FINAL 2020 Oscar Winner Predictions

Welp, here we go. It’s at last time to get off this dizzying, seemingly never-ending roller coaster ride of an awards season.

In spite of the pandemic, which pushed a plethora of contenders out of this year’s Oscar race and off to the next cycle, I’d say we ended up with a pretty robust set of nominees - and, fingers crossed in the end, winners. In addition to prime quality, this season has also proven exciting and unpredictable right up to the 11-’o-clock hour in several major categories, including a Best Actress showdown that’s all but impossible to project with confidence and will go down as an all-timer in competitiveness.

No need for an excessive intro - let’s just dive right into these lineups, an array of easy calls and flabbergasting head-scratchers…

Best Picture

1. Nomadland

2. Minari

3. The Trial of the Chicago 7

4. Promising Young Woman

5. Mank

6. Judas and the Black Messiah

7. The Father

8. Sound of Metal

If anything could have posed a legitimate threat to the Nomadland sweep, I suspect it would’ve been a Minari victory in SAG Ensemble. Instead, they went with The Trial of the Chicago 7, which lacks a Best Director nomination and is a film from Aaron Sorkin whose films, for whatever reason, tend to fall short with AMPAS. Promising Young Woman may win Best Actress and Best Original Screenplay, a plenty healthy combo, but I fear it may rank low, perhaps even last, on a fair chunk of ballots. In the end, this does look to be Nomadland’s to lose, though it’s not quite the slam dunk that is…

Best Director

1. Chloe Zhao, Nomadland

2. Lee Isaac Chung, Minari

3. David Fincher, Mank

4. Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman

5. Thomas Vinterberg, Another Round

Signed, sealed, delivered - and deservedly so.

Best Actress

1. Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday

2. Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman

3. Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

4. Frances McDormand, Nomadland

5. Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman

Uh…not Kirby? Though anyone who claims confidence in forecasting this race has lost their damn mind. That said, here’s how I break it down. Yes, she triumphed at BAFTA, which gives her a clear edge over Kirby, but the urgency to award McDormand a third Oscar this soon - even if her film is prevailing in Best Picture - doesn’t really seem to be there. And she would’ve surely fallen short to Mulligan at BAFTA had they not done the blue ribbon panel thing. Davis won SAG, which is significant, but she’s also only lost there for an individual prize on one occasion, for Doubt. She truly is the Queen of the SAG Awards. But I just can’t predict her and her leading man to win without Ma Rainey in the Best Picture race - never has a film won these two prizes without the top nomination. If Davis were Oscar-less, this might be a different conversation. Ultimately, even with SAG and BAFTA going to other contenders, my gut says it’ll be Golden Globe winner Day or Critics Choice winner Mulligan taking home the Oscar. Day’s turn - a flashy, tour de force portrayal of a real-life entertainer - recalls recent Best Actress winners like Renee Zellweger and Marion Cotillard. But she’s also the lone nomination for a film that otherwise scored a mixed critical reception. Unlike Day, Mulligan’s film has other recognition - and in major categories to boot. But the momentum she should’ve scored from a BAFTA win was never able to come to fruition. Who knows what’ll happen - no matter who triumphs, it’ll feel like something of a surprise. But Day’s performance sure does check off a lot of the boxes that generally amount to an Oscar win.

Best Actor

1. Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

2. Anthony Hopkins, The Father

3. Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal

4. Steven Yeun, Minari

5. Gary Oldman, Mank

Hopkins has a smidge of late momentum with a BAFTA win and folks finally getting around to The Father via VOD. Boseman, however, remains the commanding favorite, even with Ma Rainey missing atop the ballot.

Best Supporting Actress

1. Youn Yuh-jung, Minari

2. Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy

3. Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

4. Amanda Seyfried, Mank

5. Olivia Colman, The Father

With both SAG and BAFTA victories, Youn has more than just a touch of 11-’o-clock-hour momentum - she’s all but leaving her competition in the dust. Some AMPAS members may be inclined to help Close avoid tying Peter O’Toole’s 0-for-8 record as biggest Oscar loser among actors but she’s hardly supporting that cause by once again chatting up a Sunset Boulevard film. The boost Bakalova scored from the Critics Choice win seems to have largely dissipated and though Seyfried is actually running a terrific campaign, Mank feels DOA. ‘Tis a shame Colman hasn’t won anything for her devastating turn.

Best Supporting Actor

1. Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah

2. Paul Raci, Sound of Metal

3. Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7

4. Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami

5. Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah

The biggest acting shoo-in of the night - and no, Kaluuya won’t split votes with Stanfield.

Best Original Screenplay

1. Promising Young Woman

2. Minari

3. The Trial of the Chicago 7

4. Judas and the Black Messiah

5. Sound of Metal

If I’m Team Nomadland, I’m nervous if Minari or The Trial of the Chicago 7 picks this up, which is within the realm of possibility and could be indicative of a potential Best Picture upset. Alas, I still feel reasonably confident it’ll be Critics Choice/WGA/BAFTA winner Emerald Fennell, especially since, as already stated, AMPAS is not head over heels for Sorkin.

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. The Father

2. Nomadland

3. Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

4. One Night in Miami

5. The White Tiger

This feels like a legit coin flip between BAFTA winner The Father and Critics Choice winner Nomadland, with Borat perhaps a bit of a dark horse, less because of its WGA victory (The Father and Nomadland were ineligible) but more as a means of honoring Cohen’s robust year. Remarkable how sharply One Night in Miami faded over the course of the season - and even more perplexing that Ma Rainey missed the cut here.

