2021 Oscar Nomination Predictions (December)

Hey there. ;)

It’s been more than two months since I released my first set of Oscar nomination predictions for the season. I flirted with an October update, only to realize those initial hunches wouldn’t change a whole lot with a revision.

This, however, feels like a prime point to get a revised set of predictions in place. In a mere matter of days, the likes of the National Board of Review and New York Film Critics Circle will release their lists of honorees, followed shortly by the Los Angeles Film Critics Association, Critics Choice Association and a myriad of other critics groups looking to influence the awards season conversation with their selections. By month’s end, with guild awards on the horizon in January, we’re liable to already be reeling from what likely to be a dizzying season of precursors.

So, before those groups have their say, let’s update these bad boys.

As I write this, with first reactions finally coming in this week for West Side Story, there’s really just one big question mark in terms of contenders that’ve yet to be screened - Nightmare Alley. This one’s giving me more The Black Dahlia and Shutter Island than The Shape of Water vibes but, for now, I’ll presume Guillermo del Toro’s latest lavish production will prove at least a modest awards season force to be reckoned with.

When it comes to scoring nominations across a plethora of categories, Belfast and The Power of the Dog continue to look like the surest bets, though neither is quite convincing me as our Best Picture winner. While I can fathom it being Belfast in the end, I’ve more got my eye on King Richard, Licorice Pizza and perhaps even West Side Story as the crowd-pleasing contenders that might just go all the way. Barring Nightmare Alley exceeding expectations in a big way, I don’t see another contender out there poised to be a formidable force for the Best Picture win (sorry, Dune fans).

In the acting fields, Best Actress increasingly strikes me as a barnburner between Kristen Stewart and Nicole Kidman, even if I’m not super-sold on Spencer and Being the Ricardos in many other categories. While I hesitate to ever use the L-word (you know, the one that rhymes with mock) in awards season prognostication, Will Smith looks about as close to a shoo-in as you can get for the Best Actor trophy. Far less settled are the two Supporting races, which lack sure bets for nominations, let alone sport anything close to clear front-runners for wins.

Going back to Dune for a sec - while I remain unconvinced it’ll be a threat for the Best Picture win, it sure does look like a juggernaut down the ballot in the technical races, especially if any of the likes of Nightmare Alley and The Matrix Resurrections don’t prove intimating awards season forces. For the first time this season, I have made predictions in these categories and yes, you’ll see all three of these pictures scattered across them.

Let’s get to the good stuff. Below you’ll find updated predictions for the month of December, from most to least likely to earn a nomination. In many cases, a contender has moved up or down from my September forecast - or fallen out of its category entirely. Expect another update early in the New Year, at that point with the shorts included.

Enjoy! :)

Best Picture

1. Belfast (-)

2. The Power of the Dog (-)

3. Dune (+7)

4. Licorice Pizza (+4)

5. King Richard (-2)

6. West Side Story (-1)

7. Don’t Look Up (-)

8. CODA (+1)

9. The Tragedy of Macbeth (-3)

10. C’mon C’mon (+2)
    —

11. Nightmare Alley (-7)

12. Being the Ricardos (NEW)

13. House of Gucci (-1)

14. The Lost Daughter (+1)

15. Spencer (-4)

DROPPED
The French Dispatch (-2)

Best Director

1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (-)

2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (+2)

3. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (-1)

4. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (+1)

5. Asghar Farhadi, A Hero (NEW)
   —

6. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (+1)

7. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up (-1)

8. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (-5)

9. Pedro Almodovar, Parallel Mothers (-)

10. Reinaldo Marcus Green, King Richard (-)

DROPPED
Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (-3)

Best Actress

1. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (-)

2. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (+6)

3. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth (NEW)

4. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (-3)

5. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (-)
   —

6. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (-2)

7. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (-1)

8. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (-5)

9. Tessa Thompson, Passing (NEW)

10. Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza (NEW)

DROPPED
Jennifer Lawrence, Don’t Look Up (-4)
Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley (-2)
Halle Berry, Bruised (-1)

Best Actor

1. Will Smith, King Richard (-)

2. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (-)

3. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (+1)

4. Joaquin Phoenix, C’mon C’mon (-1)

5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (-)
   —

6. Andrew Garfield, tick, tick…BOOM! (+2)

7. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (-1)

8. Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey (-1)

9. Cooper Hoffman, Licorice Pizza (NEW)

10. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley (-1)

DROPPED
Adam Driver, House of Gucci (-1)

Best Supporting Actress

1. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (+3)

2. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (+2)

3. Judi Dench, Belfast (-1)

4. Marlee Matlin, CODA (+2)

5. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (+3)
   —

6. Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up (+1)

7. Rita Moreno, West Side Story (NEW)

8. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (-3)

9. Ruth Negga, Passing (+2)

10. Ann Dowd, Mass (+1)

DROPPED
Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth (-10)

Best Supporting Actor

1. Jamie Dornan, Belfast (+5)

2. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (+2)

3. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast (+4)

4. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (-3)

5. Richard Jenkins, The Humans (-)
   —

6. Troy Kotsur, CODA (+4)

7. Woody Norman, C’mon C’mon (NEW)

8. Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar (NEW)

9. J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos (NEW)

10. Jon Bernthal, King Richard (NEW)

DROPPED
Corey Hawkins, The Tragedy of Macbeth (-9)
Jonah Hill, Don’t Look Up (-8)
Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog (-3)
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (-2)

Best Original Screenplay

1. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (-)

2. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (-)

3. Adam McKay and David Sirota, Don’t Look Up (-)

4. Mike Mills, C’mon C’mon (-)

5. Asghar Farhadi, A Hero (NEW)
   —

6. Zach Baylin, King Richard (-1)

7. Aaron Sorkin, Being the Ricardos (+3)

8. Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola, Hugo Guinness and Jason Schwartzman, The French Dispatch (-1)

9. Pedro Almodovar, Parallel Mothers (-3)

10. Paolo Sorrentino, The Hand of God (-1)

DROPPED
Steven Knight, Spencer (-3)

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (-)

2. Sian Heder, CODA (+2)

3. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (-1)

4. Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter (-1)

5. Tony Kushner, West Side Story (+3)
   —

6. Rebecca Hall, Passing (-)

7. Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve and Eric Roth, Dune (+3)

8. Ryusuke Hamaguchi and Takamasa Oe, Drive My Car (NEW)

9. Stephen Karam, The Humans (-4)

10. Guillermo del Toro and Kim Morgan, Nightmare Alley (-3)

DROPPED
Becky Johnston and Roberto Bentivegna, House of Gucci (-2)

