FINAL 2020 Oscar Winner Predictions

Welp, here we go. It’s at last time to get off this dizzying, seemingly never-ending roller coaster ride of an awards season.

In spite of the pandemic, which pushed a plethora of contenders out of this year’s Oscar race and off to the next cycle, I’d say we ended up with a pretty robust set of nominees - and, fingers crossed in the end, winners. In addition to prime quality, this season has also proven exciting and unpredictable right up to the 11-’o-clock hour in several major categories, including a Best Actress showdown that’s all but impossible to project with confidence and will go down as an all-timer in competitiveness.

No need for an excessive intro - let’s just dive right into these lineups, an array of easy calls and flabbergasting head-scratchers…

Best Picture

1. Nomadland

2. Minari

3. The Trial of the Chicago 7

4. Promising Young Woman

5. Mank

6. Judas and the Black Messiah

7. The Father

8. Sound of Metal

If anything could have posed a legitimate threat to the Nomadland sweep, I suspect it would’ve been a Minari victory in SAG Ensemble. Instead, they went with The Trial of the Chicago 7, which lacks a Best Director nomination and is a film from Aaron Sorkin whose films, for whatever reason, tend to fall short with AMPAS. Promising Young Woman may win Best Actress and Best Original Screenplay, a plenty healthy combo, but I fear it may rank low, perhaps even last, on a fair chunk of ballots. In the end, this does look to be Nomadland’s to lose, though it’s not quite the slam dunk that is…

Best Director

1. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland

2. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari

3. David Fincher, Mank

4. Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman

5. Thomas Vinterberg, Another Round

Signed, sealed, delivered - and deservedly so.

Best Actress

1. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday

2. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman

3. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

4. Frances McDormand, Nomadland

5. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman

Uh…not Kirby? Though anyone who claims confidence in forecasting this race has lost their damn mind. That said, here’s how I break it down. Yes, she triumphed at BAFTA, which gives her a clear edge over Kirby, but the urgency to award McDormand a third Oscar this soon - even if her film is prevailing in Best Picture - doesn’t really seem to be there. And she would’ve surely fallen short to Mulligan at BAFTA had they not done the blue ribbon panel thing. Davis won SAG, which is significant, but she’s also only lost there for an individual prize on one occasion, for Doubt. She truly is the Queen of the SAG Awards. But I just can’t predict her and her leading man to win without Ma Rainey in the Best Picture race - never has a film won these two prizes without the top nomination. If Davis were Oscar-less, this might be a different conversation. Ultimately, even with SAG and BAFTA going to other contenders, my gut says it’ll be Golden Globe winner Day or Critics Choice winner Mulligan taking home the Oscar. Day’s turn - a flashy, tour de force portrayal of a real-life entertainer - recalls recent Best Actress winners like Renee Zellweger and Marion Cotillard. But she’s also the lone nomination for a film that otherwise scored a mixed critical reception. Unlike Day, Mulligan’s film has other recognition - and in major categories to boot. But the momentum she should’ve scored from a BAFTA win was never able to come to fruition. Who knows what’ll happen - no matter who triumphs, it’ll feel like something of a surprise. But Day’s performance sure does check off a lot of the boxes that generally amount to an Oscar win.

Best Actor

1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father

3. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal

4. Steven Yeun, Minari

5. Gary Oldman, Mank

Hopkins has a smidge of late momentum with a BAFTA win and folks finally getting around to The Father via VOD. Boseman, however, remains the commanding favorite, even with Ma Rainey missing atop the ballot.

Best Supporting Actress

1. Youn Yuh-jung, Minari

2. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy

3. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

4. Amanda Seyfried, Mank

5. Olivia Colman, The Father

With both SAG and BAFTA victories, Youn has more than just a touch of 11-’o-clock-hour momentum - she’s all but leaving her competition in the dust. Some AMPAS members may be inclined to help Close avoid tying Peter O’Toole’s 0-for-8 record as biggest Oscar loser among actors but she’s hardly supporting that cause by once again chatting up a Sunset Boulevard film. The boost Bakalova scored from the Critics Choice win seems to have largely dissipated and though Seyfried is actually running a terrific campaign, Mank feels DOA. ‘Tis a shame Colman hasn’t won anything for her devastating turn.

