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Psycho (1960, Hitchcock) was the recipient of four Oscar nominations - but not in Best Picture.

Psycho (1960, Hitchcock) was the recipient of four Oscar nominations - but not in Best Picture.

HORROR at the Oscars! Chapter II (1960-1979)

October 10, 2016 by Andrew Carden in Oscar Flashback

Alfred Hitchcock's inimitable Psycho was met to both enormous critical acclaim and audience interest upon its release in 1960. The picture, which was the second-highest grossing film of the year, just behind Stanley Kubrick's Spartacus, would go to top the American Film Institute's list of "100 Years...100 Thrills," released in 2001.

Alas, the film, for all of its success, was greeted to a somewhat cool reception by the Academy. Psycho did muster four nominations - in Best Director (Hitchcock's fifth and final Oscar nomination), Best Supporting Actress (the unforgettable Janet Leigh), Best Art Direction and Best Cinematography. Leigh, who won the Golden Globe, was defeated by Shirley Jones' fine turn in Elmer Gantry. It failed to win in any of the other three categories to boot.

Notably snubbed was of course Anthony Perkins, flat-out brilliant as Norman Bates. There was other notable horror work overlooked here too - Georges Franju's chilling Eyes Without a Face would've been richly deserving of recognition in Best Foreign Language Film. Also, Michael Powell's inventive and unsettling Peeping Tom, while not whole-heartedly embraced upon its initial release, was surely worthy of attention.

The following year, a real bone-chiller did surface in Best Foreign Language Film - and manage to triumph too - Ingmar Bergman's The Virgin Spring, a picture which served as the inspiration to Wes Craven's 1972 cult classic The Last House on the Left.

Bette Davis' Best Lead Actress nomination was among five Oscar nods for What Ever Happened to Baby Jane (1962, Aldrich).

Bette Davis' Best Lead Actress nomination was among five Oscar nods for What Ever Happened to Baby Jane (1962, Aldrich).

In 1962 and 1964, a horror sub-genre, the so-called "psycho-biddy" picture - that is, a film involving an older, once-glamorous woman who cracks and terrorizes those around her - garnered significant Oscar love. Two Bette Davis-headlined, Robert Aldrich-directed films - What Ever Happened to Baby Jane and Hush...Hush, Sweet Charlotte - received a combined 12 Oscar nominations, including three acting nods (for Davis and Victor Buono in the former and the dazzling Agnes Moorehead in the latter). The films only delivered a single win, however, for Norma Koch's costume design in Baby Jane.

Between those two camp classics, in 1963, Hitchcock's The Birds - which, while a box office success, did not reach the critical acclaim of Psycho - scored an Oscar nod in Best Special Effects, where it lost to the epically overblown Cleopatra. Notably missing this year was the brilliant The Haunting, which did at least manage a Golden Globe nomination for its director, Robert Wise.

The next three years were not gangbusters for the genre at the Oscars, or in general. Roman Polanski's startling Repulsion garnered runner-up mentions in Best Director and Best Lead Actress (for Catherine Denueve) at the 1965 New York Film Critics Circle Awards - and a Best Cinematography BAFTA nod to boot - but was a no-show on Oscar nominations morning. Beyond the Polanski film, there were few, if any Oscar-calibur horror films to speak of.

Audrey Hepburn received her fifth and final Best Lead Actress Oscar nomination for Wait Until Dark (1967, Young).

Audrey Hepburn received her fifth and final Best Lead Actress Oscar nomination for Wait Until Dark (1967, Young).

At last, in 1967, horror resurfaced at the Oscars, through a Best Lead Actress nomination for Audrey Hepburn in Terence Young's Wait Until Dark. The suspenseful and claustrophobic film, which features its leading lady as a blind woman terrorized by drug-scouring criminals, is among the boldest and most interesting efforts of Hepburn's career. (She ended up losing to another Hepburn, Katharine Hepburn, in Guess Who's Coming to Dinner.)

It's no surprise that, in 1968, the Academy was not ready to recognize a film like George A. Romero's terrifying Night of the Living Dead. At least they did have the courage to shower some affection on another sublime horror picture this year, Polanski's exquisite Rosemary's Baby. While the lack of nomination for Mia Farrow is truly unforgivable (and perhaps surprising - she garnered both Golden Globe and BAFTA nods), it is pretty sweet that the scene-stealing, equal-parts-hilarious-and-horrifying Ruth Gordon took home the prize for Best Supporting Actress. Polanski's screenplay was nominated too, losing to James Goldman's incomparable work on The Lion in Winter.

