2022 Oscar Nomination Predictions (October)

Oh, hey!

It’s been a tad short of a month since I assembled my first Oscar nom predictions of the season. At this point, the Venice, Telluride and Toronto Film Festivals are behind us, with New York doing its thing as I compose this. A plethora of pictures have seen the light of day, with many impressing and others falling short of expectations (hi, The Son).

Key remaining question marks include Babylon, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and She Said, all of which ring of formidable contenders for Best Picture noms. And then there’s the question of category placement, with Babylon’s Margot Robbie and She Said’s Carey Mulligan & Zoe Kazan seemingly poised for Lead Actress bids but not out of the question for Supporting pushes.

Speaking of Lead vs. Supporting, a development that nicely shook things up was the surprise news that Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans) would join the race in Lead Actress, as opposed to contending over in Supporting - where, pundits presume, she’d have had an easier time prevailing. And perhaps there is some truth there but you know what’s also true? Williams can undoubtedly triumph in Lead.

It remains super early in the season, no doubt, but The Fabelmans looks poised for both critical and commercial success - and Williams, about to be on her fifth Oscar bid without a win, has earned exceedingly glowing praise. Regarding category placement, there is hardly a lack of precedent when it comes to turns on the fence between Lead and Supporting emerging triumphant. Louise Fletcher (One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest), Nicole Kidman (The Hours), Frances McDormand (Fargo), Patricia Neal (Hud) - all Best Actress winners without heaps of screen time. Williams can for sure do the same.

Anyway, below are my updated Oscar nom predictions for the month of October, this time including Animated/Documentary/International Feature, plus the technical fields (I’ll hold off on the Shorts ‘til later in the season). Among the top eight, I note how many spots a contender has moved up or down since my first set of hunches. I’ll do another revision on these sometime in November.

Take care! :)

Best Picture

1. The Fabelmans (-)

2. Babylon (-)

3. The Banshees of Inisherin (-)

4. Everything Everywhere All at Once (+2)

5. Top Gun: Maverick (+2)

6. Women Talking (+2)

7. Avatar: The Way of Water (+2)

8. Elvis (+7)

9. She Said (-5)

10. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (-1)
    —

11. The Whale (-)

12. TÁR (-)

13. Triangle of Sadness (+1)

14. Till (NEW)

15. Decision to Leave (-2)

DROPPED
Armageddon Time (-11)

Best Director

1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (-)

2. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (-)

3. Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness (+4)

4. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (-1)

5. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (-)
   —

6. Darren Aronofsky, The Whale (+2)

7. Todd Field, TÁR (NEW)

8. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (+1)

9. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (+1)

10. Maria Schrader, She Said (-6)

DROPPED
James Gray, Armageddon Time (-5)

Best Actress

1. Cate Blanchett, TÁR (-)

2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (-)

3. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (NEW)

4. Danielle Deadwyler, Till (+6)

5. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light (-)
   —

6. Viola Davis, The Woman King (-)

7. Margot Robbie, Babylon (-4)

8. Carey Mulligan, She Said (-4)

9. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway (-1)

10. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody (-3)

DROPPED
Zoe Kazan, She Said (-2)

Best Actor

1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale (-)

2. Austin Butler, Elvis (+1)

3. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (-1)

4. Bill Nighy, Living (+1)

5. Hugh Jackman, The Son (-1)
   —

6. Adam Driver, White Noise (-)

7. Song Kang-ho, Broker (+2)

8. Diego Calva, Babylon (-1)

9. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick (-1)

10. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection (-)

Best Supporting Actress

1. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking (+1)

2. Hong Chau, The Whale (+2)

3. Jean Smart, Babylon (-)

4. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (+4)

5. Samantha Morton, She Said (-)
   —

6. Dolly de Leon, Triangle of Sadness (NEW)

7. Claire Foy, Women Talking (-1)

8. Sadie Sink, The Whale (-1)

9. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (+1)

10. Laura Dern, The Son (-1)

DROPPED
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans (-10)

Best Supporting Actor

1. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin (-)

2. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans (-)

3. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness (+3)

4. Anthony Hopkins, Armageddon Time (-)

5. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (-)
   —

6. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking (+1)

7. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin (NEW)

8. Brad Pitt, Babylon (-5)

9. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans (-1)

10. Jeremy Strong, Armageddon Time (-1)

DROPPED
Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway (-1)

Best Original Screenplay

1. Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner, The Fabelmans (-)

2. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin (-)

3. Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness (+4)

4. Jeong Seo-kyeong and Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave (-)

5. Damien Chazelle, Babylon (-2)
   —

6. James Gray, Armageddon Time (-1)

7. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once (-1)

8. Todd Field, TÁR (+1)

9. Charlotte Wells, Aftersun (NEW)

10. Sam Mendes, Empire of Light (-)

DROPPED
Billy Eichner and Nicholas Stoller, Bros (-3)

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Sarah Polley, Women Talking (-)

2. Noah Baumbach, White Noise (-)

3. Rian Johnson, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (-)

4. Kazuo Ishiguro, Living (+1)

5. Rebecca Lenkiewicz, She Said (-1)
   —

6. Samuel D. Hunter, The Whale (-)

7. Chinonye Chukwu, Michael Reilly and Keith Beauchamp, Till (NEW)

8. Ryan Coogler and Joe Robert Cole, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (-)

9. Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Singer, Christopher McQuarrie, Top Gun: Maverick (NEW)

10. Ian Stokell, Lesley Paterson and Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front (-)

DROPPED
Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller, The Son (-4)
Audrey Diwan, Marcia Romano and Anne Berest, Happening (-2)

