Cruella

2. Jacqueline West and Robert Morgan, Dune

3. Paul Tazewell, West Side Story

4. Luis Sequeira, Nightmare Alley

5. Massimo Cantini Parrini and Jacqueline Durran, Cyrano

Best Film Editing

1. Joe Walker, Dune

2. Pamela Martin, King Richard

3. Peter Sciberras, The Power of the Dog

4. Myron Kerstein and Andrew Weisblum, tick, tick... BOOM!

5. Hank Corwin, Don’t Look Up

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

1. Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram and Justin Raleigh, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

2. Nadia Stacey, Naomi Donne and Julia Vernon, Cruella

3. Mike Marino, Stacey Morris and Carla Farmer, Coming 2 America

4. Göran Lundström, Anna Carin Lock and Frederic Aspiras, House of Gucci

5. Donald Mowat, Love Larson and Eva von Bahr, Dune

Best Original Score

1. Hans Zimmer, Dune

2. Jonny Greenwood, The Power of the Dog

3. Germaine Franco, Encanto

4. Nicholas Britell, Don’t Look Up

5. Alberto Iglesias, Parallel Mothers

Best Original Song

1. “No Time to Die,” No Time to Die

2. "Dos Oruguitas,” Encanto

3. “Be Alive,” King Richard

4. “Down to Joy,” Belfast

5. “Somehow You Do,” Four Good Days

Best Production Design

1. Tamara Deverell and Shane Vieau, Nightmare Alley

2. Patrice Vermette and Zsuzsanna Sipos, Dune

3. Stefan Dechant and Nancy Haigh, The Tragedy of Macbeth

4. Adam Stockhausen and: Rena DeAngelo, West Side Story

5. Grant Major and Amber Richards, The Power of the Dog

Best Sound

1. Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Theo Green, Doug Hemphill and Ron Bartlett, Dune

2. Simon Hayes, Oliver Tarney, James Harrison, Paul Massey and Mark Taylor, No Time to Die

3. Tod A. Maitland, Gary Rydstrom, Brian Chumney, Andy Nelson and Shawn Murphy, West Side Story

4. Richard Flynn, Robert Mackenzie and Tara Webb, The Power of the Dog

5. Denise Yarde, Simon Chase, James Mather and Niv Adiri, Belfast

Best Visual Effects

1. Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor and Gerd Nefzer, Dune

2. Kelly Port, Chris Waegner, Scott Edelstein and Dan Sudick, Spider-Man: No Way Home

3. Charlie Noble, Joel Green, Jonathan Fawkner and Chris Corbould, No Time to Die

4. Swen Gillberg, Bryan Grill, Nikos Kalaitzidis and Dan Sudick, Free Guy

5. Christopher Townsend, Joe Farrell, Sean Noel Walker and Dan Oliver, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings

FINAL 2021 Oscar Nomination Predictions

We’re so close.

It’s been the oddest of awards seasons, as we venture into Oscar nominations morning without the usual pomp and circumstance from the Golden Globes (held but not televised) and Critics’ Choice Awards (delayed and will later be televised). While the critics’ awards, guild awards and BAFTA have given us a fair idea of what to likely expect from AMPAS, it nonetheless feels like this awards season never had a proper kickoff. With Tuesday’s announcement, this will change.

A healthy sense of suspense remains ahead of the nominations. We know, of course, that the likes of Belfast, Dune, The Power of the Dog and West Side Story are poised for strong showings…but just how robust will their hauls prove? And are the likes of Kenneth Branagh and Steven Spielberg really shoo-ins in Best Director or could more surprises be on the horizon there than anticipated?

Contenders like CODA, King Richard and Licorice Pizza all seem destined for at least modest batches of nominations, while the likes of Being the Ricardos, House of Gucci, tick, tick…BOOM! and The Tragedy of Macbeth could finish strong or just as easily underwhelm. And you can’t count out a film like No Time to Die, which doesn’t ring of traditional Oscar fare but has seen an exceedingly healthy awards season run in the technical fields.

The acting categories remain awfully unsettled, with Lead Actor perhaps the most set in stone and sporting just one competitive slot. Despite some BAFTA battiness, Lady Gaga, Nicole Kidman and Olivia Colman seem reasonably safe over in Lead Actress, as does Jessica Chastain, albeit to a little lesser extent. That final slot feels like a jump ball among half a dozen (or more!) contenders.

The Supporting fields are tougher to forecast, with really just two contenders in each - Ariana DeBose & Caitriona Balfe and Kodi Smit-McPhee & Troy Kotsur - looking safe. BAFTA and SAG snubs have cast mild doubt on Kirsten Dunst and Aunjanue Ellis, though odds are both make the cut. And while I remain anxious that Passing may be in for a shutout on nominations morning, it’s tough to argue Ruth Negga, who’s had a nice precursors run, isn’t poised for a slot. There are, however, several strong contenders right on her heels.

Over in Supporting Actor, Jared Leto and Bradley Cooper have high name rec and grace films destined for recognition across a variety of categories, while the likes of Mike Faist and/or Jesse Plemons could sneak in if AMPAS goes especially gaga for one of their films. The Belfast buzz doesn’t seem potent enough for double nominations in either category.

Down in the technical fields, expect lots of Dune, West Side Story and, as earlier mentioned, No Time to Die, which could rack up half a dozen or more nominations when all is said and done.

All that said, let’s just dive right into it - final Oscar nom predictions of the season, from most to least likely to earn a nomination. In countless cases, a contender has moved up or down from my last forecast - or bolted from its category entirely.

Enjoy! :)

Best Picture

1. The Power of the Dog (-)

2. Dune (+3)

3. Licorice Pizza (+1)

4. Belfast (-1)

5. West Side Story (-3)

6. Don’t Look Up (+3)

7. CODA (-1)

8. King Richard (-1)

9. Drive My Car (+6)

10. House of Gucci (NEW)
    —

11. tick, tick…BOOM! (-3)

12. Being the Ricardos (+1)

13. The Tragedy of Macbeth (-3)

14. The Lost Daughter (-3)

15. No Time to Die (NEW)

DROPPED
Nightmare Alley (-4)
Spider-Man: No Way Home (-2)

Best Director

1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (-)

2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (+1)

3. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (+1)

4. Ryûsuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car (+1)

5. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (-3)
   —

6. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (-)

7. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up (+2)

8. Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter (-)

9. Siân Heder, CODA (-3)

10. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (-)

Best Actress

1. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (+2)

2. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (+2)

3. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (-1)

4. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (+3)

5. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (-)
   —

6. Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza (-)

7. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (+3)

8. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (-7)

9. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (-1)

10. Emilia Jones, CODA (-1)

Best Actor

1. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (-)

2. Will Smith, King Richard (-)

3. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (-)

