2021 Oscar Nomination Predictions (September)

Here we go again…

It feels like just yesterday that I was inexplicably making the case for Andra Day in Best Actress and clinging to the hope that, at last, it could be Diane Warren’s year in Best Original Song. (Though, let’s be fair, both may have come reasonably close.)

In years past, I’ve usually by this point released an opening set of Summer Oscar Predictions but, having seen a total of seven feature films thus far this year, let’s just say I haven’t been the most engaged or clamoring to dive into the season. Alas, there of course comes a point where I, Oscar nut, cannot help myself.

So, I have indeed assembled my first set of Oscar predictions, albeit just in the top eight categories for now. And what I love, right off the bat, is the crossover between these and my first set of predictions from the last cycle, which also sported the likes of C’mon C’mon, The Humans, Respect and West Side Story. What a haphazard time it’s been.

At this point in the season, I’m never terribly confident about too many contenders. In Best Picture, for instance, only Belfast and The Power of the Dog strike me as anything close to shoo-ins for nominations - and it seems completely within the realm of possibility that the Jane Campion picture, which isn’t without its detractors, could underperform a bit.

Dune and Nightmare Alley sure look ravishing, destined to dine on the technical categories, but how much will they factor into the top eight? For now, I suspect both do…to an extent. Likewise, we’re looking at big acting contenders like King Richard, Spencer and The Tragedy of Macbeth that may or not may prove formidable elsewhere.

There are a few hopefuls I’m not much sold on. Neither Ridley Scott picture (House of Gucci and The Last Duel) strikes me as poised to make a big splash, though you’ll see the first film scattered here and there in my predictions. Being the Ricardos reeks to me of impending misfire and Mass may be among the year’s best-acted films but it’s stuck with a distributor that’s never proven successful in playing the awards season game.

And there remain a number of question marks around category placement, perhaps most notably with Belfast’s Caitriona Balfe and Jamie Dornan, both of who can make the cut in either field. Macbeth’s Frances McDormand and Ricardos’ Javier Bardem are a couple of the other names who could seemingly go either way.

All that said, here are my hunches for now, ranked from most to least likely to be nominated. I’ll update these babies sometime later in the fall, at which point we’ll surely have some new contenders.

Who knows, perhaps Glenn Close gives a career-best turn in Swan Song. ;)

Best Picture

1. Belfast

2. The Power of the Dog

3. King Richard

4. Nightmare Alley

5. West Side Story

6. The Tragedy of Macbeth

7. Don’t Look Up

8. Licorice Pizza

9. CODA

10. Dune
    —

11. Spencer

12. C’mon C’mon

13. House of Gucci

14. The French Dispatch

15. The Lost Daughter

Best Director

1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

2. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast

3. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley

4. Denis Villeneuve, Dune

5. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
   —

6. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up

7. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story

8. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth

9. Pedro Almodovar, Parallel Mothers

10. Reinaldo Marcus Green, King Richard

Best Actress

1. Kristen Stewart, Spencer

2. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter

3. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

4. Jennifer Hudson, Respect

5. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
   —

6. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci

7. Jennifer Lawrence, Don’t Look Up

8. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos

9. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley

10. Halle Berry, Bruised

Best Actor

1. Will Smith, King Richard

2. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth

3. Joaquin Phoenix, C’mon C’mon

4. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog

5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up
   —

6. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano

7. Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey

8. Andrew Garfield, tick, tick…BOOM!

9. Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley

10. Adam Driver, House of Gucci

Best Supporting Actress

1. Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth

2. Judi Dench, Belfast

3. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog

4. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast

5. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
   —

6. Marlee Matlin, CODA

7. Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up

8. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard

9. Ruth Negga, Passing

10. Ann Dowd, Mass

Best Supporting Actor

1. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza

2. Corey Hawkins, The Tragedy of Macbeth

3. Jonah Hill, Don’t Look Up

4. Jared Leto, House of Gucci

5. Richard Jenkins, The Humans
   —

6. Jamie Dornan, Belfast

7. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast

8. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog

9. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog

10. Troy Kotsur, CODA

Best Original Screenplay

1. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast

2. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza

3. Adam McKay and David Sirota, Don’t Look Up

4. Mike Mills, C’mon C’mon

5. Zach Baylin, King Richard
   —

6. Pedro Almodovar, Parallel Mothers

7. Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola, Hugo Guinness and Jason Schwartzman, The French Dispatch

8. Steven Knight, Spencer

9. Paolo Sorrentino, The Hand of God

10. Aaron Sorkin, Being the Ricardos

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

2. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth

3. Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter

4. Sian Heder, CODA

5. Stephen Karam, The Humans
   —

6. Rebecca Hall, Passing

7. Guillermo del Toro and Kim Morgan, Nightmare Alley

8. Tony Kushner, West Side Story

9. Becky Johnston and Roberto Bentivegna, House of Gucci

10. Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve and Eric Roth, Dune