2024 SAG Awards Winner Predictions

Best Motion Picture Ensemble

1. Anora

2. Conclave

3. Wicked

4. A Complete Unknown

5. Emilia Pérez

Under different circumstances, Emilia Pérez could have proven a legit contender for the win here. Alas, that is no longer the case, even with Zoe Saldaña remaining a commanding favorite in her category.

Unlike Emilia Pérez, A Complete Unknown cannot be counted out. It does, after all, have three individual acting bids and has proven a critical and commercial hit - but this rings to me as more of a barn burner among the other trio of contenders.

Conclave has scored no shortage of Ensemble prizes this awards season, including from Critics’ Choice and National Board of Review. It was a little surprising to see Isabella Rossellini, a veteran who has worked with countless actors, miss in SAG Supporting Actress when she’s surfaced just about everywhere else. Could that be indicative of slightly soft support for the film? Maybe - or, more likely, maybe not, given SAG’s odd alphabetical bias, where an overwhelming majority (17 out of 20) of the acting nominees came from A-M on the ballot.

It was even more surprising to see Jonathan Bailey make the Supporting Actor cut here. Could this mean SAG voters are particularly head over heels for Wicked - or did Bailey simply benefit from being listed high on the ballot? Either way, as one of the year’s most resounding smashes, Wicked could take this.

Alas, the momentum is unquestionably with Anora, which scored Best Picture at Critics’ Choice and, more importantly, honors at PGA and DGA. For now, I remain unconvinced the film is a shoo-in for the Best Picture Oscar - but that may change if it prevails here. Frankly, I can fathom each of Anora, Conclave and Wicked winning about 30 percent of the vote here. It’s an all but impossible race to forecast with confidence. But one thing that is certain - the buzz around Anora, which may have slightly stalled after the Golden Globes, is accelerating at a far faster pace than the momentum for its competitors.

Best Female Actor in a Leading Role

1. Demi Moore, The Substance

2. Mikey Madison, Anora

3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked

4. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl

5. Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez

SAG has a history of honoring beloved veteran actresses in this category, regardless of whether they go on to take the Oscar (e.g. Viola Davis, Glenn Close, Meryl Streep for Doubt and Julie Christie). Accordingly, Moore, who has been in the business for the past four decades, should be in good shape. That said, she marks the lone nomination for her film here, Anora is soaring and Madison just prevailed at BAFTA. Is the buzz robust enough for Madison to score the upset? Color me skeptical with this particular body but it’s hardly impossible.

Best Male Actor in a Leading Role

1. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown

2. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist

3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave

4. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing

5. Daniel Craig, Queer

Of the two Lead showdowns at SAG, this actually strikes me as the more suspenseful. There is a very real possibility Chalamet edges out Brody here, even if the latter remains favored at the Oscars. A Complete Unknown ran the table with nominations here, scoring four in total. Compare that to The Brutalist, which not only missed in Ensemble but Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress too. Of the 30 turns that have triumphed in this category, only five marked the lone nomination from their film (in Lead Actress, that number is double - 10). Perhaps the alphabet issue did Felicity Jones and Guy Pearce in and SAG affection for The Brutalist isn’t actually lackluster. Regardless, the love for A Complete Unknown is undeniable here and I’m going with Chalamet as the evening’s big (only?) surprise.

Best Female Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez

2. Ariana Grande, Wicked

3. Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown

4. Jamie Lee Curtis, The Last Showgirl

5. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson

I’d figured if Rossellini was to score a trophy somewhere, it may have been here. Alas, no. Saldaña has clearly escaped the Emilia Pérez downfall reasonably unscathed. In fact, many may feel sympathy for her having to deal with the shitshow surrounding her film. She remains an overwhelming favorite, in part because an alternative to her isn’t clear.

Best Male Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

2. Yura Borisov, Anora

3. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown

4. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice

5. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked

The steamroll shall continue.