Best Supporting Actor

1. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah

2. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal

3. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7

4. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami

5. Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah

The biggest acting shoo-in of the night - and no, Kaluuya won’t split votes with Stanfield.

Best Original Screenplay

1. Promising Young Woman

2. Minari

3. The Trial of the Chicago 7

4. Judas and the Black Messiah

5. Sound of Metal

If I’m Team Nomadland, I’m nervous if Minari or The Trial of the Chicago 7 picks this up, which is within the realm of possibility and could be indicative of a potential Best Picture upset. Alas, I still feel reasonably confident it’ll be Critics Choice/WGA/BAFTA winner Emerald Fennell, especially since, as already stated, AMPAS is not head over heels for Sorkin.

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. The Father

2. Nomadland

3. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

4. One Night in Miami

5. The White Tiger

This feels like a legit coin flip between BAFTA winner The Father and Critics Choice winner Nomadland, with Borat perhaps a bit of a dark horse, less because of its WGA victory (The Father and Nomadland were ineligible) but more as a means of honoring Cohen’s robust year. Remarkable how sharply One Night in Miami faded over the course of the season - and even more perplexing that Ma Rainey missed the cut here.

Best Animated Feature

1. Soul

2. Wolfwalkers

3. Over the Moon

4. Onward

5. A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon

Much as I hesitate to use the l-word…lock.

Best Documentary Feature

1. My Octopus Teacher

2. Time

3. Collective

4. The Mole Agent

5. Crip Camp

While none of these can altogether be counted out, My Octopus Teacher, with PGA and BAFTA wins, is in the driver’s seat.

Best International Feature

1. Another Round (Denmark)

2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia and Herzegovina)

3. Collective (Romania)

4. The Man Who Sold His Skin (Tunisia)

5. Better Days (Hong Kong)

With a Best Director bid to boot, Another Round should cruise to a comfortable victory. Poor Collective.

As for the following trio of categories, I can’t say I have ample commentary to share for each - other than to say, I have viewed the 15 nominees and will try to forecast based on what I suspect most floats AMPAS’ boat…

Best Animated Short Film

1. If Anything Happens I Love You

2. Opera

3. Burrow

4. Genius Loci

5. Yes-People

Best Documentary Short Subject

1. A Love Song for Latasha

2. A Concerto Is Not a Conversation

3. Colette

4. Hunger Ward

5. Do Not Split

Best Live Action Short Film

1. The Letter Room

2. Two Distant Strangers

3. The Present

4. Feeling Through

5. White Eye

Best Cinematography

1. Nomadland

2. Mank

3. The Trial of the Chicago 7

4. Judas and the Black Messiah

5. News of the World

Yes, Mank triumphed with ASC but, barring a substantially weaker evening than expected for Nomadland - or a curiously more lively one for the Fincher film - expect the Zhao picture to pick this up.

Best Costume Design

1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

2. Emma

3. Mank

4. Mulan

5. Pinocchio

At last, a second win for the legendary Ann Roth!

Best Film Editing

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7

2. Sound of Metal

3. Nomadland

4. The Father

5. Promising Young Woman

Here’s the most suspenseful of the technical races. Promising Young Woman, while a worthy nominee, is probably not prevailing and nor is The Father (which would be my personal pick for the win). If AMPAS falls madly in love with Nomadland, it’s plausible Zhao scores what would likely be her fourth Oscar of the night - but even I’m not convinced they’ll go that bananas for it. If Chicago 7, which did score at ACE, is going to win anywhere, it’s probably here - and the improbable, albeit not impossible combo of this and an Original Screenplay win would spook the daylights out of Nomadland in Best Picture. It’s a close call between it and Sound of Metal, which recently scored at BAFTA and earlier tied Chicago 7 at Critics Choice. I’m inclined to say Chicago 7 by a hair, keeping it from a complete shutout.

