2020 Oscar Nomination Predictions (September)

Howdy, friends!

By this point in years past, I’d have already released my first set of Summer Oscar Predictions and be in the midst of revising them for an updated September set. Having seen a grand total of four - no, not 14…4 - 2020 releases at this point, let’s just say I haven’t exactly been engaged or inspired to explore what is destined to be the most haphazard of awards seasons.

With more trailers dropping and theaters (inexplicably) starting to reopen their doors, however, I figured I’d go ahead and give this a shot - at this point, just in the top eight categories.

If we’re indeed going to have an Oscars on April 25, I’m hopeful more contenders will be added to the calendar, as the film landscape ahead strikes me as atypically, if understandably, barren. I’m not sold, for instance, on West Side Story proving a force to be reckoned with or Da 5 Bloods even being remembered by the time 2021 rolls around, yet I couldn’t help but include them, including in Best Picture. I’m even less convinced Dune, which I’ve seen grace countless pundits’ major predictions, will be a player beyond technical categories but perhaps it too could break through.

At this point, of course, with many of these films still unseen, these hunches are total shots in the dark. Mank and The Trial of the Chicago 7 sure look formidable on paper but the Academy has broken the hearts of David Fincher and Aaron Sorkin before. And I’m super excited and curious to see what comes of Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, which might be my favorite of all August Wilson works, yet I wouldn’t necessarily call that a popular opinion (its forgotten Broadway revival, with Whoopi Goldberg and Charles S. Dutton, was a critical and commercial disaster).

And then, of course, there’s Glenn. And Michelle Pfeiffer! Imagine if both Dangerous Liaisons ladies somehow manage to win. The dream of that alone gets me pretty pumped about Oscar season, even if such sorely overdue victories are accepted over Zoom.

One year ago, I was predicted the likes of Waves in Best Picture and Jennifer Hudson in Best Supporting Actress (for Cats, obvs), so of course take these bad boys with a grain of salt… :)

Best Picture

1. Mank

2. The Trial of the Chicago 7

3. News of the World

4. Hillbilly Elegy

5. Soul

6. Nomadland

7. The Father

8. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

9. West Side Story

10. Da 5 Bloods
    —

11. Ammonite

12. Respect

13. Minari

14. Judas and the Black Messiah

15. One Night in Miami

Best Director

1. David Fincher, Mank

2. Paul Greengrass, News of the World

3. Ron Howard, Hillbilly Elegy

4. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7

5. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
   —

6. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari

7. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods

8. Florian Zeller, The Father

9. Francis Lee, Ammonite

10. Regina King, One Night in Miami

Best Actress

1. Frances McDormand, Nomadland

2. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

3. Kate Winslet, Ammonite

4. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy

5. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit
   —

6. Jennifer Hudson, Respect

7. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead

8. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman

9. Jennifer Lawrence, Red, White and Water

10. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday

Best Actor

1. Anthony Hopkins, The Father

2. Tom Hanks, News of the World

3. Gary Oldman, Mank

4. Eddie Redmayne, The Trial of the Chicago 7

5. Joaquin Phoenix, C’mon C’mon
   —

6. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah

7. Bill Murray, On the Rocks

8. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods

9. Gabriel Basso, Hillbilly Elegy

10. Steven Yeun, Minari

Best Supporting Actress

1. Olivia Colman, The Father

2. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy

3. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite

4. Meryl Streep, The Prom

5. Helena Zengel, News of the World
   —

6. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story

7. Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans

8. Audra McDonald, Respect

9. Amanda Seyfried, Mank

10. Youn Yuh-jung, Minari

Best Supporting Actor

1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

2. David Strathairn, Nomadland

3. Tom Pelphrey, Mank

4. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7

5. Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7
   —

6. Jeremy Strong, The Trial of the Chicago 7

7. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7

8. Richard Jenkins, The Humans

9. Martin Sheen, Judas and the Black Messiah

10. Glynn Turman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Best Original Screenplay

1. Jack Fincher, Mank

2. Pete Docter, Tina Fey, Mike Jones and Kemp Powers, Soul

3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7

4. Spike Lee, Danny Bilson, Pail De Meo and Kevin Willmott, Da 5 Bloods

5. Francis Lee, Ammonite
   —

6. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari

7. Mike Mills, C’mon C’mon

8. Sofia Coppola, On the Rocks

9. Shaka King and Will Berson, Judas and the Black Messiah

10. Eliza Hittman, Never Rarely Sometimes Always

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller, The Father

2. Ruben Santiago-Hudson, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

3. Vanessa Taylor, Hillbilly Elegy

4. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland

5. Luke Davies and Paul Greengrass, News of the World
   —

6. Patrick deWitt, French Exit

7. Suzan Lori-Parks, The United States vs. Billie Holiday

8. Kemp Powers, One Night in Miami

9. Stephen Karam, The Humans

10. Iain Morris and Taika Waititi, Next Goal Wins

FINAL 2019 Oscar Winner Predictions

For the utter lack of excitement present in this year’s acting races - look, I hate to use the l-word but Renee Zellweger, Joaquin Phoenix, Laura Dern and Brad Pitt are as close to legit locks as you’ll get - there remains a great deal of suspense as we enter Oscar night, including, and perhaps most of all, in Best Picture.

Though 1917 seems to be peaking at just the right time with those key BAFTA, PGA and DGA victories, I still see the top showdown as a virtual jump ball among it, Parasite and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, with Jojo Rabbit, which has picked up some guilds steam as of late, and Joker, the nominations leader, not entirely down for the count.

What nudges me in Parasite’s direction is that SAG win - which, I have to admit, I didn’t expect. That victory wholeheartedly makes up for the lack of an acting Oscar nomination and, coupled with essential showings in Film Editing and Production Design here, strikes me as indicative that just enough industry support for the picture exists for it to go all the way, even if it fails to win much down the ballot. (I have Parasite scoring its lone other victory in International Feature.)

Sam Mendes looks to be in solid shape for his second career Oscar - a surprise loss, however, would surely doom 1917 for the top prize. While I can picture a Parasite/Mendes or Once Upon a Time in Hollywood/Mendes split, I cannot see 1917 prevailing in Best Picture without its director triumphing as well. And, should Bong Joon-ho or Quentin Tarantino score the upset in Director, you better believe their film is making it across the finish line up top.

The writing categories remain exciting too, with Adapted Screenplay having three viable candidates in the running (this could be where The Irishman saves itself from a shutout, though I’m inclined not to predict it) and Tarantino in nearly as sturdy a position in Original Screenplay as Mendes is in Director - the front-runner but not an invincible one. A Parasite victory there would likely seal the deal for Picture and Marriage Story, once upon a time a more formidable awards season contender than it ultimately turned out to be, perhaps still has a sliver of a chance.

Further down the ballot, there aren’t many shoo-ins to be found, sans Parasite in International Feature and perhaps Bombshell in Makeup & Hairstyling. Ford v Ferrari, despite being hopeless in Picture, could triumph on its other three nominations, including Film Editing, and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood may flourish or flounder - there really is a possibility, albeit a slight one, that only Pitt walks away with an Oscar for the film.

And let’s not forget what I consider one of the evening’s most wide-open affairs - Original Song.

