2016 Critics Choice Awards nominations

Congratulations to this year's Critics Choice Awards nominees!

BEST PICTURE

Arrival

Fences

Hacksaw Ridge

Hell or High Water

La La Land

Lion

Loving

Manchester by the Sea

Moonlight

Sully

BEST ACTOR

Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea

Joel Edgerton – Loving

Andrew Garfield – Hacksaw Ridge

Ryan Gosling – La La Land

Tom Hanks – Sully

Denzel Washington – Fences

BEST ACTRESS

Amy Adams – Arrival

Annette Bening – 20th Century Women

Isabelle Huppert – Elle

Ruth Negga – Loving

Natalie Portman – Jackie

Emma Stone – La La Land

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Mahershala Ali – Moonlight

Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water

Ben Foster – Hell or High Water

Lucas Hedges – Manchester by the Sea

Dev Patel – Lion

Michael Shannon – Nocturnal Animals

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Viola Davis – Fences

Greta Gerwig – 20th Century Women

Naomie Harris – Moonlight

Nicole Kidman – Lion

Janelle Monáe  – Hidden Figures

Michelle Williams – Manchester by the Sea

BEST YOUNG ACTOR/ACTRESS

Lucas Hedges – Manchester by the Sea

Alex R. Hibbert – Moonlight

Lewis MacDougall – A Monster Calls

Madina Nalwanga – Queen of Katwe

Sunny Pawar – Lion

Hailee Steinfeld – The Edge of Seventeen

BEST ACTING ENSEMBLE

20th Century Women

Fences

Hell or High Water

Hidden Figures

Manchester by the Sea

Moonlight

BEST DIRECTOR

Damien Chazelle – La La Land

Mel Gibson – Hacksaw Ridge

Barry Jenkins – Moonlight

Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea

David Mackenzie – Hell or High Water

Denis Villeneuve – Arrival

Denzel Washington – Fences

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Damien Chazelle – La La Land

Barry Jenkins – Moonlight

Yorgos Lanthimos/Efthimis Filippou – The Lobster

Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea

Jeff Nichols – Loving

Taylor Sheridan – Hell or High Water

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Luke Davies – Lion

Tom Ford – Nocturnal Animals

Eric Heisserer – Arrival

Todd Komarnicki – Sully

Allison Schroeder/Theodore Melfi – Hidden Figures

August Wilson – Fences

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Stéphane Fontaine – Jackie

James Laxton – Moonlight

Seamus McGarvey – Nocturnal Animals

Linus Sandgren – La La Land

Bradford Young – Arrival

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Arrival – Patrice Vermette, Paul Hotte/André Valade

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them – Stuart Craig/James Hambidge, Anna Pinnock

Jackie – Jean Rabasse, Véronique Melery

La La Land – David Wasco, Sandy Reynolds-Wasco

Live by Night – Jess Gonchor, Nancy Haigh

BEST EDITING

Tom Cross – La La Land

John Gilbert – Hacksaw Ridge

Blu Murray – Sully

Nat Sanders/Joi McMillon – Moonlight

Joe Walker – Arrival

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Colleen Atwood – Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Consolata Boyle – Florence Foster Jenkins

Madeline Fontaine – Jackie

Joanna Johnston – Allied

Eimer Ni Mhaoldomhnaigh – Love & Friendship

Mary Zophres – La La Land

BEST HAIR & MAKEUP

Doctor Strange

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Hacksaw Ridge

Jackie

Star Trek Beyond

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

A Monster Calls

Arrival

Doctor Strange

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

The Jungle Book

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Finding Dory

Kubo and the Two Strings

Moana

The Red Turtle

Trolls

Zootopia

BEST ACTION MOVIE

Captain America: Civil War

Deadpool

Doctor Strange

Hacksaw Ridge

Jason Bourne

BEST ACTOR IN AN ACTION MOVIE

Benedict Cumberbatch – Doctor Strange

Matt Damon – Jason Bourne

Chris Evans – Captain America: Civil War

Andrew Garfield – Hacksaw Ridge

Ryan Reynolds – Deadpool

BEST ACTRESS IN AN ACTION MOVIE

Gal Gadot – Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice

Scarlett Johansson – Captain America: Civil War

Margot Robbie – Suicide Squad

Tilda Swinton – Doctor Strange

BEST COMEDY

Central Intelligence

Deadpool

Don’t Think Twice

The Edge of Seventeen

Hail, Caesar!