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

2. Pinocchio

3. Hillbilly Elegy

4. Mank

5. Emma

The odds remain long but if Close somehow triumphs, perhaps Hillbilly Elegy will prevail here too, much like Meryl Streep and The Iron Lady back in the day. And if members go for the most makeup, Pinocchio might just pull this off. In the end, however, this remains Ma Rainey’s to lose.

Best Original Score

1. Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross and Jon Batiste, Soul

2. Emile Mosseri, Minari

3. Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, Mank

4. James Newton Howard, News of the World

5. Terence Blanchard, Da 5 Bloods

Don’t expect any Reznor-Ross vote-splitting here - it’ll be an easy, breezy win for Soul.

Best Original Song

1. “Io si (Seen),” The Life Ahead

2. “Speak Now,” One Night in Miami

3. “Husavik,” Eurovision Song Contest

4. “Fight for You,” Judas and the Black Messiah

5. “Hear My Voice,” The Trial of the Chicago 7

Could it be? Could this at last be the year 11-time Oscar loser Diane Warren, composer of “Io si (Seen),” emerges triumphant? It just might. She picked up the Golden Globe and, while the HFPA and AMPAS don’t always line up in this category (they’ve matched six times over the past 10 years), it was a notable win that gave Warren’s campaign the oomph it needed to remain formidable. “Speak Now” looked like a slam dunk early on but One Night in Miami has overall seen its awards season relevancy dwindle. Its tune did triumph at Critics Choice but that membership also embraced the film more than AMPAS has. That isn’t to say “Speak Now” is down and out - if anything, this race strikes me as a legit coin flip - but the stars have aligned in a way that has rarely, if ever happened for Warren. If there’s a spoiler, it might just be the crowd-pleasing “Husavik,” that rare Best Original Song contender that isn’t simply played over the end credits.

Best Production Design

1. Mank

2. The Father

3. Tenet

4. News of the World

5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Mank’s momentum vanished many moons ago but what could possibly top it here to result in an 0-for-10 shutout? The design on The Father is brilliant and nuanced but, in the end, odds are AMPAS eats up the Old Hollywood vibes and throws Mank a bone.

Best Sound

1. Sound of Metal

2. Soul

3. Mank

4. News of the World

5. Greyhound

Had Soul somehow made the Best Picture cut, I might consider it for an upset here. Alas, this should be a reasonably easy one for Sound of Metal.

Best Visual Effects

1. Tenet

2. The Midnight Sky

3. Mulan

4. Love and Monsters

5. The One and Only Ivan

Reception for Tenet, critically and commercially, was lukewarm and Warner Bros. has barely campaigned for it but what’s the alternative?

2020 Final Oscar Nomination Predictions

In the words of the great Barry Manilow, looks like we made it.

On the heels of the most deliciously dizzying awards season I can recall, culminating in the absolute madness that was the BAFTA nominations, we will at last be graced with Oscar nominations this coming Monday. And jaws will again drop because, frankly, big snubs are just unavoidable, particularly in the category of Best Supporting Actress, which has proven chaotic to the point where there’s barely consensus on two or three likely nominees, let alone four or five. But we’ll get there shortly.

While Oscar noms morning could prove me wrong, my sense is the following films have peaked at just the right time in terms of awards season momentum: Judas and the Black Messiah, Minari, Nomadland and Promising Young Woman. It would be flabbergasting to witness the latter three films not earn a plethora of recognition and while Judas may not be making the cut in say, Best Director or Best Actor, it almost surely will not sport a lone nom for star Daniel Kaluuya (something I’d feared earlier in the season).