Elton John initially seemed a sure thing - that is, until Rocketman otherwise flatlined on nominations morning, with the new John tune its lone recognition. Voters also don’t seem terribly keen on Frozen II, which somehow missed in Animated Feature. Randy Newman managed to prevail in this category for an even more forgettable song with Toy Story 3, Cynthia Erivo could EGOT by triumphing with her Harriet song and yes, Diane Warren, the Glenn Close/Thelma Ritter of Original Song, is on her 11th nomination without a win. All circumstances considered, I actually like her chances, even if Breakthrough is…decidedly not an Oscar-caliber production.

All that said, here they are, folks - my final predictions in this exceedingly dizzying awards season…

Best Picture

1. Parasite

2. 1917

3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

4. Jojo Rabbit

5. Joker

6. Little Women

7. The Irishman

8. Marriage Story

9. Ford v Ferrari

Best Director

1. Sam Mendes, 1917

2. Bong Joon-ho, Parasite

3. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

4. Todd Phillips, Joker

5. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman

Best Actress

1. Renee Zellweger, Judy

2. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story

3. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women

4. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet

5. Charlize Theron, Bombshell

Best Actor

1. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker

2. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory

3. Adam Driver, Marriage Story

4. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes

5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Best Supporting Actress

1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story

2. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit

3. Florence Pugh, Little Women

4. Margot Robbie, Bombshell

5. Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell

Best Supporting Actor

1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

2. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

3. Joe Pesci, The Irishman

4. Al Pacino, The Irishman

5. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes

Best Original Screenplay

1. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

2. Bong Joon-ho and Han Jin-won, Parasite

3. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story

4. Sam Mendes and Krysty Wilson-Cairns, 1917

5. Rian Johnson, Knives Out

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit

2. Greta Gerwig, Little Women

3. Steven Zaillian, The Irishman

4. Todd Phillips and Scott Silver, Joker

5. Anthony McCarten, The Two Popes

Best Animated Feature

1. Toy Story 4

2. Missing Link

3. Klaus

4. I Lost My Body

5. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World

Best Documentary Feature

1. American Factory

2. Honeyland

3. For Sama

4. The Edge of Democracy

5. The Cave

Best International Feature

1. Parasite (South Korea)

2. Pain and Glory (Spain)

3. Honeyland (North Macedonia)

4. Les Miserables (France)

5. Corpus Christi (Poland)

Best Animated Short Film

1. Memorable

2. Hair Love

3. Kitbull

4. Daughter

5. Sister

Best Documentary Short Subject

1. St. Louis Superman

2. Walk Run Cha-Cha

3. Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You're a Girl)

4. Life Overtakes Me

5. In the Absence

Best Live Action Short Film

1. The Neighbors’ Window

2. Brotherhood

3. Saria

4. Nefta Football Club

5. A Sister

Best Cinematography

1. Roger Deakins, 1917

2. Robert Richardson, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

3. Rodrigo Prieto, The Irishman

4. Jarin Blaschke, The Lighthouse

5. Lawrence Sher, Joker

Best Costume Design

1. Arianne Phillips, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

2. Mayes C. Rubeo, Jojo Rabbit

3. Jacqueline Durran, Little Women

4. Sandy Powell and Christopher Peterson, The Irishman

5. Mark Bridges, Joker

Best Film Editing

1. Andrew Buckland and Michael McCusker, Ford v Ferrari

2. Yang Jin-mo, Parasite

3. Thelma Schoonmaker, The Irishman

4. Jeff Groth, Joker

5. Tom Eagles, Jojo Rabbit

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

1. Kazu Hiro, Anne Morgan, and Vivian Baker, Bombshell

2. Jeremy Woodhead, Judy

3. Nicki Ledermann and Kay Georgiou, Joker

4. Paul Gooch, Arjen Tuiten, and David White, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil

5. Naomi Donne, Tristan Versluis, and Rebecca Cole, 1917

Best Original Score

1. Hildur Guðnadóttir, Joker

2. Thomas Newman, 1917

3. John Williams, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

4. Alexandre Desplat, Little Women

5. Randy Newman, Marriage Story

Best Original Song

1. “I’m Standing with You,” Breakthrough

2. “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again,” Rocketman

3. “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away,” Toy Story 4

4. “Stand Up,” Harriet

5. “Into the Unknown,” Frozen II

Best Production Design

1. Barbara Ling and Nancy Haigh, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

2. Dennis Gassner and Lee Sandales, 1917

3. Lee Ha-jun and Cho Won-woo, Parasite

4. Ra Vincent and Nora Sopková, Jojo Rabbit

5. Bob Shaw and Regina Graves, The Irishman

Best Sound Editing

1. Donald Sylvester, Ford v Ferrari

2. Oliver Tarney and Rachael Tate, 1917

3. Alan Robert Murray, Joker

4. Wylie Stateman, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

5. Matthew Wood and David Acord, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

Best Sound Mixing

1. Mark Taylor and Stuart Wilson, 1917

2. Paul Massey, David Giammarco, and Steven A. Morrow, Ford v Ferrari

3. Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic and Tod Maitland, Joker

4. Michael Minkler, Christian P. Minkler, and Mark Ulano, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

5. Gary Rydstrom, Tom Johnson and Mark Ulano, Ad Astra

Best Visual Effects

1. Guillaume Rocheron, Greg Butler, and Dominic Tuohy, 1917

2. Dan DeLeeuw, Matt Aitken, Russell Earl, and Dan Sudick, Avengers: Endgame

3. Pablo Helman, Leandro Estebecorena, Stephane Grabli, and Nelson Sepulveda, The Irishman

4. Robert Legato, Adam Valdez, Andrew R. Jones, and Elliot Newman, The Lion King

5. Roger Guyett, Neal Scanlan, Patrick Tubach, and Dominic Tuohy, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

FINAL 2019 Oscar Nomination Predictions

Welp, here we go!

Back in September, I had the likes of The Good Liar, Waves, John Lithgow and Maggie Smith (and yes, a little Cats here and there) gracing my Oscar predictions. Now, those wannabe-contenders have faded and I have settled on my final, yes final, set of predictions for the year.

Even with the Golden Globes ceremony and, far more importantly, DGA/PGA/SAG/WGA nominations behind us, no shortage of question marks remain heading into Oscar noms morning.

Will, for instance, Little Women, despite never quite soaring during precursors season, suddenly take off at the 11 o’clock hour?

Is Bombshell, not exactly a critical or commercial smash, poised for a mere duo or trio of nominations - or is that quartet of SAG noms indicative of robust-enough industry support to land it in Best Picture?

Pedro Almodovar - can he earn not one but two nominations for Pain and Glory? And how about double noms for Cynthia Erivo (not only leading lady of Harriet but also composer on its original tune) and/or Scarlett Johansson?

Martin Scorsese, Charlize Theron, Leonardo DiCaprio and Tom Hanks - they’ve surfaced just about everywhere but are they really shoo-ins for Oscar love? And what about the folks who haven’t left a dent at all this season - can we unequivocally count out past nominees like Alan Alda and Alfre Woodard?

And then there are those contenders - the likes of The Farewell, Knives Out, Rocketman, The Two Popes and perhaps even Uncut Gems - that could go either way, making a nice, albeit modest splash in nominations or landing mostly DOA.

