2020 Final Oscar Nomination Predictions

In the words of the great Barry Manilow, looks like we made it.

On the heels of the most deliciously dizzying awards season I can recall, culminating in the absolute madness that was the BAFTA nominations, we will at last be graced with Oscar nominations this coming Monday. And jaws will again drop because, frankly, big snubs are just unavoidable, particularly in the category of Best Supporting Actress, which has proven chaotic to the point where there’s barely consensus on two or three likely nominees, let alone four or five. But we’ll get there shortly.

While Oscar noms morning could prove me wrong, my sense is the following films have peaked at just the right time in terms of awards season momentum: Judas and the Black Messiah, Minari, Nomadland and Promising Young Woman. It would be flabbergasting to witness the latter three films not earn a plethora of recognition and while Judas may not be making the cut in say, Best Director or Best Actor, it almost surely will not sport a lone nom for star Daniel Kaluuya (something I’d feared earlier in the season).

I don’t get that same feeling of momentum from the likes of Mank and One Night in Miami, which are still poised to earn their fair share of nominations but no longer ring as formidable for major wins. Worse off are contenders like Da 5 Bloods and News of the World, which were presumed strong earlier in the season but now may not make much of a splash at all in Oscar noms.

In terms of surprises, one gut feeling I can’t seem to shake is an Aaron Sorkin snub in Best Director, with Regina King edging him out. For whatever reason, AMPAS has a history of sidelining Sorkin when he’s expected to make the cut - healthy precursor runs for A Few Good Men, The American President, Charlie Wilson’s War and Steve Jobs did not produce Oscar nominations. I’d also keep a close eye on Shaka King perhaps grabbing that slot.

I don’t sense shocks are on the horizon in the two lead acting categories, though Mads Mikkelsen should be watched in Best Actor and several contenders could grab that fifth slot in Best Actress that I suspect ultimately goes to Andra Day, even if she missed at SAG and BAFTA. How sad it is that the magnificent Delroy Lindo and Sophia Loren are now improbable long shots!

As for the two supporting fields, well…it’s a hot mess.

Best Supporting Actor is a tad less haphazard, in that it at least sports three contenders - Daniel Kaluuya, Leslie Odom, Jr. and Sacha Baron Cohen - who resemble shoo-ins. Beyond that, it’s a free-for-all among Chadwick Boseman, Alan Kim, Jared Leto, Paul Raci and David Strathairn for the final two slots, with Bill Murray perhaps still somewhat in contention, though On the Rocks has steeply faded in awards season relevancy. While I’m terrified to jinx them, my gut does say it’s Raci and Strathairn taking the two spots. God help us if Leto makes it.

Then…deep breath…there’s Best Supporting Actress, a category I’ve found myself hopelessly staring at in recent days, at a loss of how to properly gauge.

While neither is quite on the level of say, Kaluuya, in terms of a nomination lock, I do think both Olivia Colman and Youn Yuh-jung are reasonably safe bets, particularly if Minari is in for a strong overall showing. Beyond that, it’s a nightmare.

Maria Bakalova checked off all the boxes precursors-wise but AMPAS’ historical aversion to comedy won’t be a breeze to overcome. Ellen Burstyn is an AMPAS favorite and surfaced at Critics Choice but what should’ve been an easy SAG nomination turned into a stunning, campaign-derailing snub. Glenn Close landed at the Globes, Critics Choice and SAG but it remains unclear whether she can withstand the hideous Hillbilly Elegy reviews to an eighth career Oscar nom. Dominique Fishback has been mostly MIA this season but her film is peaking at the right time and she just surfaced at BAFTA. Jodie Foster pulled the Globes upset but hasn’t really shown up elsewhere, including at BAFTA where her film was otherwise embraced. Amanda Seyfried once seemed like a surefire contender for the win here but that SAG snub changed everything. And last but hardly least, Helena Zengel landed at the Globes and SAG but News of the World hasn’t exactly set the awards season on fire.