Best Motion Picture Stunt Ensemble

1. Wicked

2. Deadpool & Wolverine

3. The Fall Guy

4. Dune: Part Two

5. Gladiator II

This category could prove a nice way to honor Wicked when it’s not clearly favored on any of its other SAG bids. That said, it’s a race just as tough to forecast as the top prize. Anything could prevail, though the affection for Gladiator II has been fairly lackluster all awards season, plus the first Dune didn’t win this category - so I’m not inclined to predict either of them. The Fall Guy is about a stuntman and, accordingly, jam-packed with stunts. In theory, it should be a formidable contender but its commercial reception was so lukewarm that I hesitate to think it’ll prevail.

In the end, I’m seesawing between the other two, which just so happen to be two of the year’s biggest hits. Of the 17 films that have triumphed here, five have been comic book adaptations - with four consecutive wins coming from 2017 to 2020. Since then, Black Widow, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 have fallen short. Deadpool & Wolverine was more of a box office phenomenon than all of those contenders, so perhaps it’ll resonate more with voters - but I’m ultimately going with Wicked, which I have a tough time fathoming going home completely empty-handed.

#ForYourConsiderationFriday - The Collection!

Hey there, fellow Oscar fans!

For those of you who follow me on Twitter, you may have noticed that, each Friday, I do a little hashtag called #ForYourConsiderationFriday, highlighting a past Oscar FYC ad. More often than not, it’s a vintage oldie, pulled from a past Hollywood Reporter or Variety, though I will, now and then, post a more recent ad if it piques my interest (hello, Best Supporting Actress hopeful Betty White in The Proposal).

Initially, I was merely doing this during the Oscar season itself. Eventually, I decided to make this a weekly thing - and will continue to do so moving forward.

This page will fulfill something I’ve been meaning to do for a while now - get these ads onto the blog, compiled into one place and categorized. I’ll keep this organized across nine fields - Best Picture/’All Categories’ (since countless films run one-pagers covering everything), Best Director, Best Actress, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Best Screenplay, Best Score/Song and the rest of the craft categories.

I’ll be including all of the FYC ads I’ve posted to Twitter (a total of 319 thus far) and will upload each Friday’s new one as I go along. The goal, of course, is to ultimately amass the motherlode of Oscar FYC ads, which sounds like the most prolonged of processes at one post/week but hey, that’s 52 ads/year = 520 ads/decade. Not bad! ;)

2024 Oscar Nomination Predictions

From most to least likely to score a nomination:

Best Picture

1. Emilia Pérez

2. The Brutalist

3. Conclave

4. A Complete Unknown

5. Wicked

6. Anora

7. Dune: Part Two

8. A Real Pain

9. Sing Sing

10. The Substance
    —

11. September 5

12. I’m Still Here

13. Nickel Boys

14. All We Imagine as Light

15. Challengers

I’m feeling reasonably confident about the top eight here. Sing Sing’s constant underperformance this awards season continued with a PGA snub but I still slightly prefer its odds over The Substance, a film that’s had a far more robust precursors run than expected, yet still needs to contend with the notorious AMPAS aversion to horror. In a lineup of 10, however, I think The Substance can land a slot, especially with the likes of All We Imagine as Light and Nickel Boys not the most formidable of forces. At this point, if there’s a dark horse, it’s probably September 5, which has gone nowhere commercially but does have the PGA nom, suggesting at least some industry support.

Best Director

1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist

2. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez

3. Edward Berger, Conclave

4. Sean Baker, Anora

5. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown
   —

6. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light

7. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance

8. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two

9. Mike Leigh, Hard Truths

10. John M. Chu, Wicked

There is where I start to differ with other Oscar prognosticators in terms of The Substance strength. It’s my favorite film of the year and I sure hope Fargeat scores multiple nominations, including one here. But A Complete Unknown’s awards season buzz seemingly only strengthened during the AMPAS voting period, including a surprise DGA nom for Mangold (who has yet to surface as a nominee in this category). Perhaps, hopefully, my nervousness is misguided and Fargeat will, as most expect, make the cut. Or, if it’s not Fargeat, it’s an exciting curveball like Kapadia or Leigh. Alas, my gut says A Complete Unknown may be in for an overperformance.