4. Andrew Garfield, tick, tick…BOOM! (-)

5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (+1)
   —

6. Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos (NEW)

7. Mahershala Ali, Swan Song (NEW)

8. Nicolas Cage, Pig (-1)

9. Joaquin Phoenix, C’mon C’mon (-3)

10. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (-)

DROPPED
Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey (-3)
Cooper Hoffman, Licorice Pizza (-2)

Best Supporting Actress

1. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (+1)

2. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (+2)

3. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (-2)

4. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (-1)

5. Ruth Negga, Passing (+2)
   —

6. Ann Dowd, Mass (+3)

7. Rita Moreno, West Side Story (-1)

8. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley (NEW)

9. Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter (NEW)

10. Marlee Matlin, CODA (-2)

DROPPED
Judi Dench, Belfast (-6)
Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up (-4)

Best Supporting Actor

1. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (-)

2. Troy Kotsur, CODA (-)

3. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast (-)

4. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (+2)

5. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (+2)
   —

6. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog (+4)

7. J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos (-2)

8. Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar (+1)

9. Mike Faist, West Side Story (-1)

10. Jamie Dornan, Belfast (-6)

Best Original Screenplay

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (-)

2. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (-)

3. Adam McKay and David Sirota, Don’t Look Up (-)

4. Aaron Sorkin, Being the Ricardos (+4)

5. Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola, Hugo Guinness and Jason Schwartzman, The French Dispatch (-)
   —

6. Zach Baylin, King Richard (-2)

7. Pedro Almodovar, Parallel Mothers (+2)

8. Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier, The Worst Person in the World (NEW)

9. Asghar Farhadi, A Hero (-2)

10. Mike Mills, C’mon C’mon (-4)

DROPPED
Paolo Sorrentino, The Hand of God (-1)

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (-)

2. Tony Kushner, West Side Story (-)

3. Sian Heder, CODA (-)

4. Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter (-)

5. Ryusuke Hamaguchi and Takamasa Oe, Drive My Car (-)
   —

6. Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve and Eric Roth, Dune (+3)

7. Steven Levenson, tick, tick... BOOM! (-)

8. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (-2)

9. Guillermo del Toro and Kim Morgan, Nightmare Alley (+1)

10. Rebecca Hall, Passing (-2)

Best Animated Feature

1. Encanto (-)

2. Luca (+1)

3. Raya and the Last Dragon (+1)

4. The Mitchells vs. the Machines (+4)

5. Flee (-3)
   —

6. Belle (-1)

7. Sing 2 (+2)

8. The Summit of the Gods (-1)

9. Ron’s Gone Wrong (+1)

10. Vivo (-4)

Best Animated Short Film

1. Us Again (+7)

2. Robin Robin (+7)

3. Affairs of the Art (-2)

4. Step into the River (-)

5. Bestia (-3)
   —

6. Mum Is Pouring Rain (-3)

7. Namoo (-1)

8. The Windshield Wiper (-1)

9. Souvenir Souvenir (+1)

10. The Musician (-5)

Best Documentary Feature

1. Flee (-)

2. The Rescue (+1)

3. The First Wave (+1)

4. Procession (+4)

5. Billie Eilish: The World’s a Little Blurry (+4)
   —

6. Summer Of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised) (-4)

7. The Velvet Underground (NEW)

8. Attica (+2)

9. Simple as Water (-2)

10. Julia (NEW)

DROPPED
Faya Dayi (-6)
Writing with Fire (-5)

Best Documentary Short Subject

1. The Queen of Basketball (+8)

2. Audible (NEW)

3. Terror Contagion (NEW)

4. Sophie & the Baron (+1)

5. Águilas (-4)
   —

6. Three Songs for Benazir (-4)

7. A Broken House (-4)

8. Lead Me Home (-2)

9. Day of Rage (-2)

10. Camp Confidential: America’s Secret Nazis (-2)

DROPPED
Lynching Postcards: “Token of a Great Day” (-7)
The Facility (-1)

Best International Feature

1. Drive My Car (Japan) (-)

2. Flee (Denmark) (-)

3. The Worst Person in the World (Norway) (+2)

4. A Hero (Iran) (-1)

5. The Hand of God (Italy) (-1)
   —

6. Compartment No. 6 (Finland) (-)

7. Prayers for the Stolen (Mexico) (+2)

8. Playground (Belgium) (+2)

9. I’m Your Man (Germany) (-2)

10. Hive (Kosovo) (NEW)

DROPPED
Lamb (Iceland) (-3)

Best Live Action Short Film

1. Under the Heavens (+9)

2. Les Grandes Claques (-)

3. When the Sun Sets (NEW)

4. The Long Goodbye (+2)

5. Censor of Dreams (+2)
   —

6. The Criminals (-5)

7. Frimas (-4)

8. Stenofonen (-4)

9. You’re Dead Hélène (-4)

10. The Dress (-2)

DROPPED
Distances (-2)

Best Cinematography

1. Greig Fraser, Dune (-)

2. Ari Wegner, The Power of the Dog (-)

3. Bruno Delbonnel, The Tragedy of Macbeth (+2)

4. Haris Zambarloukos, Belfast (-)

5. Dan Laustsen, Nightmare Alley (+1)
   —

6. Janusz Kaminski, West Side Story (-3)

7. Paul Thomas Anderson and Michael Bauman, Licorice Pizza (-)

8. Linus Sandgren, No Time to Die (NEW)

9. Claire Mithon, Spencer (-1)

10. Robert Yeoman, The French Dispatch (-1)

DROPPED
Eduard Grau, Passing (-1)

Best Costume Design

1. Jenny Beavan, Cruella (+1)

2. Luis Sequeira, Nightmare Alley (+1)

3. Janty Yates, House of Gucci (+1)

4. Paul Tazewell, West Side Story (-1)

5. Jacqueline West, Dune (+1)
   —

6. Massimo Cantini Parrini, Cyrano (+2)

7. Milena Canonero, The French Dispatch (-)

8. Jacqueline Durran, Spencer (-5)

9. Suttirat Anne Larlarb, No Time to Die (NEW)

10. Kirsty Cameron, The Power of the Dog (-)

DROPPED
Susan Lyall, Being the Ricardos (-2)

Best Film Editing

1. Joe Walker, Dune (-)

2. Peter Sciberras, The Power of the Dog (-)

3. Andy Jurgensen, Licorice Pizza (+1)

4. Tom Cross and Elliot Graham, No Time to Die (+2)

5. Sarah Broshar and Michael Kahn, West Side Story (-2)
   —

6. Úna Ní Dhonghaíle, Belfast (-1)

7. Pamela Martin, King Richard (-)

8. Hank Corwin, Don’t Look Up (-)

9. Myron Kerstein and Andrew Weisblum, tick, tick... BOOM! (-)

10. Alan Baumgarten, Being the Ricardos (NEW)

DROPPED
Geraud Brisson, CODA (-1)