You could make a convincing case with any trio here, though I do think Burstyn and Zengel are perhaps sitting in a slightly lower tier. I’m sticking with Close, who checked off the boxes she needed with CC/GG/SAG, and Seyfried, whose film should make a nice showing in nominations, even if it’s doomed in terms of wins. And then I’ve got Fishback in the final slot, edging out Bakalova and Foster. This is based on the presumption Judas has an overall marvelous morning - if it doesn’t, Fishback likely misses and Bakalova takes it.

Downballot, keep an eye on the exceedingly tight race for the fifth slot in Best Adapted Screenplay, where Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, First Cow, News of the World and The White Tiger are duking it out. Watch too Minari and The Trial of the Chicago 7 in the technical categories - if they are to stand a fighting chance against Nomadland for the top prize, following a SAG Ensemble win for one of them, they’ll want to build as robust as possible an all-around show of support (in the way Parasite’s Film Editing and Production Design noms were indicative of widespread love and thus a legit shot at Best Picture).

So, I think I’ll leave it there. Bottom line is we’re not in for a snoozefest come Monday morning - albeit not quite the insanity of what BAFTA offered up but a slate of nominees that nonetheless inspires at least a handful of gasps.

Who do you have making the cut?

Best Picture

1. Nomadland

2. The Trial of the Chicago 7

3. Mank

4. Minari

5. Promising Young Woman

6. One Night in Miami

7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

8. The Father

9. Judas and the Black Messiah
   —

10. Soul

11. Sound of Metal

12. The United States vs. Billie Holiday

13. Da 5 Bloods

14. News of the World

15. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

Best Director

1. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland

2. David Fincher, Mank

3. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari

4. Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman

5. Regina King, One Night in Miami
   —

6. Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7

7. Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah

8. Florian Zeller, The Father

9. Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods

10. Paul Greengrass, News of the World

Best Actress

1. Frances McDormand, Nomadland

2. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman

3. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

4. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman

5. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
   —

6. Rosamund Pike, I Care a Lot

7. Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy

8. Zendaya, Malcolm and Marie

9. Sophia Loren, The Life Ahead

10. Yeri Han, Minari

Best Actor

1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father

3. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal

4. Steven Yeun, Minari

5. Gary Oldman, Mank
   —

6. Mads Mikkelsen, Another Round

7. Tahar Rahim, The Mauritanian

8. Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods

9. Kingsley Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami

10. Ben Affleck, The Way Back

Best Supporting Actress

1. Olivia Colman, The Father

2. Youn Yuh-jung, Minari

3. Amanda Seyfried, Mank

4. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy

5. Dominique Fishback, Judas and the Black Messiah
   —

6. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

7. Jodie Foster, The Mauritanian

8. Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman

9. Helena Zengel, News of the World

10. Priyanka Chopra Jonas, The White Tiger

Best Supporting Actor

1. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah

2. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami

3. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7

4. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal

5. David Strathairn, Nomadland
   —

6. Chadwick Boseman, Da 5 Bloods

7. Jared Leto, The Little Things

8. Alan Kim, Minari

9. Bill Murray, On the Rocks

10. Clarke Peters, Da 5 Bloods

Best Original Screenplay

1. Minari

2. Promising Young Woman