Best Animated Feature

1. Turning Red

2. Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio

3. Strange World

4. Marcel the Shell with Shoes on

5. The Bad Guys
   —

6. Wendell & Wild

7. The Sea Beast

8. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

9. Minions: The Rise of Gru

10. My Father’s Dragon

Best Documentary Feature

1. Descendant

2. Fire of Love

3. Good Night Oppy

4. The Territory

5. Black Ice
   —

6. Aftershock

7. Navalny

8. Retrograde

9. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

10. Sr.

Best International Feature

1. Decision to Leave (Korea)

2. All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)

3. Bardo (Mexico)

4. Klondike (Ukraine)

5. Close (Belgium)
   —

6. Holy Spider (Denmark)

7. Boy from Heaven (Sweden)

8. Cinema Sabaya (Israel)

9. Saint Omer (France)

10. Corsage (Austria)

Best Cinematography

1. Janusz Kaminski, The Fabelmans

2. Roger Deakins, Empire of Light

3. Linus Sandgren, Babylon

4. Russell Carpenter, Avatar: The Way of Water

5. James Friend, All Quiet on the Western Front
   —

6. Mandy Walker, Elvis

7. Claudio Miranda, Top Gun: Maverick

8. Darius Khondji, Bardo

9. Chayse Irvin, Blonde

10. Florian Hoffmeister, TÁR

Best Costume Design

1. Ruth E. Carter, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

2. Mary Zophres, Babylon

3. Catherine Martin, Elvis

4. Gersha Phillips, The Woman King

5. Monika Buttinger, Corsage
   —

6. Jenny Beavan, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

7. Shirley Kurata, Everything Everywhere All At Once

8. Mark Bridges, The Fabelmans

9. Jennifer Johnson, Blonde

10. Oliver Garcia, Chevalier

Best Film Editing

1. Eddie Hamilton, Top Gun: Maverick

2. Paul Rogers, Everything Everywhere All at Once

3. Sarah Broshar and Michael Kahn, The Fabelmans

4. David Brenner, James Cameron, John Refouaa and Stephen E. Rivkin, Avatar: The Way of Water

5. Tom Cross, Babylon
   —

6. Matt Villa and Jonathan Redmond‎, Elvis

7. Monika Willi, TÁR

8. Michael P. Shawver, Kelley Dixon and Jennifer Lame, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

9. Sven Budelmann, All Quiet on the Western Front

10. Bob Ducsay, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Story

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

1. The team from The Whale

2. The team from Elvis

3. The team from Babylon

4. The team from The Batman

5. The team from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
   —

6. The team from The Woman King

7. The team from Blonde

8. The team from The Northman

9. The team from Everything Everywhere All at Once

10. The team from Amsterdam

Best Original Score

1. John Williams, The Fabelmans

2. Hildur Guðnadóttir, TÁR

3. Justin Hurwitz, Babylon

4. Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, Empire of Light

5. Alexandre Desplat, Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio
   —

6. Carter Burwell, The Banshees of Inisherin

7. Ludwig Göransson, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

8. Terence Blanchard, The Woman King

9. Son Lux, Everything Everywhere All at Once

10. Simon Franglen, Avatar: The Way of Water

Best Original Song

1. “Hold My Hand,” Top Gun: Maverick

2. “Applause,” Tell It Like a Woman

3. “Dust and Ash,” The Voice of Dust and Ash

4. “Naatu Naatu,” RRR

5. “This Is a Life,” Everything Everywhere All at Once
   —

6. “Nobody Like U,” Turning Red

7. “(You Made It Feel Like) Home,” Bones and All

8. “At the Automat,” The Automat

9. “New Body Rhumba,” White Noise

10. “Carolina,” Where the Crawdads Sing

Best Production Design

1. Catherine Martin, Karen Murphy and Beverley Dunn, Elvis

2. Florencia Martin and Anthony Carlino, Babylon

3. Dylan Cole, Ben Procter and Vanessa Cole, Avatar: The Way of Water

4. Rick Carter and Karen O’Hara, The Fabelmans

5. Hannah Beachler and Lisa K. Sessions, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
   —

6. Jason Kisvarday and Kelsi Ephraim, Everything Everywhere All at Once

7. Rick Heinrichs, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

8. Eugenio Caballero, Bardo

9. Christian M. Goldbeck, All Quiet on the Western Front

10. Akin McKenzie, The Woman King

Best Sound

1. The team from Top Gun: Maverick

2. The team from Elvis

3. The team from Avatar: The Way of Water

4. The team from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

5. The team from All Quiet on the Western Front
   —

6. The team from Everything Everywhere All at Once

7. The team from Babylon

8. The team from TÁR

9. The team from The Batman

10. The team from Nope

Best Visual Effects

1. The team from Avatar: The Way of Water

2. The team from Top Gun: Maverick

3. The team from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

4. The team from Everything Everywhere All at Once

5. The team from Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio
   —

6. The team from RRR

7. The team from Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness

8. The team from The Batman

9. The team from Good Night Oppy

10. The team from Nope

2022 Oscar Nomination Predictions (September)

Farewell Emmys, hello Oscars!

It feels all too recent that awards prognosticators, myself included, were pulling their hair out over whether it’d be CODA or The Power of the Dog in Best Picture. Now, six months later, the latest plethora of Oscar contenders are getting ready for battle, with many surfacing at the Telluride, Toronto and Venice Film Festivals.

In recent days, with early reviews dropping on a number of wannabe honorees, I’ve found myself tinkering with predictions over and over again. My initial, pre-festival hunches were jam-packed with the likes of Bardo (or False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths), Empire of Light and The Son, films which - on paper but evidently not in reality - looked like daunting awards season contenders.

It’s hard to be terribly confident about anything at this stage in the game. The likes of Everything Everywhere All at Once and Top Gun: Maverick have already proven critical and commercial smashes - the question is whether these earlier releases sustain that momentum heading into the fall and winter.

In the acting fields, the likes of Cate Blanchett, Michelle Yeoh, Brendan Fraser, Colin Farrell, Austin Butler and Michelle Williams have already scored raves for their turns and will surely be prominent players throughout the season. Many performances, however, have yet to be seen, so to call any of them shoo-ins would make me a silly goose.

And yes, I will presume Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon is not happening until 2023.

With that said, here are my hunches for now in the top eight categories, ranked from most to least likely to be nominated. I’ll update these at some point next month, at which point we’ll perhaps have a tad more clarity.

Enjoy! :)

Best Picture

1. The Fabelmans

2. Babylon

3. The Banshees of Inisherin

4. She Said

5. Armageddon Time

6. Everything Everywhere All at Once

7. Top Gun: Maverick

8. Women Talking

9. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

10. Avatar: The Way of Water
    —

11. The Whale

12. TÁR

13. Decision to Leave

14. Triangle of Sadness

15. Elvis

Best Director

1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans

2. Damien Chazelle, Babylon

3. Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave

4. Maria Schrader, She Said

5. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
   —

6. James Gray, Armageddon Time

7. Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness

8. Darren Aronofsky, The Whale

9. Sarah Polley, Women Talking

10. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Best Actress

1. Cate Blanchett, TÁR

2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

3. Margot Robbie, Babylon

4. Carey Mulligan, She Said

5. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light
   —

6. Viola Davis, The Woman King

7. Naomi Ackie, I Wanna Dance with Somebody

8. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway

9. Zoe Kazan, She Said

10. Danielle Deadwyler, Till

Best Actor

1. Brendan Fraser, The Whale

2. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin

3. Austin Butler, Elvis

4. Hugh Jackman, The Son

5. Bill Nighy, Living
   —

6. Adam Driver, White Noise

7. Diego Calva, Babylon

8. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick

9. Song Kang-ho, Broker

10. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection

Best Supporting Actress

1. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans

2. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking

3. Jean Smart, Babylon

4. Hong Chau, The Whale

5. Samantha Morton, She Said
   —

6. Claire Foy, Women Talking

7. Sadie Sink, The Whale

8. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin

9. Laura Dern, The Son

10. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Best Supporting Actor

1. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin

2. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans

3. Brad Pitt, Babylon

4. Anthony Hopkins, Armageddon Time

5. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
   —

6. Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness

7. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking

8. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans

9. Jeremy Strong, Armageddon Time

10. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway

Best Original Screenplay

1. Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner, The Fabelmans

2. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin

3. Damien Chazelle, Babylon

4. Jeong Seo-kyeong and Park Chan-wook, Decision to Leave

5. James Gray, Armageddon Time
   —

6. Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once

7. Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness

8. Billy Eichner and Nicholas Stoller, Bros

9. Todd Field, TÁR

10. Sam Mendes, Empire of Light

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Sarah Polley, Women Talking

2. Noah Baumbach, White Noise

3. Rian Johnson, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

4. Rebecca Lenkiewicz, She Said

5. Kazuo Ishiguro, Living
   —

6. Samuel D. Hunter, The Whale

7. Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller, The Son

8. Ryan Coogler and Joe Robert Cole, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

9. Audrey Diwan, Marcia Romano and Anne Berest, Happening

10. Ian Stokell, Lesley Paterson and Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front

FINAL 2021 Oscar Winner Predictions

We are so close!