All that said, here are they are - my final 2019 Oscar predictions, ranked from most to least likely score recognition. In parentheses you’ll see how many slots a contender has moved up or down since my December rankings. In some cases, I have dropped a film or performer entirely (later, Richard Jewell). For the first time, I’ve also tackled all of the shorts, so no ranking changes there.

Happy reading… :)

Best Picture

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (+1)

2. 1917 (+3)

3. The Irishman (-2)

4. Marriage Story (-1)

5. Parasite (-1)

6. Little Women (+4)

7. Jojo Rabbit (+1)

8. Joker (-2)

9. Ford v Ferrari (-2)
   —

10. The Farewell (+1)

11. Knives Out (+4)

12. Rocketman (+2)

13. Bombshell (-4)

14. The Two Popes (-1)

15. Uncut Gems (NEW)

DROPPED
Richard Jewell (-4)

Best Director

1. Sam Mendes, 1917 (+3)

2. Bong Joon-ho, Parasite (+1)

3. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-1)

4. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman (-3)

5. Greta Gerwig, Little Women (+5)
   —

6. Todd Phillips, Joker (-)

7. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (+2)

8. Pedro Almodovar, Pain and Glory (-1)

9. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (-4)

10. Josh and Benny Safdie, Uncut Gems (NEW)

DROPPED
Clint Eastwood, Richard Jewell (-3)

Best Actress

1. Renee Zellweger, Judy (-)

2. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (-)

3. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women (+2)

4. Charlize Theron, Bombshell (-1)

5. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet (-1)
   —

6. Awkwafina, The Farewell (+1)

7. Lupita Nyong’o, Us (-1)

8. Mary Kay Place, Diane (-)

9. Alfre Woodard, Clemency (-)

10. Jessie Buckley, Wild Rose (NEW)

DROPPED
Ana de Armas, Knives Out (-1)

Best Actor

1. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (+1)

2. Adam Driver, Marriage Story (-1)

3. Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari (-)

4. Taron Egerton, Rocketman (+1)

5. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (-1)
   —

6. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (+3)

7. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes (-)

8. Robert De Niro, The Irishman (-2)

9. Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems (+1)

10. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name (-2)

Best Supporting Actress

1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story (-)

2. Margot Robbie, Bombshell (-)

3. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit (+3)

4. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers (-1)

5. Florence Pugh, Little Women (+4)
   —

6. Zhao Shuzhen, The Farewell (-1)

7. Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell (-3)

8. Nicole Kidman, Bombshell (-1)

9. Annette Bening, The Report (-1)

10. Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (NEW)

DROPPED
Cho Yeo-jeong, Parasite (-1)

Best Supporting Actor

1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-)

2. Joe Pesci, The Irishman (-)

3. Al Pacino, The Irishman (-)

4. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes (-)

5. Song Kang-ho, Parasite (-)
   —

6. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (-)

7. Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy (-)

8. Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse (+2)

9. Alan Alda, Marriage Story (-)

10. Sam Rockwell, Richard Jewell (-2)

Best Original Screenplay

1. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (+1)

2. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (-1)

3. Bong Joon-ho and Jin Won Han, Parasite (-)

4. Lulu Wang, The Farewell (-)

5. Rian Johnson, Knives Out (+1)
   —

6. Sam Mendes and Krysty Wilson-Cairns, 1917 (NEW)

7. Pedro Almodovar, Pain and Glory (-2)

8. Ronald Bronstein, Benny Safdie and Josh Safdie, Uncut Gems (+1)

9. Emily Halpern, Sarah Haskins, Susanna Fogel and Katie Silberman, Booksmart (NEW)

10. Scott Alexander and Larry Karaszewski, Dolemite Is My Name (-3)

DROPPED
Charles Randolph, Bombshell (-3)
Trey Edward Schults, Waves (-1)

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Steven Zaiillian, The Irishman (-)

2. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (+2)

3. Greta Gerwig, Little Women (-)

4. Anthony McCarten, The Two Popes (-2)

5. Todd Phillips and Scott Silver, Joker (-)
   —

6. Micah Fitzerman-Blue and Noah Harpster, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (-)

7. Destin Daniel Cretton and Andrew Lanham, Just Mercy (+2)

8. Lorene Scafaria, Hustlers (-)

9. Billy Ray, Richard Jewell (-2)

10. Matthew Michael Carnahan and Mario Correa, Dark Waters (-)

Best Animated Feature

1. Frozen II (+1)

2. Toy Story 4 (-1)

3. Missing Link (+1)

4. I Lost My Body (+1)

5. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (-2)
   —

6. Okko’s Inn (-)

7. Weathering with You (-)

8. Abominable (-)

9. Funan (-)

10. Children of the Sea (-)

Best Documentary Feature

1. Maiden (-)

2. Aquarela (-)

3. One Child Nation (-)

4. Apollo 11 (-)

5. American Factory (+2)
   —

6. The Biggest Little Farm (-)

7. Knock Down the House (+2)

8. The Edge of Democracy (NEW)

9. The Great Hack (NEW)

10. Midnight Family (NEW)

DROPPED
Rolling Thunder Revue: A Bob Dylan Story by Martin Scorsese (-6)
Toni Morrison: The Pieces I Am (-3)
Pavarotti (-1)

Best International Feature

1. Parasite (South Korea) (-)

2. Pain and Glory (Spain) (-)

3. Les Misérables (France) (-)

4. The Painted Bird (Czech Republic) (+4)

5. Honeyland (North Macedonia) (+4)
   —

6. Atlantics (Senegal) (+1)

7. Corpus Christi (Poland) (NEW)

8. Truth and Justice (Estonia) (NEW)

9. Those Who Remained (Hungary) (NEW)

10. Beanpole (Russia) (NEW)

DROPPED
Monos (Colombia) (-7)
Our Mothers (Belgium) (-5)
Queen of Hearts (Denmark) (-2)
Dear Ex (Taiwan) (NEW)

Best Animated Short Film

1. He Can’t Live Without Cosmos

2. Sister

3. Daughter

4. Hors Piste

5. Uncle Thomas: Accounting for the Days
   —

6. Hair Love

7. Memorable

8. The Physics of Sorrow

9. Mind My Mind

10. Kitbull

Best Documentary Short Subject

1. Ghosts of Sugar Land

2. St. Louis Superman

3. Fire in Paradise

4. Walk Run Cha-Cha

5. After Maria
   —

6. Stay Close

7. The Nightcrawlers

8. Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl)

9. Life Overtakes Me

10. In the Absence

Best Live Action Short Film

1. Refugee

2. Saria

3. The Neighbors’ Window

4. Miller & Son

5. Brotherhood
   —

6. A Sister

7. The Christmas Gift

8. Little Hands

9. Sometimes, I Think About Dying

10. Nefta Football Club

Best Cinematography

1. Roger Deakins, 1917 (-)

2. Robert Richardson, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-)

3. Rodrigo Prieto, The Irishman (-)

4. Lawrence Sher, Joker (-)

5. Phedon Papamichael, Ford v Ferrari (-)
   —

6. Kyung-Pyo Hong, Parasite (-)

7. Claire Mathon, Portrait Of A Lady On Fire (-)

8. Jörg Widmer, A Hidden Life (-)

9. Jarin Blaschke, The Lighthouse (-)

10. Mihai Mălaimare Jr., Jojo Rabbit (NEW)

DROPPED
Drew Daniels, Waves (-1)

