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Final Oscar noms hunch - with 14, Sinners ties All About Eve, La La Land and Titanic for the all-time record.

FINAL 2025 Oscar Nomination Predictions

January 16, 2026 by Andrew Carden in Oscars

Here we go…

Final Oscar nom predictions for the season! Per usual, my rankings highlight how many slots a contender has moved up or down since my last set of hunches.

If there is a dominant headline, it has to be that Sinners is so close to shattering the all-time nominations record. With 14, the number I suspect it ultimately nets, it ties the record but I have it sixth in both Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress, ditto Original Song (for a second bid there). Any one of those will send it over the top. (Odd as it sounds, I fear the most vulnerable of those 14 may be Lead Actor, where Michael B. Jordan, Joel Edgerton and perhaps Jesse Plemons are competitive for the fifth spot.)

Best Picture

  1. One Battle After Another (-)

  2. Hamnet (-)

  3. Sinners (+1)

  4. Marty Supreme (-1)

  5. Frankenstein (+3)

  6. Sentimental Value (-)

  7. The Secret Agent (-)

  8. Bugonia (+6)

  9. It Was Just an Accident (-4)

  10. Train Dreams (-1)
    —

  11. Weapons (-)

  12. F1 (NEW)

  13. Sirāt (-)

  14. Wicked: For Good (-2)

  15. Song Sung Blue (NEW)

DROPPED
No Other Choice (-6)
Jay Kelly (-1)

Best Director

  1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (-)

  2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (+4)

  3. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (-1)

  4. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (-)

  5. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (-)
    —

  6. Jafar Panah, It Was Just an Accident (-3)

  7. Kleber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (-)

  8. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (-)

  9. Oliver Laxe, Sirāt (+1)

  10. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (NEW)

DROPPED
Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (-1)

Best Actress

  1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (-)

  2. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (-)

  3. Emma Stone, Bugonia (+1)

  4. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (-1)

  5. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (+2)
    —

  6. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (-1)

  7. Jennifer Lawrence, Die My Love (+2)

  8. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (-2)

  9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (+1)

  10. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (-2)

Best Actor

  1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (+1)

  2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (-1)

  3. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (-)

  4. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (-)

  5. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (+1)
    —

  6. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (-1)

  7. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (NEW)

  8. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (-1)

  9. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein (+1)

  10. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (-2)

DROPPED
Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (-2)

Best Supporting Actress

  1. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (-)

  2. Amy Madigan, Weapons (-)

  3. Odessa A'zion, Marty Supreme (+1)

  4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value (+1)

  5. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (-2)
    —

  6. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (+1)

  7. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (-1)

  8. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (+2)

  9. Emily Watson, Hamnet (NEW)

  10. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (-2)

DROPPED
Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (-2)

Best Supporting Actor

  1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (+1)

  2. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (+3)

  3. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (-)

  4. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (-3)

  5. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (-1)
    —

  6. Miles Caton, Sinners (NEW)

  7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (+2)

  8. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon (-2)

  9. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (-1)

  10. William H. Macy, Train Dreams (-3)

DROPPED
Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (-1)

Best Original Screenplay

  1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (+3)

  2. Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (-1)

  3. Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt, Sentimental Value (-1)

  4. Jafar Panahi, Nader Saeivar, Shadmehr Rastin and Mehdi Mahmoudian, It Was Just an Accident (-1)

  5. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (+3)
    —

  6. Kleber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (-1)

  7. Robert Kaplow, Blue Moon (-)

  8. Zach Cregger, Weapons (+1)

  9. Mary Bronstein, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (+1)

  10. Noah Baumbach and Emily Mortimer, Jay Kelly (-4)

Best Adapted Screenplay

  1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (-)

  2. Maggie O’Farrell and Chloe Zhao, Hamnet (-)

  3. Will Tracy, Bugonia (+3)

  4. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (-)

  5. Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar, Train Dreams (-)
    —

