FINAL 2016 Oscar Winner Predictions

At last, here we go!

It legit feels like just yesterday that I was predicting the likes of Allied, Billy Lynn's Last Halftime Walk and Rules Don't Apply for Oscar nominations. Now, here we are, with that trio of bombs long out of the picture and La La Land poised to steamroll Oscar night. The question remains, however - even if the Damien Chazelle film is a virtual shoo-in to claim the Best Picture prize, just how many wins will this thing really rack up? Can it realistically break the wins record with a dozen victories? I'm skeptical but also not convinced it's not plausible.

There are a bunch of categories I'm having a tough time projecting: among them, Lead Actor (an exciting barn burner between Affleck and Washington); Supporting Actor (SAG winner Ali vs. BAFTA winner Patel); Original Screenplay (has Manchester's momentum so faded that it can lose here?); Adapted Screenplay (don't presume Moonlight's a shoo-in...anything but Fences can win); Cinematography (Lion eying an upset); Visual Effects (five-way jump ball); and Costume Design (Jackie's consolation prize?). Upsets also seem ripe to me in Documentary Feature and all of the shorts categories. And yes, at this point, I do see Huppert as having a better shot at defeating Stone than Portman. (Not that it much matters, since I think of Stone as a pretty hefty front-runner.)

There are plenty of scenarios that can go down here, including a La La Land rout that leaves most of the Best Picture nominees trophy-less. Likewise, there's a chance, modest it as may be, that La La Land's support is overstated and it "only" goes home with half a dozen or even a tad fewer Oscars. (My final hunch is eight prizes.) I suspect we're in for one hell of an Oscar night, with at least a couple of true jaw-droppers.

With that said, here's what my gut is telling me...

Best Picture

1. La La Land
2. Hidden Figures
3. Lion
4. Moonlight
5. Manchester by the Sea
6. Hacksaw Ridge
7. Fences
8. Arrival
9. Hell or High Water

Best Director

1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land
2. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
3. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
4. Denis Villenueve, Arrival
5. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea

Best Lead Actor

1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
2. Denzel Washington, Fences
3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land
4. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
5. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic

Best Lead Actress

1. Emma Stone, La La Land
2. Isabelle Huppert, Elle
3. Natalie Portman, Jackie
4. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
5. Ruth Negga, Loving

Best Supporting Actor

1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
2. Dev Patel, Lion
3. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
4. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
5. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea

Best Supporting Actress

1. Viola Davis, Fences
2. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
3. Nicole Kidman, Lion
4. Naomie Harris, Moonlight
5. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures

Best Original Screenplay

1. Manchester by the Sea
2. La La Land
3. Hell or High Water
4. 20th Century Women
5. The Lobster

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Moonlight
2. Lion
3. Arrival
4. Hidden Figures
5. Fences

Best Cinematography

1. La La Land
2. Lion
3. Moonlight
4. Arrival
5. Silence

Best Film Editing

1. La La Land
2. Hacksaw Ridge
3. Moonlight
4. Hell or High Water
5. Arrival

Best Visual Effects

1. The Jungle Book
2. Kubo and the Two Strings
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
4. Deepwater Horizon
5. Doctor Strange

Best Production Design

1. La La Land
2. Arrival
3. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
4. Hail, Caesar!
5. Passengers

Best Costume Design

1. Jackie
2. La La Land
3. Florence Foster Jenkins
4. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
5. Allied

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Star Trek: Beyond
2. A Man Called Ove
3. Suicide Squad

Best Original Score

1. La La Land
2. Lion
3. Jackie
4. Moonlight
5. Passengers

Best Original Song

1. "How Far I'll Go," Moana
2. "City of Stars," La La Land
3. "Audition (The Fools Who Dream)," La La Land
4. "The Empty Chair," Jim: The James Foley Story
5. "Can't Stop the Feeling," Trolls

Best Sound Editing

1. Hacksaw Ridge
2. Arrival
3. La La Land
4. Deepwater Horizon
5. Sully

Best Sound Mixing

1. La La Land
2. Hacksaw Ridge
3. Arrival
4. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
5. 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi

Best Animated Feature

1. Zootopia
2. Kubo and the Two Strings
3. Moana
4. My Life as a Zucchini
5. The Red Turtle

Best Documentary Feature

1. Fire at Sea
2. 13th
3. O.J.: Made in America
4. Life, Animated
5. I Am Not Your Negro

Best Foreign Language Film

1. The Salesman
2. Toni Erdmann
3. A Man Called Ove
4. Tanna
5. Land of Mine

Best Documentary Short Subject

1. Joe's Violin
2. Watani: My Homeland
3. 4.1 Miles
4. The White Helmets
5. Extremis

Best Live Action Short

1. Silent Nights
2. La Femme et le TGV
3. Timecode
4. Ennemis Entreniers
5. Sing

Best Animated Short

1. Pear Cider and Cigarettes
2. Pearl
3. Piper
4. Blind Vaysha
5. Borrowed Time