2022 Oscar Nomination Predictions (October)

Oh, hey!

It’s been a tad short of a month since I assembled my first Oscar nom predictions of the season. At this point, the Venice, Telluride and Toronto Film Festivals are behind us, with New York doing its thing as I compose this. A plethora of pictures have seen the light of day, with many impressing and others falling short of expectations (hi, The Son).

Key remaining question marks include Babylon, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and She Said, all of which ring of formidable contenders for Best Picture noms. And then there’s the question of category placement, with Babylon’s Margot Robbie and She Said’s Carey Mulligan & Zoe Kazan seemingly poised for Lead Actress bids but not out of the question for Supporting pushes.

Speaking of Lead vs. Supporting, a development that nicely shook things up was the surprise news that Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans) would join the race in Lead Actress, as opposed to contending over in Supporting - where, pundits presume, she’d have had an easier time prevailing. And perhaps there is some truth there but you know what’s also true? Williams can undoubtedly triumph in Lead.

It remains super early in the season, no doubt, but The Fabelmans looks poised for both critical and commercial success - and Williams, about to be on her fifth Oscar bid without a win, has earned exceedingly glowing praise. Regarding category placement, there is hardly a lack of precedent when it comes to turns on the fence between Lead and Supporting emerging triumphant. Louise Fletcher (One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest), Nicole Kidman (The Hours), Frances McDormand (Fargo), Patricia Neal (Hud) - all Best Actress winners without heaps of screen time. Williams can for sure do the same.

Anyway, below are my updated Oscar nom predictions for the month of October, this time including Animated/Documentary/International Feature, plus the technical fields (I’ll hold off on the Shorts ‘til later in the season). Among the top eight, I note how many spots a contender has moved up or down since my first set of hunches. I’ll do another revision on these sometime in November.

Take care! :)

Best Picture

1. The Fabelmans (-)

2. Babylon (-)

3. The Banshees of Inisherin (-)

4. Everything Everywhere All at Once (+2)

5. Top Gun: Maverick (+2)

6. Women Talking (+2)

7. Avatar: The Way of Water (+2)

8. Elvis (+7)

9. She Said (-5)

10. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (-1)
    —

11. The Whale (-)

12. TÁR (-)

13. Triangle of Sadness (+1)

14. Till (NEW)

15. Decision to Leave (-2)

DROPPED
Armageddon Time (-11)

Best Director

1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (-)

2. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (-)

3. Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness (+4)

4. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (-1)

5. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (-)
   —

6. Darren Aronofsky, The Whale (+2)

7. Todd Field, TÁR (NEW)

8. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (+1)

9. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (+1)

10. Maria Schrader, She Said (-6)

DROPPED
James Gray, Armageddon Time (-5)

Best Actress

1. Cate Blanchett, TÁR (-)

2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (-)

3. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (NEW)

4. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (+6)

5. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (-)
   —

6. Viola Davis, The Woman King (-)

7. Margot Robbie, Babylon (-4)

8. Carey Mulligan, She Said (-4)

9. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (-1)

10. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (-3)

DROPPED
Zoe Kazan, She Said (-2)

Best Actor

1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (-)

2. Austin Butler, Elvis (+1)

3. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (-1)

4. Bill Nighy, Living (+1)

5. Hugh Jackman, The Son (-1)
   —

6. Adam Driver, White Noise (-)

7. Song Kang-ho, Broker (+2)

8. Diego Calva, Babylon (-1)

9. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (-1)

10. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection (-)

Best Supporting Actress

1. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (+1)

2. Hong Chau, The Whale (+2)

3. Jean Smart, Babylon (-)

4. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (+4)

5. Samantha Morton, She Said (-)
   —

6. Dolly de Leon, Triangle of Sadness (NEW)

7. Claire Foy, Women Talking (-1)

8. Sadie Sink, The Whale (-1)

9. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (+1)

10. Laura Dern, The Son (-1)

DROPPED
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (-10)

Best Supporting Actor

1. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (-)

2. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (-)

3. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (+3)

4. Anthony Hopkins, Armageddon Time (-)

5. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (-)
   —

6. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (+1)

7. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (NEW)

8. Brad Pitt, Babylon (-5)

9. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (-1)

10. Jeremy Strong, Armageddon Time (-1)

DROPPED
Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway (-1)

Best Original Screenplay

1. Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner, The Fabelmans (-)

2. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (-)

3. Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness (+4)

4. Jeong Seo-kyeong and Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (-)

5. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (-2)
   —

6. James Gray, Armageddon Time (-1)

7. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (-1)

8. Todd Field, TÁR (+1)

9. Charlotte Wells, Aftersun (NEW)

10. Sam Mendes, Empire of Light (-)

DROPPED
Billy Eichner and Nicholas Stoller, Bros (-3)

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (-)

2. Noah Baumbach, White Noise (-)

3. Rian Johnson, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (-)

4. Kazuo Ishiguro, Living (+1)

5. Rebecca Lenkiewicz, She Said (-1)
   —

6. Samuel D. Hunter, The Whale (-)

7. Chinonye Chukwu, Michael Reilly and Keith Beauchamp, Till (NEW)

8. Ryan Coogler and Joe Robert Cole, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (-)

9. Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Singer, Christopher McQuarrie, Top Gun: Maverick (NEW)