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

1. Jana Carboni, Giuliano Mariano and Göran Lundström, House of Gucci (-)

2. Nadia Stacey and Carolyn Cousins, Cruella (+3)

3. Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram and Justin Raleigh, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (-)

4. Heba Thorisdottir and Janine Thompson, The Suicide Squad (+2)

5. Vera Steimberg, Merc Arceneaux, Stacey Morris and Carla Farmer, Coming 2 America (+2)
   —

6. Donald Mowat, Love Larson and Eva von Bahr, Dune (-2)

7. Cliona Furey and Jo-Ann MacNeil, Nightmare Alley (-5)

8. Sian Miller and Alessandro Bertolazzi, Cyrano (+1)

9. Judy Chin and Kay Georgiou, West Side Story (-1)

10. Daniel Phillips, No Time to Die (-)

Best Original Score

1. Hans Zimmer, Dune (+1)

2. Jonny Greenwood, The Power of the Dog (-1)

3. Alexandre Desplat, The French Dispatch (+1)

4. Nicholas Britell, Don’t Look Up (+5)

5. Carter Burwell, The Tragedy of Macbeth (+1)
   —

6. Germaine Franco, Encanto (-1)

7. Hans Zimmer, No Time to Die (NEW)

8. Alberto Iglesias, Parallel Mothers (-1)

9. Daniel Pemberton, Being the Ricardos (-1)

10. Jonny Greenwood, Spencer (-7)

DROPPED
Kris Bowers, King Richard (-1)

Best Original Song

1. “No Time to Die,” No Time to Die (-)

2. “Dos Oruguitas,” Encanto (-)

3. “Down to Joy,” Belfast (-)

4. “Here I Am (Singing My Way Home),” Respect (+1)

5. “Beyond the Shore,” CODA (+1)
   —

6. “Be Alive,” King Richard (-2)

7. “Somehow You Do,” Four Good Days (+1)

8. “Just Look Up,” Don’t Look Up (+1)

9. “So May We Start,” Annette (-2)

10. “Your Song Saved My Life,” Sing 2 (NEW)

DROPPED
“Right Where I Belong,” Brian Wilson: Long Promised Road (-1)

Best Production Design

1. Tamara Deverell and Shane Vieau, Nightmare Alley (+2)

2. Patrice Vermette, Richard Roberts and Zsuzsanna Sipos, Dune (-1)

3. Adam Stockhausen and Rena DeAngelo, West Side Story (-1)

4. Adam Stockhausen and Rena DeAngelo, The French Dispatch (+1)

5. Stefan Dechant and Nancy Haigh, The Tragedy of Macbeth (+3)
   —

6. Grant Major and Amber Richards, The Power of the Dog (-2)

7. Arthur Max and Letizia Santucci, House of Gucci (-1)

8. Mark Tildesley and Veronique Melery, No Time to Die (NEW)

9. Florencia Martin and Ryan Watson, Licorice Pizza (NEW)

10. Jon Hutman and Ellen Brill, Being the Ricardos (-1)

DROPPED
Guy Hendrix-Dyas and Yesim Zolan, Spencer (-4)
Jim Clay and Claire Nia Richards, Belfast (-1)

Best Sound

1. Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Theo Green, Doug Hemphill and Ron Bartlett, Dune (-)

2. Gary Rydstrom, Brian Chumney, Andy Nelson, Tod Maitland and Shawn Murphy, West Side Story (-)

3. Simon Hayes, Oliver Tarney and Paul Massey, No Time to Die (+2)

4. Willie Burton, Kevin O’Connell, Tony Lambert, Steven Ticknor and Vanessa Lapato, Spider-Man: No Way Home (-)

5. Ethan Van Der Ryn, Erik Aadahl, Michael Barosky and Brandon Proctor, A Quiet Place Part II (+3)
   —

6. Paul Hsu and Todd A. Maitland, tick, tick...BOOM! (-)

7. Robert Mackenzie, Richard Flynn, Leah Katz, Tara Webb and Dave Whitehead, The Power of the Dog (-4)

8. Julian Slater, Dan Morgan, Colin Nicolson, Tim Cavagin, Last Night in Soho (+2)

9. Barry O’Sullivan, Dana A. Davis, Stephanie Flack, Matthias Lempert and Lars Ginzel, The Matrix Resurrections (-)

10. Simon Chase, James Mather, Denise Yarde and Niv Adris, Belfast (-3)

Best Visual Effects

1. Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor and Gerd Nefzer, Dune (-)

2. Kelly Port, Chris Waegner, Scott Edelstein and Dan Sudick, Spider-Man: No Way Home (-)

3. Charlie Noble and Chris Corbould, No Time to Die (+3)

4. Dan Glass, Huw J Evans, Tom Debenham and J.D. Schwalm, The Matrix Resurrections (-1)

5. Christopher Townsend, Joe Farrell, Sean Walker, Dan Oliver, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (-1)
   —

6. Stephane Ceretti, Daniele Bigi, Matt Aitken and Neil Corbould, Eternals (+1)

7. Swen Gillberg, Bryan Grill, Nikos Kalaitzidis and Dan Sudick, Free Guy (-2)

8. John Desjardin, Bryan Hirota, Kevin Smith and Mike Meinardus, Godzilla vs. Kong (-)

9. Alessandro Ongaro, Sheena Duggal, Aharon Bourland and Pier Lefebvre, Ghostbusters: Afterlife (-)

10. Geoffrey Baumann, Dave Hodgins, Craig Hammack and Paul Corbould, Black Widow (-)

2021 Oscar Nomination Predictions (January)

Oh hi. :)

It was an eventful December in the awards season as an onslaught of critics’ groups, among them the Critics Choice Awards, announced their rosters of honorees. The Power of the Dog most made a killing among these precursors, but it was a robust month too for the likes of Drive My Car and Licorice Pizza, plus acting contenders like Ariana DeBose (West Side Story) and Kristen Stewart (Spencer).

Ultimately, however, did these awards provide heaps of clarity as to who is favored to take home Oscars? Not so much.

While The Power of the Dog may indeed have racked up a plethora of wins among the critics’ groups, it remains to be seen whether this slow burn will continue its momentum into the new year, as guild awards have their say. No doubt, it will rack up a healthy stack of nominations over the coming month and once the Oscars announce in February. It’s entirely plausible, however, that other contenders, the likes of Belfast, Licorice Pizza and West Side Story - perhaps even a dark horse like CODA, too (I’m looking at you, SAG) - make a comparable or greater connection in terms of wins. (That said, Jane Campion sure does look formidable in Best Director.)

The acting categories are tougher than ever to figure out.

