On the heels of Oscar nominations morning - and with about a month and a half to go before that grand ceremony - here's my final hunch on how next weekend's SAG Awards will go down...
Best Ensemble
- Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
- Get Out
- Lady Bird
- Mudbound
- The Big Sick
It would, despite the strengths of the pictures and performances, be flabbergasting to see Mudbound or especially The Big Sick emerge triumphant here. Instead, this should be a three-way barn burner. Lady Bird, no doubt, has heaps of support in the industry, though I hesitate to predict it when I'm not going with Ronan or Metcalf for the win in their respective categories. Get Out, on the other hand, can totally win without a victory for leading man Kaluuya. I give Three Billboards the edge, as I do have McDormand down for the win, plus the surprise Harrelson nomination seems indicative of high support for the picture among the acting wing.
Best Male Actor
- Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
- Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
- Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
- James Franco, The Disaster Artist
- Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.
Here's the closest thing to a shoo-in on the film side of the SAG Awards. If Oldman could triumph at the Golden Globes, despite publicly lambasting that body, there's scant reason to believe he won't handily prevail here (and later at BAFTA, of course). It's tough to even forecast a runner-up - prior to the sexual abuse allegations, it would have been Globe winner Franco but now Chalamet and Kaluuya probably earn more votes, with Washington still clearly dead last.
Best Female Actor
- Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
- Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
- Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
- Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
- Judi Dench, Victoria & Abdul
Much as I adored Dame Judi, I would concede she hasn't a shot at victory (though keep an eye on her in advance of Oscar nominations morning). Hawkins, given the lack of The Shape of Water in Ensemble, is also not likely and if Robbie couldn't triumph at the Globes, she's probably not prevailing here either. This will be a jump ball between the two Globe winners and it's hardly easy to argue for one over the other. One stat perhaps in Ronan's favor is no performer to date has earned two Best Female Actor SAG Awards - McDormand would mark the very first. I suspect, however, given how universally loved she is in the industry and among her peers (plus how well-liked Three Billboards evidently is within the Guild), McDormand will indeed achieve this feat.
Best Supporting Male Actor
- Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
- Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
- Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
- Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
- Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes
The Carell nomination is a baffling one, given his sitcom-level half of Battle of the Sexes is vastly inferior to Emma Stone's more compelling scenes. He's not a factor here, nor is Jenkins (whose film failed to land in Ensemble) or Harrelson (who just hasn't been much of an awards season player). If not for Harrelson's presence, I suspect I'd be siding with Globe winner Rockwell...but could it be that Harrelson siphons off just enough Three Billboards fans from his co-star to hand Dafoe victory? I suspect it just might happen, though, given The Florida Project's lack of Ensemble nod, I'm hardly confident.
Best Supporting Female Actor
- Allison Janney, I, Tonya
- Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
- Holly Hunter, The Big Sick
- Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
- Hong Chau, Downsizing
Chau doesn't have a prayer and, despite their films earning Ensemble nominations, nor do Blige or Hunter. It's a coin flip between Janney and Metcalf, as it has been all awards season. Both are beloved "actor's actors," stars of the big and small screens and stage. Janney's SAG history is a mixed bag - on one hand, she earned two Drama Actress prizes for The West Wing, which is an impressive feat. On the flip side, despite four Emmy nominations (including two wins for the role), she's never earned a nod for her current work on Mom. By the time the SAG Awards came to fruition, Roseanne, then on its seventh season, was fading from the awards circuit, so there's no Metcalf track record here to speak of. I suspect, given the immense plethora of actors she's worked alongside over the years, Janney has an ever-so-slight edge but it could totally be Metcalf, especially if voters who aren't inclined to award Lady Bird in Ensemble or Lead Actress wish to at least throw it a bone somewhere.