The Nice Guys

BEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY

Ryan Gosling – The Nice Guys

Hugh Grant – Florence Foster Jenkins

Dwayne Johnson – Central Intelligence

Viggo Mortensen – Captain Fantastic

Ryan Reynolds – Deadpool

BEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY

Kate Beckinsale – Love & Friendship

Sally Field – Hello, My Name Is Doris

Kate McKinnon – Ghostbusters

Hailee Steinfeld – The Edge of Seventeen

Meryl Streep – Florence Foster Jenkins

BEST SCI-FI/HORROR MOVIE

10 Cloverfield Lane

Arrival

Doctor Strange

Don’t Breathe

Star Trek Beyond

The Witch

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Elle

The Handmaiden

Julieta

Neruda

The Salesman

Toni Erdmann

BEST SONG

Audition (The Fools Who Dream) – La La Land

Can’t Stop the Feeling – Trolls

City of Stars – La La Land

Drive It Like You Stole It – Sing Street

How Far I’ll Go – Moana

The Rules Don’t Apply – Rules Don’t Apply

BEST SCORE

Nicholas Britell – Moonlight

Jóhann Jóhannsson – Arrival

Justin Hurwitz – La La Land

Micachu – Jackie

Dustin O’Halloran, Hauschka – Lion

2016 Independent Spirit Award nominations

Congratulations to this year's fantastic Independent Spirit Award nominees!

BEST FEATURE

American Honey
Producers: Thomas Benski, Jay Van Hoy, Lars Knudsen, Lucas Ochoa, Pouya Shahbazian, Alice Weinberg

Chronic
Producers: Michel Franco, Gina Kwon, Gabriel Ripstein, Moisés Zonana

Jackie
Producers: Darren Aronofsky, Scott Franklin, Ari Handel, Juan de Dios Larraín, Mickey Liddell

Manchester by the Sea
Producers: Lauren Beck, Matt Damon, Chris Moore, Kimberly Steward,
Kevin J. Walsh

Moonlight
Producers: Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Adele Romanski

BEST FIRST FEATURE

The Childhood of a Leader
Director: Brady Corbet
Producers: Antoine de Clermont-Tonnerre, Chris Coen, Ron Curtis,
Helena Danielsson, Mona Fastvold, István Major

The Fits
Director/Producer: Anna Rose Holmer
Producer: Lisa Kjerulff

Other People
Director: Chris Kelly
Producers: Sam Bisbee, Adam Scott, Naomi Scott

Swiss Army Man
Directors: Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert
Producers: Miranda Bailey, Lawrence Inglee, Lauren Mann, Amanda Marshall, Eyal Rimmon, Jonathan Wang

The Witch
Director: Robert Eggers
Producers: Daniel Bekerman, Jay Van Hoy, Lars Knudsen, Jodi Redmond, Rodrigo Teixeira

BEST DIRECTOR

Andrea Arnold
American Honey

Barry Jenkins
Moonlight

Pablo Larraín
Jackie

Jeff Nichols
Loving

Kelly Reichardt
Certain Women

BEST SCREENPLAY

Barry Jenkins
Story By Tarell Alvin McCraney
Moonlight

Kenneth Lonergan
Manchester by the Sea

Mike Mills
20th Century Women

Ira Sachs & Mauricio Zacharias
Little Men

Taylor Sheridan
Hell or High Water

BEST FIRST SCREENPLAY

Robert Eggers
The Witch

Chris Kelly
Other People

Adam Mansbach
Barry

Stella Meghie
Jean of the Joneses

Craig Shilowich
Christine

BEST FEMALE LEAD

Annette Bening

20th Century Women

Isabelle Huppert

Elle

Sasha Lane

American Honey

Ruth Negga

Loving

Natalie Portman

Jackie

BEST MALE LEAD

Casey Affleck

Manchester by the Sea

David Harewood

Free In Deed

Viggo Mortensen

Captain Fantastic

Jesse Plemons

Other People

Tim Roth

Chronic

BEST SUPPORTING FEMALE

Edwina Findley

Free In Deed

Paulina Garcia

Little Men

Lily Gladstone

Certain Women

Riley Keough

American Honey

Molly Shannon

Other People

BEST SUPPORTING MALE

Ralph Fiennes

A Bigger Splash

Ben Foster

Hell or High Water

Lucas Hedges

Manchester by the Sea

Shia LaBeouf

American Honey

Craig Robinson

Morris from America

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Ava Berkofsky
Free In Deed

Lol Crawley
The Childhood of a Leader

Zach Kuperstein
The Eyes of My Mother

James Laxton
Moonlight

Robbie Ryan
American Honey

BEST FILM EDITING

Matthew Hannam
Swiss Army Man

Jennifer Lame
Manchester by the Sea

Joi McMillon, Nat Sanders
Moonlight

Jake Roberts
Hell or High Water

Sebastián Sepúlveda
Jackie

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

13th
Director/Producer: Ava DuVernay
Producers: Spencer Averick, Howard Barish

Cameraperson
Director/Producer: Kirsten Johnson
Producer: Marilyn Ness

I Am Not Your Negro
Director/Producer: Raoul Peck
Producers: Rémi Grellety, Hérbert Peck