Best Animated Feature

1. Encanto

2. Luca

3. Flee

4. Raya and the Last Dragon

5. Belle
   —

6. Vivo

7. The Summit of the Gods

8. The Mitchells vs. the Machines

9. Ron’s Gone Wrong

10. Where Is Anne Frank

Best Documentary Feature

1. Flee

2. The Rescue

3. Faya Dayi

4. The Lost Leonardo

5. Becoming Cousteau
   —

6. Summer Of Soul

7. The First Wave

8. Procession

9. Attica

10. Ailey

Best International Feature

1. A Hero (Iran)

2. Flee (Denmark)

3. The Hand of God (Italy)

4. Drive My Car (Japan)

5. The Worst Person in the World (Norway)
   —

6. Compartment No. 6 (Finland)

7. Titane (France)

8. Prayers for the Stolen (Mexico)

9. Memoria (Colombia)

10. I’m Your Man (Germany)

Best Cinematography

1. Greig Fraser, Dune

2. Haris Zambarloukos, Belfast

3. Ari Wegner, The Power of the Dog

4. Bruno Delbonnel, The Tragedy of Macbeth

5. Janusz Kaminski, West Side Story
   —

6. Dan Laustsen, Nightmare Alley

7. Robert Yeoman, The French Dispatch

8. Paul Thomas Anderson and Michael Bauman, Licorice Pizza

9. Claire Mithon, Spencer

10. Eduard Grau, Passing

Best Costume Design

1. Jacqueline West, House of Gucci

2. Jenny Beavan, Cruella

3. Jacqueline Durran, Spencer

4. Paul Tazewell, West Side Story

5. Luis Sequeira, Nightmare Alley
   —

6. Jacqueline West, Dune

7. Milena Canonero, The French Dispatch

8. Massimo Cantini Parrini, Cyrano

9. Susan Lyall, Being the Ricardos

10. Michael O’Connor, The Electrical Life of Louis Wain

Best Film Editing

1. Joe Walker, Dune

2. Peter Sciberras, The Power of the Dog

3. Úna Ní Dhonghaíle, Belfast

4. Hank Corwin, Don’t Look Up

5. Andy Jurgensen, Licorice Pizza
   —

6. Sarah Broshar and Michael Kahn, West Side Story

7. Pamela Martin, King Richard

8. Joseph Jett Sally, The Matrix Resurrections

9. Cam McLauchlin, Nightmare Alley

10. Tom Cross and Elliot Graham, No Time to Die

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

1. Jana Carboni, Giuliano Mariano and Göran Lundström, House of Gucci

2. The team from Cruella

3. Donald Mowat, Love Larson and Eva von Bahr, Dune

4. Frances Hannon, The French Dispatch

5. Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram and Justin Raleigh, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
   —

6. Cliona Furey and Jo-Ann MacNeil, Nightmare Alley

7. Teresa Hill and Ana Lozano, Being the Ricardos

8. Heba Thorisdottir and Janine Thompson, The Suicide Squad

9. The team from Spencer

10. Vickie Lang, Annette Field and Donald McInnes, The Electrical Life of Louis Wain

Best Original Score

1. Hans Zimmer, Dune

2. Jonny Greenwood, The Power of the Dog

3. Jonny Greenwood, Spencer

4. Nathan Johnson, Nightmare Alley

5. Alexandre Desplat, The French Dispatch
   —

6. Nicholas Britell, Don’t Look Up

7. Carter Burwell, The Tragedy of Macbeth

8. The National, Cyrano

9. Daniel Pemberton, Being the Ricardos

10. Kris Bowers, King Richard

Best Original Song

1. “No Time to Die,” No Time to Die

2. “Colombia, Mi Encanto,” Encanto

3. “Be Alive,” King Richard

4. “Down to Joy,” Belfast

5. “Here I Am (Singing My Way Home),” Respect
   —

6. “Beyond the Shore,” CODA

7. “At the Automat,” The Automat

8. “Every Letter,” Cyrano

9. “Guns Go Bang,” The Harder They Fall

10. “Somehow You Do,” Four Good Days

Best Production Design

1. Patrice Vermette, Richard Roberts and Zsuzsanna Sipos, Dune

2. Adam Stockhausen and Rena DeAngelo, The French Dispatch

3. Tamara Deverell and Shane Vieau, Nightmare Alley

4. Adam Stockhausen and Rena DeAngelo, West Side Story

5. Arthur Max and Letizia Santucci, House of Gucci
   —

6. Jon Hutman and Ellen Brill, Being the Ricardos

7. Grant Major and Amber Richards, The Power of the Dog

8. Guy Hendrix-Dyas and Yesim Zolan, Spencer

9. Stefan Dechant and Nancy Haigh, The Tragedy of Macbeth

10. Jim Clay and Claire Nia Richards, Belfast

Best Sound

1. Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Theo Green, Doug Hemphill and Ron Bartlett, Dune

2. The team from West Side Story

3. Barry O’Sullivan, Dana A. Davis, Stephanie Flack, Matthias Lempert and Lars Ginzel, The Matrix Resurrections

4. Simon Chase, James Mather, Denise Yarde and Niv Adris, Belfast

5. Oliver Tarney, Paul Massey, David Giammarco, William Miller, Daniel Birch and Stéphanie Bucher, The Last Duel
   —

6. The team from A Quiet Place Part II

7. Jared Detsikes, Martin Pinsonnault, Stéphane Bergeron and Alexandra Fehrman, CODA

8. Nathan Robitaille, Jill Purdy, Christian Cooke, Brad Zoern and Greg Chapman, Nightmare Alley

9. The team from No Time to Die

10. The team from Don’t Look Up

Best Visual Effects

1. Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor and Gerd Nefzer, Dune

2. Dan Glass, The Matrix Resurrections

3. The team from Spider-Man: No Way Home

4. The team from Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings

5. The team from Finch
   —

6. The team from Free Guy

7. The team from Nightmare Alley

8. The team from Don’t Look Up

9. The team from No Time to Die

10. The team from Eternals