FINAL 2019 Oscar Winner Predictions

For the utter lack of excitement present in this year’s acting races - look, I hate to use the l-word but Renee Zellweger, Joaquin Phoenix, Laura Dern and Brad Pitt are as close to legit locks as you’ll get - there remains a great deal of suspense as we enter Oscar night, including, and perhaps most of all, in Best Picture.

Though 1917 seems to be peaking at just the right time with those key BAFTA, PGA and DGA victories, I still see the top showdown as a virtual jump ball among it, Parasite and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, with Jojo Rabbit, which has picked up some guilds steam as of late, and Joker, the nominations leader, not entirely down for the count.

What nudges me in Parasite’s direction is that SAG win - which, I have to admit, I didn’t expect. That victory wholeheartedly makes up for the lack of an acting Oscar nomination and, coupled with essential showings in Film Editing and Production Design here, strikes me as indicative that just enough industry support for the picture exists for it to go all the way, even if it fails to win much down the ballot. (I have Parasite scoring its lone other victory in International Feature.)

Sam Mendes looks to be in solid shape for his second career Oscar - a surprise loss, however, would surely doom 1917 for the top prize. While I can picture a Parasite/Mendes or Once Upon a Time in Hollywood/Mendes split, I cannot see 1917 prevailing in Best Picture without its director triumphing as well. And, should Bong Joon-ho or Quentin Tarantino score the upset in Director, you better believe their film is making it across the finish line up top.

The writing categories remain exciting too, with Adapted Screenplay having three viable candidates in the running (this could be where The Irishman saves itself from a shutout, though I’m inclined not to predict it) and Tarantino in nearly as sturdy a position in Original Screenplay as Mendes is in Director - the front-runner but not an invincible one. A Parasite victory there would likely seal the deal for Picture and Marriage Story, once upon a time a more formidable awards season contender than it ultimately turned out to be, perhaps still has a sliver of a chance.

Further down the ballot, there aren’t many shoo-ins to be found, sans Parasite in International Feature and perhaps Bombshell in Makeup & Hairstyling. Ford v Ferrari, despite being hopeless in Picture, could triumph on its other three nominations, including Film Editing, and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood may flourish or flounder - there really is a possibility, albeit a slight one, that only Pitt walks away with an Oscar for the film.

And let’s not forget what I consider one of the evening’s most wide-open affairs - Original Song.

Elton John initially seemed a sure thing - that is, until Rocketman otherwise flatlined on nominations morning, with the new John tune its lone recognition. Voters also don’t seem terribly keen on Frozen II, which somehow missed in Animated Feature. Randy Newman managed to prevail in this category for an even more forgettable song with Toy Story 3, Cynthia Erivo could EGOT by triumphing with her Harriet song and yes, Diane Warren, the Glenn Close/Thelma Ritter of Original Song, is on her 11th nomination without a win. All circumstances considered, I actually like her chances, even if Breakthrough is…decidedly not an Oscar-caliber production.

All that said, here they are, folks - my final predictions in this exceedingly dizzying awards season…