O.J.: Made in America
Director/Producer: Ezra Edelman
Producers: Nina Krstic, Tamara Rosenberg, Caroline Waterlow

Sonita
Director: Rokhsareh Ghaem Maghami
Producer: Gerd Haag

Under the Sun
Director: Vitaly Mansky
Producer: Natalya Manskaya

BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM
Aquarius
(Brazil)
Director: Kleber Mendonça Filho

Chevalier
(Greece)
Director: Athina Tsangari

My Golden Days
(France)
Director: Arnaud Desplechin

Toni Erdmann
(Germany and Romania)
Director: Maren Ade

Under the Shadow
(Iran and U.K.)
Director: Babak Anvari

JOHN CASSAVETES AWARD

Free In Deed
Writer/Director: Jake Mahaffy
Producers: Mike Bowes, Mike S. Ryan, Brent Stiefel

Hunter Gatherer
Writer/Director: Josh Locy
Producers: Michael Covino, April Lamb, Sara Murphy, Isaiah Smallman

Lovesong
Writer/Director: So Yong Kim
Writer/Producer: Bradley Rust Gray
Producers: David Hansen, Alex Lipschultz, Johnny Mac

Nakom
Writer/Director/Producer: TW Pittman
Director/Producer: Kelly Daniela Norris
Writer/Producer: Isaac Adakudugu
Producer: Giovanni Ximénez

Spa Night
Writer/Director: Andrew Ahn
Producers: David Ariniello, Giulia Caruso, Ki Jin Kim, Kelly Thomas

ROBERT ALTMAN AWARD

Moonlight

Director: Barry Jenkins

Casting Director: Yesi Ramirez

Ensemble Cast: Mahershala Ali, Patrick Decile, Naomie Harris, Alex Hibbert, André Holland, Jharrel Jerome, Janelle Monáe, Jaden Piner, Trevante Rhodes, Ashton Sanders

20th ANNUAL PIAGET PRODUCERS AWARD
Lisa Kjerulff
Jordana Mollick
Melody C. Roscher & Craig Shilowich

23rd ANNUAL KIEHL’S SOMEONE TO WATCH AWARD

Andrew Ahn
Director of Spa Night

Claire Carré
Director of Embers

Anna Rose Holmer
Director of The Fits

Ingrid Jungermann
Director of Women Who Kill

22nd TRUER THAN FICTION AWARD

Kristi Jacobson
Director of Solitary

Sara Jordenö
Director of Kiki

Nanfu Wang
Director of Hooligan Sparrow

2016 Contenders in Best Animated Feature

The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences has announced 27 motion pictures have been submitted for consideration in the category of Best Animated Feature. They are:

The Angry Birds Movie
April and the Extraordinary World
Bilal
Finding Dory
Ice Age: Collision Course
Kingsglaive Final Fantasy XV
Kubo and the Two Strings
Kung Fu Panda 3
The Little Prince
Long Way North
Miss Hokusai
Moana
Monkey King: Hero Is Back
Mune
Mustafa & the Magician
My Life as a Zucchini
Phantom Boy
The Red Turtle
Sausage Party
The Secret Life of Pets
Sing
Snowtime!
Storks
Trolls
25 April
Your Name
Zootopia

2016 Oscar Nomination Predictions (November)

Howdy, fellow Oscar junkies!

Since October and my last set of Oscar predictions, the following events have gone down in this wild and awesome ride of an awards season:

• Ang Lee's Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk garnered mixed-to-negative notices from attendees of its New York Film Festival premiere.
   
• Paramount Pictures announced Viola Davis will receive a Best Supporting Actress campaign for her turn in Denzel Washington's Fences.
   
• New trailers dropped for Annette Bening pics 20th Century Women and Rules Don't Apply.
   
• The Academy announced 85 foreign language films and 145 documentary features will compete for consideration in their respective categories.

Please check out below my latest Oscar predix, for the month of November. In parentheses you will find how many slots a contender has moved up or down since my October rankings. In a number of cases (I'm looking at you, Billy Lynn), I have booted a film or performer entirely.