In 1972, horror cinema surfaced in the most unlikely of Oscar categories - Best Original Song, where Michael Jackson's "Ben," from the eponymous rat picture (1972, Carlson), garnered a nomination and ultimately lost to The Poseidon Adventure's dreadful "The Morning After." (If interested, feel free to check out my full analysis of '72 Best Original Song here.)

The Exorcist (1973, Friedkin) garnered 10 Oscar nominations, the most of any horror film to date.

The Exorcist (1973, Friedkin) garnered 10 Oscar nominations, the most of any horror film to date.

The following year, 1973, marked arguably the most impressive year for horror at the Oscars. While Robin Hardy's eerie The Wicker Man did not show up, nor did Nicolas Roeg's haunting Don't Look Now (which nonetheless went on to score seven BAFTA nominations, including a Best Cinematography victory), William Friedkin's blood-curdling The Exorcist proved a huge player that awards season. The second-highest grossing film of '73, the film went into Oscar night with an eye-popping 10 nominations, including Best Picture, Best Director, Best Adapted Screenplay and nods in three acting categories (for Ellen Burstyn, Jason Miller and Linda Blair). It set a nominations record for horror at the Oscars, which remains unbroken to this day.

At that year's Golden Globes, The Exorcist scored victories in Best Picture - Drama, Best Director, Best Screenplay and Best Supporting Actress. Surprisingly, the film received no love at all from the critics' awards and would only go on to receive a Best Soundtrack nomination at BAFTA. The film was a sure bet to win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars - it was the sole Best Picture nominee among the five - but, beyond that, its winning prospects were greatly uncertain. Blair began the race an overwhelming favorite but was dogged by press coverage on Oscar-winner Mercedes McCambridge's dubbing of the Regan character. This led to chatter that Blair's performance was more an effects-driven one than a real tour-de-force in acting. Many also suspected the picture was just too bold to make a real killing with the old-school Academy.

Those suspicions were right - The Exorcist indeed took home Best Adapted Screenplay on Oscar night, and just one other victory, in Best Sound. Blair lost to Tatum O'Neal in Paper Moon, Miller (as expected) lost to John Houseman in The Paper Chase and Burstyn lost to Glenda Jackson in A Touch of Class. Friedkin and the film were ultimately trampled over by George Roy Hill's even more financially successful (and more Academy-friendly) The Sting.

1974 did not, sadly, find Bob Clark's influential and truly terrifying slasher flick Black Christmas steamrolling the awards season. Instead, coming off the heels of dark and draining The Exorcist, the Academy catered to lighter horror fare, throwing a few nominations to Mel Brooks' ingenious Young Frankenstein (in Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Sound) and Brian De Palma's delightfully inventive Phantom of the Paradise (for Paul Williams, in Best Adapted Score). No surprise, there were no wins among the three nominations - as if Brooks' script had a prayer against The Godfather Part II - but kudos to the Academy for at least giving some recognition to these fantastic films.

Despite missing out on nominations in Best Director and Best Adapted Screenplay, Jaws (1975, Spielberg) garnered four Oscar nods, including Best Picture.

Despite missing out on nominations in Best Director and Best Adapted Screenplay, Jaws (1975, Spielberg) garnered four Oscar nods, including Best Picture.

In 1975, while Tobe Hooper's exhilarating The Texas Chainsaw Massacre was filling drive-ins across the nation but hardly winning support from the Hollywood establishment, newcomer Steven Spielberg's smash box office and critical sensation Jaws landed with a modest splash at the Oscars. The picture garnered four nominations - in Best Picture, Best Original Score, Best Film Editing and Best Sound - but was notably left out for Spielberg's direction. The Academy instead gave a surprise nomination to Frederico Fellini, whose Amarcord won Best Foreign Language Film. The Spielberg snub - coupled with no nod for screenwriting - all but ensured Jaws would not take home the top prize. It did, however, manage to take home the other three Oscars, one more than The Exorcist had mustered just a couple years back.

