Congratulations to Michele Duspiva, winner of the 2nd Annual Awards Connection Oscar Prediction Contest! Kudos for not only acing all of the marquee races (sans the Best Picture shocker) but also having the brilliant hunch to go with Hacksaw Ridge in Sound Mixing. Hope you enjoy your Fandango gift card!
Thank you again to all 68 folks who participated this year!
Congratulations to all of this year's fantastic Oscar winners!
BEST PICTURE
Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
BEST DIRECTOR
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
BEST ACTOR
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences
BEST ACTRESS
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel, Lion
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Hell or High Water
La La Land
The Lobster
Manchester by the Sea
20th Century Women
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Arrival
Fences
Hidden Figures
Lion
Moonlight
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Arrival
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Silence
BEST FILM EDITING
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Moonlight
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Deepwater Horizon
Doctor Strange
The Jungle Book
Kubo and the Two Strings
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Arrival
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Hail, Caesar!
La La Land
Passengers
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Allied
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins
Jackie
La La Land
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
A Man Called Ove
Star Trek Beyond
Suicide Squad
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Jackie
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Passengers
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Audition (The Fools Who Dream),” La La Land
“Can’t Stop the Feeling,” Trolls
“City of Stars,” La La Land
“The Empty Chair,” Jim: The James Foley Story
“How Far I’ll Go,” Moana
BEST SOUND EDITING
Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Sully
BEST SOUND MIXING
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
The Red Turtle
Zootopia
BEST DOCUMENTARY
Fire at Sea
I Am Not Your Negro
Life, Animated
O.J.: Made in America
13th
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Land of Mine
A Man Called Ove
The Salesman
Tanna
Toni Erdmann
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
Extremis
4.1 Miles
Joe's Violin
Watani: My Homeland
The White Helmets
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
Ennemis Entreniers
La Femme et le TGV
Silent Nights
Sing
Timecode
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Blind Vaysha
Borrowed Time
Pear Cider and Cigarettes
Pearl
Piper
At last, here we go!
It legit feels like just yesterday that I was predicting the likes of Allied, Billy Lynn's Last Halftime Walk and Rules Don't Apply for Oscar nominations. Now, here we are, with that trio of bombs long out of the picture and La La Land poised to steamroll Oscar night. The question remains, however - even if the Damien Chazelle film is a virtual shoo-in to claim the Best Picture prize, just how many wins will this thing really rack up? Can it realistically break the wins record with a dozen victories? I'm skeptical but also not convinced it's not plausible.
There are a bunch of categories I'm having a tough time projecting: among them, Lead Actor (an exciting barn burner between Affleck and Washington); Supporting Actor (SAG winner Ali vs. BAFTA winner Patel); Original Screenplay (has Manchester's momentum so faded that it can lose here?); Adapted Screenplay (don't presume Moonlight's a shoo-in...anything but Fences can win); Cinematography (Lion eying an upset); Visual Effects (five-way jump ball); and Costume Design (Jackie's consolation prize?). Upsets also seem ripe to me in Documentary Feature and all of the shorts categories. And yes, at this point, I do see Huppert as having a better shot at defeating Stone than Portman. (Not that it much matters, since I think of Stone as a pretty hefty front-runner.)
There are plenty of scenarios that can go down here, including a La La Land rout that leaves most of the Best Picture nominees trophy-less. Likewise, there's a chance, modest it as may be, that La La Land's support is overstated and it "only" goes home with half a dozen or even a tad fewer Oscars. (My final hunch is eight prizes.) I suspect we're in for one hell of an Oscar night, with at least a couple of true jaw-droppers.
With that said, here's what my gut is telling me...
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Lead Actor
Best Lead Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Original Screenplay
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Cinematography
Best Film Editing
Best Visual Effects
Best Production Design
Best Costume Design
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Best Original Score
Best Original Song
Best Sound Editing
Best Sound Mixing
Best Animated Feature
Best Documentary Feature
Best Foreign Language Film
Best Documentary Short Subject
Best Live Action Short
Best Animated Short
Howdy, awards season junkies!
It's time for the 2nd Annual Awards Connection Oscar Predictions Contest.