Best Costume Design

1. Arianne Phillips, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-)

2. Jacqueline Durran, Little Women (+1)

3. Julian Day, Rocketman (+1)

4. Ruth E. Carter, Dolemite Is My Name (-2)

5. Jany Temime, Judy (-)
   —

6. Mayes C. Rubeo, Jojo Rabbit (-)

7. Anna Mary Scott Robbins, Downton Abbey (-)

8. Christopher Peterson and Sandy Powell, The Irishman (-)

9. Ellen Mirojnick, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil (NEW)

10. Jacqueline Durran, 1917 (-)

DROPPED
Paco Delgado, Cats (-2)

Best Film Editing

1. Lee Smith, 1917 (+3)

2. Thelma Schoonmaker, The Irishman (-1)

3. Fred Raskin, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-)

4. Michael McCusker, Ford v Ferrari (-2)

5. Jeff Groth, Joker (-)
   —

6. Jinmo Yang, Parasite (-)

7. Ronald Bronstein and Benny Safdie, Uncut Gems (+1)

8. Jennifer Lame, Marriage Story (+2)

9. Tom Eagles, Jojo Rabbit (NEW)

10. Nick Huoy, Little Women (NEW)

DROPPED
Maryann Brandon and Stefan Grube, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (-4)
John Poll, Bombshell (-2)

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

1. Vivian Baker, Kazu Hiro and Anne Morgan, Bombshell (-)

2. Barrie Gower, Lizzie Yianni Georgiou and Tapio Salmi, Rocketman (+5)

3. Jeremy Woodhead, Judy (-1)

4. Kay Georgiou and Nicki Ledermann, Joker (-1)

5. Fríða Aradóttir and Jennifer Bell, Little Women (-1)
   —

6. Debra Denson, Carla Farmer, Stacey Morris and Vera Steimberg Moder, Dolemite Is My Name (-)

7. The team from Maleficent: Mistress of Evil (NEW)

8. Elaine Browne and Anne Nosh Oldham, Downton Abbey (NEW)

9. Janine Rath and Heba Thorisdottir, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-1)

10. Naomi Donne and Tristan Versluis, 1917 (NEW)

DROPPED
Belinda Anderson and Angie Wells, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (-6)
Jorge Palacios, The Two Popes (-2)
Uxue Laguardia and Niamh O’Loan, Cats (-1)

Best Original Score

1. John Williams, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (-)

2. Thomas Newman, 1917 (-)

3. Alexandre Desplat, Little Women (+1)

4. Hildur Guðnadóttir, Joker (+2)

5. Randy Newman, Marriage Story (-2)
   —

6. Michael Giacchino, Jojo Rabbit (+1)

7. Marco Beltrami and Buck Sanders, Ford v Ferrari (-2)

8. Alberto Iglesias, Pain and Glory (NEW)

9. Daniel Pemberton, Motherless Brooklyn (+1)

10. Alex Weston, The Farewell (NEW)

DROPPED
Nate Heller, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (-3)
Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, Waves (-2)

Best Original Song

1. “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again,” Rocketman (+1)

2. “Into the Unknown,” Frozen II (-1)

3. “Stand Up,” Harriet (-)

4. “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away,” Toy Story 4 (-)

5. “I’m Standing with You,” Breakthrough (-)
   —

6. “Spirit,” The Lion King (+1)

7. “A Glass of Soju,” Parasite (NEW)

8. “Glasgow,” Wild Rose (NEW)

9. “Letter to My Godfather,” The Black Godfather (NEW)

10. “Speechless,” Aladdin (-2)

DROPPED
“Beautiful Ghosts,” Cats (-5)
“Control,” Her Smell (-2)
“Daily Battles,” Motherless Brooklyn (-1)

Best Production Design

1. Nancy Haigh and Barbara Ling, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-)

2. Dennis Gassner, 1917 (-)

3. Regina Graves and Bob Shaw, The Irishman (+1)

4. Ha-Jun Lee, Parasite (+1)

5. Mark Friedberg and Kris Moran, Joker (+2)
   —

6. Claire Kaufman, Little Women (+3)

7. Judy Farr and Marcus Rowland, Rocketman (NEW)

8. Nora Sopková and Ra Vincent, Jojo Rabbit (-)

9. Rick Carter and Kevin Jenkins, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (-6)

10. David Crank and David Schlesinger, Knives Out (-)

DROPPED
Eve Stewart, Cats (-5)

Best Sound Editing

1. The team from 1917 (-)

2. Eric A. Norris and Donald Sylvester, Ford v Ferrari (-)

3. Shannon Mills and Samson Neslund, Avengers: Endgame (-)

4. Alan Robert Murray, Joker (+1)

5. Harry Cohen and Leo Marcil, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (+1)
   —

6. Matthew Collinge and Danny Sheehan, Rocketman (NEW)

7. David Acord and Matthew Wood, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (-3)

8. Philip Stockton, The Irishman (-)

9. Ai-Ling Lee and Tobias Poppe, Jojo Rabbit (NEW)

10. Davide Anselmi and Frank E. Eulner, The Lion King (-)

DROPPED
Grant Elder, Ad Astra (-3)
The team from Cats (-2)

Best Sound Mixing

1. Scott Millan, Mark Taylor and Stuart Wilson, 1917 (-)

2. Richard Bullock, Jr., Paul Massey and Steven Morrow, Ford v Ferrari (-)

3. Christian P. Minkler, Michael Minkler and Mark Ulano, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-)

4. Tod A. Maitland, Tom Ozanich and Dean Zupancic, Joker (+3)

5. Tom Johnson, Juan Peralta and John Pritchett, Avengers: Endgame (-1)
   —

6. Matthew Collinge, John Hayes and Mike Prestwood Smith, Rocketman (-)

7. Tom Fleischman, Eugene Gearty and Tod A. Maitland, The Irishman (+1)

8. Tae-young Choi, Eun Hee-soo and Young Kang Hye, Parasite (NEW)

9. Ben Burtt and Andy Nelson, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (-4)

10. Petr Forejt, Ai-Ling Lee and Andy Nelson, Jojo Rabbit (-)

DROPPED
Simon Hayes, Cats (-2)

Best Visual Effects

1. Dan DeLeeuw, Russell Earl, Kelly Port and Daniel Sudick, Avengers: Endgame (-)

2. Roger Guyett and Dominic Tuohy, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (-)

3. Greg Butler, Guillaume Rocheron and Dominic Tuohy, 1917 (+4)

4. Robert Legato, Elliot Newman and Adam Valdez, The Lion King (-)

5. Mark Hawker, Bryan Hirota and Bill Westenhofer, Gemini Man (+1)
   —

6. The team from Alita: Battle Angel (NEW)

7. Pablo Helman and Jiwoong Kim, The Irishman (-4)

8. Christopher Townsend and Daniel Sudick, Captain Marvel (NEW)

9. The team from Terminator: Dark Fate (NEW)

10. The team from Cats (-1)

DROPPED
Christopher Downs, Jiwoong Kim and Bradley Parker, Ad Astra (-6)
The team from Ford v Ferrari (-3)
Romain Arnoux, Louis Morin and Jean-François Ferland, The Aeronauts (-1)

2019 Oscar Nomination Predictions (December)

Funny how precursor season at once adds clarity and question marks to the Oscar race.

