2016 SAG Awards predictions

On the heels of Oscar nominations morning - and with about a month to go before that grand ceremony - here's my final hunch on how this weekend's SAG Awards will go down...

Best Ensemble

1. Hidden Figures
2. Moonlight
3. Manchester by the Sea
4. Fences
5. Captain Fantastic

Nuts as this may sound, I suspect Hidden Figures will pull the upset here, over Moonlight, which appears to be something of a soft front-runner here. Hidden Figures peaked at just the right time in SAG voting, having already amassed nearly $100 million at the box office; is packed with actors who have worked alongside countless other SAG members; and, of course, mustered that all-important Best Picture Oscar nom. Moonlight could still totally win this, though - the Globe win was important in sustaining some momentum for the film, and there's something so special about the casting of both Chiron and Kevin. Not to be entirely counted out is Manchester by the Sea, though it seems buzz on that one is generally, sadly waning a bit. The other two I don't see as having a prayer, even though I have both Davis and this guy emerging triumphant here...

Best Lead Actor

1. Denzel Washington, Fences
2. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
3. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
4. Ryan Gosling, La La Land
5. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge

Yup, I'm going the extra distance in awards commentary craziness here. First off, I think Mortensen, Gosling and Garfield can all rather easily be counted out here, even with Mortensen's cast having scored that jaw-dropping Ensemble nod. The way I see it, if enough voters realize Washington has yet to triumph at SAG, he should win, as something of a career nod. Moreover, though, I get the sense critics (and the HFPA) might be much more keen on Affleck than his acting peers. Perhaps it's Brie Larson's wary response to his Globe victory putting me in this mindset but I suspect he may be weaker than some are thinking among the acting branch.

Best Lead Actress

1. Emma Stone, La La Land
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie
3. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
4. Amy Adams, Arrival
5. Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train

Even with Stone looking more and more like an Oscar shoo-in, I wouldn't entirely discount Portman's chances here. I do see Stone as a decent front-runner at SAG, in part because she's the one way the guild can recognize La La Land, but I'm hesitant to quite yet declare Portman dead. Streep, despite that glorious Globes speech, shouldn't be a real factor here, and non-Oscar nominees Adams and Blunt surely needn't get victory speeches together.

Best Supporting Actor

1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
2. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
3. Dev Patel, Lion
4. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
5. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea

Now this is a tough one. Ali was steamrolling this awards season until Aaron Taylor-Johnson's random Globe win somewhat placed the breaks on his momentum. I still think Ali triumphs here but Bridges could follow in the footsteps of Robert Duvall, Michael Caine, Christopher Walken and Tommy Lee Jones of veteran actors who have prevailed in SAG Supporting Actor. Patel, who was nominated at SAG for Slumdog Millionaire when the Academy didn't bite, could be a factor too. Grant and Hedges, while both wonderful, are sitting this one out.

Best Supporting Actress

1. Viola Davis, Fences
2. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
3. Nicole Kidman, Lion
4. Naomie Harris, Moonlight
5. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures

Here is the biggest slam dunk of the evening. It's tough to even decide upon who will be the distant runner-up to Davis. I would think it's Williams, though it doesn't much matter - Davis shall triumph here in a cakewalk.

2016 Oscar Nominations

Congratulations to all of this year's nominees!

BEST PICTURE
Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight

BEST DIRECTOR
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight

BEST ACTOR
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences

BEST ACTRESS
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel, Lion
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Hell or High Water
La La Land
The Lobster
Manchester by the Sea
20th Century Women

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Arrival
Fences
Hidden Figures
Lion
Moonlight

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Arrival
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Silence

BEST FILM EDITING
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Moonlight

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Deepwater Horizon
Doctor Strange
The Jungle Book
Kubo and the Two Strings
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Arrival
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Hail, Caesar!
La La Land
Passengers

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Allied
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins
Jackie
La La Land

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
A Man Called Ove
Star Trek Beyond
Suicide Squad

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Jackie
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Passengers

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Audition (The Fools Who Dream),” La La Land
“Can’t Stop the Feeling,” Trolls
“City of Stars,” La La Land
“The Empty Chair,” Jim: The James Foley Story
“How Far I’ll Go,” Moana