I don’t get that same feeling of momentum from the likes of Mank and One Night in Miami, which are still poised to earn their fair share of nominations but no longer ring as formidable for major wins. Worse off are contenders like Da 5 Bloods and News of the World, which were presumed strong earlier in the season but now may not make much of a splash at all in Oscar noms.

In terms of surprises, one gut feeling I can’t seem to shake is an Aaron Sorkin snub in Best Director, with Regina King edging him out. For whatever reason, AMPAS has a history of sidelining Sorkin when he’s expected to make the cut - healthy precursor runs for A Few Good Men, The American President, Charlie Wilson’s War and Steve Jobs did not produce Oscar nominations. I’d also keep a close eye on Shaka King perhaps grabbing that slot.

I don’t sense shocks are on the horizon in the two lead acting categories, though Mads Mikkelsen should be watched in Best Actor and several contenders could grab that fifth slot in Best Actress that I suspect ultimately goes to Andra Day, even if she missed at SAG and BAFTA. How sad it is that the magnificent Delroy Lindo and Sophia Loren are now improbable long shots!

As for the two supporting fields, well…it’s a hot mess.

Best Supporting Actor is a tad less haphazard, in that it at least sports three contenders - Daniel Kaluuya, Leslie Odom, Jr. and Sacha Baron Cohen - who resemble shoo-ins. Beyond that, it’s a free-for-all among Chadwick Boseman, Alan Kim, Jared Leto, Paul Raci and David Strathairn for the final two slots, with Bill Murray perhaps still somewhat in contention, though On the Rocks has steeply faded in awards season relevancy. While I’m terrified to jinx them, my gut does say it’s Raci and Strathairn taking the two spots. God help us if Leto makes it.

Then…deep breath…there’s Best Supporting Actress, a category I’ve found myself hopelessly staring at in recent days, at a loss of how to properly gauge.

While neither is quite on the level of say, Kaluuya, in terms of a nomination lock, I do think both Olivia Colman and Youn Yuh-jung are reasonably safe bets, particularly if Minari is in for a strong overall showing. Beyond that, it’s a nightmare.

Maria Bakalova checked off all the boxes precursors-wise but AMPAS’ historical aversion to comedy won’t be a breeze to overcome. Ellen Burstyn is an AMPAS favorite and surfaced at Critics Choice but what should’ve been an easy SAG nomination turned into a stunning, campaign-derailing snub. Glenn Close landed at the Globes, Critics Choice and SAG but it remains unclear whether she can withstand the hideous Hillbilly Elegy reviews to an eighth career Oscar nom. Dominique Fishback has been mostly MIA this season but her film is peaking at the right time and she just surfaced at BAFTA. Jodie Foster pulled the Globes upset but hasn’t really shown up elsewhere, including at BAFTA where her film was otherwise embraced. Amanda Seyfried once seemed like a surefire contender for the win here but that SAG snub changed everything. And last but hardly least, Helena Zengel landed at the Globes and SAG but News of the World hasn’t exactly set the awards season on fire.

You could make a convincing case with any trio here, though I do think Burstyn and Zengel are perhaps sitting in a slightly lower tier. I’m sticking with Close, who checked off the boxes she needed with CC/GG/SAG, and Seyfried, whose film should make a nice showing in nominations, even if it’s doomed in terms of wins. And then I’ve got Fishback in the final slot, edging out Bakalova and Foster. This is based on the presumption Judas has an overall marvelous morning - if it doesn’t, Fishback likely misses and Bakalova takes it.

Downballot, keep an eye on the exceedingly tight race for the fifth slot in Best Adapted Screenplay, where Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, First Cow, News of the World and The White Tiger are duking it out. Watch too Minari and The Trial of the Chicago 7 in the technical categories - if they are to stand a fighting chance against Nomadland for the top prize, following a SAG Ensemble win for one of them, they’ll want to build as robust as possible an all-around show of support (in the way Parasite’s Film Editing and Production Design noms were indicative of widespread love and thus a legit shot at Best Picture).

