2017 Oscar Nomination Predictions (Summer Edition)

Too early to start talking the 2017 Oscars? As if!

Heaps, no doubt, will change over the months to come, as a host of pictures, both big and small, flood theaters with awards season aspirations. There will be the Allieds and the Rules Don't Applys, the supposed surefire Oscar contenders that instead spectacularly go up in flames. There will also be the sleepers, like Hell or High Water and Hidden Figures, with surprise success in store, perhaps at the 11 o'clock hour. And there will be the heartbreakers, like Jackie and 20th Century Women, that don't quite triumph on Oscar nominations morning like they should.

This far out, nomination predictions, much as I have a blast putting them together, are very much a shot in the dark. Yes, a pocketful of contenders have already seen the light of day in theaters and sure, another handful have screened here and there. The vast majority, however, remain complete question marks.

The likes of Steven Spielberg's The Papers, Joe Wright's Darkest Hour and Paul Thomas Anderson's Phantom Thread, on paper at least, sound like knockouts, poised to feast on recognition come awards season. Of course, we won't know for some time if any of those three pictures will live up to such expectations.

Woody Allen, Darren Aronofsky, Kathryn Bigelow and Christopher Nolan, among other juggernaut filmmakers, all have films this year, while Oscar favorites including Daniel Day-Lewis, Judi Dench, Frances McDormand, Michael Shannon (yes, I totally consider him an Oscar fave after pulling not one but two nominations out of a hat) and, of course, Meryl Streep are gearing up to potentially barnstorm this awards season.

There are countless questions. Will Murder on the Orient Express flop or flourish? Can Get Out emerge a serious contender, despite Oscar aversion to horror and an early release date? Will Tom Hanks at last return to the Oscars after a series of snubs? What about Jake Gyllenhaal? And just what on earth is Mother! really all about?

Those inquiries and many more shall soon be answered. For now, let's take a rough stab at this. Below you will find my first Oscar nomination predictions of the year, ranked from most to least likely to be recognized. A handful of categories - Foreign Film, Documentary Feature, Original Song and the shorts - I don't feel confident at all forecasting this far out, so I'll hold off on those until the fall.

Of course, I wholeheartedly encourage you to comment with your own thoughts and predictions as well. This, no doubt, per usual, will be one hell of an awards season.

Here's to the 2017 Oscars!

Best Picture

1. Dunkirk
2. The Papers
3. Darkest Hour
4. Call Me By Your Name
5. Phantom Thread
6. The Current War
7. Detroit
8. Marshall
9. Breathe
   ---
10. Blade Runner 2049
11. Mother!
12. Wonder Wheel
13. The Big Sick
14. Victoria & Abdul
15. Get Out

Best Director

1. Steven Spielberg, The Papers
2. Joe Wright, Darkest Hour
3. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
4. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
5. Darren Aronofsky, Mother!
   ---
6. Kathryn Bigelow, Detroit
7. Denis Villenueve, Blade Runner 2049
8. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me By Your Name
9. Alfonso Gomez-Rejon, The Current War
10. Andy Serkis, Breathe

Best Lead Actor

1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
3. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Current War
4. Andrew Garfield, Breathe
5. Chadwick Boseman, Marshall
   ---
6. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger
7. Tom Hanks, The Papers
8. Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying
9. Denzel Washington, Roman Israel, Esq.
10. Donald Sutherland, The Leisure Seeker

Best Lead Actress

1. Meryl Streep, The Papers
2. Judi Dench, Victoria & Abdul
3. Jennifer Lawrence, Mother!
4. Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel
5. Jessica Chastain, Molly's Game
   ---
6. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri
7. Claire Foy, Breathe
8. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes
9. Annette Bening, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool
10. Glenn Close, The Wife

Best Supporting Actor

1. Michael Shannon, The Current War
2. Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour
3. Sterling K. Brown, Marshall
4. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me By Your Name
5. Steve Carell, Last Flag Flying
   ---
6. Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name
7. Colin Farrell, Roman Israel, Esq.
8. Jason Mitchell, Mudbound
9. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
10. Ray Romano, The Big Sick

Best Supporting Actress

1. Melissa Leo, Novitiate
2. Kristin Scott-Thomas, Darkest Hour
3. Michelle Pfeiffer, Mother!
4. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick
5. Carrie Coon, The Papers
   ---
6. Katherine Waterston, The Current War
7. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
8. Kirsten Dunst, The Beguiled
9. Julianne Moore, Wonderstruck
10. Nicole Kidman, The Killing of a Sacred Deer