Stewart continues to look like the Best Actress favorite, albeit a soft one at that. What’s helping her is the lack of a clear alternative. Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos) looked like that formidable opponent until reviews for her film proved more lukewarm than expected. Instead, it may be Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter) who most puts up a fight, especially if her film can land in Best Picture, which seems a more plausible feat than Spencer making the cut.

Speaking of soft front-runners, it’s arguable at this point whether Will Smith (King Richard) is really a favorite at all in Best Actor. With Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog) faring exceedingly well among the critics’ prizes, this race for now feels like a barn burner between these two contenders.

Over in the Supporting fields, DeBose is looking awfully strong for Best Supporting Actress honors, though Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog), Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard) and Catriona Balfe (Belfast) are not to be counted out, especially if AMPAS goes gaga for one of their films.

Best Supporting Actor has seen Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog) clean up the bulk of critics’ prizes but I hesitate to label his exceedingly understated turn as a heavy favorite. If AMPAS falls head over heels for CODA, it’s easy to fathom Troy Kotsur emerging triumphant. Likewise, if they adore Belfast, Ciaran Hinds and Jamie Dornan may be in play. And if Bradley Cooper (Licorice Pizza) manages to make the cut, we’re all in for the “is this his time?!” conversation.

Down the ballot, you’ll of course see heaps of Belfast, Dune, The Power of the Dog and West Side Story and, with AMPAS announcing its shortlists for the year, I’m taking a stab at the trio of shorts categories for the first time this season.

Without further ado, here they are - updated predictions for the month of January, from most to least likely to earn a nomination. In countless cases, a contender has moved up or down from my December forecast - or dropped from its category entirely. Expect one final update in early February, just prior to Oscar nominations morning.

Bon appétit!

Best Picture

1. The Power of the Dog (+1)

2. West Side Story (+4)

3. Belfast (-2)

4. Licorice Pizza (-)

5. Dune (-2)

6. CODA (+2)

7. King Richard (-2)

8. tick, tick…BOOM! (NEW)

9. Don’t Look Up (-2)

10. The Tragedy of Macbeth (-)
    —

11. The Lost Daughter (+3)

12. Nightmare Alley (-1)

13. Being the Ricardos (-1)

14. Spider-Man: No Way Home (NEW)

15. Drive My Car (NEW)

DROPPED
C’mon C’mon (-6)
House of Gucci (-3)
Spencer (-1)

Best Director

1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (-)

2. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (+4)

3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (-1)

4. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (-)

5. Ryûsuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car (NEW)
   —

6. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (-3)

7. Siân Heder, CODA (NEW)

8. Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter (NEW)

9. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up (-2)

10. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (-2)

DROPPED
Asghar Farhadi, A Hero (-6)
Pedro Almodovar, Parallel Mothers (-2)
Reinaldo Marcus Green, King Richard (-1)

Best Actress

1. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (-)

2. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (+2)

3. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (+4)

4. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (-2)

5. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (-)
   —

6. Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza (+4)

7. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (+1)

8. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (NEW)

9. Emilia Jones, CODA (NEW)

10. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (-4)

DROPPED
Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth (-8)
Tessa Thompson, Passing (-2)

Best Actor

1. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (+2)

2. Will Smith, King Richard (-1)

3. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (-1)

4. Andrew Garfield, tick, tick…BOOM! (+2)

5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (-)

   —

6. Joaquin Phoenix, C’mon C’mon (-2)

7. Nicolas Cage, Pig (NEW)

8. Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey (-)

9. Cooper Hoffman, Licorice Pizza (-)

10. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (-3)

DROPPED
Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley (-1)

Best Supporting Actress

1. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (-)

2. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (+6)

3. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (+2)

4. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (-2)

5. Judi Dench, Belfast (-2)
   —

6. Rita Moreno, West Side Story (+1)

7. Ruth Negga, Passing (+2)

8. Marlee Matlin, CODA (-4)

9. Ann Dowd, Mass (+1)

10. Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up (-4)

Best Supporting Actor

1. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (NEW)

2. Troy Kotsur, CODA (+5)

3. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast (-)

4. Jamie Dornan, Belfast (-3)

5. J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos (+4)
   —

6. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (-2)

7. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (-5)

8. Mike Faist, West Side Story (NEW)

9. Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar (-1)

10. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog (NEW)

DROPPED
Richard Jenkins, The Humans (-6)
Woody Norman, C’mon C’mon (-4)
Jon Bernthal, King Richard (-1)

Best Original Screenplay

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (+1)

2. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (-1)

3. Adam McKay and David Sirota, Don’t Look Up (-)

4. Zach Baylin, King Richard (+2)

5. Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola, Hugo Guinness and Jason Schwartzman, The French Dispatch (+3)
   —

6. Mike Mills, C’mon C’mon (-2)

7. Asghar Farhadi, A Hero (-2)

8. Aaron Sorkin, Being the Ricardos (-1)

9. Pedro Almodovar, Parallel Mothers (-)

10. Paolo Sorrentino, The Hand of God (-)

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (-)

2. Tony Kushner, West Side Story (+3)

3. Sian Heder, CODA (-1)

4. Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter (-)

5. Ryusuke Hamaguchi and Takamasa Oe, Drive My Car (+3)
   —

6. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (-3)

7. Steven Levenson, tick, tick... BOOM! (NEW)

8. Rebecca Hall, Passing (-2)

9. Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve and Eric Roth, Dune (-2)

10. Guillermo del Toro and Kim Morgan, Nightmare Alley (-)

DROPPED
Stephen Karam, The Humans (-2)

Best Animated Feature

1. Encanto (-)

2. Flee (+1)

3. Luca (-1)

4. Raya and the Last Dragon (-)

5. Belle (-)
   —

6. Vivo (-)

7. The Summit of the Gods (-)

8. The Mitchells vs. the Machines (-)

9. Sing 2 (NEW)

10. Ron’s Gone Wrong (-1)

DROPPED
Where Is Anne Frank (-1)

Best Animated Short Film

1. Affairs of the Art

2. Bestia

3. Mum Is Pouring Rain

4. Step into the River

5. The Musician
   —

6. Namoo

7. The Windshield Wiper

8. Us Again

9. Robin Robin

10. Souvenir Souvenir

Best Documentary Feature

1. Flee (+1)

2. Summer Of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised) (+4)

3. The Rescue (-1)

4. The First Wave (+3)

5. Faya Dayi (-2)
   —

6. Writing with Fire (NEW)

7. Simple as Water (NEW)

8. Procession (-)

9. Billie Eilish: The World’s a Little Blurry (NEW)

10. Attica (-1)

DROPPED
The Lost Leonardo (-7)
Becoming Cousteau (-6)
Ailey (-1)