Come Sunday, this awards season, a largely exasperating endeavor that has sported some marvelous movies but not always brought out the best in film fans, will come to a close.

As we reach a conclusion, many categories appear all but completely sewn up, including a trio of acting awards, handful of technical prizes and honors for directing, where no one has surfaced to pose a real threat to Jane Campion.

There does, however, remain a fair share of suspense, including in the top category, where SAG, PGA and WGA victories have catapulted CODA (for the record, my favorite film of the year) from underdog to potential winner. Without a doubt, it has surged at precisely the right time, sporting momentum just as voters are taking to their ballots. The question remains, however - can CODA, with its mere trio of nominations, really take down 12-time nominee The Power of the Dog?

It’s a plenty plausible outcome, especially with the curveball of a preferential ballot. But it remains unclear whether voters in the craft categories, who are clearly fond of The Power of the Dog, are all that taken with CODA. (Pre-PGA, I suspected Belfast, which did muster a healthy spread of Oscar noms, would prove the greatest threat.) They may be - and it’s not as if films devoid of technical nominations are instantly doomed in Best Picture.

But much as I’d love to predict CODA, I cannot get past The Power of the Dog’s haul on nominations morning. If it may not rack up much in the way of wins, we have unimpeachable evidence, through these noms, that broad support exists for the Campion picture.

Then there’s the Best Actress situation, where Jessica Chastain, with SAG and Critics’ Choice wins, now looks like the one to beat. No doubt, she is very well-positioned, especially as the category’s lone nominee without an Oscar win.

Chastain is not, however, a shoo-in on the level of Will Smith, Ariana DeBose and Troy Kotsur. Her film was neither a critical nor commercial hit and her competition, with the possible exception of Nicole Kidman, has fiercely passionate supporters. It’s just not terribly clear who the alternative to Chastain would be. It may just be Olivia Colman, who has scored a Best Actress upset before and whose film has a tad more AMPAS support than Chastain’s. Had The Lost Daughter made it into Best Picture, I’d likely be predicting her here.

Both screenwriting categories remain unsettled, made all the more chaotic by WGA inexplicably going for Don’t Look Up. At this point, Belfast’s one remaining hope likely lies in that category, Best Original Screenplay. If CODA scores Best Adapted Screenplay, expect it to go all the way in Best Picture. I suppose it could still take top honors without it…but not terribly likely.

Down the ballot, keep an eye on Flee in its trio of categories, all of which it’s tragically poised to finish 2nd or 3rd in. The shorts seem to have modest front-runners this year but are always ripe for upsets.

In the craft categories, suspense remains in several fields, including Best Cinematography, Best Film Editing, Best Original Score, Best Original Song and Best Production Design. If The Power of the Dog can muster anything in the technical races, take that as an exceedingly strong sign that it’s prevailing in Picture. It’s also down the ballot where surprise Best Picture nominee Nightmare Alley may have a prayer to score a trophy or two.

So, that’s that. Let’s get to it - below are my final Oscar winner predictions, ranked from most to least likely to win. Fingers crossed we’re in for a ceremony that isn’t an awe-inspiring trainwreck - and that discourse among film fans post-ceremony is a little more civil than it’s all too proven pre-Oscars.

Good luck! :)

Best Picture

1. The Power of the Dog

2. CODA

3. Belfast

4. King Richard

5. West Side Story

6. Dune

7. Licorice Pizza

8. Don’t Look Up

9. Drive My Car

10. Nightmare Alley

Best Director

1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

2. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story

3. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast

4. Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car

5. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza

Best Actress

1. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

2. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter

3. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers

4. Kristen Stewart, Spencer

5. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos

Best Actor

1. Will Smith, King Richard

2. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog

3. Andrew Garfield, tick, tick... BOOM!

4. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth

5. Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos

Best Supporting Actress

1. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story

2. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog

3. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard

4. Judi Dench, Belfast

5. Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter

Best Supporting Actor

1. Troy Kotsur, CODA

2. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog

3. Ciarán Hinds, Belfast

4. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog

5. J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos

Best Original Screenplay

1. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast

2. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza

3. Adam McKay and David Sirota, Don’t Look Up

4. Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier, The Worst Person in the World

5. Zach Baylin, King Richard

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

2. Sian Heder, CODA

3. Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter

4. Ryusuke Hamaguchi and Takamasa Oe, Drive My Car

5. Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve and Eric Roth, Dune

Best Animated Feature

1. Encanto

2. The Mitchells vs. The Machines

3. Flee

4. Luca

5. Raya and the Last Dragon

Best Animated Short Film

1. Robin Robin

2. Affairs of the Art

3. The Windshield Wiper

4. Bestia

5. BoxBallet

Best Documentary Feature

1. Summer of Soul (...Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)

2. Flee

3. Writing with Fire

4. Attica

5. Ascension

Best Documentary Short Subject

1. The Queen of Basketball

2. Audible

3. Lead Me Home

4. Three Songs for Benazir

5. When We Were Bullies

Best International Feature

1. Drive My Car (Japan)

2. The Worst Person in the World (Norway)

3. Flee (Denmark)

4. The Hand of God (Italy)

5. Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan)

Best Live Action Short Film

1. The Long Goodbye

2. Ala Kachuu - Take and Run

3. On My Mind

4. The Dress

5. Please Hold

Best Cinematography

1. Greig Fraser, Dune

2. Ari Wegner, The Power of the Dog

3. Dan Laustsen, Nightmare Alley

4. Janusz Kamiński, West Side Story

5. Bruno Delbonnel, The Tragedy of Macbeth

Best Costume Design

1. Jenny Beavan, Cruella

2. Jacqueline West and Robert Morgan, Dune

3. Paul Tazewell, West Side Story

4. Luis Sequeira, Nightmare Alley

5. Massimo Cantini Parrini and Jacqueline Durran, Cyrano

Best Film Editing

1. Joe Walker, Dune

2. Pamela Martin, King Richard

3. Peter Sciberras, The Power of the Dog

4. Myron Kerstein and Andrew Weisblum, tick, tick... BOOM!

5. Hank Corwin, Don’t Look Up

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

1. Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram and Justin Raleigh, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

