3rd Annual Oscar Prediction Contest - WINNER!

Congratulations to Alex Kazhinsky, winner of the 3rd Annual Awards Connection Oscar Prediction Contest! Hope you enjoy your Fandango gift card.

Thank you again to all 79 awards season afficiandos who participated this year!

2017 Oscar Winners

At last, this year's Oscar winners!

Best Picture

Call Me by Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Director

Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Jordan Peele, Get Out
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water

Best Actress

Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Meryl Streep, The Post

Best Actor

Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.

Best Supporting Actress

Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

Best Supporting Actor

Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Original Screenplay

The Big Sick
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Adapted Screenplay

Call Me by Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Logan
Molly’s Game
Mudbound

Best Animated Feature

The Boss Baby
The Breadwinner
Coco
Ferdinand
Loving Vincent

Best Original Song

“Mighty River,” Mudbound
“Mystery of Love,” Call Me by Your Name
“Remember Me,” Coco
“Stand Up for Something,” Marshall
“This Is Me,” The Greatest Showman

Best Documentary Feature

Abacus (Small Enough to Jail)
Faces/Places
Icarus
Last Men in Aleppo
Strong Island

Best Documentary Short

“Eden and Eddie”
“Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405”
“Heroin/e”
“Knife Skills”
“Traffic Stop”

Best Foreign Language Film

A Fantastic Woman
The Insult
Loveless
On Body and Soul
The Square

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Darkest Hour
Victoria & Abdul
Wonder

Best Film Editing

Baby Driver
Dunkirk
I, Tonya
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Visual Effects

Blade Runner 2049
Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 2
Kong: Skull Island
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
War for the Planet of the Apes

Best Original Score

Dunkirk
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Production Design

Beauty and the Beast
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water

Best Cinematography

Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Mudbound
The Shape of Water

Best Costume Design

Beauty and the Beast
Darkest Hour
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Victoria & Abdul

Best Sound Editing

Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Best Sound Mixing

Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Best Live Action Short Film

“Dekalb Elementary”
“The Eleven O’Clock”
“My Nephew Emmett”
“The Silent Child”
“Watu Wote/All of Us”

Best Animated Short Film

“Dear Basketball”
“Garden Party”
“Lou”
“Negative Space”
“Revolting Rhymes”

FINAL 2017 Oscar Winner Predictions

Welp, here we go!

It legit feels like years ago that I was predicting the likes of The Current War, mother! and Wonder Wheel for Oscar nominations. Now, here we are, with that trio long out of the picture and The Shape of Water and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri (and maybe, hopefully Get Out too) poised for battle on Oscar night.

There are a bunch of categories, at least on the technical end, that I'm having a tough time projecting. Will, for instance, one of Dunkirk or The Shape of Water steamroll through the tech fields or shall they split those fortunes, perhaps with Baby Driver and/or Blade Runner 2049 taking a prize or two? Original Screenplay is looking awfully close too, with cases to be made for Get Out and Three Billboards. Oh, and the shorts are never easy to predict. (The acting fields, I'm afraid, look like a snooze.)

A key question I have is which is more detrimental to winning Best Picture - the lack of SAG Best Ensemble nomination for The Shape or Water or no Best Director Oscar nomination for Three Billboards? Stats like these, and how rare it is for a film to triumph on Oscar night without those two nominations, is why we cannot count out something like Get Out, even as it unimpeachably heads into the big night an underdog.

With that said, here's what my gut is telling me...

Best Picture

1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2. The Shape of Water
3. Get Out
4. Dunkirk
5. Lady Bird
6. Call Me by Your Name
7. The Post
8. Darkest Hour
9. Phantom Thread

Best Director

1. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
2. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
3. Jordan Peele, Get Out
4. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
5. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread

Best Actor

1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
3. Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
4. Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
5. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.

Best Actress

1. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
3. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
4. Meryl Streep, The Post
5. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya

Best Supporting Actor

1. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2. Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
3. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
4. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
5. Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Supporting Actress

1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya
2. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
3. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
4. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
5. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

Best Original Screenplay

1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2. Get Out
3. Lady Bird
4. The Shape of Water
5. The Big Sick

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Call Me by Your Name
2. Mudbound
3. Molly's Game
4. The Disaster Artist
5. Logan

Best Animated Feature

1. Coco
2. The Breadwinner
3. Loving Vincent
4. The Boss Baby
5. Ferdinand

Best Original Song

1. “Remember Me,” Coco
2. “This Is Me,” The Greatest Showman
3. “Mighty River,” Mudbound
4. “Mystery of Love,” Call Me by Your Name
5. “Stand Up for Something,” Marshall