So, I think I’ll leave it there. Bottom line is we’re not in for a snoozefest come Monday morning - albeit not quite the insanity of what BAFTA offered up but a slate of nominees that nonetheless inspires at least a handful of gasps.

Who do you have making the cut?

Best Picture

1. Nomadland

2. The Trial of the Chicago 7

3. Mank

4. Minari

5. Promising Young Woman

6. One Night in Miami

7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

8. The Father

9. Judas and the Black Messiah
   —

10. Soul

11. Sound of Metal

12. The United States vs. Billie Holiday

13. Da 5 Bloods

14. News of the World

15. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

Best Director

1. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland

2. David Fincher, Mank

3. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari

4. Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman

5. Regina King, One Night in Miami
   —

6. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7

7. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah

8. Florian Zeller, The Father

9. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods

10. Paul Greengrass, News of the World

Best Actress

1. Frances McDormand, Nomadland

2. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman

3. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

4. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman

5. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
   —

6. Rosamund Pike, I Care a Lot

7. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy

8. Zendaya, Malcolm and Marie

9. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead

10. Yeri Han, Minari

Best Actor

1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father

3. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal

4. Steven Yeun, Minari

5. Gary Oldman, Mank
   —

6. Mads Mikkelsen, Another Round

7. Tahar Rahim, The Mauritanian

8. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods

9. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami

10. Ben Affleck, The Way Back

Best Supporting Actress

1. Olivia Colman, The Father

2. Youn Yuh-jung, Minari

3. Amanda Seyfried, Mank

4. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy

5. Dominique Fishback, Judas and the Black Messiah
   —

6. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

7. Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian

8. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman

9. Helena Zengel, News of the World

10. Priyanka Chopra Jonas, The White Tiger

Best Supporting Actor

1. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah

2. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami

3. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7

4. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal

5. David Strathairn, Nomadland
   —

6. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods

7. Jared Leto, The Little Things

8. Alan Kim, Minari

9. Bill Murray, On the Rocks

10. Clarke Peters, Da 5 Bloods

Best Original Screenplay

1. Minari

2. Promising Young Woman

3. The Trial of the Chicago 7

4. Mank

5. Judas and the Black Messiah
   —

6. Soul

7. Sound of Metal

8. Da 5 Bloods

9. Palm Springs

10. Never Rarely Sometimes Always

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Nomadland

2. The Father

3. One Night in Miami

4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

5. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
   —

6. The White Tiger

7. News of the World

8. First Cow

9. The Mauritanian

10. The United States vs. Billie Holiday

Best Animated Feature

1. Soul

2. Wolfwalkers

3. Over the Moon

4. Onward

5. The Willoughbys
   —

6. The Croods: A New Age

7. Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon

8. Earwig and the Witch

9. No. 7 Cherry Lane

10. Bombay Rose

Best Documentary Feature

1. Time

2. Collective

3. Welcome to Chechnya

4. The Truffle Hunters

5. The Painter and the Thief
   —

6. All In: The Fight for Democracy

7. Dick Johnson Is Dead

8. Boys State

9. My Octopus Teacher

10. Crip Camp

Best International Feature

1. Another Round

2. Quo Vadis, Aida?

3. Collective

4. La Llorana

5. Night of the Kings
   —

6. A Sun

7. The Mole Agent