Best Documentary Short Subject

1. Águilas

2. Three Songs for Benazir

3. A Broken House

4. Lynching Postcards: “Token of a Great Day”

5. Sophie & the Baron
   —

6. Lead Me Home

7. Day of Rage

8. Camp Confidential: America’s Secret Nazis

9. The Queen of Basketball

10. The Facility

Best International Feature

1. Drive My Car (Japan) (+3)

2. Flee (Denmark) (-)

3. A Hero (Iran) (-2)

4. The Hand of God (Italy) (-1)

5. The Worst Person in the World (Norway) (-)
   —

6. Compartment No. 6 (Finland) (-)

7. I’m Your Man (Germany) (+3)

8. Lamb (Iceland) (NEW)

9. Prayers for the Stolen (Mexico) (-1)

10. Playground (Belgium) (NEW)

DROPPED
Titane (France) (-4)
Memoria (Colombia) (-2)

Best Live Action Short Film

1. The Criminals

2. Les Grandes Claques

3. Frimas

4. Stenofonen

5. You’re Dead Hélène
   —

6. The Long Goodbye

7. Censor of Dreams

8. The Dress

9. Distances

10. Under the Heavens

Best Cinematography

1. Greig Fraser, Dune (-)

2. Ari Wegner, The Power of the Dog (+1)

3. Janusz Kaminski, West Side Story (+2)

4. Haris Zambarloukos, Belfast (-2)

5. Bruno Delbonnel, The Tragedy of Macbeth (-1)
   —

6. Dan Laustsen, Nightmare Alley (-)

7. Paul Thomas Anderson and Michael Bauman, Licorice Pizza (+1)

8. Claire Mithon, Spencer (+1)

9. Robert Yeoman, The French Dispatch (-2)

10. Eduard Grau, Passing (-)

Best Costume Design

1. Paul Tazewell, West Side Story (+3)

2. Janty Yates, House of Gucci (-1)

3. Jacqueline Durran, Spencer (-)

4. Luis Sequeira, Nightmare Alley (+1)

5. Jenny Beavan, Cruella (-3)
   —

6. Jacqueline West, Dune (-)

7. Milena Canonero, The French Dispatch (-)

8. Massimo Cantini Parrini, Cyrano (-)

9. Susan Lyall, Being the Ricardos (-)

10. Kirsty Cameron, The Power of the Dog (NEW)

DROPPED
Michael O’Connor, The Electrical Life of Louis Wain (-1)

Best Film Editing

1. Joe Walker, Dune (-)

2. Peter Sciberras, The Power of the Dog (-)

3. Sarah Broshar and Michael Kahn, West Side Story (+3)

4. Andy Jurgensen, Licorice Pizza (+1)

5. Úna Ní Dhonghaíle, Belfast (-2)
   —

6. Tom Cross and Elliot Graham, No Time to Die (+4)

7. Pamela Martin, King Richard (-)

8. Hank Corwin, Don’t Look Up (-4)

9. Myron Kerstein and Andrew Weisblum, tick, tick... BOOM! (NEW)

10. Geraud Brisson, CODA (NEW)

DROPPED
Joseph Jett Sally, The Matrix Resurrections (-3)
Cam McLauchlin, Nightmare Alley (-2)

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

1. Jana Carboni, Giuliano Mariano and Göran Lundström, House of Gucci (-)

2. Cliona Furey and Jo-Ann MacNeil, Nightmare Alley (+5)

3. Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram and Justin Raleigh, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (+2)

4. Donald Mowat, Love Larson and Eva von Bahr, Dune (-1)

5. Nadia Stacey and Carolyn Cousins, Cruella (+3)
   —

6. Heba Thorisdottir and Janine Thompson, The Suicide Squad (+2)

7. Vera Steimberg, Merc Arceneaux, Stacey Morris and Carla Farmer, Coming 2 America (NEW)

8. Judy Chin and Kay Georgiou, West Side Story (NEW)

9. Sian Miller and Alessandro Bertolazzi, Cyrano (NEW)

10. Daniel Phillips, No Time to Die (NEW)

DROPPED
Frances Hannon, The French Dispatch (-7)
Teresa Hill and Ana Lozano, Being the Ricardos (-4)
The team from Spencer (-2)
Vickie Lang, Annette Field and Donald McInnes, The Electrical Life of Louis Wain (-1)

Best Original Score

1. Jonny Greenwood, The Power of the Dog (+1)

2. Hans Zimmer, Dune (-1)

3. Jonny Greenwood, Spencer (+1)

4. Alexandre Desplat, The French Dispatch (+1)

5. Germaine Franco, Encanto (NEW)
   —

6. Carter Burwell, The Tragedy of Macbeth (+1)

7. Alberto Iglesias, Parallel Mothers (NEW)

8. Daniel Pemberton, Being the Ricardos (+1)

9. Nicholas Britell, Don’t Look Up (-3)

10. Kris Bowers, King Richard (-)

DROPPED
Nathan Johnson, Nightmare Alley (-7)
The National, Cyrano (-3)

Best Original Song

1. “No Time to Die,” No Time to Die (-)

2. “Dos Oruguitas,” Encanto (NEW)

3. “Down to Joy,” Belfast (+1)

4. “Be Alive,” King Richard (-1)

5. “Here I Am (Singing My Way Home),” Respect (-)
   —

6. “Beyond the Shore,” CODA (-)

7. “So May We Start,” Annette (NEW)

8. “Somehow You Do,” Four Good Days (+2)

9. “Just Look Up,” Don’t Look Up (NEW)

10. “Right Where I Belong,” Brian Wilson: Long Promised Road (NEW)

DROPPED
“Colombia, Mi Encanto,” Encanto (-9)
“At the Automat,” The Automat (-4)
“Every Letter,” Cyrano (-3)
“Guns Go Bang,” The Harder They Fall (-2)

Best Production Design

1. Patrice Vermette, Richard Roberts and Zsuzsanna Sipos, Dune (-)

2. Adam Stockhausen and Rena DeAngelo, West Side Story (+2)

3. Tamara Deverell and Shane Vieau, Nightmare Alley (-)

4. Grant Major and Amber Richards, The Power of the Dog (+3)

5. Adam Stockhausen and Rena DeAngelo, The French Dispatch (-3)
   —

6. Arthur Max and Letizia Santucci, House of Gucci (-1)

7. Guy Hendrix-Dyas and Yesim Zolan, Spencer (+1)

8. Stefan Dechant and Nancy Haigh, The Tragedy of Macbeth (+1)

9. Jon Hutman and Ellen Brill, Being the Ricardos (-3)

10. Jim Clay and Claire Nia Richards, Belfast (-)

Best Sound

1. Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Theo Green, Doug Hemphill and Ron Bartlett, Dune (-)