The following year found a Brian De Palma picture (at last!) receive major Oscar nominations. His film adaptation of Stephen King's Carrie was a decent-sized box office and critical hit - impressive for a De Palma horror flick but hardly on the level of a Jaws or Exorcist. Piper Laurie, who was previously Oscar-nominated for 1961's The Hustler, had not acted in a motion picture since the Paul Newman classic. Her presence in the 1976 awards season was not only a result of the dazzling notices for the De Palma film but also something of a "welcome back" after the 15-year hiatus. She was Oscar-nominated for the picture, as was leading lady Sissy Spacek. While Spacek likely didn't have a real prayer against front-runner Faye Dunaway (for Network), Best Supporting Actress was a real jump ball that year (and the Golden Globe winner, Katharine Ross in Voyage of the Damned, wasn't even Oscar-nominated). Beatrice Straight ultimately claimed victory for Network but it wouldn't surprise me if Laurie was a close runner-up in the final vote.

Also nominated in 1976? Richard Donner's The Omen, which scored nominations in Best Original Score and Best Original Song (both for composer Jerry Goldsmith), winning for the former. (My review of the nominated "Ave Santini" and the rest of '76 Best Original Song can be found here.)

1977 did not prove a prime year for horror at the Oscars - Dario Argento's Suspiria, which features some of the most gorgeous, eye-popping production design to have ever graced the big screen, was nowhere to be found. The following year was not much better, despite the releases of the legendary Dawn of the Dead (1978, Romero), Halloween (1978, Carpenter) and Invasion of the Body Snatchers (1978, Kaufman). Of course, while snubbing those masterpieces, the Academy had the nerve to recognize Irwin Allen's horrendous bee disaster flick The Swarm in Best Costume Design.

Alien (1979, Scott) was a big, fat box office hit but only mustered two Oscar nominations.

Alien (1979, Scott) was a big, fat box office hit but only mustered two Oscar nominations.

The decade ultimately ended on a so-so note for the genre. Ridley Scott's brilliant Alien was a juggernaut at the 1979 box office and richly deserved a boatload of nominations. It only, however, mustered two - Best Art Direction and Best Visual Effects, prevailing in the latter. The even more financially successful The Amityville Horror also managed an Oscar nod, for Lalo Schifrin's gangbusters original score. It lost to A Little Romance.

Coming up in Chapter III - Aliens and Hannibal Lecter, among others, take their bite at the Oscars...

October 10, 2016 /Andrew Carden
Oscar Flashback, Horror at the Oscars
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Review: "The Girl on the Train"

October 09, 2016 by Andrew Carden in Reviews

Someday, Emily Blunt, you will (at last!) get that Oscar nomination. I'm afraid, unfortunately, this again will probably not be the year.

Going into The Girl on the Train, adapted from Paula Hawkins' big, fat hit of a novel, I was expecting something of a pale Gone Girl imitation. Reviews for the picture, after all, were embargoed until a few mere days prior to release and when notices finally did surface, they weren't too flattering. Given the raves for its leading lady, I figured the picture might well prove a repeat of something like Mommie Dearest, where the brilliant Faye Dunaway was stuck carrying a gargantuan pile of trash on her shoulders.

Thankfully, The Girl on the Train is no Mommie Dearest. It almost never reaches the heights of the aforementioned Gone Girl either, but it is an entertaining, plenty watchable erotic-psychological thriller. The picture at times rings of Adrian Lyne adapting a Jacqueline Susann novel.

In the film, Blunt portrays Rachel Watson, a woman reeling from the end of her marriage to Tom (Justin Theroux), who cheated on Rachel with Anna (Rebecca Ferguson). Every day, the alcoholic, blackout-prone Rachel passes by Tom and Anna's home while taking the train into the city but it is the sight of their neighbors Megan (Haley Bennett) and Scott (Luke Evans) that really piques Rachel's interest. She views the seemingly madly-in-love Megan and Scott as an absolutely perfect couple. So, when Rachel notices something unusual at their home, involving Megan's therapist (Edgar Ramirez), and then Megan suddenly goes missing, she cannot help but investigate, even as she cannot trust her own memory due to all the boozing.

Blunt is flat-out fantastic in the picture, perhaps even more amazing here than in last year's Sicario, and anytime she graces the screen, The Girl on the Train is completely engrossing. When it comes to on-screen alcoholics, it's a turn right on-par with the legendary likes of Ray Milland in The Lost Weekend and Mickey Rourke and Faye Dunaway in Barfly.