A few things seem certain - The Irishman, Marriage Story (even with its SAG Ensemble snub), Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and Parasite are poised for heaps of love come nominations morning, including Best Picture noms. Among actors, the likes of Scarlett Johansson, Renee Zellweger, Adam Driver, Joaquin Phoenix, Laura Dern, Brad Pitt and the two Irishman fellas (Al Pacino & Joe Pesci) appear awfully secure for recognition - their absence would prove a true jaw-dropper.

Beyond these contenders, however, I feel at least some sense of doubt.

1917, for instance, seems on paper like the sort of war picture that should earn at least half a dozen Oscar noms, including Best Picture and a pile of tech prizes, but hasn’t exactly set the awards season ablaze thus far - nor has Little Women, which has fabulous reviews and should prove a grand commercial success, but mostly floundered at the Globes and outright flatlined with SAG. And then there are the polarizing Jojo Rabbit and Joker, which seem to have enough passion to land some major noms but could just as easily fall short of the finish line for a Best Picture nom. Contenders like Bombshell and Richard Jewell have seen rather lukewarm responses but shouldn’t be underestimated.

For Best Director, don’t count out a dark horse like Pedro Almodovar, even if he’s largely been a no-show thus far. Clint Eastwood is, per usual, lurking around the corner, as is Joker’s Todd Phillips, whose film could make anywhere from a rather modest to quite major splash in nominations. The screenwriting categories too could offer some surprises, though I’m feeling reasonably confident about my quintet in Adapted Screenplay.

And then there are the actors. I have to say, I’m not even all that confident the likes of Charlize Theron and Jennifer Lopez are necessarily the shoo-ins they’re generally being labeled as. In Best Actress, I think we could still see the brilliant Alfre Woodard come out of nowhere for a nom and also ought to keep an eye on LAFCA Best Actress winner Mary Kay Place, a beloved character actor at last having her moment in the awards season spotlight.

Best Actor is an outright shitshow and Best Supporting Actress/Actor are also packed with uncertainty. We’ll never know if Kathy Bates would’ve been a SAG nominee had she not been inexplicably placed in Lead there. Likewise, we can’t entirely count out a contender like Alan Alda, who so far hasn’t emerged anywhere…but also didn’t see much precursor affection for The Aviator, which ultimately landed him his first career Oscar nom.

That said, here are my updated Oscar predictions for the month of December. In parentheses you’ll see how many slots a contender has moved up or down since my November rankings. In many cases, I have dropped a film or performer entirely (see ya, Dame Maggie). While I won’t yet tackle the shorts, I have for the first time taken a stab at Best Original Song…not exactly a zoo of a category but also not a cinch to narrow down to five.

Enjoy! :)

Best Picture

1. The Irishman (+1)

2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-1)

3. Marriage Story (-)

4. Parasite (-)

5. 1917 (+2)

6. Joker (+7)

7. Ford v Ferrari (-1)

8. Jojo Rabbit (+3)
   —

9. Bombshell (-4)

10. Little Women (-1)

11. The Farewell (-3)

12. Richard Jewell (NEW)

13. The Two Popes (-4)

14. Rocketman (-3)

15. Knives Out (NEW)

DROPPED
Waves (-2)
Cats (-1)

Best Director

1. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman (-)

2. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-)

3. Bong Joon-ho, Parasite (+1)

4. Sam Mendes, 1917 (+2)

5. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (-2)
   —

6. Todd Phillips, Joker (NEW)

7. Pedro Almodovar, Pain and Glory (-2)

8. Clint Eastwood, Richard Jewell (NEW)

9. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (-)

10. Greta Gerwig, Little Women (-1)

DROPPED
Jay Roach, Bombshell (-4)
Lulu Wang, The Farewell (-1)

Best Actress

1. Renee Zellweger, Judy (-)

2. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (+1)

3. Charlize Theron, Bombshell (-1)

4. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet (+2)

5. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women (-1)
   —

6. Lupita Nyong’o, Us (+1)

7. Awkwafina, The Farewell (+1)

8. Mary Kay Place, Diane (+2)

9. Alfre Woodard, Clemency (-4)

10. Ana de Armas, Knives Out (NEW)

DROPPED
Jodie Turner-Smith, Queen & Slim (-2)

Best Actor

1. Adam Driver, Marriage Story (-)

2. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (+3)

3. Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari (+1)

4. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (-1)

5. Taron Egerton, Rocketman (+4)
   —

6. Robert De Niro, The Irishman (-)

7. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes (-5)

8. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name (-)

9. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-2)

10. Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems (-)

Best Supporting Actress

1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story (-)

2. Margot Robbie, Bombshell (+4)

3. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers (+4)

4. Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell (NEW)

5. Zhao Shuzhen, The Farewell (+5)
   —

6. Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit (NEW)

7. Nicole Kidman, Bombshell (-4)

8. Annette Bening, The Report (-6)

9. Florence Pugh, Little Women (-)

10. Cho Yeo-jeong, Parasite (NEW)

DROPPED
Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey (-7)
Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-5)
Jennifer Hudson, Cats (-3)

Best Supporting Actor

1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (+1)

2. Joe Pesci, The Irishman (+2)

3. Al Pacino, The Irishman (-1)

4. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes (-1)

5. Song Kang-ho, Parasite (+4)
   —

6. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (+1)

7. Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy (+3)

8. Sam Rockwell, Richard Jewell (NEW)

9. Alan Alda, Marriage Story (-4)

10. Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse (NEW)

DROPPED
John Lithgow, Bombshell (-5)
Sterling K. Brown, Waves (-3)

Best Original Screenplay

1. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (-)

2. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-)

3. Bong Joon-ho and Jin Won Han, Parasite (+1)

4. Lulu Wang, The Farewell (+1)

5. Pedro Almodovar, Pain and Glory (-2)
   —

6. Rian Johnson, Knives Out (NEW)

7. Scott Alexander and Larry Karaszewski, Dolemite Is My Name (+1)

8. Charles Randolph, Bombshell (-2)

9. Ronald Brownstein, Ben Safdie and Josh Safdie, Uncut Gems (NEW)

10. Trey Edward Schults, Waves (-3)

DROPPED
Scott Z. Burns, The Report (-2)
Jez Butterworth, John-Henry Butterworth, Jason Keller and James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari (-1)

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Steven Zaiillian, The Irishman (-)

2. Frank Cottrell-Boyce and Anthony McCarten, The Two Popes (-)

3. Greta Gerwig, Little Women (-)

4. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (+1)

5. Todd Phillips and Scott Silver, Joker (+3)
   —

6. Micah Fitzerman-Blue and Noah Harpster, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (-2)

7. Billy Ray, Richard Jewell (NEW)

8. Lorene Scafaria, Hustlers (-2)

9. Destin Daniel Cretton and Andrew Lanham, Just Mercy (-)

10. Matthew Michael Carnahan and Mario Correa, Dark Waters (-3)

DROPPED
Julian Fellowes, Downton Abbey (-1)

Best Animated Feature

1. Toy Story 4 (-)

2. Frozen II (-)

3. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (-)

4. Missing Link (-)

5. I Lost My Body (+1)
   —

6. Okko’s Inn (-1)

7. Weathering with You (NEW)

8. Abominable (-)

9. Funan (-2)

10. Children of the Sea (-1)

DROPPED
A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (-1)