2. Gary Rydstrom, Brian Chumney, Andy Nelson, Tod Maitland and Shawn Murphy, West Side Story (-)

3. Robert Mackenzie, Richard Flynn, Leah Katz, Tara Webb and Dave Whitehead, The Power of the Dog (NEW)

4. Willie Burton, Kevin O’Connell, Tony Lambert, Steven Ticknor and Vanessa Lapato, Spider-Man: No Way Home (NEW)

5. Simon Hayes, Oliver Tarney and Paul Massey, No Time to Die (+4)
   —

6. Paul Hsu and Todd A. Maitland, tick, tick...BOOM! (NEW)

7. Simon Chase, James Mather, Denise Yarde and Niv Adris, Belfast (-4)

8. Ethan Van Der Ryn, Erik Aadahl, Michael Barosky and Brandon Proctor, A Quiet Place Part II (-2)

9. Barry O’Sullivan, Dana A. Davis, Stephanie Flack, Matthias Lempert and Lars Ginzel, The Matrix Resurrections (-6)

10. Julian Slater, Dan Morgan, Colin Nicolson, Tim Cavagin, Last Night in Soho (NEW)

DROPPED
Oliver Tarney, Paul Massey, David Giammarco, William Miller, Daniel Birch and Stéphanie Bucher, The Last Duel (-6)
Jared Detsikes, Martin Pinsonnault, Stéphane Bergeron and Alexandra Fehrman, CODA (-4)
Nathan Robitaille, Jill Purdy, Christian Cooke, Brad Zoern and Greg Chapman, Nightmare Alley (-3)
The team from Don’t Look Up (-1)

Best Visual Effects

1. Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor and Gerd Nefzer, Dune (-)

2. Kelly Port, Chris Waegner, Scott Edelstein and Dan Sudick, Spider-Man: No Way Home (+1)

3. Dan Glass, Huw J Evans, Tom Debenham and J.D. Schwalm, The Matrix Resurrections (-1)

4. Christopher Townsend, Joe Farrell, Sean Walker, Dan Oliver, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (-)

5. Swen Gillberg, Bryan Grill, Nikos Kalaitzidis and Dan Sudick, Free Guy (+1)
   —

6. Charlie Noble and Chris Corbould, No Time to Die (+3)

7. Stephane Ceretti, Daniele Bigi, Matt Aitken and Neil Corbould, Eternals (+3)

8. John Desjardin, Bryan Hirota, Kevin Smith and Mike Meinardus, Godzilla vs. Kong (NEW)

9. Alessandro Ongaro, Sheena Duggal, Aharon Bourland and Pier Lefebvre, Ghostbusters: Afterlife (NEW)

10. Geoffrey Baumann, Dave Hodgins, Craig Hammack and Paul Corbould, Black Widow (NEW)

DROPPED
The team from Finch (-6)
The team from Nightmare Alley (-4)
The team from Don’t Look Up (-3)

2021 Oscar Nomination Predictions (December)

Hey there. ;)

It’s been more than two months since I released my first set of Oscar nomination predictions for the season. I flirted with an October update, only to realize those initial hunches wouldn’t change a whole lot with a revision.

This, however, feels like a prime point to get a revised set of predictions in place. In a mere matter of days, the likes of the National Board of Review and New York Film Critics Circle will release their lists of honorees, followed shortly by the Los Angeles Film Critics Association, Critics Choice Association and a myriad of other critics groups looking to influence the awards season conversation with their selections. By month’s end, with guild awards on the horizon in January, we’re liable to already be reeling from what likely to be a dizzying season of precursors.

So, before those groups have their say, let’s update these bad boys.

As I write this, with first reactions finally coming in this week for West Side Story, there’s really just one big question mark in terms of contenders that’ve yet to be screened - Nightmare Alley. This one’s giving me more The Black Dahlia and Shutter Island than The Shape of Water vibes but, for now, I’ll presume Guillermo del Toro’s latest lavish production will prove at least a modest awards season force to be reckoned with.

When it comes to scoring nominations across a plethora of categories, Belfast and The Power of the Dog continue to look like the surest bets, though neither is quite convincing me as our Best Picture winner. While I can fathom it being Belfast in the end, I’ve more got my eye on King Richard, Licorice Pizza and perhaps even West Side Story as the crowd-pleasing contenders that might just go all the way. Barring Nightmare Alley exceeding expectations in a big way, I don’t see another contender out there poised to be a formidable force for the Best Picture win (sorry, Dune fans).

In the acting fields, Best Actress increasingly strikes me as a barnburner between Kristen Stewart and Nicole Kidman, even if I’m not super-sold on Spencer and Being the Ricardos in many other categories. While I hesitate to ever use the L-word (you know, the one that rhymes with mock) in awards season prognostication, Will Smith looks about as close to a shoo-in as you can get for the Best Actor trophy. Far less settled are the two Supporting races, which lack sure bets for nominations, let alone sport anything close to clear front-runners for wins.

Going back to Dune for a sec - while I remain unconvinced it’ll be a threat for the Best Picture win, it sure does look like a juggernaut down the ballot in the technical races, especially if any of the likes of Nightmare Alley and The Matrix Resurrections don’t prove intimating awards season forces. For the first time this season, I have made predictions in these categories and yes, you’ll see all three of these pictures scattered across them.

Let’s get to the good stuff. Below you’ll find updated predictions for the month of December, from most to least likely to earn a nomination. In many cases, a contender has moved up or down from my September forecast - or fallen out of its category entirely. Expect another update early in the New Year, at that point with the shorts included.

Enjoy! :)

Best Picture

1. Belfast (-)

2. The Power of the Dog (-)

3. Dune (+7)

4. Licorice Pizza (+4)

5. King Richard (-2)

6. West Side Story (-1)

7. Don’t Look Up (-)

8. CODA (+1)

9. The Tragedy of Macbeth (-3)

10. C’mon C’mon (+2)
    —

11. Nightmare Alley (-7)

12. Being the Ricardos (NEW)

13. House of Gucci (-1)

14. The Lost Daughter (+1)

15. Spencer (-4)

DROPPED
The French Dispatch (-2)

Best Director

1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (-)

2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (+2)

3. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (-1)

4. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (+1)

5. Asghar Farhadi, A Hero (NEW)
   —

6. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (+1)

7. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up (-1)

8. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (-5)

9. Pedro Almodovar, Parallel Mothers (-)

10. Reinaldo Marcus Green, King Richard (-)

DROPPED
Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (-3)

Best Actress

1. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (-)

2. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (+6)

3. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth (NEW)

4. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (-3)

5. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (-)
   —

6. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (-2)

7. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (-1)

8. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (-5)

9. Tessa Thompson, Passing (NEW)

10. Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza (NEW)

DROPPED
Jennifer Lawrence, Don’t Look Up (-4)
Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley (-2)
Halle Berry, Bruised (-1)

Best Actor

1. Will Smith, King Richard (-)

2. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (-)

3. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (+1)

4. Joaquin Phoenix, C’mon C’mon (-1)

5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (-)
   —

6. Andrew Garfield, tick, tick…BOOM! (+2)

7. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (-1)

8. Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey (-1)

9. Cooper Hoffman, Licorice Pizza (NEW)

10. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley (-1)

DROPPED
Adam Driver, House of Gucci (-1)

Best Supporting Actress

1. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (+3)

2. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (+2)

3. Judi Dench, Belfast (-1)

4. Marlee Matlin, CODA (+2)

5. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (+3)
   —

6. Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up (+1)

7. Rita Moreno, West Side Story (NEW)

8. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (-3)

9. Ruth Negga, Passing (+2)

10. Ann Dowd, Mass (+1)

DROPPED
Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth (-10)

Best Supporting Actor

1. Jamie Dornan, Belfast (+5)

2. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (+2)

3. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast (+4)

4. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (-3)

5. Richard Jenkins, The Humans (-)
   —

6. Troy Kotsur, CODA (+4)

7. Woody Norman, C’mon C’mon (NEW)

8. Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar (NEW)

9. J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos (NEW)

10. Jon Bernthal, King Richard (NEW)

DROPPED
Corey Hawkins, The Tragedy of Macbeth (-9)
Jonah Hill, Don’t Look Up (-8)
Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog (-3)
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (-2)

Best Original Screenplay

1. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (-)

2. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (-)

3. Adam McKay and David Sirota, Don’t Look Up (-)

4. Mike Mills, C’mon C’mon (-)

5. Asghar Farhadi, A Hero (NEW)
   —

6. Zach Baylin, King Richard (-1)

7. Aaron Sorkin, Being the Ricardos (+3)

8. Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola, Hugo Guinness and Jason Schwartzman, The French Dispatch (-1)

9. Pedro Almodovar, Parallel Mothers (-3)

10. Paolo Sorrentino, The Hand of God (-1)

DROPPED
Steven Knight, Spencer (-3)

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (-)

2. Sian Heder, CODA (+2)

3. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (-1)

4. Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter (-1)

5. Tony Kushner, West Side Story (+3)
   —

6. Rebecca Hall, Passing (-)

7. Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve and Eric Roth, Dune (+3)

8. Ryusuke Hamaguchi and Takamasa Oe, Drive My Car (NEW)

9. Stephen Karam, The Humans (-4)

10. Guillermo del Toro and Kim Morgan, Nightmare Alley (-3)

DROPPED
Becky Johnston and Roberto Bentivegna, House of Gucci (-2)

Best Animated Feature

1. Encanto

2. Luca

3. Flee

4. Raya and the Last Dragon

5. Belle
   —

6. Vivo

7. The Summit of the Gods

8. The Mitchells vs. the Machines

9. Ron’s Gone Wrong

10. Where Is Anne Frank

Best Documentary Feature

1. Flee

2. The Rescue

3. Faya Dayi

4. The Lost Leonardo

5. Becoming Cousteau
   —

6. Summer Of Soul

7. The First Wave

8. Procession

9. Attica

10. Ailey

Best International Feature

1. A Hero (Iran)

2. Flee (Denmark)

3. The Hand of God (Italy)

4. Drive My Car (Japan)

5. The Worst Person in the World (Norway)
   —

6. Compartment No. 6 (Finland)

7. Titane (France)

8. Prayers for the Stolen (Mexico)

9. Memoria (Colombia)

10. I’m Your Man (Germany)

Best Cinematography

1. Greig Fraser, Dune

2. Haris Zambarloukos, Belfast

3. Ari Wegner, The Power of the Dog

4. Bruno Delbonnel, The Tragedy of Macbeth

5. Janusz Kaminski, West Side Story
   —

6. Dan Laustsen, Nightmare Alley

7. Robert Yeoman, The French Dispatch

8. Paul Thomas Anderson and Michael Bauman, Licorice Pizza

9. Claire Mithon, Spencer

10. Eduard Grau, Passing

Best Costume Design

1. Jacqueline West, House of Gucci

2. Jenny Beavan, Cruella

3. Jacqueline Durran, Spencer

4. Paul Tazewell, West Side Story

5. Luis Sequeira, Nightmare Alley
   —

6. Jacqueline West, Dune

7. Milena Canonero, The French Dispatch

8. Massimo Cantini Parrini, Cyrano

9. Susan Lyall, Being the Ricardos

10. Michael O’Connor, The Electrical Life of Louis Wain

Best Film Editing

1. Joe Walker, Dune

2. Peter Sciberras, The Power of the Dog

3. Úna Ní Dhonghaíle, Belfast

4. Hank Corwin, Don’t Look Up

5. Andy Jurgensen, Licorice Pizza
   —

6. Sarah Broshar and Michael Kahn, West Side Story

7. Pamela Martin, King Richard

8. Joseph Jett Sally, The Matrix Resurrections

9. Cam McLauchlin, Nightmare Alley

10. Tom Cross and Elliot Graham, No Time to Die

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

1. Jana Carboni, Giuliano Mariano and Göran Lundström, House of Gucci

2. The team from Cruella

3. Donald Mowat, Love Larson and Eva von Bahr, Dune

4. Frances Hannon, The French Dispatch

5. Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram and Justin Raleigh, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
   —

6. Cliona Furey and Jo-Ann MacNeil, Nightmare Alley

7. Teresa Hill and Ana Lozano, Being the Ricardos

8. Heba Thorisdottir and Janine Thompson, The Suicide Squad

9. The team from Spencer

10. Vickie Lang, Annette Field and Donald McInnes, The Electrical Life of Louis Wain

Best Original Score

1. Hans Zimmer, Dune

2. Jonny Greenwood, The Power of the Dog

3. Jonny Greenwood, Spencer

4. Nathan Johnson, Nightmare Alley

5. Alexandre Desplat, The French Dispatch
   —

6. Nicholas Britell, Don’t Look Up

7. Carter Burwell, The Tragedy of Macbeth

8. The National, Cyrano

9. Daniel Pemberton, Being the Ricardos

10. Kris Bowers, King Richard

Best Original Song

1. “No Time to Die,” No Time to Die

2. “Colombia, Mi Encanto,” Encanto

3. “Be Alive,” King Richard

4. “Down to Joy,” Belfast

5. “Here I Am (Singing My Way Home),” Respect
   —

6. “Beyond the Shore,” CODA

7. “At the Automat,” The Automat

8. “Every Letter,” Cyrano

9. “Guns Go Bang,” The Harder They Fall

10. “Somehow You Do,” Four Good Days

Best Production Design

1. Patrice Vermette, Richard Roberts and Zsuzsanna Sipos, Dune

2. Adam Stockhausen and Rena DeAngelo, The French Dispatch

3. Tamara Deverell and Shane Vieau, Nightmare Alley

4. Adam Stockhausen and Rena DeAngelo, West Side Story

5. Arthur Max and Letizia Santucci, House of Gucci
   —

6. Jon Hutman and Ellen Brill, Being the Ricardos

7. Grant Major and Amber Richards, The Power of the Dog

8. Guy Hendrix-Dyas and Yesim Zolan, Spencer

9. Stefan Dechant and Nancy Haigh, The Tragedy of Macbeth

10. Jim Clay and Claire Nia Richards, Belfast

Best Sound

1. Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Theo Green, Doug Hemphill and Ron Bartlett, Dune