2. Nadia Stacey, Naomi Donne and Julia Vernon, Cruella

3. Mike Marino, Stacey Morris and Carla Farmer, Coming 2 America

4. Göran Lundström, Anna Carin Lock and Frederic Aspiras, House of Gucci

5. Donald Mowat, Love Larson and Eva von Bahr, Dune

Best Original Score

1. Hans Zimmer, Dune

2. Jonny Greenwood, The Power of the Dog

3. Germaine Franco, Encanto

4. Nicholas Britell, Don’t Look Up

5. Alberto Iglesias, Parallel Mothers

Best Original Song

1. “No Time to Die,” No Time to Die

2. "Dos Oruguitas,” Encanto

3. “Be Alive,” King Richard

4. “Down to Joy,” Belfast

5. “Somehow You Do,” Four Good Days

Best Production Design

1. Tamara Deverell and Shane Vieau, Nightmare Alley

2. Patrice Vermette and Zsuzsanna Sipos, Dune

3. Stefan Dechant and Nancy Haigh, The Tragedy of Macbeth

4. Adam Stockhausen and: Rena DeAngelo, West Side Story

5. Grant Major and Amber Richards, The Power of the Dog

Best Sound

1. Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Theo Green, Doug Hemphill and Ron Bartlett, Dune

2. Simon Hayes, Oliver Tarney, James Harrison, Paul Massey and Mark Taylor, No Time to Die

3. Tod A. Maitland, Gary Rydstrom, Brian Chumney, Andy Nelson and Shawn Murphy, West Side Story

4. Richard Flynn, Robert Mackenzie and Tara Webb, The Power of the Dog

5. Denise Yarde, Simon Chase, James Mather and Niv Adiri, Belfast

Best Visual Effects

1. Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor and Gerd Nefzer, Dune

2. Kelly Port, Chris Waegner, Scott Edelstein and Dan Sudick, Spider-Man: No Way Home

3. Charlie Noble, Joel Green, Jonathan Fawkner and Chris Corbould, No Time to Die

4. Swen Gillberg, Bryan Grill, Nikos Kalaitzidis and Dan Sudick, Free Guy

5. Christopher Townsend, Joe Farrell, Sean Noel Walker and Dan Oliver, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings

FINAL 2021 Oscar Nomination Predictions

We’re so close.

It’s been the oddest of awards seasons, as we venture into Oscar nominations morning without the usual pomp and circumstance from the Golden Globes (held but not televised) and Critics’ Choice Awards (delayed and will later be televised). While the critics’ awards, guild awards and BAFTA have given us a fair idea of what to likely expect from AMPAS, it nonetheless feels like this awards season never had a proper kickoff. With Tuesday’s announcement, this will change.

A healthy sense of suspense remains ahead of the nominations. We know, of course, that the likes of Belfast, Dune, The Power of the Dog and West Side Story are poised for strong showings…but just how robust will their hauls prove? And are the likes of Kenneth Branagh and Steven Spielberg really shoo-ins in Best Director or could more surprises be on the horizon there than anticipated?

Contenders like CODA, King Richard and Licorice Pizza all seem destined for at least modest batches of nominations, while the likes of Being the Ricardos, House of Gucci, tick, tick…BOOM! and The Tragedy of Macbeth could finish strong or just as easily underwhelm. And you can’t count out a film like No Time to Die, which doesn’t ring of traditional Oscar fare but has seen an exceedingly healthy awards season run in the technical fields.

The acting categories remain awfully unsettled, with Lead Actor perhaps the most set in stone and sporting just one competitive slot. Despite some BAFTA battiness, Lady Gaga, Nicole Kidman and Olivia Colman seem reasonably safe over in Lead Actress, as does Jessica Chastain, albeit to a little lesser extent. That final slot feels like a jump ball among half a dozen (or more!) contenders.

The Supporting fields are tougher to forecast, with really just two contenders in each - Ariana DeBose & Caitriona Balfe and Kodi Smit-McPhee & Troy Kotsur - looking safe. BAFTA and SAG snubs have cast mild doubt on Kirsten Dunst and Aunjanue Ellis, though odds are both make the cut. And while I remain anxious that Passing may be in for a shutout on nominations morning, it’s tough to argue Ruth Negga, who’s had a nice precursors run, isn’t poised for a slot. There are, however, several strong contenders right on her heels.

Over in Supporting Actor, Jared Leto and Bradley Cooper have high name rec and grace films destined for recognition across a variety of categories, while the likes of Mike Faist and/or Jesse Plemons could sneak in if AMPAS goes especially gaga for one of their films. The Belfast buzz doesn’t seem potent enough for double nominations in either category.

Down in the technical fields, expect lots of Dune, West Side Story and, as earlier mentioned, No Time to Die, which could rack up half a dozen or more nominations when all is said and done.

All that said, let’s just dive right into it - final Oscar nom predictions of the season, from most to least likely to earn a nomination. In countless cases, a contender has moved up or down from my last forecast - or bolted from its category entirely.

Enjoy! :)

Best Picture

1. The Power of the Dog (-)

2. Dune (+3)

3. Licorice Pizza (+1)

4. Belfast (-1)

5. West Side Story (-3)

6. Don’t Look Up (+3)

7. CODA (-1)

8. King Richard (-1)

9. Drive My Car (+6)

10. House of Gucci (NEW)
    —

11. tick, tick…BOOM! (-3)

12. Being the Ricardos (+1)

13. The Tragedy of Macbeth (-3)

14. The Lost Daughter (-3)

15. No Time to Die (NEW)

DROPPED
Nightmare Alley (-4)
Spider-Man: No Way Home (-2)

Best Director

1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (-)

2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (+1)

3. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (+1)

4. Ryûsuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car (+1)

5. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (-3)
   —

6. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (-)

7. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up (+2)

8. Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter (-)

9. Siân Heder, CODA (-3)

10. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (-)

Best Actress

1. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (+2)

2. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (+2)

3. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (-1)

4. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (+3)

5. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (-)
   —

6. Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza (-)

7. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (+3)

8. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (-7)

9. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (-1)

10. Emilia Jones, CODA (-1)

Best Actor

1. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (-)

2. Will Smith, King Richard (-)

3. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (-)

4. Andrew Garfield, tick, tick…BOOM! (-)

5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (+1)
   —

6. Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos (NEW)

7. Mahershala Ali, Swan Song (NEW)

8. Nicolas Cage, Pig (-1)

9. Joaquin Phoenix, C’mon C’mon (-3)

10. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (-)

DROPPED
Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey (-3)
Cooper Hoffman, Licorice Pizza (-2)

Best Supporting Actress

1. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (+1)

2. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (+2)

3. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (-2)

4. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (-1)

5. Ruth Negga, Passing (+2)
   —

6. Ann Dowd, Mass (+3)

7. Rita Moreno, West Side Story (-1)

8. Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley (NEW)

9. Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter (NEW)

10. Marlee Matlin, CODA (-2)

DROPPED
Judi Dench, Belfast (-6)
Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up (-4)

Best Supporting Actor

1. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (-)

2. Troy Kotsur, CODA (-)

3. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast (-)

4. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (+2)

5. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (+2)
   —

6. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog (+4)

7. J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos (-2)

8. Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar (+1)

9. Mike Faist, West Side Story (-1)

10. Jamie Dornan, Belfast (-6)

Best Original Screenplay

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (-)

2. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (-)

3. Adam McKay and David Sirota, Don’t Look Up (-)

4. Aaron Sorkin, Being the Ricardos (+4)

5. Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola, Hugo Guinness and Jason Schwartzman, The French Dispatch (-)
   —

6. Zach Baylin, King Richard (-2)

7. Pedro Almodovar, Parallel Mothers (+2)

8. Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier, The Worst Person in the World (NEW)