Best Documentary Feature

1. Last Men in Aleppo
2. Faces/Places
3. Strong Island
4. Abacus (Small Enough to Jail)
5. Icarus

Best Documentary Short

1. “Eden and Eddie”
2. "Heroin/e"
3. "Traffic Stop"
4. “Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405”
5. “Knife Skills”

Best Foreign Language Film

1. A Fantastic Woman
2. Loveless
3. On Body and Soul
4. The Square
5. The Insult

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Darkest Hour
2. Wonder
3. Victoria & Abdul

Best Film Editing

1. Dunkirk
2. Baby Driver
3. The Shape of Water
4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
5. I, Tonya

Best Visual Effects

1. Blade Runner 2049
2. War for the Planet of the Apes
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
4. Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 2
5. Kong: Skull Island

Best Original Score

1. The Shape of Water
2. Phantom Thread
3. Dunkirk
4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Best Production Design

1. The Shape of Water
2. Blade Runner 2049
3. Beauty and the Beast
4. Dunkirk
5. Darkest Hour

Best Cinematography

1. Dunkirk
2. Blade Runner 2049
3. The Shape of Water
4. Mudbound
5. Darkest Hour

Best Costume Design

1. Phantom Thread
2. Beauty and the Beast
3. The Shape of Water
4. Darkest Hour
5. Victoria & Abdul

Best Sound Editing

1. Dunkirk
2. Baby Driver
3. The Shape of Water
4. Blade Runner 2049
5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Best Sound Mixing

1. Dunkirk
2. The Shape of Water
3. Baby Driver
4. Blade Runner 2049
5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Best Live Action Short Film

1. "DeKalb Elementary"
2. "The Silent Child"
3. "The Eleven O'Clock"
4. "Watu Wote/All of Us"
5. "My Nephew Emmett"

Best Animated Short Film

1. "Lou"
2. "Garden Party"
3. "Dear Basketball"
4. "Negative Space"
5. "Revolting Rhymes"

FINAL 2017 Oscar Nomination Predictions

Here we go, folks - final Oscar nomination predictions!

Since my last thoughts in December, a ton has gone down in the awards season - Golden Globes were handed out, as were BAFTA nods and nominations from the Directors, Writers and Producers Guilds of America. Next week, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will (at last!) offer its two cents on the best of cinema in 2017 and, not long after that, BAFTA and the guilds will be announcing their winners. As a reminder, this year's Oscar ceremony falls on March 4.

So, with that said, here are my final predictions. In parentheses you will see how many slots a contender has moved up or down since my December rankings. In some cases, I have eliminated a film or performer entirely.

Enjoy and, as always, feel free to comment with your own thoughts as well!

(PS: Per usual, I will again be hosting an Oscar winners prediction contest, with a Fandango gift card as grand prize. Keep an eye out for more details on that, after the nominations are announced.)

Best Picture

1. Lady Bird (-)
2. The Shape of Water (-)
3. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (+3)
4. Dunkirk (-1)
5. Get Out (-)
6. Call Me By Your Name (+1)
7. I, Tonya (+9)
8. The Post (-3)
   ---
9. Phantom Thread (+2)
10. Mudbound (-)
11. Darkest Hour (+3)
12. Wonder Woman (NEW)
13. The Big Sick (-1)
14. Coco (-3)
15. Molly's Game (NEW)

DROPPED
The Florida Project (-8)
The Disaster Artist (-4)

Best Director

1. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (-)
2. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (+5)
3. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (+1)
4. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (-2)
5. Jordan Peele, Get Out (-2)
   ---
6. Steven Spielberg, The Post (-1)
7. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me By Your Name (-1)
8. Ridley Scott, All the Money in the World (+1)
9. Dee Rees, Mudbound (+1)
10. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (NEW)

DROPPED
Sean Baker, The Florida Project (-3)

Best Lead Actor

1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (-)
2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (+1)
3. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name (-1)
4. Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out (+2)
5. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (+2)
   ---
6. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (-2)
7. Tom Hanks, The Post (-2)
8. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (-)
9. Jamie Bell, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool (NEW)
10. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (-)

DROPPED
Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes (-2)

Best Lead Actress

1. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (+1)
2. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (-1)
3. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (+2)
4. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (-1)
5. Jessica Chastain, Molly's Game (+2)
   ---
6. Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World (+3)
7. Meryl Streep, The Post (-3)
8. Annette Bening, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool (+2)
9. Judi Dench, Victoria & Abdul (-3)
10. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (-2)