BEST SOUND EDITING
Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Sully

BEST SOUND MIXING
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
The Red Turtle
Zootopia

BEST DOCUMENTARY
Fire at Sea
I Am Not Your Negro
Life, Animated
O.J.: Made in America
13th

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Land of Mine
A Man Called Ove
The Salesman
Tanna
Toni Erdmann

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
Extremis
4.1 Miles
Joe's Violin
Watani: My Homeland
The White Helmets

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
Ennemis Entreniers
La Femme et le TGV
Silent Nights
Sing
Timecode

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Blind Vaysha
Borrowed Time
Pear Cider and Cigarettes
Pearl
Piper

Review: "The Founder"

John Lee Hancock is not exactly among my favorite filmmakers. Sans a decent performance here and there, his The Blind Side and Saving Mr. Banks largely bored me to tears. These and other efforts struck me as heart-tugging mush, without a whole lot of style or ingenuity to speak of.

This lack of cinematic flourish, I'm happy to report, is not nearly as much on display in Hancock's latest picture, The Founder. This time around, the director is working from a fine screenplay (from The Wrestler scribe Robert Siegel) and alongside three marvelous actors, all operating at the tops of their games. It's a movie that marks a plenty respectable finish to 2016 in film.

The Founder opens in 1954 with the floundering, yet mightily determined Illinois salesman Ray Kroc (Michael Keaton) bouncing around from one drive-in restaurant to another, trying, with minimal success, to sell his latest milkshake mixers. At last, one eatery in southern California bites - a successful little hamburger joint called McDonald's. Kroc heads west and is head-over-heels for the place, established by brothers Dick (Nick Offerman) and Mac (John Carroll Lynch) McDonald. He sees their speedy method of making food as a winner, with enormous franchise potential. So, Kroc manages to get the McDonalds on board with expanding their baby but conflict between the entrepreneurs rises as McDonald's becomes a runaway hit and Kroc leaves the McDonald brothers in the dust.

All of the material here featuring the McDonald brothers packs a real punch. It's a mouth-watering delight watching the burger-making process, and there's a particularly inventive scene in which Dick and Mac, alongside their first employees, work on a tennis court to figure out the appropriate operation. There are also several moments of tremendous tension later in the picture, as the McDonalds become more and more irrelevant to the juggernaut that is Kroc's McDonald's.empire. It is a true pleasure seeing Offerman and Lynch with prime big screen roles like this, and Keaton is a blast to watch as the ruthlessly committed Kroc.

If The Founder has any real misstep, it is in the casting of top-notch actors like Laura Dern, Patrick Wilson and Linda Cardellini in thankless supporting turns that act more as window dressing than roles of real significance. That quibble aside, the film is a lot of fun, Kroc's warts and all.

B+

Review: "Split"

M. Night Shyamalan's The Sixth Sense is, for my money, one of the finest horror films of the past quarter-century, a stirring, unsettling, expertly filmed picture that deserved all of its half dozen Oscar nominations.

Ever since that 1999 release, unfortunately, it's been downhill for this supposed master of the supernatural. Unbreakable and Signs were watchable, albeit a remarkable step down from his breakthrough film, while subsequent releases just got worse and worse until Shyamalan entirely skid off the road into Razzie Award territory.

Shyamalan's latest effort is, I'm pleased to report, not an unqualified disaster, even if it never comes remotely close to reaching the heights of The Sixth Sense.

Split opens with Kevin (James McAvoy) abducting three teenage girls from a parking lot. They awaken in a windowless room and are quickly introduced to, among others, the likes of "Hedwig," "Patricia" and "Dennis" - that is, a few of Kevin's 23 alternate personalities. There are attempts to escape or trick Kevin but ultimately, only loner Casey (Anya Taylor-Joy) proves smart and resourceful enough to be a real match to their captor. When Kevin isn't tormenting his prey, he's visiting with his psychiatrist (Betty Buckley), who has come to know Kevin's many personalities all too well.

The opening half or so of Split is reasonably entertaining, if never, ever actually scary. It plays almost like a cross between 10 Cloverfield Lane and Raising Cain, though it's rarely as compelling as either of those two pictures. The opening credits are truly fantastic and Hitchcockian. The thing is, a little of Kevin/Hedwig/Dennis/etc. goes a long way and, by the one-hour mark, I was plenty ready to bid him farewell. And, as is all too often the case with the director's pictures, Split really takes a nosedive toward its end.