  6. Lee Ja-hye, Lee Kyoung-mi, Park Chan-wook and Don McKellar, No Other Choice (-3)

  7. Rian Johnson, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (-)

  8. Craig Brewer, Song Sung Blue (-)

  9. James Vanderbilt, Nuremberg (-)

  10. Nia DaCosta, Hedda (-)

Best Animated Feature

  1. KPop Demon Hunters (-)

  2. Zootopia 2 (-)

  3. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (-)

  4. Arco (-)

  5. Elio (-)
    —

  6. Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle (NEW)

  7. In Your Dreams (-)

  8. Scarlet (-)

  9. A Magnificent Life (-)

  10. The Bad Guys 2 (NEW)

DROPPED
Ne Zha 2 (-5)
The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants (-1)

Best Animated Short

  1. Éiru (-)

  2. The Girl Who Cried Pearls (-)

  3. The Shyness of Trees (-)

  4. Snow Bear (-)

  5. The Night Boots (-)
    —

  6. Hurikán (-)

  7. The Three Sisters (-)

  8. Butterfly (Papillon) (-)

  9. The Quinta’s Ghost (-)

  10. I Died in Irpin (-)

Best Documentary Feature

  1. The Perfect Neighbor (-)

  2. Come See Me in the Good Light (-)

  3. 2000 Meters to Andriivka (-)

  4. Apocalypse in the Tropics (-)

  5. The Alabama Solution (-)
    —

  6. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (+1)

  7. Cover-Up (+1)

  8. My Undesirable Friends: Part 1 – Last Air in Moscow (NEW)

  9. Seeds (-3)

  10. Folktales (-1)

DROPPED
Mistress Dispeller (-1)

Best Documentary Short

  1. Armed Only with a Camera (-)

  2. All the Walls Came Down (-)

  3. On Healing Land, Birds Perch (-)

  4. Rovina’s Choice (-)

  5. Bad Hostage (-)
    —

  6. Last Days on Lake Trinity (-)

  7. Chasing Time (-)

  8. Classroom 4 (-)

  9. We Were the Scenery (-)

  10. Heartbeat (-)

Best Live Action Short

  1. Beyond Silence (-)

  2. Amarela (-)

  3. Rock, Paper, Scissors (-)

  4. Ado (-)

  5. The Pearl Comb (-)
    —

  6. A Friend of Dorothy (-)

  7. The Boy with White Skin (-)

  8. Dad’s Not Home (-)

  9. Butcher’s Stain (-)

  10. The Singers (-)

Best International Feature

  1. Sentimental Value (Norway) (-)

  2. The Secret Agent (Brazil) (+1)

  3. It Was Just an Accident (France) (-1)

  4. Sirāt (Spain) (+1)

  5. Left-Handed Girl (Taiwan) (+1)
    —

  6. The Voice of Hind Rajab (Tunisia) (+2)

  7. No Other Choice (South Korea) (-3)

  8. The President’s Cake (Iraq) (-1)

  9. Sound of Falling (Germany) (-)

  10. Belén (NEW)

DROPPED
All That’s Left of You (Jordan) (-1)

Best Casting

  1. Cassandra Kulukundis, One Battle After Another (-)

  2. Francine Maisler, Sinners (-)

  3. Jennifer Venditti, Marty Supreme (-)

  4. Nina Gold, Hamnet (-)

  5. Yngvill Kolset Haga and Avy Kaufman, Sentimental Value (-)
    —

  6. Gabriel Domingues, The Secret Agent (-)

  7. Robin D. Cook, Frankenstein (+1)

  8. Allison Jones, Weapons (-1)

  9. Tiffany Little Canfield and Bernard Telsey, Wicked: For Good (-)

  10. Nadia Acimi and Luis Bértolo, Sirât (-)

Best Cinematography

  1. Autumn Durald Arkapaw, Sinners (-)

  2. Dan Laustsen, Frankenstein (-)

  3. Michael Bauman, One Battle After Another (-)

  4. Lukasz Zal, Hamnet (-)

  5. Adolfo Veloso, Train Dreams (+1)
    —

  6. Darius Khondji, Marty Supreme (-1)

  7. Claudio Miranda, F1 (+1)

  8. Robbie Ryan, Bugonia (+1)

  9. Mauro Herce, Sirât (-2)

  10. Seamus McGarvey, Die My Love (NEW)

DROPPED
David Chambille, Nouvelle Vague (-1)