8. Two of Us

9. The Man Who Sold His Skin

10. Hope

Best Animated Short Film

1. If Anything Happens, I Love You

2. Out

3. Opera

4. The Snail and the Whale

5. To Gerard
   —

6. Kapaemahu

7. Genius Loci

8. Burrow

9. Traces

10. Yes-People

Best Documentary Short Subject

1. A Love Song for Latasha

2. Hunger Ward

3. The Speed Cubers

4. A Concerto is a Conversation

5. Colette
   —

6. What Would Sophia Loren Do?

7. Abortion Helpline, This Is Lisa

8. Do Not Split

9. Call Center Blues

10. Hysterical Girl

Best Live Action Short Film

1. The Letter Room

2. Da Yie

3. Bittu

4. The Human Voice

5. The Present
   —

6. Two Distant Strangers

7. White Eye

8. The Kicksled Choir

9. Feeling Through

10. The Van

Best Cinematography

1. Nomadland

2. Mank

3. News of the World

4. Judas and the Black Messiah

5. Minari
   —

6. The Trial of the Chicago 7

7. Tenet

8. Da 5 Bloods

9. Cherry

10. The Midnight Sky

Best Costume Design

1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

2. Mank

3. Emma

4. Ammonite

5. Mulan
   —

6. Promising Young Woman

7. The United States vs. Billie Holiday

8. The Personal History of David Copperfield

9. Birds of Prey

10. One Night in Miami

Best Film Editing

1. Nomadland

2. The Trial of the Chicago 7

3. Mank

4. Minari

5. Judas and the Black Messiah
   —

6. Promising Young Woman

7. Sound of Metal

8. The Father

9. Tenet

10. News of the World

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

2. Mank

3. Hillbilly Elegy

4. Birds of Prey

5. Emma
   —

6. Pinocchio

7. One Night in Miami

8. The Little Things

9. The Glorias

10. Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey

Best Original Score

1. Soul

2. Mank

3. News of the World

4. Minari

5. The Midnight Sky
   —

6. The Little Things

7. Promising Young Woman

8. The Trial of the Chicago 7

9. Tenet

10. The Life Ahead

Best Original Song

1. “Speak Now,” One Night in Miami

2. “Io Si (Seen),” The Life Ahead

3. “Hear My Voice,” The Trial of the Chicago 7

4. “Fight for You,” Judas and the Black Messiah

5. “Turntables,” All In: The Fight for Democracy
   —

6. “Rain Song,” Minari

7. “Wuhan Flu,” Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

8. “Make It Work,” Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey

9. “Loyal Brave True,” Mulan

10. “Husavik,” Eurovision Song Contest

Best Production Design

1. Mank

2. The Father

3. News of the World

4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

5. Emma
   —

6. Tenet

7. Mulan

8. Birds of Prey

9. The Personal History of David Copperfield

10. The Midnight Sky

Best Sound

1. Sound of Metal

2. Soul

3. Mank

4. News of the World

5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
   —

6. Greyhound

7. Tenet

8. Nomadland

9. The Trial of the Chicago 7

10. The Midnight Sky

Best Visual Effects

1. Tenet

2. The Midnight Sky

3. Welcome to Chechnya

4. The One and Only Ivan

5. Birds of Prey
   —

6. Soul

7. Mank

8. Mulan

9. Bloodshot

10. Love and Monsters

2020 Oscar Nomination Predictions (September)

Howdy, friends!

By this point in years past, I’d have already released my first set of Summer Oscar Predictions and be in the midst of revising them for an updated September set. Having seen a grand total of four - no, not 14…4 - 2020 releases at this point, let’s just say I haven’t exactly been engaged or inspired to explore what is destined to be the most haphazard of awards seasons.

With more trailers dropping and theaters (inexplicably) starting to reopen their doors, however, I figured I’d go ahead and give this a shot - at this point, just in the top eight categories.

If we’re indeed going to have an Oscars on April 25, I’m hopeful more contenders will be added to the calendar, as the film landscape ahead strikes me as atypically, if understandably, barren. I’m not sold, for instance, on West Side Story proving a force to be reckoned with or Da 5 Bloods even being remembered by the time 2021 rolls around, yet I couldn’t help but include them, including in Best Picture. I’m even less convinced Dune, which I’ve seen grace countless pundits’ major predictions, will be a player beyond technical categories but perhaps it too could break through.