Best Actress

1. Demi Moore, The Substance

2. Mikey Madison, Anora

3. Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez

4. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked

5. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here
   —

6. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths

7. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl

8. Angelina Jolie, Maria

9. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl

10. Kate Winslet, Lee

I know, I know - the Golden Globes have zero crossover with AMPAS in terms of voters. Statistically, however, only two winners of the Drama Actress Golden Globe have not scored Oscar nominations. One was Revolutionary Road’s Kate Winslet, who instead earned a nomination for The Reader that year. The other was Madame Sousatzka’s Shirley MacLaine, who was part of a three-way tie at the 1988 Globes, with two of her co-winners ultimately making the Oscar cut. That’s it. So, despite incredibly formidable bids by Jean-Baptiste and Anderson especially, I can’t fathom Torres missing, especially with Sony Pictures Classics running a gangbusters campaign for her. Maybe it’s even Erivo who drops in the event someone else makes it?

Best Actor

1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist

2. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown

3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave

4. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing

5. Daniel Craig, Queer
   —

6. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man

7. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice

8. Hugh Grant, Heretic

9. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain

10. Glen Powell, Hit Man

That SAG nom was critical for Craig. Yes, he oddly missed BAFTA but that was an ideal scenario for Stan, who made their longlist for The Apprentice but not A Different Man, ensuring there was no threat of canceling himself out. There is no longlist here, so voters will need to make up their minds over which Stan turn to embrace - and I’m hardly convinced there is a consensus.

Best Supporting Actress

1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez

2. Ariana Grande, Wicked

3. Jamie Lee Curtis, The Last Showgirl

4. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave

5. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
   —

6. Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown

7. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez

8. Margaret Qualley, The Substance

9. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson

10. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys

The rise of Curtis this season has been remarkable, albeit not entirely surprising, given how much she’s adored by her peers. It’ll just be wild when, as is likely the case, she scores a nom while Anderson, who is truly extraordinary in their picture, misses the cut. Despite the crowded nature of this category (Joan Chen, Carol Kane and Natasha Lyonne, among others, were incredible too), I feel oddly confident about this being our quintet. Perhaps A Complete Unknown overperforms even more than I suspect and Barbaro (or even Elle Fanning) makes it but it’ll be surprising if Rossellini and Jones are no-shows. Again, skeptical Qualley makes it, though she wholeheartedly deserves a nom.

Best Supporting Actor

1. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

2. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown

3. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist

4. Yura Borisov, Anora

5. Stanley Tucci, Conclave
   —

6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice

7. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing

8. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II

9. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked

10. Adam Pearson, A Different Man

Could be completely off here but I’ve had a sense all season, regardless of his precursors performance, that Tucci emerges on Oscar noms morning. Strong has surfaced at all of the major precursors and it’s a far showier turn than Tucci’s, so I don’t predict his snub with great confidence. Maclin is right up there too and Washington can’t be counted out - you can safely, at least, ignore his BAFTA snub, since they’ve always inexplicably disliked him.

Best Original Screenplay

1. Sean Baker, Anora

2. Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold, The Brutalist

3. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain

4. Mike Leigh, Hard Truths

5. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance
   —

6. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light

7. Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum and Alex David, September 5

8. Justin Kuritzkes, Challengers

9. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig

10. Azazel Jacobs, His Three Daughters

Leigh isn’t being overwhelmingly predicted but he’s a fairly reliable presence in this category, having scored noms on five occasions. I’d be surprised if he doesn’t show up here, regardless of whether Jean-Baptiste is a Best Actress nominee. I do have Fargeat making the cut in this one, albeit narrowly over Kapadia and the September 5 team. If either of those films has the momentum to earn a Best Picture nomination, there’s a high chance they surface here too.