Best Supporting Actor

1. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (+1)
2. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (-1)
3. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (-)
4. Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (-)
5. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (-)
   ---
6. Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World (+2)
7. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me By Your Name (-1)
8. Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name (-1)
9. Patrick Stewart, Logan (-)
10. Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes (-)

Best Supporting Actress

1. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (-)
2. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (-)
3. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (-)
4. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (-)
5. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread (+2)
   ---
6. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (-1)
7. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour (+3)
8. Hong Chau, Downsizing (-)
9. Tiffany Haddish, Girls Trip (-3)
10. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (-1)

Best Original Screenplay

1. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (-)
2. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (-)
3. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (+1)
4. Jordan Peele, Get Out (-1)
5. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (+1)
   ---
6. Steven Rogers, I, Tonya (+2)
7. Liz Hannah and Josh Singer, The Post (-2)
8. Emily V. Gordon and Kumail Nanjiani, The Big Sick (+1)
9. Sean Baker and Chris Bergoch, The Florida Project (-2)
10. Anthony McCarten, Darkest Hour (-)

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. James Ivory, Call Me By Your Name (-)
2. Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber, The Disaster Artist (+1)
3. Dee Rees and Virgil Williams, Mudbound (-1)
4. Aaron Sorkin, Molly's Game (+2)
5. Stephen Chbosky, Steve Conrad, R.J. Palacio and Jack Thorne, Wonder (-1)
   ---
6. Shrabani Basu and Lee Hall, Victoria & Abdul (-1)
7. Jason Fuchs, Allan Heinberg, William Moulton Marston and Zack Snyder, Wonder Woman (+2)
8. Scott Frank, Michael Green and James Mangold, Logan (NEW)
9. Hampton Fancher and Michael Green, Blade Runner 2049 (+1)
10. Matt Greenhalgh and Peter Turner, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool (NEW)

DROPPED
David Scarpa, All the Money in the World (-3)
Rian Johnson, Star Wars: The Last Jedi (-1)

Best Animated Feature

1. Coco (-)
2. The Breadwinner (+1)
3. Loving Vincent (-1)
4. The Girl Without Hands (-)
5. Ferdinand (+2)
   ---
6. The Lego Batman Movie (+3)
7. The Boss Baby (+1)
8. Despicable Me 3 (-3)
9. Cars 3 (-3)
10. The Big, Bad Fox and Other Tales (-)

Best Documentary Feature

1. Jane (+4)
2. Faces, Places (-1)
3. City of Ghosts (-2)
4. Last Man in Aleppo (-2)
5. L.A. 92 (-)
   ---
6. Ex Libris (+1)
7. Icarus (+1)
8. Abacus: Small Enough to Jail (-2)
9. Human Flow (NEW)
10. Chasing Coral (NEW)

DROPPED
Cries from Syria (-8)
Unrest (-1)

Best Foreign Language Film

1. In the Fade (Germany) (+1)
2. A Fantastic Woman (Chile) (-1)
3. Loveless (Russia) (+2)
4. Foxtrot (Israel) (-1)
5. The Wound (South Africa) (+3)
   ---
6. The Square (Sweden) (-)
7. On Body and Soul (Hungary) (-3)
8. Felicite (Senegal) (-1)
9. The Insult (Lebanon) (-)

Best Cinematography

1. Hoyte Van Hoytema, Dunkirk (-)
2. Roger Deakins, Blade Runner 2049 (+2)
3. Dan Laustsen, The Shape of Water (-1)
4. Rachel Morrison, Mudbound (+2)
5. Sayombhu Mukdeeprom, Call Me By Your Name (-)
   ---
6. Bruno Delbonnel, Darkest Hour (+3)
7. Janusz Kaminski, The Post (-4)
8. Ben Davis, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (-)
9. Sean Baker, The Florida Project (-2)
10. Matthew Jensen, Wonder Woman (NEW)

DROPPED
Edward Lachman, Wonderstruck (-1)

Best Costume Design

1. Mark Bridges, Phantom Thread (-)
2. Luis Sequeira, The Shape of Water (-)
3. Ellen Miojnick, The Greatest Showman (+3)
4. Jacqueline Durran, Beauty and the Beast (-)
5. Lindy Hemming, Wonder Woman (-)
   ---
6. Consolata Boyle, Victoria & Abdul (NEW)
7. Alexandra Byrne and Timothy Everest, Murder on the Orient Express (-)
8. Jacqueline Durran, Darkest Hour (NEW)
9. Ann Roth, The Post (-6)
10. Sandy Powell, Wonderstruck (-1)

DROPPED
Michael T. Boyle, Mudbound (-3)
Stacey Battat, The Beguiled (-1)

Best Film Editing

1. Lee Smith, Dunkirk (-)
2. Sidney Wolinsky, The Shape of Water (+1)
3. Jon Gregory, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (+7)
4. Gregory Plotkin, Get Out (NEW)
5. Tatiana S. Riegel, I, Tonya (-1)
   ---
6. Jonathan Amos and Paul Machliss, Baby Driver (NEW)
7. Michael Kahn, The Post (-4)
8. Joe Walker, Blade Runner 2049 (+1)
9. Nick Houy, Lady Bird (-1)
10. Mako Kamitsuna, Mudbound (-5)

DROPPED
Bob Ducsay, Star Wars: The Last Jedi (-5)
Walter Fasano, Call Me By Your Name (-1)

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

1. Anita Burger, David Malinkowski and Lucy Sibbick, Darkest Hour (-)
2. Mary Everett, Bill Myer and Teresa Vest, I, Tonya (+1)
3. Beverly Binda, Victoria & Abdul (NEW)
   ---
4. John Blake, Camille Friend and Brian Sipe, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (NEW)
5. J.D. Bowers, Megan Harkness, Alisa MacMillan and Robert A. Pandini, Wonder (-1)
6. John Blake, Camille Friend and Brian Sipe, Ghost in the Shell (NEW)
7. Christopher Allen, Pierce Austin, Alessandro Bertolazzi, Giorgio Gregorini, Jamie Kelman, Fernando Navarro, Kristen Saia and Christina Waltz, Bright (NEW)

DROPPED
Paula Fleet, Mike Hill, Shane Mahan and Jordan Samuel, The Shape of Water (-9)
Sunday English, Gary English, Nicki Ledermann, Angela Levin,Gary Martori, Jerry Popolis, Rania Ribalow, Pamela S. Westmore and Nakoya Yancey, The Greatest Showman (-6)
Paul Engelen and Jon Henry Gordon, Phantom Thread (-5)
Flora Moody and Allison Sing, Star Wars: The Last Jedi (-4)
Gloria Pasqua Casny and Joel Harlow, Logan (-3)
Alexis Continente, Carol Hemming, Dana Kalder, Jutta Russell, Chiara Ugolini and Wakana Yoshihara, Murder on the Orient Express (-2)
Jenny Shircore, Beauty and the Beast (-1)

Best Original Score

1. Alexandre Desplat, The Shape of Water (-)
2. Hans Zimmer, Dunkirk (-)
3. Jonny Greenwood, Phantom Thread (-)
4. Carter Burwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (+1)
5. Thomas Newman, Victoria & Abdul (+3)
   ---
6. John Williams, The Post (-)
7. Dario Marianelli, Darkest Hour (+3)
8. John Debney, Benj Pasek and Justin Paul, The Greatest Showman (+1)
9. John Williams, Star Wars: The Last Jedi (-2)
10. John Debney and Michael Giacchino, Coco (-6)

Best Original Song

1. "Remember Me," Coco (-)
2. "This Is Me," The Greatest Showman (-)
3. "Mighty River," Mudbound (-)
4. "Evermore," Beauty and the Beast (+1)
5. "The Crown Sleeps," The Breadwinner (NEW)
   ---
6. "Prayers for This World," Cries from Syria (-2)
7. "The Mystery of Love," Call Me By Your Name (-1)
8. "Truth to Power," An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power (+2)
9. "Just Getting Started," If You're Not in the Obit, Eat Breakfast (NEW)
10. "Stand Up for Something," Marshall (-2)

DROPPED
"Come Alive," The Greatest Showman (-4)
"There's Something Special," Despicable Me 3 (-2)

Best Production Design

1. Paul D. Austerberry, The Shape of Water (-)
2. Nathan Crowley, Dunkirk (-)
3. Dennis Gassner, Blade Runner 2049 (-)
4. Nathan Crowley, The Greatest Showman (+2)
5. Veronique Melery and Mark Tidesley, Phantom Thread (-1)
   ---
6. David J. Bomba, Mudbound (-1)
7. Aline Bonetto, Wonder Woman (+2)
8. Sarah Greenwood, Darkest Hour (+2)
9. Sarah Greenwood and Katie Spencer, Beauty and the Beast (-2)
10. Rick Heinrichs, Star Wars: The Last Jedi (-2)

Best Sound Editing

1. Richard King, Dunkirk (-)
2. Matthew Wood, Star Wars: The Last Jedi (-)
3. Nathan Robitaille, The Shape of Water (-)
4. Julian Slater, Baby Driver (-)
5. Theo Green and Mark A. Mangini, Blade Runner 2049 (+2)
   ---
6. Will Files, War for the Planet of the Apes (-1)
7. Paul Carter and Becki Ponting, The Greatest Showman (+2)
8. James Mather, Wonder Woman (-)
9. Skip Longfellow and Donald Sylvester, Logan (NEW)
10. Justin Doyle, Coco (-4)