Enjoy and, as always, feel free to comment with your own thoughts as well!

Best Picture

1. La La Land (-)
2. Jackie (-)
3. Arrival (+3)
4. Manchester by the Sea (-1)
5. Silence (+2)
6. Moonlight (+4)
7. Fences (-3)
8. Loving (-)
9. Hidden Figures (-)
   ---
10. Rules Don't Apply (+5)
11. 20th Century Women (+1)
12. Lion (-1)
13. Sully (NEW)
14. Nocturnal Animals (-1)
15. Allied (-1)

DROPPED
Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (-10)

Best Director

1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (-)
2. Denis Villanueve, Arrival (-)
3. Martin Scorsese, Silence (+1)
4. Pablo Larrain, Jackie (+2)
5. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (+2)
   ---
6. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (+4)
7. Denzel Washington, Fences (-2)
8. Warren Beatty, Rules Don't Apply (+1)
9. Clint Eastwood, Sully (NEW)
10. Jeff Nichols, Loving (-2)

DROPPED
Ang Lee, Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (-7)

Best Lead Actor

1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (-)
2. Denzel Washington, Fences (-)
3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (-)
4. Joel Edgerton, Loving (-)
5. Andrew Garfield, Silence (+1)
   ---
6. Warren Beatty, Rules Don't Apply (NEW)
7. Tom Hanks, Sully (-)
8. Michael Keaton, The Founder (+1)
9. Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals (-1)
10. Robert De Niro, The Comedian (NEW)

DROPPED:
Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (-5)
Dev Patel, Lion (-1)

Best Lead Actress

1. Emma Stone, La La Land (-)
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (-)
3. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (+1)
4. Amy Adams, Arrival (+3)
5. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (-)
   ---
6. Ruth Negga, Loving (-)
7. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (+1)
8. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (+1)
9. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (+1)
10. Kate Beckinsale, Love & Friendship (NEW)

DROPPED
Viola Davis, Fences (-7)

Best Supporting Actor

1. Liam Neeson, Silence (-)
2. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (+2)
3. Peter Sarsgaard, Jackie (-)
4. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (-2)
5. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (+1)
   ---
6. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (-1)
7. Adam Driver, Silence (-)
8. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (NEW)
9. Dev Patel, Lion (NEW)
10. Stephen Henderson, Fences (-1)

DROPPED
Steve Martin, Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (-3)
Mykelti Williamson, Fences (-1)

Best Supporting Actress

1. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (-)
2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (-)
3. Viola Davis, Fences (NEW)
4. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (-1)
5. Nicole Kidman, Lion (-)
   ---
6. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (-)
7. Lupita Nyong'o, Queen of Katwe (-)
8. Annette Bening, Rules Don't Apply (-)
9. Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls (-)
10. Molly Shannon, Other People (-)

DROPPED
Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (-6)

Best Original Screenplay

1. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (-)
2. Noah Oppenheim, Jackie (-)
3. Barry Jenkins and Tarell McCraney, Moonlight (+1)
4. Jeff Nichols, Loving (-1)
5. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (-)
   ---
6. Warren Beatty, Rules Don't Apply (+3)
7. Mike Mills, 20th Century Women (-1)
8. Jared Bush, Byron Howard, Phil Johnston, Jennifer Lee, Rich Moore, Jim Reardon and Josie Trinidad, Zootopia (-1)
9. Ron Clements and John Musker, Moana (-1)
10. Asghar Farhadi, The Salesman (-)

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. August Wilson, Fences (-)
2. Eric Heisserer, Arrival (+5)
3. Jay Cocks, Silence (-)
4. Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals (-)
5. Allison Schroeder, Hidden Figures (-)
   ---
6. Luke Davies, Lion (-)
7. Ben Affleck, Live by Night (+1)
8. Whit Stillman, Love & Friendship (+1)
9. David Birke, Elle (+1)
10. Todd Komarnicki, Sully (NEW)

DROPPED
Jean-Christophe Castelli, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (-9)

Best Animated Feature

1. Zootopia (-)
2. Moana (-)
3. Sing (-)
4. The Red Turtle (-)
5. Finding Dory (-)
   ---
6. Kubo and the Two Strings (-)
7. April and the Extraordinary World (-)
8. Miss Hokusai (-)
9. Sausage Party (-)
10. The Secret Life of Pets (-)