At this point, of course, with many of these films still unseen, these hunches are total shots in the dark. Mank and The Trial of the Chicago 7 sure look formidable on paper but the Academy has broken the hearts of David Fincher and Aaron Sorkin before. And I’m super excited and curious to see what comes of Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, which might be my favorite of all August Wilson works, yet I wouldn’t necessarily call that a popular opinion (its forgotten Broadway revival, with Whoopi Goldberg and Charles S. Dutton, was a critical and commercial disaster).

And then, of course, there’s Glenn. And Michelle Pfeiffer! Imagine if both Dangerous Liaisons ladies somehow manage to win. The dream of that alone gets me pretty pumped about Oscar season, even if such sorely overdue victories are accepted over Zoom.

One year ago, I was predicted the likes of Waves in Best Picture and Jennifer Hudson in Best Supporting Actress (for Cats, obvs), so of course take these bad boys with a grain of salt… :)

Best Picture

1. Mank

2. The Trial of the Chicago 7

3. News of the World

4. Hillbilly Elegy

5. Soul

6. Nomadland

7. The Father

8. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

9. West Side Story

10. Da 5 Bloods
    —

11. Ammonite

12. Respect

13. Minari

14. Judas and the Black Messiah

15. One Night in Miami

Best Director

1. David Fincher, Mank

2. Paul Greengrass, News of the World

3. Ron Howard, Hillbilly Elegy

4. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7

5. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
   —

6. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari

7. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods

8. Florian Zeller, The Father

9. Francis Lee, Ammonite

10. Regina King, One Night in Miami

Best Actress

1. Frances McDormand, Nomadland

2. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

3. Kate Winslet, Ammonite

4. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy

5. Michelle Pfeiffer, French Exit
   —

6. Jennifer Hudson, Respect

7. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead

8. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman

9. Jennifer Lawrence, Red, White and Water

10. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday

Best Actor

1. Anthony Hopkins, The Father

2. Tom Hanks, News of the World

3. Gary Oldman, Mank

4. Eddie Redmayne, The Trial of the Chicago 7

5. Joaquin Phoenix, C’mon C’mon
   —

6. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah

7. Bill Murray, On the Rocks

8. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods

9. Gabriel Basso, Hillbilly Elegy

10. Steven Yeun, Minari

Best Supporting Actress

1. Olivia Colman, The Father

2. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy

3. Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite

4. Meryl Streep, The Prom

5. Helena Zengel, News of the World
   —

6. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story

7. Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans

8. Audra McDonald, Respect

9. Amanda Seyfried, Mank

10. Youn Yuh-jung, Minari

Best Supporting Actor

1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

2. David Strathairn, Nomadland

3. Tom Pelphrey, Mank

4. Mark Rylance, The Trial of the Chicago 7

5. Frank Langella, The Trial of the Chicago 7
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6. Jeremy Strong, The Trial of the Chicago 7

7. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, The Trial of the Chicago 7

8. Richard Jenkins, The Humans

9. Martin Sheen, Judas and the Black Messiah

10. Glynn Turman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Best Original Screenplay

1. Jack Fincher, Mank

2. Pete Docter, Tina Fey, Mike Jones and Kemp Powers, Soul

3. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7

4. Spike Lee, Danny Bilson, Pail De Meo and Kevin Willmott, Da 5 Bloods

5. Francis Lee, Ammonite
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6. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari

7. Mike Mills, C’mon C’mon

8. Sofia Coppola, On the Rocks

9. Shaka King and Will Berson, Judas and the Black Messiah

10. Eliza Hittman, Never Rarely Sometimes Always

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller, The Father

2. Ruben Santiago-Hudson, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

3. Vanessa Taylor, Hillbilly Elegy

4. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland

5. Luke Davies and Paul Greengrass, News of the World
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6. Patrick deWitt, French Exit

7. Suzan Lori-Parks, The United States vs. Billie Holiday

8. Kemp Powers, One Night in Miami

9. Stephen Karam, The Humans

10. Iain Morris and Taika Waititi, Next Goal Wins