DROPPED
Richard Hymns, The Post (-1)

Best Sound Mixing

1. Gregg Landaker, Gary Rizzo and Mark Weingarten, Dunkirk (-)
2. Christian T. Cooke, Filip Hosek and Brad Zoern, The Shape of Water (+1)
3. David Parker and Michael Semanchick, Star Wars: The Last Jedi (-1)
4. Ron Barlett, Doug Hemphill and Mac Ruth, Blade Runner 2049 (+3)
5. Tim Cavagin and Julian Slater, Baby Driver (-)
   ---
6. Tod A. Maitland, Jason Stasium and Dan White, The Greatest Showman (+4)
7. Paul Munro, Wonder Woman (+1)
8. Tim Forrest, David Husby and Alex Raguini, Logan (NEW)
9. Christopher Boyes and Michael Semanchick, Coco (-5)
10. Jonathan Gaynor, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (NEW)

DROPPED
Bill Bair, Will Files, Tom Lalley, Douglas Murray and Andy Nelson, War for the Planet of the Apes (-5)
Gary Rydstrom,The Post (-1)

Best Visual Effects

1. Richard Bain, Ben Morris and Michael Mulholland, Star Wars: The Last Jedi (-)
2. Richard Clegg, Paul Lambert, Victor Muller and John Nelson, Blade Runner 2049 (-)
3. Dennis Berardi and Kristen Bligh, The Shape of Water (-)
4. Andrew Jackson, Andrew Lockley and Tim McGovern, Dunkirk (-)
5. Ryan Cook, Dan Lemmon, Joe Letteri and Erik Winquist, War for the Planet of the Apes (-2)
   ---
6. Francois Dumoulin, Martin Hill, Marc Jouveneau and Joe Letteri, Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets (+4)
7. Jonathan Fawkner, Dan Sudick, Christopher Townsend and Guy Williams, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (NEW)
8. David Bowman, Vincent Cirelli, Neil Corbould, Ferran Domenech and Marcus Dryden, Alien: Covenant (NEW)
9. Erik-Jan De Boer and Leo Jeon Hyoung, Okja (NEW)
10. Aara Khanikian, Alexandre Lafortune, Stephen Rosenbaum, Robert Weaver and Jeff White, Kong: Skull Island (NEW)

DROPPED
Frazer Churchill, Viktor Muller, Jessica Norman and Bill Westenhofer, Wonder Woman (-6)
Berj Bannayan, Martyn Culpitt and Chas Jarrett, Logan (-5)
Vincent Cirelli, Jake Morrison, Brendan Seals, Alexis Wajsbrot and Chad Wiebe,Thor: Ragnarok (-3)
Kyle McCulloch, David Piombino, Kelly Port and Glen Pratt, Beauty and the Beast (-1)

2017 Oscar Nomination Predictions (December)

Time for another update, awards fans!

It has been a dizzying month since my November predictions, with game-changing Golden Globe and SAG nominations, plus a plethora of critics awards announcing their favorites of the year. Some wannabe-contenders, like Detroit, Last Flag Flying and Wonder Wheel, fell flat on their faces, while the likes of Call Me By Your Name, Get Out and Lady Bird have reaped much of the precursors love thus far.

Little, however, is truly set in stone when it comes to this year's Oscar nominations - so much can happen between now and January 5 (when AMPAS nominating opens to members), let alone Oscar nominations morning on January 23.

With that said, check out below my latest Oscar predictions, for the month of December. In parentheses you will find how many slots a contender has moved up or down since my November rankings. In a number of cases, I have eliminated a film or performer entirely. I will do one more, final set of predictions in January.

Have fun reading and, as always, feel free to comment with your own thoughts too!

Best Picture

1. Lady Bird (+9)
2. The Shape of Water (-)
3. Dunkirk (-2)
4. The Post (-)
5. Get Out (+7)
6. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (-3)
7. Call Me By Your Name (-1)
8. The Florida Project (+3)
9. Mudbound (-1)
   ---
10. Phantom Thread (-3)
11. Coco (NEW)
12. The Big Sick (+3)
13. The Disaster Artist (-)
14. Darkest Hour (-9)
15. I, Tonya (-6)

DROPPED
Victoria & Abdul (-2)