Best Costume Design

  1. Ruth E. Carter, Sinners (-)

  2. Kate Hawley, Frankenstein (+1)

  3. Paul Tazewell, Wicked: For Good (-1)

  4. Miyako Bellizzi, Marty Supreme (-)

  5. Malgosia Turzanska, Hamnet (-)
    —

  6. Colleen Atwood, One Battle After Another (-)

  7. Kumiko Ogawa, Kokuho (-)

  8. Lindsay Pugh, Hedda (+1)

  9. Malgorzata Karpiuk, The Testament of Ann Lee (-1)

  10. Colleen Atwood and Christine L. Cantella, Kiss of the Spider Woman (-)

Best Film Editing

  1. Andy Jurgensen, One Battle After Another (-)

  2. Michael P. Shawver, Sinners (+1)

  3. Ronald Bronstein, Marty Supreme (-1)

  4. Stephen Mirrione, F1 (+2)

  5. Chloé Zhao and Affonso Gonçalves, Hamnet (-)
    —

  6. Evan Schiff, Frankenstein (-2)

  7. Cristóbal Fernández, Sirât (+1)

  8. Kirk Baxter, A House of Dynamite (NEW)

  9. Yorgos Mavropsaridis, Bugonia (NEW)

  10. Olivier Bugge Coutté, Sentimental Value (-1)

DROPPED
Amir Etminan, It Was Just an Accident (-4)
James Cameron, Nicolas De Toth, John Refoua, David Brenner and Stephen E. Rivkin, Avatar: Fire and Ash (-1)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

  1. Mike Hill, Cliona Furey and Jordan Samuel, Frankenstein (-)

  2. Ken Diaz, Mike Fontaine and Shunika Terry, Sinners (+1)

  3. Mark Coulier, Frances Hannon and Laura Blount, Wicked: For Good (-1)

  4. Kazu Hiro, Glen Griffin and Bjoern Rehbein, The Smashing Machine (-)

  5. Kyoko Toyokawa, Naomi Hibino andTadashi Nishimatsu, Kokuho (-)
    —

  6. Mike Fontaine, Kay Georgiou and Kyra Pachenko, Marty Supreme (+2)

  7. Arjen Tuiten, One Battle After Another (-)

  8. Jan Sewell, Renata Gilbert and Sharon Robbins, Nuremberg (-2)

  9. Anne Catherine Sauerberg and Thomas Foldberg, The Ugly Stepsister (-)

  10. Jerry Popolis, Hiro Yada and Jason Hamer, The Alto Knights (-)

Best Original Score

  1. Ludwig Göransson, Sinners (+1)

  2. Jonny Greenwood, One Battle After Another (-1)

  3. Max Richter, Hamnet (-)

  4. Alexandre Desplat, Frankenstein (-)

  5. Daniel Lopatin, Marty Supreme (-)
    —

  6. Bryce Dessner, Train Dreams (-)

  7. Kangding Ray, Sirât (-)

  8. Stephen Schwartz and John Powell, Wicked: For Good (-)

  9. Jerskin Fendrix, Bugonia (NEW)

  10. Hildur Guðnadóttir, Hedda (-)

DROPPED
Nicholas Britell, Jay Kelly (-2)

Best Original Song

  1. “Golden,” KPop Demon Hunters (+1)

  2. “I Lied to You,” Sinners (+1)

  3. “Dear Me,” Diane Warren: Relentless (-2)