10. Ian Stokell, Lesley Paterson and Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (-)

DROPPED
Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller, The Son (-4)
Audrey Diwan, Marcia Romano and Anne Berest, Happening (-2)

Best Animated Feature

1. Turning Red

2. Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio

3. Strange World

4. Marcel the Shell with Shoes on

5. The Bad Guys
   —

6. Wendell & Wild

7. The Sea Beast

8. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

9. Minions: The Rise of Gru

10. My Father’s Dragon

Best Documentary Feature

1. Descendant

2. Fire of Love

3. Good Night Oppy

4. The Territory

5. Black Ice
   —

6. Aftershock

7. Navalny

8. Retrograde

9. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

10. Sr.

Best International Feature

1. Decision to Leave (Korea)

2. All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)

3. Bardo (Mexico)

4. Klondike (Ukraine)

5. Close (Belgium)
   —

6. Holy Spider (Denmark)

7. Boy from Heaven (Sweden)

8. Cinema Sabaya (Israel)

9. Saint Omer (France)

10. Corsage (Austria)

Best Cinematography

1. Janusz Kaminski, The Fabelmans

2. Roger Deakins, Empire of Light

3. Linus Sandgren, Babylon

4. Russell Carpenter, Avatar: The Way of Water

5. James Friend, All Quiet on the Western Front
   —

6. Mandy Walker, Elvis

7. Claudio Miranda, Top Gun: Maverick

8. Darius Khondji, Bardo

9. Chayse Irvin, Blonde

10. Florian Hoffmeister, TÁR

Best Costume Design

1. Ruth E. Carter, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

2. Mary Zophres, Babylon

3. Catherine Martin, Elvis

4. Gersha Phillips, The Woman King

5. Monika Buttinger, Corsage
   —

6. Jenny Beavan, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

7. Shirley Kurata, Everything Everywhere All At Once

8. Mark Bridges, The Fabelmans

9. Jennifer Johnson, Blonde

10. Oliver Garcia, Chevalier

Best Film Editing

1. Eddie Hamilton, Top Gun: Maverick

2. Paul Rogers, Everything Everywhere All at Once

3. Sarah Broshar and Michael Kahn, The Fabelmans

4. David Brenner, James Cameron, John Refouaa and Stephen E. Rivkin, Avatar: The Way of Water

5. Tom Cross, Babylon
   —

6. Matt Villa and Jonathan Redmond‎, Elvis

7. Monika Willi, TÁR

8. Michael P. Shawver, Kelley Dixon and Jennifer Lame, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

9. Sven Budelmann, All Quiet on the Western Front

10. Bob Ducsay, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Story

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

1. The team from The Whale

2. The team from Elvis

3. The team from Babylon

4. The team from The Batman

5. The team from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
   —

6. The team from The Woman King

7. The team from Blonde

8. The team from The Northman

9. The team from Everything Everywhere All at Once

10. The team from Amsterdam

Best Original Score

1. John Williams, The Fabelmans

2. Hildur Guðnadóttir, TÁR

3. Justin Hurwitz, Babylon

4. Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, Empire of Light

5. Alexandre Desplat, Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio
   —

6. Carter Burwell, The Banshees of Inisherin

7. Ludwig Göransson, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

8. Terence Blanchard, The Woman King

9. Son Lux, Everything Everywhere All at Once

10. Simon Franglen, Avatar: The Way of Water

Best Original Song

1. “Hold My Hand,” Top Gun: Maverick

2. “Applause,” Tell It Like a Woman

3. “Dust and Ash,” The Voice of Dust and Ash

4. “Naatu Naatu,” RRR

5. “This Is a Life,” Everything Everywhere All at Once
   —

6. “Nobody Like U,” Turning Red

7. “(You Made It Feel Like) Home,” Bones and All

8. “At the Automat,” The Automat

9. “New Body Rhumba,” White Noise

10. “Carolina,” Where the Crawdads Sing

Best Production Design

1. Catherine Martin, Karen Murphy and Beverley Dunn, Elvis

2. Florencia Martin and Anthony Carlino, Babylon

3. Dylan Cole, Ben Procter and Vanessa Cole, Avatar: The Way of Water

4. Rick Carter and Karen O’Hara, The Fabelmans

5. Hannah Beachler and Lisa K. Sessions, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
   —

6. Jason Kisvarday and Kelsi Ephraim, Everything Everywhere All at Once

7. Rick Heinrichs, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

8. Eugenio Caballero, Bardo

9. Christian M. Goldbeck, All Quiet on the Western Front

10. Akin McKenzie, The Woman King

Best Sound

1. The team from Top Gun: Maverick

2. The team from Elvis

3. The team from Avatar: The Way of Water

4. The team from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

5. The team from All Quiet on the Western Front
   —

6. The team from Everything Everywhere All at Once

7. The team from Babylon

8. The team from TÁR

9. The team from The Batman

10. The team from Nope

Best Visual Effects

1. The team from Avatar: The Way of Water

2. The team from Top Gun: Maverick

3. The team from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

4. The team from Everything Everywhere All at Once

5. The team from Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio
   —

6. The team from RRR

7. The team from Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness

8. The team from The Batman

9. The team from Good Night Oppy

10. The team from Nope