Best Cinematography

1. Linus Sandgren, La La Land (-)
2. Bradford Young, Arrival (+1)
3. Stephanie Fontaine, Jackie (+1)
4. Rodrigo Prieto, Silence (+1)
5. Seamus McGarvey, Nocturnal Animals (+1)
   ---
6. Bill Pope, The Jungle Book (+1)
7. Robert Richardson, Live by Night (+1)
8. James Laxton, Moonlight (+1)
9. Caleb Deschanel, Rules Don't Apply (NEW)
10. Charlotte Bruus Christiansen, Fences (-)

DROPPED
John Toll, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (-9)

Best Costume Design

1. Mary Zophres, La La Land (-)
2. Madeline Fontaine, Jackie (-)
3. Sandy Powell, Silence (-)
4. Albert Wolsky, Rules Don't Apply (-)
5. Eimer Ni Mhaoldomhnaigh, Love & Friendship (-)
   ---
6. Consolata Boyle, Florence Foster Jenkins (-)
7. Colleen Atwood, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (+2)
8. Sharen Davis, Fences (-)
9. Jacqueline West, Live by Night (+1)
10. Joanna Johnston, Allied (-3)

Best Film Editing

1. Tom Cross, La La Land (-)
2. Thelma Schoonmaker, Silence (+1)
3. Joe Walker, Arrival (+3)
4. Sebastián Sepúlveda, Jackie (-2)
5. Joi McMillon and Nat Sanders, Moonlight (+3)
   ---
6. Joan Sobel, Nocturnal Animals (+1)
7. Jennifer Lame, Manchester by the Sea (+2)
8. Hughes Winborne, Fences (-2)
9. Blu Murray, Sully (NEW)
10. Alexandre de Francheschi, Lion (NEW)

DROPPED
Tim Squyre, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (-7)
Jeremiah O’Driscoll, Allied (-1)

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

1. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (-)
2. Florence Foster Jenkins (-)
3. Rules Don't Apply (-)
   ---
4. Jackie (+1)
5. Hail, Caesar! (+1)
6. Silence (NEW)
7. Love & Friendship (-3)
8. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (-1)
9. Star Trek: Beyond (+1)
10. Live by Night (-2)

DROPPED
Hidden Figures (-2)

Best Original Score

1. Johann Johansson, Arrival (+1)
2. Howard Shore, Silence (+1)
3. Mica Levi, Jackie (+1)
4. Opetaia Foa’i, Mark Mancina and Lin-Manuel Miranda, Moana (-3)
5. Michael Giacchino, Zootopia (+1)
   ---
6. Justin Hurwitz, La La Land (+1)
7. Michael Giacchino, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (+1)
8. Alexandre Desplat, Florence Foster Jenkins (+2)
9. John Williams, The BFG (NEW)
10. Thomas Newman, Finding Dory (-1)

DROPPED
Jeff and Mychael Danna, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (-6)

Best Original Song

1. "City of Stars," La La Land (-)
2. "Audition," La La Land (+1)
3. "We Know the Way," Moana (-1)
4. "How Far I'll Go," Moana (-)
5. "Victory," Hidden Figures (-)
   ---
6. "Go Now," Sing Street (-)
7. "A Letter to the Free," 13th (-)
8. "The Great Beyond, Sausage Party (-)
9. "Can't Stop the Feeling," Trolls (-)
10. "Rules Don't Apply," Rules Don't Apply (NEW)

DROPPED
"Dancing in the Shadows," Po (-1)

Best Production Design

1. David Wasco, La La Land (-)
2. Dante Ferretti, Silence (-)
3. Jean Rabasse, Jackie (-)
4. Jeannine Oppewall, Rules Don't Apply (-)
5. Stuart Craig, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (-)
   ---
6. Anna Rackard, Love & Friendship (+2)
7. Jess Gonchor, Live by Night (+2)
8. Patrice Vermette, Arrival (NEW)
9. Gary Freeman, Allied (-3)
10. David Gropman, Fences (-3)

DROPPED
Mark Friedberg, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (-2)

Best Sound Editing

1. La La Land (-)
2. Arrival (-)
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (-)
4. Silence (+1)
5. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (+2)
   ---
6. Captain America: Civil War (+4)
7. Passengers (+2)
8. Sully (NEW)
9. Hacksaw Ridge (NEW)
10. Moana (-4)

DROPPED
Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (-7)
Allied (-3)

Best Sound Mixing

1. La La Land (-)
2. Arrival (-)
3. Silence (+1)
4. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (+2)
5. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (+2)
   ---
6. Moana (-1)
7. Zootopia (+3)
8. Sully (NEW)
9. Captain America: Civil War (NEW)
10. Passengers (-1)