McAvoy's scenery-chewing performance, while amusing, is no Joanne Woodward in The Three Faces of Eve. More satisfying are the badass Taylor-Joy, who was also terrific in last year's The Witch, and Buckley, the legendary, Tony-winning star of the stage, in a rare big screen appearance, with a juicy supporting role.

Split isn't without its pleasures but still, wait 'til it's on HBO.

C+

FINAL 2016 Oscar Nomination Predictions!

This is it, folks - my final Oscar nomination predictions! Since my last commentary in December, a ton has gone down in the awards season - Golden Globes were handed out, as were BAFTA nods and nominations from the Directors, Writers and Producers Guilds of America. Next week, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will (at last!) offer its two cents on the best of cinema in 2016 and, not long after that, BAFTA and the guilds will be announcing their winners. As a reminder, this year's Oscar ceremony falls on February 26.

So, that being said, here are my final predictions. In parentheses you will see how many slots a contender has moved up or down since my December rankings. In some cases, I have eliminated a film or performer entirely.

Enjoy and, as always, feel free to comment with your own thoughts as well!

(PS: As I did last year, I will again be hosting an Oscar winners prediction contest, with a Fandango gift card as grand prize. Keep an eye out for more details on that, after the nominations are announced.)

Best Picture

1. La La Land (-)
2. Moonlight (-)
3. Manchester by the Sea (-)
4. Lion (-)
5. Hidden Figures (+2)
6. Arrival (-1)
7. Fences (-1)
8. Hacksaw Ridge (+1)
9. Hell or High Water (+1)
   ---
10. Nocturnal Animals (+3)
11. Silence (-3)
12. Deadpool (NEW)
13. Loving (-2)
14. Jackie (-2)
15. Sully (-1)

DROPPED
Florence Foster Jenkins (-1)

Best Director

1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (-)
2. Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (-)
3. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (-)
4. Denis Villanueve, Arrival (+1)
5. Garth Davis, Lion (+2)
   ---
6. Martin Scorsese, Silence (-2)
7. Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge (-1)
8. David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water (-)
9. Pablo Larrain, Jackie (-)
10. Clint Eastwood, Sully (-)

Best Lead Actor

1. Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (-)
2. Denzel Washington, Fences (-)
3. Ryan Gosling, La La Land (-)
4. Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic (-)
5. Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge (-)
   ---
6. Jake Gyllenhaal, Nocturnal Animals (NEW)
7. Ryan Reynolds, Deadpool (+1)
8. Joel Edgerton, Loving (-2)
9. Colin Farrell, The Lobster (-2)
10. Tom Hanks, Sully (-1)

DROPPED
Michael Keaton, The Founder (-1)

Best Lead Actress

1. Emma Stone, La La Land (+1)
2. Natalie Portman, Jackie (-1)
3. Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins (-)
4. Amy Adams, Arrival (+1)
5. Isabelle Huppert, Elle (-1)
   ---
6. Emily Blunt, The Girl on the Train (+3)
7. Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (-1)
8. Taraji P. Henson, Hidden Figures (NEW)
9. Ruth Negga, Loving (-2)
10. Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane (-)

DROPPED
Hailee Steinfeld, The Edge of Seventeen (-3)

Best Supporting Actor

1. Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (-)
2. Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water (-)
3. Dev Patel, Lion (-)
4. Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (+2)
5. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Nocturnal Animals (+4)
   ---
6. Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea (-1)
7. Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals (-2)
8. Kevin Costner, Hidden Figures (NEW)
9. Issey Ogata, Silence (-2)
10. Ben Foster, Hell or High Water (-2)

DROPPED
Simon Helberg, Florence Foster Jenkins (-1)

Best Supporting Actress

1. Viola Davis, Fences (-)
2. Naomie Harris, Moonlight (-)
3. Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea (-)
4. Nicole Kidman, Lion (-)
5. Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures (-)
   ---
6. Janelle Monae, Hidden Figures (+1)
7. Lily Gladstone, Certain Women (-1)
8. Greta Gerwig, 20th Century Women (+1)
9. Hayley Squires, I, Daniel Blake (NEW)
10. Laura Linney, Nocturnal Animals (NEW)