Best Original Screenplay

1. Anthony McCarten, Darkest Hour
2. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
3. Michael Mitnick, The Current War
4. Woody Allen, Wonder Wheel
5. Joel and Ethan Coen, Suburbicon
   ---
6. Emily V. Gordon and Kumail Nanjiani, The Big Sick
7. Alexander Payne and Jim Taylor, Downsizing
8. Efthymis Filippou and Yorgos Lanthimos, The Killing of a Sacred Deer
9. Jordan Peele, Get Out
10. Michael and Jacob Koskoff, Marshall

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Liz Hannah and Josh Singer, The Papers
2. Walter Fasano, Luca Guardagnino and James Ivory, Call Me By Your Name
3. Richard Linklater and Darryl Ponicsan, Last Flag Flying
4. Lee Hall, Victoria & Abdul
5. Dee Rees and Virgil Williams, Mudbound
   ---
6. Sofia Coppola, The Beguiled
7. Aaron Sorkin, Molly's Game
8. Andrew Haigh, Lean on Pete
9. Ian McEwan, On Chesil Beach
10. Hampton Fancher and Michael Green, Blade Runner 2049

Best Animated Feature

1. Coco
2. The Breadwinner
3. Cars 3
4. Ferdinand
5. Despicable Me 3
   ---
6. The Lego Batman Movie
7. The Star
8. The Lego Ninjago
9. Captain Underpants
10. My Entire High School Sinking into the Sea

Best Cinematography

1. Roger Deakins, Blade Runner 2049
2. Hoyte Van Hoytema, Dunkirk
3. Barry Ackroyd, Detroit
4. Bruno Delbonnel, Darkest Hour
5. Robert Richardson, Breathe
   ---
6. Matthew Libatique, Mother!
7. Janusz Kaminski, The Papers
8. Sayombhu Mukdeeprom, Call Me By Your Name
9. Edward Lachmann, Wonderstruck
10. Phillippe Le Sourd, The Beguiled

Best Costume Design

1. Mark Bridges, Phantom Thread
2. Consolata Boyle, Victoria & Abdul
3. Jacqueline Durran, Darkest Hour
4. Stacey Battat, The Beguiled
5. Ruth E. Carter, Marshall
   ---
6. Ellen Miojnick, The Greatest Showman
7. Jacqueline Durran, Beauty and the Beast
8. Alexandra Byrne, Murder on the Orient Express
9. Michael Wikinson, The Current War
10. Lindy Hemming, Wonder Woman

Best Film Editing

1. Lee Smith, Dunkirk
2. Michael Kahn, The Papers
3. William Goldenberg and Harry Yoon, Detroit
4. Joe Walker, Blade Runner 2049
5. Dylan Tichenor, Phantom Thread
   ---
6. Valerio Bonelli, Darkest Hour
7. David Trachenberg, The Current War
8. Jonathan Amos and Paul Machliss, Baby Driver
9. Bob Ducsay, Star Wars: The Last Jedi
10. Andrew Weisblum, Mother!

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

1. Darkest Hour
2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
3. Beauty and the Beast
   ---
4. The Greatest Showman
5. Murder on the Orient Express
6. The Current War
7. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
8. Wonderstruck
9. Logan
10. Mother!

Best Original Score

1. John Williams, The Papers
2. Hans Zimmer, Dunkirk
3. Dario Marianelli, Darkest Hour
4. Dustin O'Halloran, The Current War
5. Thomas Newman, Victoria & Abdul
   ---
6. Alexandre Desplat, The Shape of Water
7. Johann Johannsson, Blade Runner 2049
8. John Williams, Star Wars: The Last Jedi
9. Jonny Greenwood, Phantom Thread
10. Benj Pasek and Justin Paul, The Greatest Showman

Best Production Design

1. Sarah Greenwood, Darkest Hour
2. Dennis Gassner, Blade Runner 2049
3. Nathan Crowley, Dunkirk
4. Paul D. Austerberry, The Shape of Water
5. Mark Tildesley, Phantom Thread
   ---
6. Anne Ross, The Beguiled
7. Jan Roelfs, The Current War
8. Nathan Crowley, The Greatest Showman
9. Sarah Finley and Adam Squires, Victoria & Abdul
10. Philip Messina, Mother!