DROPPED
Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (-8)
Allied (-3)

Best Visual Effects

1. Arrival (-)
2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (-)
3. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (+2)
4. Passengers (-1)
5. The Jungle Book (+1)
   ---
6. Captain America: Civil War (+1)
7. Doctor Strange (NEW)
8. Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (-3)
9. A Monster Calls (-1)
10. Star Trek: Beyond (-1)

DROPPED
Deadpool (-1)

Best Documentary Feature

1. 13th (-)
2. Gleason (-)
3. Lo and Behold, Reveries of the Connected World (+7)
4. Equal Means Equal (-)
5. The Eagle Huntress (NEW)
   ---
6. Fire at Sea (+1)
7. Miss Sharon Jones (+1)
8. By Sidney Lumet (+1)
9. The Beatles: Eight Days a Week - The Touring Years (NEW)
10. Newtown (-5)

DROPPED
The Seasons in Quincy: Four Portraits of John Berger (-8)
Three Days of Terror: The Charlie Hebdo Attacks (-5)

Best Foreign Language Film

1. The Salesman (Iran) (-)
2. Toni Erdmann (Germany) (NEW)
3. Death in Sarajevo (Bosnia and Herzegovina) (-1)
4. Elle (France) (-1)
5. Sand Storm (Israel) (-1)
   ---
6. Ma'Rosa (Phillippines) (-1)
7. Julieta (Spain) (-1)
8. From Afar (Venezuela) (-1)
9. The Happiest Day in the Life of Olli Mäki (Finland) (-1)
10. Barakah Meets Barakah (Saudi Arabia) (-1)

DROPPED
Train Driver's Diary (Serbia) (-1)

2016 Oscar Nomination Predictions (October)

Over the past month, since my last/first set of Oscar predictions, the following events have gone down in this dizzying roller coaster of an awards season:

• Trailers for three Oscar contenders, all playing in the category of Best Lead Actress - Fences, Jackie and 20th Century Women - were (at last!) released.
   
• Two pictures - Martin Scorsese's Silence and Ben Affleck's Live By Night - were given late December release dates, making them eligible for Oscar consideration this year.
   
• Nate Parker's polarizing The Birth of a Nation, made all the more controversial on the heels of coverage surrounding Parker's past college rape trial, landed with a whimper at the box office, debuting in sixth place with about $7 million in domestic receipts. Fox Searchlight acquired the picture for more than $17 million.
   
• The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences announced 85 countries have officially submitted films for consideration in Best Foreign Language Film.
   
• In category placement news, Warren Beatty will be campaigned in Lead Actor for his upcoming Rules Don't Apply. To date, most had presumed, given the ensemble-y nature of the picture, Beatty would opt for a Supporting campaign.

Odds are, I'm overlooking something of significance - and no, I do not consider Patriots Day, which had its teaser recently drop, an Oscar contender at this point - but those are a few biggies for sure.

Please see below my latest Oscar predictions, for the month of October. In parentheses you will find how many slots a contender has moved up or down since my September rankings. In some cases, I have dropped a film or performer entirely.

Enjoy and, as always, feel free to comment with your own thoughts as well!

Best Picture

1. La La Land (-)
2. Jackie (+3)
3. Manchester by the Sea (-1)
4. Fences (-1)
5. Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (-1)
6. Arrival (+2)
7. Silence (-)
8. Loving (-2)
9. Hidden Figures (-)
   ---
10. Moonlight (+5)
11. Lion (-)
12. 20th Century Women (NEW)
13. Nocturnal Animals (-1)
14. Allied (-4)
15. Rules Don't Apply (-2)

DROPPED
The Birth of a Nation (-2)

Best Director

1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (-)
2. Denis Villanueve, Arrival (+3)
3. Ang Lee, Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (-1)
4. Martin Scorsese, Silence (-)
5. Denzel Washington, Fences (-2)
   ---
6. Pablo Larrain, Jackie (+4)
7. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (-1)
8. Jeff Nichols, Loving (-1)
9. Warren Beatty, Rules Don't Apply (-)
10. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (NEW)

DROPPED
Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals (-2)

Best Lead Actor

1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (-)
2. Denzel Washington, Fences (-)
3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (-)
4. Joel Edgerton, Loving (-)
5. Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (-)
   ---
6. Andrew Garfield, Silence (+3)
7. Tom Hanks, Sully (-1)
8. Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals (-1)
9. Michael Keaton, The Founder (-1)
10. Dev Patel, Lion (-)