Best Animated Feature

1. Soul

2. Wolfwalkers

3. Over the Moon

4. Onward

5. A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon

Much as I hesitate to use the l-word…lock.

Best Documentary Feature

1. My Octopus Teacher

2. Time

3. Collective

4. The Mole Agent

5. Crip Camp

While none of these can altogether be counted out, My Octopus Teacher, with PGA and BAFTA wins, is in the driver’s seat.

Best International Feature

1. Another Round (Denmark)

2. Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia and Herzegovina)

3. Collective (Romania)

4. The Man Who Sold His Skin (Tunisia)

5. Better Days (Hong Kong)

With a Best Director bid to boot, Another Round should cruise to a comfortable victory. Poor Collective.

As for the following trio of categories, I can’t say I have ample commentary to share for each - other than to say, I have viewed the 15 nominees and will try to forecast based on what I suspect most floats AMPAS’ boat…

Best Animated Short Film

1. If Anything Happens I Love You

2. Opera

3. Burrow

4. Genius Loci

5. Yes-People

Best Documentary Short Subject

1. A Love Song for Latasha

2. A Concerto Is Not a Conversation

3. Colette

4. Hunger Ward

5. Do Not Split

Best Live Action Short Film

1. The Letter Room

2. Two Distant Strangers

3. The Present

4. Feeling Through

5. White Eye

Best Cinematography

1. Nomadland

2. Mank

3. The Trial of the Chicago 7

4. Judas and the Black Messiah

5. News of the World

Yes, Mank triumphed with ASC but, barring a substantially weaker evening than expected for Nomadland - or a curiously more lively one for the Fincher film - expect the Zhao picture to pick this up.

Best Costume Design

1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

2. Emma

3. Mank

4. Mulan

5. Pinocchio

At last, a second win for the legendary Ann Roth!

Best Film Editing

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7

2. Sound of Metal

3. Nomadland

4. The Father

5. Promising Young Woman

Here’s the most suspenseful of the technical races. Promising Young Woman, while a worthy nominee, is probably not prevailing and nor is The Father (which would be my personal pick for the win). If AMPAS falls madly in love with Nomadland, it’s plausible Zhao scores what would likely be her fourth Oscar of the night - but even I’m not convinced they’ll go that bananas for it. If Chicago 7, which did score at ACE, is going to win anywhere, it’s probably here - and the improbable, albeit not impossible combo of this and an Original Screenplay win would spook the daylights out of Nomadland in Best Picture. It’s a close call between it and Sound of Metal, which recently scored at BAFTA and earlier tied Chicago 7 at Critics Choice. I’m inclined to say Chicago 7 by a hair, keeping it from a complete shutout.

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

2. Pinocchio

3. Hillbilly Elegy

4. Mank

5. Emma

The odds remain long but if Close somehow triumphs, perhaps Hillbilly Elegy will prevail here too, much like Meryl Streep and The Iron Lady back in the day. And if members go for the most makeup, Pinocchio might just pull this off. In the end, however, this remains Ma Rainey’s to lose.

Best Original Score

1. Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross and Jon Batiste, Soul

2. Emile Mosseri, Minari

3. Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, Mank

4. James Newton Howard, News of the World

5. Terence Blanchard, Da 5 Bloods

Don’t expect any Reznor-Ross vote-splitting here - it’ll be an easy, breezy win for Soul.

Best Original Song

1. “Io si (Seen),” The Life Ahead

2. “Speak Now,” One Night in Miami

3. “Husavik,” Eurovision Song Contest

4. “Fight for You,” Judas and the Black Messiah

5. “Hear My Voice,” The Trial of the Chicago 7

Could it be? Could this at last be the year 11-time Oscar loser Diane Warren, composer of “Io si (Seen),” emerges triumphant? It just might. She picked up the Golden Globe and, while the HFPA and AMPAS don’t always line up in this category (they’ve matched six times over the past 10 years), it was a notable win that gave Warren’s campaign the oomph it needed to remain formidable. “Speak Now” looked like a slam dunk early on but One Night in Miami has overall seen its awards season relevancy dwindle. Its tune did triumph at Critics Choice but that membership also embraced the film more than AMPAS has. That isn’t to say “Speak Now” is down and out - if anything, this race strikes me as a legit coin flip - but the stars have aligned in a way that has rarely, if ever happened for Warren. If there’s a spoiler, it might just be the crowd-pleasing “Husavik,” that rare Best Original Song contender that isn’t simply played over the end credits.

Best Production Design

1. Mank

2. The Father

3. Tenet

4. News of the World

5. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Mank’s momentum vanished many moons ago but what could possibly top it here to result in an 0-for-10 shutout? The design on The Father is brilliant and nuanced but, in the end, odds are AMPAS eats up the Old Hollywood vibes and throws Mank a bone.

Best Sound

1. Sound of Metal

2. Soul

3. Mank

4. News of the World

5. Greyhound

Had Soul somehow made the Best Picture cut, I might consider it for an upset here. Alas, this should be a reasonably easy one for Sound of Metal.

Best Visual Effects

1. Tenet

2. The Midnight Sky

3. Mulan

4. Love and Monsters

5. The One and Only Ivan

Reception for Tenet, critically and commercially, was lukewarm and Warner Bros. has barely campaigned for it but what’s the alternative?