9. Asghar Farhadi, A Hero (-2)

10. Mike Mills, C’mon C’mon (-4)

DROPPED
Paolo Sorrentino, The Hand of God (-1)

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (-)

2. Tony Kushner, West Side Story (-)

3. Sian Heder, CODA (-)

4. Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter (-)

5. Ryusuke Hamaguchi and Takamasa Oe, Drive My Car (-)
   —

6. Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve and Eric Roth, Dune (+3)

7. Steven Levenson, tick, tick... BOOM! (-)

8. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (-2)

9. Guillermo del Toro and Kim Morgan, Nightmare Alley (+1)

10. Rebecca Hall, Passing (-2)

Best Animated Feature

1. Encanto (-)

2. Luca (+1)

3. Raya and the Last Dragon (+1)

4. The Mitchells vs. the Machines (+4)

5. Flee (-3)
   —

6. Belle (-1)

7. Sing 2 (+2)

8. The Summit of the Gods (-1)

9. Ron’s Gone Wrong (+1)

10. Vivo (-4)

Best Animated Short Film

1. Us Again (+7)

2. Robin Robin (+7)

3. Affairs of the Art (-2)

4. Step into the River (-)

5. Bestia (-3)
   —

6. Mum Is Pouring Rain (-3)

7. Namoo (-1)

8. The Windshield Wiper (-1)

9. Souvenir Souvenir (+1)

10. The Musician (-5)

Best Documentary Feature

1. Flee (-)

2. The Rescue (+1)

3. The First Wave (+1)

4. Procession (+4)

5. Billie Eilish: The World’s a Little Blurry (+4)
   —

6. Summer Of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised) (-4)

7. The Velvet Underground (NEW)

8. Attica (+2)

9. Simple as Water (-2)

10. Julia (NEW)

DROPPED
Faya Dayi (-6)
Writing with Fire (-5)

Best Documentary Short Subject

1. The Queen of Basketball (+8)

2. Audible (NEW)

3. Terror Contagion (NEW)

4. Sophie & the Baron (+1)

5. Águilas (-4)
   —

6. Three Songs for Benazir (-4)

7. A Broken House (-4)

8. Lead Me Home (-2)

9. Day of Rage (-2)

10. Camp Confidential: America’s Secret Nazis (-2)

DROPPED
Lynching Postcards: “Token of a Great Day” (-7)
The Facility (-1)

Best International Feature

1. Drive My Car (Japan) (-)

2. Flee (Denmark) (-)

3. The Worst Person in the World (Norway) (+2)

4. A Hero (Iran) (-1)

5. The Hand of God (Italy) (-1)
   —

6. Compartment No. 6 (Finland) (-)

7. Prayers for the Stolen (Mexico) (+2)

8. Playground (Belgium) (+2)

9. I’m Your Man (Germany) (-2)

10. Hive (Kosovo) (NEW)

DROPPED
Lamb (Iceland) (-3)

Best Live Action Short Film

1. Under the Heavens (+9)

2. Les Grandes Claques (-)

3. When the Sun Sets (NEW)

4. The Long Goodbye (+2)

5. Censor of Dreams (+2)
   —

6. The Criminals (-5)

7. Frimas (-4)

8. Stenofonen (-4)

9. You’re Dead Hélène (-4)

10. The Dress (-2)

DROPPED
Distances (-2)

Best Cinematography

1. Greig Fraser, Dune (-)

2. Ari Wegner, The Power of the Dog (-)

3. Bruno Delbonnel, The Tragedy of Macbeth (+2)

4. Haris Zambarloukos, Belfast (-)

5. Dan Laustsen, Nightmare Alley (+1)
   —

6. Janusz Kaminski, West Side Story (-3)

7. Paul Thomas Anderson and Michael Bauman, Licorice Pizza (-)

8. Linus Sandgren, No Time to Die (NEW)

9. Claire Mithon, Spencer (-1)

10. Robert Yeoman, The French Dispatch (-1)

DROPPED
Eduard Grau, Passing (-1)

Best Costume Design

1. Jenny Beavan, Cruella (+1)

2. Luis Sequeira, Nightmare Alley (+1)

3. Janty Yates, House of Gucci (+1)

4. Paul Tazewell, West Side Story (-1)

5. Jacqueline West, Dune (+1)
   —

6. Massimo Cantini Parrini, Cyrano (+2)

7. Milena Canonero, The French Dispatch (-)

8. Jacqueline Durran, Spencer (-5)

9. Suttirat Anne Larlarb, No Time to Die (NEW)

10. Kirsty Cameron, The Power of the Dog (-)

DROPPED
Susan Lyall, Being the Ricardos (-2)

Best Film Editing

1. Joe Walker, Dune (-)

2. Peter Sciberras, The Power of the Dog (-)

3. Andy Jurgensen, Licorice Pizza (+1)

4. Tom Cross and Elliot Graham, No Time to Die (+2)

5. Sarah Broshar and Michael Kahn, West Side Story (-2)
   —

6. Úna Ní Dhonghaíle, Belfast (-1)

7. Pamela Martin, King Richard (-)

8. Hank Corwin, Don’t Look Up (-)

9. Myron Kerstein and Andrew Weisblum, tick, tick... BOOM! (-)

10. Alan Baumgarten, Being the Ricardos (NEW)

DROPPED
Geraud Brisson, CODA (-1)

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

1. Jana Carboni, Giuliano Mariano and Göran Lundström, House of Gucci (-)

2. Nadia Stacey and Carolyn Cousins, Cruella (+3)

3. Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram and Justin Raleigh, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (-)

4. Heba Thorisdottir and Janine Thompson, The Suicide Squad (+2)

5. Vera Steimberg, Merc Arceneaux, Stacey Morris and Carla Farmer, Coming 2 America (+2)
   —

6. Donald Mowat, Love Larson and Eva von Bahr, Dune (-2)

7. Cliona Furey and Jo-Ann MacNeil, Nightmare Alley (-5)

8. Sian Miller and Alessandro Bertolazzi, Cyrano (+1)

9. Judy Chin and Kay Georgiou, West Side Story (-1)

10. Daniel Phillips, No Time to Die (-)

Best Original Score

1. Hans Zimmer, Dune (+1)

2. Jonny Greenwood, The Power of the Dog (-1)

3. Alexandre Desplat, The French Dispatch (+1)

4. Nicholas Britell, Don’t Look Up (+5)

5. Carter Burwell, The Tragedy of Macbeth (+1)
   —

6. Germaine Franco, Encanto (-1)

7. Hans Zimmer, No Time to Die (NEW)

8. Alberto Iglesias, Parallel Mothers (-1)

9. Daniel Pemberton, Being the Ricardos (-1)

10. Jonny Greenwood, Spencer (-7)

DROPPED
Kris Bowers, King Richard (-1)

Best Original Song

1. “No Time to Die,” No Time to Die (-)

2. “Dos Oruguitas,” Encanto (-)

3. “Down to Joy,” Belfast (-)

4. “Here I Am (Singing My Way Home),” Respect (+1)

5. “Beyond the Shore,” CODA (+1)
   —

6. “Be Alive,” King Richard (-2)