Best Documentary Feature

1. Maiden (-)

2. Aquarela (-)

3. One Child Nation (-)

4. Apollo 11 (-)

5. Rolling Thunder Revue: A Bob Dylan Story by Martin Scorsese (-)
   —

6. The Biggest Little Farm (+2)

7. American Factory (-)

8. Toni Morrison: The Pieces I Am (+1)

9. Knock Down the House (-3)

10. Pavarotti (-)

Best International Feature

1. Parasite (South Korea) (-)

2. Pain and Glory (Spain) (-)

3. Les Misérables (France) (-)

4. Monos (Colombia) (+1)

5. The Painted Bird (Czech Republic) (-1)
   —

6. Our Mothers (Belgium) (-)

7. Atlantics (Senegal) (+2)

8. Honeyland (Macedonia) (-1)

9. Queen of Hearts (Denmark) (-1)

10. Dear Ex (Taiwan) (NEW)

DROPPED
Joy (Austria) (-1)

Best Cinematography

1. Roger Deakins, 1917 (+2)

2. Robert Richardson, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-1)

3. Rodrigo Prieto, The Irishman (-1)

4. Lawrence Sher, Joker (+3)

5. Phedon Papamichael, Ford v Ferrari (-1)
   —

6. Kyung-Pyo Hong, Parasite (+3)

7. Claire Mathon, Portrait Of A Lady On Fire (NEW)

8. Jörg Widmer, A Hidden Life (-3)

9. Jarin Blaschke, The Lighthouse (-3)

10. Drew Daniels, Waves (-2)

DROPPED
Christopher Ross, Cats (-1)

Best Costume Design

1. Arianne Phillips, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-)

2. Ruth E. Carter, Dolemite Is My Name (+2)

3. Jacqueline Durran, Little Women (-)

4. Julian Day, Rocketman (+1)

5. Jany Temime, Judy (-3)
   —

6. Mayes C. Rubeo, Jojo Rabbit (+3)

7. Anna Mary Scott Robbins, Downton Abbey (+1)

8. Christopher Peterson and Sandy Powell, The Irishman (-2)

9. Paco Delgado, Cats (-1)

10. Jacqueline Durran, 1917 (-)

Best Film Editing

1. Thelma Schoonmaker, The Irishman (-)

2. Michael McCusker, Ford v Ferrari (+1)

3. Fred Raskin, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-1)

4. Lee Smith, 1917 (-)

5. Jeff Groth, Joker (+4)
   —

6. Jinmo Yang, Parasite (+1)

7. Maryann Brandon and Stefan Grube, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (+1)

8. Ronald Bronstein and Ben Safdie, Uncut Gems (NEW)

9. John Poll, Bombshell (-4)

10. Jennifer Lame, Marriage Story (-4)

DROPPED
Melanie Oliver, Cats (-1)

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

1. Vivian Baker, Kazu Hiro and Anne Morgan, Bombshell (-)

2. Jeremy Woodhead, Judy (-)

3. Kay Georgiou and Nicki Ledermann, Joker (+3)

4. Fríða Aradóttir and Jennifer Bell, Little Women (+5)

5. Belinda Anderson and Angie Wells, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (-2)
   —

6. Debra Denson, Carla Farmer, Stacey Morris and Vera Steimberg Moder, Dolemite Is My Name (-1)

7. Barrie Gower, Lizzie Yianni Georgiou and Tapio Salmi, Rocketman (-)

8. Janine Rath and Heba Thorisdottir, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-)

9. Jorge Palacios, The Two Popes (+1)

10. Uxue Laguardia and Niamh O’Loan, Cats (-6)

Best Original Score

1. John Williams, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (-)

2. Thomas Newman, 1917 (+3)

3. Randy Newman, Marriage Story (+1)

4. Alexandre Desplat, Little Women (-1)

5. Marco Beltrami and Buck Sanders, Ford v Ferrari (-3)
   —

6. Hildur Guðnadóttir, Joker (+3)

7. Michael Giacchino, Jojo Rabbit (+1)

8. Nate Heller, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (-1)

9. Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, Waves (-3)

10. Daniel Pemberton, Motherless Brooklyn (NEW)

DROPPED
Scott Bomar, Dolemite Is My Name (-1)

Best Original Song

1. “Into the Unknown,” Frozen II

2. “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again,” Rocketman

3. “Stand Up,” Harriet

4. “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away,” Toy Story 4

5. “I’m Standing with You,” Breakthrough
   —

6. “Beautiful Ghosts,” Cats

7. “Spirit,” The Lion King

8. “Speechless,” Aladdin

9. “Control,” Her Smell

10. “Daily Battles,” Motherless Brooklyn

Best Production Design

1. Nancy Haigh and Barbara Ling, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-)

2. Dennis Gassner, 1917 (+1)

3. Rick Carter and Kevin Jenkins, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (-1)

4. Regina Graves and Bob Shaw, The Irishman (-)

5. Ha-Jun Lee, Parasite (-)
   —

6. Eve Stewart, Cats (-)

7. Mark Friedberg and Kris Moran, Joker (NEW)

8. Nora Sopková and Ra Vincent, Jojo Rabbit (-)

9. Claire Kaufman, Little Women (-2)

10. David Crank and David Schlesinger, Knives Out (NEW)

DROPPED
François Audouy and Peter Lando, Ford v Ferrari (-2)
David Hindle and Christian Huband, The Aeronauts (-1)

Best Sound Editing

1. The team from 1917 (+2)

2. Eric A. Norris and Donald Sylvester, Ford v Ferrari (-)

3. Shannon Mills and Samson Neslund, Avengers: Endgame (+1)

4. David Acord and Matthew Wood, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (-3)

5. Alan Robert Murray, Joker (NEW)
   —

6. Harry Cohen and Leo Marcil, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-1)

7. Philip Stockton, The Irishman (-)

8. Grant Elder, Ad Astra (-)

9. The team from Cats (-3)

10. Davide Anselmi and Frank E. Eulner, The Lion King (NEW)

DROPPED
Saoirse Christopherson and Lee Walpole, The Aeronauts (-2)
Teresa Eckton, J.R. Grubbs, Kimberly Patrick and Dee Selby, Captain Marvel (-1)

Best Sound Mixing

1. Scott Millan, Mark Taylor and Stuart Wilson, 1917 (+3)

2. Richard Bullock, Jr., Paul Massey and Steven Morrow, Ford v Ferrari (+1)

3. Christian P. Minkler, Michael Minkler and Mark Ulano, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-1)

4. Tom Johnson, Juan Peralta and John Pritchett, Avengers: Endgame (+2)

5. Ben Burtt and Andy Nelson, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (-4)
   —

6. Matthew Collinge, John Hayes and Mike Prestwood Smith, Rocketman (+2)

7. Tod A. Maitland, Tom Ozanich and Dean Zupancic, Joker (NEW)

8. Tom Fleischman, Eugene Gearty and Tod A. Maitland, The Irishman (-1)

9. Simon Hayes, Cats (-4)

10. Petr Forejt, Ai-Ling Lee and Andy Nelson, Jojo Rabbit (NEW)

DROPPED
Stuart Hilliker and Lee Walpole, The Aeronauts (-2)
Paul Cotterell and Johnathan Rush, Judy (-1)

Best Visual Effects

1. Dan DeLeeuw, Russell Earl, Kelly Port and Daniel Sudick, Avengers: Endgame (+1)

2. Roger Guyett and Dominic Tuohy, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (-1)

3. Pablo Helman and Jiwoong Kim, The Irishman (+1)

4. Robert Legato, Elliot Newman and Adam Valdez, The Lion King (-1)

5. Christopher Downs, Jiwoong Kim and Bradley Parker, Ad Astra (+3)
   —

6. Mark Hawker, Bryan Hirota and Bill Westenhofer, Gemini Man (-)

7. The team from 1917 (-)

8. The team from Ford v Ferrari (NEW)

9. The team from Cats (-4)

10. Romain Arnoux, Louis Morin and Jean-François Ferland, The Aeronauts (-1)

DROPPED
Daniel Sudick and Christopher Townsend, Captain Marvel (-2)

2019 Oscar Nomination Predictions (November)

After a rather uneventful October, November at last finds me shaking up some of these Oscar rankings.