3. The Trial of the Chicago 7

4. Mank

5. Judas and the Black Messiah
   —

6. Soul

7. Sound of Metal

8. Da 5 Bloods

9. Palm Springs

10. Never Rarely Sometimes Always

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Nomadland

2. The Father

3. One Night in Miami

4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

5. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
   —

6. The White Tiger

7. News of the World

8. First Cow

9. The Mauritanian

10. The United States vs. Billie Holiday

Best Animated Feature

1. Soul

2. Wolfwalkers

3. Over the Moon

4. Onward

5. The Willoughbys
   —

6. The Croods: A New Age

7. Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon

8. Earwig and the Witch

9. No. 7 Cherry Lane

10. Bombay Rose

Best Documentary Feature

1. Time

2. Collective

3. Welcome to Chechnya

4. The Truffle Hunters

5. The Painter and the Thief
   —

6. All In: The Fight for Democracy

7. Dick Johnson Is Dead

8. Boys State

9. My Octopus Teacher

10. Crip Camp

Best International Feature

1. Another Round

2. Quo Vadis, Aida?

3. Collective

4. La Llorana

5. Night of the Kings
   —

6. A Sun

7. The Mole Agent

8. Two of Us

9. The Man Who Sold His Skin

10. Hope

Best Animated Short Film

1. If Anything Happens, I Love You

2. Out

3. Opera

4. The Snail and the Whale

5. To Gerard
   —

6. Kapaemahu

7. Genius Loci

8. Burrow

9. Traces

10. Yes-People

Best Documentary Short Subject

1. A Love Song for Latasha

2. Hunger Ward

3. The Speed Cubers

4. A Concerto is a Conversation

5. Colette
   —

6. What Would Sophia Loren Do?

7. Abortion Helpline, This Is Lisa

8. Do Not Split

9. Call Center Blues

10. Hysterical Girl

Best Live Action Short Film

1. The Letter Room

2. Da Yie

3. Bittu

4. The Human Voice

5. The Present
   —

6. Two Distant Strangers

7. White Eye

8. The Kicksled Choir

9. Feeling Through

10. The Van

Best Cinematography

1. Nomadland

2. Mank

3. News of the World

4. Judas and the Black Messiah

5. Minari
   —

6. The Trial of the Chicago 7

7. Tenet

8. Da 5 Bloods

9. Cherry

10. The Midnight Sky

Best Costume Design

1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

2. Mank

3. Emma

4. Ammonite

5. Mulan
   —

6. Promising Young Woman

7. The United States vs. Billie Holiday

8. The Personal History of David Copperfield

9. Birds of Prey

10. One Night in Miami

Best Film Editing

1. Nomadland

2. The Trial of the Chicago 7

3. Mank

4. Minari

5. Judas and the Black Messiah
   —

6. Promising Young Woman

7. Sound of Metal

8. The Father

9. Tenet

10. News of the World

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

2. Mank

3. Hillbilly Elegy

4. Birds of Prey

5. Emma
   —

6. Pinocchio

7. One Night in Miami

8. The Little Things

9. The Glorias

10. Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey

Best Original Score

1. Soul

2. Mank

3. News of the World

4. Minari

5. The Midnight Sky
   —

6. The Little Things

7. Promising Young Woman

8. The Trial of the Chicago 7

9. Tenet

10. The Life Ahead

Best Original Song

1. “Speak Now,” One Night in Miami

2. “Io Si (Seen),” The Life Ahead

3. “Hear My Voice,” The Trial of the Chicago 7

4. “Fight for You,” Judas and the Black Messiah

5. “Turntables,” All In: The Fight for Democracy
   —

6. “Rain Song,” Minari

7. “Wuhan Flu,” Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

8. “Make It Work,” Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey

9. “Loyal Brave True,” Mulan

10. “Husavik,” Eurovision Song Contest

Best Production Design

1. Mank

2. The Father

3. News of the World

4. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

5. Emma
   —

6. Tenet

7. Mulan

8. Birds of Prey

9. The Personal History of David Copperfield

10. The Midnight Sky

Best Sound

1. Sound of Metal

2. Soul

3. Mank

4. News of the World

5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
   —

6. Greyhound

7. Tenet

8. Nomadland

9. The Trial of the Chicago 7

10. The Midnight Sky

Best Visual Effects

1. Tenet

2. The Midnight Sky

3. Welcome to Chechnya

4. The One and Only Ivan

5. Birds of Prey
   —

6. Soul

7. Mank

8. Mulan

9. Bloodshot

10. Love and Monsters