The rules are easy and breezy. First, if you somehow haven't already, follow me @AwardsConnect on Twitter. Then, simply e-mail your Oscar predictions in all 24 categories (yes, including the likes of Best Sound Editing and Best Documentary Short Subject) to me at theawardsconnection@gmail.com, and include in the e-mail your Twitter handle (if you have one), as I'll be announcing the contest winner via Twitter.
Whoever gets the most correct predictions will receive a $25 Fandango gift card via e-mail. Last year, it was Matthew Stewart who emerged triumphant.
In the event of a tie, I have the following tie-breaker question: How many Oscars will La La Land, Manchester by the Sea and Moonlight win COMBINED? Whoever has the correct answer or comes closest to it will triumph. (Ex: If you believe La La Land will win 7 Oscars, Manchester by the Sea 3 Oscars and Moonlight 2 Oscars, your answer should be 12 Oscars.) Include your answer in the e-mail.
The deadline for prediction submissions is Oscar Sunday, February 26th at 6pm eastern time. The contest winner will be announced later in the week on Twitter and also notified via e-mail.
Questions should be directed to theawardsconnection@gmail.com, or of course feel free to message me on Twitter.
Happy predicting!
For your copy-and-pasting convenience, here again are this year's nominees:
BEST PICTURE
Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
BEST DIRECTOR
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
BEST ACTOR
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences
BEST ACTRESS
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel, Lion
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Hell or High Water
La La Land
The Lobster
Manchester by the Sea
20th Century Women
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Arrival
Fences
Hidden Figures
Lion
Moonlight
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Arrival
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Silence
BEST FILM EDITING
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Moonlight
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Deepwater Horizon
Doctor Strange
The Jungle Book
Kubo and the Two Strings
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Arrival
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Hail, Caesar!
La La Land
Passengers
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Allied
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins
Jackie
La La Land
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
A Man Called Ove
Star Trek Beyond
Suicide Squad
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Jackie
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Passengers
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Audition (The Fools Who Dream),” La La Land
“Can’t Stop the Feeling,” Trolls
“City of Stars,” La La Land
“The Empty Chair,” Jim: The James Foley Story
“How Far I’ll Go,” Moana
BEST SOUND EDITING
Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Sully
BEST SOUND MIXING
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
The Red Turtle
Zootopia
BEST DOCUMENTARY
Fire at Sea
I Am Not Your Negro
Life, Animated
O.J.: Made in America
13th
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Land of Mine
A Man Called Ove
The Salesman
Tanna
Toni Erdmann
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
Extremis
4.1 Miles
Joe's Violin
Watani: My Homeland
The White Helmets
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
Ennemis Entreniers
La Femme et le TGV
Silent Nights
Sing
Timecode
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Blind Vaysha
Borrowed Time
Pear Cider and Cigarettes
Pearl
Piper
Congratulations to all of this year's nominees!
BEST PICTURE
Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
BEST DIRECTOR
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
BEST ACTOR
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences
BEST ACTRESS
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel, Lion
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Hell or High Water
La La Land
The Lobster
Manchester by the Sea
20th Century Women
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Arrival
Fences
Hidden Figures
Lion
Moonlight
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Arrival
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Silence
BEST FILM EDITING
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Moonlight
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Deepwater Horizon
Doctor Strange
The Jungle Book
Kubo and the Two Strings
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Arrival
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Hail, Caesar!
La La Land
Passengers
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Allied
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins
Jackie
La La Land
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
A Man Called Ove
Star Trek Beyond
Suicide Squad
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Jackie
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Passengers
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Audition (The Fools Who Dream),” La La Land
“Can’t Stop the Feeling,” Trolls
“City of Stars,” La La Land
“The Empty Chair,” Jim: The James Foley Story
“How Far I’ll Go,” Moana
BEST SOUND EDITING
Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Sully
BEST SOUND MIXING
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
The Red Turtle
Zootopia
BEST DOCUMENTARY
Fire at Sea
I Am Not Your Negro
Life, Animated
O.J.: Made in America
13th
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Land of Mine
A Man Called Ove
The Salesman
Tanna
Toni Erdmann
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
Extremis
4.1 Miles
Joe's Violin
Watani: My Homeland
The White Helmets
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
Ennemis Entreniers
La Femme et le TGV
Silent Nights
Sing
Timecode
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Blind Vaysha
Borrowed Time
Pear Cider and Cigarettes
Pearl
Piper