  4. “The Girl in the Bubble,” Wicked: For Good (-)

  5. “Train Dreams,” Train Dreams (+1)
    —

  6. “Last Time (I Seen the Sun),” Sinners (-1)

  7. “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet,” Come See Me in the Good Light (-)

  8. “Drive,” F1 (NEW)

  9. “No Place Like Home,” Wicked: For Good (-1)

  10. “Highest 2 Lowest,” Highest 2 Lowest (-1)

DROPPED
“Dream as One,” Avatar: Fire and Ash (-1)

Best Production Design

  1. Tamara Deverell and Shane Vieau, Frankenstein (-)

  2. Hannah Beachler and Monique Champagne, Sinners (-)

  3. Jack Fisk and Adam Willis, Marty Supreme (+1)

  4. Fiona Crombie and Alice Felton, Hamnet (+1)

  5. Nathan Crowley and Lee Sandales, Wicked: For Good (-2)
    —

  6. Florencia Martin and Anthony Carlino, One Battle After Another (-)

  7. Dylan Cole, Ben Procter and Vanessa Cole, Avatar: Fire and Ash (-)

  8. Kasra Farahani and Jille Azis, The Fantastic Four: First Steps (-)

  9. Katia Wyszkop, Nouvelle Vague (-)

  10. Cara Bower and Stella Fox, Hedda (-)

Best Sound

  1. Jose Antonio Garcia, Christopher Scarabosio and Tony Villaflor, One Battle After Another (-)

  2. Steve Boeddeker, Benny Burtt, David V. Butler, Felipe Pacheco, Brandon Proctor and Chris Welcker, Sinners (-)

  3. Greg Chapman, Christian Cooke, Nelson Ferreira, Nathan Robitaile and Brad Zoern, Frankenstein (-)

  4. Gareth John, Al Nelson, Juan Peralta, Gary A. Rizzo and Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, F1 (+1)

  5. Jack Dolman, Simon Hayes, John Marquis, Andy Nelson and Nancy Nugent Title, Wicked: For Good (+1)
    —

  6. Chris Burdon, Lloyd Dudley, James H. Mather, Mark Taylor and Cécile Tournesac, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (+2)

  7. Laia Casanovas, Yasmina Praderas and Amanda Villavieja, Sirât (-)

  8. Brent Burge, Alexis Feodoroff, Michael Hedges, Julian Howarth and Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Avatar: Fire and Ash (-4)

  9. Lance Acord, Chris Boyes, Tim LeBlanc, Lee Orloff and Katy Wood, Superman (+1)

  10. David Giammarco, Tod A. Maitland, Paul Massey and Eric A. Norris, Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere (-1)

Best Visual Effects

  1. Richard Baneham, Daniel Barrett, Eric Saindon and Joe Letteri, Avatar: Fire and Ash (-)

  2. Dennis Berardi, Ayo Burgess, Ivan Busquets and Jose Granell, Frankenstein (-)

  3. Donnie Dean, Espen Nordhal, Michael Ralla and Guido Wolter, Sinners (-)

  4. Nicolas Chevalier, Robert Harrington, Keith Alfred Dawson and Ryan Tudhope, F1 (+1)

  5. Stephane Ceretti, Enrico Damm, Stéphane Nazé and Guy Williams, Superman (+1)
    —

  6. Donnie Dean, Espen Nordhal, Michael Ralla and Guido Wolter, The Lost Bus (+3)

  7. Paul Corbould, Jonathan Fawkner, Pablo Helman and Dale Newton, Wicked: For Good (-3)

  8. Jeff Capogreco, Vincent Papaix, David Seager and Cameron Waldbauer, Tron: Ares (-1)

  9. Stephen Aplin, Charmaine Chan, Neil Corbould and David Vickery, Jurassic World Rebirth (-1)

  10. Matthew E. Butler, Russell Earl, Joel Behrens and Elizabeth Bernard, The Electric State (-)

January 16, 2026 /Andrew Carden
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