Best Lead Actress

1. Emma Stone, La La Land (-)
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (-)
3. Viola Davis, Fences (-)
4. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (+4)
5. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (-1)
   ---
6. Ruth Negga, Loving (-1)
7. Amy Adams, Arrival (-1)
8. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (-1)
9. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (-)
10. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (-)

Best Supporting Actor

1. Liam Neeson, Silence (+4)
2. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (-1)
3. Peter Sarsgaard, Jackie (+4)
4. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (-2)
5. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (-1)
   ---
6. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (-)
7. Adam Driver, Silence (NEW)
8. Steve Martin, Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (-)
9. Stephen Henderson, Fences (-)
10. Mykelti Williamson, Fences (-)

DROPPED
Warren Beatty, Rules Don't Apply (-8)

Best Supporting Actress

1. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (-)
2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (-)
3. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (+6)
4. Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (-1)
5. Nicole Kidman, Lion (-1)
   ---
6. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (-1)
7. Lupita Nyong'o, Queen of Katwe (NEW)
8. Annette Bening, Rules Don't Apply (-)
9. Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls (-2)
10. Molly Shannon, Other People (NEW)

DROPPED
Elle Fanning, 20th Century Women (-2)
Laura Linney, Nocturnal Animals (-1)

Best Original Screenplay

1. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (-)
2. Noah Oppenheim, Jackie (+2)
3. Jeff Nichols, Loving (-1)
4. Barry Jenkins and Tarell McCraney, Moonlight (+3)
5. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (-2)
   ---
6. Mike Mills, 20th Century Women (NEW)
7. Jared Bush, Byron Howard, Phil Johnston, Jennifer Lee, Rich Moore, Jim Reardon and Josie Trinidad, Zootopia (-2)
8. Ron Clements and John Musker, Moana (-2)
9. Warren Beatty, Rules Don't Apply (-1)
10. Asghar Farhadi, The Salesman (-)

DROPPED
Steven Knight, Allied (-2)

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. August Wilson, Fences (-)
2. Jean-Christophe Castelli, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (-)
3. Jay Cocks, Silence (-)
4. Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals (-)
5. Allison Schroeder, Hidden Figures (-)
   ---
6. Luke Davies, Lion (-)
7. Eric Heisserer, Arrival (-)
8. Ben Affleck, Live by Night (NEW)
9. Whit Stillman, Love & Friendship (-1)
10. David Birke, Elle (-1)

DROPPED
Justin Marks, The Jungle Book (-1)

Best Animated Feature

1. Zootopia (-)
2. Moana (-)
3. Sing (-)
4. The Red Turtle (-)
5. Finding Dory (-)
   ---
6. Kubo and the Two Strings (-)
7. April and the Extraordinary World (+2)
8. Miss Hokusai (+2)
9. Sausage Party (-2)
10. The Secret Life of Pets (-2)

Best Cinematography

1. Linus Sandgren, La La Land (-)
2. John Toll, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (-)
3. Bradford Young, Arrival (-)
4. Stephanie Fontaine, Jackie (NEW)
5. Rodrigo Prieto, Silence (-1)
   ---
6. Seamus McGarvey, Nocturnal Animals (-1)
7. Bill Pope, The Jungle Book (-1)
8. Robert Richardson, Live by Night (NEW)
9. James Laxton, Moonlight (NEW)
10. Charlotte Bruus Christiansen, Fences (-3)

DROPPED
Elliot Davis, The Birth of a Nation (-3)
Greig Fraser, Lion (-2)
Don Burgess, Allied (-1)

Best Costume Design

1. Mary Zophres, La La Land (-)
2. Madeline Fontaine, Jackie (+5)
3. Sandy Powell, Silence (+4)
4. Albert Wolsky, Rules Don't Apply (-1)
5. Eimer Ni Mhaoldomhnaigh, Love & Friendship (-1)
   ---
6. Consolata Boyle, Florence Foster Jenkins (-1)
7. Joanna Johnston, Allied (-5)
8. Sharen Davis, Fences (-1)
9. Colleen Atwood, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (+1)
10. Jacqueline West, Live by Night (NEW)

DROPPED
Francine Jamison-Tanchuck, The Birth of a Nation (-2)

Best Film Editing

1. Tom Cross, La La Land (-)
2. Sebastián Sepúlveda, Jackie (NEW)
3. Thelma Schoonmaker, Silence (-1)
4. Tim Squyre, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (-1)
5. Joe Walker, Arrival (-1)
   ---
6. Hughes Winborne, Fences (-1)
7. Joan Sobel, Nocturnal Animals (-1)
8. Joi McMillon and Nat Sanders, Moonlight (+1)
9. Jennifer Lame, Manchester by the Sea (-2)
10. Jeremiah O’Driscoll, Allied (-)