Best Sound Editing

1. Dunkirk
2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
3. Blade Runner 2049
4. Detroit
5. Baby Driver
   ---
6. The Papers
7. The Current War
8. Spider-Man: Homecoming
9. Beauty and the Beast
10. Darkest Hour

Best Sound Mixing

1. Dunkirk
2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
3. Blade Runner 2049
4. Detroit
5. The Papers
   ---
6. The Current War
7. Darkest Hour
8. Baby Driver
9. Phantom Thread
10. Coco

Best Visual Effects

1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
2. Blade Runner 2049
3. Dunkirk
4. Beauty and the Beast
5. The Shape of Water
   ---
6. War for the Planet of the Apes
7. Wonder Woman
8. Spider-Man: Homecoming
9. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
10. Thor: Ragnarok

Review: "A Ghost Story"

Where is Oda Mae Brown when you need her?!

A Ghost Story, the latest picture from filmmaker David Lowery (Ain't Them Bodies Saints, Pete's Dragon) is a film both sensitive and standoffish. While the sadness in Casey Affleck's performance, even as he's covered from head to toe in a white sheet, is palpable, the proceedings are meandering and ultimately left me cold and restless.

The film opens on C (Affleck), a recently deceased musician who, donning the white sheet, wanders out of the hospital to return home and console his mourning wife M (Rooney Mara). C observes as M goes through the grieving process and, after she moves out, finds himself watching over the house's future inhabitants, including a single mom and her children and a group of partygoers. All along, C is working, to negligible success, to retrieve a hand-written note M tucked inside the crack of a wall before her departure.

A Ghost Story looks and sounds phenomenal, with sumptuous cinematography by Andrew Droz Palermo and a stirring score from Daniel Hart. Their contributions and Affleck's curiously moving turn aside, however, the proceedings are overwhelmingly lethargic and lacking the profound, spiritual feeling no doubt intended. The picture also boasts one of the most ham-fisted monologues on humanity to ever grace the screen.

Not without its merits, A Ghost Story is a noble failure.

C+

Review: "The Big Sick"

At last, a Judd Apatow production that doesn't leave me restless!

Comic geniuses/writers Kumail Nanjiani and Emily V. Gordon have joined Michael Showalter, the filmmaker behind last year's splendid Hello, My Name Is Doris, to deliver one of the finest romantic dramedies in recent years. The Big Sick plays like Don't Think Twice (the best comedy of 2016) meets Love Story (one of the most maudlin films of all-time)...and thankfully falls a lot closer to the former than the latter in quality.

Based on his real-life courtship with Gordon, Nanjiani portrays a Pakistan-born comic who meets and falls for Emily (Zoe Kazan) at one of his shows. Their relationship flourishes for some time, that is before his refusal to acknowledge the relationship to his traditional Muslim parents leaves Emily skeptical of her place in Kumail's future. She ends the relationship just before tragedy strikes - Emily falls ill, is hospitalized and soon placed into a medically induced coma.

Despite their split, Kumail is determined to remain by her side...and then Emily's parents (Holly Hunter and Ray Romano) show up. While her folks initially give Kumail a rather chilly reception, their mutual affection for and distress over Emily slowly but surely bring them together.

The Big Sick pulls off a remarkable balancing act, drawing big, well-earned laughs and tugging at the heartstrings in a way that isn't nauseatingly manipulative. The cast is all-around marvelous - Nanjiani and Kazan make for an enchanting and convincing team; this is perhaps Hunter's best performance since Living Out Loud in 1998 (keep an eye on this four-time nominee during Oscar season); and Romano has never, ever been this good. Also, all of the actors portraying Nanjiani's family are dead-on perfection.

Even if this proves one hell of a year at the cinema, The Big Sick will undoubtedly go down as one of the finest of 2017.

A

Review: "Baby Driver"

Ah, movie soundtracks. Wall-to-wall tunes can make great cinema all the more powerful (think American Graffiti, Goodfellas and Stand By Me) and, on occasion, give a considerable lift to otherwise ho-hum pictures (like Waiting to Exhale and yes, Saturday Night Fever).

In recent years, however, I've grown a tad wary of films leaning so heavily on their music. American Hustle and Guardians of the Galaxy, for instance, sport fabulous soundtracks but are otherwise middling and uninspired pictures. Still, people ate these two movies up, in large part because of the countless classic tunes trotted out in both films. The use of a fantastic song can do wonders with a scene...even if there's really nothing else of note to speak of on the screen.

Like those two pictures, Edgar Wright's Baby Driver sports one hell of a soundtrack, stuffed with '70s tracks and a scattering of tunes from other decades too. Unlike those films, however, Wright's picture also has some meat on its bones beyond just the music.

Ansel Elgort is Baby, the masterful getaway driver who, with earbuds and a limitless iTunes collection in tow, is a true beast behind the wheel. Baby begrudgingly works for heist mastermind Doc (Kevin Spacey) to both pay off a debt he owes to the kingpin and support his deaf foster father (C.J. Jones). Among the colorful characters Baby is stuck chauffeuring around are the hotheaded Buddy (Jon Hamm), vicious Bats (Jamie Foxx) and conniving Darling (Elza Gonzalez).