A clear top tier has emerged, at least for the time being - Quentin Tarantino’s Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Martin Scorsese’s The Irishman, Noah Baumbach’s Marriage Story and Bong Joon-ho’s Parasite. A valid case, for my money at least, could be made for any of these four films scoring the Best Picture prize. I am unconvinced, barring Sam Mendes’ 1917 emerging both a critical and commercial juggernaut (at least the latter of which seems unlikely), that any other film can take top honors.

While the likes of Parasite and Bombshell are moving up in my rankings, I’m increasingly losing faith in contenders like The Report and Waves, which remain modestly in the mix but may have peaked in Oscar chatter months ago. Jojo Rabbit, Joker and Rocketman are all splashing around here and there - and entering my Best Picture top 15 for the first time, albeit outside the top 10 - and yes, despite word that it’s destined to miss some precursor deadlines, I still believe Cats is liable to make a showing, even if it’s only down in the tech races.

All that said, here are my updated Oscar predictions for the month of November. In parentheses you’ll see how many slots a contender has moved up or down since my October rankings. In some cases, I have dropped a film or performer entirely (sorry, The Good Liar and Terminator: Dark Fate). I remain hesitant to tackle the shorts, ditto Best Original Song, but will hopefully be able to give those a go in December.

Best Picture

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (+1)

2. The Irishman (+1)

3. Marriage Story (-2)

4. Parasite (+8)

5. Bombshell (+1)

6. Ford v Ferrari (-1)

7. 1917 (-3)

8. The Farewell (-)

9. The Two Popes (+1)
   —

10. Little Women (-1)

11. Jojo Rabbit (NEW)

12. Rocketman (NEW)

13. Joker (NEW)

14. Waves (-7)

15. Cats (-)

DROPPED
The Report (-5)
Dolemite Is My Name (-3)
Dark Waters (-2)

Best Director

1. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman (-)

2. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-)

3. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (-)

4. Bong Joon-ho, Parasite (+2)

5. Pedro Almodovar, Pain and Glory (-)
   —

6. Sam Mendes, 1917 (-2)

7. Jay Roach, Bombshell (-)

8. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (NEW)

9. Greta Gerwig, Little Women (-1)

10. Lulu Wang, The Farewell (-)

DROPPED
Trey Edward Schults, Waves (-2)

Best Actress

1. Renee Zellweger, Judy (-)

2. Charlize Theron, Bombshell (+2)

3. Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story (-1)

4. Saoirse Ronan, Little Women (+1)

5. Alfre Woodard, Clemency (-2)
   —

6. Cynthia Erivo, Harriet (+1)

7. Lupita Nyong’o, Us (+1)

8. Awkwafina, The Farewell (-2)

9. Jodie Turner-Smith, Queen & Slim (+1)

10. Mary Kay Place, Diane (NEW)

DROPPED
Helen Mirren, The Good Liar (-2)

Best Actor

1. Adam Driver, Marriage Story (-)

2. Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes (-)

3. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (+1)

4. Christian Bale, Ford v Ferrari (+1)

5. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker (+2)
   —

6. Robert De Niro, The Irishman (-)

7. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (+1)

8. Eddie Murphy, Dolemite Is My Name (-5)

9. Taron Egerton, Rocketman (NEW)

10. Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems (NEW)

DROPPED
Ian McKellen, The Good Liar (-2)
Mark Ruffalo, Dark Waters (-1)

Best Supporting Actress

1. Laura Dern, Marriage Story (-)

2. Annette Bening, The Report (-)

3. Nicole Kidman, Bombshell (+7)

4. Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey (-)

5. Margot Robbie, Bombshell (NEW)
   —

6. Margot Robbie, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-3)

7. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers (-)

8. Jennifer Hudson, Cats (-3)

9. Florence Pugh, Little Women (NEW)

10. Zhao Shuzhen, The Farewell (-4)

DROPPED
Julie Hagerty, Marriage Story (-3)
Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell (-2)

Best Supporting Actor

1. Al Pacino, The Irishman (-)

2. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-)

3. Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes (-)

4. Joe Pesci, The Irishman (+5)

5. Alan Alda, Marriage Story (-1)
   —

6. John Lithgow, Bombshell (-1)

7. Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (-)

8. Sterling K. Brown, Waves (-2)

9. Song Kang-ho, Parasite (NEW)

10. Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy (-2)

DROPPED
Ian McKellen, Cats (-1)

Best Original Screenplay

1. Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story (-)

2. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-)

3. Pedro Almodovar, Pain and Glory (-)

4. Bong Joon-ho and Jin Won Han, Parasite (-)

5. Lulu Wang, The Farewell (+1)
   —

6. Charles Randolph, Bombshell (+3)

7. Trey Edward Schults, Waves (-2)

8. Scott Alexander and Larry Karaszewski, Dolemite Is My Name (-)

9. Scott Z. Burns, The Report (-2)

10. Jez Butterworth, John-Henry Butterworth, Jason Keller and James Mangold, Ford v Ferrari (-)

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Steven Zaiillian, The Irishman (-)

2. Frank Cottrell-Boyce and Anthony McCarten, The Two Popes (-)

3. Greta Gerwig, Little Women (-)

4. Micah Fitzerman-Blue and Noah Harpster, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (-)

5. Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (+2)
   —

6. Lorene Scafaria, Hustlers (+2)

7. Matthew Michael Carnahan and Mario Correa, Dark Waters (-2)

8. Todd Phillips and Scott Silver, Joker (NEW)

9. Destin Daniel Cretton and Andrew Lanham, Just Mercy (-)

10. Julian Fellowes, Downton Abbey (-4)

DROPPED
Jeffrey Hatcher, The Good Liar (-1)

Best Animated Feature

1. Toy Story 4 (-)

2. Frozen II (-)

3. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (-)

4. Missing Link (-)

5. Okko’s Inn (-)
   —

6. I Lost My Body (-)

7. Funan (+2)

8. Abominable (-1)

9. Children of the Sea (NEW)

10. A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon (-2)

DROPPED
The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part (-1)

Best Documentary Feature

1. Maiden (-)

2. Aquarela (+1)

3. One Child Nation (+1)

4. Apollo 11 (-2)

5. Rolling Thunder Revue: A Bob Dylan Story (-)
   —

6. Knock Down the House (+4)

7. American Factory (NEW)

8. The Biggest Little Farm (NEW)

9. Toni Morrison: The Pieces I Am (NEW)

10. Pavarotti (-3)

DROPPED
Amazing Grace (-5)
Mike Wallace Is Here (-3)
Untouchable (-2)