DROPPED
Steven Rosenblum, The Birth of a Nation (-3)

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

1. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (+2)
2. Florence Foster Jenkins (-1)
3. Rules Don't Apply (-1)
   ---
4. Love & Friendship (-)
5. Jackie (+3)
6. Hail, Caesar! (+3)
7. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (+3)
8. Live by Night (NEW)
9. Hidden Figures (-4)
10. Star Trek: Beyond (-3)

DROPPED
La La Land (-5)

Best Original Score

1. Opetaia Foa’i, Mark Mancina and Lin-Manuel Miranda, Moana (-)
2. Johann Johansson, Arrival (+2)
3. Howard Shore, Silence (+3)
4. Mica Levi, Jackie (+3)
5. Jeff and Mychael Danna, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (-1)
   ---
6. Michael Giacchino, Zootopia (-4)
7. Justin Hurwitz, La La Land (-2)
8. Michael Giacchino, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (NEW)
9. Thomas Newman, Finding Dory (-1)
10. Alexandre Desplat, Florence Foster Jenkins (-1)

DROPPED
Henry Jackman, The Birth of a Nation (-1)

Best Original Song

1. "City of Stars," La La Land (-)
2. "We Know the Way," Moana (-)
3. "Audition," La La Land (-)
4. "How Far I'll Go," Moana (-)
5. "Victory," Hidden Figures (+1)
   ---
6. "Go Now," Sing Street (-1)
7. "A Letter to the Free," 13th (NEW)
8. "The Great Beyond, Sausage Party (-1)
9. "Can't Stop the Feeling," Trolls (-1)
10. "Dancing in the Shadows," Po (NEW)

DROPPED
"Try Everything," Zootopia (-2)
"Drive It Like You Stole It," Sing Street (-1)

Best Production Design

1. David Wasco, La La Land (-)
2. Dante Ferretti, Silence (+1)
3. Jean Rabasse, Jackie (+6)
4. Jeannine Oppewall, Rules Don't Apply (-2)
5. Stuart Craig, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (+1)
   ---
6. Gary Freeman, Allied (-2)
7. David Gropman, Fences (-2)
8. Anna Rackard, Love & Friendship (-1)
9. Mark Friedberg, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (+1)
10. Jess Gonchor, Live by Night (NEW)

DROPPED
Geoffrey Kirkland, The Birth of a Nation (-3)

Best Sound Editing

1. La La Land (-)
2. Arrival (-)
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (+1)
4. Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (-1)
5. Silence (-)
   ---
6. Moana (-)
7. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (NEW)
8. Allied (-1)
9. Passengers (-1)
10. Captain America: Civil War (-)

DROPPED
Deepwater Horizon (-2)

Best Sound Mixing

1. La La Land (-)
2. Arrival (-)
3. Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (-)
4. Silence (-)
5. Moana (-)
   ---
6. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (+1)
7. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (NEW)
8. Allied (-2)
9. Passengers (-1)
10. Zootopia (-1)

DROPPED
Deepwater Horizon (-1)

Best Visual Effects

1. Arrival (-)
2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (-)
3. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (+2)
4. Passengers (-1)
5. Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (-1)
   ---
6. The Jungle Book (-)
7. Captain America: Civil War (-)
8. A Monster Calls (-)
9. Star Trek: Beyond (-)
10. Deadpool (-)

Best Documentary Feature

1. 13th (-)
2. Gleason (-)
3. The Seasons in Quincy: Four Portraits of John Berger (-)
4. Equal Means Equal (-)
5. Newtown (-)
   ---
6. Three Days of Terror: The Charlie Hebdo Attacks (-)
7. Fire at Sea (-)
8. Miss Sharon Jones (-)
9. By Sidney Lumet (-)
10. Lo and Behold, Reveries of the Connected World (-)

Best Foreign Language Film

1. The Salesman (Iran) (-)
2. Death in Sarajevo (Bosnia and Herzegovina) (-)
3. Elle (France) (-)
4. Sand Storm (Israel) (-)
5. Ma'Rosa (Phillippines) (-)
   ---
6. Julieta (Spain) (+1)
7. From Afar (Venezuela) (+1)
8. The Happiest Day in the Life of Olli Mäki (Finland) (+1)
9. Barakah Meets Barakah (Saudi Arabia) (+1)
10. Train Driver's Diary (Serbia) (NEW)

DROPPED
United States of Love (Poland) (-5)