7. “Somehow You Do,” Four Good Days (+1)

8. “Just Look Up,” Don’t Look Up (+1)

9. “So May We Start,” Annette (-2)

10. “Your Song Saved My Life,” Sing 2 (NEW)

DROPPED
“Right Where I Belong,” Brian Wilson: Long Promised Road (-1)

Best Production Design

1. Tamara Deverell and Shane Vieau, Nightmare Alley (+2)

2. Patrice Vermette, Richard Roberts and Zsuzsanna Sipos, Dune (-1)

3. Adam Stockhausen and Rena DeAngelo, West Side Story (-1)

4. Adam Stockhausen and Rena DeAngelo, The French Dispatch (+1)

5. Stefan Dechant and Nancy Haigh, The Tragedy of Macbeth (+3)
   —

6. Grant Major and Amber Richards, The Power of the Dog (-2)

7. Arthur Max and Letizia Santucci, House of Gucci (-1)

8. Mark Tildesley and Veronique Melery, No Time to Die (NEW)

9. Florencia Martin and Ryan Watson, Licorice Pizza (NEW)

10. Jon Hutman and Ellen Brill, Being the Ricardos (-1)

DROPPED
Guy Hendrix-Dyas and Yesim Zolan, Spencer (-4)
Jim Clay and Claire Nia Richards, Belfast (-1)

Best Sound

1. Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Theo Green, Doug Hemphill and Ron Bartlett, Dune (-)

2. Gary Rydstrom, Brian Chumney, Andy Nelson, Tod Maitland and Shawn Murphy, West Side Story (-)

3. Simon Hayes, Oliver Tarney and Paul Massey, No Time to Die (+2)

4. Willie Burton, Kevin O’Connell, Tony Lambert, Steven Ticknor and Vanessa Lapato, Spider-Man: No Way Home (-)

5. Ethan Van Der Ryn, Erik Aadahl, Michael Barosky and Brandon Proctor, A Quiet Place Part II (+3)
   —

6. Paul Hsu and Todd A. Maitland, tick, tick...BOOM! (-)

7. Robert Mackenzie, Richard Flynn, Leah Katz, Tara Webb and Dave Whitehead, The Power of the Dog (-4)

8. Julian Slater, Dan Morgan, Colin Nicolson, Tim Cavagin, Last Night in Soho (+2)

9. Barry O’Sullivan, Dana A. Davis, Stephanie Flack, Matthias Lempert and Lars Ginzel, The Matrix Resurrections (-)

10. Simon Chase, James Mather, Denise Yarde and Niv Adris, Belfast (-3)

Best Visual Effects

1. Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor and Gerd Nefzer, Dune (-)

2. Kelly Port, Chris Waegner, Scott Edelstein and Dan Sudick, Spider-Man: No Way Home (-)

3. Charlie Noble and Chris Corbould, No Time to Die (+3)

4. Dan Glass, Huw J Evans, Tom Debenham and J.D. Schwalm, The Matrix Resurrections (-1)

5. Christopher Townsend, Joe Farrell, Sean Walker, Dan Oliver, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (-1)
   —

6. Stephane Ceretti, Daniele Bigi, Matt Aitken and Neil Corbould, Eternals (+1)

7. Swen Gillberg, Bryan Grill, Nikos Kalaitzidis and Dan Sudick, Free Guy (-2)

8. John Desjardin, Bryan Hirota, Kevin Smith and Mike Meinardus, Godzilla vs. Kong (-)

9. Alessandro Ongaro, Sheena Duggal, Aharon Bourland and Pier Lefebvre, Ghostbusters: Afterlife (-)

10. Geoffrey Baumann, Dave Hodgins, Craig Hammack and Paul Corbould, Black Widow (-)

2021 Oscar Nomination Predictions (January)

Oh hi. :)

It was an eventful December in the awards season as an onslaught of critics’ groups, among them the Critics Choice Awards, announced their rosters of honorees. The Power of the Dog most made a killing among these precursors, but it was a robust month too for the likes of Drive My Car and Licorice Pizza, plus acting contenders like Ariana DeBose (West Side Story) and Kristen Stewart (Spencer).

Ultimately, however, did these awards provide heaps of clarity as to who is favored to take home Oscars? Not so much.

While The Power of the Dog may indeed have racked up a plethora of wins among the critics’ groups, it remains to be seen whether this slow burn will continue its momentum into the new year, as guild awards have their say. No doubt, it will rack up a healthy stack of nominations over the coming month and once the Oscars announce in February. It’s entirely plausible, however, that other contenders, the likes of Belfast, Licorice Pizza and West Side Story - perhaps even a dark horse like CODA, too (I’m looking at you, SAG) - make a comparable or greater connection in terms of wins. (That said, Jane Campion sure does look formidable in Best Director.)

The acting categories are tougher than ever to figure out.

Stewart continues to look like the Best Actress favorite, albeit a soft one at that. What’s helping her is the lack of a clear alternative. Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos) looked like that formidable opponent until reviews for her film proved more lukewarm than expected. Instead, it may be Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter) who most puts up a fight, especially if her film can land in Best Picture, which seems a more plausible feat than Spencer making the cut.

Speaking of soft front-runners, it’s arguable at this point whether Will Smith (King Richard) is really a favorite at all in Best Actor. With Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog) faring exceedingly well among the critics’ prizes, this race for now feels like a barn burner between these two contenders.

Over in the Supporting fields, DeBose is looking awfully strong for Best Supporting Actress honors, though Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog), Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard) and Catriona Balfe (Belfast) are not to be counted out, especially if AMPAS goes gaga for one of their films.

Best Supporting Actor has seen Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog) clean up the bulk of critics’ prizes but I hesitate to label his exceedingly understated turn as a heavy favorite. If AMPAS falls head over heels for CODA, it’s easy to fathom Troy Kotsur emerging triumphant. Likewise, if they adore Belfast, Ciaran Hinds and Jamie Dornan may be in play. And if Bradley Cooper (Licorice Pizza) manages to make the cut, we’re all in for the “is this his time?!” conversation.

Down the ballot, you’ll of course see heaps of Belfast, Dune, The Power of the Dog and West Side Story and, with AMPAS announcing its shortlists for the year, I’m taking a stab at the trio of shorts categories for the first time this season.

Without further ado, here they are - updated predictions for the month of January, from most to least likely to earn a nomination. In countless cases, a contender has moved up or down from my December forecast - or dropped from its category entirely. Expect one final update in early February, just prior to Oscar nominations morning.

Bon appétit!