Best Director

1. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (-)
2. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (+9)
3. Jordan Peele, Get Out (NEW)
4. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk (-2)
5. Steven Spielberg, The Post (-2)
   ---
6. Luca Guadagnino, Call Me By Your Name (+2)
7. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (-3)
8. Sean Baker, The Florida Project (NEW)
9. Ridley Scott, All the Money in the World (NEW)
10. Dee Rees, Mudbound (-3)

DROPPED
Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (-6)
Joe Wright, Darkest Hour (-5)
Craig Gillespie, I, Tonya (-2)

Best Lead Actor

1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour (-)
2. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name (+1)
3. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread (-1)
4. James Franco, The Disaster Artist (+2)
5. Tom Hanks, The Post (-)
   ---
6. Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out (NEW)
7. Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq. (+3)
8. Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman (NEW)
9. Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes (NEW)
10. Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger (-6)

DROPPED
Andrew Garfield, Breathe (-3)
Steve Carell, Last Flag Flying (-2)

Best Lead Actress

1. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird (+5)
2. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (-1)
3. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water (-1)
4. Meryl Streep, The Post (-1)
5. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya (-1)
   ---
6. Judi Dench, Victoria & Abdul (-1)
7. Jessica Chastain, Molly's Game (-1)
8. Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes (+2)
9. Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World (NEW)
10. Annette Bening, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool (-2)

DROPPED
Daniela Vega, A Fantastic Woman (-2)

Best Supporting Actor

1. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project (-)
2. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (-)
3. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water (+7)
4. Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (-)
5. Michael Shannon, The Shape of Water (-)
   ---
6. Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me By Your Name (-3)
7. Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name (-1)
8. Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World (NEW)
9. Patrick Stewart, Logan (NEW)
10. Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes (NEW)

DROPPED
Bryan Cranston, Last Flag Flying (-4)
Jason Mitchell, Mudbound (-3)
Ben Mendelsohn, Darkest Hour (-2)

Best Supporting Actress

1. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird (+1)
2. Allison Janney, I, Tonya (-1)
3. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (+1)
4. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick (+3)
5. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (NEW)
   ---
6. Tiffany Haddish, Girls Trip (+2)
7. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread (-1)
8. Hong Chau, Downsizing (+1)
9. Melissa Leo, Novitiate (-6)
10. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour (-5)

DROPPED
Tatiana Maslany, Stronger (-1)

Best Original Screenplay

1. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird (+5)
2. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (-1)
3. Jordan Peele, Get Out (+5)
4. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water (-1)
5. Liz Hannah and Josh Singer, The Post (-1)
   ---
6. Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread (-1)
7. Sean Baker and Chris Bergoch, The Florida Project (-)
8. Steven Rogers, I, Tonya (+2)
9. Emily V. Gordon and Kumail Nanjiani, The Big Sick (-)
10. Anthony McCarten, Darkest Hour (-8)

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. James Ivory, Call Me By Your Name (-)
2. Dee Rees and Virgil Williams, Mudbound (-)
3. Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber, The Disaster Artist (-)
4. Stephen Chbosky, Steve Conrad, R.J. Palacio and Jack Thorne, Wonder (NEW)
5. Shrabani Basu and Lee Hall, Victoria & Abdul (-)
   ---
6. Aaron Sorkin, Molly's Game (+1)
7. Rian Johnson, Star Wars: The Last Jedi (NEW)
8. David Scarpa, All the Money in the World (NEW)
9. Jason Fuchs, Allan Heinberg, William Moulton Marston and Zack Snyder, Wonder Woman (+1)
10. Hampton Fancher and Michael Green, Blade Runner 2049 (NEW)

DROPPED
Angelina Jolie and Loung Ung, First They Killed My Father (-7)
Richard Linklater and Darryl Ponicsan, Last Flag Flying (-5)
Sofia Coppola, The Beguiled (-3)
John Pollono, Stronger (-2)

Best Animated Feature

1. Coco (-)
2. Loving Vincent (-)
3. The Breadwinner (-)
4. The Girl Without Hands (-)
5. Despicable Me 3 (+2)
   ---
6. Cars 3 (-1)
7. Ferdinand (+1)
8. The Boss Baby (NEW)
9. The Lego Batman Movie (-3)
10. The Big, Bad Fox and Other Tales (-)

DROPPED
Mary and the Witch's Flower (-2)

Best Documentary Feature

1. Faces, Places (-)
2. City of Ghosts (-)
3. Last Man in Aleppo (NEW)
4. Cries from Syria (+2)
5. Jane (NEW)
   ---
6. L.A. 92 (+1)
7. Abacus: Small Enough to Jail (+3)
8. Ex Libris (-5)
9. Icarus (NEW)
10. Unrest (NEW)

