2025 SAG Actor Awards Nomination Predictions

Best Motion Picture Ensemble

1. One Battle After Another

2. Sinners

3. Marty Supreme

4. Hamnet

5. Wicked: For Good
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6. Jay Kelly

7. Frankenstein

8. Sentimental Value

9. It Was Just an Accident

10. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

One Battle After Another, Sinners, Marty Supreme and Hamnet should be safe bets to make the cut here - should any miss, it will be a startling gut punch, on the level of The Brutalist’s snub last year.

The suspense likely lies with that final slot. Wicked was so adored with the last SAG awards that Jonathan Bailey, out of nowhere, made the cut for an individual nomination. Surely, that love will lessen this year, given Wicked: For Good’s more lukewarm critical and commercial reception - but will there be just enough affection to still land it an Ensemble nom? I suspect there just might, in part given the lack of a clear alternative.

Jay Kelly, for instance, sports a cast of beloved actors and could see individual SAG noms for both George Clooney and Adam Sandler, but hasn’t exactly proven an awards season juggernaut. Frankenstein has had a more robust presence but not so much in terms of cast recognition - at Critics’ Choice, for instance, it earned 11 noms but couldn’t break into their Casting/Ensemble lineup of six. Some are predicting Sentimental Value but I worry about a slight underperformance with SAG, given their penchant for being lukewarm on international films.

Ultimately, I do go with Wicked: For Good, in part because I also see Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande hanging on for individual SAG noms, even if their Oscar hopes are looking increasingly uncertain.

Best Female Actor in a Leading Role

1. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

2. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

3. Emma Stone, Bugonia

4. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good

5. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another
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6. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value

7. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue

8. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt

9. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee

10. Jennifer Lawrence, Die My Love

Where I have confidence in four of the Best Ensemble contenders, I only feel certainty about Byrne and Buckley in Best Female Actor in a Leading Role.

After all, this is a category where we’ve seen the likes of Pamela Anderson, Jennifer Hudson and Amy Adams surface in recent years. We could be in for comparable curveballs, like Roberts making the cut, despite After the Hunt’s collapse as an awards season contender, or Hudson emerging, given the positive audience reception to Song Sung Blue.

In the end, I think Stone makes it here - Bugonia may be divisive but it’s also widely seen (more so than say, The Testament of Ann Lee) and often, earlier releases will fare well here (SAG nominee Judi Dench in Victoria & Abdul, for instance, comes to mind). If, as I suspect, Wicked: For Good cracks Best Ensemble, there is a good chance Erivo follows suit with an individual nom. That leaves Infiniti and Reinsve and again, I fear (hopefully, wrongfully so) Sentimental Value may not resonate quite as much with SAG as it has critics’ organizations.

Best Male Actor in a Leading Role

1. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another

2. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme

3. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon

4. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

5. George Clooney, Jay Kelly
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6. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

7. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams

8. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent

9. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein

10. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine

Much like with the top prize, this rings of a race with four reasonably sure bets and a doubtful jump ball for the final slot. With AMPAS, I suspect Moura, on the heels of a likely Golden Globe win and all of the buzz generated from that, will make the final five. Here, I’m inclined to give the edge to Clooney, though could also fathom White making the cut, ala Hudson for Respect and Taron Egerton for Rocketman. Perhaps Edgerton will land at BAFTA? Sadly, I’m a little skeptical of his odds here.

Best Female Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

2. Amy Madigan, Weapons

3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value

4. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good

5. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine
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6. Odessa A'zion, Marty Supreme

7. Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

8. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners

9. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value

10. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme

We are blessed to have such a busy Best Supporting Actress race this year! Such, however, makes it hard to confidently make predictions.

I think Taylor and Madigan are reasonably sure bets, but there are so many contenders that I could fathom a Regina King-level snub of either. Despite my hesitation to predict much Sentimental Value at SAG, I do think Fanning scores a nom, while I’m more bearish on Lilleaas. If Erivo’s in, Grande will be too. And if Blunt could land SAG recognition for The Girl on the Train and Mary Poppins Returns and even win for A Quiet Place, I have to think she’s a formidable contender here, even if the performance is polarizing and the film flopped.

That said, any of these 10 could undoubtedly make the cut, as could Regina Hall. SAG has a curious history of recognizing actors whose last names appear early in the alphabet - if that again proves the case, A'zion could have it made in the shade. And Close is such a SAG mainstay, with two wins over 10 career nominations, but can she overcome her film’s middling presence so far this season? I’m not so sure, especially with the first two Knives Out scoring nothing at SAG, though if anyone could, it’s a beloved icon like Close.

Best Male Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another

2. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

3. Paul Mescal, Hamnet

4. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value

5. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly
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6. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein

7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners

8. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good

9. Miles Caton, Sinners

10. Billy Crudup, Jay Kelly

Like in Best Male Actor in a Leading Role, the suspense here looks to be exclusively around that fifth slot, with Sandler and Elordi closely contending. My feeling is if Sandler could score a SAG nom for Hustle, he can surely do the same for Jay Kelly. On the other hand, at this point, Frankenstein feels more relevant than Jay Kelly in the overall awards season. If Sinners resonates with SAG voters to an even greater extent than anticipated, it could be Lindo or Caton taking that spot. And yes, after his appearance last year, I suppose we shouldn’t completely count out a Bailey return!