DROPPED
Molly Shannon, Other People (-3)
Felicity Jones, A Monster Calls (-1)

Best Original Screenplay

1. Damien Chazelle, La La Land (+1)
2. Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (-1)
3. Taylor Sheridan, Hell or High Water (-)
4. Matt Ross, Captain Fantastic (-)
5. Noah Oppenheim, Jackie (-)
   ---
6. Nicholas Martin, Florence Foster Jenkins (-)
7. Efthimis Filippou and Yorgos Lanthimos, The Lobster (-)
8. Jared Bush, Byron Howard, Phil Johnston, Jennifer Lee, Rich Moore, Jim Reardon and Josie Trinidad, Zootopia (+1)
9. Paul Laverty, I, Daniel Blake (NEW)
10. Maren Ade, Toni Erdmann (NEW)

DROPPED
Mike Mills, 20th Century Women (-3)
Peter Berg, Matt Cook and Joshua Zetumer, Patriots Day (-1)

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Barry Jenkins and Tarell McCraney, Moonlight (-)
2. Luke Davies, Lion (+1)
3. Eric Heisserer, Arrival (+3)
4. August Wilson, Fences (-2)
5. Allison Schroeder and Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures (+2)
   ---
6. Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals (+2)
7. Jeff Nichols, Loving (-3)
8. Andrew Knight and Robert Schenkkan, Hacksaw Ridge (+2)
9. Jay Cocks, Silence (-4)
10. David Birke, Elle (NEW)

DROPPED
Todd Komarnicki, Sully (-2)

Best Animated Feature

1. Zootopia (-)
2. Moana (-)
3. Kubo and the Two Strings (+3)
4. Miss Hokusai (+4)
5. The Red Turtle (-1)
   ---
6. Sing (-3)
7. Finding Dory (-2)
8. The Little Prince (NEW)
9. April and the Extraordinary World (-2)
10. My Life as a Zucchini (NEW)

Best Cinematography

1. Linus Sandgren, La La Land (-)
2. James Laxton, Moonlight (-)
3. Bradford Young, Arrival (-)
4. Bill Pope, The Jungle Book (+3)
5. Seamus McGarvey, Nocturnal Animals (+1)
   ---
6. Rodrigo Prieto, Silence (-3)
7. Greig Fraser, Lion (+1)
8. Giles Nuttgens, Hell or High Water (+1)
9. Stephanie Fontaine, Jackie (-4)
10. Greig Fraser, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (NEW)

DROPPED
Robert Richardson, Live by Night (-1)

Best Costume Design

1. Mary Zophres, La La Land (-)
2. Madeline Fontaine, Jackie (-)
3. Consolata Boyle, Florence Foster Jenkins (-)
4. Marion Boyce and Margot Wilson, The Dressmaker (NEW)
5. Colleen Atwood, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (-1)
   ---
6. Renee Ehrlich Kalfus, Hidden Figures (+2)
7. Dante Ferretti, Silence (-2)
8. Seong-hie Ryu, The Handmaiden (-1)
9. Lizzy Gardiner, Hacksaw Ridge (-)
10. Mary Zophres, Hail, Caesar! (NEW)

DROPPED
Eimer Ni Mhaoldomhnaigh, Love & Friendship (-5)
Sharen Davis, Fences (-2)

Best Film Editing

1. Tom Cross, La La Land (-)
2. Joi McMillon and Nat Sanders, Moonlight (-)
3. Jennifer Lame, Manchester by the Sea (-)
4. John Gilbert, Hacksaw Ridge (+6)
5. Alexandre de Francheschi, Lion (-)
   ---
6. Joe Walker, Arrival (-)
7. Thelma Schoonmaker, Silence (-3)
8. Joan Sobel, Nocturnal Animals (-)
9. Jake Roberts, Hell or High Water (NEW)
10. Sebastián Sepúlveda, Jackie (-3)

DROPPED
Blu Murray, Sully (-2)