Best International Feature

1. Parasite (South Korea) (+1)

2. Pain and Glory (Spain) (-1)

3. Les Misérables (France) (+4)

4. The Painted Bird (Czech Republic) (+1)

5. Monos (Colombia) (+5)
   —

6. Our Mothers (Belgium) (-3)

7. Honeyland (Macedonia) (-4)

8. Queen of Hearts (Denmark) (-4)

9. Atlantics (Senegal) (NEW)

10. Joy (Austria) (NEW)

DROPPED
The Delegation (Albania) (-5)
Heroic Losers (Argentina) (-3)

Best Cinematography

1. Robert Richardson, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (+1)

2. Rodrigo Prieto, The Irishman (-1)

3. Roger Deakins, 1917 (-)

4. Phedon Papamichael, Ford v Ferrari (-)

5. Jörg Widmer, A Hidden Life (-)
   —

6. Jarin Blaschke, The Lighthouse (+3)

7. Lawrence Sher, Joker (NEW)

8. Drew Daniels, Waves (-3)

9. Kyung-Pyo Hong, Parasite (NEW)

10. Christopher Ross, Cats (-2)

DROPPED
Edward Lachmann, Dark Waters (-4)
George Steel, The Aeronauts (-1)

Best Costume Design

1. Arianne Phillips, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-)

2. Jany Temime, Judy (+2)

3. Jacqueline Durran, Little Women (+2)

4. Ruth E. Carter, Dolemite Is My Name (-2)

5. Julian Day, Rocketman (NEW)
   —

6. Christopher Peterson and Sandy Powell, The Irishman (-3)

7. Paco Delgado, Cats (-1)

8. Anna Mary Scott Robbins, Downton Abbey (-1)

9. Mayes C. Rubeo, Jojo Rabbit (+1)

10. Jacqueline Durran, 1917 (-1)

DROPPED
Ellen Mirojnick, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil (-3)

Best Film Editing

1. Thelma Schoonmaker, The Irishman (-)

2. Fred Raskin, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-)

3. Michael McCusker, Ford v Ferrari (+1)

4. Lee Smith, 1917 (-1)

5. John Poll, Bombshell (-)
   —

6. Jennifer Lame, Marriage Story (-)

7. Jinmo Yang, Parasite (NEW)

8. Maryann Brandon and Stefan Grube, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (-1)

9. Jeff Groth, Joker (NEW)

10. Melanie Oliver, Cats (-1)

DROPPED
Trey Edward Shults and Isaac Hagy, Waves (-3)
Greg O’Bryant, The Report (-1)

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

1. Vivian Baker, Jaime Leigh McIntosh, Anne Morgan and Cristina Waltz, Bombshell (+1)

2. Jeremy Woodhead, Judy (-1)

3. Belinda Anderson and Angie Wells, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (-)

4. Uxue Laguardia and Niamh O’Loan, Cats (-1)

5. Debra Denson, Carla Farmer, Stacey Morris and Vera Steimberg Moder, Dolemite Is My Name (-)
   —

6. Kay Georgiou and Nicki Ledermann, Joker (+1)

7. Lizzie Georglou and Elizabeth Yianni-Georgiou, Rocketman (+3)

8. Janine Rath and Heba Thorisdottir, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-)

9. Fríða Aradóttir and Jennifer Bell, Little Women (-)

10. Jorge Palacios, The Two Popes (NEW)

DROPPED
Sacha Carter, Paul Gooch and David White, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil (-5)

Best Original Score

1. John Williams, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (-)

2. Marco Beltrami and Buck Sanders, Ford v Ferrari (+1)

3. Alexandre Desplat, Little Women (+2)

4. Randy Newman, Marriage Story (-1)

5. Thomas Newman, 1917 (-3)
   —

6. Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, Waves (-)

7. Nate Heller, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (+1)

8. Michael Giacchino, Jojo Rabbit (NEW)

9. Hildur Guðnadóttir, Joker (NEW)

10. Scott Bomar, Dolemite Is My Name (-3)

DROPPED
Carter Burwell, The Good Liar (-2)
Danny Elfman, Dumbo (-1)

Best Production Design

1. Nancy Haigh and Barbara Ling, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-)

2. Rick Carter and Kevin Jenkins, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (+2)

3. Dennis Gassner, 1917 (-1)

4. Regina Graves and Bob Shaw, The Irishman (-1)

5. Ha-Jun Lee, Parasite (NEW)
   —

6. Eve Stewart, Cats (-1)

7. Claire Kaufman, Little Women (-)

8. Nora Sopková and Ra Vincent, Jojo Rabbit (NEW)

9. François Audouy and Peter Lando, Ford v Ferrari (+1)

10. David Hindle and Christian Huband, The Aeronauts (-4)

DROPPED
Clay A. Griffith and Lisa K. Sessions, Dolemite Is My Name (-3)
Dominic Capon and Patrick Tatopoulos, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil (-2)

Best Sound Editing

1. David Acord and Matthew Wood, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (-)

2. Eric A. Norris and Donald Sylvester, Ford v Ferrari (+2)

3. The team from 1917 (-1)

4. Shannon Mills and Samson Neslund, Avengers: Endgame (-1)

5. Harry Cohen and Leo Marcil, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (-)
   —

6. The team from Cats (-)

7. Philip Stockton, The Irishman (+1)

8. Grant Elder, Ad Astra (NEW)

9. Saoirse Christopherson and Lee Walpole, The Aeronauts (-)

10. Teresa Eckton, J.R. Grubbs, Kimberly Patrick and Dee Selby, Captain Marvel (-)

DROPPED
Craig Henighan, Terminator: Dark Fate (-1)

Best Sound Mixing

1. Ben Burtt and Andy Nelson, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (-)

2. Michael Minkler, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (+1)

3. Richard Bullock, Jr., Paul Massey and Steven Morrow, Ford v Ferrari (+1)

4. Scott Millan, 1917 (-2)

5. Simon Hayes, Cats (-)
   —

6. Tom Johnson, Juan Peralta and Douglas Parker, Avengers: Endgame (-)

7. Tod A. Maitland, The Irishman (-)

8. John Hayes, Rocketman (+2)

9. Stuart Hilliker and Lee Walpole, The Aeronauts (-1)

10. Paul Cotterell and Johnathan Rush, Judy (-1)

Best Visual Effects

1. Roger Guyett and Dominic Tuohy, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (-)

2. Dan DeLeeuw, Russell Earl, Kelly Port and Daniel Sudick, Avengers: Endgame (-)

3. Robert Legato, Elliot Newman and Adam Valdez, The Lion King (+3)

4. Pablo Helman and Jiwoong Kim, The Irishman (-1)

5. The team from Cats (-1)
   —

6. Mark Hawker, Bryan Hirota and Bill Westenhofer, Gemini Man (+4)

7. The team from 1917 (-)

8. Christopher Downs, Jiwoong Kim and Bradley Parker, Ad Astra (NEW)

9. Romain Arnoux, Louis Morin and Jean-François Ferland, The Aeronauts (-3)

10. Daniel Sudick and Christopher Townsend, Captain Marvel (-2)

DROPPED
The team from Terminator: Dark Fate (-2)