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Peter Straughan, Conclave

2. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez

3. Jay Cocks and James Mangold, A Complete Unknown

4. Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin and John “Divine G” Whitfield, Sing Sing

5. RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes, Nickel Boys
   —

6. Winnie Holzman and Dana Fox, Wicked

7. Murilo Hauser and Heitor Lorega, I’m Still Here

8. Denis Villeneuve and Jon Spaihts, Dune: Part Two

9. Pedro Almodóvar, The Room Next Door

10. Robert Eggers, Nosferatu

Wicked needs this nom to be a threat for the Best Picture win and I’m not quite convinced that’s going to happen, even with Nickel Boys in increasingly questionable shape for recognition. With Sony Pictures Classics working its usual magic, it may even be behind I’m Still Here.

Admittedly due to lack of time on my end, I won’t do write-ups on the rest of the categories - other than to say, anyone not predicting Diane Warren for a 16th career nomination in Best Original Song (this time for The Six Triple Eight’s “The Journey”) is in deep denial.

Best Animated Feature

1. The Wild Robot

2. Flow

3. Inside Out 2

4. Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

5. Memoir of a Snail
   —

6. Moana 2

7. Piece by Piece

8. Despicable Me 4

9. Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim

10. Chicken for Linda

Best Documentary Feature

1. No Other Land

2. Daughters

3. Dahomey

4. Will and Harper

5. Porcelain War
   —

6. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat

7. Black Box Diaries

8. Sugarcane

9. Frida

10. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin

Best International Feature

1. Emilia Pérez (France)

2. I’m Still Here (Brazil)

3. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany)

4. Vermiglio (Italy)

5. The Girl with the Needle (Denmark)
   —

6. Flow (Latvia)

7. Kneecap (Ireland)

8. From Ground Zero (Palestine)

9. How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (Thailand)

10. Armand (Norway)

Best Animated Short

1. A Bear Named Wojtek

2. A Crab in the Pool

3. Au Revoir Mon Monde

4. Wander to Wonder

5. Beautiful Men
   —

6. Yuck!

7. In the Shadow of the Cypress

8. The Wild-Tempered Clavier

9. Maybe Elephants

10. Magic Candles

Best Documentary Short

1. Once Upon a Time in Ukraine

2. Makayla’s Voice: A Letter to the World

3. I Am Ready, Warden

4. Death by Numbers

5. The Only Girl in the Orchestra
   —

6. The Quilters

7. Incident

8. Chasing Roo

9. Instruments of a Beating Heart

10. A Swim Lesson

Best Live Action Short

1. The Masterpiece

2. An Orange from Jaffa

3. Anuja

4. The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent

5. The Ice Cream Man
   —

6. I’m Not a Robot

7. Dovecoat

8. Clodagh

9. The Compatriot

10. Edge of Space

Best Cinematography

1. Lol Crawley, The Brutalist

2. Stéphane Fontaine, Conclave

3. Greig Fraser, Dune: Part Two

4. Jarin Blaschke, Nosferatu

5. Paul Guilhaume, Emilia Pérez
   —

6. Markus Förderer, September 5

7. Edward Lachman, Maria

8. Alice Brooks, Wicked

9. Jomo Fray, Nickel Boys

10. Benjamin Kracun, The Substance

Best Costume Design

1. Paul Tazewell, Wicked

2. Jacqueline West, Dune: Part Two

3. Janty Yates, Gladiator II

4. Massimo Cantini Parrini, Maria

5. Jacqueline Durran, Blitz
   —

6. Linda Muir, Nosferatu

7. Virginie Montel, Emilia Pérez

8. Colleen Atwood, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

9. Arianne Phillips, A Complete Unknown

10. Kate Forbes, The Brutalist

Best Film Editing

1. Joe Walker, Dune: Part Two

2. Juliette Welfling, Emilia Pérez

3. Myron Kerstein, Wicked

4. Dávid Jancsóm, The Brutalist

5. Nick Emerson, Conclave
   —

6. Marco Costa, Challengers

7. Hansjörg Weißbrich, September 5

8. Coralie Fargeat, Jérôme Eltabet and Valentin Feron, The Substance

9. Sean Baker, Anora

10. Andrew Buckland, A Complete Unknown

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Frances Hannon, Sarah Nuth and Laura Blount, Wicked