DROPPED
Hell on Earth (-7)
Risk (-5)
Joan Didion: The Center Will Not Hold (-3)
The Life and Death of Marsha P. Johnson (-2)

Best Foreign Language Film

1. A Fantastic Woman (Chile) (+1)
2. In the Fade (Germany) (+4)
3. Foxtrot (Israel) (+7)
4. On Body and Soul (Hungary) (NEW)
5. Loveless (Russia) (NEW)
   ---
6. The Square (Sweden) (+2)
7. Felicite (Senegal) (NEW)
8. The Wound (South Africa) (NEW)
9. The Insult (Lebanon) (NEW)

DROPPED
First They Killed My Father (Cambodia) (-10)
A Letter to the President (Afghanistan) (-8)
Her Love Boils Bathwater (Japan) (-7)
A Taxi Driver (South Korea) (-6)
BPM (Beats Per Minute) (France) (-4)
Summer 1993 (Spain) (-2)

Best Cinematography

1. Hoyte Van Hoytema, Dunkirk (-)
2. Dan Laustsen, The Shape of Water (+1)
3. Janusz Kaminski, The Post (+3)
4. Roger Deakins, Blade Runner 2049 (-2)
5. Sayombhu Mukdeeprom, Call Me By Your Name (+2)
   ---
6. Rachel Morrison, Mudbound (+3)
7. Sean Baker, The Florida Project (NEW)
8. Ben Davis, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (NEW)
9. Bruno Delbonnel, Darkest Hour (-5)
10. Edward Lachman, Wonderstruck (-)

DROPPED
Vittorio Storaro, Wonder Wheel (-3)

Best Costume Design

1. Mark Bridges, Phantom Thread (-)
2. Luis Sequeira, The Shape of Water (NEW)
3. Ann Roth, The Post (+6)
4. Jacqueline Durran, Beauty and the Beast (-)
5. Lindy Hemming, Wonder Woman (+3)
   ---
6. Ellen Miojnick, The Greatest Showman (-3)
7. Alexandra Byrne and Timothy Everest, Murder on the Orient Express (-)
8. Michael T. Boyle, Mudbound (NEW)
9. Sandy Powell, Wonderstruck (-3)
10. Stacey Battat, The Beguiled (-)

DROPPED
Jacqueline Durran, Darkest Hour (-9)
Consolata Boyle, Victoria & Abdul (-6)

Best Film Editing

1. Lee Smith, Dunkirk (-)
2. Michael Kahn, The Post (+2)
3. Sidney Wolinsky, The Shape of Water (-1)
4. Tatiana S. Riegel, I, Tonya (+4)
5. Mako Kamitsuna, Mudbound (NEW)
   ---
6. Bob Ducsay, Star Wars: The Last Jedi (-)
7. Nick Houy, Lady Bird (NEW)
8. Joe Walker, Blade Runner 2049 (+1)
9. Walter Fasano, Call Me By Your Name (+1)
10. Jon Gregory, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (-7)

DROPPED
Valerio Bonelli, Darkest Hour (-6)
William Hoy and Stan Salfas, War for the Planet of the Apes (-4)

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

1. Anita Burger, David Malinkowski and Lucy Sibbick, Darkest Hour (-)
2. Paula Fleet, Mike Hill, Shane Mahan and Jordan Samuel, The Shape of Water (-)
3. Mary Everett, Bill Myer and Teresa Vest, I, Tonya (+2)
   ---
4. J.D. Bowers, Megan Harkness, Alisa MacMillan and Robert A. Pandini, Wonder (NEW)
5. Sunday English, Gary English, Nicki Ledermann, Angela Levin,Gary Martori, Jerry Popolis, Rania Ribalow, Pamela S. Westmore and Nakoya Yancey, The Greatest Showman (-2)
6. Paul Engelen and Jon Henry Gordon, Phantom Thread (+2)
7. Flora Moody and Allison Sing, Star Wars: The Last Jedi (-3)
8. Gloria Pasqua Casny and Joel Harlow, Logan (NEW)
9. Alexis Continente, Carol Hemming, Dana Kalder, Jutta Russell, Chiara Ugolini and Wakana Yoshihara, Murder on the Orient Express (-3)
10. Jenny Shircore, Beauty and the Beast (-1)

DROPPED
Donald Mowat and Kerry Warn, Blade Runner 2049 (-4)
Sarah Craig, Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram, Debra Manou, Emily O'Quinn and Sean Sansom, It (-1)

Best Original Score

1. Alexandre Desplat, The Shape of Water (-)
2. Hans Zimmer, Dunkirk (+2)
3. Jonny Greenwood, Phantom Thread (+4)
4. Michael Giacchino, Coco (+4)
5. Carter Burwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (+1)
   ---
6. John Williams, The Post (NEW)
7. John Williams, Star Wars: The Last Jedi (-4)
8. Thomas Newman, Victoria & Abdul (-3)
9. John Debney, Benj Pasek and Justin Paul, The Greatest Showman (-)
10. Dario Marianelli, Darkest Hour (-8)

DROPPED
Hans Zimmer, Blade Runner 2049 (-1)

Best Original Song (my first stab at this!)