Best Production Design

1. David Wasco, La La Land (-)
2. Barry Robison, Hacksaw Ridge (+5)
3. Christopher Glass, The Jungle Book (+2)
4. Jean Rabasse, Jackie (-1)
5. Patrice Vermette, Arrival (+5)
   ---
6. Dante Ferretti, Silence (-4)
7. Stuart Craig, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (-3)
8. Alan MacDonald, Florence Foster Jenkins (-2)
9. Doug Chiang and Neil Lamont, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (NEW)
10. Jeremy Woolsey, Hidden Figures (NEW)

DROPPED
Anna Rackard, Love & Friendship (-3)
Jess Gonchor, Live by Night (-2)

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

1. Florence Foster Jenkins (-)
2. Deadpool (NEW)
3. A Man Called Ove (NEW)
   ---
4. Star Trek: Beyond (NEW)
5. Hail, Caesar! (-1)
6. Suicide Squad (+3)
7. The Dressmaker (NEW)

DROPPED
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (-10)
Jackie (-8)
Hacksaw Ridge (-6)
Nocturnal Animals (-5)
Silence (-4)
Love & Friendship (-3)
La La Land (-1)

Best Original Score

1. Justin Hurwitz, La La Land (-)
2. Dustin O’Halloran and Hauschka, Lion (-)
3. Alexandre Desplat, Florence Foster Jenkins (+1)
4. John Williams, The BFG (+1)
5. Hans Zimmer, Pharrell Williams and Benjamin Wallfisch, Hidden Figures (NEW)
   ---
6. Mica Levi, Jackie (-3)
7. Nicholas Britell, Moonlight (+1)
8. Abel Korzeniowski, Nocturnal Animals (-1)
9. Michael Giacchino, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (-3)
10. Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, Patriots Day (-)

DROPPED
Mark Mancina, Moana (-2)

Best Original Song

1. "City of Stars," La La Land (-)
2. "Audition (The Fools Who Dream)," La La Land (+1)
3. "How Far I'll Go," Moana (-1)
4. "I See Victory," Hidden Figures (+1)
5. "We Know the Way," Moana (-1)
   ---
6. "A Letter to the Free," 13th (+2)
7. "Can't Stop the Feeling," Trolls (-)
8. "Drive It Like You Stole It," Sing Street (-2)
9. "Faith," Sing (-)
10. "The Rules Don't Apply," Rules Don't Apply (-)

Best Sound Editing

1. La La Land (-)
2. Arrival (-)
3. Hacksaw Ridge (-)
4. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (-)
5. Deepwater Horizon (+2)
   ---
6. Captain America: Civil War (+2)
7. The Jungle Book (NEW)
8. Patriots Day (-2)
9. Sully (-4)
10. Deadpool (NEW)

DROPPED
Silence (-3)
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (-1)

Best Sound Mixing

1. La La Land (-)
2. Arrival (-)
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (-)
4. Hacksaw Ridge (+1)
5. The Jungle Book (NEW)
   ---
6. Zootopia (-)
7. Captain America: Civil War (+2)
8. Deepwater Horizon (NEW)
9. Hell or High Water (NEW)
10. Sully (-6)

DROPPED
Moana (-4)
Silence (-3)
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (-1)

Best Visual Effects

1. Arrival (-)
2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (-)
3. The Jungle Book (+1)
4. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (-1)
5. Captain America: Civil War (-)
   ---
6. Deepwater Horizon (+4)
7. Kubo and the Two Strings (NEW)
8. Doctor Strange (-)
9. Passengers (-4)
10. The BFG (NEW)

DROPPED
Sully (-5)
Deadpool (-4)

Best Documentary Feature

1. 13th (-)
2. I Am Not Your Negro (+2)
3. Gleason (-1)
4. The Eagle Huntress (-1)
5. Fire at Sea (-)
   ---
6. O.J.: Made in America (+3)
7. Cameraperson (+1)
8. Zero Days (+2)
9. The Ivory Game (-3)
10. Life, Animated (-3)

Best Foreign Language Film

1. Toni Erdmann (Germany) (-)
2. The Salesman (Iran) (-)
3. My Life as a Zucchini (Switzerland) (+3)
4. Land of Mine (Denmark) (-1)
5. A Man Called Ove (Sweden) (-)
   ---
6. The King's Choice (Norway) (-2)
7. Tanna (Australia) (+1)
8. It's Only the End of the World (Canada) (-1)
9. Paradise (Russia) (-)