2. Pierre-Olivier Persin, The Substance

3. Traci Loader, Suzanne Stokes-Munton and David White, Nosferatu

4. Mike Marino, Sarah Graalman and Aaron Saucier, A Different Man

5. Christine Blundell, Lesa Warrener and Neal Scanlan, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
   —

6. Donald Mowat, Love Larson and Eva Von Bahr, Dune: Part Two

7. Julia Floch Carbonel and Simon Livet, Emilia Pérez

8. Heike Merker, Adruitha Lee, Pamela Goldammer and Arjen Tuiten, Maria

9. Michelle Côté and Colin Penman, The Apprentice

10. Cici Andersen, Erica Villanueva and Jerry Constantine, Waltzing with Brando

Best Original Score

1. Volker Bertelmann, Conclave

2. Daniel Blumberg, The Brutalist

3. Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, Challengers

4. Hans Zimmer, Blitz

5. Clément Ducol, Camille, Emilia Pérez
   —

6. Kris Bowers, The Wild Robot

7. Robin Carolan, Nosferatu

8. John Powell and Stephen Schwartz, Wicked

9. Alberto Iglesias, The Room Next Door

10. Amelia Warner, Young Woman and the Sea

Best Original Song

1. “El Mal,” Emilia Pérez

2. “The Journey,” The Six Triple Eight

3. "Mi Camino,” Emilia Pérez

4. “Kiss the Sky,” The Wild Robot

5. "Harper and Will Go West,” Will & Harper
   —

6. "Compress/Regress,” Challengers

7. “Never Too Late,” Elton John: Never Too Late

8. “Like a Bird,” Sing Sing

9. 'Piece by Piece,” Piece by Piece

10. "Tell Me It’s You,” Mufasa: The Lion King

Best Production Design

1. Nathan Crowley and Lee Sandales, Wicked

2. Zsuzsanna Sipos, Shane Vieau and Patrice Vermette, Dune: Part Two

3. Judy Becker, The Brutalist

4. Craig Lathrop, Nosferatu

5. Suzie Davies and Roberta Federico, Conclave
   —

6. Emmanuelle Duplay and Sandra Castello, Emilia Pérez

7. Arthur Max and Elli Griff, Gladiator II

8. Stanislas Reydellet and Cécilia Blom, The Substance

9. Adam Stockhausen and Anna Pinnock, Blitz

10. Tom Brown, Guy Hendrix Dyas and Sandro Piccarozzi, Maria

Best Sound

1. Gareth John, Richard King, Ron Bartlett and Doug Hemphill, Dune: Part Two

2. Nancy Nugent Title, John Marquis, Andy Nelson and Simon Hayes, Wicked

3. Cyril Holtz, Niels Barletta and Erwan Kerzanet, Emilia Pérez

4. Matthew Collinge, Danny Sheehan, Paul Massey and Stéphane Bucher, Gladiator II

5. Ted Caplan, Tod Maitland, David Giammarco, Paul Massey and Donald Sylvester, A Complete Unknown
   —

6. Craig Henighan, Ryan Cole, Lora Hirschberg, and Colin Nicolson, Deadpool & Wolverine

7. Randy Thom, Gary A. Rizzo, Leff Lefferts and Brian Chumney, The Wild Robot

8. Paul Cotterell, James Harrison and Kevin Penney, Blitz

9. Tamás Csaba, Will Files, Lee Gilmore and Mark Pearson, Alien: Romulus

10. Steve Morrow, Erik Aadahl, Ethan Van der Ryn, Jason Ruder, Tom Ozanich and Dean A. Zupancic, Joker: Folie à Deux

Best Visual Effects

1. Paul Lambert, Stephen James, Rhys Salcombe and Gerd Nefzer, Dune: Part Two

2. Pablo Helman, Jonathan Fawkner, Paul Corbould and David Shirk, Wicked

3. Mark Bakowski, Pietro Ponti, Nikki Penny and Neil Corbould, Gladiator II

4. Erik Winquist, Stephen Unterfranz, Paul Story and Rodney Burke, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

5. Swen Gillberg, Matthew Twyford, Vincent Papaix and Dominic Tuohy, Deadpool & Wolverine
   —

6. Luke Miller, David Clayton, Keith Herft and Peter Stubbs, Better Man

7. Olivier Beaulieu, Bill Georgiou, Ben Snow and Florian Witzel, Twisters

8. Audrey Ferrara and Adam Valdez, Mufasa: The Lion King

9. Eric Barba, Nelson Sepulveda-Fauser, Daniel Macarin and Shane Patrick Mahan, Alien: Romulus

10. David Simpson, J.D. Schwalm, Chris Zeh and Freddy Salazar, Civil War

2024 SAG Awards Nomination Predictions

Rankings are from most to least likely to be nominated:

Best Motion Picture Ensemble

1. Conclave

2. Wicked

3. Emilia Pérez

4. Sing Sing

5. Saturday Night
   —

6. The Brutalist

7. Anora

8. A Complete Unknown

9. Nickel Boys

10. His Three Daughters

Conclave, Emilia Pérez and Wicked ought to be safe - a snub for any of them, all undoubtedly widely seen by voters and sporting formidable casts, would be shocking. While Sing Sing’s momentum has dwindled somewhat, it’s an ensemble piece about the power of performance and should, you would think, resonate among actors. It’s that fifth slot that’s tough to project. Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown and Nickel Boys have no shortage of awards season buzz but I suspect it may be Saturday Night that makes the cut. It recalls the likes of Bobby and The Butler, pictures with sprawling ensembles that flatlined as serious Oscar contenders but nonetheless surfaced here.

Best Female Actor in a Leading Role

1. Demi Moore, The Substance

2. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked

3. Mikey Madison, Anora

4. Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez

5. Kate Winslet, Lee
   —

6. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl

7. Angelina Jolie, Maria

8. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths

9. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here

10. Amy Adams, Nightbitch

Torres may have just scored the Drama Actress Golden Globe - a huge development, considering only two recipients of that prize have not gone on to Oscar nominations (and one of them, Kate Winslet in 2008, was instead nominated and won for another film) - but she’ll nonetheless be a longshot here, given SAG’s notorious aversion to turns from foreign language films. Her mother, the legendary Fernanda Montenegro, was not a SAG nominee for Central Station in 1998, nor was Isabelle Huppert, another recent Drama Actress Globe winner.

Erivo, Gascón, Madison and Moore ring as reasonably safe, given the robust buzz for their turns and films. My hunch is that fifth slot goes to one of the past Oscar winners - and it might just be Winslet, given the aggressive campaign she’s running, plus SAG’s penchant for recognizing early releases (e.g. Jennifer Hudson in Respect and Judi Dench in Victoria & Abdul). Kidman and Jolie are right up there, though, and don’t forget Adams managed to make the SAG cut for Hillbilly Elegy. Jean-Baptiste has seen a gangbusters run with the critics’ awards but SAG historically isn’t keen on Mike Leigh pictures. She wasn’t a SAG nominee for Secrets & Lies, nor was Sally Hawkins for Happy-Go-Lucky.

Best Male Actor in a Leading Role

1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist

2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave

3. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown

4. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing

5. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love
   —

6. Hugh Grant, Heretic

7. Daniel Craig, Queer

8. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man

9. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain

10. Glen Powell, Hit Man

This, too, rings of a lineup with a somewhat safe quartet and then a jump ball for that final spot. There’s a case to be made for any of the gents above but I’m going with a curveball. Bob Marley: One Love may have been released nearly an entire year ago but it was a commercial success and, despite lukewarm reviews for the film itself, scored positive notices for its leading man. Ben-Adir made the BAFTA longlist for Leading Actor and SAG has a history of remembering performances forgotten by other precursors. Thus, it shouldn’t be a jaw-dropper if he surfaces here.

Best Female Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez

2. Ariana Grande, Wicked

3. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave

4. Margaret Qualley, The Substance

5. Jamie Lee Curtis, The Last Showgirl
   —

6. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson

7. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist

8. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez

9. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys

10. Joan Chen, Didi

Grande, Rossellini and Saldaña are highly likely for recognition here and everywhere else moving forward. Qualley should be in decent shape too, at least at SAG - the AMPAS aversion to horror does make me nervous for her/her film’s chances come Oscar noms morning. So, yet again, the real suspense may be for the fifth slot. Emilia Pérez has plenty of momentum but I hesitate to predict Gomez when SAG has ignored her for every season of Only Murders in the Building (though that could change this year). I’m also wary of predicting Deadwyler when The Piano Lesson has so struggled to stay relevant in the awards season. I think Jones is a nominee at BAFTA and the Oscars but I’m less confident here. Ultimately, I’m going with another dark horse who also happened to make the BAFTA longlist.

Curtis has worked with just about everyone in the industry and it was SAG that made her a serious contender for Everything Everywhere All at Once. It’s possible not enough voters have seen The Last Showgirl and that could doom her (again, early releases tend to fare better than late ones) - but in a crowded and uncertain field, high name rec and goodwill could be enough to eek out a nomination (though I’m not sure it’ll translate at the Oscars). Beyond the names above, Monica Barbaro, Elle Fanning, Carol Kane, Natasha Lyonne and Adriana Paz could also show up.

Best Male Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

2. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II

3. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist

4. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown

5. Stanley Tucci, Conclave
   —

6. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing

7. Yura Borisov, Anora

8. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice

9. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked

10. Mark Eydelshteyn, Anora

With Culkin seemingly steamrolling to victory, this isn’t the most exciting of the acting fields but in terms of filling out the category, there remains suspense. He, Washington and Pearce should be in good shape here, though I wonder if the sleepy reception for Gladiator II could trip Washington up on Oscar noms morning. I suspect Norton is a nominee would note, for what it’s worth, that SAG ignored him for both Primal Fear and American History X. In a contest between a beloved character actor who’s worked with everyone under the sun (Tucci) and two relative newcomers (Borisov and Maclin), I’m inclined to go with the former, at least here.

FINAL 2023 Oscar Winner Predictions

Best Picture

1. Oppenheimer

2. The Holdovers

3. Anatomy of a Fall

4. The Zone of Interest

5. Killers of the Flower Moon

6. Barbie

7. American Fiction

8. Poor Things

9. Past Lives

10. Maestro

Best Director

1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

2. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall

3. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest

4. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon

5. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things

Best Actress

1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon

2. Emma Stone, Poor Things

3. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall

4. Annette Bening, Nyad

5. Carey Mulligan, Maestro

Best Actor

1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

2. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers

3. Bradley Cooper, Maestro

4. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction

5. Colman Domingo, Rustin

Best Supporting Actress

1. Da'Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

2. America Ferrera, Barbie

3. Jodie Foster, Nyad

4. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer

5. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple

Best Supporting Actor

1. Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer

2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie

3. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things

4. Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction

5. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon

Best Original Screenplay

1. Justine Triet and Arthur Harari, Anatomy of a Fall

2. David Hemingson, The Holdovers

3. Celine Song, Past Lives

4. Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer, Maestro

5. Samy Burch, May December

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Cord Jefferson, American Fiction

2. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest

3. Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach, Barbie

4. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

5. Tony McNamara, Poor Things

Best Animated Feature Film

1. The Boy and the Heron

2. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

3. Elemental

4. Robot Dreams

5. Nimona

Best Animated Short Film

1. WAR IS OVER! Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko

2. Letter to a Pig

3. Ninety-Five Senses

4. Our Uniform

5. Pachyderme

Best Documentary Feature Film

1. 20 Days in Mariupol

2. Four Daughters

3. The Eternal Memory

4. Bobi Wine: The People’s President

5. To Kill a Tiger

Best Documentary Short Film

1. The ABCs of Book Banning

2. Nai Nai and Wai Po

3. The Last Repair Shop

4. The Barber of Little Rock

5. Island in Between

Best International Feature Film

1. The Zone of Interest

2. Society of the Snow

3. Perfect Days

4. The Teachers’ Lounge

5. Io Capitano

Best Live Action Short Film

1. The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

2. Invincible

3. The After

4. Knight of Fortune

5. Red, White and Blue

Best Cinematography

1. Hoyte Van Hoytema, Oppenheimer

2. Rodrigo Prieto, Killers of the Flower Moon

3. Robbie Ryan, Poor Things

4. Matthew Libatique, Maestro

5. Edward Lachman, El Conde

Best Costume Design

1. Jacqueline Durran, Barbie

2. Holly Waddington, Poor Things

3. Jacqueline West, Killers of the Flower Moon

4. Ellen Mirojnick, Oppenheimer

5. Janty Yates and David Crossman, Napoleon

Best Film Editing

1. Jennifer Lame, Oppenheimer

2. Laurent Sénéchal, Anatomy of a Fall

3. Thelma Schoonmaker, Killers of the Flower Moon

4. Yorgos Mavropsaridis, Poor Things

5. Kevin Tent, The Holdovers

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

1. Nadia Stacey, Mark Couler, Josh Weston, Poor Things

2. Kazu Hiro, Sian Grigg, Kay Georgiou and Lori McCoy-Bell, Maestro

3. Luisa Abel, Jason Hamer, Jaime Leigh McIntosh, and Ahou Mofid, Oppenheimer

4. Ana López-Puigcerver, Belén López-Puigcerver, David Martí and Montse Ribé, Society of the Snow

5. Karen Hartley Thomas, Golda

Best Production Design

1. Sarah Greenwood and Katie Spencer, Barbie

2. Shona Heath, James Price and Szusza Mihalek, Poor Things

3. Ruth De Jong and Claire Kaufman, Oppenheimer

4. Jack Fisk and Adam Willis, Killers of the Flower Moon

5. Arthur Max and Elli Griff, Napoleon

Best Original Score

1. Ludwig Göransson, Oppenheimer

2. Robbie Robertson, Killers of the Flower Moon

3. Jerskin Fendrix, Poor Things

4. John Williams, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

5. Laura Karpman, American Fiction

Best Original Song

1. “What Was I Made for,” Barbie

2. “I’m Just Ken,” Barbie

3. “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People),” Killers of the Flower Moon

4. “It Never Went Away,” American Symphony

5. “The Fire Inside,” Flamin’ Hot

Best Sound

1. Richard King, Gary A. Rizzo, Kevin O’Connell and Willie Burton, Oppenheimer

2. Johnnie Burn and Tarn Willers, The Zone of Interest

3. Chris Munro, James H. Mather and Chris Burdon, Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One

4. Richard King, Jason Ruder, Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic and Steve Morrow, Maestro

5. Erik Aadahl, Ethan Van Der Ryn, Ian Voigt, Tom Ozanich and Dean Zupancic, The Creator

Best Visual Effects

1. Kiyoko Shibuya and Takashi Yamazaki, Godzilla Minus One

2. Charley Henley, Neil Corbould, Luc-ewen Martin-fenouillet and Simone Coco, Napoleon

3. Jay Cooper, Ian Comley, Andrew Roberts and Neil Corbould, The Creator

4. Stephane Ceretti, Alexis Wajsbrot, Guy Williams and Dan Sudick, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

5. Alex Wuttke, Simone Coco, Jeff Sutherland and Neil Corbould, Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One