Best Picture

1. Parasite

2. 1917

3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

4. Jojo Rabbit

5. Joker

6. Little Women

7. The Irishman

8. Marriage Story

9. Ford v Ferrari

Best Director

1. Sam Mendes, 1917

2. Bong Joon-ho, Parasite

3. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

4. Todd Phillips, Joker

5. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman

Best Actress

1. Renee Zellweger, Judy

2. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story

3. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women

4. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet

5. Charlize Theron, Bombshell

Best Actor

1. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker

2. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory

3. Adam Driver, Marriage Story

4. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes

5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Best Supporting Actress

1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story

2. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit

3. Florence Pugh, Little Women

4. Margot Robbie, Bombshell

5. Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell

Best Supporting Actor

1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

2. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

3. Joe Pesci, The Irishman

4. Al Pacino, The Irishman

5. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes

Best Original Screenplay

1. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

2. Bong Joon-ho and Han Jin-won, Parasite

3. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story

4. Sam Mendes and Krysty Wilson-Cairns, 1917

5. Rian Johnson, Knives Out

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit

2. Greta Gerwig, Little Women

3. Steven Zaillian, The Irishman

4. Todd Phillips and Scott Silver, Joker

5. Anthony McCarten, The Two Popes

Best Animated Feature

1. Toy Story 4

2. Missing Link

3. Klaus

4. I Lost My Body

5. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World

Best Documentary Feature

1. American Factory

2. Honeyland

3. For Sama

4. The Edge of Democracy

5. The Cave

Best International Feature

1. Parasite (South Korea)

2. Pain and Glory (Spain)

3. Honeyland (North Macedonia)

4. Les Miserables (France)

5. Corpus Christi (Poland)

Best Animated Short Film

1. Memorable

2. Hair Love

3. Kitbull

4. Daughter

5. Sister

Best Documentary Short Subject

1. St. Louis Superman

2. Walk Run Cha-Cha

3. Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You're a Girl)

4. Life Overtakes Me

5. In the Absence

Best Live Action Short Film

1. The Neighbors’ Window

2. Brotherhood

3. Saria

4. Nefta Football Club

5. A Sister

Best Cinematography

1. Roger Deakins, 1917

2. Robert Richardson, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

3. Rodrigo Prieto, The Irishman

4. Jarin Blaschke, The Lighthouse

5. Lawrence Sher, Joker

Best Costume Design

1. Arianne Phillips, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

2. Mayes C. Rubeo, Jojo Rabbit

3. Jacqueline Durran, Little Women

4. Sandy Powell and Christopher Peterson, The Irishman

5. Mark Bridges, Joker

Best Film Editing

1. Andrew Buckland and Michael McCusker, Ford v Ferrari

2. Yang Jin-mo, Parasite

3. Thelma Schoonmaker, The Irishman

4. Jeff Groth, Joker

5. Tom Eagles, Jojo Rabbit

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

1. Kazu Hiro, Anne Morgan, and Vivian Baker, Bombshell

2. Jeremy Woodhead, Judy

3. Nicki Ledermann and Kay Georgiou, Joker

4. Paul Gooch, Arjen Tuiten, and David White, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil

5. Naomi Donne, Tristan Versluis, and Rebecca Cole, 1917

Best Original Score

1. Hildur Guðnadóttir, Joker

2. Thomas Newman, 1917

3. John Williams, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

4. Alexandre Desplat, Little Women

5. Randy Newman, Marriage Story

Best Original Song

1. “I’m Standing with You,” Breakthrough

2. “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again,” Rocketman

3. “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away,” Toy Story 4

4. “Stand Up,” Harriet

5. “Into the Unknown,” Frozen II

Best Production Design

1. Barbara Ling and Nancy Haigh, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

2. Dennis Gassner and Lee Sandales, 1917

3. Lee Ha-jun and Cho Won-woo, Parasite

4. Ra Vincent and Nora Sopková, Jojo Rabbit

5. Bob Shaw and Regina Graves, The Irishman

Best Sound Editing

1. Donald Sylvester, Ford v Ferrari

2. Oliver Tarney and Rachael Tate, 1917

3. Alan Robert Murray, Joker

4. Wylie Stateman, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

5. Matthew Wood and David Acord, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Best Sound Mixing

1. Mark Taylor and Stuart Wilson, 1917

2. Paul Massey, David Giammarco, and Steven A. Morrow, Ford v Ferrari

3. Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic and Tod Maitland, Joker

4. Michael Minkler, Christian P. Minkler, and Mark Ulano, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

5. Gary Rydstrom, Tom Johnson and Mark Ulano, Ad Astra

Best Visual Effects

1. Guillaume Rocheron, Greg Butler, and Dominic Tuohy, 1917

2. Dan DeLeeuw, Matt Aitken, Russell Earl, and Dan Sudick, Avengers: Endgame

3. Pablo Helman, Leandro Estebecorena, Stephane Grabli, and Nelson Sepulveda, The Irishman

4. Robert Legato, Adam Valdez, Andrew R. Jones, and Elliot Newman, The Lion King

5. Roger Guyett, Neal Scanlan, Patrick Tubach, and Dominic Tuohy, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker