2025 SAG Actor Awards Winner Predictions

Best Motion Picture Ensemble

1. Sinners

2. One Battle After Another

3. Hamnet

4. Marty Supreme

5. Frankenstein

One Battle After Another may be the commanding Best Picture favorite but Sinners should have an edge for top honors at SAG. The Miles Caton nomination is a testament to how much voters love it. OBAA cannot be entirely counted out, though, and if it does win, the Best Picture Oscar race is all but over.

Best Female Actor in a Leading Role

1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

2. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

3. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue

4. Emma Stone, Bugonia

5. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another

SAG has a tendency to honor leading ladies who don’t go on to win the Oscar, with roughly one-third (10 out of 31) of their Lead Actress winners falling short with AMPAS. Hence, there is perhaps some reason to believe Byrne or even Hudson could score the upset but Buckley rings of too strong a front-runner to overtake. Had Hamnet underperformed here, say by missing in Best Ensemble, I may have entertained a Byrne prediction.

Best Male Actor in a Leading Role

1. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

2. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme

3. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon

4. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another

5. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia

Yeah, I’m gonna go there. Odds are I’m lending too much weight to Marty Supreme’s 0-for-11 BAFTA shutout and/or the Safdie Brothers controversy and/or the fact that Chamalet just prevailed here last year (and no one has ever scored consecutive SAG film wins in the same category) but this race strikes me as ripe for an upset, even if Chamalet remains the Oscar favorite. If anyone can pull this off, I suspect it’s Jordan, adored by his peers and headlining the likely Best Ensemble winner. For a time, I thought Hawke could prove a SAG threat but the momentum just isn’t there.

Best Female Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Amy Madigan, Weapons

2. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners

3. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

4. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good

5. Odessa A'zion, Marty Supreme

Idk! It won’t be A’zion or Grande but, beyond that, this is a very tough race to project. Post-Golden Globes/pre-BAFTA, my hunch was Taylor would simply steamroll through to the Oscars, likely marking OBAA’s lone acting win. Now, with Mosaku triumphing at BAFTA, this rings of a three-way barn burner and I’m back to my earlier inclination that Madigan, who has worked with countless actors in her more than four-decade career, probably has the edge at SAG.

It’s a win that would make perfect sense, given SAG’s penchant for honoring veteran actors, even if AMPAS doesn’t ultimately bite. Weapons has perhaps lost some momentum, as exemplified by Madigan being the film’s lone Oscar nominee, but I still think she can pull SAG off. If Mosaku wins here, she will be very tough to beat for the Oscar. If Taylor triumphs, expect a close finish between her and Mosaku for the Oscar, with Madigan at that point an also-ran.

Best Male Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

2. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein

3. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another

4. Miles Caton, Sinners

5. Paul Mescal, Hamnet

OBAA will not go home empty-handed at SAG. Prior to last weekend, my hunch was del Toro may prevail here but now, post-BAFTA, it’s tough to argue against Penn. I wouldn’t, however, count out Elordi, given the seemingly strong support for Best Ensemble nominee Frankenstein, nor would I be stunned if Caton rides a Sinners wave, pulling an Emily Blunt/Idris Elba (SAG win without an Oscar nom).

Best Motion Picture Stunt Ensemble

1. F1

2. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning

3. Sinners

4. One Battle After Another

5. Frankenstein

I’m seeing the bulk of predictions go for Mission: Impossible and this makes sense, given Dead Reckoning Part One’s victory two years back. It should be noted, however, that such marked the franchise’s first SAG victory, with Fallout and Rogue Nation earlier falling short. My gut says F1, which has seen a remarkably robust awards season run, actually takes this. Highly unlikely would be any of the other three. Since this category’s inception in 2007, Black Panther remains the lone SAG Best Ensemble nominee to win Best Stunt Ensemble.