Best Picture

1. The Power of the Dog (+1)

2. West Side Story (+4)

3. Belfast (-2)

4. Licorice Pizza (-)

5. Dune (-2)

6. CODA (+2)

7. King Richard (-2)

8. tick, tick…BOOM! (NEW)

9. Don’t Look Up (-2)

10. The Tragedy of Macbeth (-)
    —

11. The Lost Daughter (+3)

12. Nightmare Alley (-1)

13. Being the Ricardos (-1)

14. Spider-Man: No Way Home (NEW)

15. Drive My Car (NEW)

DROPPED
C’mon C’mon (-6)
House of Gucci (-3)
Spencer (-1)

Best Director

1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (-)

2. Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (+4)

3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune (-1)

4. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (-)

5. Ryûsuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car (NEW)
   —

6. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (-3)

7. Siân Heder, CODA (NEW)

8. Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter (NEW)

9. Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up (-2)

10. Guillermo del Toro, Nightmare Alley (-2)

DROPPED
Asghar Farhadi, A Hero (-6)
Pedro Almodovar, Parallel Mothers (-2)
Reinaldo Marcus Green, King Richard (-1)

Best Actress

1. Kristen Stewart, Spencer (-)

2. Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (+2)

3. Lady Gaga, House of Gucci (+4)

4. Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos (-2)

5. Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (-)
   —

6. Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza (+4)

7. Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (+1)

8. Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (NEW)

9. Emilia Jones, CODA (NEW)

10. Jennifer Hudson, Respect (-4)

DROPPED
Frances McDormand, The Tragedy of Macbeth (-8)
Tessa Thompson, Passing (-2)

Best Actor

1. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog (+2)

2. Will Smith, King Richard (-1)

3. Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth (-1)

4. Andrew Garfield, tick, tick…BOOM! (+2)

5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up (-)

   —

6. Joaquin Phoenix, C’mon C’mon (-2)

7. Nicolas Cage, Pig (NEW)

8. Clifton Collins, Jr., Jockey (-)

9. Cooper Hoffman, Licorice Pizza (-)

10. Peter Dinklage, Cyrano (-3)

DROPPED
Bradley Cooper, Nightmare Alley (-1)

Best Supporting Actress

1. Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog (-)

2. Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (+6)

3. Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (+2)

4. Caitriona Balfe, Belfast (-2)

5. Judi Dench, Belfast (-2)
   —

6. Rita Moreno, West Side Story (+1)

7. Ruth Negga, Passing (+2)

8. Marlee Matlin, CODA (-4)

9. Ann Dowd, Mass (+1)

10. Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up (-4)

Best Supporting Actor

1. Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog (NEW)

2. Troy Kotsur, CODA (+5)

3. Ciaran Hinds, Belfast (-)

4. Jamie Dornan, Belfast (-3)

5. J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos (+4)
   —

6. Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza (-2)

7. Jared Leto, House of Gucci (-5)

8. Mike Faist, West Side Story (NEW)

9. Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar (-1)

10. Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog (NEW)

DROPPED
Richard Jenkins, The Humans (-6)
Woody Norman, C’mon C’mon (-4)
Jon Bernthal, King Richard (-1)

Best Original Screenplay

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (+1)

2. Kenneth Branagh, Belfast (-1)

3. Adam McKay and David Sirota, Don’t Look Up (-)

4. Zach Baylin, King Richard (+2)

5. Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola, Hugo Guinness and Jason Schwartzman, The French Dispatch (+3)
   —

6. Mike Mills, C’mon C’mon (-2)

7. Asghar Farhadi, A Hero (-2)

8. Aaron Sorkin, Being the Ricardos (-1)

9. Pedro Almodovar, Parallel Mothers (-)

10. Paolo Sorrentino, The Hand of God (-)

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (-)

2. Tony Kushner, West Side Story (+3)

3. Sian Heder, CODA (-1)

4. Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter (-)

5. Ryusuke Hamaguchi and Takamasa Oe, Drive My Car (+3)
   —

6. Joel Coen, The Tragedy of Macbeth (-3)

7. Steven Levenson, tick, tick... BOOM! (NEW)

8. Rebecca Hall, Passing (-2)

9. Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve and Eric Roth, Dune (-2)

10. Guillermo del Toro and Kim Morgan, Nightmare Alley (-)

DROPPED
Stephen Karam, The Humans (-2)

Best Animated Feature

1. Encanto (-)

2. Flee (+1)

3. Luca (-1)

4. Raya and the Last Dragon (-)

5. Belle (-)
   —

6. Vivo (-)

7. The Summit of the Gods (-)

8. The Mitchells vs. the Machines (-)

9. Sing 2 (NEW)

10. Ron’s Gone Wrong (-1)

DROPPED
Where Is Anne Frank (-1)

Best Animated Short Film

1. Affairs of the Art

2. Bestia

3. Mum Is Pouring Rain

4. Step into the River

5. The Musician
   —

6. Namoo

7. The Windshield Wiper

8. Us Again

9. Robin Robin

10. Souvenir Souvenir

Best Documentary Feature

1. Flee (+1)

2. Summer Of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised) (+4)

3. The Rescue (-1)

4. The First Wave (+3)

5. Faya Dayi (-2)
   —

6. Writing with Fire (NEW)

7. Simple as Water (NEW)

8. Procession (-)

9. Billie Eilish: The World’s a Little Blurry (NEW)

10. Attica (-1)

DROPPED
The Lost Leonardo (-7)
Becoming Cousteau (-6)
Ailey (-1)

Best Documentary Short Subject

1. Águilas

2. Three Songs for Benazir

3. A Broken House

4. Lynching Postcards: “Token of a Great Day”

5. Sophie & the Baron
   —

6. Lead Me Home

7. Day of Rage

8. Camp Confidential: America’s Secret Nazis

9. The Queen of Basketball

10. The Facility

Best International Feature

1. Drive My Car (Japan) (+3)

2. Flee (Denmark) (-)

3. A Hero (Iran) (-2)

4. The Hand of God (Italy) (-1)

5. The Worst Person in the World (Norway) (-)
   —

6. Compartment No. 6 (Finland) (-)

7. I’m Your Man (Germany) (+3)

8. Lamb (Iceland) (NEW)

9. Prayers for the Stolen (Mexico) (-1)

10. Playground (Belgium) (NEW)

DROPPED
Titane (France) (-4)
Memoria (Colombia) (-2)

Best Live Action Short Film

1. The Criminals

2. Les Grandes Claques

3. Frimas

4. Stenofonen

5. You’re Dead Hélène
   —

6. The Long Goodbye

7. Censor of Dreams

8. The Dress

9. Distances

10. Under the Heavens

Best Cinematography

1. Greig Fraser, Dune (-)

2. Ari Wegner, The Power of the Dog (+1)

3. Janusz Kaminski, West Side Story (+2)

4. Haris Zambarloukos, Belfast (-2)

5. Bruno Delbonnel, The Tragedy of Macbeth (-1)
   —

6. Dan Laustsen, Nightmare Alley (-)

7. Paul Thomas Anderson and Michael Bauman, Licorice Pizza (+1)

8. Claire Mithon, Spencer (+1)

9. Robert Yeoman, The French Dispatch (-2)

10. Eduard Grau, Passing (-)

Best Costume Design

1. Paul Tazewell, West Side Story (+3)

2. Janty Yates, House of Gucci (-1)

3. Jacqueline Durran, Spencer (-)

4. Luis Sequeira, Nightmare Alley (+1)

5. Jenny Beavan, Cruella (-3)
   —

6. Jacqueline West, Dune (-)

7. Milena Canonero, The French Dispatch (-)

8. Massimo Cantini Parrini, Cyrano (-)

9. Susan Lyall, Being the Ricardos (-)

10. Kirsty Cameron, The Power of the Dog (NEW)

DROPPED
Michael O’Connor, The Electrical Life of Louis Wain (-1)