1. "Remember Me," Coco
2. "This Is Me," The Greatest Showman
3. "Mighty River," Mudbound
4. "Prayers for This World," Cries from Syria
5. "Evermore," Beauty and the Beast
   ---
6. "The Mystery of Love," Call Me By Your Name
7. "Come Alive," The Greatest Showman
8. "Stand Up for Something," Marshall
9. "There's Something Special," Despicable Me 3
10. "Truth to Power," An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power

Best Production Design

1. Paul D. Austerberry, The Shape of Water (+1)
2. Nathan Crowley, Dunkirk (-1)
3. Dennis Gassner, Blade Runner 2049 (-)
4. Veronique Melery and Mark Tidesley, Phantom Thread (+2)
5. David J. Bomba, Mudbound (+2)
   ---
6. Nathan Crowley, The Greatest Showman (-)
7. Sarah Greenwood and Katie Spencer, Beauty and the Beast (+3)
8. Rick Heinrichs, Star Wars: The Last Jedi (+1)
9. Aline Bonetto, Wonder Woman (-1)
10. Sarah Greenwood, Darkest Hour (-6)

Best Sound Editing

1. Richard King, Dunkirk (-)
2. Matthew Wood, Star Wars: The Last Jedi (-)
3. Nathan Robitaille, The Shape of Water (-)
4. Julian Slater, Baby Driver (-)
5. Will Files, War for the Planet of the Apes (-)
   ---
6. Justin Doyle, Coco (+2)
7. Theo Green and Mark A. Mangini, Blade Runner 2049 (-1)
8. James Mather, Wonder Woman (+1)
9. Paul Carter and Becki Ponting, The Greatest Showman (-2)
10. Richard Hymns, The Post (-)

Best Sound Mixing

1. Gregg Landaker, Gary Rizzo and Mark Weingarten, Dunkirk (-)
2. David Parker and Michael Semanchick, Star Wars: The Last Jedi (-)
3. Christian T. Cooke, Filip Hosek and Brad Zoern, The Shape of Water (-)
4. Christopher Boyes and Michael Semanchick, Coco (+1)
5. Tim Cavagin and Julian Slater, Baby Driver (+5)
   ---
6. Bill Bair, Will Files, Tom Lalley, Douglas Murray and Andy Nelson, War for the Planet of the Apes (-2)
7. Ron Barlett, Doug Hemphill and Mac Ruth, Blade Runner 2049 (-1)
8. Paul Munro, Wonder Woman (+1)
9. Tod A. Maitland, Jason Stasium and Dan White, The Greatest Showman (-1)
10. Gary Rydstrom,The Post (-3)

Best Visual Effects

1. Richard Bain, Ben Morris and Michael Mulholland, Star Wars: The Last Jedi (-)
2. Richard Clegg, Paul Lambert, Victor Muller and John Nelson, Blade Runner 2049 (-)
3. Dennis Berardi and Kristen Bligh, The Shape of Water (+1)
4. Andrew Jackson, Andrew Lockley and Tim McGovern, Dunkirk (+2)
5. Ryan Cook, Dan Lemmon, Joe Letteri and Erik Winquist, War for the Planet of the Apes (-2)
   ---
6. Vincent Cirelli, Jake Morrison, Brendan Seals, Alexis Wajsbrot and Chad Wiebe,Thor: Ragnarok (-1)
7. Frazer Churchill, Viktor Muller, Jessica Norman and Bill Westenhofer, Wonder Woman (-)
8. Berj Bannayan, Martyn Culpitt and Chas Jarrett, Logan (NEW)
9. Kyle McCulloch, David Piombino, Kelly Port and Glen Pratt, Beauty and the Beast (-1)
10. Francois Dumoulin, Martin Hill, Marc Jouveneau and Joe Letteri, Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets (NEW)

DROPPED
Dan Bethell, Theodore Bialek, Vincent Cirelli, Lou Pecora and Doug Spilatro, Spider-Man: Homecoming (-2)
Matthew Crnich, Ray McMaster, Kevin Andrew Smith, Doug Spilatro and Christopher Townsend, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (-1)