One day, Baby comes across the woman of his dreams, diner waitress Deborah (Lily James). That head-over-heels feeling is mutual but just when it appears Baby's business with Doc is over and the young couple can drive off into the sunset together, Doc forces Baby into another, even more perilous heist job. With Baby itching to run away with his new love and tensions high among the increasingly unhinged team, odds are heads will roll this time around.

More than anything, Baby Driver is a master class in film editing and sound. The car chase sequences here nearly rival the legendary likes of Bullitt and The French Connection. Per usual with Wright's films, there is no shortage of buoyant energy beaming off the screen and the director/writer also does a lovely job with the romance between Baby and Deborah. Their scenes together have a genuine, warm charm that serve as a refreshing break from an otherwise punchy and savage picture.

Elgort isn't necessarily the most compelling of actors but still makes for a plenty convincing and engaging Baby. Even better is James, enchanting as the innocent dragged along for the dizzying ride. Spacey, Hamm and Foxx are just OK as the heist-hungry crooks - all three, obviously, have been in much more challenging form before but also don't bring a whole lot of juice to their roles. It's some of the smaller turns, like the endearing and funny Jones and Andrea Frye, as an old lady both carjacked and charmed by Baby, that often steal the show.

Baby Driver isn't spectacular from head to toe - the non-action scenes involving the criminals aren't all that absorbing and the combo of violence and comedy isn't as at-ease as in Wright's Hot Fuzz - but still, it's a fun and vibrant summer romp for the most part, with some dynamite set pieces. Also, how could I not enjoy a film that intertwines both It's Complicated and The Little Rascals in the same scene?

B+

Oscar Flashback - 20 YEARS OF STREEP!

2016: Florence Foster Jenkins
2014: Into the Woods
2013: August: Osage County
2011: The Iron Lady
2009: Julie & Julia
2008: Doubt
2006: The Devil Wears Prada
2002: Adaptation
1999: Music of the Heart
1998: One True Thing
1995: The Bridges of Madison County
1990: Postcards from the Edge
1988: A Cry in the Dark
1987: Ironweed
1985: Out of Africa
1983: Silkwood
1982: Sophie's Choice
1981: The French Lieutenant's Woman
1979: Kramer vs. Kramer
1978: The Deer Hunter

As this past Oscar season drew to a close, I began mulling over writing projects I'd like to work on in the post-season. Last year, of course, I spent seven months reviewing all 82 years (up to that point) of Best Original Song and then followed that up with a month's worth of revisiting horror films recognized by the Academy. Both of these projects were a complete blast to work on and I've been eager to dive into another Oscar Flashback.

So, I was thinking...maybe review every single year of a category like Best Supporting Actor? Perhaps just a tad too time-consuming. How about Best Makeup, a more recent category, with fewer nominees? Hard, frankly, to get super-passionate about that. Best Animated Short Subject? An eyebrow-raiser for sure (in a good way) but again, not something I could muster a ton of enthusiasm for.

Then, I thought...wait....just wait. What if I went back and revisited the nominations of a certain performer? That could work. And if I go that route, why not look back at the appearances of the most nominated star in Oscar history - that being the incomparable, brilliant, all-around amazing Meryl Streep? Bingo!

So, that's what I'll be doing over the coming months - venturing back to 1978, the year of Streep's very first Oscar nomination (for The Deer Hunter, of course) and reviewing all 20 categories the actress graced. Now, this won't be me just looking back at the Streep performances alone - I'm going to revisit and review her competition as well, highlight actresses inexplicably snubbed for recognition in these respective years and ultimately determine just what this living legend of the big screen really should've won in terms of Oscars.

If this project intrigues or excites you in the least, I whole-heartedly encourage you to join me in revisiting these performances - 100 overall - and offer up your own reviews in the comments section. Beyond Streep's turns, I'll be looking back at marvelous, underrated performances like Maureen Stapleton in Interiors, Marsha Mason in Only When I Laugh and Sally Kirkland in Anna; legendary ones like Shirley MacLaine in Terms of Endearment, Jessica Lange in Frances and Whoopi Goldberg in The Color Purple; and perhaps some "WTF is she doing here?" appearances too (I'm looking at you, Anne Bancroft in Agnes of God).

This should, no doubt, be heaps of fun to work on. And, depending on how much time this eats up, I may just have enough to tackle a second performer's Oscar history later this year...