Best Film Editing

1. Joe Walker, Dune (-)

2. Peter Sciberras, The Power of the Dog (-)

3. Sarah Broshar and Michael Kahn, West Side Story (+3)

4. Andy Jurgensen, Licorice Pizza (+1)

5. Úna Ní Dhonghaíle, Belfast (-2)
   —

6. Tom Cross and Elliot Graham, No Time to Die (+4)

7. Pamela Martin, King Richard (-)

8. Hank Corwin, Don’t Look Up (-4)

9. Myron Kerstein and Andrew Weisblum, tick, tick... BOOM! (NEW)

10. Geraud Brisson, CODA (NEW)

DROPPED
Joseph Jett Sally, The Matrix Resurrections (-3)
Cam McLauchlin, Nightmare Alley (-2)

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

1. Jana Carboni, Giuliano Mariano and Göran Lundström, House of Gucci (-)

2. Cliona Furey and Jo-Ann MacNeil, Nightmare Alley (+5)

3. Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram and Justin Raleigh, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (+2)

4. Donald Mowat, Love Larson and Eva von Bahr, Dune (-1)

5. Nadia Stacey and Carolyn Cousins, Cruella (+3)
   —

6. Heba Thorisdottir and Janine Thompson, The Suicide Squad (+2)

7. Vera Steimberg, Merc Arceneaux, Stacey Morris and Carla Farmer, Coming 2 America (NEW)

8. Judy Chin and Kay Georgiou, West Side Story (NEW)

9. Sian Miller and Alessandro Bertolazzi, Cyrano (NEW)

10. Daniel Phillips, No Time to Die (NEW)

DROPPED
Frances Hannon, The French Dispatch (-7)
Teresa Hill and Ana Lozano, Being the Ricardos (-4)
The team from Spencer (-2)
Vickie Lang, Annette Field and Donald McInnes, The Electrical Life of Louis Wain (-1)

Best Original Score

1. Jonny Greenwood, The Power of the Dog (+1)

2. Hans Zimmer, Dune (-1)

3. Jonny Greenwood, Spencer (+1)

4. Alexandre Desplat, The French Dispatch (+1)

5. Germaine Franco, Encanto (NEW)
   —

6. Carter Burwell, The Tragedy of Macbeth (+1)

7. Alberto Iglesias, Parallel Mothers (NEW)

8. Daniel Pemberton, Being the Ricardos (+1)

9. Nicholas Britell, Don’t Look Up (-3)

10. Kris Bowers, King Richard (-)

DROPPED
Nathan Johnson, Nightmare Alley (-7)
The National, Cyrano (-3)

Best Original Song

1. “No Time to Die,” No Time to Die (-)

2. “Dos Oruguitas,” Encanto (NEW)

3. “Down to Joy,” Belfast (+1)

4. “Be Alive,” King Richard (-1)

5. “Here I Am (Singing My Way Home),” Respect (-)
   —

6. “Beyond the Shore,” CODA (-)

7. “So May We Start,” Annette (NEW)

8. “Somehow You Do,” Four Good Days (+2)

9. “Just Look Up,” Don’t Look Up (NEW)

10. “Right Where I Belong,” Brian Wilson: Long Promised Road (NEW)

DROPPED
“Colombia, Mi Encanto,” Encanto (-9)
“At the Automat,” The Automat (-4)
“Every Letter,” Cyrano (-3)
“Guns Go Bang,” The Harder They Fall (-2)

Best Production Design

1. Patrice Vermette, Richard Roberts and Zsuzsanna Sipos, Dune (-)

2. Adam Stockhausen and Rena DeAngelo, West Side Story (+2)

3. Tamara Deverell and Shane Vieau, Nightmare Alley (-)

4. Grant Major and Amber Richards, The Power of the Dog (+3)

5. Adam Stockhausen and Rena DeAngelo, The French Dispatch (-3)
   —

6. Arthur Max and Letizia Santucci, House of Gucci (-1)

7. Guy Hendrix-Dyas and Yesim Zolan, Spencer (+1)

8. Stefan Dechant and Nancy Haigh, The Tragedy of Macbeth (+1)

9. Jon Hutman and Ellen Brill, Being the Ricardos (-3)

10. Jim Clay and Claire Nia Richards, Belfast (-)

Best Sound

1. Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Theo Green, Doug Hemphill and Ron Bartlett, Dune (-)

2. Gary Rydstrom, Brian Chumney, Andy Nelson, Tod Maitland and Shawn Murphy, West Side Story (-)

3. Robert Mackenzie, Richard Flynn, Leah Katz, Tara Webb and Dave Whitehead, The Power of the Dog (NEW)

4. Willie Burton, Kevin O’Connell, Tony Lambert, Steven Ticknor and Vanessa Lapato, Spider-Man: No Way Home (NEW)

5. Simon Hayes, Oliver Tarney and Paul Massey, No Time to Die (+4)
   —

6. Paul Hsu and Todd A. Maitland, tick, tick...BOOM! (NEW)

7. Simon Chase, James Mather, Denise Yarde and Niv Adris, Belfast (-4)

8. Ethan Van Der Ryn, Erik Aadahl, Michael Barosky and Brandon Proctor, A Quiet Place Part II (-2)

9. Barry O’Sullivan, Dana A. Davis, Stephanie Flack, Matthias Lempert and Lars Ginzel, The Matrix Resurrections (-6)

10. Julian Slater, Dan Morgan, Colin Nicolson, Tim Cavagin, Last Night in Soho (NEW)

DROPPED
Oliver Tarney, Paul Massey, David Giammarco, William Miller, Daniel Birch and Stéphanie Bucher, The Last Duel (-6)
Jared Detsikes, Martin Pinsonnault, Stéphane Bergeron and Alexandra Fehrman, CODA (-4)
Nathan Robitaille, Jill Purdy, Christian Cooke, Brad Zoern and Greg Chapman, Nightmare Alley (-3)
The team from Don’t Look Up (-1)

Best Visual Effects

1. Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor and Gerd Nefzer, Dune (-)

2. Kelly Port, Chris Waegner, Scott Edelstein and Dan Sudick, Spider-Man: No Way Home (+1)

3. Dan Glass, Huw J Evans, Tom Debenham and J.D. Schwalm, The Matrix Resurrections (-1)

4. Christopher Townsend, Joe Farrell, Sean Walker, Dan Oliver, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings (-)

5. Swen Gillberg, Bryan Grill, Nikos Kalaitzidis and Dan Sudick, Free Guy (+1)
   —

6. Charlie Noble and Chris Corbould, No Time to Die (+3)

7. Stephane Ceretti, Daniele Bigi, Matt Aitken and Neil Corbould, Eternals (+3)

8. John Desjardin, Bryan Hirota, Kevin Smith and Mike Meinardus, Godzilla vs. Kong (NEW)

9. Alessandro Ongaro, Sheena Duggal, Aharon Bourland and Pier Lefebvre, Ghostbusters: Afterlife (NEW)

10. Geoffrey Baumann, Dave Hodgins, Craig Hammack and Paul Corbould, Black Widow (NEW)

DROPPED
The team from Finch (-6)
The team from Nightmare Alley (-4)
The team from Don’t Look Up (-3)