Unfortunately, the rest of the film does not quite operate at the same sky-high level. Bennett leaves a strong impression as Megan but the other ensemble players - sans Allison Janney, terrific (as always) as the detective investigating Megan's disappearance - don't seem as invested. The picture sports a polished, gloomy look, not unlike Gone Girl, but rarely musters the same suspense as that film. Danny Elfman's score is a nice fit.

Ultimately, if I have to point a finger at a single person for not delivering a more all-around satisfying film, it would have to be the picture's director, Tate Taylor, who also leaned heavily on the strength of his cast to make something out of The Help. That film had half a dozen or so marvelous performances, which effectively overshadowed the lethargy of Taylor's direction. This time around, Taylor recruited a cast that, for the most part, wasn't so willing to do such heavy lifting.

With that said, The Girl on the Train is still well worth a look, for both thriller fans and to see Blunt operating at the top of her game.

B

October 09, 2016 /Andrew Carden
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Universal Pictures' The Invisible Man Returns (1940, May) garnered an Oscar nomination in Best Special Effects. The Invisible Man (1933, Whale) was the recipient of no Oscar recognition.

Universal Pictures' The Invisible Man Returns (1940, May) garnered an Oscar nomination in Best Special Effects. The Invisible Man (1933, Whale) was the recipient of no Oscar recognition.

HORROR at the Oscars! Chapter I (1928-1959)

October 03, 2016 by Andrew Carden in Oscar Flashback

In looking back at the history of horror cinema and its performance at the Oscars, it must first be acknowledged that a plethora of outstanding pictures in this genre were released prior to the very existence of the Academy Awards.

The legendary likes of The Cabinet of Dr. Caligari (1920, Wiene), Nosferatu (1922, Murnau) and The Phantom of the Opera (1925, Julian), among others, all garnered releases prior to the first Oscar ceremony, in 1928. Decades later, of course, the Academy would embrace multiple remakes of Phantom, as well as as a picture about the making of Nosferatu.

There were not many horror films eligible for consideration at the first Oscar ceremony - the most worthy of such recognition would have been Paul Leni's haunting The Man Who Laughs, one of countless horror films released in the first half of the century by Universal Pictures. Leni's film did not garner any awards love and neither did Universal's much more successful and iconic Dracula (1931, Browning) and Frankenstein (1931, Whale) a few years later.

Fredric March won his first of two career Oscars for Paramount's Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde (1932, Marmoulian).

Fredric March won his first of two career Oscars for Paramount's Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde (1932, Marmoulian).

It was not until the following year, in 1932, that the Academy embraced a horror film. It was not Freaks (1932, Browning) or The Mummy (1932, Freund) that won this recognition but rather a non-Universal production, Paramount's Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde, directed by Rouben Mamoulian and featuring a stirring leading turn from the great Fredric March. Nominated for three Oscars - Best Lead Actor, Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Cinematography - the picture ultimately went home with one award, for its leading man. March would, 15 years later, go on to win a second Oscar in this category, for The Best Years of Our Lives.

The next seven years would prove much of a dry spell for horror at the Oscars. The much-hyped and adored The Bride of Frankenstein (1935, Whale) only mustered a single nomination, in Best Sound. Other, admittedly lesser Universal productions were ignored entirely.

In 1939 and 1940, however, horror made a notable return to the Oscars. Four pictures, including two Universal productions, one Paramount effort and one RKO film, garnered nominations.

RKO's The Hunchback of Notre Dame (1939, Dieterle) received Oscar nods in Best Original Score and Best Sound.

RKO's The Hunchback of Notre Dame (1939, Dieterle) received Oscar nods in Best Original Score and Best Sound.

RKO's costly The Hunchback of Notre Dame (1939, Dieterle), starring Charles Laughton and Maureen O'Hara, won nominations in Best Original Score and Best Sound. The other three pictures - Paramount's Dr. Cyclops (1940, Schoedsack) and Universal's The Invisible Man Returns (1940, May) and The Invisible Woman (1940, Sutherland) - were nominated in Best Special Effects, none able to to prevail. That the latter two pictures garnered Oscar love while the first (and best) film in the series, The Invisible Man (1933, Whale), received zero nominations, might seem a bit of an eyebrow-raiser, except that Best Special Effects category did not really come to fruition until 1939.