2. The team from West Side Story

3. Barry O’Sullivan, Dana A. Davis, Stephanie Flack, Matthias Lempert and Lars Ginzel, The Matrix Resurrections

4. Simon Chase, James Mather, Denise Yarde and Niv Adris, Belfast

5. Oliver Tarney, Paul Massey, David Giammarco, William Miller, Daniel Birch and Stéphanie Bucher, The Last Duel
   —

6. The team from A Quiet Place Part II

7. Jared Detsikes, Martin Pinsonnault, Stéphane Bergeron and Alexandra Fehrman, CODA

8. Nathan Robitaille, Jill Purdy, Christian Cooke, Brad Zoern and Greg Chapman, Nightmare Alley

9. The team from No Time to Die

10. The team from Don’t Look Up

Best Visual Effects

1. Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor and Gerd Nefzer, Dune

2. Dan Glass, The Matrix Resurrections

3. The team from Spider-Man: No Way Home

4. The team from Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings

5. The team from Finch
   —

6. The team from Free Guy

7. The team from Nightmare Alley

8. The team from Don’t Look Up

9. The team from No Time to Die

10. The team from Eternals

2021 Oscar Nomination Predictions (September)

Here we go again…

It feels like just yesterday that I was inexplicably making the case for Andra Day in Best Actress and clinging to the hope that, at last, it could be Diane Warren’s year in Best Original Song. (Though, let’s be fair, both may have come reasonably close.)

In years past, I’ve usually by this point released an opening set of Summer Oscar Predictions but, having seen a total of seven feature films thus far this year, let’s just say I haven’t been the most engaged or clamoring to dive into the season. Alas, there of course comes a point where I, Oscar nut, cannot help myself.

So, I have indeed assembled my first set of Oscar predictions, albeit just in the top eight categories for now. And what I love, right off the bat, is the crossover between these and my first set of predictions from the last cycle, which also sported the likes of C’mon C’mon, The Humans, Respect and West Side Story. What a haphazard time it’s been.

At this point in the season, I’m never terribly confident about too many contenders. In Best Picture, for instance, only Belfast and The Power of the Dog strike me as anything close to shoo-ins for nominations - and it seems completely within the realm of possibility that the Jane Campion picture, which isn’t without its detractors, could underperform a bit.

Dune and Nightmare Alley sure look ravishing, destined to dine on the technical categories, but how much will they factor into the top eight? For now, I suspect both do…to an extent. Likewise, we’re looking at big acting contenders like King Richard, Spencer and The Tragedy of Macbeth that may or not may prove formidable elsewhere.

There are a few hopefuls I’m not much sold on. Neither Ridley Scott picture (House of Gucci and The Last Duel) strikes me as poised to make a big splash, though you’ll see the first film scattered here and there in my predictions. Being the Ricardos reeks to me of impending misfire and Mass may be among the year’s best-acted films but it’s stuck with a distributor that’s never proven successful in playing the awards season game.

And there remain a number of question marks around category placement, perhaps most notably with Belfast’s Caitriona Balfe and Jamie Dornan, both of who can make the cut in either field. Macbeth’s Frances McDormand and Ricardos’ Javier Bardem are a couple of the other names who could seemingly go either way.

All that said, here are my hunches for now, ranked from most to least likely to be nominated. I’ll update these babies sometime later in the fall, at which point we’ll surely have some new contenders.

Who knows, perhaps Glenn Close gives a career-best turn in Swan Song. ;)

Best Picture

1. Belfast

2. The Power of the Dog

3. King Richard

4. Nightmare Alley

5. West Side Story

6. The Tragedy of Macbeth

7. Don’t Look Up

8. Licorice Pizza

9. CODA

10. Dune
    —

11. Spencer

12. C’mon C’mon

13. House of Gucci

14. The French Dispatch

15. The Lost Daughter

Best Director

1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

2. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast

3. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley

4. Denis Villeneuve, Dune

5. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
   —

6. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up

7. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story

8. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth

9. Pedro Almodovar, Parallel Mothers

10. Reinaldo Marcus Green, King Richard

Best Actress

1. Kristen Stewart, Spencer

2. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter

3. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

4. Jennifer Hudson, Respect

5. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
   —

6. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci

7. Jennifer Lawrence, Don’t Look Up

8. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos

9. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley

10. Halle Berry, Bruised

Best Actor

1. Will Smith, King Richard

2. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth

3. Joaquin Phoenix, C’mon C’mon

4. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog

5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up
   —

6. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano

7. Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey

8. Andrew Garfield, tick, tick…BOOM!

9. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley

10. Adam Driver, House of Gucci

Best Supporting Actress

1. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth

2. Judi Dench, Belfast

3. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog

4. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast

5. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
   —

6. Marlee Matlin, CODA

7. Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up

8. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard

9. Ruth Negga, Passing

10. Ann Dowd, Mass

Best Supporting Actor

1. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza

2. Corey Hawkins, The Tragedy of Macbeth

3. Jonah Hill, Don’t Look Up

4. Jared Leto, House of Gucci

5. Richard Jenkins, The Humans
   —

6. Jamie Dornan, Belfast

7. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast

8. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog

9. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog

10. Troy Kotsur, CODA

Best Original Screenplay

1. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast

2. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza

3. Adam McKay and David Sirota, Don’t Look Up

4. Mike Mills, C’mon C’mon

5. Zach Baylin, King Richard
   —

6. Pedro Almodovar, Parallel Mothers

7. Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola, Hugo Guinness and Jason Schwartzman, The French Dispatch

8. Steven Knight, Spencer

9. Paolo Sorrentino, The Hand of God

10. Aaron Sorkin, Being the Ricardos

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

2. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth

3. Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter

4. Sian Heder, CODA

5. Stephen Karam, The Humans
   —

6. Rebecca Hall, Passing

7. Guillermo del Toro and Kim Morgan, Nightmare Alley

8. Tony Kushner, West Side Story

9. Becky Johnston and Roberto Bentivegna, House of Gucci

10. Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve and Eric Roth, Dune