In 1941, the Academy sadly did not embrace George Waggner's classic The Wolf Man. They did, however, curiously opt to reward that year's production of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde, a starry vehicle for Spencer Tracy, Ingrid Bergman and Lana Turner, directed by the incomparable Victor Fleming. Despite all of that star wattage, however, the picture is kind of a snooze, half-heartedly delivered by all involved. Nonetheless, the Academy went for it anyway, rewarding it three nominations, in Best Cinematography, Best Film Editing and Best Original Score. The Academy also this year gave a Best Original Score nom to Jean Yarbrough's silly horror-comedy King of the Zombies. (Bernard Herrman's composition for The Devil and Daniel Webster ultimately defeated the two horror flicks.)

Universal's sumptuous 1943 retelling of The Phantom of the Opera garnered four Oscar nominations, including two victories - in Best Art Direction and Best Cinematography. It was the last of the studio's classic "monster movies" to receive an Oscar n…

Universal's sumptuous 1943 retelling of The Phantom of the Opera garnered four Oscar nominations, including two victories - in Best Art Direction and Best Cinematography. It was the last of the studio's classic "monster movies" to receive an Oscar nod.

No, there was inexplicably no love for RKO's Cat People (1942, Tourneur) the following year. In 1943, however, Universal at last got one of their "monster movies" to resonate in a significant way with the Academy. Arthur Lubin's ravishing The Phantom of the Opera, headlined by the always-outstanding Claude Rains, was not at the time a real box-office or critical smash. It did, however, receive four Oscar nominations - Best Original Score, Best Sound, Best Art Direction and Best Cinematography - winning the last two prizes. Sadly for Universal, Phantom would prove the last of the studio's classic horror films to receive any Oscar recognition. (And no, no love to be found for any of Universal's Abbott and Costello horror vehicles.)

The remainder of the 1940s and all of the 1950s were not so great for horror cinema at the Oscars in general.

1945's The Picture of Dorian Gray, directed by Albert Lewin and headlined by George Sanders and Donna Reed, was not a box office success but did win nominations in Best Supporting Actress (for the exquisite Angela Lansbury), Best Art Direction and Best Cinematography, the last of which it managed to win. It would take more than a decade from here, however, for another horror film to garner multiple Oscar nominations.

Ted Parmalee's The Tell-Tale Heart was one of several short features in the horror genre to garner Oscar recognition.

Ted Parmalee's The Tell-Tale Heart was one of several short features in the horror genre to garner Oscar recognition.

Three short subjects from the horror genre, two animated and one live-action, received Oscar nominations in these in-between years - Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Mouse (1947, Hanna and Barbera), Return to Glennascaul (1951, Edwards) and The Tell-Tale Heart (1953, Parmaelee). While the Hanna-Barbera short is merely an amusing Tom & Jerry parody of that classic story, the other two productions are truly outstanding, must-sees for any fan of classic horror.

The deliriously entertaining Them! (1954, Douglas) also managed to show up at the Oscars, landing a Best Special Effects nomination. (That prize ultimately went to 20,000 Leagues Under the Sea.) No Oscar love, unfortunately, for 20th Century Fox's legendary The Fly (1958, Neumann) or Warner Brothers' groundbreaking House of Wax (1953, Toth), the first-ever 3-D film in color. Also egregiously overlooked - all of the gorgeously produced British Hammer Horror pictures.

Warner Brothers' outrageously campy The Bad Seed (1956, LeRoy) was embraced by audiences and the Academy alike - it received four Oscar nominations, including three acting nods.

Warner Brothers' outrageously campy The Bad Seed (1956, LeRoy) was embraced by audiences and the Academy alike - it received four Oscar nominations, including three acting nods.

The final horror film nominated in the 1950s, and the only one in the decade to win multiple nominations, is, I would argue, barely a real horror picture. (That is, unless the sight of relentlessly campy, unintentionally funny acting sends shivers down your spine.) Warner Brothers' The Bad Seed (1956, LeRoy) was certainly at least marketed as a horror flick, however, and fared exceedingly well at that year's box office. It garnered four Oscar nominations that year - for Best Cinematography, Best Lead Actress (Nancy Kelly) and two in Best Supporting Actress (Patty McCormack and the scene-stealing Eileen Heckart) - albeit, with no wins. The Bad Seed would prove just the first of several horror camp classics to win over the Academy.

Before we get to those other horror campfests, however, I'll be taking a look at the year 1960, when a certain Hitchcock classic took its stab at Oscar glory...

October 03, 2016 /Andrew Carden
Oscar Flashback, Horror at the Oscars
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William Friedkin's The Exorcist garnered 10 Oscar nominations in 1973 - the most of any horror film to date.

William Friedkin's The Exorcist garnered 10 Oscar nominations in 1973 - the most of any horror film to date.

Coming Soon...HORROR at the Oscars!

September 26, 2016 by Andrew Carden in Oscar Flashback

Over the past seven months, I have embarked on a Best Original Song project, reviewing all 82 years of that Oscar category's nominees. I don't plan on tackling another adventure like that for a while, not until the coming awards season is wrapped up. I have, however, very much wanted to do one more project before exclusively focusing on the 2016 horse race (in addition to my usual film reviews) and October, with Halloween not too far off on the horizon, is the perfect month to do it.

During October, I will be taking a fond look back at the Oscar history of my very favorite film genre...horror.

As a film buff who was raised on horror - and whose parents somehow had no qualms about renting R-rated slasher films for him as a young lad (in addition to milder mainstays like Attack of the Killer Tomatoes and Killer Klowns from Outer Space) - I have long been enamored with this genre. My father got me into the classics - the Universal monster movies and Hammer horror flicks (which, let it be known, also sported some of the most drop-dead gorgeous women to ever grace the big screen) - while my mom was all about the '70s horror, plus Freddy Krueger, Chucky, Leprechaun and so on.

The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences of course, unfortunately, did not opt to recognize any of the films of those horror franchise legends. Looking back, however, there are a number of surprises and eyebrow-raisers in terms of what horror pictures the Academy did nominate. Awards buffs know the critically acclaimed likes of The Exorcist and Jaws were embraced but just wait 'til you see which of the Universal monster movies the Academy honorned in technical categories - and no, it ain't Dracula or The Bride of Frankenstein.

During this small-scale Oscar Flashback, which I plan to break down in four chapters over four weeks, I'll be looking back at every single horror film nominated for an Oscar, including the well-known, Oscar-winning contenders, the nominated short subjects of the genre and the real duds that made it into Oscar night with a single nomination. I'll also discuss the horror films that struck out with the Academy, despite precursor attention, and the unimpeachable classics that failed to make any awards dent at all.

Note that it's entirely possible, if not likely, that I will gloss over a film that was nominated or a true juggernaut of the genre that deserved Oscar love. That's what the comments section is for - enjoy and respond away!

But just remember, on my blog, no one can hear you scream...

September 26, 2016 /Andrew Carden
Oscar Flashback, Horror at the Oscars
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2016 Oscar Nomination Predictions (September)

September 21, 2016 by Andrew Carden in Oscars

With my Best Original Song project behind me, I am (at last!) ready to squarely focus on this year's Oscar horse race. (That is, in addition to my usual movie reviews and one small, spooky October project that I'll reveal more info on in the coming days.)

The 2016 Oscar race has already, to put it mildly, proven an exciting and fascinating one. It's no surprise the likes of La La Land and Manchester by the Sea were whole-heartedly embraced on the festival scene but I for one did not expect such raves for Jackie or even Nocturnal Animals. A number of potential Oscar contenders have already garnered domestic releases - among them, Sully, Hell or High Water, The Jungle Book and Florence Foster Jenkins - and we'll see if they can hang on amidst the onslaught of Oscar-bait about to flood the big screens over the coming months.

There remain many unanswered questions.

Will, for instance, Martin Scorsese's Silence actually see the light of day? (At this point, I am going to presume Paramount gets the film out on time and predict it in a number of categories...but I suspect it's a real coin flip.)

Then, there's Fences - will it prove a threat in not only Lead Actor and Lead Actress but also Picture and Director, or could it go the way of middling stage-to-screen adaptations like The History Boys and Proof? Likewise, is Billy Lynn another Ang Lee winner or have we perhaps been overestimating the picture all along? These are two potential-juggernauts but, unlike La La Land and Manchester by the Sea, we really haven't a clue yet how strong the pictures are. Same goes for Rules Don't Apply, Passengers and Allied.

Of course, there's also The Birth of a Nation. Has all of the controversy surrounding Nate Parker's college rape trial left the picture dead in the water, or can Parker and Fox Searchlight still make a success out of it? For now, I remain skeptical but anything is possible in what no doubt will be a true roller coaster ride of an awards season.

With that said, here are my first full Oscar predictions of the 2016 season, ranked from most to least likely to garner a nomination. I'll be updating them once a month from here on out. Of course feel free to comment and offer up your own thoughts and predictions!

Best Picture

  1. La La Land
  2. Manchester by the Sea
  3. Fences
  4. Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
  5. Jackie
  6. Loving
  7. Silence
  8. Arrival
  9. Hidden Figures
    ---
  10. Allied
  11. Lion
  12. Nocturnal Animals
  13. Rules Don't Apply
  14. The Birth of a Nation
  15. Moonlight

Best Director

  1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land
  2. Ang Lee, Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
  3. Denzel Washington, Fences
  4. Martin Scorsese, Silence
  5. Denis Villanueve, Arrival
    ---
  6. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
  7. Jeff Nichols, Loving
  8. Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals
  9. Warren Beatty, Rules Don't Apply
  10. Pablo Larrain, Jackie

Best Lead Actor

  1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
  2. Denzel Washington, Fences
  3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land
  4. Joel Edgerton, Loving
  5. Joe Alwyn, Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
    ---
  6. Tom Hanks, Sully
  7. Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals
  8. Michael Keaton, The Founder
  9. Andrew Garfield, Silence (Hacksaw Ridge if Silence not released)
  10. Dev Patel, Lion

Best Lead Actress

  1. Emma Stone, La La Land
  2. Natalie Portman, Jackie
  3. Viola Davis, Fences
  4. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
  5. Ruth Negga, Loving
    ---
  6. Amy Adams, Arrival
  7. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures
  8. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women
  9. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane
  10. Isabelle Huppert, Elle

Best Supporting Actor

  1. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
  2. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
  3. Warren Beatty, Rules Don't Apply
  4. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
  5. Liam Neeson, Silence
    ---
  6. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
  7. Peter Sarsgaard, Jackie
  8. Steve Martin, Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
  9. Stephen Henderson, Fences
  10. Mykelti Williamson, Fences

Best Supporting Actress

  1. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
  2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight
  3. Kristen Stewart, Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
  4. Nicole Kidman, Lion
  5. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
    ---
  6. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women
  7. Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls
  8. Annette Bening, Rules Don't Apply
  9. Elle Fanning, 20th Century Women
  10. Laura Linney, Nocturnal Animals

Best Original Screenplay

  1. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
  2. Jeff Nichols, Loving
  3. Damien Chazelle, La La Land
  4. Noah Oppenheim, Jackie
  5. Jared Bush, Byron Howard, Phil Johnston, Jennifer Lee, Rich Moore, Jim Reardon and Josie Trinidad, Zootopia
    ---
  6. Ron Clements and John Musker, Moana
  7. Barry Jenkins and Tarell McCraney, Moonlight
  8. Warren Beatty, Rules Don't Apply
  9. Steven Knight, Allied
  10. Asghar Farhadi, The Salesman

Best Adapted Screenplay

  1. August Wilson, Fences
  2. Jean-Christophe Castelli, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
  3. Jay Cocks, Silence
  4. Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals
  5. Allison Schroeder, Hidden Figures
    ---
  6. Luke Davies, Lion
  7. Eric Heisserer, Arrival
  8. Whit Stillman, Love & Friendship
  9. David Birke, Elle
  10. Justin Marks, The Jungle Book

Best Animated Feature

  1. Zootopia
  2. Moana
  3. Sing
  4. The Red Turtle
  5. Finding Dory
    ---
  6. Kubo and the Two Strings
  7. Sausage Party
  8. The Secret Life of Pets
  9. April and the Extraordinary World
  10. Miss Hokusai

Best Cinematography

  1. Linus Sandgren, La La Land
  2. John Toll, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
  3. Bradford Young, Arrival
  4. Rodrigo Prieto, Silence
  5. Seamus McGarvey, Nocturnal Animals
    ---
  6. Bill Pope, The Jungle Book
  7. Charlotte Bruus Christiansen, Fences
  8. Elliot Davis, The Birth of a Nation
  9. Greig Fraser, Lion
  10. Don Burgess, Allied

Best Costume Design

  1. Mary Zophres, La La Land
  2. Joanna Johnston, Allied
  3. Albert Wolsky, Rules Don't Apply
  4. Eimer Ni Mhaoldomhnaigh, Love & Friendship
  5. Consolata Boyle, Florence Foster Jenkins
    ---
  6. Madeline Fontaine, Jackie
  7. Sandy Powell, Silence
  8. Sharen Davis, Fences
  9. Francine Jamison-Tanchuck, The Birth of a Nation
  10. Colleen Atwood, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Best Film Editing

  1. Tom Cross, La La Land
  2. Thelma Schoonmaker, Silence
  3. Tim Squyre, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
  4. Joe Walker, Arrival
  5. Hughes Winborne, Fences
    ---
  6. Joan Sobel, Nocturnal Animals
  7. Jennifer Lame, Manchester by the Sea
  8. Steven Rosenblum, The Birth of a Nation
  9. Joi McMillon and Nat Sanders, Moonlight
  10. Jeremiah O’Driscoll, Allied

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

  1. Florence Foster Jenkins
  2. Rules Don't Apply
  3. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
    ---
  4. Love & Friendship
  5. Hidden Figures
  6. La La Land
  7. Star Trek: Beyond
  8. Jackie
  9. Hail, Caesar!
  10. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Best Original Score

  1. Opetaia Foa’i, Mark Mancina and Lin-Manuel Miranda, Moana
  2. Michael Giacchino, Zootopia
  3. Johann Johansson, Arrival
  4. Jeff and Mychael Danna, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
  5. Justin Hurwitz, La La Land
    ---
  6. Howard Shore, Silence
  7. Mica Levi, Jackie
  8. Thomas Newman, Finding Dory
  9. Alexandre Desplat, Florence Foster Jenkins
  10. Henry Jackman, The Birth of a Nation

Best Original Song

  1. "City of Stars," La La Land
  2. "We Know the Way," Moana
  3. "Audition," La La Land
  4. "How Far I'll Go," Moana
  5. "Go Now," Sing Street
    ---
  6. "Victory," Hidden Figures
  7. "The Great Beyond, Sausage Party
  8. "Can't Stop the Feeling," Trolls
  9. "Try Everything," Zootopia
  10. "Drive It Like You Stole It," Sing Street

Best Production Design

  1. David Wasco, La La Land
  2. Jeannine Oppewall, Rules Don't Apply
  3. Dante Ferretti, Silence
  4. Gary Freeman, Allied
  5. David Gropman, Fences
    ---
  6. Stuart Craig, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
  7. Anna Rackard, Love & Friendship
  8. Geoffrey Kirkland, The Birth of a Nation
  9. Jean Rabasse, Jackie
  10. Mark Friedberg, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

Best Sound Editing

  1. La La Land
  2. Arrival
  3. Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
  4. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
  5. Silence
    ---
  6. Moana
  7. Allied
  8. Passengers
  9. Deepwater Horizon
  10. Captain America: Civil War

Best Sound Mixing

  1. La La Land
  2. Arrival
  3. Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
  4. Silence
  5. Moana
    ---
  6. Allied
  7. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
  8. Passengers
  9. Zootopia
  10. Deepwater Horizon

Best Visual Effects

  1. Arrival
  2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
  3. Passengers
  4. Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
  5. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
    ---
  6. The Jungle Book
  7. Captain America: Civil War
  8. A Monster Calls
  9. Star Trek: Beyond
  10. Deadpool

Best Documentary Feature

  1. The 13th
  2. Gleason
  3. The Seasons in Quincy: Four Portraits of John Berger
  4. Equal Means Equal
  5. Newtown
    ---
  6. Three Days of Terror: The Charlie Hebdo Attacks
  7. Fire at Sea
  8. Miss Sharon Jones
  9. By Sidney Lumet
  10. Lo and Behold, Reveries of the Connected World

Best Foreign Language Film

  1. The Salesman (Iran)
  2. Death in Sarajevo (Bosnia)
  3. Elle (France)
  4. Sand Storm (Israel)
  5. Ma'Rosa (Phillippines)
    ---
  6. United States of Love (Poland)
  7. Julieta (Spain)
  8. From Afar (Venezuela)
  9. The Happiest Day in the Life of Olli Mäki (Finland)
  10. Barakah Meets Barakah (Saudi Arabia)
September 21, 2016 /Andrew Carden
Oscars 2016, Oscars
Oscars
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